politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rum
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According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.Black_Rook said:
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.kle4 said:
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.IanB2 said:
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Heidi Allen for PM.0 -
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainerskle4 said:
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.Benpointer said:
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.kle4 said:Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
What is the view now?
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible0 -
I personally don't buy it will be like the zombie apocalypse, as you say with deals for things like air travel done.SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
However, I can see issues / disruptions / changes to the way big businesses operate, which cause price rises and it is easy for Jezza to blame that on the Tories (and chuck in absolutely anything else that is a problem in the country).0 -
I’m not sulking and I support May’s deal. I also agree that the ERG would give morons a bad name. But we will pay a terrible price for this dishonesty.felix said:
I'm not even sure that is correct. Most individual remain MPs have been very open aout their beliefs. It is true that the vote should be respected but the main opponents of the deal on offer are those who were the keenest Leavers. It is the throwing out of the pram of their toys which may well thwart Brexit completely. The Brexit on offer accurately reflects the current divided state of the nation. Polling suggests only a minority want a no deal and there is no parliamentary majority for it either. Sulk as much as you like but we are where we are.DavidL said:
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.Benpointer said:
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...DavidL said:
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.Benpointer said:
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
999 was plagued with calls about KFC shortages a few short months ago.Luckyguy1983 said:
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?tottenhamWC said:
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.0 -
Politics lesson no. 1: The government gets held accountable for what happens under their watch, the opposition does not.Donny43 said:
This is why May (or a more agile successor) has to put the WA to a vote. There will be a majority of Tories in favour and Labour against.SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
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Plunging into:Luckyguy1983 said:
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?tottenhamWC said:
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
- Tariffs on trade with Europe
- No infrastructure to manage those tariffs
...would undoubtably be chaotic.0 -
A successor won't get elected if they say they'll put the WA to a vote.Donny43 said:
This is why May (or a more agile successor) has to put the WA to a vote. There will be a majority of Tories in favour and Labour against.SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
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At long bloody last if we’ve reached 48! I still think May will win but the margin could be perilously close and there’s little doubt she has lost the activists - in my leafy Surrey neck of the woods, I reckon the poor bloody infantry want her gone by 7 to 1! I honestly don’t know how I’d vote if I were an MP......at the very last minute, with pencil wavering in paw, I might just vote for her removal, and let the dice fall as they might.
I agree (for this evening anyway) with David H, that the likeliest outcome is No Deal.0 -
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
I love their chicken/ turkey Mexican stand off.dixiedean said:
999 was plagued with calls about KFC shortages a few short months ago.Luckyguy1983 said:
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?tottenhamWC said:
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.0 -
If there is a successor then they'll probably have come in promising to give renegotiation one last go (which won't work, of course,) and then switch to a managed No Deal. Hence Hard Brexit becomes even more likely.kle4 said:
It is all so pointless though if changes to the deal aren't possible and no deal will spook enough to flip. Whoever is leader won't make a difference then.Black_Rook said:
The rumours about the letters need to be true this time, and then a majority of Tory MPs have to vote to get rid of May.david_herdson said:We ought really to be talking about Next PM.
Two thoughts.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible.
2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
However, if these things do happen... with the usual disclaimers about my limited knowledge and cracked crystal ball, I'd be tending towards Javid, if he wants it. Although if he makes it to a run-off then it also depends heavily on whom the opponent is.
And what do we tell the EU while the Tories have a 'I'll promise the most' competition?
A change of Conservative leadership won't change the fundamentals. Either there's a big cross-party effort to halt No Deal, or it happens.0 -
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
I have been here since the Big Bang.SeanT said:
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.felix said:
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.Benpointer said:
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.kle4 said:
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.Jonathan said:May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Under several different names.0 -
I think the dishonesty stakes in this whole sorry mess are pretty evenly shared but the level of delusion is exceptionally high among the ERG group - it is a boil that needs to be lanced once and for all. It may mean decades of opposition for the Tory party but they've been there before.DavidL said:
I’m not sulking and I support May’s deal. I also agree that the ERG would give morons a bad name. But we will pay a terrible price for this dishonesty.felix said:
I'm not even sure that is correct. Most individual remain MPs have been very open aout their beliefs. It is true that the vote should be respected but the main opponents of the deal on offer are those who were the keenest Leavers. It is the throwing out of the pram of their toys which may well thwart Brexit completely. The Brexit on offer accurately reflects the current divided state of the nation. Polling suggests only a minority want a no deal and there is no parliamentary majority for it either. Sulk as much as you like but we are where we are.DavidL said:
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.Benpointer said:
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...DavidL said:
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.Benpointer said:
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."0 -
I don't think we'll notice a smidgen of difference if we leave without a deal on the morning it happens. The sun will rise in the east...0
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So a minority government led by an ' unelected ' PM trying to take the country through a managed No Deal ? Good Luck with that. If you think that's thus situations equilibrium point then Good Luck.0
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Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainerskle4 said:
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.Benpointer said:
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.kle4 said:Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
What is the view now?
