A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
Leave with May Deal 58% Leave without a Deal 42%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners.
Nothing is a blow to the dishonestname campaigners. It's always been predicated on the basis that no matter what polls showed at the time, if asked again people would make the right choice. I reluctantly have said we need a new vote just so MPs actually make a decision, but the campaigners have been working on it for years no matter what any poll showed.
I am more concerned some idiot who works at the BBC tried to make cheese on toast in a toaster.....
We tried that when I was a student. Just the once. To be fair, we did turn the toaster onto its side, but failed to account for a hole in the bread.
These days, you can get little sachets or envelopes that you put the 'cheese sandwich' into, and it toasts it for you. More of a toasted cheese sandwich than cheese on toast, but perhaps that's what gave the idea?
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Labour are blocking the UK leaving without a deal and also blocking the deal?
You are expecting Jeremy Corbyn or Keri Starmer to understand basic logic.
When it was handed out they were there, but they weren't involved.
Keir Starmer is working for Labour to eventually back remain. If we won't back May's deal, and won't no deal, and if Labour cannot negotiate a new one or are not able to be in a position where they can, then what option remains for them but, er, remain?
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.
You know a few caveats on your posts, indeed most posts, would be wise in this chaotic time
I have been saying that TM is receiving a good public response, especially with women, who perceive the attacks on her as unfair and from some mysognist. More polls are needed but the next 2 weeks are going to be huge in the theatre of public opinion
Probably this just reflects Trump's consumer boom and the Chinese slowdown, but I did raise a wry smile. @RCS1000 would say it is all down to savings ratio.
The issue is that a tax cutting budget is likely to cause imports to be sucked in. (See Barber, Anthony.) If you reduce what people have to pay every month to the government, they have more money to spend, yet the productive power of the economy has not changed,
In this particular case, it is that the government - rather than the consumer - is the one doing the borrowing. But the effect is the same, to worsen the current account deficit.
(A corollary in the UK is that the relatively cautious, deficit reducing, budgets of Hammond have worked to increases the UK's aggregate savings rate, with the government portion of the equation borrowing less.)
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.
Well we’ve heard it all before.
U.K. manufacturing was going to leave if we didn’t join the Euro. Rubbish.
Osborne stood up and told us it would be instant recession and punishment budget if we voted leave. Rubbish.
Now it possibly true the latest round of dire scenarios are right, it’s possible they are not, however, wolf has been cried too often before.
The other problem for any referendum predicated in the British public not voting irrationally and massively against their own interests is
1) that's what the advocates of the referendum believed the UK did the first time around 2) the public don't expect to be given a vote on a choice between being rational and irrational.
They reasonably believe that any sane Government/Parliament would not allow them that choice. So the "irrational" choice is not really irrational. QED. And will reasonably not accept responsibility for being shown to be wrong.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
The referendum question is a tricky one. It's essentially trying to guess what will happen in the aftermath of May's deal getting trounced, when a large number of MPs will have to face up to the fact that it might not be possible to do what they said they would do, eg renegotiate (good luck to them if in fact they can do that). I think including May's deal would be unjustified if it is so comprehensively rejected, but if by some miracle May is not removed or quits after her deal is voted down, she would surely insist on its inclusion. But I don't see how no deal or remain get left off, if it is to get votes to be approved.
Except, we now know Maitlis was either lying or mistaken. The fake vicar came from an agency that specialises in providing "representative focus groups" (i.e. actors).
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
There are ways of resolving Condorcet cycles in pairwise voting, for example, using the Schulze method.
Which is what Nick Clegg should have proposed over AV. It has the amazing advantage that because the method is so complex, almost nobody fully understands it, and it's practically impossible to guess from looking at the raw data who's gonna win meaning the outcome is nearly always a surprise.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.
Well we’ve heard it all before.
U.K. manufacturing was going to leave if we didn’t join the Euro. Rubbish.
Osborne stood up and told us it would be instant recession and punishment budget if we voted leave. Rubbish.
Now it possibly true the latest round of dire scenarios are right, it’s possible they are not, however, wolf has been cried too often before.
It is also possible for the forecast to be in error in the opposite direction too.
Though I still think Brexit goes with a whimper rather than a bang.
Yes true. But when disaster is repeatedly forecast and doesn’t arrive it’s also logical for Joe Public to look at the latest dire warnings and go “yeah, right”.
