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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    eek said:

    leavers do not seem so worried so may not go out and vote....
    You don't think they might be disillusioned with referendums and their impact on government policy ?

    It's a view.
  • Agreed. I’ve ran thousands of ROI calculations on solar PV for domestic and commercial. I know what I’m talking about.
    And I've watched Martin Lewis, so I think I win :)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177
    notme said:


    No. A website that is that over represented by wealthier people who are able to use capital to generate an investment income that drives up everyone else’s energy bills and masquerade that as some kind of virtuous eneviromental statement.
    Yeah. It *was* essentially a large ROI courtesy of the taxpayer. Subsidising a fledgling renewables industry. There are of course pros and cons to that.
  • This is one hell of a game of chicken isn't it....

    May swerved on the vote and Corbyn on confidence, thereby being two people to fail different games of chicken at once...
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    With all due respect it is May who is playing chicken with Parliament over ‘No Deal’. It is her who is running down the clock.
    Yes it's clearly May that's taking us to the brink. She has several options open to her all of which she is completely ignoring.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471

    There are no good soundbites coming out of Labour though.
    I agree. "We are going to negotiate a better deal than the Tories that respects workers rights..."

    doesn't butter my parsnips



  • Donny43 said:

    Are you misreading the chart? The yellow spot is on the left size of the zero mark for the Suez Crisis, Great Depression and Cuban Missile Crisis as well as WWI/WWII.
    Younger people will not remember what it was like at the time of Suez etc..
  • Cyclefree said:

    The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.

    Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
    I agree. They are a party within a party. The problem is that a lot of Tory activists share their views in the same way as many Labour activists share the views of Momentum. Like a festering old cup of tea, British political activism has become a concentrated scum. A splintering realignment of British politics is well overdue, but sadly it is not going to happen, because most moderate people "don't do politics".
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    notme said:

    I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    Donny43 said:

    Yes, it's easy to suppress turnout amongst your opposition if you make clear they won't be allowed to win even if they win.
    Leavers don't think it is as serious an issue as Remainers do. I agree some will be additionally demotivated by having a second referendum making the differential turnout even greater.

    I posted it for betting purposes rather a comment on ethics.

  • Was Thatcher a swivel-eyed loon in your view then?
    Mrs Thatcher was arguably the luckiest prime minister in British history, whatever you think of her politics. Quite independently of government, the 1980s gave us enormous technological advances and a magic money tree.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited December 2018

    This is one hell of a game of chicken isn't it....

    Chlorinated or not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
    Indeed - it's only a protectionist trading cartel for goodness sake. Not a war where people die.

    The nation , fuelled by a demented media, has lost the plot.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    With all due respect it is May who is playing chicken with Parliament over ‘No Deal’. It is her who is running down the clock.
    Exactly ,May marches her useful idiots up to the top of the hill, then makes them look plain stupid.
    What a boss to work for, changes her mind from one hour to the next.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
    I have three children who are starting to make their way in the world. I worry a great deal about them if our politicians land us in a mess for, as far as I can see, no very good reason.

    And I fear a Corbyn government. Corbyn and his close advisors are politicians whose default instincts are not democratic or liberal and whose moral judgment is seriously flawed. Such people can do great harm to a country and to the values I care about. They have done great damage to the Labour party, a party I used to vote for. People like them have damaged other countries where they have obtained power. I don’t want this to happen to the country I live in, the country I care for, the country where my children are trying to make their future.

    Compounding this by landing us in a No Deal Brexit for which we are unprepared in a world where the long-standing post-war setllement is under strain and at risk of fracturing and where some of our potential leaders seem to think they should be on the side of those doing the fracturing is utterly foolish. That is what some Tories - and the ERG in particular - are doing for not better reason than an utterly irrational hatred of the EU.

    Too many politicians and commentators are viewing this as a game. But it isn’t. Peoples’ lives and futures matter and depend on what politicians do and don’t do. I saw how people close to me (both at he start and end of their lives) suffered when we had serious economic dislocation in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    edited December 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Interesting Ashcroft poll out today.