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible0 -
Shedding light on the news that there would be a two year wait until season 12, the BBC’s entertainment correspondent Lizo Mzimba has said: 'Doctor Who has almost uniquely complex filming requirements and a lengthy post-production period.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6484125/Doctor-season-12-Reason-Jodie-Whittaker-wont-return-2020-REVEALED-BBC.html
Given the speed movies get turned around and the way Netflix operates with a successful franchise putting out a new season every year, not sure that excuse washes.0 -
How much of the damage done to the Tories was done by that shock, and how much was down to an accumulation of a slow drip, drip of sleaze scandals, a generalised sense that they'd been in power too long, a revived Labour Party, and negative equity?IanB2 said:
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Several months of half-empty supermarket shelves and sharply rising unemployment would be one thing. A fortnights' shortage of lettuce and cut flowers, on the other hand, would soon be forgotten.0 -
Lol - good one - in the good old days of course it was called the Toryassic party.SeanT said:
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.felix said:
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.Benpointer said:
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.kle4 said:
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.Jonathan said:May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.0 -
I bet thatv was some party....Anazina said:
I have been here since the Big Bang.SeanT said:
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.felix said:
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.Benpointer said:
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.kle4 said:
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.Jonathan said:May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Under several different names.0 -
Which is the whole idea. If the requisite proportion of the voters can't be assed to turn out and vote for the change in question, it doesn't happen.Donny43 said:
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
And Jezza would still ask questions about Maureen's number 87 bus route in Margate getting rerouted because of the Christmas market...Scott_P said:If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."0 -
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn upIanB2 said:
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainerskle4 said:
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.Benpointer said:
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.kle4 said:Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
What is the view now?
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible0 -
I now believe that whatever path we take it has to be legitimised by a referendum. Nothing will be settled otherwiseBenpointer said:
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.DavidL said:
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.Benpointer said:
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...DavidL said:
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.Benpointer said:
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.0 -
Latest Betfair odds to back next Con leader,Raab 6.8,Johnson 7.4,Javid 8.4,Gove 8.8,Hunt 9.2.Rudd 17,Davis 18.0
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This is a once in a lifetime chance for the ERG to deliver a hard as nails Brexit. As we saw the other day, the Government has considerable power in parliament over timetabling and so forth.YellowSubmarine said:So a minority government led by an ' unelected ' PM trying to take the country through a managed No Deal ? Good Luck with that. If you think that's thus situations equilibrium point then Good Luck.
"Tommorow !"0 -
A No Deal is quite likely but highly unlikely to end there. The contradictions of Brexit can only be resolved through crisis. No Deal is a new form of denial.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.0 -
She's really good, shame she got lumbered with such a shit series.FrancisUrquhart said:Shedding light on the news that there would be a two year wait until season 12, the BBC’s entertainment correspondent Lizo Mzimba has said: 'Doctor Who has almost uniquely complex filming requirements and a lengthy post-production period.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6484125/Doctor-season-12-Reason-Jodie-Whittaker-wont-return-2020-REVEALED-BBC.html
Given the speed movies get turned around and the way Netflix operates with a successful franchise putting out a new season every year, not sure that excuse washes.0 -
Right. Enough of politics (for half an hour anyway). Bradford City 4-3 Peterborough after 77 mins.0
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Ah. Just the opposite to Iraq then. The Tory Party have yet to really recover from the public blame.Donny43 said:
This is why May (or a more agile successor) has to put the WA to a vote. There will be a majority of Tories in favour and Labour against.SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Not only that. We are heading for recession shortly anyway. It is long overdue as it is. It will be blamed on Brexit anyway.IanB2 said:
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
She doesn't. Personally, I'd make Gove chancellor. No-one likes him but then that fits the chancellor's job quite well.SeanT said:
Javid is slight favourite, I think. He's also the least unpopular (they are all notably unpopular).david_herdson said:We ought really to be talking about Next PM.
Two thoughts.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible.
