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I gave the last thread header the title "nunc dimittis" for a reason. I'm not Theresa May's greatest fan but she has suffered enough now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, who could blame her?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Leader of the House is Andrea Leadsom.Pulpstar said:
The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
The prosecution rests.0 -
Will leave him more time to make his sandwich toasters.grabcocque said:112
George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464
Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
It's that George, right?0 -
Boris and then cancel and reinvoke A50 seems to be the solution.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No they don't, which is why Grieve and Bercow are two of the most powerful people in what lies ahead.Pulpstar said:
The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?0 -
What people should really be paying attention to is not the main vote on the deal, but the votes on the amendments. Those will give us a much better indication of where this is all leading.0
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There is some utility (for the nation, not May) in a vote going ahead and the votes being tallied.
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Do we know if any io this actually happened? Or is the media just in an excitable froth?grabcocque said:This is textbook May. Call an emergency all hands conference call, put the lobby on high alert, march everyone to the top of the hill and then...
"Nothing has changed."0 -
Probably do nothing and point the finger at each other.Richard_Nabavi said:What people should really be paying attention to is not the main vote on the deal, but the votes on the amendments. Those will give us a much better indication of where this is all leading.
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If you haven't picked up that many non-political people have had enough already, you need to get out more.MarqueeMark said:
Oh, I don't now.IanB2 said:
I suspect this is one movie for which there won't be much demand for a sequelgeoffw said:Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/
Brexit With a Vengeance.......0 -
Different "unnamed cabinet sources" are saying contradictory things. Whoever is briefing the vote is being pulled is on manouevres. I reckon it's Penny Mordaunt.KentRising said:
Do we know if any io this actually happened? Or is the media just in an excitable froth?grabcocque said:This is textbook May. Call an emergency all hands conference call, put the lobby on high alert, march everyone to the top of the hill and then...
"Nothing has changed."0 -
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."AlastairMeeks said:
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.grabcocque said:112
George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464
Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.0 -
If the vote were looking close, then maybe. But there's safety in numbers, so the cowards are more likely to vote no.MarqueeMark said:
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."AlastairMeeks said:
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.grabcocque said:112
George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464
Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.0 -
Those wimps will vote against. With the current tides, it's the easiest course of action.MarqueeMark said:
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."AlastairMeeks said:
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.grabcocque said:112
George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464
Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
There will be other wimps who have said nothing so far but who will abstain.0 -
Mr. Meeks, I backed Under 200 MPs supporting the deal when it was 7 on Betfair. Hedged a little while ago but was about 4 last I checked.0
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It's in London, within easy reach of the meeja. So...........KentRising said:
Do we know if any io this actually happened? Or is the media just in an excitable froth?grabcocque said:This is textbook May. Call an emergency all hands conference call, put the lobby on high alert, march everyone to the top of the hill and then...
"Nothing has changed."0 -
That looks to me like a very good bet indeed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I backed Under 200 MPs supporting the deal when it was 7 on Betfair. Hedged a little while ago but was about 4 last I checked.
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What time will the house start disposing of the MV amendments?0
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Boris is one of the few politicians right now who could get away with the first part. Not sure he would be able to secure the requisite parliamentary backing to renotify though.Xenon said:
Boris and then cancel and reinvoke A50 seems to be the solution.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Meeks, well, we'll see, but thanks to my peanut stakes and emaciated Betfair account I stand to make a fiver if it turns out that way
Still, no loss if it doesn't, so that's nice.
Surprised the Ladbrokes second referendum odds didn't change after the ECJ ruling, though.0 -
David Lidington was last matched at 12 for Next Prime Minister.0
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The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.0
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Turning and turning in the widening spinTheScreamingEagles said:
The PM cannot hear the Cabinet;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
Crash-out Brexit is loosed, and everywhere
The supply-chains of innocence are drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Referendum is at hand.
The Second Referendum! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of the Guardian
Troubles my sight: somewhere in bubble of London
A shape with Farage body and the head of a Mogg,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant activists.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough Boris, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Westminster to be born?0 -
There are five council by-elections this week; one on Wednesday and four on Thursday. Wonder if they'll give any indication of th wind direction. One in SW Scotland, one in the Midlands, one in London, one fringe London and one in the NE.0
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My guess is it was priced in after the advocate general's opinion. The full ECJ ruling was even more generous to the UK than the opinion.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, well, we'll see, but thanks to my peanut stakes and emaciated Betfair account I stand to make a fiver if it turns out that way
Still, no loss if it doesn't, so that's nice.
