politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn and TMay are scrapping over whether the BBC or ITV
Comments
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As we discussed in the last thread, top politicians nowadays live in a cocoon of security very different from their predecessors a few decades ago. When I first became involved in the Labour Party in the 1970s only the PM, Foreign, Home and NI secretaries had bodyguards, Downing Street was a public road and anyone could walk in to the Central Lobby at Westminster, there were no security checks at all. And this was at the height of the IRA bombing campaign. CAmpaign meetings were usually open to anyone and heckling was commonplace and expected.Yorkcity said:
Give over , a current PM for all sorts of reasons , namely security, never gets the chance to hear genuine unrestricted views from members of the public.MikeSmithson said:
I'd guess that Corbyn and TMay have about as much contact with ordinary members of the public as each other.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your prejeudice is obvious. She was out with the public on ITV Wales last week and she got a good reception and support from just ordinary voters - so much so I was surprisedold_labour said:
She "meets" the people in controlled environments like factories where nobody is going to risk being sacked. Typical that she wants to hobnob with the elite than answer the questions of ordinary people. She is frit!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. She has been meeting the public almost daily, appearing on the media, in parliament and more to follow.old_labour said:
She is scared to meet the people!Big_G_NorthWales said:Just arrived in to hear Sky reporting TM and the BBC have agreed the debate with an independent panel cross examining the leaders and for them to say Corbyn is concened he doesn't know the detail and wants it on ITV
That is labour's policy right there.
Maybe your bias showing
Corbyn will hear more riding his bike from home.
Part of the alienation that people feel from modern politics is caused by the heavy handed, almost paranoid, security that now surrounds our leaders. It gives the (probably correct) impression that they are scared of meeting ordinary voters.0 -
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
Indeed not. It could have come from the pen of Adolf himself!Stereotomy said:
The main insight is that May and her inner circle didn't understand how soundbites work.FrancisUrquhart said:
You realise in context it was about rich tax dodgers.Roger said:I never heard Mrs May say “But, if you believe you are a citizen of the world, you are a citizen of nowhere. You don't understand what citizenship means.”
It was just on radio. It's quite an insight and explains a lot.0 -
I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!0 -
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.0 -
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!0 -
RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?
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What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on there. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?0 -
My MP, a very humble backbencher, has just had to u turn on this. She'd refused to do any preannounced surgeries citing the Jo Cox case. Many MPs will ask you to make an appointment but still publicise that they'll be at X at Y time. I've never heard before of an obscure backbencher saying she can never on a point of principle advertise a surgery location in advance. Anyway after massive damaging criticism she's u turned and now posters advertising surgery locations you can drop into are appearing all over.anothernick said:
As we discussed in the last thread, top politicians nowadays live in a cocoon of security very different from their predecessors a few decades ago. When I first became involved in the Labour Party in the 1970s only the PM, Foreign, Home and NI secretaries had bodyguards, Downing Street was a public road and anyone could walk in to the Central Lobby at Westminster, there were no security checks at all. And this was at the height of the IRA bombing campaign. CAmpaign meetings were usually open to anyone and heckling was commonplace and expected.Yorkcity said:
Give over , a current PM for all sorts of reasons , namely security, never gets the chance to hear genuine unrestricted views from members of the public.MikeSmithson said:
I'd guess that Corbyn and TMay have about as much contact with ordinary members of the public as each other.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your prejeudice is obvious. She was out with the public on ITV Wales last week and she got a good reception and support from just ordinary voters - so much so I was surprisedold_labour said:
She "meets" the people in controlled environments like factories where nobody is going to risk being sacked. Typical that she wants to hobnob with the elite than answer the questions of ordinary people. She is frit!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious. She has been meeting the public almost daily, appearing on the media, in parliament and more to follow.old_labour said:
She is scared to meet the people!Big_G_NorthWales said:Just arrived in to hear Sky reporting TM and the BBC have agreed the debate with an independent panel cross examining the leaders and for them to say Corbyn is concened he doesn't know the detail and wants it on ITV
That is labour's policy right there.
