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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile the approval rating of the EU leadership by UK voter

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  • They’re seeing the long term with crystal clarity: a dominant, powerful EU on our doorstep that we will have no say in.
    I want no say in the EU. I am quite content for them to rule themselves as they see fit. Has Remainerdom become a home for unrequited Imperialists?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467

    The idealistic Leavers form a particularly tight social, media and political group, heavily centred in London.

    I suspect there's a lot of peer influencing/pressure going on.

    I thought London was the stronghold of the "metropolitan liberal elite" who voted REMAIN and were undone by provincial "middle" England in June 2016.

  • Do you think the UK will be able to sign a trade deal with the USA that will apply in Belfast?
    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
  • stodge said:

    Apparently elements within the CBI aren't so enamoured of Theresa's Deal as you think:

    http://www.cityam.com/269590/its-not-good-deal-internal-emails-reveal-cbi-doubts-over

    By the way, from a strongly pro-business newspaper, this take on the Withdrawal Agreement:

    http://www.cityam.com/269526/brexit-brino-10-capitulations-theresa-may
    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
    The final deal depends on who is PM after December. Hopefully not May.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,353
    Regarding Northern Ireland, the more I think about it, the more I think both the UK and the Republic are enormously incentivised to come to a rapid solution. You see, the longer a "dual" status for Northern Ireland exists, the harder it will be, on the ground, to change it.

    Why?

    Well, Northern Ireland is likely to benefit from its dual structure. It will be part of the UK from a tax and employment legislation perspective. And yet will have zero barriers to trade with the rest of the EU. It suddenly looks like exactly where I'd want to set up a business that served both markets. If I were importing goods from - say - Brazil and selling them into both markets, then warehousing them in Belfast suddenly seems like a really good idea.

    In other words, this deal is likely to end up being pretty popular in the Province. (And, ironically, being less popular in the Republic, because - for the first time - there will be an incentive to have your business in the North rather than the South.) Northern Ireland won't want to leave the arrangement.
  • TGOHF said:

    The final deal depends on who is PM after December. Hopefully not May.

    I agree with that but you have to get the deal on the statute. If you want a new leader after march I have no problem with that
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805

    LOL. William is starting to worry. Always a good sign,
    I’m not worried. I’m just amused at the desperate face-saving going on.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    edited November 2018
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Away from matters Brexit, a local election taking place tomorrow:

    https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/surrey-county-council-leadership-election-15448869

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    rcs1000 said:

    I don't think a UK-UK trade deal has ever been particularly likely.
    No, nor do I. Why would we need a deal with ourselves? Even Liam Fox would manage that...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467


    On the first report the CBI recognise it is not perfect but it is necessary

    I trust the CBI's recognition that the Deal is "necessary to protect jobs and growth" won't be spun by those on the Government side as a ringing endorsement of the Prime Minister and her negotiating skills.

    There's clearly very little enthusiasm for the Deal - there's a recognition that set against the seeming disaster of crashing out without a Deal it keeps business moving and making money and may enable us to continue our anaemic economic growth which a No Deal, according to some, wouldn't.

    My fear is those well disposed toward the Government will seek to spin the fact of a Deal as a political triumph for the Prime Minister - it isn't. If the narrow prevention of a totally avoidable disaster is now the definition of political success, it say very little for May and her Government's performance throughout the negotiating process.

    Any measure of relief should therefore be tempered by the asking of searching questions about what has happened and why it was allowed to happen.
  • JohnO said:

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    I've always considered you more of a Prince-elector.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467
    JohnO said:

    There is indeed and I am one of the 60 Grand Electors.
    Interesting group of runners and riders. I'm personally surprised there isn't a woman on the shortlist.
  • stodge said:

    I trust the CBI's recognition that the Deal is "necessary to protect jobs and growth" won't be spun by those on the Government side as a ringing endorsement of the Prime Minister and her negotiating skills.

    There's clearly very little enthusiasm for the Deal - there's a recognition that set against the seeming disaster of crashing out without a Deal it keeps business moving and making money and may enable us to continue our anaemic economic growth which a No Deal, according to some, wouldn't.

    My fear is those well disposed toward the Government will seek to spin the fact of a Deal as a political triumph for the Prime Minister - it isn't. If the narrow prevention of a totally avoidable disaster is now the definition of political success, it say very little for May and her Government's performance throughout the negotiating process.

    Any measure of relief should therefore be tempered by the asking of searching questions about what has happened and why it was allowed to happen.
    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307

    I've always considered you more of a Prince-elector.
    I was being shy, diffident and retiring.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805
    rcs1000 said:

    Regarding Northern Ireland, the more I think about it, the more I think both the UK and the Republic are enormously incentivised to come to a rapid solution. You see, the longer a "dual" status for Northern Ireland exists, the harder it will be, on the ground, to change it.

