politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal
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Fudge was all we were going to get.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
May needs to deliver fudge otherwise Sturgeon delivers SindyRef2 this time with JK Rowling doing acerbic tweets in support of Indy.0 -
Dressed all in leather with armbands?eek said:I've been out for dinner with my parents - who have come up with what they think is the perfect question for any second referendum.
Do you wish to
a) Cancel Brexit
b) re-introduce hanging...0 -
20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstainCasino_Royale said:
I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
I think it will squeak past eventually.0 -
So if it takes 2 years to secure agreement to kick the can for 2 more years, the next 2 years will result in....Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.0 -
Finally people are actually focusing on the content of the deal. And it's a good one.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.0 -
Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw0
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I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.kyf_100 said:
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.viewcode said:D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.
It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.
Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
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CR's estimate is not far off mine so I think he is already assuming ~15 Labour votes in favourMortimer said:
20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstainCasino_Royale said:
I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
I think it will squeak past eventually.0 -
Similarly anyone who's saying FoM is dead.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
It ain't. On the day after Brexit Day next year... anyone from anywhere in the EU or EEA who could come here today could come here then. And stay. With exactly the same rights and privileges as today.
All the way until 2021 at least, and if they're here by then, their rights to live and work here are protected in perpetuity.
And, if we still haven't resolved things by then, we'll see an extension to the transition period (my kneejerk odds on that are better than even: both the EU and the UK Government love giving that can another kick.0 -
Does she want to lose this vote? I'm not sure encouraging the stop Brexit brigade is necessarily a good idea.williamglenn said:0 -
I can see why the ERG were trying to set the media narrative last night, they know the public will like this deal when they read it0
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Theresa May's final betrayal.williamglenn said:
Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.
Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?0 -
Tom Kibasi, IPPR
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#WithdrawalAgreement is very strong on preventing state aid but much weaker on workers' rights and environmental protections. The non-regression clauses are stronger than a typical Free Trade Agreement but far weaker than current EU requirements. Reflects Govt & EU priorities.0 -
Any hiccups anyone notices on how this joint committee responsible for application of the agreement is supposed to work?0
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The future relationship could mean rejoining. It’s very open. With Brexit delivered on 29 Mar, the referendum is satisfied, we are then free to rejoin at any point. Maybe give it a couple of weeks.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.0 -
Yes sorry I assumed that too. I think Nick’s estimate of 6 is way too low...TheWhiteRabbit said:
CR's estimate is not far off mine so I think he is already assuming ~15 Labour votes in favourMortimer said:
20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstainCasino_Royale said:
I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
I think it will squeak past eventually.0 -
In practical terms, there is no end to anything. Everything pretty much stays the same. But the symbolism is very important and, given the alternative, most folk will live with it - as this thread demonstrates.Theo said:
End to FoM, end to ECJ, end to CAP, end to CFP, end to service regulations. If that's symbolism, I'm a big fan. The nutcases on both Remain and Leave will be upset but the sensible eurosceptic middle shpuld be very happy. All those criticizingnthe deal can't even find anything specific to bash about it.SouthamObserver said:
The symbolism of leaving is so important. That and a bit of tinkering with FoM will satisfy most Leave voters, even though the loons will continue to howl.Alistair said:A lo, she lead them to BINO and they did meekly drink.
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Unless it is her endgame.....tlg86 said:
Does she want to lose this vote? I'm not sure encouraging the stop Brexit brigade is necessarily a good idea.williamglenn said:0 -
Not with Article 50 filedkle4 said:
You can have remain if you prefer.AmpfieldAndy said:
Best available deal or not, it has no advantages or merits. Immigration is unresolved; it says nothing about future trade and therefore leaves open whether we will still have to pay for trade but it does tie us to a common rule book over which we have no say and tells NI they don’t count.AlastairMeeks said:To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
Difficult to see how no deal could be worse.0 -
Typical sob story.williamglenn said:0 -
Yep that’s right.Andy_Cooke said:
Similarly anyone who's saying FoM is dead.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
It ain't. On the day after Brexit Day next year... anyone from anywhere in the EU or EEA who could come here today could come here then. And stay. With exactly the same rights and privileges as today.