Frankly a huge drop in the Pound and 5.5% interest rates would really suit me fine, so I’m in (probably a small group) for whom such warnings actually genuinely sound like manna from heaven.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
However, lets see
ISTR than in the three-question one, May's deal is actually a big drop from last time. TBH, these polls are a confused and contradictory mess. It proves fairly decisively that people find it hard to give meaningful answers to hypotheticals and counterfactuals.
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
I agree. It won’t solve anything, and could make things even worse.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
However, lets see
ISTR than in the three-question one, May's deal is actually a big drop from last time. TBH, these polls are a confused and contradictory mess. It proves fairly decisively that people find it hard to give meaningful answers to hypotheticals and counterfactuals.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
However, lets see
ISTR than in the three-question one, May's deal is actually a big drop from last time. TBH, these polls are a confused and contradictory mess. It proves fairly decisively that people find it hard to give meaningful answers to hypotheticals and counterfactuals.
Perhaps but given the sledging of May's deal by her opponents has been almost universally that it's shite, those are not bad numbers.
Except, we now know Maitlis was either lying or mistaken. The fake vicar came from an agency that specialises in providing "representative focus groups" (i.e. actors).
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.
Well we’ve heard it all before.
U.K. manufacturing was going to leave if we didn’t join the Euro. Rubbish.
Osborne stood up and told us it would be instant recession and punishment budget if we voted leave. Rubbish.
Now it possibly true the latest round of dire scenarios are right, it’s possible they are not, however, wolf has been cried too often before.
It is also possible for the forecast to be in error in the opposite direction too.
Though I still think Brexit goes with a whimper rather than a bang.
Yes true. But when disaster is repeatedly forecast and doesn’t arrive it’s also logical for Joe Public to look at the latest dire warnings and go “yeah, right”.
Frankly a huge drop in the Pound and 5.5% interest rates would really suit me fine, so I’m in (probably a small group) for whom such warnings actually genuinely sound like manna from heaven.
There's another factor too which is when you treat people like idiots and act condescendingly to them it is just as likely to get their back up and see pushback. These ludicrous Chicken Licken doom-mongering are likely for some people not just not believed but makes people think the opposite. If people think you're lying and that the only way to argue your case is to spread lies then that undermines rather than reinforces your case.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
Dear god there is always going to be an excuse isn't there.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
However, lets see
I can believe it. I just don't see how it matters to getting something like 50-70MPs to change their position when they have so clearly stated it. And if we all still expect the vote to be lost, how a second vote on it materialises even with a public move like this - the reasons for MPs voting against apply irrespective of public opinion, or at best lead to a second referendum
A political tribe is a political tribe, subject to the same political behaviours and even if it is a bit looser. I'd think of myself as a centrist type, leaning centre right, and I'd be naiive to think, however hard I might try, that I don't at least occasionally (and perhaps more than that) give in to the same impulses as any partisan.
Except, we now know Maitlis was either lying or mistaken. The fake vicar came from an agency that specialises in providing "representative focus groups" (i.e. actors).
I have to say I have always wondered what weirdos agree to go on politics show as part of a focus group. Same as why mr no brexit doesn’t appear to have a job nor a family that misses him.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
It's genuinely curious. Government spends two days going full-on apocalyptic about No Deal, and it actually becomes MORE popular.
That's it, I give up. I no longer understand anything in this world any more.
Well we’ve heard it all before.
U.K. manufacturing was going to leave if we didn’t join the Euro. Rubbish.
Osborne stood up and told us it would be instant recession and punishment budget if we voted leave. Rubbish.
Now it possibly true the latest round of dire scenarios are right, it’s possible they are not, however, wolf has been cried too often before.
It is also possible for the forecast to be in error in the opposite direction too.
Though I still think Brexit goes with a whimper rather than a bang.
I think the forecasts for FTA v full membership are immaterial over 15 years.
A lot of that difference is due to gross GDP output increase due to higher immigration, not GDP per capita.
Many people would prefer slightly people in a slightly smaller economy with their own net wealth unaffected. And that's before we get onto AI which might throw all sorts of economic models out of kilter over the next 20 years (hint: May's deal gives us full autonomy in digital regulation)
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
If we are no dealing why would the EU give us 24 months through an A50 delay? They were asking the WA as the price of buying us the same amount of time for transition!
I linked to s13(1)(d) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act earlier. There are a veritable thicket of hurdles to be overcome, some of which, at least, also involve the Lords where the government is even shorter of a majority than it is in the Commons. It seems increasingly likely to me that remainers who were elected on respect the vote manifestos in 2017 are going to stop this.
