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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After another crazy day – the betting movements

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    Raab is the German name for the Hungarian city of Győr. That’s the most interesting thing I can think of about that.

    I mentioned that on PB months ago :)
    In which case I shall mention that Győr is a charming city should anyone find themselves in the area.
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    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    Yes. We'll probably rejoin in a few years. But we need to leave first.
    Possibly, if there's a soft Brexit that leaves us tied to most of the EU's structures.

    If, however, it's a clean break then that's it. The EU has never been popular with most of us. The relationship with it was always transactional, not emotionally committed.

    Rejoining would have all the appeal of republicanism: notionally appealing to a quarter or even a third of the electorate at any one time, but in practice a niche obsession for a few and a total irrelevance for everybody else.

    Getting out has been so divisive and such a monumental pain in the arse that generations may pass before a significant proportion of public opinion grows genuinely enthusiastic about going back in. If that ever happens at all, and assuming that the EU itself lasts that long.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2018

    Does Brady accept email?

    Tom Newton Dunn saying Graham Brady has gone home and has not got 48 letters
    Crickey I am really popular this year, look at all those Christmas Cards...

    image
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    That Cabinet Minister is lying. When they have for weeks had people leak about their plan B's for Brexit, about their own leadership campaigns, and one is on the front page 'rebuking' the PM, some of them are going to vote against her. They know that, we know that, but they still feel the need to pretend loyalty.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Tom Newton Dunn now on Sky - letters not in


    47.99999999999999999999999999999999999

    As I have reminded over excitable PBers several times.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    That is more than made up for by the "Can't be doing with that" "Can't be arsed to Brexit vote"



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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    It would be ironic if May were ousted now, and the Commons ultimately came round to approving her deal as the least unacceptable way of avoiding No Deal.
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    Is 12% the largest Remain lead registered so far ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Chris said:

    It would be ironic if May were ousted now, and the Commons ultimately came round to approving her deal as the least unacceptable way of avoiding No Deal.

    Another hilarious outcome. One reason she should not quit the Commons, just in case, so she can see it firsthand (though I severely doubt it will happen that way).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    LOL.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,728
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Looks like we on for a battle for the leadership now:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1072620579352653825

    Well, I guess we know one Cabinet Minister who is not voting for May in the confidence vote. Jumping the gun a little there, mate.
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks resigned - she failed to get support from Europe, so it's the end is how I read it.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks resigned - she failed to get support from Europe, so it's the end is how I read it.
    I

    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    I’m going to regret this tweet in the morning.

    https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1072613241744957440?s=21

    Another PB Liverpool fan who does not come from Merseyside
    *puts hand up* One here as well.
    Glory grabbing is strong on PB.

    DavidL supports Man Utd.

    He’s Scottish.
    I have supported Man Utd since 1954 but then I was born within 5 miles of the ground
    Sadly, you are in a minority. It would seem that most PBers are glory grabbers, choosing big clubs over their hometown club.
    My town's football ground was demolished when I was a boy and there was no team for years to support in any case. Should I have supported clubs in the professional leagues who were 40+ miles away? That's not hometown.

    Also, who cares?
    Yep. I care. Smaller clubs will die out if people just support the Big Five, regardless of where they come from.

    But glory grabbing is the norm nowadays.
    Leicester City! supported them in League One and when Wes Morgan lifted the PL trophy.

    The glory!
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    Scott_P said:
    I suspect the EU27 might also want No Deal _not_ to be an option.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Eh? A) Not the least bit surprising and b) we can revoke ourselves anyway.

    Maybe it is late and I am getting lost.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    That is like a lot of SUs at top rank unis these days...where as the shit ones are going bust.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Have the ERG blown their wad? Again!
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    Cyclefree said:

    Theresa May has had her chips. I expect the time is coming soon enough when we will look back fondly on the halcyon days of her premiership.

    The way we're going that will be in about 6 weeks time.
    I’ve pointed out ever since the referendum result that Britain has entered a long term serious decline. It was one of those inflexion point moments. It has a long way to run yet.
    Argentina 2.0
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    Scott_P said:

    Have the ERG blown their wad? Again!