Maybe your bias showing
Corbyn will hear more riding his bike from home.
Part of the alienation that people feel from modern politics is caused by the heavy handed, almost paranoid, security that now surrounds our leaders. It gives the (probably correct) impression that they are scared of meeting ordinary voters.0 -
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?0 -
If people stopped trying to exploit Brexit for political gain and focused on trying to get the best solution for the country we would be a lot better offMexicanpete said:
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?0 -
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
If suddenly Brexit was de-politicized, Mrs May would declare it was all a dreadful mistake and we are not leaving as the referendum was only advisory and if we leave under any circumstances we will all be worse off. She won't so it remains politicised.HYUFD said:
If people stopped trying to exploit Brexit for political gain and focused on trying to get the best solution for the country we would be a lot better offMexicanpete said:
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?
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Does she? The vote is the “meaningful vote” isn’t it? If she needed an additional bill why was there such a fuss made about the vote in the first place?Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.
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I don’t think I’ve ever seen an example of sanctions being applied in the run up to a crunch vote, for example. In fact, the coercion may be positive, such as china’s foreign investment in Africa, for example.alex. said:
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?0 -
That's very true and massively under analysed. A few of us raised it the other day and were told treaty making was a prerogative power 🤔 While technically true it misses your correct point.Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
Two cheeks of the same backside. Use of investment to buy votes can just as easily turn into (threats of) withdrawal of investment once you seek to break away. You were the one who chose to interpret economic influence to mean sanctions. Anyway the argument has probably run it’s course...RobD said:
I don’t think I’ve ever seen an example of sanctions being applied in the run up to a crunch vote, for example. In fact, the coercion may be positive, such as china’s foreign investment in Africa, for example.alex. said:
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?
0 -
Luckily we are a net contributor to the EU.alex. said:
Two cheeks of the same backside. Use of investment to buy votes can just as easily turn into (threats of) withdrawal of investment once you seek to break away.RobD said:
I don’t think I’ve ever seen an example of sanctions being applied in the run up to a crunch vote, for example. In fact, the coercion may be positive, such as china’s foreign investment in Africa, for example.alex. said:
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?0 -
It is the voters who voted for Brexit, May backed RemainMexicanpete said:
If suddenly Brexit was de-politicized, Mrs May would declare it was all a dreadful mistake and we are not leaving as the referendum was only advisory and if we leave under any circumstances we will all be worse off. She won't so it remains politicised.HYUFD said:
If people stopped trying to exploit Brexit for political gain and focused on trying to get the best solution for the country we would be a lot better offMexicanpete said:
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
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My apologies, I thought you were arguing against meRobD said:
Luckily we are a net contributor to the EU.alex. said:
Two cheeks of the same backside. Use of investment to buy votes can just as easily turn into (threats of) withdrawal of investment once you seek to break away.RobD said:
I don’t think I’ve ever seen an example of sanctions being applied in the run up to a crunch vote, for example. In fact, the coercion may be positive, such as china’s foreign investment in Africa, for example.alex. said:
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?
