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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round vic
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid
There’s a new YouGov/QMUL poll London Mayoral poll just out that has Sadiq Khan on 55% against just 27% for his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey. The voting system, it will be recalled is based on the supplementary vote so that a contender needs to win 50% only first round to be sure of victory.
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Also the polling looks dire for the Lib Dems. I wonder if Khan will take any of the current LD seats on first prefs.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/03/tories-london-mayor-pick-shaun-bailey-multiculturalism-robs-britain-of-its-community
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-london-mayor-candidate-shaun-bailey-defends-raw-controversial-comments-11522416
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1072454837781053442
A man is being held by armed police officers after it is believed he broke into the grounds of Parliament in Westminster.
An eyewitness told the BBC the man jumped over railings before being Tasered by police.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46524839
I've been saying for *years* (since Oblivion) what everyone else is saying about Bethesda now. Glad you finally caught up with me, guys!
Possibly, maybe, being able to sack somebody from a job during a trial period if they are found to be utterly shit. Scandalous.
The demographics make that all but certain.
I'm not sure if the penny has dropped that the excuse for the next tube strike is that LU sacked a driver who failed a drugs test.
For @JosiasJessop I think it was the Richmond Park by-election where the seeds of short-term tactical success were sown and the chance of a crop of long-term strategic success was lost.
The Lib Dem activists found on the doorstep that the third runway got no cut-through either way (at least half their pledge were fine with it). The electors there were pissed off about Brexit. Naturally, as the most anti-Brexit Party, this was a gift and they naturally pivoted to maximise on it. And won.
The media coverage led to an influx of new members - very motivated, more likely to become activists than most... and utterly anti-Brexit.
The Party started to resemble a single-issue Party: the Anti-Brexit League. Media coverage was solely on this. The leadership responded - all of a sudden the desperately needed media coverage was back... as long as they talked about Brexit. And, of course, they could harness the outrage of the Remainers, with the Big Two not taking this chance; a polling score of 48% beckoned!
Unfortunately, with a single-issue party, if you don't agree that the issue is the most important and agree with the party, you're going to ignore them. And only 60% or so think Brexit is the most important thing. Of these, maybe a quarter are pro-Brexit, a half just want it to stop, and a quarter are anti-Brexit. This means they're actually fishing in a pool of 15%, not 48%.
And YouGov did polling to see whether or not voters have "forgiven the Lib Dems". Hearteningly, a lot had. There was only one demographic that was relentless in their anger: "Remainers who haven't accepted the result." So not only are they fishing in a pool of about 15%, it's the most hostile 15% after the Coalition. Good luck getting half of them (while bleeding core voters who are sick of Brexit or are Leavers).
Solution? Dunno. None this side of Brexit.
Thus, if the government is pissed off with them, it's a sign they are doing their job properly.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/100503/andrea-leadsom-questions-commons-speaker
QED.
(Incidentally I think we can add the rights and responsibilities of the Speaker's Chair to the bumper book of Things Mrs Leadsom Does Not Understand).
However even so it should be pointed out Bailey ties Khan in Outer London, it is only Inner London which gives Khan his clear lead
I don't want or expect Bercow to give the government an easy time, that is not his job, but it is no secret the gov hates him and he hates it, and he should do a better job of pretending otherwise.
How well distributed is this claimed ‘wage growth’? Anecdotally there is next to no wage growth here in the North East of England.
In any case, it's all piss and wind since they both know Leadsom has neither the votes, nor the balls, to move against him. So all she's done is let him know he's getting under her skin, and she's powerless to stop it.
Figure 7.
North East is both the lowest paid and slowest growing region.West Mids and NI the highest growing, East Mids and Yorkshire also outstrip London for growth with Scotland and NW a fraction behind.
The fact I have a quid on that has nothing to do with this (It was from before he became the main rent a quote chap)
You just made me say a nice thing about JRM.
You bastard.
Can they do it is a procedural question. Should they do it is a political question.
OT: I see Mrs May is once more LARPing the Book of Job. Poor woman.
May told the EU that she was pulling the vote before she told Cabinet, let alone her own party, let alone the House.
Hence Gove saying "yes, it's 100% going ahead".
This should be worth another half-dozen letters to Graham Brady Old Lady...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/theresa-may-told-eu-leaders-brexit-vote-pulled
That said, the level to which speakers are active vs reactive varies a lot. Betty Boothroyd and John Bercow were much more active speakers than Michael Martin, who was a very reactive speaker.
But I think contained in it is the reason why Remain has a much better chance this time. She says:
"They've made the fight about broad political values (sovereignty, control as embodied by the functioning of borders, national identity) bolstered by the occasional figure, (£350mil) or policy area (fishing). Brexit didn't win on a manifesto, it won on emotionally resonant memes."
That is indeed how Remain will fight EUref2. And their emotionally resonant meme is going to be "fight the gammon".
EUref1 was (broadly speaking) about old and working class people voting against a polity that has been taken from them, using the EU as a symbol of that.
EUref2 is going to be about young and middle class people voting against a polity that is otherwise about to be taken from them. The young and middle class are going to fight EUref2 in a way they never really fought EUref1, complacently believing it was in the bag.
Those who say "beware the division that EUref2 might awaken" are half-right. Half-right in that it will be divisive, but half-wrong in that there is an option to let the division sleep. There isn't. It's too late for that now.
Really?
Wow.
If it's simply a vote on whether or not to revoke A50, then there's a good chance Remain will lose.
You might be tempted to think a referendum in those circumstances would be a foregone conclusion, but I'd never make such a prediction.
Colin Wing, 60, was caught on camera screaming insults at the Manchester City player in a Premier League match at Stamford Bridge on Saturday - but he denies the abuse was racist.
Mr Wing, from Beckenham, south-east London, says that he has lost his job and his season ticket at Chelsea, after 50 years watching the club, adding: 'Everybody’s got what they wanted'.
The married father-of-two, who lives in a £500,000 house and is believed to be a former BT manager, insists that he called Mr Sterling a 'Manc c***' not a 'black c***', although the England star is understood to have told police he heard racist language.
Mr Wing said: ‘I’m deeply ashamed by my own behaviour and I feel really bad. But I didn’t call him a black c***, I called him a Manc c***.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6481297/Chelsea-fan-accused-racially-abusing-Sterling-says-called-MANC-c-not-black-one.html
Christ, Southerners are being robbed blind.
May delaying this vote has made me feel better about being on her survival till year end.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1072487752736878592
On topic, Khan seems a bit 'meh' to be honest. I don't really see the point of the Mayor. Or what he is doing for London, particularly. But I think he will likely win again, unless he gets tripped up by something like Crossrail.
absolutley brilliant.