politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party confere

HYUFD said:

Floater said:

Charles said:

Benpointer said:

Charles said:

Benpointer said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

So. How should individuals prepare for a No Deal Brexit?

- Replenish the larder
- No holidays abroad post 30/3/2019
- Move investments abroad or into non-sterling currencies
- Get bicycles into good working order.
- Get delivery of my new kitchen (from Dutch suppliers) well before March
- Plant winter veg
- Stock up on candles and cardigans
- Avoid Kent
- Prepare cutting remarks for any Tory canvassers knocking on my door

As an EU citizen do I get special priority for food / medicine parcels from the EU?

Anything I've missed?

Buy a blanket to hide your blushes when none of this proves necessary

... because No Deal won't happen, or because No Deal won't cause any issues?

Because any issues will be minor and transitory

I hope we never find out, but if we do I hope I am wrong and I'll be happy to acknowledge it in that case.

I look forward to you admitting the error of your judgement when No Deal proves to be a complete sh*tstorm - it will be a very small compensation.

Because the kind of outcomes posited by the more ludicrous Remainers would be tantamount to a declaration of war by the EU. Ain’t gonna happen

There really has been some utterly hysterical bollocks spouted on here and tbf in the media about what will happen.

Yes Faizal Islam - I am looking at you.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1051559785815044096?s=20

'A dream itself is but a shadow.’

Hamlet

Keir Starmer tells May to publish and be damned.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/15/keir-starmer-may-must-publish-irish-border-backstop-plan

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Stephen Nolan says he is deluded and the expert with him agreed

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

The suggestion by Nick Boles would be a very sensible compromise and positive step forward. Would also command broad support. Possibly too sensible....!

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

And UK citizens resident in Ireland can vote in Dail elections - but not Presidential elections or constitutional referendums. Shocked know it all Stephen Nolan didn't know that!

The Irish are unique in being the only non Commonwealth nationals who can vote in UK elections - and arguably as no Commonwealth nations have a reciprocal arrangement should be the only foreign nationals who can vote in UK general elections. Why should Indian or Aussie or Nigerian nationals be able to vote in all UK elections when we cannot vote in theirs?

I am surprised though that no one has picked up on Bridgen's actual mistake. He claimed under the common travel area UK citizens moving to Ireland can get an Irish passport - which is of course rubbish as if that was the case millions would be moving across the Irish sea come 29 March! Brits resident in Ireland can apply for citizenship after 5 years of residency - like anyone else.

So Bridgen had a shunt if not a car crash.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

I pasted the wrong link. See the second paragraph of this https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

Well the programme and the Irish experts are continuing to take Bridgen apart for suggesting someone living in Ireland can vote in English elections

I better warn my Irish mother - she has voted in every UK general election since 1964! I hope she doesn't get arrested for breaking the law!

SeanT said:

The EU has calamitously overplayed its hand.

TMay is now cornered.

3 possibilities:

1. 2nd referendum (which I think Leave would probably win)
2. A GE, which quite probably changes nothing re Brexit
3. No Deal

1 We disagree .
2 Who knows ? Owt could happen .
3 Would be bad.

As for EU overplaying their hand...IF I am right 1 would be good for them. 3 bad for them worse for us.
2 will be what they want to avoid at all costs .

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

"Experts"....

Irish experts on Ireland

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

"Experts"....

The Irish very nicely held a referendum in 1984 to amend their constitution to allow foreign nationals to vote in Irish general elections - explicitly to grant British nationals resident there the right to vote as this was extended by statute to Brits and only Brits. It passed with 75% of the vote.

The Irish resident in Britain have had the right to vote here in general elections since the 1949 Ireland act which recognised the Irish republic's creation and it leaving the Commonwealth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninth_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

I pasted the wrong link. See the second paragraph of this https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

Well the programme and the Irish experts are continuing to take Bridgen apart for suggesting someone living in Ireland can vote in English elections

Irish citizens living in the UK can vote in UK elections, and indeed could vote in the recent EU referendum.
UK citizens living in the republic can vote in Ireland elections, except for Presidential elections.
However Irish citizens living in the republic cannot vote in UK elections, and UK citizens living in the UK cannot vote in Ireland elections.
I don't know what the rules are for people with homes in both places.