0 -
Maybe they won't when we get the people's vote.HYUFD said:
It is the voters who voted for Brexit, May backed RemainMexicanpete said:
If suddenly Brexit was de-politicized, Mrs May would declare it was all a dreadful mistake and we are not leaving as the referendum was only advisory and if we leave under any circumstances we will all be worse off. She won't so it remains politicised.HYUFD said:
If people stopped trying to exploit Brexit for political gain and focused on trying to get the best solution for the country we would be a lot better offMexicanpete said:
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
Adonis lost it a long time ago, he genuinely seems to believe anything he does not like is part of a grand leave conspiracy, even from institutions that get a lot of crap from leaver conspiracists.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Quite a big night for local by-elections. Con defences in Bromley and Welwyn, Lab defences in Oldham and Northampton, LD defences in Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire. and Stratford First defence in Warwickshire.0
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I don't think they will, I think remain would win, but I defy anyone to tell me that too many remain/second referendum are not being incredibly complacent, reliant on how of course this time voters would not be so thick. You see it all the time when people rely on arguments about brexit voters dying off etc etc, it's treated as an inevitability that remain will win, and that is lazy as all hell.Mexicanpete said:
Maybe they won't when we get the people's vote.HYUFD said:
It is the voters who voted for Brexit, May backed RemainMexicanpete said:
If suddenly Brexit was de-politicized, Mrs May would declare it was all a dreadful mistake and we are not leaving as the referendum was only advisory and if we leave under any circumstances we will all be worse off. She won't so it remains politicised.HYUFD said:
If people stopped trying to exploit Brexit for political gain and focused on trying to get the best solution for the country we would be a lot better offMexicanpete said:
Deam on! No deal Brexit is a blue Brexit. No ifs, no buts! The referendum was Cameron's brainchild, Johnson saw Leave as a pathway to No 10 and Mrs May ran her bad deal to the wire,HYUFD said:
Nope we can lay them at the door of Labour and the ERG who will either bring about No Deal and the worst recession since the 1930s or a BINO Brexit or Remain in EUref2 and a resurgent far right led by Tommy Robinson taking over where UKIP left off.stodge said:
Seriously?HYUFD said:
May just keeps pushing her Deal through until the country faces living off locusts and rats
Is all you now have ludicrous exaggerations based on Carney's Project Fear?
Many are now saying the claims for No Deal have been overbalown perhaps but the truth is the Government has negligently failed to do adequate contingency planning for a No Deal. IF there are any problems after 29/3/19 we can lay them directly at the Government's door who will have, through their own incompetence and ineptitude, put us all at unnecessary risk.
Talking about lack of preparation for No Deal is like saying you should have booked a hospital appointment before you cut your arm off0 -
The WA has legal implications that need to be voted through into U.K. law.alex. said:
Does she? The vote is the “meaningful vote” isn’t it? If she needed an additional bill why was there such a fuss made about the vote in the first place?Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
Do Stratford First write their manifesto in rhyming couplets?slade said:Quite a big night for local by-elections. Con defences in Bromley and Welwyn, Lab defences in Oldham and Northampton, LD defences in Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire. and Stratford First defence in Warwickshire.
0 -
That's interesting, and doesn't surprise me very much. During the EU referendum campaign, there was so much contradictory 'information' and passionate feelings flying around that I, for one, finally made up my mind going by gut instinct. And that doesn't tend to change.CarlottaVance said:
Good evening, everyone.0 -
In an interesting turn of events, it appears that Trump's Trade War with China has reduced US exports and increased its imports:alex. said:
Simple question - do you believe that the US (or China...) ever seek to use economic muscle to coerce other security members to vote their way?RobD said:
It’d be interesting to know what leverage you think they could apply. Suspending a hypothetical FTA, sanctions?alex. said:
Who knows? They can they do what they want. That’s the point. We are currently under no obligation to support a common EU position. And the EU has no leverage over us to co-erce us to do so. My contention is that they will have more leverage once we leave. You may disagree, so be it. I’ve just made the argument.RobD said:
What’s the EU going to do? Not trade with us if we don’t vote their way? The simple fact is the EU had two voices on their. Now it has one.alex. said:RobD said:
No doubt France will lose their seat to the EU. In any case, what does the UN have to do with trade?alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
Nothing directly. You don’t think that the big countries use economic influence/threats all the time to try to coerce the temporary Security Council members to fall into line?
