Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
We have 135 DAYS to Brexit day. To get an agreement we have to have a text agreed by the UK government and Barnier, that text has to be voted on and agreed by EuCoun by QMV, then passed to Europarl for a majority vote, the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
I disbelieve with some considerable force that a further negotiation is possible in time.
I expect he is presuming an extension would be asked for and given.
Which is probably - but not certainly - true.
Even if it was true, it would just increase EU leverage, leading to a worse deal.
Essentially these scenarios are why I think May is more optimistic about her deal going through than the initial headlines suggest. No deal just isn't an option for anyone but the most pigheaded Brexiteers - it's not that it's eternally impossible, it's just the total clean break they have been demanding was and is only feasible after long process of building up competencies, infrastructure and legal frameworks. You can't disentangle four decades of economic intergration in two years, much of which was was wasted. It would create chaos - the reason Brexiteers often mouth off when they're outside and then end up cowering when they see the horrid detail. So, it's this deal or extend article 50 - which would of course increase EU leverage if we were negotiating again, so back to square one. So at that point a new referendum becomes not just justifiable, but likely, maybe even necessary - I think at that point even Corbyn can't put his head in the sand. For leavers it may be this deal or placing an awful lot of chips on the notion all of the 17 million want what they want at all costs and are as enthusiastic about heading to the polls rather than disillusioned - because remainers have certainly been galvanised by defeat.
If I were a Brexiteer, I know I'd take May's deal rather than make a big bet on a bad hand.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
He is a die-hard Corbynite. How is it unreasonable to characterise that as "hard left"? And he IS selling snake oil. That isn't an insult. It's the reality.
No he ain't. He's a Party loyalist. He was a pretty mainstream MP under Blair. If your view is that he is wrong, then that is fair enough. But die-hard Corbynite. No. Anyway, he can speak for himself.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
It's not a question of giving up; it's a question of what else can be done.
A second referendum cannot deliver a different deal. It either ratifies this one, chucks us out with the hardest of Brexits, or (possibly, if it's legally possible), drops the UK back into the EU, and several million voters back into the lap of UKIP. What it doesn't do is produce a different deal.
Likewise, a general election might well (probably would) produce a different government and they might be able to negotiate a different deal but that only happens if the DUP withdraw C&S, which despite their anger today still seems unlikely given that they can block the deal and still keep the Tories in power in a hung parliament, which is an ideal situation for them.
As for further negotiations, yes, they could and would occur and perhaps the EU might give a little ground somewhere with 'clarifications' as to what the wording means, but nothing of substance is likely to change - certainly nothing sufficient to meet Labour's tests. And then what? It's one thing to vote it down in December but suppose Deal v1.0.1 comes back in February: do you vote it down again, which really would lead to No Deal, or do you accept it, in which case you might as well have done so at the first time of asking.
I think you forget that Nick has often emphasised that Jeremy does not particularly care about Brexit, one way or the other. A general election is another matter.
True, but that wasn't Nick's point. He said
"I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc"
In truth, it *is* This Deal / No Deal / Remain, as the only options (and Remain is an extreme edge case).
I do see how you get a general election before 29 March but it still seems pretty damn unlikely to me.
I hate to be cynical (and could, of course, be wrong), but it does sound as though the intention is to look for justifications, flimsy or not, for voting against the deal in order to precipitate an election. The Brexit outcome is secondary.
To be honest a deal which pleases no one is probably the best outcome now. No triumphalism from either side.
I think you'll find the vast majority of Remainer's are completely cock-a-hoop with this (I thought Kenneth Clarke MP was actually going to fall to his knees and kiss Theresa May's feet at PMQ's today)
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
Mogg on Peston says it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the PM from her policy but he has not submitted a letter asking for a no confidence vote yet
What a f***ing surprise.
He can never quite find the quill and ink when he thinks he might need it.
To be fair, having your footman bring a candle on these dark nights falls foul of several sovereignty impinging EU health and safety laws.
Mogg on Peston says it is increasingly difficult to distinguish the PM from her policy but he has not submitted a letter asking for a no confidence vote yet
To be honest a deal which pleases no one is probably the best outcome now. No triumphalism from either side.