2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
Then he should make JRM Chancellor, to appease the ERG. I don't see how Hammond survives if TMay goes.0 -
I never said this wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Tories.kle4 said:
How can they achieve a consensus to deliver no deal? Yes it is default outcome for no deal to happen, but there's enough Tories who will block any preparations which might require legislation or, at that point, break ranks on a no confidence vote no matter the cost, to prevent them having a majority still surely?david_herdson said:We ought really to be talking about Next PM.
Two thoughts.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible.
2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?0 -
A referendum would only settle the situation if there were a vote for No Deal (and perhaps not even then, if Parliament can find the will and the means to overturn it.) Otherwise the battles will just rumble on and on.OllyT said:
I now believe that whatever path we take it has to be legitimised by a referendum. Nothing will be settled otherwiseBenpointer said:
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.DavidL said:
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.Benpointer said:
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...DavidL said:
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.Benpointer said:
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
The Scottish referendum settled nothing, after all.0 -
Remember to cancel the Direct Debit!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn upIanB2 said:
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainerskle4 said:
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.Benpointer said:
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.kle4 said:Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
What is the view now?
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible0 -
There's no contradiction of 'Brexit'. The contradiction was our spell as part of the EU, which is mercifully coming to an end.FF43 said:
A No Deal is quite likely but highly unlikely to end there. The contradictions of Brexit can only be resolved through crisis. No Deal is a new form of denial.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.0 -
... and lorries will be parked in Dover & Calais until the paperwork starts getting sorted out a few days/weeks later..Pulpstar said:I don't think we'll notice a smidgen of difference if we leave without a deal on the morning it happens. The sun will rise in the east...
0 -
Yup, if you're a self-sufficient subsistence farmer you should be fine.Pulpstar said:I don't think we'll notice a smidgen of difference if we leave without a deal on the morning it happens. The sun will rise in the east...
0 -
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&v=-1q5vjuX_Bc Meanwhile in the USA..0
-
Pound now down 20 cents in the last eight months.0
-
That wasn't what I meant. I meant of the poor outcomes is managed no deal really viable? I dont see how they, er, manage it.david_herdson said:
I never said this wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Tories.kle4 said:
How can they achieve a consensus to deliver no deal? Yes it is default outcome for no deal to happen, but there's enough Tories who will block any preparations which might require legislation or, at that point, break ranks on a no confidence vote no matter the cost, to prevent them having a majority still surely?david_herdson said:We ought really to be talking about Next PM.
Two thoughts.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible.
2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?0 -
So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?0
-
Can you get odds for the next by-election being at Windsor and Maidenhead?0
-
What is he prattling on about?Pulpstar said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&v=-1q5vjuX_Bc Meanwhile in the USA..
0 -
Schumer or Trump ?FrancisUrquhart said:
What is he prattling on about?Pulpstar said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&v=-1q5vjuX_Bc Meanwhile in the USA..
0 -
Obviously not going to happen, but it potentially leads to a schrodinger's brexit, where the EU would consider the UK a member, but UK domestic law defined by the eu withdrawal act would leave the UK out.Scott_P said:If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
Keeps everyone happy :-)0 -
I do annual renewal - not DDSandyRentool said:
Remember to cancel the Direct Debit!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn upIanB2 said:
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainerskle4 said:
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.Benpointer said:
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.kle4 said:Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
What is the view now?
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible0 -
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
United for Change 😏SandyRentool said:So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?
0 -
But an early New Year Earldom if Dom the Man gets the job. But sadly TSE will remain a Mister.RobD said:0 -
-
Notably as it's 'not a big change' as suggested previously, this threshold would conveniently not be needed in a vote now to remain. Convenient.DavidL said:
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
I actually think thresholds are not terrible ideas, but we legally said it was ok before, it's not fair or reasonable to use the lack if them as justification for a rerun. That people have changed their mind is stronger than that.0 -
United for a change nearer the mark.Gallowgate said:
United for Change 😏SandyRentool said:So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?
0 -
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....0
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Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
If the turnout threshold is 65% and a proposition has 60% support then opponents can win by not turning up. No thanks.IanB2 said:
Which is the whole idea. If the requisite proportion of the voters can't be assed to turn out and vote for the change in question, it doesn't happen.Donny43 said:
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
You wouldn’t want to be a Tory MP tonight. A VONC seems a lose-lose situation to me. May stays and the Brexit limbo continues. Or you roll the dice and get alternatively a) a remainer and second referendum, and more chaos b) a hardline brexiteer who announces no deal and ultra chaos or c) a moderate and read above re Brexit limbo. I have no idea WTH is going on anymore.0
-
A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.0 -
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.tottenhamWC said:I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
0 -
Yes, yes, I know they are two different and independent things. I'm simply saying that Corbyn's best chance of a successful vonc in the Government under the FTPA surely comes at the time 48+ Conservatives are expressly and visibly not behind the PM. Surely that's the time a Con or DUP MP or two is most likely to abstain (I too doubt they'd flip).Pulpstar said:
? Eh ? Is this the mad delusion that is sweeping Twitter ?Drutt said:
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.
