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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    tlg86 said:

    Totally off topic, but this statistic caught my eye:

    https://tinyurl.com/ydgpo9hj

    More than half of motorists screened during a summer crackdown on drug-driving failed roadside tests, figures have shown.

    An average of 37 drivers a day were caught driving under the influence of banned substances, or 57% of the 1,962 motorists tested.


    I knew drug driving was a big issue, I just didn't realise how big.

    That is rather shocking at first glance.

    On further reflection, I presume the testing must have been heavily targeted at drivers the police suspected were under the influence of drugs, so I am not sure whether it tells us more about the extent of drug driving or the police's ability to spot drug-drivers from their driving?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,724
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    I don't think Richard has ever called for there to be violence instead he has merely stated his believe that there would be violence....
    Casuistry.

    Just like Enoch Powell.
    n.b. John McDonnell and lynching.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    I thought it couldn’t be pulled without a vote?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.

    Bollocks, just look at the Remainer response to the judgement today.

    If anything I'd expect Remain to double down on the abuse, trying to turn the referendum into a vote about morality, not politics or economics.

    This country is more divided than it has been in decades, and neither leave or remain will fix that. I personally expect things to go from bad to worse.
    I'm a Remainer. Look at my response today.
    We also have TSE's ' leavers really are cunts'. line. I think his view will predominate. I've had Remainers calling me a racist cunt for the last two years. I doubt that will change, despite your voice of reason.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    philiph said:

    Polruan said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I back May’s deal, but if it looks we’ll strongly Remain I’d be tempted to switch to help put the issue to bed.

    LOL

    If we leave, every problem for the next decade is going to be blamed on leaving.

    Brexit will haunt all of us to our graves
    Next decade? next half century more likely....
    Well Labour still blame Thatcher for most of the countries woes and the Tories will continue to blame Labour for "there's no money left" for the foreseeable future.
    Ahem and the winter of discontent - when't the half century anniversary of that? Not far off.
    Think the half century of that will be 2028/9. Are you trying to make me feel old(er)?
    Ah sorry yes when I added it up we are still a little way off. When was the three day week? '73?
    About then. I remember coming home from school to a delicious salad that my mum had prepared because of the power cuts. Then my brother pointed out we had a gas cooker. Happy days.
    Wouldn't work these days unfortunately. Our gas cooker was a lifesaver during the power cuts in the 70s but today they are all fitted with electronic switches to turn off the gas if there is no power. Basically no electricity no gas.
    Is that a recent change? I’ve got a Smeg range cooker (gas hob) which I guess is 10 years old and that works fine even when unplugged. The oven’s electric so that slightly less so.
    These days there is always the BBQ for an emergency.
    As a 13 year old in 1973 the sudden lack of television during the power cuts came as a massive culture shock. Still, on the plus side I learnt how to spell via candlelit games of scrabble!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    I thought it couldn’t be pulled without a vote?
    This was my thinking. I might be wrong !
  • matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    @TOPPING and @Benpointer - yes, frustrating that it doesn't say whether it was a random test or something else. I suspect it might have been on the basis that testing for drugs, as I understand it, is a lot harder than testing for alcohol.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I thought it couldn’t be pulled without a vote?
    It can't. It's on the order paper having been scheduled by a programme motion. It will require another programme motion to remove.

    Now, programme motions are not typically voted on, but I think if Mrs Leadsom were to move a PM to delay the vote, she will be pressed to a division and she will lose.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    I don't think Richard has ever called for there to be violence instead he has merely stated his believe that there would be violence....
    Casuistry.

    Just like Enoch Powell.
    I think platform is important here, a 'prediction' of violence on PB.com I'd read simply as a prediction. The same 'prediction' on twitter, particularly if the person has a large number of followers is somewhat different.
  • Also, worth thanking Nicola Sturgeon's tireless efforts on this front. She's done a great service for the integrity of the Union.
    Unlike every other lying, equivocating, reverse ferreting pol (Hi Ruth!), she actually meant it when she said Brexit was a disaster for the whole of the UK.
  • John_M said:

    Barnesian said:

    glw said:

    Barnesian said:

    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.

    Bollocks, just look at the Remainer response to the judgement today.