I think you'll fine the vast majority of Remainer's are completely cock-a-hoop with this (I thought Kenneth Clarke MP was actually going to fall to his knees and kiss Theresa May's feet at PMQ's today)
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
There will be an election in 2019, whether there is a deal or not. The DUP are locked in to that now, whatever their pronouncements otherwise might be.
My gods, trying to find votes for a policy from anyone, on the basis that the policy is more important than party, what a betrayal.
I thought Brexit was supposed to be for everyone, not just Tories.
Edit : I know it's just political rhetoric, and I know May is only meeting with Corbyn because her position is so desperate, but do MPs really believe it is betrayal to work with the other side sometimes? This whole Brexit issue has not been cross party enough, both sides have acted like it is an issue which can easily be put into left and right boxes, which it can't (even if remain/leave are more one side than the other, the various flavours of leave are far more complicated).
Good news Iain, you can, it's called a second referendum.
Truth is, he is right. As is Boris and all the others. This is worse than the deal we had carefully arranged with the EU over 40 years.
Hey ho.
These idiots started all this.
If they truly believe not exiting is better than exiting this badly, I can respect that position. But I would expect them to declare that to be the case openly and honestly and campaign for it on that basis.
There will be an election in 2019, whether there is a deal or not. The DUP are locked in to that now, whatever their pronouncements otherwise might be.
I think that is probably right. Can't see how the agreement lasts another full year.
To be honest a deal which pleases no one is probably the best outcome now. No triumphalism from either side.
I think you'll fine the vast majority of Remainer's are completely cock-a-hoop with this (I thought Kenneth Clarke MP was actually going to fall to his knees and kiss Theresa May's feet at PMQ's today)
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
William Glenn not onboard !
William Glenn is "eccentric" - 90% of Remainer's will be delighted with TM's deal as we remain in CU forever or until we have been given permission by our masters to leave which means we never actually leave.
I see we have been gifted the presence of an enthusiastic CCHQ intern a little too eager to hammer out whatever desperate line has been cobbled together for this fiasco. Rein it in a bit Theo. Bit too obvious.
There will be an election in 2019, whether there is a deal or not. The DUP are locked in to that now, whatever their pronouncements otherwise might be.
I think that is probably right. Can't see how the agreement lasts another full year.
And the government won't survive as a minority because its awkward squad is too large to manage even if the numbers of the rest do not always show up in full.
"I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc"
In truth, it *is* This Deal / No Deal / Remain, as the only options (and Remain is an extreme edge case).
I do see how you get a general election before 29 March but it still seems pretty damn unlikely to me.
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
Theo's correct that I like Corbyn and think we needed someone like him to revive the purpose of Labour. I don't think I'm particularly "hard" anything, and if he'd been around here longer he'd probably have noticed that - I'm the counterpart to Sean Fear, who is right-wing and occasionally provokes but doesn't really pick on anyone. But anonymous critics, shrug anyway.
Final prediction - the public won't like it, but that's not the critical issue, MP support is. That support will harden over the coming days. May will survive a vote of no confidence as Tory leader, but it will be clear she will not pass her deal, but it will still come to a vote at some point to confirm that.
After that, god only knows - I'm leaning second ref with Labour backing.
There will be an election in 2019, whether there is a deal or not. The DUP are locked in to that now, whatever their pronouncements otherwise might be.
Yes!!!! Bring on Jezza! Let's see how the UK establishment and civil service get on with a pair of Marxist's running the show.
First thing he can do is send Olly Robbins off to Siberia.
To be honest a deal which pleases no one is probably the best outcome now. No triumphalism from either side.
I think you'll fine the vast majority of Remainer's are completely cock-a-hoop with this (I thought Kenneth Clarke MP was actually going to fall to his knees and kiss Theresa May's feet at PMQ's today)
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
William Glenn not onboard !
William Glenn is "eccentric" - 90% of Remainer's will be delighted with TM's deal as we remain in CU forever or until we have been given permission by our masters to leave which means we never actually leave.
The winners have lost and the losers have won.
"Brexit has cost you your strength! Victory has defeated you!"
"I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc"
In truth, it *is* This Deal / No Deal / Remain, as the only options (and Remain is an extreme edge case).