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
Probably this just reflects Trump's consumer boom and the Chinese slowdown, but I did raise a wry smile. @RCS1000 would say it is all down to savings ratio.0 -
My local MP (given her views I refuse to call her mine) doesn't appear to hold surgeries. She replies to letters and emails, and, to be fair can be helpful, but there's no suggestion of surgeries on her contact page.YellowSubmarine said:
My MP, a very humble backbencher, has just had to u turn on this. She'd refused to do any preannounced surgeries citing the Jo Cox case. Many MPs will ask you to make an appointment but still publicise that they'll be at X at Y time. I've never heard before of an obscure backbencher saying she can never on a point of principle advertise a surgery location in advance. Anyway after massive damaging criticism she's u turned and now posters advertising surgery locations you can drop into are appearing all over.anothernick said:
As we discussed in the last thread, top politicians nowadays live in a cocoon of security very different from their predecessors a few decades ago. When I first became involved in the Labour Party in the 1970s only the PM, Foreign, Home and NI secretaries had bodyguards, Downing Street was a public road and anyone could walk in to the Central Lobby at Westminster, there were no security checks at all. And this was at the height of the IRA bombing campaign. CAmpaign meetings were usually open to anyone and heckling was commonplace and expected.Yorkcity said:
Corbyn will hear more riding his bike from home.MikeSmithson said:
I'd guess that Corbyn and TMay have about as much contact with ordinary members of the public as each other.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your prejeudice is obvious. She was out with the public on ITV Wales last week and she got a good reception and support from just ordinary voters - so much so I was surprisedold_labour said:
She "meets" the people in controlled environments like factories where nobody is going to risk being sacked. Typical that she wants to hobnob with the elite than answer the questions of ordinary people. She is frit!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe your bias showingold_labour said:
She is scared to meet the people!Big_G_NorthWales said:Just arrived in to hear Sky reporting TM and the BBC have agreed the debate with an independent panel cross examining the leaders and for them to say Corbyn is concened he doesn't know the detail and wants it on ITV
That is labour's policy right there.
Part of the alienation that people feel from modern politics is caused by the heavy handed, almost paranoid, security that now surrounds our leaders. It gives the (probably correct) impression that they are scared of meeting ordinary voters.0 -
Like May, he'd have got a deal (Probably an even softer Brexit) and been similiarly unable to sell it to the general public. The Labour backbenches wouldn't be as rebellious though and the Tory front bench would consider giving support.kle4 said:
Brown seemed ok. Goodness only knows how he'd have handled this situation though.SandyRentool said:
Remember all of the Tory posters here on PB who would rip the piss out of Gordon Brown, day in, day out?RochdalePioneers said:
This is so far outside of May's comfort zone that like Paul McCartney she may be dead and have been replaced by a lookalike. She doesn't do people, can't do normal, can't debate or build an argument. Yet despite the number of her MPs opposing it being in triple digits and increasing every day, she is "touring" hand picked locations, writing begging letters, handing out gongs and now has been persuaded to do the head to head debate she wussed out of in 2017.kle4 said:I think the idea that someone shouldn't try to convince the public because if(when) they fail it will be demeaning to be a little odd. She thinks, however incorrectly, that her deal is the best option, or at least the only sensible option. She should try to convince people of that. It's not like she will be PM for too much longer, what does she have to lose at least making the attempt. And it certainly doesn't demean the office to 'beg' it. Are PMs of coalitions demeaned because they have to try to persuade another party, are PMs of minority government's demeaned?
Not even trying to persuade people would be more demeaning, as bad as she is as it, as even as there are other things she could try, there are more important things than preserving the dignity of one's office.
And after all this? The deal gets destroyed in the Commons and she gets resigned. Prime Ministers should not beg. Should not plead. The proposal either has merit or it doesn't. And it doesn't. At which point its in everyone's interest - hers, the party, the country, and the history books to go. Not get caught up pleading for which broadcaster and which TV show to precede for her begging fest.
Would Thatcher have done this? Blair? Major FFS?
They must be wishing that the current PM was half as able as Gordon.