0 -
Away from the world of politics, the fA Cup tie between Bradford and Peterborough has just ended 4-4.
After many twists and turned, ultimately a deadlock was unavoidable.-1 -
Events can run away with themselves. I hope you're right, that a no-deal Brexit won't be actually catastrophic, but I'm 3,500 miles away.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
That would probably fail the 'constitutional process' test.asjohnstone said:
Obviously not going to happen, but it potentially leads to a schrodinger's brexit, where the EU would consider the UK a member, but UK domestic law defined by the eu withdrawal act would leave the UK out.Scott_P said:If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
Keeps everyone happy :-)0 -
Spurs just scored against Barcelona.Quincel said:Away from the world of politics, the fA Cup tie between Bradford and Peterborough has just ended 4-4.
After many twists and turned, ultimately a deadlock was unavoidable.-1 -
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?DavidL said:
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.tottenhamWC said:I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
0 -
Instant deselection for any conservative doing that.Drutt said:
Yes, yes, I know they are two different and independent things. I'm simply saying that Corbyn's best chance of a successful vonc in the Government under the FTPA surely comes at the time 48+ Conservatives are expressly and visibly not behind the PM. Surely that's the time a Con or DUP MP or two is most likely to abstain (I too doubt they'd flip).Pulpstar said:
? Eh ? Is this the mad delusion that is sweeping Twitter ?Drutt said:
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.0 -
Does the House of Commons website know something we do not? In its page to filter MPs by party it has options for Conservative, Labour,Liberal Democrat, DUP, Sinn Fein, Speaker, Independent, Plaid Cymru, Green Party, SNP...and for the Social Democrat Party and Liberal Party. No one listed there...yet.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/?sort=3&type=160 -
And we have just dramatically seen that she likes to run away from a fight.Foxy said:
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?DavidL said:
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.tottenhamWC said:I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
0 -
My advice would be to accept it and act as PM while her successor is appointedFoxy said:
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?DavidL said:
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.tottenhamWC said:I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
0 -
Maybe settling things was being a bit optimistic!. Ironically I think Mrs May's deal comes closest to fulfilling the 2016 mandate. No deal or remain would need to be supported in a referendum if they are going to have any real legitimacy.Black_Rook said:
A referendum would only settle the situation if there were a vote for No Deal (and perhaps not even then, if Parliament can find the will and the means to overturn it.) Otherwise the battles will just rumble on and on.OllyT said:
I now believe that whatever path we take it has to be legitimised by a referendum. Nothing will be settled otherwiseBenpointer said:
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.DavidL said:
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.Benpointer said:
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...DavidL said:
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.Benpointer said:
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
The Scottish referendum settled nothing, after all.0 -
No. What is getting silly is people like you and apparently the Tory party not understanding that businesses have planned on the basis that there would be a transition agreement. If there isn't one, we don't revert to some nirvana where everything works perfectly. We revert to, well, what? Who knows? Uncertainties, delays, trying to cobble together mini-agreements at the last minute in the worst possible circumstances, all the factors which will make economic difficulties worse and which will likely to persuade businesses that it may no longer be worth the effort remaining in Britain. No access to EU markets on the same basis as now. Economic uncertainty. Delays. Extra costs. The likelihood of a Corbyn government. Political and economic risk, in short.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Meanwhile other countries in the EU will be falling over themselves to offer a home to such businesses and their staff.
Stability. Certainty. The rule of law. Sensible, pragmatic governments. Governments you could generally trust. A country open for business and welcoming to those who want to do well. Britain's offering to the world. All seriously trashed or damaged by idiots - and for what? Because they didn't like their leader or the fact that their former colony did not do what it was told by Britain or because they were too bloody thick to understand the difference between a transition agreement and a final deal or the necessity for a guarantee.0 -
The sweary scouse lady that the BT Sport mics are picking up on the Liverpool game is nearly as annoying as Mr Stop Brexit.0
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Resignation on its way maybeScott_P said:0 -
Bloody hell!FrancisUrquhart said:The sweary scouse lady that the BT Sport mics are picking up on the Liverpool game is nearly as annoying as Mr Stop Brexit.
