politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round vic

TheScreamingEagles said:

Police state.

https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/1072524874160238592

In Macron's France, they would have tear-gassed and rubber bulletted him

I sense that the 48 letters are finally in. I think that TM's plan to run the clock down and force an eventual gun-to-head choice between her deal and WTO crash and burn has spooked some remainers to act and that plus the ERG usuals has done the trick. So 2 burning questions arise:

- Will she win the subsequent VONC among tory MPs?

- If she does not, will those self same tory MPs keep BoJo out of the final 2?

If the answers are NO and NO, we are looking at a very grim prospect indeed.

Donny43 said:

In a hung parliament it's difficult to see how a leadership election could be allowed to go to the membership.

Indeed but you never can be sure. Even if the vast bulk of Tory MPs and the main contenders agree on a coronation of some unifying figure (Gove?), it only takes one other potential candidate to decide to have a go for it to trigger a full contest. Given the utter shambles of indisciplined, ego-driven civil war being displayed at the moment, you can't rule out such a contest.

kinabalu said:

I sense that the 48 letters are finally in. I think that TM's plan to run the clock down and force an eventual gun-to-head choice between her deal and WTO crash and burn has spooked some remainers to act and that plus the ERG usuals has done the trick. So 2 burning questions arise:

- Will she win the subsequent VONC among tory MPs?

- If she does not, will those self same tory MPs keep BoJo out of the final 2?

If the answers are NO and NO, we are looking at a very grim prospect indeed.

"Crikey! I've lost my BoJo!"

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Donny43 said:

In a hung parliament it's difficult to see how a leadership election could be allowed to go to the membership.

Indeed but you never can be sure. Even if the vast bulk of Tory MPs and the main contenders agree on a coronation of some unifying figure (Gove?), it only takes one potential candidate to decide to have a go for it to trigger a full contest. Given the utter shambles of indisciplined, ego-driven civil war being displayed at the moment, you can't rule out such a contest.

Sounds like you're talking about Boris.

Boris? Why would you think I was referring to him? :InnocentFace

Donny43 said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looking into my crystal ball.

I’d now be betting on Mrs May going in 2018 and replaced by Gove in a coronation and a full blown leadership contest in the summer of 2019.

Totally unrelated I enjoyed my visit to Westminster today.

I quite like Gove but he is hugely unpopular with the voters.

On a six month temporary contract that doesn't really matter.

It does if the 48 letters to remove him are in by Christmas! Nailed on - when he tries to push Norway+.....

Donny43 said:

TOPPING said:

Donny43 said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1072512218800025602

All those MPs of others demanding this, that and the other and clearly not understanding the difference between a transitional agreement and the permanent FTA between the UK and the EU should listen to the German MEP interviewed on today's WATO. He puts many of our legislators to shame.

Many sane Tory MPs (yes there still are some) are at their wits' end trying to point out to their colleagues just this. The WA is the WA. Different from any future FTA.

The problem is that the WA is supposed to be temporary but the backstop is permanent.

Yes I understand that. I understand the objection but it is not seeing the wood for the trees. It is in everyone's best interest to conclude an FTA as soon as possible. For the EU because they think we are cherry-picking and for us because of, well, the backstop which irritates some folk.

But it is a staging post which all sides want to move on from as soon as possible.

The Cons MP Brexiters are not even clever enough to understand that the EU dislikes the deal that the UK has got intensely.

Plus, of course, as I have pointed out a zillion times, there simply cannot not be a backstop so it's just as well that it will be redundant in a year or two or three.

Given that the backstop allows the EU to use access to the UK market in its trade deals, I have no faith that they will "want to move on from it as soon as possible".

I understand that also - but first it is reciprocal and secondly it is deeply suboptimal from their perspective as it allows us to avoid the many obligations that other members are subject to. I can't see them wanting to drag the negotiations on longer than necessary.

But as I said, the backstop is a sine qua non and hence it's just as well that both sides (IMO) want to transition out of the WA as soon as possible.

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Hey, Beverley, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a city with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...

DO not be so daft Sunil - those are only weapons. The swivel-eyed loon, ultra-nutter brigade have a Brexit and they are not afraid to use it.

Destruction down to the level of quarks. Only a seething mass of electron plasma and high-energy photons will remain....

Ress-Mogg - a weaponised mixture of strangeness and charm.

New plan for May - If she stays out the country, the letters can't be enforced.

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Hey, Beverley, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a city with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...

DO not be so daft Sunil - those are only weapons. The swivel-eyed loon, ultra-nutter brigade have a Brexit and they are not afraid to use it.

Destruction down to the level of quarks. Only a seething mass of electron plasma and high-energy photons will remain....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhP7XzA8WI8

Nigel_Foremain said:

Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?