If the House of Commons backs someone - anything - it will be a massive constitutional outrage to see the unelected Lords attempt to stymie both the referendum result and the Commons own verdict on it. Can't see that happening, it is the Commons where the battle has to happen.
Certainly the legislation makes it clear that the meaningful vote is in the Commons whilst the Lords simply have a debate. But the subsequent consequential legislation is likely to be problematic in both Houses (should we ever have to worry about that).
More problematic in the Commons and if its gotten through the meaningful vote then I can't imagine too much desire to then risk it all there even. The Lords may 'ping pong' a couple of amendments but I think the lack of a majority in the Commons is a much greater concern for the government than a lack of majority in the Lords.
The ticking clock comes into play here too. The Lords don't have time to truly mess around with something the Commons have approved without risking not just a constitutional outrage but also risking an accidental no deal. Their Lordships (is that the right phrase?) can't afford to risk that.
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
Probably inevitably. Let's face it, the other two options are not exactly attractive, so the middle of the road was always going to draw some converts .... even if without any enthusiasm.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
If you have a three way referendum then you either have to do it two stage or by the alternative vote.
If parliament can't decide and it is put back to the people to Remain (terms tbc) or to Leave with May's deal, it does suggest it's not a foregone conclusion.
Here's a thought: If we end up with either No Deal or Remain there will be widescale civil protests and deep divisions that will take a long, long time to heal.
Only some kind of soft-Brexit deal (like May's or similar) can prevent that imo.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
Here's a thought: If we end up with either No Deal or Remain there will be widescale civil protests and deep divisions that will take a long, long time to heal.
Only some kind of soft-Brexit deal (like May's or similar) can prevent that imo.
Well divisions will exist that are hard to heal even then, but one would hope they are not quite so pronounced. It's the 'or similar' gang pushing us to remain or no deal though, so we had best pray they are right about getting something more.
That's against Remain, not No Deal. Project Fear should really be boosting Remain if it were working.
It might actually be damaging it however if it makes waverers believe this is the only chance we have to leave an EU that's only becoming less popular.
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
If we are no dealing why would the EU give us 24 months through an A50 delay? They were asking the WA as the price of buying us the same amount of time for transition!
Indeed. Quite frankly, if the tables were turned we'd tell them to FO and I'd expect them to do that to us in this instance.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
That would be incredibly intellectually dishonest of them.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
It has always been a toss-up. I would rather have that than no chance.
I think it unlikely though, as I predict the Commons to pass May's Brexit.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
That would be incredibly intellectually dishonest of them.
That's against Remain, not No Deal. Project Fear should really be boosting Remain if it were working.
It might actually be damaging it however if it makes waverers believe this is the only chance we have to leave an EU that's only becoming less popular.
Same poll had May's Deal v No Deal at 58% / 42% I believe.
When the Survation Mail poll came out I posted that direction of travel / momentum were what is key.
Now tonight's numbers bear that out - the momentum towards May's deal has continued and it's now in the lead in a head to head against either other option.
If this continues it could end up in the lead by a very wide margin.
Incidentally it's a long time since we've had a Voting intention poll.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
That would be incredibly intellectually dishonest of them.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
It has always been a toss-up. I would rather have that than no chance.
Even if it brings about no deal? You're more honest that many of our MPs.
When the Survation Mail poll came out I posted that direction of travel / momentum were what is key.
Now tonight's numbers bear that out - the momentum towards May's deal has continued and it's now in the lead in a head to head against either other option.
If this continues it could end up in the lead by a very wide margin.
Incidentally it's a long time since we've had a Voting intention poll.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
That would be incredibly intellectually dishonest of them.
So we should assume it will happen?
I think enough polls will look good enough for remain that they will not face that choice. But if it was certain remain would lose, I would not rule out such a campaign to lose faith in the voice of the people pretty darn quick.
Now tonight's numbers bear that out - the momentum towards May's deal has continued and it's now in the lead in a head to head against either other option.
Not really convinced that'll be the case (likely always to be fairly close), but if it did occur May might be tempted by a referendum to break the logjam.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
Dear god there is always going to be an excuse isn't there.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
Good point! I’m starting to think No Deal and all the misery, impoverishment and humiliation it will entail will be salutary in the long term. Let’s leave the Leavers nowhere to hide. After that we can grind the bastards into the dust.
