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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

This Paddy Power market is essentially a bet on Mrs May getting a deal done and passed in the Commons. Iff she manages to achieve those two things then I’d expect Mrs May and the Tories to get a boost in the polls so ditching her straight away might not be possible.

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Philip_Thompson

If Raab goes to Brussels today, then declares no deal is regrettably currently possible he could be PM within a month.

kle4

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

Alistair

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

A deal makes concrete the quantum waveform of Brexit into which everyone has projected their own vision.

The chance of actual Brexit meeting peoples' fantasy Brexit is vanishingly slim.

I too see no boost for the Tories.

williamglenn

brendan16 said:

Foxy said:

williamglenn said:

I’m beginning to think the big second referendum announcement could be this week.

If so, May well prefer to announce it before rather than after the #peoplesvote rally next Saturday. She would look rather weak if announcing it the day after. Better to steal its thunder.

What is the question which would be asked - would she get a consensus on that among her own MPs let alone the Commons and Lords and perhaps also the electoral commission?

Ratify the deal, or revoke notification. The referendum question can be the same as last time.

tottenhamWC

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

Recidivist

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

Recidivist

Has this cropped up on here before? Andrea Leadsom predicting Brexit would be a disaster.

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1051162703430078465

Philip_Thompson

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

Although the consequences have been so overblown it's entirely possible to make no deal look well managed if the extreme cases don't happen.

kle4

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

GIN1138

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

Indeed. The British electorate doesn't "do" gratitude - Just ask Sir Winston...

Recidivist

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

Oh.

OldKingCole

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

kle4

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

GIN1138

Philip_Thompson said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

Although the consequences have been so overblown it's entirely possible to make no deal look well managed if the extreme cases don't happen.

We've been assured "No Deal" will be an event of such magnitude that life as we know it in this country will basically be over forever.

It will be like a combination of Zombie Apocalypse and the final minutes of The China Syndrome.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

OldKingCole

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

Thought ‘a generation’ normally mean 25 years...... the likely period between birth and reproduction for a human.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

It might... Although so could Labour after Corbyn becomes PM.

Both the main parties look to be on their last legs, kept on life support by FPTP and little else...

OldKingCole

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

TBH I doubt it; the Tories have proved able to come back after all sorts of disasters, although, this might be the exception.

John_M

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

I don't see any particular reason to grant the Tories another term. May is a mediocre technocrat. There's no vision, just a focus-grouped series of platitudes that could fall from the mouths of politicians of any stripe. My personal (granted, idiosyncratic) view is that two terms is enough for any political party. 8-10 years is sufficient to implement any necessary reforms, after which it's time to retreat to opposition to refresh and renew. More than any other in my lifetime, this administration looks tired and beaten down by events.

John_M

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

Thought ‘a generation’ normally mean 25 years...... the likely period between birth and reproduction for a human.

It could equally be Scottish Indyref generations - around a month.

tottenhamWC

I think the big extra difference this time around for the Tories is the impressive feat of turning a large proportion of (especially big) business against them, which is historically unprecedented.

Admittedly versus Corbyn they have nowhere else to go; but I don't think the f*** business comments will be forgotten and it will be felt in donations and perceived competence.

That's before no deal potentially then happens on their watch.

OldKingCole

John_M said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

Thought ‘a generation’ normally mean 25 years...... the likely period between birth and reproduction for a human.

It could equally be Scottish Indyref generations - around a month.

Those haggises.... they breed faster than rabbits!

Wulfrun_Phil

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

That's nothing, 1975-2016 felt much more like a generation, albeit a long one, ever since the last but one time we were given a choice on the false premise of being tied into a free trade area and nothing more. And look how that turned out. 2016-2018 already feels like a generation of foot dragging.

brendan16

GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

Indeed. The British electorate doesn't "do" gratitude - Just ask Sir Winston...

Cheer May on her 'deal' Vote Labour?!