He'd have been able to give hundreds of tractor stats on the minutiae just like May
0 -
I linked to s13(1)(d) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act earlier. There are a veritable thicket of hurdles to be overcome, some of which, at least, also involve the Lords where the government is even shorter of a majority than it is in the Commons. It seems increasingly likely to me that remainers who were elected on respect the vote manifestos in 2017 are going to stop this.YellowSubmarine said:
That's very true and massively under analysed. A few of us raised it the other day and were told treaty making was a prerogative power 🤔 While technically true it misses your correct point.Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
That's a new meaning of the word "excellent" I've not encountered before. The first few books were decent enough: *On Basilisk Station* and *A Short Victorious War* were pretty tautly plotted, but after that Weber caught Successful Author Syndrome and stopped listening to his editors and produced doorstep after doorstep of infodumps. And don't get me started on those bloody treecats!Verulamius said:
Erewhon is also a star Republic in David Weber's excellent science fiction series about Honor Harrington.rcs1000 said:
Erehwon is also an incredibly expensive Los Angles "supermarket" for people who think Whole Foods is too downmarket.rottenborough said:I pass on without comment:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1068198921959325696
Erewhon was originally settled by a group of successful interstellar criminals. Initially, the planet and its enterprises were used as a front for organized crime. Its capital city is Maytag.
Still better than Meluch's "Merrimack" series though.0 -
There is no logical flow between all the options been thrown at those being polled. I think outside the JRM and Adonis of this world, most ordinary folk don't really know what they would prefer.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
If the House of Commons backs someone - anything - it will be a massive constitutional outrage to see the unelected Lords attempt to stymie both the referendum result and the Commons own verdict on it. Can't see that happening, it is the Commons where the battle has to happen.DavidL said:
I linked to s13(1)(d) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act earlier. There are a veritable thicket of hurdles to be overcome, some of which, at least, also involve the Lords where the government is even shorter of a majority than it is in the Commons. It seems increasingly likely to me that remainers who were elected on respect the vote manifestos in 2017 are going to stop this.YellowSubmarine said:
That's very true and massively under analysed. A few of us raised it the other day and were told treaty making was a prerogative power 🤔 While technically true it misses your correct point.Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
No-one thinks it a sure thing, but it is the best chance and perhaps the only chance.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
It surprises me a lot. john Curtice was on the 5 pm news and he said the latest polling was pointing very strongly towards Remain depending of course on the precise wording of the question.AnneJGP said:
That's interesting, and doesn't surprise me very much. During the EU referendum campaign, there was so much contradictory 'information' and passionate feelings flying around that I, for one, finally made up my mind going by gut instinct. And that doesn't tend to change.CarlottaVance said:
Good evening, everyone.0 -
Err no.alex. said:I see there was some discussion of the United Nations earlier. It is a little made argument, but it seems to me that Brexit actually potentially undermines our position on the Security Council. Because (if you assume we actually act as an independent voice on the Council) what Brexit does is make us far more vulnerable to economic blackmail, in a way which isn’t possible to do whilst we are members of the EU. Because in the EU anybody seeking to target the U.K. by denying them trading opportunities is effectively forced by default to target the whole of the EU.
Once we leave the EU this is no longer the case. And in fact we will be far more vulnerable to being co-erred to support the common EU position. So Brexit is actually a big boost to the EU for asserting influence at the UN!
The UNSC is about security, not economics and through the decades we have very frequently agreed with America and not France. That's not going to change, in fact if anything potentially as we drift apart away from the EU that's going to increase.
What it will do is increase the pressure on France to one day relinquish their seat to the EU. There was very little pressure for the UK and France to do so as it made little sense to relinquish two seats to become one, but for one seat to switch has happened before (eg China).0 -
Early days but maybe TM determination to brexit is cutting through even though this deal is notRoger said:
It surprises me a lot. john Curtice was on the 5 pm news and he said the latest polling was pointing very strongly towards Remain depending of course on the precise wording of the question.AnneJGP said:
That's interesting, and doesn't surprise me very much. During the EU referendum campaign, there was so much contradictory 'information' and passionate feelings flying around that I, for one, finally made up my mind going by gut instinct. And that doesn't tend to change.CarlottaVance said:
Good evening, everyone.