I do see how you get a general election before 29 March but it still seems pretty damn unlikely to me.
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
Why would an election lead to an improvement in outcome? What if it returns similar proportions of MPs to now? Clearly you would not support a broadly similar deal brought by a different government because its the deal itself which is feeble.
This is still just blind assumptions that a specific path will definitely lead to positive outcome...somehow.
It's fine for an MP to make that choice, but with an actually available deal vs some mythical one which would be nebulously better in some way, it's one heck of a gamble. It's also the same thing Boris and co have been peddling, it's nice to see cross party support for a policy of 'it'll work out better next time, for sure'.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
He is a die-hard Corbynite. How is it unreasonable to characterise that as "hard left"? And he IS selling snake oil. That isn't an insult. It's the reality.
No he ain't. He's a Party loyalist. He was a pretty mainstream MP under Blair. If your view is that he is wrong, then that is fair enough. But die-hard Corbynite. No. Anyway, he can speak for himself.
He’s said in his youth he was a Communist who trimmed under Blair but is happier withCorbyn. But he can speak for himself
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
Ah I see, sorry - misunderstood.
I think the hard limit is May, to be honest, because if we’re still in by then we’d have to have European elections....
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
It is this deal (or something very like it). The EU have spent 2 years negotiating with us.
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
There were differing accounts as to the mood of the cabinet. Some declared it had been “quite positive” and “generally all reasonably polite and businesslike”. Others, though, claimed afterwards the mood was “worse than Chequers”. In the first hour, the balance between those in favour and those against “felt tight”. By the end, though “the lead in favour extended”.
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
It is this deal (or something very like it). The EU have spent 2 years negotiating with us.
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
The EU may, as is their wont, be rather vaguer than that. But those pushing that a new deal would be easy, through simple extensions, are knowingly peddling misleading solutions like a Leave.EU campaign.
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
It is this deal (or something very like it). The EU have spent 2 years negotiating with us.
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
I think they would be happy to if it meant negotiating with a team not beholden to the DUP & ERG.
Any labour rebels on a vote this important will absolutely 100% be deselected. I don't think enough will want to die on this hill.
Absolutely pathetic. Corbyn's Brexit virtually identical to May's and all they are interested in is petty politics rather than the good of the country.
Though May will surely be tempted to remove the whip from the ERG rebels and may well do so
What he hell is a civil servant doing "shouting down" anyone much less an elected Cabinet Minister?
Ms McVey, one of the most ardent Brexiteers of the cabinet, demanded a vote during the meeting to force each minister to commit definitively one way or another to the draft Brexit deal.
Colleagues were unimpressed, with one describing her as “aggressive” and another describing a “massive row” which “got really fruity” with the minister pushing her point more than once.
Ms McVey was then shut down by Julian Smith, the chief whip, and Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary.
Sir Mark “raised his voice” and “read out the cabinet manual to her” to remind her of the principles of collective cabinet responsibility. It is a moment some Brexiteers are unlikely to forget in a hurry.
The EU may, as is their wont, be rather vaguer than that. But those pushing that a new deal would be easy, through simple extensions, are knowingly peddling misleading solutions.
The EU have other problems that need urgent attention.
There is a limit to how much time they can spend dealing with UK politicians who think a better deal is along the yellow brick road.
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
It is this deal (or something very like it). The EU have spent 2 years negotiating with us.
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
I think they would be happy to if it meant negotiating with a team not beholden to the DUP & ERG.
You are as delusional as Jacob Rees-Mogg. Just the other side of the coin.
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
1) I don't agree that in practice people always find a way forward (Iraq War? WW1? Suez!?). Through laziness, mendacity, simple stupidity or a legion of other reasons, people mess up and get things wrong. And it is irresponsible at this late stage to pretend otherwise.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.
I don't buy the "this or nothing" theory. It's not credible that if the deal is defeated then everyone gives up and we end up with food shortages etc. A second referendum, an election or a further negotiation are all possible consequences.
Corbyn has already made clear today he won't support a second referendum. A general election wouldn't clear enough time for further negotiation and get approval from all the parliaments. You are a hard leftist selling snake oil.
Nick is a very fair poster with quite a unique insight as to how the PLP and Parliament works. You won't change many minds here insulting him.