A scouser at Anfield? Is she lost?0 -
Naturally I don't believe that suggestion (based on an eye witness account), to have been a silly one, or I wouldn't have entertained it. Conspiracy theories have gained immense popularity on PB since I started posting; almost everyone's a convert, they just have to have been committed by people we don't like.Anazina said:
Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0 -
A high price to pay for more sensible politicsWhisperingOracle said:A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.0 -
I think it’s worth thinking about how many votes against her would cause her to say enough. She is already well short of a majority for her deal. If even 100 say that they have lost confidence I think she will go.Big_G_NorthWales said:
My advice would be to accept it and act as PM while her successor is appointedFoxy said:
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?DavidL said:
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.tottenhamWC said:I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
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I thought these days only poncy boots types like TSE attended?dixiedean said:
Bloody hell!FrancisUrquhart said:The sweary scouse lady that the BT Sport mics are picking up on the Liverpool game is nearly as annoying as Mr Stop Brexit.
A scouser at Anfield? Is she lost?0 -
Yes.IanB2 said:
A high price to pay for more sensible politicsWhisperingOracle said:A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.0 -
If only May going would mean it was over, but Brexit is just as unsolved as it was before she goes.Scott_P said:0 -
Spurs through. Big, big deal in my part of London.0
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At least half of the electorate voting for a radical change would have been an obvious one.DavidL said:
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?IanB2 said:
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.DavidL said:
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.david_herdson said:
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).DavidL said:
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
Alfred Lewis said nine meals from anarchy. That was in 1906. Three meals from revolution has been attributed to Alexandre Dumas before him and Leon Trotsky after him, although I've not see chapter and verse for either.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Research has been done on the social and political effects of famine. As body weight falls, combativeness and sociality first rise and then they fall drastically and even natural ties between parents and children weaken. Many stop caring. Of course the evil scum of society have a heyday, such as those who demanded art treasures for food in Leningrad.
People in Britain have no idea about famine whatsoever. Russia, yes. Ukraine, the Netherlands, Greece, yes. In Britain the xenophobic archetype of the Bogeyman Other is far stronger than the archetype of the empty belly. If there's another referendum, Leave will win. It will be interesting to find out whether Dominic Cummings (about whom I concur with David Cameron's assessment) updates his prediction that Leave will break 60%.0 -
Well said Cyclefree - absolutely correct!!Cyclefree said:
No. What is getting silly is people like you and apparently the Tory party not understanding that businesses have planned on the basis that there would be a transition agreement. If there isn't one, we don't revert to some nirvana where everything works perfectly. We revert to, well, what? Who knows? Uncertainties, delays, trying to cobble together mini-agreements at the last minute in the worst possible circumstances, all the factors which will make economic difficulties worse and which will likely to persuade businesses that it may no longer be worth the effort remaining in Britain. No access to EU markets on the same basis as now. Economic uncertainty. Delays. Extra costs. The likelihood of a Corbyn government. Political and economic risk, in short.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Meanwhile other countries in the EU will be falling over themselves to offer a home to such businesses and their staff.
Stability. Certainty. The rule of law. Sensible, pragmatic governments. Governments you could generally trust. A country open for business and welcoming to those who want to do well. Britain's offering to the world. All seriously trashed or damaged by idiots - and for what? Because they didn't like their leader or the fact that their former colony did not do what it was told by Britain or because they were too bloody thick to understand the difference between a transition agreement and a final deal or the necessity for a guarantee.0 -
At one level this makes a bit of sense. We'll still be there. The EU will still be there. Now what? The crisis is entirely of our making.Pulpstar said:I don't think we'll notice a smidgen of difference if we leave without a deal on the morning it happens. The sun will rise in the east...
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It is utterly unbelievable that 3 months away from Brexit the Tory Party (or at least a sizeable chunk of the parliamentary party) thinks it’d be a good idea to have a protracted leadership election.
Ye gods, they have totally lost the plot.0 -
Er, what?Luckyguy1983 said:
Naturally I don't believe that suggestion (based on an eye witness account), to have been a silly one, or I wouldn't have entertained it. Conspiracy theories have gained immense popularity on PB since I started posting; almost everyone's a convert, they just have to have been committed by people we don't like.Anazina said:
Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.Luckyguy1983 said:
This is getting silly.Beverley_C said:
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...SeanT said:
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)SouthamObserver said:This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.0