Surprised the Ladbrokes second referendum odds didn't change after the ECJ ruling, though.0 -
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I now fully expect the 48 letters to be in..Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072095308333625345
What a shitshow.0 -
Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.0 -
VONC by teatime.0
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The only way to put it to bed - sort of - is to stay in and start explaining via a leaflet to the whole population what will be done to deal with their concerns and what the facts are about the EU, e.g. its budget is tiny.IanB2 said:
If you haven't picked up that many non-political people have had enough already, you need to get out more.MarqueeMark said:
Oh, I don't now.IanB2 said:
I suspect this is one movie for which there won't be much demand for a sequelgeoffw said:Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/
Brexit With a Vengeance.......
Who realises that 'the deal' is the end of the beginning and is followed by years of trade talks with the Irish, the French, the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Spaniards about whatever is dear to them? There are 27 member states to deal with, not just Mr Michel Barnier.
So said an hour programme on BBC World Service I heard when I was suffering from insomnia. By the end of it I was ready to go back to sleep ... but if anyone has any different facts on the trade talks other than the BBC's do let us know.0 -
It is hard to think of a problem to which Boris is the answer but impossible to think of a problem to which he would be a worse answer than the current one.Polruan said:
Boris is one of the few politicians right now who could get away with the first part. Not sure he would be able to secure the requisite parliamentary backing to renotify though.Xenon said:
Boris and then cancel and reinvoke A50 seems to be the solution.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Anything akin to either Cameron's vision of Tories, or New Labour would be very welcome indeed...mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
May a Pheonix rise from the ashes.0 -
Where, I can't find him listed here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094AlastairMeeks said:David Lidington was last matched at 12 for Next Prime Minister.
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Jesus. Listening to radio 5. Even those who class themselves as experts are insulting and disparaging of people with different views.0
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Not without a vote, it isn't,AlastairMeeks said:
That looks to me like a very good bet indeed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I backed Under 200 MPs supporting the deal when it was 7 on Betfair. Hedged a little while ago but was about 4 last I checked.
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Now we wait to see their proposed programme motion to pull the vote.0
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Helllllloooooooo Boris.grabcocque said:VONC by teatime.
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Mrs May pulls the vote, then goes to the EU meeting and gains Cameron-esque "concessions" on the backstop, then schedules the vote for January.0
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Of course we can, and will.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.0 -
The ECJ would surely reject that as the EU(NOW)A would still be on the books allowing the PM to immediately trigger again.grabcocque said:
That's not clear actually. The ECJ ruling says "in accordance with our constutional procedures" which means that all May has to do is notify the Council of our decision to revoke Article 50, and BOOM, it's done.Donny43 said:
The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.kle4 said:
I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.Donny43 said:
If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.0 -
Oh yes we can; as far as the Tories are concerned the alternative is Corbyn and that mustn't be allowed to happen.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.0 -
A parliamentary lock from transition to backstop is along the lines of the concession I might expect. Once we're out the EU (Even in transition) the unification of Ireland could occur - at which point the backstop is not needed and the remainder of the UK leaves the EU.KentRising said:Mrs May pulls the vote, then goes to the EU meeting and gains Cameron-esque "concessions" on the backstop, then schedules the vote for January.
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Maybe the Tories then discover how much May's positive image, amongst those who haven't been following the twists and turns, is holding up their poll ratings.grabcocque said:VONC by teatime.
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OldKingCole said:
Oh yes we can; as far as the Tories are concerned the alternative is Corbyn and that mustn't be allowed to happen.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.0 -
Like you, I'm surprised at the reaction among Conservative MPs. There's nothing in the agreement that should have come as a surprise to anybody.AlastairMeeks said:
Of course we can, and will.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.0 -
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.0 -
Will somebody think of Graham’s shredder, it’s been taking one hell of a beating recently.Slackbladder said:
I now fully expect the 48 letters to be in..Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072095308333625345
What a shitshow.0 -
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.0 -
For the shitz and giggles, what's not to love?Pulpstar said:
Helllllloooooooo Boris.grabcocque said:VONC by teatime.
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It would be a fitting testimony to the inanity of Leave that it should visit both upon us - a Deal and a Government few wanted.0
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The thing is, even with the backstop sorted, May cannot win this vote. She needs to be told its over.0
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Imagine the lulz in Number 10 when they find out they've just lost a division on the programme motion to delay the vote.0
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Pulpstar said:
Where, I can't find him listed here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094AlastairMeeks said:David Lidington was last matched at 12 for Next Prime Minister.