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/12/what-should-happen-next-what-really-matters-and-how-bad-is-this-crisis-my-new-brexit-deal-poll/

    Lots of data. But what caught my eye, towards the bottom under the heading "Don't Panic", is the question "Do you think Brexit is more serious or less serious than each of the following?"

    The financial crisis, winter of discontent, miners' strike, Suez etc.

    Remainers think Brexit is much more serious than Leavers compared with all previous crises (except WW1 and WW2 which everyone accepts were more serious).

    My take is that in a referendum there will be a differential turnout in favour of Remainers.

    Interesting that controlling EU immigration only just makes it into to the top five 'most important Brexit outcomes' for Leavers and is not in the top five for voters overall.

    Have attitudes changed since the infamous BES Leaver wordmap or are Ashcroft's respondents being circumspect?

    Edit: Forgetting Brexit for a moment, the survey provides a good insight into how people view the relative seriousness of the crises of the past 100 years.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080
    Donny43 said:

    Are you misreading the chart? The yellow spot is on the left size of the zero mark for the Suez Crisis, Great Depression and Cuban Missile Crisis as well as WWI/WWII.
    My comment about WW1 and WW2 is misleading as it also applies to Suez etc as you point out. But my main point is that for all crises (except WW! and WW2) Remainers think Brexit is more serious than Leavers do (even if they think it is less serious than Suez etc). So my point about differential turnout still holds.
  • Younger people will not remember what it was like at the time of Suez etc..
    To actually remember the Suez era, you'd have to about 70. It's fair to say most respondents are reliant on the history books for the comparison.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698


    Was Thatcher a swivel-eyed loon in your view then?
    Friend of Pinochet.

    Apologist for apartheid.

    "We are a grandmother"

    Of course she was.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Younger people will not remember what it was like at the time of Suez etc..
    I thought that although a student I was going to be called up. An uncle, with 100% disability pension from his WWII wounds, sustained in Normandy was called up for a medical He took his artificial leg off and went to the medical on his crutches.
    There was, he reported, some very bad language about the documentation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    Sorry to be something of a broken record, but what is the payback period on investment for both installations? (If you don't mind me asking)
    I get the income for 25 years. I have already paid back the cost of installing the panels (after about 6 years) And that’s without taking the reduced electricity bills into account, which result from the panels and a lot of insulation I put in the house at the same time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Friend of Pinochet.

    Apologist for apartheid.

    "We are a grandmother"

    Of course she was.
    I think it fair to say that she wasn't when she started. She listened to Sir Keith Joseph too much, though, and not enough to Willie Whitelaw.
  • Donny43 said:

    Yes, it's easy to suppress turnout amongst your opposition if you make clear they won't be allowed to win even if they win.
    This is the nonsense that is now being trotted out by hardline leavers, ie., that because they don't have their utopian scorched earth Brexit there has been some sort of reversal. There hasn't. TMay's Brexit is exactly what the 52% voted for because what Brexit actually was, was never made clear. The likes of Daniel Hannon and even Farage tried to convince us we could be like Norway. It was there "don't scare the horses" approach, which was an effective approach. It was only after the vote that they have attempted to make it very unlike Norway.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Mrs Thatcher was arguably the luckiest prime minister in British history, whatever you think of her politics. Quite independently of government, the 1980s gave us enormous technological advances and a magic money tree.
    Could she have made the most of it if she had propped up failing legacy industries, though?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Friend of Pinochet.

    Apologist for apartheid.