He is a die-hard Corbynite. How is it unreasonable to characterise that as "hard left"? And he IS selling snake oil. That isn't an insult. It's the reality.
No he ain't. He's a Party loyalist. He was a pretty mainstream MP under Blair. If your view is that he is wrong, then that is fair enough. But die-hard Corbynite. No. Anyway, he can speak for himself.
He’s said in his youth he was a Communist who trimmed under Blair but is happier withCorbyn. But he can speak for himself
I mean in the likely event it doesn't get through Parliament. Just reiterating that anyone who tries to say it is this deal or no deal is being disingenuous.
It is this deal (or something very like it). The EU have spent 2 years negotiating with us.
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
I think they would be happy to if it meant negotiating with a team not beholden to the DUP & ERG.
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
1) I don't agree that in practice people always find a way forward (Iraq War? WW1? Suez!?). Through laziness, mendacity, simple stupidity or a legion of other reasons, people mess up and get things wrong. And it is irresponsible at this late stage to pretend otherwise.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
If this Deal does not get through it will either be EURef2 and Remain or Corbyn PM in the not too distant future and a permanent, not temporary, Customs Union.
This is the best the Brexiteers will get, there is no majority in Parliament or with the voters for No Deal and the EU have made clear they will not offer a Canada style FTA for the whole UK.
Even May said for the first time today there could end up being No Brexit at all if her Deal was rejected
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
1) I don't agree that in practice people always find a way forward (Iraq War? WW1? Suez!?). Through laziness, mendacity, simple stupidity or a legion of other reasons, people mess up and get things wrong. And it is irresponsible at this late stage to pretend otherwise.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
I largely agree,
I can see that the EU might grant an extension, so the 134 days could be extended. -- though it is not really desirable for us to prolong the uncertainty much further.
What I can't see is the EU going through the charade of another set of negotiations with a new set of ministers. What is it, after all, the Labour party wants to change in the Deal?
I understand Nick wants to remain (so his position has a certain forlorn logic to it), but that is not the official position of his party.
What is it that Labour want to change in this deal that warrants a new renegotiation ?
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
1) I don't agree that in practice people always find a way forward (Iraq War? WW1? Suez!?). Through laziness, mendacity, simple stupidity or a legion of other reasons, people mess up and get things wrong. And it is irresponsible at this late stage to pretend otherwise.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
I largely agree,
I can see that the EU might grant an extension, so the 134 days could be extended. -- though it is not really desirable for us to prolong the uncertainty much further.
What I can't see is the EU going through the charade of another set of negotiations with a new set of ministers. What is it, after all, the Labour party wants to change in the Deal?
I understand Nick wants to remain (so his position has a certain forlorn logic to it), but that is not the official position of his party.
What is it that Labour want to change in this deal that warrants a new renegotiation ?
Politicians believe that things will be different if they were in charge, and that by passing laws they can change things. Neither belief is wholly true.
I don't think so. I think that No Deal can be largely discounted in the real world - I know that many have bought the idea, but then many bought the idea that an agreement wouldn't be reached at all, which I've consistently said would happen. In practice, people always find a way forward. I agree that Remain is unlikely, though as a Europhile I'm attracted to anything that makes it possible. I'm also attracted to an election. So it seems to me a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election. Both the latter seem preferable, so as an MP I'd probably vote No.
1) I don't agree that in practice people always find a way forward (Iraq War? WW1? Suez!?). Through laziness, mendacity, simple stupidity or a legion of other reasons, people mess up and get things wrong. And it is irresponsible at this late stage to pretend otherwise.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
If this Deal does not get through it will either be EURef2 and Remain or Corbyn PM in the not too distant future and a permanent, not temporary, Customs Union.
This is the best the Brexiteers will get, there is no majority in Parliament or with the voters for No Deal and the EU have made clear they will not offer a Canada style FTA for the whole UK.
Even May said for the first time today there could end up being No Brexit at all if her Deal was rejected
To be honest a deal which pleases no one is probably the best outcome now. No triumphalism from either side.