I am on him at 140.
Events moving fast.0 -
Mr. Mark, Hunt or Mordaunt would be far superior*.
*And wallet-pleasing.0 -
What price Spurs and Brexit vote both through to next round by close tomorrow night?
I'm going out on a limb to say I'd want slightly better than evens to back the double!0 -
Many people I know are horrified by the prospect of Boris but in these polarised times he stands a good chance. His main issue will be getting to the final two, I think he'll be stopped (again).MarqueeMark said:
For the shitz and giggles, what's not to love?Pulpstar said:
Helllllloooooooo Boris.grabcocque said:VONC by teatime.
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The modern fashion is for something totally inane like 'Bright!'philiph said:
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
Vote Bright! for a better future!
(You read it here first).0 -
Mr. Topping, one more reason he should've had either a neutral body or the official Leave campaign put forward a firm prospectus. That would've both made it easier for him to win *and* for the contingency planning.0
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Towards the bottom between Steve Baker and Damian Hinds - he's easy for me to find as there is a large figure in green under his name (although not as much as in my Betfred account if what I expect to occur occurs).Pulpstar said:
Where, I can't find him listed here: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125575094AlastairMeeks said:David Lidington was last matched at 12 for Next Prime Minister.
And remember Lidington is only a play in the next PM market - he's the answer to TMay walking out of No10 today / tomorrow leaving this to someone else to deal with...0 -
grabcocque said:
They did rule in favour of the EU.
Discuss,grabcocque said:The full ECJ ruling was even more generous to the UK than the opinion.
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Fundamentally it's about trust. The backstop became a proxy for May's lack of trust in her party, but you're right that it could have been any of the deal's deficiencies. The backstop is simply the most obviously outrageous.Sean_F said:
If it wasn't the backstop, it would have been something else,DanSmith said:The thing is, even with the backstop sorted, May cannot win this vote. She needs to be told its over.
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That's hilarious. Can't resist accommodating you, my fine fellow.Scrapheap_as_was said:What price Spurs and Brexit vote both through to next round by close tomorrow night?
I'm going out on a limb to say I'd want slightly better than evens to back the double!
You can have 6/4. ;-)0 -
Who'd be a Tory whip this week?grabcocque said:
If the vote were looking close, then maybe. But there's safety in numbers, so the cowards are more likely to vote no.MarqueeMark said:
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."AlastairMeeks said:
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.grabcocque said:112
George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464
Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
Although, minimal sympathy. They should have had the fortitude to tell the PM her strategy was going to get crushed weeks ago. Epic fail on their part.0 -
But if he (and the EU) had negotiated some minor reforms we wouldn’t be in the situation. Part of the problem was what they agreed made some people even more willing to vote leave as they decided that the situation is unreformable.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
The problem is remain is not remain with the status quo. It is remain on the train to ever closer union. The EU are quite clear about that and only this weekend we had a big group of politicians and academics claiming actually the only way to make the europe work is much much bigger EU.0 -
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.Sean_F said:
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.Pulpstar said:
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.Slackbladder said:
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.grabcocque said:
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.Slackbladder said:
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.grabcocque said:
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?CarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.
Physician heal thyself!grabcocque said:
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
FI - EPP / 17% / 13
Lega - NI / 6% / 5
NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.0 -
The Centrist Mums and Dads?philiph said:
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.0 -
The ruling was based on the principle of ever closer union. So it's a ruling that ennobles the union's founding principle, rather than empower the union's organs. If you catch my meaning.CarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:They did rule in favour of the EU.
Discuss,grabcocque said:The full ECJ ruling was even more generous to the UK than the opinion.
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No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.0 -
People's Liberation Front of Maidenhead?philiph said:
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.0 -
How about the Liberal Democratic Party?mr-claypole said:
The Centrist Mums and Dads?philiph said:
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.0 -
As I said, that would have taken more than the four years he had.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.0 -
Morning all, I see the pound is in freefall against the dollar. What did May do today then?0
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Hello Jacob.Slackbladder said:
I now fully expect the 48 letters to be in..Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072095308333625345
What a shitshow.