    I thought it was supposedly cabinet ministers leaking to the media?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    Have the ERG blown their wad? Again!

    I wonder whether Brady would call the MPs who've written letters to check they're still current, because some of them were sent in a long time ago. One MP sent one in more than a year ago IIRC.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Looks like we on for a battle for the leadership now:

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1072620579352653825

    Well, I guess we know one Cabinet Minister who is not voting for May in the confidence vote. Jumping the gun a little there, mate.
    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks resigned - she failed to get support from Europe, so it's the end is how I read it.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks resigned - she failed to get support from Europe, so it's the end is how I read it.
    I

    Anazina said:

    kle4 said:

    Anazina said:

    I’m going to regret this tweet in the morning.

    https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1072613241744957440?s=21

    Another PB Liverpool fan who does not come from Merseyside
    *puts hand up* One here as well.
    Glory grabbing is strong on PB.

    DavidL supports Man Utd.

    He’s Scottish.
    I have supported Man Utd since 1954 but then I was born within 5 miles of the ground
    Sadly, you are in a minority. It would seem that most PBers are glory grabbers, choosing big clubs over their hometown club.
    My town's football ground was demolished when I was a boy and there was no team for years to support in any case. Should I have supported clubs in the professional leagues who were 40+ miles away? That's not hometown.

    Also, who cares?
    Yep. I care. Smaller clubs will die out if people just support the Big Five, regardless of where they come from.

    But glory grabbing is the norm nowadays.
    Then i repeat my question - there was no club in my hometown, not in any type of league, who in your estimation should I be expected to reasonably support? How far away is acceptable?
    Well? You have declared it unacceptable to not support the home team, so how far away is allowed under your rules if there is no such team?

    If you are going to get on a moral high horse about this, surely you need to provide further instruction, else what is morally acceptable?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,293
    I went to College Green today and it only strengthened my support for the deal. The remainaics there were a ragbag of off-grid eccentrics, but the leavers, oh my god the leavers, they were something else, overtly racist almost to a (wo)man, half of them in Trump regalia, some of them in ridiculous little high viz yellow vests would you believe, all of them quite astonishingly thick and screaming unpleasant primitive sentiments at the top of their leery uneducated voices. These vulgar low rent sub-optimals cannot be allowed to feel that they have won. Therefore the WTO 'clean' Brexit simply must not happen. The ensuing feel good glow and sense of validation of such a grisly bunch does not bear thinking about. Likewise a No Brexit would (to quote BJ) put a tiger in their tank in a different way. The grievance would fuel them up to make a right old nuisance of themselves for ages. Therefore it must be the deal. The deal would mean they feel a bit cheesed off, sure they would, but they would soon lose interest and return to scratching their armpits once we are out and negotiating the FTA. I’m starting to feel pretty damn passionate about this now. I like the Irish backstop. Fact, I love it. I love everything about the deal. It IS as it turns out perfect. Viva la WDA! So come on you parliament. Come on you tories. Ditch the Maybot, if necessary, and then get this thing or something close to it ratified pronto!
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    I would've thought one thing that absolutely all of us could agree on is that opinion polls have been revealed to be of somewhat limited predictive value.
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    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    Not sure about that. This from YouGov at the weekend implies a similar differential.

    https://amp-reddit-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/a4wurf/uk_yougov_poll_remain_54_8_leave_without_deal_28/?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQJCAEoAVgBgAEB
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    bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Raab? Really?

    The sad truth is that Theresa has been a hard worker. Very diligent. Very focused. Working long hours. And, as a result has not spent enough time in the pub throughout her career making friends that will rally round when she needs them. And it's in the pub where a lot of politics gets done. She's beaten herself.

    Whereas Raab is lazy, not a master of detail and not at all focused: He's been a housing minister thats hated housing, for example. But one area where he does have similarities with Theresa is that he has also not spent any time in the bar either. So he's even worse at politics.

    He's even more of a loner than Theresa. Aloof. Out of Touch. No friends in Parliament who'd cross the road to help him.