Uh oh, people are getting optimistic about the deal again - now I'm waiting for the other show to drop, like a Gove special in coming out against it tomorrow or something.
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
It’s of course the prospect the backstop and the 27 have to agree vs 1 to break the final logjam. As we saw this week, Spain all of a sudden find a grievance etc etc etc.
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
Can we consider the possibility it's because they're idiots who haven't bothered to read what's on offer?
The funny thing is, I'm really drawn to it as a Remainer as well. It offers the prospect of keepin gmost of the stuff I like about the EU - free markets, free travel, security co-operation etc - while getting rid of the deeply problematic stuff like the ludicrous cumbersome bureaucracy, the old boys clubs, whoops, Parliament, Commission and Council and eliminates the kangaroo court, er CJEU.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
Dear god there is always going to be an excuse isn't there.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
Good point! I’m starting to think No Deal and all the misery, impoverishment and humiliation it will entail will be salutary in the long term. Let’s leave the Leavers nowhere to hide. After that we can grind the bastards into the dust.
That's a lot of pain to bring about on what you assume on little evidence will be a good long term outcome, clearly you have a lot more in common with no deal leavers than you perhaps might think.
Some overseas cricketers will be eligible to play for England after living in the country for three years under new rules coming in on 1 January.
The updated England and Wales Cricket Board rules mean, for example, that Sussex all-rounder Jofra Archer will be eligible to play for England next year.
I wonder if he caused the change or had any idea this might be possibly coming down the pipeline? He is conveniently going to be eligible for the World Cup.
What a joke. On that basis in 2 months time I'll become a Yorkshireman!
Well this days even been born in Lancashire is no barrier to playing for Yorkshire...
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
Dear god there is always going to be an excuse isn't there.
Survation this week had Remain 10% ahead of No Deal Leave and 9% ahead of Leave with a Deal but this Delta poll shows those relying on a ' People's Vote' are not guaranteed a Remain win
I think we have to Leave with No Deal. It is the only way to sort this out.
In which case the Brexit Show-trials that OGH is so keen on will be of those who blocked efforts to prepare - and left us unprotected from such an outcome.
If we are stupid enough to go down the No Deal route then we need to ditch May, let a hardliner take over, delay A50 for 24 months then leave.
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
Good point! I’m starting to think No Deal and all the misery, impoverishment and humiliation it will entail will be salutary in the long term. Let’s leave the Leavers nowhere to hide. After that we can grind the bastards into the dust.
Can't they put it on some obscure ppv channel? Why do I have to pay for it through my compulsory telly tax?
I think that's a great idea as discovering how many anoraks like us would pay to watch such a thing is probably a good way of gathering info on obsessive political weirdos for a government watchlist
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
The questioning leading up to this summary from Yvette Cooper shows why you're wrong to assume this will deliver what you expect. It's very much a pseudo-Brexit.
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
Probably inevitably. Let's face it, the other two options are not exactly attractive, so the middle of the road was always going to draw some converts .... even if without any enthusiasm.
On Peston one of the reporters explained it thus: "Ten friends go to a restaurant and they have to agree on what to eat. Five like beef, but not fish, the other five like fish but not beef. So they settle on Chicken, none of their favourites, but good enough."
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
Can we consider the possibility it's because they're idiots who haven't bothered to read what's on offer?
The funny thing is, I'm really drawn to it as a Remainer as well. It offers the prospect of keepin gmost of the stuff I like about the EU - free markets, free travel, security co-operation etc - while getting rid of the deeply problematic stuff like the ludicrous cumbersome bureaucracy, the old boys clubs, whoops, Parliament, Commission and Council and eliminates the kangaroo court, er CJEU.
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
Can we consider the possibility it's because they're idiots who haven't bothered to read what's on offer?
The funny thing is, I'm really drawn to it as a Remainer as well. It offers the prospect of keepin gmost of the stuff I like about the EU - free markets, free travel, security co-operation etc - while getting rid of the deeply problematic stuff like the ludicrous cumbersome bureaucracy, the old boys clubs, whoops, Parliament, Commission and Council and eliminates the kangaroo court, er CJEU.
What's not to like?
That it might not get delivered? Hotel California Brexit.....
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
So Remain beats No Deal if May's Deal is in the mix; No Deal beats Remain if May's Deal is not included. That's clear then.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
Yup. But it shows the difficulty of deciding what questions to ask, in what order, what precise wording, and what voting system to use when you have a non binary choice.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
Then it will become 'Parliament should decide'.......