All the way until 2021 at least, and if they're here by then, their rights to live and work here are protected in perpetuity.
And, if we still haven't resolved things by then, we'll see an extension to the transition period (my kneejerk odds on that are better than even: both the EU and the UK Government love giving that can another kick.
As welshowl said, the WA gives us the freedom to obtain freedom. I’d vote for it in a heartbeat.0 -
If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.glw said:
I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.kyf_100 said:
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.viewcode said:D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.
It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.
Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.
Edit: can you walk at a canter?0 -
kle4 said:
Perhaps we could be villeins instead?Alistair said:
Yes, incorrectly spelled Alistair is right. It is pretty much the best possible version of a shit sandwich. But the only actual options when this started, were No Deal, Remain or Vassal state.AlastairMeeks said:To be clear. The deal is shit. It’s the best available.It will ultimately pass. It will command no legitimacy.
With globalisation everyone is a vassal state to a greater or lesser extent..the argument is a nonsense...
Our trading interests obviously are best served with Europe....we never did the political stuff well, so May's deal is OK. I'd probably vote for it0 -
The next can-kick should be a lot easier. No need to get it through Parliament or anything. We sign up to this and the Joint Committee (chaired by one UK Minister and one EU Commissioner) can make the decision to extend it (My copy says "until December 20XX"; do we know what the XX bit refers to, or does it mean either it's not yet decided or the Joint Committee can decide as long as it's before the end of the century?) and that's binding on both the EU and UK.kle4 said:
So if it takes 2 years to secure agreement to kick the can for 2 more years, the next 2 years will result in....Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.0 -
Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
Bizarre. Cameron wasn’t negotiating to leave the EU.welshowl said:
If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.glw said:
I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.kyf_100 said:
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.viewcode said:D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.
It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.
Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.0 -
If it happens it happens now - 10 o clock news timeTheWhiteRabbit said:Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw
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I don't think there was any outcome which work out well for them, they are too split.GIN1138 said:
Theresa May's final betrayal.williamglenn said:
Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.
Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
I also don't see why there is a need to get hysterical about May and co 'threatening' their colleagues and Brexit voters. If those count as threats then they have been on the receiving end of plenty themselves. Moreover, May is being accurate in saying remain is a risk to voting this down. It's not certain, and people will be perfectly principled to say no deal is better than a shit deal, but robust language is expected in political debate, as May's opponents use to their advantage all the time.0 -
How very EU.....keep voting until you get the result required!Mortimer said:
20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstainCasino_Royale said:
I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
I think it will squeak past eventually.0 -
0
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Can we see any DUP, LD or minor party break away support or abstention just to narrow another 3 or 4 more votes? Lamb perhaps?Mortimer said:
20-30 votes short means flipping 10-15 Labour MPs, or perhaps flipping 5 and encouraging 15+ to abstainCasino_Royale said:
I think May is 20-30 votes short at the moment.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
I expect it to fail. At least the first time.
I think it will squeak past eventually.0 -
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
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Do not weep like a woman for what you could not hold as a man.williamglenn said:0 -
This one is a corker
Article 167
The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.
Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?0 -
The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal0
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O/T
"Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html0 -
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
No to reform it. They weren’t remotely interested. If we had been offered no FOM, CAP, CFP, but CU with arbitrated opt out in 23.6.16. - Would’ve flown.williamglenn said:
Bizarre. Cameron wasn’t negotiating to leave the EU.welshowl said:
If Cameron had come back with this (or put another way if the EU had had the wit to take the UK’s severe disgruntlement seriously and offered it), it would’ve walked the Referendum at a canter.glw said:
I've long believed that not by design but simply due to the divided public and circumstances we'd end up with some sort of vaguely EEA-like arrangment. i.e. Close to the EU, free trade flowing, with a curtailment of free movement if not abolition, but no longer part of the EU.kyf_100 said:
I'm happy with the deal, for the reasons RoyalBlue gives. Ultimately for most people Brexit was about ending freedom of movement rather than more obscure points about sovereignty. If freedom of movement is over, we've taken back control over our borders, even if we haven't taken back control of everything.viewcode said:D'y'know, it's amazing. Our happy little band encompasses hard Remain to hard Leave, but everybody seems happy with this deal. It's only the f*****g politicians who seem to have a problem with it.