    And, if the Brexiteers think he's their Great White Hope who can get them to skip a generation then it proves they're even more deluded than ever. A true case of out of the frying pan and into the fire for GB plc.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    AndyJS said:

    Scott_P said:

    Have the ERG blown their wad? Again!

    I wonder whether Brady would call the MPs who've written letters to check they're still current, because some of them were sent in a long time ago. One MP sent one in more than a year ago IIRC.
    I cannot fathom how 48 could not have been reached. Is the most likely explanation simply that a bunch have come in this evening and Brady will count them up in the morning? And he's prepared to meet the PM since based on what he's been told he is very confident the morning will show 48 are there?
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Fox

    I have never grasped this opprobrium among East Midlands clubs for each other. Everyone in the region (including half of Nottingham) hates Forest, probably because they won two European cups several decades ago.

    But at least people from our neck of the woods support their local club.

    There are people on here from Sheffield (two clubs to choose from) who support ... Liverpool.

    Glory grabbers.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    Since early September I think all the polls have shown a clear Remain lead. Mostly Leave voters switching to Don't Know rather than Remain however.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    In NC9 news - election officials were in on it

    https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1072612500057796610?s=19

    And there is going to be a whole ne vote starting with a GOP primary

    https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1072613810702336001?s=19
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    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Is 12% the largest Remain lead registered so far ?

    There was a small-sample ORB poll a month before the referendum with R+13. This is Remain's biggest lead in post-referendum polling, I think.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,135
    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    It would be ironic if May were ousted now, and the Commons ultimately came round to approving her deal as the least unacceptable way of avoiding No Deal.

    Another hilarious outcome. One reason she should not quit the Commons, just in case, so she can see it firsthand (though I severely doubt it will happen that way).
    I think the fact that it's hard to imagine is a measure of how irrationally MPs are acting.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Chris said:

    It would be ironic if May were ousted now, and the Commons ultimately came round to approving her deal as the least unacceptable way of avoiding No Deal.

    After all the shit that has gone down, her deal would have to be sponsored by a Leaver. Rebadged, the same deal essentially, but a new PM getting Leavers onside. May has patently failed with that.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Indeed. Harris would do well to cease tweeting while pissed.
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    Cyclefree said:

    Theresa May has had her chips. I expect the time is coming soon enough when we will look back fondly on the halcyon days of her premiership.

    The way we're going that will be in about 6 weeks time.
    I’ve pointed out ever since the referendum result that Britain has entered a long term serious decline. It was one of those inflexion point moments. It has a long way to run yet.
    Argentina 2.0
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/13/dont-laugh-at-us-argentina/
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    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    I hardly went to Imperial College Union as an undergrad - I just spent my spare Wednesday afternoons travelling around the Tube and rail network in London - only Zones 1 to 4, mind! Only ventured out to Zone 6 during my PhD :)
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    That is like a lot of SUs at top rank unis these days...where as the shit ones are going bust.
    Yes. And of course we know why. Student loans, and foreign students. In my day we were actually PAID by the government to go to university. It seems insane now. And we got extra money (or I did) if we were deemed poor. And then we got to live in London W1, for almost no money.

    The privileges we enioyed were bonkers, seen from the perspective of today. If you're payiong tens of grand for a good education, you drink less, and study more, and imbibe coffee.
    And it is also why all the union stuff is even more dominated by the the mouthy hard left nutter element.

    In my experience, the vast majority of students just head down, plough through, want to know what they need to do to get the 2:1 and when is the closing dates for grad schemes. They don't want to get involved in making sure a comedian doesn't have ableism in their act.
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    FF43 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    Since early September I think all the polls have shown a clear Remain lead. Mostly Leave voters switching to Don't Know rather than Remain however.
    The trend definitely seems to be remain's friend (for now at least). Suspect it will continue in that direction from now until the end of March if the EU keep their mouth shut and don't antagonise UK public opinion....
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    Other than the opening hours that sounds like SOAS in my day. Went to UCL bar ONCE.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2018
    Drutt said:

    Is 12% the largest Remain lead registered so far ?