I think you'll find the vast majority of Remainer's are completely cock-a-hoop with this (I thought Kenneth Clarke MP was actually going to fall to his knees and kiss Theresa May's feet at PMQ's today)
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
Is this deal better than No Deal? Yes.
Could a better deal have been achieved if the UK had prepared for No Deal from the moment the referendum was held? Yes.
So the ' Transition ' is extendable ( once ) and for a variable length of time. And the decision on whether to and for how long has to be taken within just 15 months of Brexit Day. As ending a Status Quo Transition will be badged staying in the EU in all but name expect this all to kick off again the day after Brexit. The Backstop takes the Cliff Edge away but never the less there are key choices to be made quite quickly after Brexit Day and they will be fought over. Expect Brexit ( I now expect the term to be used in the present and future tenses even after Brexit Day ) to dominate politics for years yet.
If May has agreed that amendments can be voted on before the meaningful vote, it’s a masterstroke.
There is no way a second referendum will be voted for by the Commons BEFORE the deal has been voted on. Labour will not whip for it, and there won’t be enough Tory rebels. It’s perfect for both May and Corbyn; May because a second referendum will be terrible for her party, and Corbyn because he wants us to leave. May has made the calculation that once a second referendum is rejected, a majority of non-ERGers will vote for her deal. Corbyn is banking that they won’t.
The seven page summary on Future Relationship is hilarious. It could mean anything but is also brutal on how little if anything Bespoke will be available. It's the terms on which we'll be able to participate in EU programs as a third country if we wish mot new architecture. Again vast areas of policy debate is going to reignite the day after Brexit.
Interesting dynamic now between the FR and the backstop + extension. It's true that the later take away the cliff edge which could be said to strengthen the UK hand. We now have an alternative to signing a crap FR or going over the edge. But that cuts both ways. If it now takes a Canada style 7 years to negotiate the End State the EU can say to us " what's the rush. The backstop is permanent and you coukd have extended longer. "
There are going to be massive unresolved issues at the time of the 2022 General Election.
The Northern Ireland backstop to the backstop also appears to be self reinforcing. Northern Ireland's dual status in both the EU + UK single markets will attract investment. Investment that will then making removing that dual status very difficult. Now on the one hand that strengthens the union as you only get dual status by staying in the UK. On the other hand it further changes Northern Ireland's status as it beds in a way it's different from GB. From a governance point of view it's amusing that NI business will now lobby Dublin not London re the EU aspects of their legal framework.
And of course this will breed greivance. Any hint that X piece of investment moved from or didn't go to a GB Remain area but NI instead will be met inperpetuity with " why didn't we get special treatment " ?
That doesn't need to be a rational critique merely one folk will feel unfair.
It's also interesting how " certainity " will play out now. I suspect the dynamic will cut across Remain/Leave lines. In the short term ' Business ' will rally to May's Deal because it reduces variables. Good for Leavers. But if it passes ' Business ' will lobby immeadiately for using the extension and making it as long as possible because that reduces uncertainity. And once that's done they'll lobby for the End State to be as close to Transition as possible. Good for ex Remainers. I expect post Brexit Day campaigns for extension/deep End State staffed by ex Remainers to be very well funded. And the draining of corporate lobbying to Belgium to be quite painful to the Westminster class.
But the forces of continuity now may well rally round May's Deal for now then switch to Continuity Remain the day after Brexit.
The other hilarious thing is how utterly pointless this has all been. It's difficult to design an exact metric but if we estimated the level of euroscepticism in both ( a ) The Conservative Party ( b ) The UK public then who'll bet that it will be lower on ( c ) Brexit Day than ( d ) the day of the Bloomberg Speech ?
The Great Lie is/was that this would all settle the issue one way or another. It clearly hasn't and won't for years yet.
And of course this will breed greivance. Any hint that X piece of investment moved from or didn't go to a GB Remain area but NI instead will be met inperpetuity with " why didn't we get special treatment " ?
That doesn't need to be a rational critique merely one folk will feel unfair.
Just as well there aren’t any practiced grievance mongers in the devolved administrations then...
On the continent some of the early coverage appears positive. Le Figaro possibly assigns more power to May than most in the UK would, with the headline: “May imposes her Brexit agreement on her team.” Le Monde triumphantly carries May’s assessment of her cabinet success as a “decisive step” and calls it a success. Les Echos paints the weariest picture, referring to the pain May had to go through to get the support of her ministers.