    "We are a grandmother"

    Of course she was.
    In that case we could really do with a swivel eyed loon in charge of the negotiations right now.
  • I agree. They are a party within a party. The problem is that a lot of Tory activists share their views in the same way as many Labour activists share the views of Momentum. Like a festering old cup of tea, British political activism has become a concentrated scum. A splintering realignment of British politics is well overdue, but sadly it is not going to happen, because most moderate people "don't do politics".
    Except we have just lived through two decades of centrism. The Cameroons are Blairites and the Blairites are Cameroons, as we used to post.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Roger said:

    I agree. "We are going to negotiate a better deal than the Tories that respects workers rights..."

    doesn't butter my parsnips



    Can you get Parsnips in France? I thought they considered them to only be palatable to cattle and the like.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    May swerved on the vote and Corbyn on confidence, thereby being two people to fail different games of chicken at once...
    Chickens swerving before coming home to roost.

    Or something.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302

    This is the nonsense that is now being trotted out by hardline leavers, ie., that because they don't have their utopian scorched earth Brexit there has been some sort of reversal. There hasn't. TMay's Brexit is exactly what the 52% voted for because what Brexit actually was, was never made clear. The likes of Daniel Hannon and even Farage tried to convince us we could be like Norway. It was there "don't scare the horses" approach, which was an effective approach. It was only after the vote that they have attempted to make it very unlike Norway.
    Good post!
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Barnesian said:

    My comment about WW1 and WW2 is misleading as it also applies to Suez etc as you point out. But my main point is that for all crises (except WW! and WW2) Remainers think Brexit is more serious than Leavers do (even if they think it is less serious than Suez etc). So my point about differential turnout still holds.
    That's not a great revelation, though, is it? People who voted Leave are less likely to believe the apocalyptic predictions made by Remain campaigners.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Xenon said:

    Yes it's clearly May that's taking us to the brink. She has several options open to her all of which she is completely ignoring.
    I include May in my criticism.
  • Cyclefree said:

    I have three children who are starting to make their way in the world. I worry a great deal about them if our politicians land us in a mess for, as far as I can see, no very good reason.

    And I fear a Corbyn government. Corbyn and his close advisors are politicians whose default instincts are not democratic or liberal and whose moral judgment is seriously flawed. Such people can do great harm to a country and to the values I care about. They have done great damage to the Labour party, a party I used to vote for. People like them have damaged other countries where they have obtained power. I don’t want this to happen to the country I live in, the country I care for, the country where my children are trying to make their future.

    Compounding this by landing us in a No Deal Brexit for which we are unprepared in a world where the long-standing post-war setllement is under strain and at risk of fracturing and where some of our potential leaders seem to think they should be on the side of those doing the fracturing is utterly foolish. That is what some Tories - and the ERG in particular - are doing for not better reason than an utterly irrational hatred of the EU.

    Too many politicians and commentators are viewing this as a game. But it isn’t. Peoples’ lives and futures matter and depend on what politicians do and don’t do. I saw how people close to me (both at he start and end of their lives) suffered when we had serious economic dislocation in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    philiph said:

    Can you get Parsnips in France? I thought they considered them to only be palatable to cattle and the like.
    They're ok as roasted chips, but when they are boiled and mashed they are disgusting.


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Good choice seeing Rutte first up
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Donny43 said:

    Could she have made the most of it if she had propped up failing legacy industries, though?
    Maybe invested the oil windfall in infrastructure like the Norwegians did.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    edited December 2018

    This is the nonsense that is now being trotted out by hardline leavers, ie., that because they don't have their utopian scorched earth Brexit there has been some sort of reversal. There hasn't. TMay's Brexit is exactly what the 52% voted for because what Brexit actually was, was never made clear. The likes of Daniel Hannon and even Farage tried to convince us we could be like Norway. It was there "don't scare the horses" approach, which was an effective approach. It was only after the vote that they have attempted to make it very unlike Norway.
    I'm not a "hardline Leaver". I would have been very happy with EEA. But I'm very much against Parliament nullifying the 2016 result either directly or by putting Remain back on the ballot paper.

    The person who took Norway (pure Norway, not this nonsensical "Norway Plus") off the table was May.
  • personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    TGOHF said:

    Can you imagine the deal May would have come back with had the ERG stayed quiet for the last 18 months ?