    There was a small-sample ORB poll a month before the referendum with R+13. This is Remain's biggest lead in post-referendum polling, I think.
    Thanks. I was thinking of the post-referendum ones, but it's interesting the extent to which it nearly matches that pre-referendum range , too.
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    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Anazina said:

    Fox

    I have never grasped this opprobrium among East Midlands clubs for each other. Everyone in the region (including half of Nottingham) hates Forest, probably because they won two European cups several decades ago.

    But at least people from our neck of the woods support their local club.

    There are people on here from Sheffield (two clubs to choose from) who support ... Liverpool.

    Glory grabbers.

    Derby and Forest rivalry was already brutal before Clough went from Derby to Forest and gave us those two stars on the shirt.
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    The BMG figures are 52% Remain 40% Leave. So after repercentaging and rounding up for impact it's 57% Remain, 43% Leave.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Scott_P said:
    Very well placed sources were telling us the vote was going ahead tonight. Until, moments later, it wasn't.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    You would have to be mad to want to be PM now. Anyone who wants the job should not be allowed near it.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FF43 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    Since early September I think all the polls have shown a clear Remain lead. Mostly Leave voters switching to Don't Know rather than Remain however.
    This is from about 6 weeks ago:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Oct 29

    UK, Deltapoll poll:

    EU membership ref.

    Remain: 50% (nc)
    Leave: 50% (nc)

    Field work: 24/10/18 – 26/10/18
    Sample size: 1,017"
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited December 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Very well placed sources were telling us the vote was going ahead tonight. Until, moments later, it wasn't.
    What’s the timeline for a VONC?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Scott_P said:
    Very well placed sources were telling us the vote was going ahead tonight. Until, moments later, it wasn't.
    Technically the Brady comment does not mean the letters are not in. He may have seen her already.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Fox

    I have never grasped this opprobrium among East Midlands clubs for each other. Everyone in the region (including half of Nottingham) hates Forest, probably because they won two European cups several decades ago.

    But at least people from our neck of the woods support their local club.

    There are people on here from Sheffield (two clubs to choose from) who support ... Liverpool.

    Glory grabbers.

    Derby and Forest rivalry was already brutal before Clough went from Derby to Forest and gave us those two stars on the shirt.
    Forest-Derby is different ;-)
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    AndyJS said:

    FF43 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    This catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
    There is absolutely no evidence of this in the polls. Sorry.

    Unless you can provide a link? The nation is evenly split, as ever.

    Indeed my understanding of human nature thinks a swing to Leave is as likely as the opposite, as the bloody minded Brits think Fuck You to the EU - and the sneering posho Remainers.
    I thought the link attached - with a 12 point remain lead did that?!
    Other recent polls have shown 50/50.
    Since early September I think all the polls have shown a clear Remain lead. Mostly Leave voters switching to Don't Know rather than Remain however.
    This is from about 6 weeks ago:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    Oct 29

    UK, Deltapoll poll:

    EU membership ref.

    Remain: 50% (nc)
    Leave: 50% (nc)

    Field work: 24/10/18 – 26/10/18
    Sample size: 1,017"
    I think the key words are "six weeks ago"......
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,293
    SeanT said:

    lol. Total shite but beautifully expressed. Bravo.

    :-)

    Straight eyes and ears reportage that was, I assure you. It's quite a scene down there. Might go back tomorrow!
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    I can’t believe you fell for it again.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:

    Earl Brady of Shreding Green it is then.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    Coldplay have made precisely one great song (Fix You), a handful of ok aongs and a large pile of dirge.
  • Options
    kle4 said:
    I'm a bit rusty on this but I believe the SoS decision on whether a Border Poll is called after the statutory test is met is judicable. So either side could take it to the Supreme Court. Or if it decided to hold one a government could just pass fresh primary legislation to be sure. MacDonald will be looking at last week's #Unityref polling in light of a No Deal Brexit. Though polling on strong hypotheticals is suboptimal in my view. But if that polling is remotely correct the Border Poll test set out in international law would be met within months.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    The alternate version of that video is an homage to Depeche Mode's video for Enjoy the Silence

  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    That is like a lot of SUs at top rank unis these days...where as the shit ones are going bust.
    Yes. And of course we know why. Student loans, and foreign students. In my day we were actually PAID by the government to go to university. It seems insane now. And we got extra money (or I did) if we were deemed poor. And then we got to live in London W1, for almost no money.