    If anything I'd expect Remain to double down on the abuse, trying to turn the referendum into a vote about morality, not politics or economics.

    This country is more divided than it has been in decades, and neither leave or remain will fix that. I personally expect things to go from bad to worse.
    I'm a Remainer. Look at my response today.
    We also have TSE's ' leavers really are cunts'. line. I think his view will predominate. I've had Remainers calling me a racist cunt for the last two years. I doubt that will change, despite your voice of reason.
    Errr I didn’t call them that, I called them cocks, particularly the ones with the gallows.

    The big naughty c word I only use in relation to Mark Reckless, which everyone agrees is appropriate if massively understating it.
  • Polruan said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I back May’s deal, but if it looks we’ll strongly Remain I’d be tempted to switch to help put the issue to bed.

    LOL

    If we leave, every problem for the next decade is going to be blamed on leaving.

    Brexit will haunt all of us to our graves
    Next decade? next half century more likely....
    Well Labour still blame Thatcher for most of the countries woes and the Tories will continue to blame Labour for "there's no money left" for the foreseeable future.
    Ahem and the winter of discontent - when't the half century anniversary of that? Not far off.
    Think the half century of that will be 2028/9. Are you trying to make me feel old(er)?
    Ah sorry yes when I added it up we are still a little way off. When was the three day week? '73?
    About then. I remember coming home from school to a delicious salad that my mum had prepared because of the power cuts. Then my brother pointed out we had a gas cooker. Happy days.
    Wouldn't work these days unfortunately. Our gas cooker was a lifesaver during the power cuts in the 70s but today they are all fitted with electronic switches to turn off the gas if there is no power. Basically no electricity no gas.
    Is that a recent change? I’ve got a Smeg range cooker (gas hob) which I guess is 10 years old and that works fine even when unplugged. The oven’s electric so that slightly less so.
    Not sure how long ago it was introduced but I thought it was more than 10 years ago. By law all cookers must have an inbuilt flame failure device. The flame failure device is part of the gas burner system. The device cuts off the gas supply if the cooker flame extinguishes for any reason. It is usually an electronic device these days and I thought that was the legal requirement but might be wrong.

    I only know this because the bloody thing failed on one of our gas cookers a few years ago and it was a bitch to sort out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited December 2018

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:



    If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.

    I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.
    The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    To all those leavers threatening us with vague but ominous warnings of a gammon uprising:

    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
  • Foxy said:

    eek said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    I don't think Richard has ever called for there to be violence instead he has merely stated his believe that there would be violence....
    Casuistry.

    Just like Enoch Powell.
    Ah, so we are fine considering you a fellow traveller with the IRA then. Good to know.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2018

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    Richard I appreciate you are uneasy on this topic and hence don't usually engage but I am happy to explain to you again (at the risk of boring senseless other PB-ers) why the reinstitution of a hard border in Northern Ireland would be deeply unwise.

    That is a world away from you invoking, as @Foxy has noted, Enoch Powell in your predictions about possible violence especially as you have told us your footwear is suitable for engaging in it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    I don't think Richard has ever called for there to be violence instead he has merely stated his believe that there would be violence....
    Casuistry.

    Just like Enoch Powell.
    I think platform is important here, a 'prediction' of violence on PB.com I'd read simply as a prediction. The same 'prediction' on twitter, particularly if the person has a large number of followers is somewhat different.
    Nevertheless he has been banging on about it with apparent eager anticipation for a while now.

    Far right politics and protest are on the rise across the developed West, and the question is why the UK should be immune. I don't see anything in pressing ahead with Brexit, particularly given the likelihood of some damage and disruption after the chaos of the last two years, that might offer us a free pass back to stable consensual centerism.
  • There’s going to be violence in the event of no deal that leads to a shortage of meds and foods.

    Those gallows Leavers are happy to condone might be used on Leavers.

    Everything looks messy from now on.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:



    If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.

    I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.
    The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.
    That's not clear actually. The ECJ ruling says "in accordance with our constutional procedures" which means that all May has to do is notify the Council of our decision to revoke Article 50, and BOOM, it's done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:



    If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.

    I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.
    The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.
    ...yes. And inadvertently Rees Moggs has given remainers that chance.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.