SeanT said:

dixiedean said:

SeanT said:

The EU has calamitously overplayed its hand.

TMay is now cornered.

3 possibilities:

1. 2nd referendum (which I think Leave would probably win)
2. A GE, which quite probably changes nothing re Brexit
3. No Deal

1 We disagree .
2 Who knows ? Owt could happen .
3 Would be bad.

As for EU overplaying their hand...IF I am right 1 would be good. 3 bad for them worse for us.
2 will be what they want to avoid .

We don't disagree that much, I am not certain Leave would win a referendum: for one thing Leaver mights boycott the whole thing, ensuring a Remain win (if that is the choice), but also ensuring an even bigger mess. Could we really Remain on a much smaller mandate?!

2. Agreed. But my hunch is Corbyn is still so offputting (and TMay would get a sympathy vote) we'd either see a repeat of 2017, or maybe a small increase in Tory seats. #

3. Is increasingly likely.

3 is also increasingly tempting. Just take the big hit, go down, and recover. Like an addict that has to hit rock bottom, pissing himself in some grotty stairwell, before going into rehab, then regaining a life.

It would be hard on all of us, but it's arguably the most likely way for the UK to survive intact and we'd soon develop an Us v Them attitude, and we'd be forced to look out for ourselves. We'd have to shape up.

The EU can go fuck itself with a frozen pig's cock,

3 Means it is 50 50 Scotland votes for independence, highly likely Northern Ireland votes for a United Ireland and leads to divisions with Protestants and it also crashes the economy.

3 is also the only realistic route for Remainers to reverse Brexit as almost every poll shows voters would rather Remain than accept No Deal

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

I pasted the wrong link. See the second paragraph of this https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

Well the programme and the Irish experts are continuing to take Bridgen apart for suggesting someone living in Ireland can vote in English elections

Irish citizens living in the UK can vote in UK elections, and indeed could vote in the recent EU referendum.
UK citizens living in the republic can vote in Ireland elections, except for Presidential elections.
However Irish citizens living in the republic cannot vote in UK elections, and UK citizens living in the UK cannot vote in Ireland elections.
I don't know what the rules are for people with homes in both places.

You vote in the country you are ordinarily resident in - it has nothing to do with owning property.

Ordinarily resident has the same definition as here i.e. you live there in on a lawful, voluntary and properly settled basis for the time being.

Under the Irish electoral rules you can only register on the electoral register to vote in the subsequent year if you were ordinarily resident on 1 September in the previous year.

SeanT said:

dixiedean said:

SeanT said:

The EU has calamitously overplayed its hand.

TMay is now cornered.

3 possibilities:

1. 2nd referendum (which I think Leave would probably win)
2. A GE, which quite probably changes nothing re Brexit
3. No Deal

1 We disagree .
2 Who knows ? Owt could happen .
3 Would be bad.

As for EU overplaying their hand...IF I am right 1 would be good. 3 bad for them worse for us.
2 will be what they want to avoid .

We don't disagree that much, I am not certain Leave would win a referendum: for one thing Leaver mights boycott the whole thing, ensuring a Remain win (if that is the choice), but also ensuring an even bigger mess. Could we really Remain on a much smaller mandate?!

2. Agreed. But my hunch is Corbyn is still so offputting (and TMay would get a sympathy vote) we'd either see a repeat of 2017, or maybe a small increase in Tory seats. #

3. Is increasingly likely.

3 is also increasingly tempting. Just take the big hit, go down, and recover. Like an addict that has to hit rock bottom, pissing himself in some grotty stairwell, before going into rehab, then regaining a life.

It would be hard on all of us, but it's arguably the most likely way for the UK to survive intact and we'd soon develop an Us v Them attitude, and we'd be forced to look out for ourselves. We'd have to shape up.

The EU can go fuck itself with a frozen pig's cock,

On 1 I reckon marginal turnout would benefit Remain.
2 I did say owt could happen .A Tory majority is one possibility among a few.
3 As a Remainer and Labour voter, I am increasingly leaning that way. Except that it is anti-Europe free market fundamentalism which we will need to wean off.

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

dixiedean said:

SeanT said:

The EU has calamitously overplayed its hand.

TMay is now cornered.

