Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
Does a likely defenestration of the PM count as a material change in circumstances?
I think that depends on whether the new PM intends to follow a different strategy. But, yeah, probably.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
Does a likely defenestration of the PM count as a material change in circumstances?
I think that depends on whether the new PM intends to follow a different strategy. But, yeah, probably.
Admittedly it doesn't exactly strengthen her negotiating position with the EU but probably picks up a few sympathy points.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
And an extension requires formal unanimity of all 27 countries.
Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?
Both of them speak to their own audience and poalarise everyone else.
If JRM becomes PM then Corbyn will win the next election.
Could be the biggest swing in ideology in Downing Street since...
actually I don't know when. Attlee?
1951. Attlee TO Churchill!
Hardly - the 1951 Tory Government was very moderate - well to the left of the later Blair Govts.
So was Attlee's!
Indeed so - but it hardly amounted to a massive change in policy terms. It was the era of Butskellism - more like a tweak when compared with what happened in 1979 following Thatcher's victory.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
And an extension requires formal unanimity of all 27 countries.
I think we should assume, practically, we'd only be granted an extension only in case of a referendum or a general election.
Question to my fellow centrists...given the choice, who do you despise the most, Jacob Rees Mogg who would wreck the country with his vacuous stupidity and utopian Brexit, or Jeremy "2Es" Corbyn with his equally vacuous stupidity and his utopian Venezuelan socialism?
Both of them speak to their own audience and poalarise everyone else.
If JRM becomes PM then Corbyn will win the next election.
Could be the biggest swing in ideology in Downing Street since...
actually I don't know when. Attlee?
1951. Attlee TO Churchill!
Hardly - the 1951 Tory Government was very moderate - well to the left of the later Blair Govts.
So was Attlee's!
Indeed so - but it hardly amounted to a massive change in policy terms. It was the era of Butskellism - more like a tweak when compared with what happened in 1979 following Thatcher's victory.
The 1979 manifesto didn't have the full range of things Thatcher went on to implement, though. I guess it's still a contender though
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
And an extension requires formal unanimity of all 27 countries.
Only in the Council of Ministers, so not a formal ratification or requiring their parliaments to get involved. In practice, likely to be quite easy to get, I'd expect, provided it is for a limited time and with a specific purpose. Still, you can never be sure.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
Can't her successor just say "thanks - but we don't want no stinking extension...."? It's not like any extension will be in a Treaty or anything.
That won't appear in Have I Got News For You....no sireeee, not a chance.......
Theresa May really is a cluster-fuck magnet.
Which might explain why the magnetised letters fell off the Conference wall. But how we'll enjoy her two and a half minute highlights of two and a half years in the Jungle......
Now get yourself out of here.
I believe somebody once called her a poundshop Gordon brown....if only I could remember who.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
And an extension requires formal unanimity of all 27 countries.
Only in the Council of Ministers, so not a formal ratification or requiring their parliaments to get involved. In practice, likely to be quite easy to get, I'd expect, provided it is for a limited time and with a specific purpose. Still, you can never be sure.
Macron needs the domestic uptick from telling Les Rosbifs where they can stick their extension....
What is the logical maximum number of contenders for the Tory party election? Could loyalists flood it with, say 50, thereby ensuring that no election would result before March 29th?
No
They whittle them down very quickly
Only twice a week, on Tuesday and Thursday. But if there were 100 nominated MPs, perhaps they'd accelerate the process somewhat.
If there were 100 nominated MPs there would be an awful lot who would get 3, 2 or even 1 vote, Or possibly 0 if they're really playing silly buggers. Those can all be excluded en masse in the first round.
Given the need to pass legislation for the deal, the only way to avoid an extension would probably be to leave with no deal, or revoke without a referendum.
I assume, if she did decide to go that route, that she doesn't need Parliamentary approval for an extension? And are there any countries who might be at risk of vetoing?
Didn't Barnier say that they would look favourably on an extension?
If so she needs to get back to terra firma, block calls from Sir Graham and extend before PMQs. Or soon after. It is her only chance. Because just like we know the EU has the internet, so does the ERG and the mooted cosmetic changes in the backstop terms are very unlikely to fly with them.