Point is we do have a brexit deal and TM daily mantra is we leave in March 190 -
Surely what we need to do on this "debate" is to lock May and Corbyn in a TV studio and keep broadcasting live until they come out with some sort of workable solution between them. As long as it takes.
Doubles up as a Big Brother replacement at the same time.0 -
At 75 years I may not see the debate endsolarflare said:Surely what we need to do on this "debate" is to lock May and Corbyn in a TV studio and keep broadcasting live until they come out with some sort of workable solution between them. As long as it takes.
Doubles up as a Big Brother replacement at the same time.0 -
I think I like it better edited this way...solarflare said:Surely what we need to do on this "debate" is to lock May and Corbyn in
0 -
Certainly the legislation makes it clear that the meaningful vote is in the Commons whilst the Lords simply have a debate. But the subsequent consequential legislation is likely to be problematic in both Houses (should we ever have to worry about that).Philip_Thompson said:
If the House of Commons backs someone - anything - it will be a massive constitutional outrage to see the unelected Lords attempt to stymie both the referendum result and the Commons own verdict on it. Can't see that happening, it is the Commons where the battle has to happen.DavidL said:
I linked to s13(1)(d) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act earlier. There are a veritable thicket of hurdles to be overcome, some of which, at least, also involve the Lords where the government is even shorter of a majority than it is in the Commons. It seems increasingly likely to me that remainers who were elected on respect the vote manifestos in 2017 are going to stop this.YellowSubmarine said:
That's very true and massively under analysed. A few of us raised it the other day and were told treaty making was a prerogative power 🤔 While technically true it misses your correct point.Casino_Royale said:
It’s worth noting May needs to win more than once.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with the broad thrust of that. The one thing May's deal has going for it is it's something. Everyone else is busily and sucessfully constructing blocking majorities against everything but May has her negotiated text. Now Labour's strategy can be very successful until the penultimate moment. But at the final moment to win they need their own text.stodge said:
I think we're getting somewhere. The debate will force Corbyn to come up with something and we'll see how much real support the notion of a new referendum has.Big_G_NorthWales said:I really do not think she expects the deal to get anywhere near approval but needs to get parliament to expose its positions and contradictions in order to find some consensus for the way forward
I doubt she wants to stop this deal being voted on and so she has to give it her backing and of course it will be a base for what happens next
May's last card is the lack of a majority for anything else will force people either to contemplate the consequences of No Deal (and I certainly don't buy any of the apocalyptic nonsense Carney was trying to sell yesterday) and let us drift to that point or to revisit the May deal, recognise its imperfections, recognise it is quite literally the only alternative and vote it through.
This is just the vote on it in principle. She needs to bring forward a bill (and win it all over again) in the new year.0 -
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
But all jezza will do is head for the nearest fence and sit on it screaming the tories, the tories, the tories for hours on end only to stop to complain he is missing I’m a celebrity.solarflare said:Surely what we need to do on this "debate" is to lock May and Corbyn in a TV studio and keep broadcasting live until they come out with some sort of workable solution between them. As long as it takes.
Doubles up as a Big Brother replacement at the same time.0 -
They could send in Piers Corbyn for a cameo, like when Big Brother sent in Jackie Stallone.FrancisUrquhart said:
But all jezza will do is head for the nearest fence and sit on it screaming the tories, the tories, the tories for hours on end.solarflare said:Surely what we need to do on this "debate" is to lock May and Corbyn in a TV studio and keep broadcasting live until they come out with some sort of workable solution between them. As long as it takes.