    All those in favour say aye.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,724

    philiph said:

    Polruan said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    I back May’s deal, but if it looks we’ll strongly Remain I’d be tempted to switch to help put the issue to bed.

    LOL

    If we leave, every problem for the next decade is going to be blamed on leaving.

    Brexit will haunt all of us to our graves
    Next decade? next half century more likely....
    Well Labour still blame Thatcher for most of the countries woes and the Tories will continue to blame Labour for "there's no money left" for the foreseeable future.
    Ahem and the winter of discontent - when't the half century anniversary of that? Not far off.
    Think the half century of that will be 2028/9. Are you trying to make me feel old(er)?
    Ah sorry yes when I added it up we are still a little way off. When was the three day week? '73?
    About then. I remember coming home from school to a delicious salad that my mum had prepared because of the power cuts. Then my brother pointed out we had a gas cooker. Happy days.
    Wouldn't work these days unfortunately. Our gas cooker was a lifesaver during the power cuts in the 70s but today they are all fitted with electronic switches to turn off the gas if there is no power. Basically no electricity no gas.
    Is that a recent change? I’ve got a Smeg range cooker (gas hob) which I guess is 10 years old and that works fine even when unplugged. The oven’s electric so that slightly less so.
    These days there is always the BBQ for an emergency.
    As a 13 year old in 1973 the sudden lack of television during the power cuts came as a massive culture shock. Still, on the plus side I learnt how to spell via candlelit games of scrabble!
    During the three day week one of my colleagues reported that several of her mature trees were felled for firewood without permission by a group of do-gooders led by the minister of the local church!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited December 2018
    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.

    Of course, we would still need an Article 50 extension, but that can be obtained in advance.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

    A shellacking for the tories for starters
  • Talking about Enoch Powell when I am going to have the whip hand on you lot?

    I’m waiting and it is the only reason I haven’t emigrated yet.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Floater said:


    A shellacking for the tories for starters

    Where's the downside?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Talking about Enoch Powell when I am going to have the whip hand on you lot?

    I’m waiting and it is the only reason I haven’t emigrated yet.

    I think you need to ask permission of the Jews who are running the show atm.
  • I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:



    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

    Not just the public - I'd imagine many political party activists would shrug and play more golf.

    e.g.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/tory-activists-flatly-refuse-to-deliver-leaflets-backing-mays-eu-deal.html

    "plenty of Conservative association officers are not even bothering to collect the proffered supply from their regional and area distribution points. A sizeable majority of associations I have spoken to have avoided, in one way or another, taking receipt of the leaflets, either out of outright opposition, or due to the knowledge their activists wouldn’t deliver them, or in the belief that delivering them will not have a positive effect on voters (or all of the above).

    Meanwhile, members who dislike the deal are left wondering if they should donate to the Party in future, if their money is going to be used for campaigns which they strongly disagree with."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    If May pulls the vote I think she's gonna get VONCed.

    This will be one humiliation too far for her party.
  • I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
  • TOPPING said:


    Richard I appreciate you are uneasy on this topic and hence don't usually engage but I am happy to explain to you again (at the risk of boring senseless other PB-ers) why the reinstitution of a hard border in Northern Ireland would be deeply unwise.

    That is a world away from you invoking, as @Foxy has noted, Enoch Powell in your predictions about possible violence especially as you have told us your footwear is suitable for engaging in it.

    No difference Topping. You are happy to raise the spectre of a return to the Troubles as a means to persuade people to support your position. I have never once accused you of actually wishing that state of affairs. I mention that my experience is that there will be violence if Leave is reversed. It is the same.

    My boots you mention were indeed used for giving a good kicking in the past. But that was kicking real fascists from the NF/BNP in London in the early 80s. Unfortunately I wasn't very good at it, hence both hospital and police cell visits.

    I really would rather we didn't see a return to those days but I say again that is what you are risking.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Can you point to one post where he has called for violence?

    If you can't I am sure your apology will be fulsome.

  • If May pulls the vote I think she's gonna get VONCed.

    This will be one humiliation too far for her party.

    We need to be clear a Tory Party VONC or a Parliamentary VONC?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    If May pulls the vote I think she's gonna get VONCed.

