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Oh wait ...
The scary thing for Labour is that both Nicola and Ruth are formidable campaigners whilst Leonard has so far had absolutely no impact whatsoever and the magic grandpa act seems to have very little traction in Scotland. The risks of Labour going backwards in Scotland in any election are indeed real.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/dec/11/what-fresh-brexit-hell-is-this-what-the-papers-say-about-mays-cancelled-vote
I think Graham Brady’s postman is going to have a busy morning...
FPT:
It’s quite possible that we now enter a period of utter stalemate with a ticking clock. Someone is going to have to do something to break the logjam, remembering that No Deal is the default result and the Executive control the Parliamentary timetable.
Even if the “meaningful” vote were to have passed, there’s still a lot of legislation resulting which needs to pass to avoid no-deal, and as much as some remainers like to think that a single vote in Parliament will be sufficient to revoke A50, it’s likely to require primary legislation which practically can only be proposed by the government.
I think the Conservatives are more likely to go with a replacement PM for a harder renegotiation than a softer one (say a Gove or Davis rather than a Hammond or Rudd), but I think the PCP as a whole will support whoever is there, rather than vote against the government in a vote of confidence and force an election where Corbyn might get in.
The FTPA is a massive complication in all this, and will prolong the stalemate so long as no Conservatives actually cross the floor. If I were Uncle Vince I’d be having a good long chat with Sarah Wollaston and Heidi Allen, to really throw the cat among the pigeons.
Oh, and I just noticed that the pound dropped two cents on the dollar yesterday, so today’s a good day to buy the Christmas holiday pounds. Not all is bad in the world!
Sturgeon is competent, but tainted by the patina of government, Davidson otherwise busy at present, and it is very likely that May's deal is even less popular in Scotland than south of the border.
Any GE would be wide open and unpredictable. Unlike a #peoplesvote it would not focus on Brexit.
I hope MPs haven’t made plans for Christmas.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
It’s also good news for exporters, although less so for consumers of Chinese tat.
Oh, and 2 cents vs the dollar is hardly “collapsing”, it’s 1.5%.
"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."
I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.
A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.
The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.
A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.
And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?
Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.
The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.
And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.
Tick, tock.......tick, tock......
Re:violence
Where we differ is conflation
I see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it’s a nutter
You see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it represents the position of a meaningful proportion of Brexiteers
A GE in the next few months I would be clueless and probably wouldn't bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/uk-nuclear-plant-hitachi-wylfa-anglesey
Even worse, she's heading for another kicking from the EU. Calm down, dear, they're not worth it.
Just get on with it. 1
Wait to be pushed into it. 3
Don't bother. 4
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1072193478417891329/photo/1
On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.
On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.
As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.
It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.
And they'd be right. Welcome to Unimaginable World of Pain.
The only hope is a new PM, new negotiators, new negotiation with EU that comes up with a new settlement of the Irish border. That the MPs can rush through with a collective "phew!!"
- TM is VONC'd by her own party (or by Corbyn) and can only win that vote by promising a specific date for the meaningful vote
- TM loses a VONC by the Tories and an interim PM (subject to the election of a new Tory leader) puts her vote to the HoC; or (if this doesn't happen) A50 is extended given above
Jeremy Corbyn - (No Deal) Brexit's Bessy Mate.
😖
The current government is not irremoveable. Your first point might have more substance if the Tories had a large majority, but even then it would be flakey. Political events happen. Leaders change, as do government policies and aims. This time yesterday we were 100% certain to be having a vote on the WA today, remember.
Interesting that Gove was disappointed the vote is not going ahead- almost as if even he just wants it to be over now.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.
https://twitter.com/polprofsteve/status/1072400219579523078?s=21
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
Nobody wants to offer round the same old shit sandwiches though. Hence the letters haven't gone in before. But seeing Theresa May and Olly Robbins going back to the EU for "clarifications" and "assurances"....sheeesh. They both need to be made to Step. Away. From. Brexit......
I thought Mordaunt was their pick? I'm picking she refused to resign when she was told too.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
"For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime."
Bravo. You might be totally wrong, but so am I then. That's exactly my opinion. I voted for all of them but Brown, By the late nineties, I'd defected to Charlie K. Brown was certainly made barmy by the promotion. Kinnock stood up to Militant, Foot - well meaning, and Harold too clever for his own good possibly.
What's appeal of Davis?