Doubles up as a Big Brother replacement at the same time.0 -
No Deal will do huge damage to the economy which would take years to recover from, either we Leave with a sane Brexit and a Deal or better not to Leave at allBeverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.0 -
Interesting....
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.0 -
Yes. I think you are right.Foxy said:
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.0 -
That would be the govt then. There is no Plan B apparently.MarqueeMark said:
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:0 -
Not very professional language Dr Fox but I am sure we understand the nuanceFoxy said:
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.0 -
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?0 -
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If you look through history it's complacent to think you can predict when rock bottom will be reached, which is why it's better not to go there.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I think you are right.Foxy said:
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.0 -
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What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!FrancisUrquhart said:Interesting....
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.0 -
I am more concerned some idiot who works at the BBC tried to make cheese on toast in a toaster.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
As far as I recall I do not think there has been much of a lead for remain over the other two combinedgrabcocque said:A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
I have for some days been warning on the referendum as it is not a quick fix that the likes of Adonis expect, indeed it is very complex, horribly divisive, and has an uncertain outcome0 -
Yes they are.grabcocque said:
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?0 -
Gwtting a bit confused now. What exactly did this fake vicar argue for (or against)?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Reverend Hayter is such a brilliant name:
- Obviously fake
- Oxymoron
- Neatly encapsulates that the person is a massive racist0 -
We tried that when I was a student. Just the once. To be fair, we did turn the toaster onto its side, but failed to account for a hole in the bread.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am more concerned some idiot who works at the BBC tried to make cheese on toast in a toaster.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...SandyRentool said:
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!FrancisUrquhart said:Interesting....
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.0 -
According to Alastair Osborne in today's Times Carney's Project Hysteria scenario for no deal includes the BOE increasing interest rates to 5.5%. No wonder then that house prices would reduce by 30%.0
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My uncle was* an alcoholic, so I know that even the situation I depicted doesn't always work. There are even worse lows sometimes. Some too painful to recall and with much collateral damage.williamglenn said:
If you look through history it's complacent to think you can predict when rock bottom will be reached, which is why it's better not to go there.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I think you are right.Foxy said:
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.
*I suppose he still is, but he has not had a drink for 20 years.0 -
Sorry. The Brexit thing is hopeless and bl**dy stupid.williamglenn said:
If you look through history it's complacent to think you can predict when rock bottom will be reached, which is why it's better not to go there.Beverley_C said:
Yes. I think you are right.Foxy said:
Before I came round to the idea of a #peoplesvote, that was my view.Beverley_C said:
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.HYUFD said:
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain winCarlottaVance said:
Like a drunk, Populism has to reach a nadir of waking in a pool of vomit in piss-stained pants before a recovery can start.
Goodnight0 -
Has Newsnight explained yet why they had a fake woman vicar on the show a few days ago?0
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@SandyRentool @FrancisUrquhart
Boys, I am going to change your lives... ready?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reusable-Toaster-Toastie-Sandwich-Toastabags/dp/B01CGTYC6U0 -
They should have used a fake Rabbi. Bloody anti-semites.AndyJS said:Has Newsnight explained yet why they had a fake woman vicar on the show a few days ago?
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What an age we live in.grabcocque said:@SandyRentool @FrancisUrquhart
Boys, I am going to change your lives... ready?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reusable-Toaster-Toastie-Sandwich-Toastabags/dp/B01CGTYC6U0 -
I assume if that amendment passes the Gov't simply drops the bill there and then ?Scott_P said:0 -
No, she was a real woman (I presume, I mean I haven't carried out the necessary inspection)AndyJS said:Has Newsnight explained yet why they had a fake woman vicar on the show a few days ago?