Importantly for me by agreeing a deal we're a) avoiding a cliff edge no deal Brexit that would cause enormous damage to the economy and b) firmly out of the superstate project, even if it seems like a BINO to some (remember how, two years ago, remainers told us that an EU army was a barmy leaver fantasy...)
If this deal goes through we're out. Rejoice.
Broadly I think that's what is on offer. Europhiles will not like it, and neither will the Europhobes, but the Euro-disgruntled (which is probably a significant majority of the public) will take it.
It might have been a good idea to offer this in the first place in a referendum, saving a whole load of arguing and unhappiness.
Of course the politicians may well bugger it up shortly.0 -
LOL Wait till the Brexiteers find out about that one....bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.glw said:I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.
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Will she offer him Foreign Sec or CotE?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
it has some meaning but largely it is just framing for obligations that are not absolute. So for example we can't agree to agree a replacement for the Irish protocol, so we have to agree to use good faith to get there.kle4 said:This one is a corker
Article 167
The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.
Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?
Under English law, we would not usually regard a party as needing good faith. Until 30 years ago it was almost unheard of.0 -
It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XXsolarflare said:
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
No I think it will stay. I think it just means it has to be extended by a number of whole years.Mortimer said:
It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XXsolarflare said:
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
There were attempts right from the beginning to imply, falsely, that only one type of Brexit would be true Brexit.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
That doesn't mean this deal is something which has to be supported by any Brexiter more stern than my own good self, it could be opposed for very principled reasons as not being good enough (despite the risk of remain as a result), but it was suggested a long time ago that given the closeness of the vote, a soft brexit was technically the closest to matching the pubic mood.0 -
Perhaps she needs some work done on her allotment ?Jonathan said:
Will she offer him Foreign Sec or CotE?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It won't turn out well for the Conservatives but I am more concerned about the future of the Country not a party that has been taken over by one issue lunatics. The trouble is a different sort of lunatic has taken Labour over. At one time parties used to vie on optimising the economy whether through the liberalisation of markets to harnessing the white heat of technology. Now we seem to have a race between the two parties infected with the proposition of who can screw the economy up the quickest and longest!GIN1138 said:
Theresa May's final betrayal.williamglenn said:
Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.
Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?0 -
Blimey.AndyJS said:O/T
"Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html
That is truly epic blackmail. Even the EU would blush at what's going on there.
0 -
Defence. Definitely. He knows so many soldiers of many countries - Palestine, Libya, Russia, Northern Ireland...Jonathan said:
Will she offer him Foreign Sec or CotE?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
context is everything, apparently there are only 400 of them and this is a personal disputeydoethur said:
Blimey.AndyJS said:O/T
"Entire Channel Island could be evacuated after power company vows to cut off electricity amid pay row"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/sark-power-electricity-power-supply-channel-islands-government-a8633556.html
That is truly epic blackmail. Even the EU would blush at what's going on there.0 -
Indeed - what a confused set of instructions we the public provided with this parliament!Andrew said:
I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.glw said:I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.0 -
The previous version had 2XXXMortimer said:
It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XXsolarflare said:
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 2099
0 -
THanksTheWhiteRabbit said:
it has some meaning but largely it is just framing for obligations that are not absolute. So for example we can't agree to agree a replacement for the Irish protocol, so we have to agree to use good faith to get there.kle4 said:This one is a corker
Article 167
The Union and the United Kingdom shall at all times endeavour to agree on the interpretation and application of this Agreement, and shall make every attempt, through cooperation and consultations, to arrive at a mutually satisfactory resolution of any matter that might affect its operation.
Also, does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning? Otherwise I'm not sure why it needs to be repeated so often within the document - if you don't include it are you permitted to do things in bad faith by default?
Under English law, we would not usually regard a party as needing good faith. Until 30 years ago it was almost unheard of.0 -
And that's the Truth.Jonathan said:
These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.