    The privileges we enioyed were bonkers, seen from the perspective of today. If you're payiong tens of grand for a good education, you drink less, and study more, and imbibe coffee.

    Yep, but you pay a shedload if tax now. I do, too. I reckon the state’s investment in us has been repaid. I suspect that university students from the age of grants, the dole in the summer and housing benefit are huge net contributors to the exchequer.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    When my,little newborn was jaundiced, Coldplay got me through all those trips to the hospital.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited December 2018
    It’s on! (If Reuters isn’t a fake news peddler)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    Coldplay have made precisely one great song (Fix You), a handful of ok aongs and a large pile of dirge.
    But their large pile of dirge is really a small molehill compared to the Radiohead pile of dirge....
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kVxpsi1XQ4
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    Andrew said:

    Scott_P said:

    Earl Brady of Shreding Green it is then.
    Means he will have seen her well before PMQs. 7.00 am meeting?
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,317
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    Nah. Difference is that ABBA, the Bee Gees were superb musicians working in a low-brow genre; Coldplay work in a high-brow genre but they’re shit musicians.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Scott_P said:
    Very well placed sources were telling us the vote was going ahead tonight. Until, moments later, it wasn't.
    I heard on Sky news that the earliest was tomorrow night.

    But the guy saying that did say the letters were in already.....
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    Coldplay have made precisely one great song (Fix You), a handful of ok aongs and a large pile of dirge.
    And an even larger pile of cash.

    I believe they split the royalties equally so I have to say being the drummer on Coldplay must be a crushy gig. Mega wealthy without even most Coldplay fans being able to recognise you if you pop down Waitrose.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Now would be the perfect time for Labour to call a VONC.
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    Coldplay have made precisely one great song (Fix You), a handful of ok aongs and a large pile of dirge.
    And an even larger pile of cash.

    I believe they split the royalties equally so I have to say being the drummer on Coldplay must be a crushy gig. Mega wealthy without even most Coldplay fans being able to recognise you if you pop down Waitrose.
    The drummer of Coldplay is the looker.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RobD said:

    It’s on! (If Reuters isn’t a fake news peddler)

    Their story seems to be based solely on Laura Kuenssberg, who was herself just recycling the same gossip from "sources" as everyone else.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:
    But the Irish government has apparently shot that down already.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220

    Cyclefree said:

    Theresa May has had her chips. I expect the time is coming soon enough when we will look back fondly on the halcyon days of her premiership.

    The way we're going that will be in about 6 weeks time.
    I’ve pointed out ever since the referendum result that Britain has entered a long term serious decline. It was one of those inflexion point moments. It has a long way to run yet.
    I remember that thread header. I fear you are right. But I still hope - for my childrens’ sake - that decent people can do something so that it need not be so.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Jonathan said:

    Now would be the perfect time for Labour to call a VONC.

    I doubt any of the letter-writers would vote for that!
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As some have noted, if "the Palace" really have been contacted, that implies resignation, whether the letters are in or not...
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LOL, Liz is not going to be happy if her Christmas is ruined. Fingers crossed she unilatelly dismisses Parliament and calls an election herself in a fit of pique.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now would be the perfect time for Labour to call a VONC.

    I doubt any of the letter-writers would vote for that!
    The Commons would vote before the Tory MPs. They would force the Tory MPs to publicly state confidence just before they vote the other way privately. Not a good look.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:

    As some have noted, if "the Palace" really have been contacted, that implies resignation, whether the letters are in or not...

    Might be to check availability if rings need to be kissed, etc. In the event the vote fails.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Jonathan said:

    You would have to be mad to want to be PM now. Anyone who wants the job should not be allowed near it.

    Same like usual.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    As some have noted, if "the Palace" really have been contacted, that implies resignation, whether the letters are in or not...