3 possibilities:

1. 2nd referendum (which I think Leave would probably win)
2. A GE, which quite probably changes nothing re Brexit
3. No Deal

1 We disagree .
2 Who knows ? Owt could happen .
3 Would be bad.

As for EU overplaying their hand...IF I am right 1 would be good. 3 bad for them worse for us.
2 will be what they want to avoid .

We don't disagree that much, I am not certain Leave would win a referendum: for one thing Leaver mights boycott the whole thing, ensuring a Remain win (if that is the choice), but also ensuring an even bigger mess. Could we really Remain on a much smaller mandate?!

2. Agreed. But my hunch is Corbyn is still so offputting (and TMay would get a sympathy vote) we'd either see a repeat of 2017, or maybe a small increase in Tory seats. #

3. Is increasingly likely.

3 is also increasingly tempting. Just take the big hit, go down, and recover. Like an addict that has to hit rock bottom, pissing himself in some grotty stairwell, before going into rehab, then regaining a life.

It would be hard on all of us, but it's arguably the most likely way for the UK to survive intact and we'd soon develop an Us v Them attitude, and we'd be forced to look out for ourselves. We'd have to shape up.

The EU can go fuck itself with a frozen pig's cock,

3 Means it is 50 50 Scotland votes for independence, highly likely Northern Ireland votes for a United Ireland and leads to divisions with Prorestants and it also crashes the economy.

3 is also the only realistic route for Remainers to reverse Brexit as almost every poll shows voters would rather Remain than accept No Deal

You think Scotland would vote to leave the UK Single Market (far more important than the EU to the Scottish economy)? They may want to, but would they? Who knows.

Likewise Ulster. No one knows.

No Deal is a roll of the dice for everyone. It may be the only way to settle this.

52% of Scots would vote Yes to independence if No Deal according to Survation

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16966029.poll-50-of-scots-would-vote-for-independence-after-brexit/

56% of Northern Irish would vote to Leave the UK if a hard border with the Republic

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/brexit-would-boost-support-for-united-ireland-poll-finds-1.3616129?mode=amp

UK wide voters would vote 55% to 45% for Remain over No Deal anyway

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

These are the 29 toss-up districts according to RCP. The Democrats need 13 of them to take control, the GOP 17 to keep control according to the site.

CA10 CA25 CA39
CA45 CA48 FL26
FL27 IA3 IL6
IL12 KS2 KS3
KY6 ME2 MI8
NC9 NJ3 NJ7
NJ11 NM2 NY19
NY22 PA1 TX7
TX32 UT4 VA5
VA7 WA8

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1051618018172784640

Do they mean we will be leaving early - in weeks - with no deal. Or the plans need to be ready and start being implemented within weeks? I assume the latter - although one should ask why they aren't ready to go now?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Absolute car crash by Andrew Bridgen on Stephen Nolan on 5 live

He was completely taken apart and actually said citizens of the Irish Republic can vote in UK elections

He rang off and is being torn apart

So embarrassing - and this is the level of understanding of one of the hardest brexiteers

Irish citizens can vote in UK elections.

Edit to add: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_nationality_law_and_the_Republic_of_Ireland

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

I pasted the wrong link. See the second paragraph of this https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

Well the programme and the Irish experts are continuing to take Bridgen apart for suggesting someone living in Ireland can vote in English elections

Irish citizens living in the UK can vote in UK elections, and indeed could vote in the recent EU referendum.
UK citizens living in the republic can vote in Ireland elections, except for Presidential elections.
However Irish citizens living in the republic cannot vote in UK elections, and UK citizens living in the UK cannot vote in Ireland elections.
I don't know what the rules are for people with homes in both places.

And Bridgen said exactly your wording in the third sentence but could, not cannot - got into a complete mess, and rang off

Did he - I was listening and as I recollect it he said Brits moving to Ireland could vote in Irish elections which is correct. The discussion was about rights when Brits moved to Ireland and vice versa re the common travel area. The rain was heavy in the car - but that is my recollection.

His mistake immediately prior to that was claiming Brits moving to Ireland would automatically be granted an Irish passport - which of course is nonsense! That was the howler - why is no one picking up on that?

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1051618018172784640

So the negotiations might collapse utterly. I don’t think that will lead to a wave of pro-European sentiment; quite the reverse.