We cannot have a Labour government. Under Jezza and his mates.

notme said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?

Both of them speak to their own audience and poalarise everyone else.

If JRM becomes PM then Corbyn will win the next election.

Could be the biggest swing in ideology in Downing Street since...

actually I don't know when. Attlee?

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Donny43 said:

In a hung parliament it's difficult to see how a leadership election could be allowed to go to the membership.

Indeed but you never can be sure. Even if the vast bulk of Tory MPs and the main contenders agree on a coronation of some unifying figure (Gove?), it only takes one potential candidate to decide to have a go for it to trigger a full contest. Given the utter shambles of indisciplined, ego-driven civil war being displayed at the moment, you can't rule out such a contest.

Sounds like you're talking about Boris.

Boris? Why would you think I was referring to him? :InnocentFace

Mind you given the state of their relationship I can see David Cameron not being helpful if there is a Gove coronation in the offing.

What would be the point of a Gove coronation? If he tries to implement any form of Brexit his role in the campaign will just be hammered by everyone and the opposition will be overwhelming.

He’s nominally trusted by Leavers and impressing everyone else with his pragmatism.

It will also be impressed on everybody the WA is short term and the long term deal is what really matters.

Beverley_C said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Hey, Beverley, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate Brexiteers will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a city with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...

DO not be so daft Sunil - those are only weapons. The swivel-eyed loon, ultra-nutter brigade have a Brexit and they are not afraid to use it.

Destruction down to the level of quarks. Only a seething mass of electron plasma and high-energy photons will remain....

Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and a second referendum.... Our *three* weapons are fear, and surprise, and a second referendum...and an almost fanatical devotion to the EU.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise.... I'll come in again.

Beverley_C said:

Cyclefree said:

The last two years have shown us that Raab, Johnson and Hannan have not the first clue how the EU works. They are ignorant, self-serving, malicious and damaging. At least Gove has tried to do something worthwhile at DEFRA. The rest of them are a useless waste of space.

I say we nuke Westminster from orbit - it's the only way to be sure

I cannot begin to tell you how angry I am at politicians playing stupid bloody games, out of malice, ambition, ignorance, which will harm the future of this country and that of my family.

For reasons which need not concern anyone I actually own a proper yellow high-vis jacket. I am beginning to think that hurling paving stones at the utter wankers in Westminster is the only rational course of action.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1072524717419098112

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

Yes I understand that. I understand the objection but it is not seeing the wood for the trees. It is in everyone's best interest to conclude an FTA as soon as possible. For the EU because they think we are cherry-picking and for us because of, well, the backstop which irritates some folk.

I think the EU's protestations would have more merit if they hadn't trapped Turkey in just such a backstop for over 30 years.

Turkey, AAUI, could make strides towards becoming eligible for EU membership via a number measures including enacting some, and not enacting other policies. They seem to value however their current societal structure and MO more than EU membership.

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072520909817307136

What a pointless tweet. They're confident, but have been before, eventually they'll be right, who cares.

This time I think it is the Pro-EU/pragmatic wing that have sent the letters in now.

grabcocque said:

YouGov finding the same as Lord Ashcroft. Supporters for the deal (around 20%) has barely changed, but the Don't Knows are firming up solidly against it.

But the EU said they won't renegotiate.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Donny43 said:

In a hung parliament it's difficult to see how a leadership election could be allowed to go to the membership.

Indeed but you never can be sure. Even if the vast bulk of Tory MPs and the main contenders agree on a coronation of some unifying figure (Gove?), it only takes one other potential candidate to decide to have a go for it to trigger a full contest. Given the utter shambles of indisciplined, ego-driven civil war being displayed at the moment, you can't rule out such a contest.

You make it clear than anyone attempting to force a contest would lose the whip (assuming that would exclude them from the contest)?

The only way a contest works is if both candidates would have the confidence of the Commons.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?

Since we're all quoting Aliens today:

"We're on an express elevator to hell, going down!"

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1072530407420297218

Why does the right answer so often get 48%?

If 48 letters today, new leader by 31 December? A propos nothing of course...

Pulpstar said:

New plan for May - If she stays out the country, the letters can't be enforced.

Or stay airborne, in a giant game of "ticky off ground"........

grabcocque said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072520909817307136

What a pointless tweet. They're confident, but have been before, eventually they'll be right, who cares.

This time I think it is the Pro-EU/pragmatic wing that have sent the letters in now.

And the despairing, sane leavers.

And Micky Fab?

PAST

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Brexit means Brexit.

PRESENT

Withdrawal agreement is agreed but not the Trade Deal.

A bad deal is better than no deal.

Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

Sean_F said:

Cyclefree said:

Beverley_C said:

Cyclefree said:

The last two years have shown us that Raab, Johnson and Hannan have not the first clue how the EU works. They are ignorant, self-serving, malicious and damaging. At least Gove has tried to do something worthwhile at DEFRA. The rest of them are a useless waste of space.

I say we nuke Westminster from orbit - it's the only way to be sure

I cannot begin to tell you how angry I am at politicians playing stupid bloody games, out of malice, ambition, ignorance, which will harm the future of this country and that of my family.

For reasons which need not concern anyone I actually own a proper yellow high-vis jacket. I am beginning to think that hurling paving stones at the utter wankers in Westminster is the only rational course of action.

Have you ever read Screwtape Proposes a Toast?

Hell produces a wine called Vintage Pharisee comprising the souls of religious bigots who hate one another, but are forced to spend eternity with each other. That's the present House of Commons; hundreds of raging egos who hate each other, all cooped up together, unable to escape each other.

L'enfer - c'est l'autres, non?

grabcocque said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072520909817307136

What a pointless tweet. They're confident, but have been before, eventually they'll be right, who cares.

This time I think it is the Pro-EU/pragmatic wing that have sent the letters in now.

And the despairing, sane leavers.

So basically every Tory MP but all hoping for a different outcome

grabcocque said:

Breaking: Article 50 to be extended https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1072531685542121477

LOL

David_Evershed said:

PAST

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Brexit means Brexit.

PRESENT

Withdrawal agreement is agreed but not the Trade Deal.

A bad deal is better than no deal.

Brexit doesn't mean Brexit.

We don't have a deal yet David so your post falls down. We have a withdrawal agreement which will be in place until we have a deal.

logical_song said:

May can't get out, in Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-46525689/brexit-theresa-may-gets-stuck-in-car-ahead-of-angela-merkel-meeting

That won't appear in Have I Got News For You....no sireeee, not a chance.......

Theresa May really is a cluster-fuck magnet.

Which might explain why the magnetised letters fell off the Conference wall. But how we'll enjoy her two and a half minute highlights of two and a half years in the Jungle......

Now get yourself out of here.

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

I sense that the 48 letters are finally in. I think that TM's plan to run the clock down and force an eventual gun-to-head choice between her deal and WTO crash and burn has spooked some remainers to act and that plus the ERG usuals has done the trick. So 2 burning questions arise:

- Will she win the subsequent VONC among tory MPs?

- If she does not, will those self same tory MPs keep BoJo out of the final 2?

If the answers are NO and NO, we are looking at a very grim prospect indeed.

She will not win. Hyufd can point to how many were going to vote for the deal but we know that several cabinet members had their own plans for after the vote, so the idea they will vote for may cannot be assured, nor all of those who were going to vote for the deal. Running from the vote for a pointless non negotiation has diminished respect for her even further and even if she is right she cannot help the country anymore. She will lose.

I thimk a few weeks ago HYUFD was probably right. Now i think the mood has changed as MPs realise she has run out of road down which to kick the can.

MarqueeMark said:

logical_song said:

May can't get out, in Europe.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-46525689/brexit-theresa-may-gets-stuck-in-car-ahead-of-angela-merkel-meeting

That won't appear in Have I Got News For You....no sireeee, not a chance.......

Theresa May really is a cluster-fuck magnet.

Which might explain why the magnetised letters fell off the Conference wall. But how we'll enjoy her two and a half minute highlights of two and a half years in the Jungle......

Now get yourself out of here.

A political Tommy Cooper. Without the magic. Or humour. Just stuff going perpetually wrong.

Fenster said:

@Cyclefree

Johnson and Hannan have been arguing consistently for years that the EU is moving in a direction incompatible with what the majority of British voters want. They identified the problem of unaccountable power long before it got us here.

Given the current drama it's easy to single people out for blame (and Boris is a favourite for most people to blame), but I think we were always destined to end up here. The mass immigration (without a plan for it) issues of the early noughties, Brown signing the Lisbon treaty behind closed doors, Blair trying to join us to the Euro, the antagonism of the British press, the way the Eurozone handled Greece... all those things, and lots more, have been building up to a point of explosion for years, and the EU referendum opened the floodgates to that.

The whole Brexit issue is much bigger than the ambitious moves of a few self-serving Tories. Johnson, Raab and Hannan deserve opprobrium for not having a detailed plan for exit (could anyone come up with one? The EU seems a lot like leaving Hotel California) but I'd argue they understand the EU pretty well and are warning us Brits if we don't like the unaccountable suffocating nature of it now it's only going to get worse.

The EU has never been my bugbear, but I can empathise with their fears.