In Germany, Der Spiegel feels May dodged a bullet. Die Zeit, Die Welt and Bild Zeitung focus on the cabinet success, something the Süddeutsche Zeitung refers to as an “important hurdle”.
The other hilarious thing is how utterly pointless this has all been. It's difficult to design an exact metric but if we estimated the level of euroscepticism in both ( a ) The Conservative Party ( b ) The UK public then who'll bet that it will be lower on ( c ) Brexit Day than ( d ) the day of the Bloomberg Speech ?
The Great Lie is/was that this would all settle the issue one way or another. It clearly hasn't and won't for years yet.
No, but at least it's a step in the right direction. The EU can now carry on with their integration without us constantly holding them back.
Trump has never been known for his diplomatic skills—berating Australia shortly after taking office in 2017 comes to mind—but that he couldn’t even hold it together to let May flatter him during a routine phone call suggests this “very stable genius” has become even more unglued.
Comments
If I were a Brexiteer, I know I'd take May's deal rather than make a big bet on a bad hand.
The Brexit outcome is secondary.
Lol. The war stories of the world’s most toothless rebels, yes.
Well quite.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-alcohol-no-drink-unilad-coconut-water-apple-juice-labour-leader-a7775461.html
Look no further than PB to see how ardent Remainers love this deal.
Slightly disturbing account of a very large and very recent impact crater:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/14/impact-crater-19-miles-wide-found-beneath-greenland-glacier
Night.
I thought Brexit was supposed to be for everyone, not just Tories.
Edit : I know it's just political rhetoric, and I know May is only meeting with Corbyn because her position is so desperate, but do MPs really believe it is betrayal to work with the other side sometimes? This whole Brexit issue has not been cross party enough, both sides have acted like it is an issue which can easily be put into left and right boxes, which it can't (even if remain/leave are more one side than the other, the various flavours of leave are far more complicated).
The winners have lost and the losers have won.
Theo's correct that I like Corbyn and think we needed someone like him to revive the purpose of Labour. I don't think I'm particularly "hard" anything, and if he'd been around here longer he'd probably have noticed that - I'm the counterpart to Sean Fear, who is right-wing and occasionally provokes but doesn't really pick on anyone. But anonymous critics, shrug anyway.
"This is worse than "NO DEAL".
Can't imagine why it slipped your mind..
After that, god only knows - I'm leaning second ref with Labour backing.
First thing he can do is send Olly Robbins off to Siberia.
This is still just blind assumptions that a specific path will definitely lead to positive outcome...somehow.
It's fine for an MP to make that choice, but with an actually available deal vs some mythical one which would be nebulously better in some way, it's one heck of a gamble. It's also the same thing Boris and co have been peddling, it's nice to see cross party support for a policy of 'it'll work out better next time, for sure'.
Good night all.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1062861211249852416
I think the hard limit is May, to be honest, because if we’re still in by then we’d have to have European elections....
The suggestion that there is a very different deal available is nonsense. Slight tweaks, maybe, but nothing very different.
I think the EU will make that plain. They're not going through all this again with a different set of UK politicians.
There were differing accounts as to the mood of the cabinet. Some declared it had been “quite positive” and “generally all reasonably polite and businesslike”. Others, though, claimed afterwards the mood was “worse than Chequers”. In the first hour, the balance between those in favour and those against “felt tight”. By the end, though “the lead in favour extended”.
Let's see how this moron gets on trying to shout down Corbyn and McDonnell when they take over next year.
Another one on a one way ticket to Siberia hopefully.
Though May will surely be tempted to remove the whip from the ERG rebels and may well do so
Colleagues were unimpressed, with one describing her as “aggressive” and another describing a “massive row” which “got really fruity” with the minister pushing her point more than once.
Ms McVey was then shut down by Julian Smith, the chief whip, and Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary.
Sir Mark “raised his voice” and “read out the cabinet manual to her” to remind her of the principles of collective cabinet responsibility. It is a moment some Brexiteers are unlikely to forget in a hurry.