Now the rebels are Defenders of the Tory Manifesto, the Referendum Result, and they've got this Minority government's majority (the DUP) with them on a Point of Principle.
And just like John Smith, Corbyn isn't going to blink.
Looking good.0 -
Yes, this thing is predictably awful - a glorified delaying tactic that leaves it to some poor soul to sort out in the future. Its only selling point is that it’s not the nihilistic cliff edge. Those who led us down this miserable blind alley should cringe in shame.0
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Owen Jones straight out the blocks to condemn, so the headbanger wing of the Labour party will moan.currystar said:The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal
Plenty of Lab MPs in northern heartland Leave voting seats will have pause for thought.0 -
Sospiro del Moro?AlastairMeeks said:
Do not weep like a woman for what you could not hold as a man.williamglenn said:0 -
“Jeremy, I promise if you vote this through I’ll abolish the monarchy and change the national anthem to The Internationale...”Jonathan said:
Will she offer him Foreign Sec or CotE?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So what happens if this all gets through, and then the next election is won by a party promising to rip it all up and leave the CU anyway?0
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When I was in a maternity contract, they didn't want to put an end date on it because they didn't know when she would be back. So it officially ends on the 31st December 9999.TheWhiteRabbit said:
No I think it will stay. I think it just means it has to be extended by a number of whole years.Mortimer said:
It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XXsolarflare said:
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
To be stabbed from the front with a hot knife, accused of putting a suicide vest on Britain. Plenty of nastiness from both sides overall.kle4 said:
I don't think there was any outcome which work out well for them, they are too split.GIN1138 said:
Theresa May's final betrayal.williamglenn said:
Threatening her own colleagues and Brexit voters.
Why on earth do people here think this is going to turn out well for for the Conservatives?
I also don't see why there is a need to get hysterical about May and co 'threatening' their colleagues and Brexit voters. If those count as threats then they have been on the receiving end of plenty themselves. Moreover, May is being accurate in saying remain is a risk to voting this down. It's not certain, and people will be perfectly principled to say no deal is better than a shit deal, but robust language is expected in political debate, as May's opponents use to their advantage all the time.0 -
The price of a deal is the collapse of the government as far as I can see, since it requires masses of Labour votes, and as a result the ERG lot and the DUP will paralyze government and there will be no option but to have a GE in 2019, which Corbyn will win.shiney2 said:
And that's the Truth.Jonathan said:
These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.
On that basis Corbyn should give a nod and a wink to enough Labour people to get it through, frankly.
0 -
Really? You think...Mortimer said:
It’s a draft, it’s not going to stay as 20XXsolarflare said:
That would be Olympic-level can kicking!bigjohnowls said:Evolve Politics
@evolvepolitics
1h1 hour ago
More
Hidden away on page 207 of the draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is the astonishing revelation that Theresa May and the Tories could legally keep Britain in the EU until:
31st December 20990 -
Ambassador to Venezuela - you know that socialist paradise he used to bang on about - well, until they ran out of toilet paper and the women of the country turned to prostitution to try and put food on the table.Jonathan said:
Will she offer him Foreign Sec or CotE?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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If I've been able to read it all the way through by now, it's a bit worrying if Starmer can't. No wonder the CPS was a shambles on his watch.dixiedean said:
Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?currystar said:The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal
Radical idea I know...0 -
"No deal is better than a bad deal."
It's s simple sentence but it can be understood syntactically in two ways:
1. A bad deal is worse than no deal.
2. There is no deal better than a bad deal.
It seems that, perversely, Mrs May understands it as (2).0 -
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.
The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.0 -
Yep, good day to be a leaver.shiney2 said:
And that's the Truth.Jonathan said:
These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
This is more serious for the Tory party than Maastricht.
Now the rebels are Defenders of the Tory Manifesto, the Referendum Result, and they've got this Minority government's majority (the DUP) with them on a Point of Principle.
And just like John Smith, Corbyn isn't going to blink.
Looking good.0 -
Yes, as long as we actually leave the EU I will personally be satisified that the referendum has been honoured. Trade without a lot of the political/social stuff? Sign me up.Andrew said:
I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.glw said:I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.0 -
Don’t worry , we get a load of radioactive shite back.bigjohnowls said:The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.