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0
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Really we need to just go for a solution that everyone dislikes. So Chequers it is!Big_G_NorthWales said:
As far as I recall I do not think there has been much of a lead for remain over the other two combinedgrabcocque said:A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
I have for some days been warning on the referendum as it is not a quick fix that the likes of Adonis expect, indeed it is very complex, horribly divisive, and has an uncertain outcome0 -
Scott_P said:
So: "declines to approve the Withdrawal Agreement..." and "...rejects the UK leaving the EU without an agreement..."
Which would leave us where precisely?0 -
I have used them. Dead good!grabcocque said:@SandyRentool @FrancisUrquhart
Boys, I am going to change your lives... ready?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reusable-Toaster-Toastie-Sandwich-Toastabags/dp/B01CGTYC6U0 -
Leave with May Deal 56%grabcocque said:A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Remain 44%
Leave with May Deal 58%
Leave without a Deal 42%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners.
Back May's Deal or face No Deal, there is no certain Remain vote in an EUref2
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10682027858402181120 -
Magic another agreement into existence.Benpointer said:Scott_P said:
So: "declines to approve the Withdrawal Agreement..." and "...rejects the UK leaving the EU without an agreement..."
Which would leave us where precisely?
Or remain.0 -
Sounds like somebody at the bbc needs to see that.grabcocque said:@SandyRentool @FrancisUrquhart
Boys, I am going to change your lives... ready?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reusable-Toaster-Toastie-Sandwich-Toastabags/dp/B01CGTYC6U
I have a feeling the person who came up with that might have done so after consumption of some illegal substances.0 -
Pension deficits problem solved though!steve_garner said:According to Alastair Osborne in today's Times Carney's Project Hysteria scenario for no deal includes the BOE increasing interest rates to 5.5%. No wonder then that house prices would reduce by 30%.
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It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.HYUFD said:
Leave with May Deal 56%grabcocque said:A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.0 -
I think you just have to tear the bill up if that amendment passes, it's a logical nonsense.Benpointer said:Scott_P said:
So: "declines to approve the Withdrawal Agreement..." and "...rejects the UK leaving the EU without an agreement..."
Which would leave us where precisely?0 -
But May's deal isn't leaving with no deal.grabcocque said:
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.HYUFD said:
Leave with May Deal 56%grabcocque said:A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1068243124076593152?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.0 -
BREAKING: Republican lobbyist just told me White House staffers are “in shock,” saying they weren’t aware Mueller or the FBI could indict witnesses who lied to Congress. A lot of them also never believed Trump had Russian business ties, until Michael Cohen’s plea deal today.
https://twitter.com/funder/status/1068209433463934981
HAHAHAHAHAHA.
Trump cadres who are too dumb to do basic research are the best.
0 -
A lovely discussion on Brexit with ordinary members of the public:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=uf1Fv5L51pU0 -
And, of course, rwas ever thusFrancisUrquhart said:
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...SandyRentool said:
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!FrancisUrquhart said:Interesting....
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup. :
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/tyke-that-fiery-fred-s-revealed-as-lancashire-s-most-famous-son-1-24737600 -
The ERG will surely vote against that amendment.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
The ERG, or enough of them and others at any rate, are saying remain is better than this deal. They may need to face that prospect for real very soon.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
When I was at Aberystwyth somebody tried to fry bread in a toaster. Pour oil on both sides, put in and press down.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sounds like somebody at the bbc needs to see that.grabcocque said:@SandyRentool @FrancisUrquhart
Boys, I am going to change your lives... ready?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Reusable-Toaster-Toastie-Sandwich-Toastabags/dp/B01CGTYC6U
I have a feeling the person who came up with that might have done so after consumption of some illegal substances.
They weren't imbibing illegal substances though, they were just pissed.
Admittedly the fire brigade were considerably more pissed when they realised what had caused the fire...0 -
So Labour are blocking the UK leaving without a deal and also blocking the deal?
May should just go to town on them refusing to listen to democracy and wanting to maintain open doors mass immigration.0 -
The Gov't might whip to vote against if the amendment passes I think though. It kills the WA !Big_G_NorthWales said:0