    It would probably involve Princes Harry and William personally carrying Juncker's sedan chair around Brussels.

    Whilst May is still grovelling travelling around the EU desperate for help, don't give the Clown Prince of Luxembourg any ideas......
  • Cyclefree said:

    The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.

    Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
    Or penguins
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    They're ok as roasted chips, but when they are boiled and mashed they are disgusting.


    mixed with carrots and turnip butter and cream theyre pretty nice.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    This is the nonsense that is now being trotted out by hardline leavers, ie., that because they don't have their utopian scorched earth Brexit there has been some sort of reversal. There hasn't. TMay's Brexit is exactly what the 52% voted for because what Brexit actually was, was never made clear. The likes of Daniel Hannon and even Farage tried to convince us we could be like Norway. It was there "don't scare the horses" approach, which was an effective approach. It was only after the vote that they have attempted to make it very unlike Norway.

    Isn’t it nicer when you just make your points without wishing premature death on older people and calling white men with blood pressure ‘gammons’?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    What FIT and Generation Tariff rate do you get? It is very easy to reccomend them when your rate is x4 higher than what people now get. It changes the economics massively.
    The use of excess electricity for hot water, as mentioned, provides a better return than the FIT, which vanishes in you don't get in before March anyway.
  • Ms Cyclefree: Not feverish. Bit of a cheek that you were accused of that from a man that constantly rants about "the Establishment", while supporting the Old Etonians Johnson and Rees-Mogg!

    The "good reason" that these cretins and charlatans have landed us in this mess (and I include Corbyn in this) is that they are trying to advance their own warped world view that coincidently aligns with their own career advancement. Either that or they are just plain stupid (Corbyn a good candidate for that one)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    mixed with carrots and turnip butter and cream theyre pretty nice.
    Not sure about the cream, but I'd give it a go. Mind I'll give almost any food a go if I see someone else eating it first.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and their friends which seems to think that they can ignore the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Britain gets everything it wants and utterly ignores everyone else’s wishes. It was Rees-Mogg who made some utterly stupid statement about having a border like in the Troubles. For the love of God! People like him are making Britain a laughing stock.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    We are the ones leaving. The ball is in our court. This wasn't their decision. If I buy a house from a seller we are on a level playing field. If I knock on the door of someone who isn't selling their house the ball is in my court to convince them why they should and they can say no to anything I offer and they are not being unreasonable to do so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,793

    mixed with carrots and turnip butter and cream theyre pretty nice.
    Roasted parsnips are fine.
    Too sweet to mix with carrots, though - for that, turnips and nutmeg are the preferred option.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2018

    They're ok as roasted chips, but when they are boiled and mashed they are disgusting.

    Parsnip Molly Parkin is absolutely delicious, either as an accompaniment to roast meat or sausages, or as a vegetarian dish in its own right. Here's a reasonable version of the recipe:

    https://suburbanlush.typepad.com/suburban_lush/2009/10/parsnips-molly-parkin.html

    Skip the sugar, and reduce the cream. We use a strong cheddar cheese rather than Gruyere. The dish also warms up very well, so you can make quite a lot and eat the rest a couple of days later.
  • Interesting that controlling EU immigration only just makes it into to the top five 'most important Brexit outcomes' for Leavers and is not in the top five for voters overall.

    Have attitudes changed since the infamous BES Leaver wordmap or are Ashcroft's respondents being circumspect?

    Edit: Forgetting Brexit for a moment, the survey provides a good insight into how people view the relative seriousness of the crises of the past 100 years.
    Immigration seems to dropping in saliance a bit across the West - factors being:
    * Fewer refugees, especially from Syrian (with a small timelag)
    * Better economy (with a bigger timelag)
    * Trump making anti-immigration unpopular outside his (mainly American) base, and pushing the centre/centre-left into actually making pro-immigration arguments more than they used to

    Cameron seems to have picked pretty much the exact anti-immigrant peak for the referendum, although in fairness it can't have been obvious at the time that it wasn't just going to keep increasing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    How does she lose a confidence vote ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    It wont be that,

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Do I understand the vote is now delayed until January 21st?