    That’s nonsense. The conversations might simply have been procedural.
  • Options
    To ways to square tonight's contradictory reports. The letters aren't in. The letters are in and Brady isn't seeing May tomorrow afternoon because he's already seen her. The briefing about the Cabinet Office and the Palace being in contact suggests the later but who knows ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now would be the perfect time for Labour to call a VONC.

    I doubt any of the letter-writers would vote for that!
    The Commons would vote before the Tory MPs. They would force the Tory MPs to publicly state confidence just before they vote the other way privately. Not a good look.
    They are two different entities.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    In hindsight, London 2012 was Peak Britain
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, Liz is not going to be happy if her Christmas is ruined. Fingers crossed she unilatelly dismisses Parliament and calls an election herself in a fit of pique.
    If ever there were a time for a political Queen's speech it's this Christmas...
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Now would be the perfect time for Labour to call a VONC.

    I doubt any of the letter-writers would vote for that!
    The Commons would vote before the Tory MPs. They would force the Tory MPs to publicly state confidence just before they vote the other way privately. Not a good look.
    They are two different entities.
    I know. But this would be hugely messy. With it jus to see what they would do.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,899
    Danny565 said:

    RobD said:

    It’s on! (If Reuters isn’t a fake news peddler)

    Their story seems to be based solely on Laura Kuenssberg, who was herself just recycling the same gossip from "sources" as everyone else.
    Echo chamber
  • Options

    To ways to square tonight's contradictory reports. The letters aren't in. The letters are in and Brady isn't seeing May tomorrow afternoon because he's already seen her. The briefing about the Cabinet Office and the Palace being in contact suggests the later but who knows ?

    Or some have withdrawn their letters.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, Liz is not going to be happy if her Christmas is ruined. Fingers crossed she unilatelly dismisses Parliament and calls an election herself in a fit of pique.
    Would that she could.
  • Options
    Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Danny565 said:

    LOL, Liz is not going to be happy if her Christmas is ruined. Fingers crossed she unilatelly dismisses Parliament and calls an election herself in a fit of pique.
    FTPA took that option away from her.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited December 2018

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig

    SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.

    And WTF is "ableism" ?

    My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
    Used to have the most plentiful dealers, though.
    Nah, not in my day. UCL (my uni Union) was the place to score anything you wanted. Students would come down from Oxford just for the parties.

    The decadence of it is quite extraordinary, looking back. The bar was open from 10am to 11pm and always full, and noisy, and drunk, and throughout the day all kinds of drugs were openly sold, from dope to acid to speed and coke (and smack if you asked quietly)

    I went back to UCL a couple of years ago. The union is now posh, gleaming, quiet and full of earnest Asian students drinking coffee.

    Sad.
    That is like a lot of SUs at top rank unis these days...where as the shit ones are going bust.
    Yes. And of course we know why. Student loans, and foreign students. In my day we were actually PAID by the government to go to university. It seems insane now. And we got extra money (or I did) if we were deemed poor. And then we got to live in London W1, for almost no money.

    The privileges we enioyed were bonkers, seen from the perspective of today. If you're payiong tens of grand for a good education, you drink less, and study more, and imbibe coffee.

    Yep, but you pay a shedload if tax now. I do, too. I reckon the state’s investment in us has been repaid. I suspect that university students from the age of grants, the dole in the summer and housing benefit are huge net contributors to the exche
    Agreed. I’m a GenX grant bludger who now pays a huge chunk in.
    Jonathan said:

    When my,little newborn was jaundiced, Coldplay got me through all those trips to the hospital.

    Almost too subtle.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited December 2018

    To ways to square tonight's contradictory reports. The letters aren't in. The letters are in and Brady isn't seeing May tomorrow afternoon because he's already seen her. The briefing about the Cabinet Office and the Palace being in contact suggests the later but who knows ?

    Or some have withdrawn their letters.
    Why would they do that? Yes, a Tory contest that takes time is hardly something we can afford right now, but May as PM is also achieving nothing, why get cold feet about your letter now if you are then? That makes as little sense as judging people for not supporting their hometown, without telling them how far afield they are permitted to support a team.
This discussion has been closed.