The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division. Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division. Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
No they don't, which is why Grieve and Bercow are two of the most powerful people in what lies ahead.
What people should really be paying attention to is not the main vote on the deal, but the votes on the amendments. Those will give us a much better indication of where this is all leading.
What people should really be paying attention to is not the main vote on the deal, but the votes on the amendments. Those will give us a much better indication of where this is all leading.
Probably do nothing and point the finger at each other.
This is textbook May. Call an emergency all hands conference call, put the lobby on high alert, march everyone to the top of the hill and then...
"Nothing has changed."
Do we know if any io this actually happened? Or is the media just in an excitable froth?
Different "unnamed cabinet sources" are saying contradictory things. Whoever is briefing the vote is being pulled is on manouevres. I reckon it's Penny Mordaunt.
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
If the vote were looking close, then maybe. But there's safety in numbers, so the cowards are more likely to vote no.
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
Those wimps will vote against. With the current tides, it's the easiest course of action.
There will be other wimps who have said nothing so far but who will abstain.
Boris and then cancel and reinvoke A50 seems to be the solution.
Boris is one of the few politicians right now who could get away with the first part. Not sure he would be able to secure the requisite parliamentary backing to renotify though.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Turning and turning in the widening spin The PM cannot hear the Cabinet; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, Crash-out Brexit is loosed, and everywhere The supply-chains of innocence are drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Referendum is at hand. The Second Referendum! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of the Guardian Troubles my sight: somewhere in bubble of London A shape with Farage body and the head of a Mogg, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant activists. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough Boris, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Westminster to be born?
There are five council by-elections this week; one on Wednesday and four on Thursday. Wonder if they'll give any indication of th wind direction. One in SW Scotland, one in the Midlands, one in London, one fringe London and one in the NE.
I suspect this is one movie for which there won't be much demand for a sequel
Oh, I don't now.
Brexit With a Vengeance.......
If you haven't picked up that many non-political people have had enough already, you need to get out more.
The only way to put it to bed - sort of - is to stay in and start explaining via a leaflet to the whole population what will be done to deal with their concerns and what the facts are about the EU, e.g. its budget is tiny.
Who realises that 'the deal' is the end of the beginning and is followed by years of trade talks with the Irish, the French, the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Spaniards about whatever is dear to them? There are 27 member states to deal with, not just Mr Michel Barnier.
So said an hour programme on BBC World Service I heard when I was suffering from insomnia. By the end of it I was ready to go back to sleep ... but if anyone has any different facts on the trade talks other than the BBC's do let us know.
Boris and then cancel and reinvoke A50 seems to be the solution.
Boris is one of the few politicians right now who could get away with the first part. Not sure he would be able to secure the requisite parliamentary backing to renotify though.
It is hard to think of a problem to which Boris is the answer but impossible to think of a problem to which he would be a worse answer than the current one.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
Anything akin to either Cameron's vision of Tories, or New Labour would be very welcome indeed...
If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.
I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.
The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.
That's not clear actually. The ECJ ruling says "in accordance with our constutional procedures" which means that all May has to do is notify the Council of our decision to revoke Article 50, and BOOM, it's done.
The ECJ would surely reject that as the EU(NOW)A would still be on the books allowing the PM to immediately trigger again.
Mrs May pulls the vote, then goes to the EU meeting and gains Cameron-esque "concessions" on the backstop, then schedules the vote for January.
A parliamentary lock from transition to backstop is along the lines of the concession I might expect. Once we're out the EU (Even in transition) the unification of Ireland could occur - at which point the backstop is not needed and the remainder of the UK leaves the EU.
Maybe the Tories then discover how much May's positive image, amongst those who haven't been following the twists and turns, is holding up their poll ratings.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
Many people I know are horrified by the prospect of Boris but in these polarised times he stands a good chance. His main issue will be getting to the final two, I think he'll be stopped (again).
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
The modern fashion is for something totally inane like 'Bright!'
Mr. Topping, one more reason he should've had either a neutral body or the official Leave campaign put forward a firm prospectus. That would've both made it easier for him to win *and* for the contingency planning.
