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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn and TMay are scrapping over whether the BBC or ITV

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  • sladeslade Posts: 2,047
    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    It has been reported locally that the Syrian family are going to use the money to buy a house outside the area. This will not end well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Question Time: THERE'S NO NEED TO SHOUT.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,047
    slade said:

    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    It has been reported locally that the Syrian family are going to use the money to buy a house outside the area. This will not end well.
    Almondbury is a really nice area. Even the local Labour MP has a flat there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Question Time is so depressing. :(
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Aw, diddums. If MPs want to vote against the deal in mid December that's fine, but it seems reasonable that they then have to work throughout the period - we will be in crisis and needing to come up with another option, which might require substantial parliamentary debate, and a long recess can ill be afforded. Buckle up.

    But in contrast to some of the optimism on here, another story about opposition to the deal growing, not shrinking.
    There is no debate possible that will create a solution. The EU negotiates with governments not parliaments. All cutting the recess will do is give people more time to repeat their lines - there is no willingness to listen or compromise being shown by those who oppose the deal.

    Parliament cannot set the terms for any negotiation - we don't have a system that makes that in any way feasible.

    Stalemate means No Deal - that is what the existing legislation means. We leave without a deal at the end of March.

    There is but one deal on the table. There is no prospect of re-opening the negotiations. MPs have to come to terms with that fact.

    Refusing the accept the deal means no deal. Nothing they can say or do alters that fact.

    Is it a great deal? No. It is workable - probably. Is there a viable alternative? No.

    Yes, opposition is there to oppose - but it is also there to put forward a viable alternative and vision. As of yet, I have seen nothing resembling that from anyone who has spoken out against the deal.
    I agree with you, but MPs do not and they are going to vote down the deal and then demand we do something else. All the more reason not to recess. If you are right and they need to face up to the facts they should exhaust all their options and come to terms with it before Christmas, not waste even more time and wait until afterwards.
    I don't understand why MPs are being so obtuse with this. We can see the reality. Most people can. Just they are so blinkered. And that is a plague on all their houses - not a party political thing.
  • slade said:

    slade said:

    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    It has been reported locally that the Syrian family are going to use the money to buy a house outside the area. This will not end well.
    Almondbury is a really nice area. Even the local Labour MP has a flat there.
    If you’d been repeatedly beaten up there by EDL supporting toerags, you might not feel too warmly about it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    slade said:

    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    It has been reported locally that the Syrian family are going to use the money to buy a house outside the area. This will not end well.
    The perpetrator's facebook before it was taken down wasn't exactly a picture of roses and love..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    Why's that? Genuine question, haven't been following the news very closely today.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    Why's that? Genuine question, haven't been following the news very closely today.
    The Deltapoll, as @MikeL says there is considerable swing to May's deal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    AndyJS said:
    We train a fair number, but the retention rate is low. 2 years after qualification barely 50% are continuing in GP or Specialist training.

    There are several new Medical Schools starting, in Lincs and Essex and a couple of othwr difficult to staff places. How much difference it will make with such poor retention rates.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Pretty shoddy of Corbyn to choose a commercial TV station over a nationalised one. I think it's an excuse because of Corbyn's famed iinability to grasp detail. He's hoping ITV's commercial breaks will give him time to dust himself down between rounds
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Question Time is so depressing. :(

    Where's it taking place?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Layla Moran ought to be leading the LDs as soon as possible IMO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Roger said:

    Question Time is so depressing. :(

    Where's it taking place?
    Penzance
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Much as I wish it wasn’t so, May’s deal seems to be fulfilling Thatcher’s old adage of the middle of the road problem.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    AndyJS said:

    Layla Moran ought to be leading the LDs as soon as possible IMO.

    Leading them where? Complete oblivion? She is not going to lead them to victory
  • rpjs said:

    Remember the lack of preparedness of the German military.....

    https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1068255923603415046

    To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.
    https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1068245064869138438?s=20
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    AndyJS said:

    Layla Moran ought to be leading the LDs as soon as possible IMO.

    She’s head and shoulders above the rest of her party.

    Her constraint is the party itself, though.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Roger said:

    Pretty shoddy of Corbyn to choose a commercial TV station over a nationalised one. I think it's an excuse because of Corbyn's famed iinability to grasp detail. He's hoping ITV's commercial breaks will give him time to dust himself down between rounds

    No - he doesn't want the debate at all. By opposing the BBC option, he is hoping it will just go away.

    His posturing on this has been infantile.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    OT. Just been for a days training on Universal Credit. Politics isn't over after Brexit. Slow Train Coming.
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    Foxy said:

    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    What has Leave got to do with teenage racist bullying?
    This story stimulates some people to stoke up their xenophobia, using ideas such as "they touch up our girls" (see the vile contribution by Tommy Robinson) and related ideas which cannot be said above the line in the context of this story in the mainstream media (and are all the more powerful for it) such as "this shows that having them here in the first place was a bad idea" and "they get given huge handouts while white people have it hard". And...what's this? Another release for the horrible people who have such minds, a chance to send the authorities a message, may soon be at hand.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JohnLoony said:

    I think there should be a referendum on whether the Brexit debate is on BBC or ITV.

    A peoples vote - yes, sounds like a plan :-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Floater said:

    JohnLoony said:

    I think there should be a referendum on whether the Brexit debate is on BBC or ITV.

    A peoples vote - yes, sounds like a plan :-)
    The only one they'll get......
  • NEW THREAD with a first going begging.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Notch said:

    Foxy said:

    Notch said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It definitely feels like the zeitgeist is swinging back toward Brexit this evening, parliament out of touch.