    This will be one humiliation too far for her party.

    We need to be clear a Tory Party VONC or a Parliamentary VONC?
    Party. Parliament will need to wait and see what the DUP will do.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    If May pulls the vote I think she's gonna get VONCed.

    This will be one humiliation too far for her party.

    We need to be clear a Tory Party VONC or a Parliamentary VONC?
    Party. Parliament will need to wait and see what the DUP will do.
    Dumping May gives the best chance of getting the DUP back onside.

    Unless Rudd becomes PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    If May pulls the vote I think she's gonna get VONCed.

    This will be one humiliation too far for her party.

    We need to be clear a Tory Party VONC or a Parliamentary VONC?
    Party. Parliament will need to wait and see what the DUP will do.
    The DUP will keep the Gov'ts hands glued to the wheel so long as they're hurtling toward the March 29th cliff edge I think.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Floater said:


    A shellacking for the tories for starters

    Where's the downside?
    Labour in power obviously
  • Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.

    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

    A shellacking for the tories for starters
    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.
  • I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

    A shellacking for the tories for starters
    Not necessarily. The Tories might be forced out of office, and A50 revoked by a Labour-led government.
  • Sean_F said:

    Floater said:

    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    The Remain campaign in the upcoming referendum on Mrs May's Deal versus Remain will not be the same as last time. It will differ in these respects:

    1. It will be effectively and coherently led, but not publicly by a "big name". It will be a bottom up, social media, "people's campaign".
    2. It will be positive. It will not knock the Leavers as old, stupid or racist. Rather it will acknowledge their concerns and attempt to address them.
    3. It will not argue for the status quo in Europe but for a positive change for Britain, based on a stronger economy, addressing the problems of the poorer regions and the "left-behinds". Many who voted Leave last time want change. The Remain campaign will offer them that.

    If will feel very different from the previous Remain campaign.

    It won't heal the divisions. There will still be a smallish embittered group of eurosceptics as there have been for the last 40 years. But if Mrs May's Deal Campaign is also equally respectful of Remainers' concerns and ambitions, then I think it could be the start of a healing process, no matter which side wins.

    As I have said often on here before, if you think there will be any peace at all after a reversal of the Leave vote then you really are deluded. At the very least you will see a massive increase in support for extremist groups and a collapse in faith in the basic democratic process. You will not at all like the country you will have helped to create.
    That country has been wholly created by nihilists like you. And like all good leavers you call on violence and blame somebody else.
    Ah more Remaniac lies. I have at no point called for violence. I have simply said I expect it to follow if the Leave vote is overturned. As I said to some Remainer loon last week using a similar line, given they are claiming the backstop is necessary to maintain peace in NI, are they to be accused of promoting violence in pursuit of their cause?

    If you have nothing actually intelligent to say perhaps you should just keep quiet and save us all a lot of wasted time trying to explain things to you.
    If Brexit is cancelled, I'd expect the public to be further alienated from the political class. It's anyone's guess where that leads to.

    It took a while for the impact of the general slowdown in growth after 2000 (and subsequent GFC) to feed through into Western politics, but the impact is clear.

    A shellacking for the tories for starters
    Not necessarily. The Tories might be forced out of office, and A50 revoked by a Labour-led government.
    Not whilst Corbyn is leader.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    People like an underdog. But people don't want to vote for an underdog. May's only strength is that she's not Jeremy Corbyn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
    The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:


    A shellacking for the tories for starters

    Where's the downside?
    They might see a downside

    Plus for all the doom stories about Brexit just wait for impact of a Jezbollah government.
  • That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
    The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
    For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    There’s going to be violence in the event of no deal that leads to a shortage of meds and foods.

    Those gallows Leavers are happy to condone might be used on Leavers.

    Everything looks messy from now on.