Towards the bottom between Steve Baker and Damian Hinds - he's easy for me to find as there is a large figure in green under his name (although not as much as in my Betfred account if what I expect to occur occurs).
And remember Lidington is only a play in the next PM market - he's the answer to TMay walking out of No10 today / tomorrow leaving this to someone else to deal with...
The thing is, even with the backstop sorted, May cannot win this vote. She needs to be told its over.
If it wasn't the backstop, it would have been something else,
Fundamentally it's about trust. The backstop became a proxy for May's lack of trust in her party, but you're right that it could have been any of the deal's deficiencies. The backstop is simply the most obviously outrageous.
Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.
The great unknown is how many Tory wimps "cannot support this Deal - but then abstain. They will justify abstaining to themselves by saying it is sending a message - "get the backstop changed, Theresa, and you will have my undying support...."
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
If the vote were looking close, then maybe. But there's safety in numbers, so the cowards are more likely to vote no.
Who'd be a Tory whip this week?
Although, minimal sympathy. They should have had the fortitude to tell the PM her strategy was going to get crushed weeks ago. Epic fail on their part.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
But if he (and the EU) had negotiated some minor reforms we wouldn’t be in the situation. Part of the problem was what they agreed made some people even more willing to vote leave as they decided that the situation is unreformable.
The problem is remain is not remain with the status quo. It is remain on the train to ever closer union. The EU are quite clear about that and only this weekend we had a big group of politicians and academics claiming actually the only way to make the europe work is much much bigger EU.
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
Physician heal thyself!
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31 M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17 FI - EPP / 17% / 13 Lega - NI / 6% / 5 NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
The full ECJ ruling was even more generous to the UK than the opinion.
Discuss,
The ruling was based on the principle of ever closer union. So it's a ruling that ennobles the union's founding principle, rather than empower the union's organs. If you catch my meaning.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
As I said, that would have taken more than the four years he had.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
But if he (and the EU) had negotiated some minor reforms we wouldn’t be in the situation. Part of the problem was what they agreed made some people even more willing to vote leave as they decided that the situation is unreformable.
The problem is remain is not remain with the status quo. It is remain on the train to ever closer union. The EU are quite clear about that and only this weekend we had a big group of politicians and academics claiming actually the only way to make the europe work is much much bigger EU.
I don't think those people were ever going to vote Remain. It was just convenient for them to hang their decision on an event (Dave's Deal). Either that or they fundamentally misunderstood the EU if they supposedly were open to being a member and yet changing its core principles.
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
Physician heal thyself!
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31 M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17 FI - EPP / 17% / 13 Lega - NI / 6% / 5 NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
+1
Given that Brexiters find it so difficult to agree even with each other, they'd either still be at it or whatever they produced would have been deciselvely rejected
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
No, it shows exactly why Cameron should have set up a commission, stuffed with Brexiteers of various shades, to establish a version of Brexit to be put to the referendum, and why Theresa May should have done the same before triggering Article 50.
That wouldn't have worked - they'd have put forward a vision of unicorns prancing around rainbows with the EU paying us for a trade deal.
The Tory brand may be irreversibly damaged already - but a new Christian Democrat type grouping might be very popular and a home for a lot of centrist MPs from all sides. It would have ditched the Tory nasty party baggage and offer a non libdem alternative to Corbyn who is well past his high water mark. It takes very rocky waters in the UK system to create a new party and that's what we have now. This could be what history spends the next 50 years thinking about rather than the brexit that wasn't.
What term should we use instead of the unusable (because of the exclusion of other deities and followers of them) 'Christian' in this instance? Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
The Centrist Mums and Dads?
Even a badly damaged Conservative party combined with others such as Labour, Lib Dems etc. would see it probably strangled at birth. Unless it was seen as the replacement for the Conservatives via mass defections it is tough to get off the ground.
Blair had some good 'uns like third way or progress if your after a centre market.
Many people I know are horrified by the prospect of Boris but in these polarised times he stands a good chance. His main issue will be getting to the final two, I think he'll be stopped (again).