The Council has said it will consider an extension only if there's been a material change in circumstances for the UK. Which there has not. The deal is done as far as they're concerned.
And an extension requires formal unanimity of all 27 countries.
Only in the Council of Ministers, so not a formal ratification or requiring their parliaments to get involved. In practice, likely to be quite easy to get, I'd expect, provided it is for a limited time and with a specific purpose. Still, you can never be sure.
Macron needs the domestic uptick from telling Les Rosbifs where they can stick their extension....
Hmm, not so sure about that. They have hi-vis jackets in the Champagne and Bordeaux areas, as well as in the tourist areas.
Sorry: no. Johnson has said over the years whatever he thought his audience wanted to hear. He has spoken in favour of immigration.
Hannan has made all sorts of points about being able to get better trade deals outside the EU but it has become perfectly clear that he has no understanding of our current arrangements and has said contradictory things over the years. Neither have come up with any sort of coherent plan.
It is easy to criticise the EU. I have done so myself. But Johnson et al have a total lack of empathy with why the EU is at is, what it is trying to achieve and why the insults they have lobbed at the EU are so wrong, offensive and counter-productive. There are issues with the EU's direction of travel and the UK's view of itself, what Romano Prodi called an issue of "identity" but there are ways of dealing with those which require hard work and hard thinking not the sort of destructively frivolous approach being taken by those pushing Brexit.
I can empathise with the fears of those who worry about the EU's direction of travel. I share some of them. What I can't abide are those who don't bother to do the hard, fresh thinking needed to see how best to come to a workable long-term relationship between the UK and the EU. What is Britain's strategy towards the EU? God knows. The Brexiteers' strategy (and I am being kind in calling it thus) is to wish that Europe just didn't exist and we could ignore it. To call it childish is to insult the intelligence of most children.
That's fair, and I share your views with regard to the EU and to the ERG.
ps - one of the ironies of Boris being painted as the kingpin of the bigoted anti-immigrant Brexit movement is that he was the man who, in the face of huge opposition, suggested an amnesty for illegal immigrants. I think Boris is self-serving, ambitious, incoherent and lazy but I also think he's a classical liberal with a definite generosity of spirit.
I am greatly saddened to see TM meeting EU leaders and receiving a wall of 'no change'.
I do believe it is now in the national interest she stands down and hands the batton over and the Xmas break gives the party some time to appoint an interim leader
She has made a misjudgement by consistently rebutting a second referendum and alienating that wing of the party. The party is fracturing and needs a new direction
I have loyally supported TM and admire so many of her attributes including her brexit knowledge, her politeness and indeed kindness, but for all our sakes, and indeed hers, now is the time to make way for a new start
What is the logical maximum number of contenders for the Tory party election? Could loyalists flood it with, say 50, thereby ensuring that no election would result before March 29th?
No
They whittle them down very quickly
Only twice a week, on Tuesday and Thursday. But if there were 100 nominated MPs, perhaps they'd accelerate the process somewhat.
Yes, I read as such, could have a vote every two hours if necessary. The tricky part would be doing the members' vote quickly; I would have thought a televised hustings and then a week to return postal ballots would be manageable, though the Xmas post isn't ideal for that! Maybe an announcement in the first week of the New Year?
I have advocated in the past that members should only get the vote in Opposition for almost exactly these reasons (plus of course the potential problem of a new PM manifestly not being the preference of their MPs), but we are where we are...
I am greatly saddened to see TM meeting EU leaders and receiving a wall of 'no change'.
I do believe it is now in the national interest she stands down and hands the batton over and the Xmas break gives the party some time to appoint an interim leader
She has made a misjudgement by consistently rebutting a second referendum and alienating that wing of the party. The party is fracturing and needs a new direction
I have loyally supported TM and admire so many of her attributes including her brexit knowledge, her politeness and indeed kindness, but for all our sakes, and indeed hers, now is the time to make way for a new start
Big_G, nobody could ever doubt your loyalty to the PM. Above and beyond the call of duty, Sir.