    Seconded. I don't know how messy, but it could be very nasty in some places.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    All roads lead to being marmalised one way or another. May's deal just kicks the marmalisation down the road a bit, at least until the DUP VONC her.
  • That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    There's been a high structural fault in the Tories (and labour) for a long time. If FPTP is reformed then I'm sure both parties would split. That might be very healthy for the country right now.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Floater said:

    Floater said:


    A shellacking for the tories for starters

    Where's the downside?
    They might see a downside

    Plus for all the doom stories about Brexit just wait for impact of a Jezbollah government.
    Alternatively Jezza's govt may spend the whole time purging their ranks of unbelievers rather than on governing and the country will just get on with things - quite nicely as is happening now.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
    The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
    For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect.
    Expect big wins for Labour then.

    (DYSWIDT?)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    Comparable to the crash after the Corn Laws debacle?
  • Take it or leave it, it would appear.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1072089128421023744
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.

    Of course, we would still need an Article 50 extension, but that can be obtained in advance.
    And it kills all the nonsense from leavers about how we would have to join the Euro and lose all our opt-outs.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    It was never a serious prospect I think. ConHome speculating it was little more than an attempt to delay any payroll resignations over the weekend. No point resigning to vote against, if there's not gonna be a vote.

    I could, however, see May belatedly deciding to make it a free vote. If she doesn't, we're on high alert resignation watch.

    All eyes on McVey and Mordaunt?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:


    Richard I appreciate you are uneasy on this topic and hence don't usually engage but I am happy to explain to you again (at the risk of boring senseless other PB-ers) why the reinstitution of a hard border in Northern Ireland would be deeply unwise.

    That is a world away from you invoking, as @Foxy has noted, Enoch Powell in your predictions about possible violence especially as you have told us your footwear is suitable for engaging in it.

    No difference Topping. You are happy to raise the spectre of a return to the Troubles as a means to persuade people to support your position. I have never once accused you of actually wishing that state of affairs. I mention that my experience is that there will be violence if Leave is reversed. It is the same.

    My boots you mention were indeed used for giving a good kicking in the past. But that was kicking real fascists from the NF/BNP in London in the early 80s. Unfortunately I wasn't very good at it, hence both hospital and police cell visits.

    I really would rather we didn't see a return to those days but I say again that is what you are risking.
    Fair enough the new, peace-loving, polite Richard (not too polite, I hope).

    And wrt NI you misunderstand my point and tone. I am not trying to persuade anyone to support "my" position. I don't really have a position apart from observing that The Deal solves the NI problem and the recurrence of The Troubles is unconscionable and certainly something that no Prime Minister of the UK could preside over.

    I am looking at the situation from a socio-political context and identifying a particular state of affairs, with the analysis drawing on precedent and the historical reality of The Troubles. A view which finds sympathy as evidenced by many articles written locally in Northern Ireland and the Republic by all "sides".

    That is a world away from saying if a certain political outcome you desire is "betrayed" then violence will follow, with no precedent or real grounds for saying so other than gut feel and a touch of invocation.
  • Not only that, but what on earth would be gained by delaying? It's not shortage of time for the debate that is the issue! We need to get this vote out of the way so that, given that the deal is not going to be approved, attention can turn to what is going to be approved instead. It's not as though we have the luxury of plenty of time.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,724
    Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/
  • IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.

    Of course, we would still need an Article 50 extension, but that can be obtained in advance.
    And it kills all the nonsense from leavers about how we would have to join the Euro and lose all our opt-outs.
    True.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Not only that, but what on earth would be gained by delaying? It's not shortage of time for the debate that is the issue! We need to get this vote out of the way so that, given that the deal is not going to be approved, attention can turn to what is going to be approved instead. It's not as though we have the luxury of plenty of time.
    I think it's fear of the Grieve amendment. The Grieve amendment only comes into play once the MV falls. No MV, no Grieve.
  • That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    Comparable to the crash after the Corn Laws debacle?
    Quite possibly, but who knows?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    Comparable to the crash after the Corn Laws debacle?
    Oddly enough, the Conservatives won the elections of both 1847 and 1852, but were too divided among themselves to form a government.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2018

    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.
    Agree - it's hugely significant (and surprising, as the court more often than not rules in favour of the EU and not the nation state) - and made Mrs May's job even more difficult. Looks like the ERG are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Serves the b#ggers right.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    geoffw said:

    Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/

    Ha, if we tried it again, the UK would find itself negotiating in an empty room.
  • Donny43 said:

    kle4 said:

    Donny43 said:



    If parliament votes to overturn the referendum result, JRM will vote against.