I have no idea how a second referendum would go.

Remain would win it if the alternative is No Deal in a referendum before Brexit Day

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

The EU has calamitously overplayed its hand.

TMay is now cornered.

3 possibilities:

1. 2nd referendum (which I think Leave would probably win)
2. A GE, which quite probably changes nothing re Brexit
3. No Deal

3 Leads to 1 inevitably anyway (except against No Deal Remain would almost certainly win by about 55% to 45%
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7.)

The only option to save Brexit otherwise would be EFTA and the Norway option.

2 May lead to Corbyn as PM of a minority government in which case it would be largely BINO Brexit anyway except unlike May he would have the votes for it

Again, there is NO time for a second referendum

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051558166322925569
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1051546243082674177

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience. This behavior of talking about the EU instead of to the EU has been a characteristic of the UK since negotiations started, and it will presumably end the same way the others did.

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience.

You don't think people in the EU read English?

Funny that, there was a lot of discussion here yesterday of a German language report in a German newspaper, and I though we were supposed to be the incurious isolationists?

brendan16 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Well the experts are taking him apart and say it was total ignorance

I pasted the wrong link. See the second paragraph of this https://www.gov.uk/elections-in-the-uk

Well the programme and the Irish experts are continuing to take Bridgen apart for suggesting someone living in Ireland can vote in English elections

Irish citizens living in the UK can vote in UK elections, and indeed could vote in the recent EU referendum.
UK citizens living in the republic can vote in Ireland elections, except for Presidential elections.
However Irish citizens living in the republic cannot vote in UK elections, and UK citizens living in the UK cannot vote in Ireland elections.
I don't know what the rules are for people with homes in both places.

And Bridgen said exactly your wording in the third sentence but could, not cannot - got into a complete mess, and rang off

Did he - I was listening and as I recollect it he said Brits moving to Ireland could vote in Irish elections which is correct. The discussion was about rights when Brits moved to Ireland and vice versa re the common travel area. The rain was heavy in the car - but that is my recollection.

His mistake immediately prior to that was claiming Brits moving to Ireland would automatically be granted an Irish passport - which of course is nonsense! That was the howler - why is no one picking up on that?

Irish citizens moving to the UK are deemed “settled” in the UK upon arrival (other EU citizens have to exercise their treaty rights to live in the UK for five years before they can apply for “settled” status). This is because of the wording of the Ireland Act 1949 which states that Ireland is not to treated as a foreign country. It’s also the reason why Irish citizens resident in the UK may vote in all UK elections and referenda. Irish citizens living in the UK still have to wait five years as “settled” before applying for British citizenship, if they don’t already have it from birth.

On the Irish side, I don’t know the full ins and outs of their legislation, but it’s pretty reciprocal in practice except that only Irish citizens may vote in their Presidential elections and constitutional referenda. IIRC after five years’ residence in the Republic British citizens can apply for Irish citizenship and I think it may only be three years if married to an Irish citizen.

ETA that British citizens born in NI are regarded by Irish law as automatically Irish citizens from birth, as are the children of all Irish-born Irish citizens.

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience.

51% of EU adult citizens have some understanding of English.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union

CarlottaVance said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience.

You don't think people in the EU read English?

Funny that, there was a lot of discussion here yesterday of a German language report in a German newspaper, and I though we were supposed to be the incurious isolationists?

I assume some people in the EU can read English
I assume some people in the EU do read English
But I think in the everyday course of events most read their own language in their own papers.

Pop into a bookshop (not an airport bookshop!) next time you're in Foreign. You'll see what I mean. Even our esteemed @SeanT has to get his books translated into German before the Germans will buy it ("Das autor de 'Der Kinder Eis'")

rcs1000 said:

@Brendan16

If I recall correctly, out of the 53 countries in the Commonwealth, 8 or 9 allow British citizens to vote in their elections. And they're mostly super small Caribbean nations.

Noted - but most of those nations like Jamaica and Antigua and Grenada and Dominica do not allow you to exercise that right if you 'have allegiance to a foreign state' (if you are a UK citizen you surely have that), or don't allow you to vote for the national assembly (Belize and Guyana) or like Barbados and Mauritius require 2 or 3 years residency. So its not unlimited - and you need to have permanent residency to live and work there which means few Brits would ever qualify as tourists can only stay for 90 days.