Which in itself will provide reason to split the Tory party. Boris represents one of the major strands of opinion within the party membership, if not at Westminster.
I think many of the Stop Boris crowd will be surprised at how lonely they become though.
(And I think if we do end up having to eat something close to the shit-sandwich that May has negotiated, only Boris telling the membership "really, as much as I hate to say it, so much water has passed under the bridge, it's the best we can get from here" has much hope of keeping the Conservative Party together.)
Now people begin to realise why Dave couldn't have "made preparations" for a Leave vote. Just to game the various scenarios of leave would have taken more than the four years of his remaining government's term.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
getting cameroons to accept Dave fked up is even harder than getting Labourites to accept they screwed the economy.
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
Physician heal thyself!
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31 M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17 FI - EPP / 17% / 13 Lega - NI / 6% / 5 NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
Also reports are that the Yellow Vests are going to from a party to stand in the EU elections. It will be eurosceptic.
The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division. Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
No they don't, which is why Grieve and Bercow are two of the most powerful people in what lies ahead.
Comments
The prosecution rests.
It's that George, right?
Trouble is, nobody will trust them once May has been jettisoned.
There will be other wimps who have said nothing so far but who will abstain.
Still, no loss if it doesn't, so that's nice.
Surprised the Ladbrokes second referendum odds didn't change after the ECJ ruling, though.
The PM cannot hear the Cabinet;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
Crash-out Brexit is loosed, and everywhere
The supply-chains of innocence are drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Referendum is at hand.
The Second Referendum! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of the Guardian
Troubles my sight: somewhere in bubble of London
A shape with Farage body and the head of a Mogg,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant activists.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough Boris, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Westminster to be born?
What a shitshow.
We cannot, CANNOT go on like this.
Who realises that 'the deal' is the end of the beginning and is followed by years of trade talks with the Irish, the French, the Danes, the Dutch, the Belgians, the Spaniards about whatever is dear to them? There are 27 member states to deal with, not just Mr Michel Barnier.
So said an hour programme on BBC World Service I heard when I was suffering from insomnia. By the end of it I was ready to go back to sleep ... but if anyone has any different facts on the trade talks other than the BBC's do let us know.
May a Pheonix rise from the ashes.
Peoples Democratic Party is just about ridiculous enough for modern times.
His failing? He genuinely didn't expect that there were enough idiots in the country to vote Leave or that they would then be lead by morons in their cabinet in their attempt to do so.
I am on him at 140.
Events moving fast.
*And wallet-pleasing.
I'm going out on a limb to say I'd want slightly better than evens to back the double!
Vote Bright! for a better future!
(You read it here first).
https://twitter.com/thecommongreen/status/1072096238663806976
And remember Lidington is only a play in the next PM market - he's the answer to TMay walking out of No10 today / tomorrow leaving this to someone else to deal with...
You can have 6/4. ;-)
Although, minimal sympathy. They should have had the fortitude to tell the PM her strategy was going to get crushed weeks ago. Epic fail on their part.
The problem is remain is not remain with the status quo. It is remain on the train to ever closer union. The EU are quite clear about that and only this weekend we had a big group of politicians and academics claiming actually the only way to make the europe work is much much bigger EU.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
FI - EPP / 17% / 13
Lega - NI / 6% / 5
NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.
Actually would hitting 47/48 actually give a 'cover' of sorts for delaying the Brexit vote?
Given that Brexiters find it so difficult to agree even with each other, they'd either still be at it or whatever they produced would have been deciselvely rejected
Blair had some good 'uns like third way or progress if your after a centre market.
I think many of the Stop Boris crowd will be surprised at how lonely they become though.
(And I think if we do end up having to eat something close to the shit-sandwich that May has negotiated, only Boris telling the membership "really, as much as I hate to say it, so much water has passed under the bridge, it's the best we can get from here" has much hope of keeping the Conservative Party together.)
Frankly, I'm not sure the Govt win that vote...
We should pay MPs more to get a better quality