    I didn't mean he wants us to remain. I know he doesn't and will fight it. But he and his are preventing us from leaving working hand in hand with remainers. He hopes and assumes we leave in a different way instead but unintended consequences are still consequences. He has been one of the biggest helpers to the remain cause.
    The only thing that can stop us leaving is parliament voting to overturn the referendum result.
    That's not clear actually. The ECJ ruling says "in accordance with our constutional procedures" which means that all May has to do is notify the Council of our decision to revoke Article 50, and BOOM, it's done.
    But she would presumably break UK law in the process (as the Act passed at the start enshrined March 29th as the leaving date). So (a) it probably does need parliamentary approval and (b) a withdrawal without it might arguably not have followed our constitutional procedures, given that the law was passed? (IANAL etc)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    geoffw said:

    Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/

    I suspect this is one movie for which there won't be much demand for a sequel
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1072086273274331136

    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.
    Agree - it's hugely significant (and surprising, as the court more often than not rules in favour of the EU and not the nation state) - and made Mrs May's job even more difficult. Looks like the ERG are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Serves the b#ggers right.
    They did rule in favour of the EU. The clincher for the court was that forcing out the UK against its will would violate the principle of ever closer union.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Nothing matters more to me (not even Brexit) than seeing the back of Trump. He is pure poison. Behind bars would be optimal and deserved but I can't see it somehow. I am however becoming more confident that if the ghastly creature survives and stands again he will lose in 2020. It needs to be a crushing defeat, though, if America is to regain its place in my affections (which I would have thought is paramount to the people there) and the biggest single development that will ensure this is not some eye-popping Mueller revelation but a well-timed and preferably quite severe economic downturn in the US. I wrote my list for Santa first thing this morning and that is right at the top.
  • Not only that, but what on earth would be gained by delaying? It's not shortage of time for the debate that is the issue! We need to get this vote out of the way so that, given that the deal is not going to be approved, attention can turn to what is going to be approved instead. It's not as though we have the luxury of plenty of time.
    I think it's fear of the Grieve amendment. The Grieve amendment only comes into play once the MV falls. No MV, no Grieve.
    Theresa May should embrace Grieve (metaphorically, you understand). His amendment provides a glimmer of an escape hatch, making it possible to force MPs to decide what they are for, rather than what they are against.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    As to the A50 matter, so what? If we had or might ever want to rescind that judgement would have IMO been forthcoming anyway. The judgement is irrelevant to the ongoing political debate in the UK.

    I disagree. What the ruling gives is 100% certainty that any decision to revoke Article 50 is entirely in our power and there is no need to worry about whether we might get held to ransom or stopped by some minor player in EU27. That's very important, because it makes it possible to put Revoke to a referendum with certainty that it can be delivered - think how chaotic it would be if we held a referendum, the result was Revoke, and then we found we couldn't do it.

    Of course, we would still need an Article 50 extension, but that can be obtained in advance.
    And it kills all the nonsense from leavers about how we would have to join the Euro and lose all our opt-outs.
    But that is a better membership than our part in part out second rate deal that ensures years more fractious membership.

    Get in properly or get out. A halfway house is the crapiest position of all.
  • It was never a serious prospect I think. ConHome speculating it was little more than an attempt to delay any payroll resignations over the weekend. No point resigning to vote against, if there's not gonna be a vote.

    I could, however, see May belatedly deciding to make it a free vote. If she doesn't, we're on high alert resignation watch.

    All eyes on McVey and Mordaunt?
    McVey already gone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627

    To all those leavers threatening us with vague but ominous warnings of a gammon uprising:

    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Flowers - or donations?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    geoffw said:

    Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/

    A good idea. We stay. And when the Brexiteers can actually make a proposal that makes any sense we can vote for it. Or not. In other words do what should have been done the first time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.


    COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.

    Physician heal thyself!
    YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?
    This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.
    It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.
    Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.
    The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.
    For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.
    The same as last time, then.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    It was never a serious prospect I think. ConHome speculating it was little more than an attempt to delay any payroll resignations over the weekend. No point resigning to vote against, if there's not gonna be a vote.