    Almost long enough to defenestrate the Queen and appoint the Pretender (whoever that may be).

    That additional time must make it tempting for several members of the PCP to become penfriends with Graham Brady.
  • Donny43 said:

    And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.

    Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    Ms Cyclefree: Not feverish. Bit of a cheek that you were accused of that from a man that constantly rants about "the Establishment", while supporting the Old Etonians Johnson and Rees-Mogg!

    The "good reason" that these cretins and charlatans have landed us in this mess (and I include Corbyn in this) is that they are trying to advance their own warped world view that coincidently aligns with their own career advancement. Either that or they are just plain stupid (Corbyn a good candidate for that one)

    always interesting to hear views from the dog loviing community

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    Parsnip Molly Parkin is absolutely delicious, either as an accompaniment to roast meat or sausages, or as a vegetarian dish in its own right. Here's a reasonable version of the recipe:

    https://suburbanlush.typepad.com/suburban_lush/2009/10/parsnips-molly-parkin.html

    Skip the sugar, and reduce the cream. We use a strong cheddar cheese rather than Gruyere. The dish also warms up very well, so you can make quite a lot and eat the rest a couple of days later.
    Thanks for that; might give it a go.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Cyclefree said:

    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and their friends which seems to think that they can ignore the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Britain gets everything it wants and utterly ignores everyone else’s wishes. It was Rees-Mogg who made some utterly stupid statement about having a border like in the Troubles. For the love of God! People like him are making Britain a laughing stock.

    Trying to properly exit the EU doesn't make us a laughing stock.
  • notme said:


    Isn’t it nicer when you just make your points without wishing premature death on older people and calling white men with blood pressure ‘gammons’?
    You are deliberately misquoting me. I have never wished premature death on older people (or anyone else) so don't be so pathetic. I have referred to gammons because I think it is an amusing and accurate description, and it has nothing to do with high blood pressure, except of the self-induced outrage variety, so again stop being silly. Faux outrage based on deliberate misunderstanding is clearly not just limited to those on the left!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    edited December 2018

    The use of excess electricity for hot water, as mentioned, provides a better return than the FIT, which vanishes in you don't get in before March anyway.
    I get the old very favourable FIT rate before the government started reducing it. Managed to get my panels installed just in time!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    It wont be that,

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.
    AIUI all Remain (or Stay) want is to stay in the EU and help in it's democratisation.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and their friends which seems to think that they can ignore the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Britain gets everything it wants and utterly ignores everyone else’s wishes. It was Rees-Mogg who made some utterly stupid statement about having a border like in the Troubles. For the love of God! People like him are making Britain a laughing stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2018
    The article is complete garbage. It confuses the two-thirds majority to force a GE with the simple majority required for a vote of no confidence. The only person who is surprised that a confidence vote requires only a simple majority is the author of the article.
  • Pulpstar said:

    How does she lose a confidence vote ?

    If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.

  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    notme said:


    Isn’t it nicer when you just make your points without wishing premature death on older people and calling white men with blood pressure ‘gammons’?
    I'm sure he's a troll of a frothing remainer.

    His username is a cross between Nigel Farage and remain.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.

    Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    AIUI all Remain (or Stay) want is to stay in the EU and help in it's democratisation.
    and how are they going to do that ?
  • Xenon said:

    Trying to properly exit the EU doesn't make us a laughing stock.
    It most definitely has. It is one of the most outrageous aspects to this whole charade. Political pigmies who claim to be patriots making their country look stupid and politically immature. Statesmen must be spinning in their graves.
  • Mrs Thatcher was arguably the luckiest prime minister in British history, whatever you think of her politics. Quite independently of government, the 1980s gave us enormous technological advances and a magic money tree.
    Thatcher was a green evangelist, replacing coal with less polluting gas and oil to power our power stations but was not thanked by the left wing parties and it's still not recognised by them.
  • This is complete bollocks, eg:
    The Act, which was designed to make it harder for a government to call a snap general election, requires two thirds of MPs to back a vote of no confidence in a government before they can trigger a general election.
    The 2/3 isn't for a vote of no confidence, it's a vote for a new election.
    This sets a very high bar, which is partly why the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is currently holding back from triggering such a vote despite the chaos inside May's government and the prime minister's waning authority.
    That's not why he's not triggering a vote of no confidence, most likely he's not triggering a vote of no confidence either because he doesn't think he'd win it, or alternatively if he has some reason to think the DUP might jump, because it doesn't do any harm to watch the government stagger uselessly on for a while before they shoot it in the head.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    AIUI all Remain (or Stay) want is to stay in the EU and help in it's democratisation.
    Yeah, good luck with that.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The most recent Panelbase survey has been omitted from the table :

    SNP: 37% (=)
    LAB: 26% (+1)
    CON: 26% (-2)
    LDM: 6% (-1)
    GRN: 2% (=)
    UKIP: 2% (=)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    and how are they going to do that ?
    I'll freely admit there's one nasty hurdle; electing sensible people as MEP's instead of Farage and his crew of free-loaders.
  • If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.

    It's a vote of confidence in the government, not the PM. But yes, losing it would not necessarily mean the Tories having to leave government, they'd have 14 days to put together a government under a different PM (or indeed under Theresa May) which would then have to win a second vote of confidence.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Xenon said:

    Trying to properly exit the EU doesn't make us a laughing stock.
    It does the way we are going about it. We are not behaving like a serious country but like a confused, entitled, ignorant and petulant teenager. We are in danger of trashing our own USP, of trashing the very qualities we will need if we are to make a go of it outside the EU, the very qualities which we could bring to the EU if we applied some thought rather than viewing Europe as some sort of enemy. We have no strategy which is why we are careering all over the place. It is pathetic and damaging.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    I'll freely admit there's one nasty hurdle; electing sensible people as MEP's instead of Farage and his crew of free-loaders.
    Youre going all Brexity again. Farage isnt the problem.
  • Donny43 said:

    Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.

    They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?

  • It's a vote of confidence in the government, not the PM. But yes, losing it would not necessarily mean the Tories having to leave government, they'd have 14 days to put together a government under a different PM (or indeed under Theresa May) which would then have to win a second vote of confidence.
    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521

    I'll freely admit there's one nasty hurdle; electing sensible people as MEP's instead of Farage and his crew of free-loaders.
    As @Alanbrooke has pointed out, if we do stay in, at least there should be some fun in the EU Parliament.
  • If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.

    Who are you thinking pulls the plug here? If it's the DUP then sure they could do it, and then let the Tories know which alternative leaders they considered acceptable and see if they wanted to support them as PM, but the Tories might not be impressed by the idea of the DUP choosing their PM for them.

    If it's the Tories then they don't need to bring down the government to get rid of TMay, they just need to bring down TMay. But it doesn't currently seem like they want to do that, presumably because all the alternatives are worse, and the process of making the switch wastes time and looks terrible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,793
    Fairly scathing article about Trump's search for a new Chief of Staff:
    https://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/420684-the-memo-ayers-decision-casts-harsh-light-on-trump
    “You’re not becoming the chief of staff for the president of the United States,” one Republican operative told The Hill on Monday. “You’re becoming the chief of staff for Individual-1.”...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705

    AIUI all Remain (or Stay) want is to stay in the EU and help in it's democratisation.
    Is that attainable?

    Almost by definition as the membership becomes larger and more disparate the only way to govern it becomes less democratic. The irreconcilable differences become larger, and by the (perceived?) suppression of those differences over time they become grievances which become causes and create ill will, tension and ultimately divergence in a peaceful or violent manner.
  • Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,521

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    Maybe not 30-40, but I would not be surprised if Conservative MPs refused to support the government in a VONC. They'd be ending their careers, but we're not dealing with very rational people.