    The Sun is reporting, helped in their distribution by Google, that the Syrian bullying victim in Huddersfield has received £135000 in donations. That kind of news helps Leave a lot.

    The country is f*cked.
    What has Leave got to do with teenage racist bullying?
    This story stimulates some people to stoke up their xenophobia, using ideas such as "they touch up our girls" (see the vile contribution by Tommy Robinson) and related ideas which cannot be said above the line in the context of this story in the mainstream media (and are all the more powerful for it) such as "this shows that having them here in the first place was a bad idea" and "they get given huge handouts while white people have it hard". And...what's this? Another release for the horrible people who have such minds, a chance to send the authorities a message, may soon be at hand.
    I expect that you are right, that people like "Tommy Robinson" will take the side of the bully.

    While obsessed by Brexit, it has barely been discussed that we added 248 000 non EU migrants mostly from Asia, Middle East and Africa. Not sure that is the Leave that the bullies of Huddersfield wanted.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @Grabcocque

    May's deal is the clear Schulze method winner. p[M,N] = 59; p[M,R] = 56; p[N,R] = 52. No other paths. Therefore M > N > R

    It is also the alternative vote winner. [R = 39, M = 33, N = 28] -> [M = 56, R = 44]

    I think you're using the wrong path strengths, but it doesn't change the outcome:

    Schulze election results
    MayDeal wins the Schulze election.

    The ranked ballots:

    4:NoDeal>Remain>MayDeal
    12:MayDeal>Remain>NoDeal
    16:MayDeal>NoDeal>Remain

    Comparisons of strongest beatpaths for each pair of candidates:
    MayDeal>NoDeal 28 4 NoDeal>MayDeal
    MayDeal>Remain 28 4 Remain>MayDeal
    NoDeal>Remain 20 12 Remain>NoDeal

    MayDeal is the only candidate to lose no beatpath comparisons and so wins the election outright.


  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    dixiedean said:

    OT. Just been for a days training on Universal Credit. Politics isn't over after Brexit. Slow Train Coming.

    Do surprise us tell us what you discovered about UC.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    edited November 2018

    rpjs said:

    Remember the lack of preparedness of the German military.....

    https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1068255923603415046

    To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.
    https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1068245064869138438?s=20
    The take away here is, because the time zone difference is small, and despite any memories of the team force taking a long time to reach these parts, we tend to not realise quite how far away Buenos Aires is.

    As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.

    It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.

    That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    AndyJS said:
    Would help if we didn’t charge them £54,000 for the privilege of training to be one
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Well now there was an interesting surprise this evening.

    An old friend of mine from school who I only keep in contact with via FB popped up a posting. Life long old fashioned left winger, Labour party member and activist. He was posting one of the latest pieces from Spiked. I knew he had voted Remain last time and In the conversation below I said jokingly I was surprised he was posting pro-Leave stuff. His reply was:

    "I voted remain, for economic reasons, but I'm so disillusioned by the liberal elite trying to destroy what the people voted for that I will vote leave should we ever have to do it again (which we shouldn't)."

    Now I don't doubt for a minute he will be a pretty rare beast with that view but coming from the Leave side I was obviously pleased to see there are at least a few hardy souls who have been swayed away from Remain by the attitudes of the political classes.

    I don't think he would be that rare. The far left have been anti EU for decades. And older working class people are often too, even if they aren't also left wing. I see it quite clearly in my own working class family. The young ones are all very pro EU. The older ones very anti. My Dad was persuaded by me to vote remain but now thinks a bit like I gave him a bad racing tip and would vote leave.

    I think the only thing that will change if another vote happens is that remainers will be more motivated to turn out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742


    Well now there was an interesting surprise this evening.

    An old friend of mine from school who I only keep in contact with via FB popped up a posting. Life long old fashioned left winger, Labour party member and activist. He was posting one of the latest pieces from Spiked. I knew he had voted Remain last time and In the conversation below I said jokingly I was surprised he was posting pro-Leave stuff. His reply was:

    "I voted remain, for economic reasons, but I'm so disillusioned by the liberal elite trying to destroy what the people voted for that I will vote leave should we ever have to do it again (which we shouldn't)."

    Now I don't doubt for a minute he will be a pretty rare beast with that view but coming from the Leave side I was obviously pleased to see there are at least a few hardy souls who have been swayed away from Remain by the attitudes of the political classes.

    I don't think he would be that rare. The far left have been anti EU for decades. And older working class people are often too, even if they aren't also left wing. I see it quite clearly in my own working class family. The young ones are all very pro EU. The older ones very anti. My Dad was persuaded by me to vote remain but now thinks a bit like I gave him a bad racing tip and would vote leave.

    I think the only thing that will change if another vote happens is that remainers will be more motivated to turn out.
    Spikedonline has not been a left wing journal for a long time. It has moved a long way from its roots in Living Marxism. It has been a pretty vocal supporter of the populist right for years.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    AndyJS said:
    Would help if we didn’t charge them £54,000 for the privilege of training to be one
    There are plenty of applicants still, it is the dropout rate and post qualification retention that is the problem.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    rpjs said:

    Remember the lack of preparedness of the German military.....

    https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1068255923603415046

    To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.
    Only one RAF Voyager (ZZ336) is VIP configured. Voyager technical availability is quite good. As well it should be. If they can't operate an A330 fleet reliably they should just give up.
This discussion has been closed.