The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.0 -
I knowJonathan said:
These Loons are Conservative votes in the HoC. The ones TM relies on to pass bills.SquareRoot said:The more the ERG loons scream about the deal, the more likely it is to pass thro the HOC. Loons look more like loons every day.
0 -
Those are the only good bits!?SandyRentool said:
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
Two weeks, maybe three, four max. Then back in.glw said:
Yes, as long as we actually leave the EU I will personally be satisified that the referendum has been honoured. Trade without a lot of the political/social stuff? Sign me up.Andrew said:
I never did understand those claiming special justification for whatever flavour of Brexit they imagined had been "supported" by the people. The referendum was just about leaving the EU. Nothing more.glw said:I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.
The people then had a further choice, at the election, of who to delegate the negotiation to. They gave us the parliament we have.0 -
As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.SandyRentool said:
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
Well, while he is sure to reject it, he is sensible enough to at least find the easiest bits to do so with.dixiedean said:
Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?currystar said:The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal
Radical idea I know...0 -
If this passes in the HoC, which is a big "if":
The Conservative Party remains riven on Brexit. The ERG tendency now have a living-memory grievance to seethe against. Cameron's pledge to stop the Tories "banging on about Europe" has failed.
They have also holed themselves under the waterline in terms of future support. They have identified themselves with a policy favoured only by the old. Never mind whether this is a soft or hard Brexit in reality, we live in an age of identity politics: internationalism is the identity of the young, Brave Britain Going It Alone is the identity of the old.
Fortunately for the Tories, the other parties (in England and Wales, at least) are beyond hopeless right now, so they live to fight another day. But if either Labour or the Lib Dems finally grow a pair, the Conservatives are in serious trouble.
The best result for Corbyn is if he whips a "no" but the bill passes by the narrowest of margins.0 -
It's an interesting quirk of the language that "nothing is worse than X" and "X is better than nothing" have very different connotations despite being logically equivalentgeoffw said:"No deal is better than a bad deal."
It's s simple sentence but it can be understood syntactically in two ways:
1. A bad deal is worse than no deal.
2. There is no deal better than a bad deal.
It seems that, perversely, Mrs May understands it as (2).0 -
I was brought up to understand that "good faith" means "to disclose all relevant information if asked" and "utmost good faith" means "to disclose all relevant information even if unasked" (I'm a statistician who works for an insurance company). However other posters on here use a different definition or simply as a vague insult.kle4 said:does 'in good faith' have a specific legal meaning?
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If you are MrsMay..Theo said:
Finally people are actually focusing on the content of the deal. And it's a good one.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
Nobody else.
Certainly not tory MPs.0 -
The safeguards bit of the NI protocol is a slightly more interesting read so far, on the basis the language itself seems more punchy.0
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I get you. It was a somewhat flippant response.ydoethur said:
If I've been able to read it all the way through by now, it's a bit worrying if Starmer can't. No wonder the CPS was a shambles on his watch.dixiedean said:
Maybe Starmer is reading the document in full?currystar said:The lack of comment tonight from Labour is interesting, I really think they will struggle to oppose this deal
Radical idea I know...
Labour has a decision to make here. To criticise them for not having made it within 3 hours of the text being released seemed a little churlish.
It took the Cabinet twice as long after all.0 -
My support for the single currency comes more from my position as a tourist than as a Socialist!ralphmalph said:
As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.SandyRentool said:
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.0 -
We should all go back and re-read these threads in 5 yrs time. So.much hype ...so much hysteria so much bullshit written..0
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Some Socialists are happy with EU membership.
+ves workers rights
-ves No state aid
I want us to leave.
I do not accept No Deal as an acceptable option0 -
My main takeaway from this deal is that it leaves the door to rejoining wide open. It could be done very quickly.0
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Isn't that and similar all good? The more of this there is the more the £39bn is actually for something tangible.bigjohnowls said:The Brexit withdrawal agreement states that the UK will have to reimburse the EU for vast amounts of equipment paid for by EU Euratom nuclear research and development funding.
The EU supplied £65m every year to the UK under this scheme.0