That she has lost you means she has now lost literally EVERYBODY.
I am greatly saddened to see TM meeting EU leaders and receiving a wall of 'no change'.
I do believe it is now in the national interest she stands down and hands the batton over and the Xmas break gives the party some time to appoint an interim leader
She has made a misjudgement by consistently rebutting a second referendum and alienating that wing of the party. The party is fracturing and needs a new direction
I have loyally supported TM and admire so many of her attributes including her brexit knowledge, her politeness and indeed kindness, but for all our sakes, and indeed hers, now is the time to make way for a new start
Big_G, nobody could ever doubt your loyalty to the PM. Above and beyond the call of duty, Sir.
That she has lost you means she has now lost literally EVERYBODY.
It gives me no pleasure and I believe she was given a poisoned chalice that no one else could have handled it better, but at this point the conservative party need a unity candidate
I should also say I do try to contribute to this forum with honesty, even when it is difficult
I am greatly saddened to see TM meeting EU leaders and receiving a wall of 'no change'.
I do believe it is now in the national interest she stands down and hands the batton over and the Xmas break gives the party some time to appoint an interim leader
She has made a misjudgement by consistently rebutting a second referendum and alienating that wing of the party. The party is fracturing and needs a new direction
I have loyally supported TM and admire so many of her attributes including her brexit knowledge, her politeness and indeed kindness, but for all our sakes, and indeed hers, now is the time to make way for a new start
That's it. She's done. Stick a fork in her. If she has lost the great Big G of PB, she has lost the entire Tory party.
Time for a new man. Or woman.
Please do not stick a fork in her.
She deserves respect and is in essence a decent and honest person but has been overtaken by events
(Incidentally I think we can add the rights and responsibilities of the Speaker's Chair to the bumper book of Things Mrs Leadsom Does Not Understand).
He's an odious little twerp. Once again Leadsom is thoroughly sound. The extent to which she's attacked by remainers is a measure of how afraid they are of her. See also Rees Mogg.
"Once again Leadsom is thoroughly sound."
ha haha hahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Case in point.
Afraid of Leadsom? Wasn't she senior partner of Goldman Sachs?
What does that have to do with anything?
I am reminded of David Brent and Gareth - difference between assistant sales manager and assistant to the sales manager.
Compared to the CVs of spreadsheet Phil and other assorted stars in the current firmament, I don't care if she was assistant to the head of paperclips. The going over she gets is silly and transparent. She's smart, pleasantly spoken, and by the accounts I trust, has done a creditable job in whichever role she has been given. JRM is another one who is heaped with undeserved approbrium. By the contrast, the likes of Nicky Morgan and spreadsheet Phil, both gormless charisma vacuums, get a pass because of their views on the EU. Ho hum.
Comments
http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1979/1979-conservative-manifesto.shtml
NEW THREAD
Three options stand before Parliament. We have three months to decide. And May god have mercy on our souls.
ps - one of the ironies of Boris being painted as the kingpin of the bigoted anti-immigrant Brexit movement is that he was the man who, in the face of huge opposition, suggested an amnesty for illegal immigrants. I think Boris is self-serving, ambitious, incoherent and lazy but I also think he's a classical liberal with a definite generosity of spirit.
I do believe it is now in the national interest she stands down and hands the batton over and the Xmas break gives the party some time to appoint an interim leader
She has made a misjudgement by consistently rebutting a second referendum and alienating that wing of the party. The party is fracturing and needs a new direction
I have loyally supported TM and admire so many of her attributes including her brexit knowledge, her politeness and indeed kindness, but for all our sakes, and indeed hers, now is the time to make way for a new start
I have advocated in the past that members should only get the vote in Opposition for almost exactly these reasons (plus of course the potential problem of a new PM manifestly not being the preference of their MPs), but we are where we are...
That she has lost you means she has now lost literally EVERYBODY.
I should also say I do try to contribute to this forum with honesty, even when it is difficult
She deserves respect and is in essence a decent and honest person but has been overtaken by events