There is a limit to how much time they can spend dealing with UK politicians who think a better deal is along the yellow brick road.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1062836248606314497
McVey is cut from the same cloth as all the others: all whine and no walk.
2) As for "a choice between a feeble deal, a possible Remain and a possible election.", it has to be pointed out that "a possible election" is synonymous with "no deal" since you do not have the time to organize it *and* a renegotiation in the 134 days we now have left.
3) Unless you think May can hold one without an Act of Parliament, you do not have the votes to hold a second referendum.
So when you say "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a possible Remain and c) a possible election", what that translates into is "a choice between a) a feeble deal, b) a second referendum which you can't hold, and c) something that will result in "no deal" due to time constraints"
In short, May is right. the options are this deal, no deal, or Remain, and I can't realistically see Remain happening. I understand that you believe otherwise but I do not share that belief.
This is the best the Brexiteers will get, there is no majority in Parliament or with the voters for No Deal and the EU have made clear they will not offer a Canada style FTA for the whole UK.
Even May said for the first time today there could end up being No Brexit at all if her Deal was rejected
I can see that the EU might grant an extension, so the 134 days could be extended. -- though it is not really desirable for us to prolong the uncertainty much further.
What I can't see is the EU going through the charade of another set of negotiations with a new set of ministers. What is it, after all, the Labour party wants to change in the Deal?
I understand Nick wants to remain (so his position has a certain forlorn logic to it), but that is not the official position of his party.
What is it that Labour want to change in this deal that warrants a new renegotiation ?
Could a better deal have been achieved if the UK had prepared for No Deal from the moment the referendum was held? Yes.
There is no way a second referendum will be voted for by the Commons BEFORE the deal has been voted on. Labour will not whip for it, and there won’t be enough Tory rebels. It’s perfect for both May and Corbyn; May because a second referendum will be terrible for her party, and Corbyn because he wants us to leave. May has made the calculation that once a second referendum is rejected, a majority of non-ERGers will vote for her deal. Corbyn is banking that they won’t.
Either way, there won’t be a second referendum.
Interesting dynamic now between the FR and the backstop + extension. It's true that the later take away the cliff edge which could be said to strengthen the UK hand. We now have an alternative to signing a crap FR or going over the edge. But that cuts both ways. If it now takes a Canada style 7 years to negotiate the End State the EU can say to us " what's the rush. The backstop is permanent and you coukd have extended longer. "
There are going to be massive unresolved issues at the time of the 2022 General Election.
But I suspect that the principle that votes are not taken in Cabinet was explained several times and McVey was insisting there was a vote.
And of course this will breed greivance. Any hint that X piece of investment moved from or didn't go to a GB Remain area but NI instead will be met inperpetuity with " why didn't we get special treatment " ?
That doesn't need to be a rational critique merely one folk will feel unfair.
FWIW my mentor who served in every Tory government between Chamberlain and Thatcher said that during that time he was involved in 3 major decisions.
In one there was no choice, in the second he had no influence, but he was definitely right in the third...!
But the forces of continuity now may well rally round May's Deal for now then switch to Continuity Remain the day after Brexit.
The Great Lie is/was that this would all settle the issue one way or another. It clearly hasn't and won't for years yet.
In Germany, Der Spiegel feels May dodged a bullet. Die Zeit, Die Welt and Bild Zeitung focus on the cabinet success, something the Süddeutsche Zeitung refers to as an “important hurdle”.
https://twitter.com/mediaguardian/status/1062896733145812992?s=20
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsAPePAXQAUlUOs.jpg:large
Trump has never been known for his diplomatic skills—berating Australia shortly after taking office in 2017 comes to mind—but that he couldn’t even hold it together to let May flatter him during a routine phone call suggests this “very stable genius” has become even more unglued.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/theresa-may-caught-trump-at-a-very-bad-time/amp?__twitter_impression=true
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1062811982645075972?s=20
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6386225/amp/Pilots-says-Boeing-didnt-disclose-jets-new-control-feature.html?ico=amp_articleRelated
While the Mail is hardly a paper of record the reporting of it should worry Boeing
I will do such things,—
What they are, yet I know not: but they shall be
The terrors of the earth.
Lear II, 4
And the Mail's reporting is pretty dire.