    I could, however, see May belatedly deciding to make it a free vote. If she doesn't, we're on high alert resignation watch.

    All eyes on McVey and Mordaunt?
    A free vote! On the government's flagship policy?

    If May is reduced to that she might as well go now, her authority will be reduced below that of the Downing Street cat.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    112

    George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464

    Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    kinabalu said:

    Nothing matters more to me (not even Brexit) than seeing the back of Trump. He is pure poison. Behind bars would be optimal and deserved but I can't see it somehow. I am however becoming more confident that if the ghastly creature survives and stands again he will lose in 2020. It needs to be a crushing defeat, though, if America is to regain its place in my affections (which I would have thought is paramount to the people there) and the biggest single development that will ensure this is not some eye-popping Mueller revelation but a well-timed and preferably quite severe economic downturn in the US. I wrote my list for Santa first thing this morning and that is right at the top.

    Dem house lead now at 9,735,932. And yes they are still counting in California.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    IanB2 said:

    geoffw said:

    Interesting contrarian view of the ECJ ruling; it allows us to see this first attempt as a dry run for a more properly prepared second go.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-ecj-brexit-ruling-hands-power-back-to-britain/

    I suspect this is one movie for which there won't be much demand for a sequel
    Oh, I don't now.

    Brexit With a Vengeance.......
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    It was never a serious prospect I think. ConHome speculating it was little more than an attempt to delay any payroll resignations over the weekend. No point resigning to vote against, if there's not gonna be a vote.

    I could, however, see May belatedly deciding to make it a free vote. If she doesn't, we're on high alert resignation watch.

    All eyes on McVey and Mordaunt?
    A free vote! On the government's flagship policy?

    If May is reduced to that she might as well go now, her authority will be reduced below that of the Downing Street cat.
    I mean, her authority is already swiss cheese. A free vote might at least stop a cabinet resignation or two.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Sean_F said:

    That doesn't necessarily follow, though it could well. The public seem to be giving May personally the benefit of the doubt for trying her best to complete a Sisyphean task. Whether they're right to do so is another matter. Certainly her task to get anything acceptable (in either sense) is not helped by the divisions in her own party and those divisions may well lead to a shellacking.

    On the other hand, if Brexit is cancelled despite the PM's best efforts and despite various shades of Leave being demonstrated (if not effectively applied) on the Tory benches, while it's Labour, the LDs, SNP, Plaid and Greens (plus probably a small number of Tories) who have combined to frustrate Brexit then it will not only be the Conservatives feeling the backlash.

    I'm pretty sure there will be a shellacking for the Tories if Brexit doesn't go ahead (although it's rather ironic, given that the reason for it not going ahead will be the unholy alliance between the Brexiteers and the opposition).

    However, that ain't nothing compared with the shellacking the party will get if we crash out in chaos - it could take a generation to recover.
    Comparable to the crash after the Corn Laws debacle?
    Oddly enough, the Conservatives won the elections of both 1847 and 1852, but were too divided among themselves to form a government.
    Quite probably comparable then! We've had the first......
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    'A Cabinet source reacts: "Well... fuck... Maybe she wants a no confidence vote so she can be booted out and have a quiet Christmas.'
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    The cabinet source must be thick - the vote going ahead isn't a reason to change mind on anything, the program can't be changed by the Gov't without a division.
    Does anyone in parliament (Except Grieve and Bercow) understand the procedures ?
  • 112

    George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464

    Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?

    Several bookies have vote band markets on the number of Ayes. The number still seems to be dropping rather than rising, so far as I can see.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    That would be my reaction, in her shoes.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    This is textbook May. Call an emergency all hands conference call, put the lobby on high alert, march everyone to the top of the hill and then...

    "Nothing has changed."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627

    112

    George Freeman: "I’ve concluded & told my Whip that I can’t vote for this deal"

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072091296716734464

    Could we see May lose by 200+? 250+?

    North of 200. No reason for any Labour MPs to vote for it. At best, maybe a couple will abstain, but even that will risk censure from their local party.

    And there will be a bunch more payroll resignations ahead of the vote. This regime is in its dying days. Why piss off the new PM - and end your career?
This discussion has been closed.