    So, Corbyn ought to give it a try.
  • Xenon said:

    I'm sure he's a troll of a frothing remainer.

    His username is a cross between Nigel Farage and remain.
    Your intellect and observational power is as overwhelming as your wit.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Sean_F said:

    As @Alanbrooke has pointed out, if we do stay in, at least there should be some fun in the EU Parliament.
    Not really as they don't have any real power anyway. The commission decides everything and we can't vote them out.

    100% of MEPs could want a less centralised EU and yet ever closer integration will continue regardless.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I do not see how, if May doesn't bring the MV to a vote before christmas, her party doesn't VONC her before the end of the session.

    Surely NOBODY, regardless of Brexityness, wants this humiliation to drag on over the season of goodwill?
  • Sean_F said:

    Maybe not 30-40, but I would not be surprised if Conservative MPs refused to support the government in a VONC. They'd be ending their careers, but we're not dealing with very rational people.

    So, Corbyn ought to give it a try.
    Are they ending their careers though? they think May is broken. They think there is a candidate in the Tory party that can turn things around.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Cyclefree said:

    It does the way we are going about it. We are not behaving like a serious country but like a confused, entitled, ignorant and petulant teenager. We are in danger of trashing our own USP, of trashing the very qualities we will need if we are to make a go of it outside the EU, the very qualities which we could bring to the EU if we applied some thought rather than viewing Europe as some sort of enemy. We have no strategy which is why we are careering all over the place. It is pathetic and damaging.
    Well yes I agree.

    But this is what happens when you have someone in charge who sees Brexit as a damage limitation exercise rather than an opportunity.
  • Donny43 said:

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.

    Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    *if* May, or the next Tory PM, either explicitly, or fairly obviously, were angling for No Deal, I think a bloc of Tory remainers will resign the whip and VONC them.

    But, I don't think it will come to that. May is just as terrified of no deal as the rest of the leavers. If it's the 28th March and No Deal is the only alternative, May will revoke A50 rather than let that happen.

    (The mechanism by which May somehow carries on can kicking till 28th March is left as an exercise to the reader)
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
    We could have a Brexit and a hard border in Ireland. It's Ireland and the EU that are making this inevitable by refusing to discuss any other solution for the border.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    Thatcher was a green evangelist, replacing coal with less polluting gas and oil to power our power stations but was not thanked by the left wing parties and it's still not recognised by them.
    Top trolling.

    The idea that the dash for gas was driven by environmental considerations is laughable.

    British coal was replaced by* imported coal as the fuel for power generation.


    *I'm never sure whether 'by' or 'with' is the correct word to use here.
  • Who are you thinking pulls the plug here? If it's the DUP then sure they could do it, and then let the Tories know which alternative leaders they considered acceptable and see if they wanted to support them as PM, but the Tories might not be impressed by the idea of the DUP choosing their PM for them.

    If it's the Tories then they don't need to bring down the government to get rid of TMay, they just need to bring down TMay. But it doesn't currently seem like they want to do that, presumably because all the alternatives are worse, and the process of making the switch wastes time and looks terrible.

    I am assuming all opposition parties vote against the government. If a few Tory MPs do as well on the basis that it only means May going, but not the government, then that’s it.

  • Donny43 said:

    Could she have made the most of it if she had propped up failing legacy industries, though?
    Red Robbo was right that British Leyland needed investment not cuts. It might have been like Volkswagen today, though perhaps without the diesel scandal.

    But my point is that even if Mrs Thatcher had done nothing at all, Britain would have been a far better place at the end of her term than at the beginning. In the 1980s, things just got better. International travel became affordable. Food became more exotic and adventurous. Cars stopped rusting and luxury features like electric windows trickled down to basic models. Ambulance crews became paramedics; police became better trained and more specialised.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Donny43 said:

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.
This discussion has been closed.