Or, people realise May's deal isn't actually that bad.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
Can we consider the possibility it's because they're idiots who haven't bothered to read what's on offer?
The funny thing is, I'm really drawn to it as a Remainer as well. It offers the prospect of keepin gmost of the stuff I like about the EU - free markets, free travel, security co-operation etc - while getting rid of the deeply problematic stuff like the ludicrous cumbersome bureaucracy, the old boys clubs, whoops, Parliament, Commission and Council and eliminates the kangaroo court, er CJEU.
What's not to like?
That it might not get delivered? Hotel California Brexit.....
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
Probably inevitably. Let's face it, the other two options are not exactly attractive, so the middle of the road was always going to draw some converts .... even if without any enthusiasm.
On Peston one of the reporters explained it thus: "Ten friends go to a restaurant and they have to agree on what to eat. Five like beef, but not fish, the other five like fish but not beef. So they settle on Chicken, none of their favourites, but good enough."
Except these days one of them will be a militant vegan...who wont even eat the bread from the bread basket.
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
Probably inevitably. Let's face it, the other two options are not exactly attractive, so the middle of the road was always going to draw some converts .... even if without any enthusiasm.
On Peston one of the reporters explained it thus: "Ten friends go to a restaurant and they have to agree on what to eat. Five like beef, but not fish, the other five like fish but not beef. So they settle on Chicken, none of their favourites, but good enough."
Three decide immediately to just go home instead, and four others refuse to pay for it as it is not what they initially wanted, and a punch up ensues.
@Pulpstar NC9 gets murkier. The GOPer who was defeated in the primary is now throwing aspertions about their fellow GOP opponent. See the previous tweet as well.
A couple of notable things from that Deltapoll to tide us over until we get a proper thread on it:
1 - Both No Deal and May's deal being pairwise preferred to remain. First time I've seen that I think- and it suggests that maybe Project Fear 2/Project Hysteria might not being having the effect on the great unhosed it's meant to. It's remain that's lost by far the most ground.
BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR, PEOPLE'S VOTERS
2 - A swing against May's deal since the last poll, in the three-choice category, mostly to the benefit of no deal. Not big swings, but still a swing from May to No Deal, and not suggesting much in the way of the Big Mo for May.
Again, this is not what was supposed to be happening...
BTW, does anyone know whether Deltapoll is BPC registered?
Leave with May Deal 56% Remain 44%
That is a big boost for May and a blow to People's Vote campaigners
I think that's right, which means there's a shedload of arguments to get through before the referendum question could be settled.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
It's a horrible solution. I just don't see another one that looks like it will pass parliament and the EU in the time we have.
Let's see how quickly the p**ple's vote campaign rolls back on a 2nd referendum once they realise there's a serious chance they might actually lose it.
It has always been a toss-up. I would rather have that than no chance.
Even if it brings about no deal? You're more honest that many of our MPs.
The #peoplesvote vote would only happen if May's deal is voted down.
I predict that it will pass though. Tory Brexiteers are chickens.
That is a substantial move to TM. And I was ignored when I said she was cutting through
Probably inevitably. Let's face it, the other two options are not exactly attractive, so the middle of the road was always going to draw some converts .... even if without any enthusiasm.
On Peston one of the reporters explained it thus: "Ten friends go to a restaurant and they have to agree on what to eat. Five like beef, but not fish, the other five like fish but not beef. So they settle on Chicken, none of their favourites, but good enough."
Could have been worse. What Mogg and Corbyn are proposing is getting kicked out of the restaurant in a violent and disorderly fashion and being forced to eat pizza, outside, while cold, with extra pineapple.
Then they wonder why they are less popular than they feel they should be.
Comments
U.K. manufacturing was going to leave if we didn’t join the Euro. Rubbish.
Osborne stood up and told us it would be instant recession and punishment budget if we voted leave. Rubbish.
Now it possibly true the latest round of dire scenarios are right, it’s possible they are not, however, wolf has been cried too often before.
A new contender for most unselfaware post of 2018.
Scenario: Remain or leave with no deal
Remain: 48% (-2)
Leave without deal: 52% (+2)
Scenario: Remain or leave with May deal
Leave with May deal: 56%
Remain: 44%
Scenario: Remain is not an option
Leave with May deal: 58%
Leave without deal: 42%
Scenario: three-choice, first preference
Remain: 39%
Leave with May deal: 33%
Leave without deal: 28%
(source https://twitter.com/EuropeElects)
When it was handed out they were there, but they weren't involved.