Sorry: no. Johnson has said over the years whatever he thought his audience wanted to hear. He has spoken in favour of immigration.

Hannan has made all sorts of points about being able to get better trade deals outside the EU but it has become perfectly clear that he has no understanding of our current arrangements and has said contradictory things over the years. Neither have come up with any sort of coherent plan.

It is easy to criticise the EU. I have done so myself. But Johnson et al have a total lack of empathy with why the EU is at is, what it is trying to achieve and why the insults they have lobbed at the EU are so wrong, offensive and counter-productive. There are issues with the EU's direction of travel and the UK's view of itself, what Romano Prodi called an issue of "identity" but there are ways of dealing with those which require hard work and hard thinking not the sort of destructively frivolous approach being taken by those pushing Brexit.

I can empathise with the fears of those who worry about the EU's direction of travel. I share some of them. What I can't abide are those who don't bother to do the hard, fresh thinking needed to see how best to come to a workable long-term relationship between the UK and the EU. What is Britain's strategy towards the EU? God knows. The Brexiteers' strategy (and I am being kind in calling it thus) is to wish that Europe just didn't exist and we could ignore it. To call it childish is to insult the intelligence of most children.

Fenster said:

@Cyclefree

Johnson and Hannan have been arguing consistently for years that the EU is moving in a direction incompatible with what the majority of British voters want. They identified the problem of unaccountable power long before it got us here.

Given the current drama it's easy to single people out for blame (and Boris is a favourite for most people to blame), but I think we were always destined to end up here. The mass immigration (without a plan for it) issues of the early noughties, Brown signing the Lisbon treaty behind closed doors, Blair trying to join us to the Euro, the antagonism of the British press, the way the Eurozone handled Greece... all those things, and lots more, have been building up to a point of explosion for years, and the EU referendum opened the floodgates to that.

The whole Brexit issue is much bigger than the ambitious moves of a few self-serving Tories. Johnson, Raab and Hannan deserve opprobrium for not having a detailed plan for exit (could anyone come up with one? The EU seems a lot like leaving Hotel California) but I'd argue they understand the EU pretty well and are warning us Brits if we don't like the unaccountable suffocating nature of it now it's only going to get worse.

The EU has never been my bugbear, but I can empathise with their fears.

It needs to be said, Fenster.

There are few keener Europhiles on this Site than me, and even I put a large part of the blame for this sorry state of affairs on the EU itself.

Where are the men in grey suits?

Anorak said:

Thread. She is a disingenuous moron of epic proportions.
https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/1072521447472594956

Father I have sinned, I helped Andrea Jenkyns get elected.

I think I need to say 359 billion to the power 42 billion Hail Marys.

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

grabcocque said:

Breaking: Article 50 to be extended

Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.

I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?

France if Macron needs a boost to his opinion poll numbers?

https://twitter.com/michielhoefsmit/status/1072530989325451266?s=21

grabcocque said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

What is the logical maximum number of contenders for the Tory party election? Could loyalists flood it with, say 50, thereby ensuring that no election would result before March 29th?

Each candidate needs a proposer and seconder. But the process is under the control of the 1922. If they saw a large number of no-hoper candidates were being nominated to play silly buggers, they'd take remedial action, I think.

Identifying which Cons MPs are or would be the ones playing silly buggers must surely be a task worthy of Hercules.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Father I have sinned, I helped Andrea Jenkyns get elected.

I think I need to say 359 billion to the power 42 billion Hail Marys.

Apparently Brexit will be fine because we can order things online from China.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1072261265249185793

Cyclefree said:

Beverley_C said:

Cyclefree said:

The last two years have shown us that Raab, Johnson and Hannan have not the first clue how the EU works. They are ignorant, self-serving, malicious and damaging. At least Gove has tried to do something worthwhile at DEFRA. The rest of them are a useless waste of space.

I say we nuke Westminster from orbit - it's the only way to be sure

I cannot begin to tell you how angry I am at politicians playing stupid bloody games, out of malice, ambition, ignorance, which will harm the future of this country and that of my family.

For reasons which need not concern anyone I actually own a proper yellow high-vis jacket. I am beginning to think that hurling paving stones at the utter wankers in Westminster is the only rational course of action.

"Sous le pavé, le muddy Thames foreshore"

justin124 said:

OldKingCole said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

notme said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?

Both of them speak to their own audience and poalarise everyone else.

If JRM becomes PM then Corbyn will win the next election.

Could be the biggest swing in ideology in Downing Street since...

actually I don't know when. Attlee?

1951. Attlee TO Churchill!

Hardly - the 1951 Tory Government was very moderate - well to the left of the later Blair Govts.

So was Attlee's!