    Why?

    Well, Northern Ireland is likely to benefit from its dual structure. It will be part of the UK from a tax and employment legislation perspective. And yet will have zero barriers to trade with the rest of the EU. It suddenly looks like exactly where I'd want to set up a business that served both markets. If I were importing goods from - say - Brazil and selling them into both markets, then warehousing them in Belfast suddenly seems like a really good idea.

    In other words, this deal is likely to end up being pretty popular in the Province. (And, ironically, being less popular in the Republic, because - for the first time - there will be an incentive to have your business in the North rather than the South.) Northern Ireland won't want to leave the arrangement.

    There’s an internal contradiction in your argument. It can’t benefit from long-term investment decisions unless it’s a stable arrangement.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    There’s an internal contradiction in your argument. It can’t benefit from long-term investment decisions unless it’s a stable arrangement.
    Well, if RCS is right they'll shout themselves horse to keep it...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467


    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on

    So instead of arguing and persuading you're now hoping people will be so bored and apathetic they'll swallow any old nonsense the Government peddles.



  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    edited November 2018
    stodge said:

    Interesting group of runners and riders. I'm personally surprised there isn't a woman on the shortlist.
    Possibly, but you can't force someone to stand. Who do you think will win? My lips are sealed (though naturally I have a view!), By the way, there's no shortlist - these are the candidates who have put themselves forward for election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    I really do not think the man/ woman on the Clapham bus cares. They just want to move on
    Fat chance of moving on if they're on a Clapham omnibus!
  • Might I suggest you actually read the WA before making such dumb claims.
    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467
    JohnO said:


    Possibly, but you can't force someone to stand. Who do you think will win? My lips are sealed (though naturally I have a view!)

    I think it's between John Furey and Tim Oliver. It's not going to be an easy job with the ongoing consultation process and the proposed changes to Services which won't be an easy sell. Try telling a local community they are going to lose their Library and see how far you get.

    On that basis, I think Tim Oliver might be the better media presence.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,454
    edited November 2018

    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    Is what corbyn said when told to read it....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507

    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    Fine.

    But don't then comment on it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,805

    585 pages of legalese? No thanks.
    People are deluding themselves if they think the principle of the backstop will not be perpetuated I’m the long-term relationship.
  • stodge said:

    So instead of arguing and persuading you're now hoping people will be so bored and apathetic they'll swallow any old nonsense the Government peddles.



    There are a multitude of views but the public have had enough. You hear the cry 'get on with it' - 'they hear TM and the EU have agreed' The polling on this after the weekend will be interesting

    For me this deal fulfils the referendum but if lost we need to remain
  • NEW THREAD

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,467
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:


    Fine.

    But don't then comment on it.

    That's an extraordinary comment. It should be possible to produce a version that is neutral, comprehensible and accessible to all sections of the population.

    This is the future of our country with which we are dealing and every effort should be made to ensure people are aware of what is being proposed and understand it. Hiding it behind legalese is as reprehensible as Theresa May saying "Trust Me". People should be able to form their opinions and be presented with a comprehensible analysis.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,507
    stodge said:

    That's an extraordinary comment. It should be possible to produce a version that is neutral, comprehensible and accessible to all sections of the population.

    This is the future of our country with which we are dealing and every effort should be made to ensure people are aware of what is being proposed and understand it. Hiding it behind legalese is as reprehensible as Theresa May saying "Trust Me". People should be able to form their opinions and be presented with a comprehensible analysis.

    It is perfectly comprehensible.

    Anyone merely commenting on it through the prism of their own selected media is simply going to end up embarrassing themselves, as happened here (EU law will not apply to us after we leave).
  • Evening Dr P. My yellow pen was busy at the weekend - the Henley on Thames branch.
    Nice - I did that way back in 2011. For me, apart from some rare weekend-only routes in England, and the new Rotherham to Sheffield Tram, I need Ayr to Stranraer, the Cowdenbath Loop, and all of Scotland north of Helensburgh/Balloch/Milngavie/Falkirk/Ladybank/Leuchars.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    rcs1000 said:

    If I look on this site, it seems that - reluctantly in some cases - a clear majority of Leavers back this deal over No Deal: MaxPB, Richard_Tyndall, yourself, Sean Fear, (edit to add Charles), myself and a few others.

    There are some who regard it is a complete betrayal - such as geoffw, GIN and MarqueeMark - but they are in the minority.

    So, I'm struggling with why there are so many backbench Conservative MPs opposed? Sure, it's not perfect, but there is no perfect option.
    They don't believe/care about the consequences of no deal, whatever they might claim, and because it is not perfect they are no political benefit to voting for it. Plus the arch remainers. Seems straight forward.
This discussion has been closed.