Actually would hitting 47/48 actually give a 'cover' of sorts for delaying the Brexit vote?0 -
I don't think those people were ever going to vote Remain. It was just convenient for them to hang their decision on an event (Dave's Deal). Either that or they fundamentally misunderstood the EU if they supposedly were open to being a member and yet changing its core principles.FrancisUrquhart said:
But if he (and the EU) had negotiated some minor reforms we wouldn’t be in the situation. Part of the problem was what they agreed made some people even more willing to vote leave as they decided that the situation is unreformable.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
The problem is remain is not remain with the status quo. It is remain on the train to ever closer union. The EU are quite clear about that and only this weekend we had a big group of politicians and academics claiming actually the only way to make the europe work is much much bigger EU.0 -
+1DecrepitJohnL said:
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
Given that Brexiters find it so difficult to agree even with each other, they'd either still be at it or whatever they produced would have been deciselvely rejected0 -
It's easy to forget that it's not all about us.david_herdson said:
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.Sean_F said:
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.Pulpstar said:
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.Slackbladder said:
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.grabcocque said:
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.Slackbladder said:
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.grabcocque said:
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?CarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.
Physician heal thyself!grabcocque said:
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
FI - EPP / 17% / 13
Lega - NI / 6% / 5
NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
0 -
That wouldn't have worked - they'd have put forward a vision of unicorns prancing around rainbows with the EU paying us for a trade deal.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.0 -
I was in a Lib-Lab marginal for that election so I'm excusing myself for that reasongrabcocque said: 0 -
Even a badly damaged Conservative party combined with others such as Labour, Lib Dems etc. would see it probably strangled at birth. Unless it was seen as the replacement for the Conservatives via mass defections it is tough to get off the ground.mr-claypole said:
The Centrist Mums and Dads?philiph said:
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance?mr-claypole said:The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
Blair had some good 'uns like third way or progress if your after a centre market.0 -
She tried Macron, but all she could hear was the sound of smashing glass and tear gas canisters being fired.CarlottaVance said:0 -
"of peoples" - not "of states".grabcocque said:
The ruling was based on the principle of ever closer unionCarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:They did rule in favour of the EU.
Discuss,grabcocque said:The full ECJ ruling was even more generous to the UK than the opinion.
0 -
May to make a statement to the House at 3:30pm0
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She was asking for concessions on the backstop and got none because the EU senses the UK remaining right now.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Sorely tempted PtP but the time value of money means I couldn't possibly tie the £ up for some 36 hours....Peter_the_Punter said:
That's hilarious. Can't resist accommodating you, my fine fellow.Scrapheap_as_was said:What price Spurs and Brexit vote both through to next round by close tomorrow night?
I'm going out on a limb to say I'd want slightly better than evens to back the double!
You can have 6/4. ;-)0 -
Which in itself will provide reason to split the Tory party. Boris represents one of the major strands of opinion within the party membership, if not at Westminster.Pulpstar said:
Many people I know are horrified by the prospect of Boris but in these polarised times he stands a good chance. His main issue will be getting to the final two, I think he'll be stopped (again).MarqueeMark said:
For the shitz and giggles, what's not to love?Pulpstar said:
Helllllloooooooo Boris.grabcocque said:VONC by teatime.
I think many of the Stop Boris crowd will be surprised at how lonely they become though.
(And I think if we do end up having to eat something close to the shit-sandwich that May has negotiated, only Boris telling the membership "really, as much as I hate to say it, so much water has passed under the bridge, it's the best we can get from here" has much hope of keeping the Conservative Party together.)0 -
We'd need to check our bets to see which ones were tied specifically to Tuesday.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072095308333625345
What a shitshow.0 -
getting cameroons to accept Dave fked up is even harder than getting Labourites to accept they screwed the economy.TOPPING said:
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.grabcocque said:Utter utter shambolic shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.0 -
Also reports are that the Yellow Vests are going to from a party to stand in the EU elections. It will be eurosceptic.david_herdson said:
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.Sean_F said:
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.Pulpstar said:
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.Slackbladder said:
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.grabcocque said:
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.Slackbladder said:
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.grabcocque said:
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?CarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.
Physician heal thyself!grabcocque said:
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
FI - EPP / 17% / 13
Lega - NI / 6% / 5
NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.0 -
PM statement to HOC at 3.30pm0
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Wonder if Gove is under orders to make the longest speech of his life xD0
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Is it part of Article 50 that Theresa May has to be half an hour late for every single announcement or press conference?grabcocque said:May to make a statement to the House at 3:30pm
0 -
Doesn't there need to be a vote to pull the vote, now?
Frankly, I'm not sure the Govt win that vote...0 -
Thickies galore in the HoCDanSmith said:
No they don't, which is why Grieve and Bercow are two of the most powerful people in what lies ahead.Pulpstar said:
The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division.TheScreamingEagles said:
Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
We should pay MPs more to get a better quality0