It will be an interesting test for Corbyn.
Large pinch of salt anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_paradox
Though I still think Brexit goes with a whimper rather than a bang.
I have been saying that TM is receiving a good public response, especially with women, who perceive the attacks on her as unfair and from some mysognist. More polls are needed but the next 2 weeks are going to be huge in the theatre of public opinion
In this particular case, it is that the government - rather than the consumer - is the one doing the borrowing. But the effect is the same, to worsen the current account deficit.
(A corollary in the UK is that the relatively cautious, deficit reducing, budgets of Hammond have worked to increases the UK's aggregate savings rate, with the government portion of the equation borrowing less.)
1) that's what the advocates of the referendum believed the UK did the first time around
2) the public don't expect to be given a vote on a choice between being rational and irrational.
They reasonably believe that any sane Government/Parliament would not allow them that choice. So the "irrational" choice is not really irrational. QED. And will reasonably not accept responsibility for being shown to be wrong.
I’d fear the result, whatever it was, would be subject to all kinds of issues. It’s also far from a slam dunk for any choice.
This seems to be moving to confirm brexit of some kind is the publics choice
There are ways of resolving Condorcet cycles in pairwise voting, for example, using the Schulze method.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schulze_method
Which is what Nick Clegg should have proposed over AV. It has the amazing advantage that because the method is so complex, almost nobody fully understands it, and it's practically impossible to guess from looking at the raw data who's gonna win meaning the outcome is nearly always a surprise.
We should have a referendum on it.
Another reason why a 2nd ref doesn't feel like the right solution to me.
However, lets see
Frankly a huge drop in the Pound and 5.5% interest rates would really suit me fine, so I’m in (probably a small group) for whom such warnings actually genuinely sound like manna from heaven.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/steve-fisher-condorcet
At that point the leavers will finally have run out of f**ing excuses and there will be nobody else to blame, though I have no doubt some more will be dreamed up in the meantime. Iron law of Brexit, nothing is the fault of Brexit it is always just the wrong sort of Brexit.
A lot of that difference is due to gross GDP output increase due to higher immigration, not GDP per capita.
Many people would prefer slightly people in a slightly smaller economy with their own net wealth unaffected. And that's before we get onto AI which might throw all sorts of economic models out of kilter over the next 20 years (hint: May's deal gives us full autonomy in digital regulation)
The ticking clock comes into play here too. The Lords don't have time to truly mess around with something the Commons have approved without risking not just a constitutional outrage but also risking an accidental no deal. Their Lordships (is that the right phrase?) can't afford to risk that.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1068251408661659650
Only some kind of soft-Brexit deal (like May's or similar) can prevent that imo.
It might actually be damaging it however if it makes waverers believe this is the only chance we have to leave an EU that's only becoming less popular.
I think it unlikely though, as I predict the Commons to pass May's Brexit.
Now tonight's numbers bear that out - the momentum towards May's deal has continued and it's now in the lead in a head to head against either other option.
If this continues it could end up in the lead by a very wide margin.
Incidentally it's a long time since we've had a Voting intention poll.
So he clearly won't be doing a year abroad in the UK when he goes to college then.
Edit - the local squire where I grew up had the unfortunate name of Robin Hoare.
It's actually quite a hard Brexit. I'm baffled why more Brexiteers aren't fully behind it. I'd have killed for this (figuratively) three years ago.
If May deal is winning amongst all adults it must be winning by an absolute landslide amongst Con voters.
Are Con MPs speaking to their supporters in their constituencies?
The funny thing is, I'm really drawn to it as a Remainer as well. It offers the prospect of keepin gmost of the stuff I like about the EU - free markets, free travel, security co-operation etc - while getting rid of the deeply problematic stuff like the ludicrous cumbersome bureaucracy, the old boys clubs, whoops, Parliament, Commission and Council and eliminates the kangaroo court, er CJEU.
What's not to like?
https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1068134725578035201
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1068254621309837312?s=19
I predict that it will pass though. Tory Brexiteers are chickens.
I am not normally a fan of Republicans but this man deserves a medal*. He seems to be single-handedly saving US democracy and justice.
(* I appreciate he's already got quite a few!)
Then they wonder why they are less popular than they feel they should be.