None allow residency as of right to Brits and the unrestricted right to vote in general elections as of right.

So I accept the point and apologise for my error!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_foreigners_to_vote

RobD said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience.

You don't think people in the EU read English?

Funny that, there was a lot of discussion here yesterday of a German language report in a German newspaper, and I though we were supposed to be the incurious isolationists?

I assume some people in the EU can read English
I assume some people in the EU do read English
But I think in the everyday course of events most read their own language in their own papers.

Pop into a bookshop (not an airport bookshop!) next time you're in Foreign. You'll see what I mean. Even our esteemed @SeanT has to get his books translated into German before the Germans will buy it ("Das autor de 'Der Kinder Eis'")

The Times should be writing a German edition?

If they want to reach a German audience, then yes. How else would you do it?

brendan16 said:

rcs1000 said:

@Brendan16

If I recall correctly, out of the 53 countries in the Commonwealth, 8 or 9 allow British citizens to vote in their elections. And they're mostly super small Caribbean nations.

Noted - but most of those nations like Jamaica and Antigua and Grenada and Dominica do not allow you to exercise that right if you 'have allegiance to a foreign state' (if you are a UK citizen you surely have that), or don't allow you to vote for the national assembly (Belize and Guyana) or like Barbados and Mauritius require 2 or 3 years residency. So its not unlimited - and you need to have permanent residency to live and work there which means few Brits would ever qualify as tourists can only stay for 90 days.

None allow residency as of right to Brits and the unrestricted right to vote in general elections as of right.

So I accept the point and apologise for my error!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_of_foreigners_to_vote

We have the slightly odd policy of not allowing - for example - Indians to easily come here. But if they do, they get the vote.

Personally, I am OK with us having reciprocal agreements with countries where we have strong historic ties. But the key word is reciprocal.

RealClearPolitics has the GOP on 201 seats excluding marginal districts. The New York Times is polling most of those marginal districts, and it is finding the GOP ahead in 12 of them, which would put them on 213 seats, just 5 short of a majority. There are plenty of other close districts which they haven't polled yet.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

The 12 the GOP are ahead in at the moment are as follows:

CA25, FL26, IL6, IL12, KY6, ME2, MI8, NC9, NJ7, TX7, TX32, VA7

viewcode said:

RobD said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Times leader:

The truth is that, in the end, only compromise can break the deadlock. British public opinion has not shifted enough to warrant a second referendum and the verdict of the first has to be respected. Mrs May has to understand that some parts of Chequers will not pass a vote in parliament. There is a deal to be done that is closer to the free-trade model of Canada, which could command wider support than her plan. Then it would be incumbent on the most ardent of Brexiteers to accept that some of what they wanted is preferable to none of what they wanted. Labour MPs should follow suit by voting for a deal rather than no deal.

None of this will be possible unless Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to do as he pledged and find a non-dramatic solution to the Irish border question. Without compromise from Brussels, Mrs May’s position is impossible.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/time-for-compromise-gxqrl6pps

You'll excuse me if I beat my head against the desk until it bleeds. The article is in the English language in a British newspaper aimed at an Anglophone audience.

You don't think people in the EU read English?

Funny that, there was a lot of discussion here yesterday of a German language report in a German newspaper, and I though we were supposed to be the incurious isolationists?

I assume some people in the EU can read English
I assume some people in the EU do read English
But I think in the everyday course of events most read their own language in their own papers.

Pop into a bookshop (not an airport bookshop!) next time you're in Foreign. You'll see what I mean. Even our esteemed @SeanT has to get his books translated into German before the Germans will buy it ("Das autor de 'Der Kinder Eis'")

The Times should be writing a German edition?

If they want to reach a German audience, then yes. How else would you do it?

Isn't it aimed at people who we can be pretty confident do understand English?

New thread...

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1051618018172784640

So the negotiations might collapse utterly. I don’t think that will lead to a wave of pro-European sentiment; quite the reverse.

I have no idea how a second referendum would go.

Remain would win it if the alternative is No Deal in a referendum before Brexit Day

I am really not sure. Nor are you. And what if Leavers boycott en masse, like Catalunya? Then the referendum means nothing.

Of course it means something and if Leavers boycott tough