As you say if there is a deal along the lines of what we expect a lot of people won't be happy with it including many if not most Tory activists and many Tory MPs. Its hardly a basis for a united campaign or inspired activist base. We know the deal is 's**t but Corbyn would be worse' is perhaps not that motivating for a lot of people in their 50s, 60s and 70s to go out in the dark cold and rain and snow in January or February in rural and semi rural areas to get out the vote.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1051435863845072896

DavidL

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In Scotland it apparently means about 4 years.

Verulamius

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

So a coupon election with [Conservative MP] as leader of a cross party group (United for Britain) with splinter Conservative candidates without the coupon?

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1051435863845072896

Bet those "up for Balls" celebrations in 2015 have left a sour taste in the mouth given how Andrea Jenkyns MP has turned out TSE?

brendan16

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In Scotland it apparently means about 4 years.

In the UK it means two years - as we seem to be moving to having general election votes every two years now. Who can say how long a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems will last if elected in GE 2019?

DavidL

If she is leader pending the declaration of the election of a new leader at the Conference would that be a yes or a no?

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1051435863845072896

Bet those "up for Balls" celebrations in 2015 have left a sour taste in the mouth given how Andrea Jenkyns MP has turned out TSE?

I'd sooner campaign for Mark Reckless than Andrea Jenkyns.

Still Balls losing allowed me to win money and do a PB thread header with the line 'Balls deep in trouble'.

DavidL

brendan16 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In Scotland it apparently means about 4 years.

In the UK it means two years - as we seem to be moving to having general election votes every two years now. Who can say how long a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems will last if elected in GE 2019?

2 years seems a reasonable enough guess.

Stark_Dawning

I suspect Theresa is royally screwed over Brexit. Whatever deal she secures (if any) does anyone seriously think that a howling chorus of Farage, Boris, Rees-Mogg and DD won't deride it as being absolutely bloody crap, with millions of others joining the onslaught? Everyone's just waiting to see Theresa put to the sword. It'll be bloody.

brendan16

DavidL said:

brendan16 said:

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In Scotland it apparently means about 4 years.

In the UK it means two years - as we seem to be moving to having general election votes every two years now. Who can say how long a Corbyn minority government backed by the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems will last if elected in GE 2019?

2 years seems a reasonable enough guess.

2 months might be more credible once they see McDonnell's first budget!!

Hammond of course has to get his budget passed first later this month - he is floating more pension tax relief cuts which won't please the core Tory vote and many MPs are not happy with it. This is all apparently to fund the NHS - but his cuts to the annual allowance and lifetime allowance have actually driven up to 3,000 experienced doctors with long service to retire early as its no longer worth their while to carry on working in the NHS. More money for the NHS - fewer doctors?

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477443972923394
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477586122035202
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477677977288706
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477987474984960

John_M

Stark_Dawning said:

I suspect Theresa is royally screwed over Brexit. Whatever deal she secures (if any) does anyone seriously think that a howling chorus of Farage, Boris, Rees-Mogg and DD won't deride it as being absolutely bloody crap, with millions of others joining the onslaught? Everyone's just waiting to see Theresa put to the sword. It'll be bloody.

Hyperbole. The likeliest consequence will be a Corbyn government and a mild recession (like we used to have in the olden days). We've been through worse.

Recidivist

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1051435863845072896

Bet those "up for Balls" celebrations in 2015 have left a sour taste in the mouth given how Andrea Jenkyns MP has turned out TSE?

I'm a terrible proof reader, but I have spotted -

- than rather than then
- sentence with no verb
- its instead of it's

Quite apart from it looking like an extract from Miss Prism's three volume novel of more than usual over-sentimentality.

hamiltonace

tottenhamWC said:

I think the big extra difference this time around for the Tories is the impressive feat of turning a large proportion of (especially big) business against them, which is historically unprecedented.

Admittedly versus Corbyn they have nowhere else to go; but I don't think the f*** business comments will be forgotten and it will be felt in donations and perceived competence.

That's before no deal potentially then happens on their watch.

The SNP picked a fight with business in the independence referendum and it has cost the country massively. The exodus of big business and especially manufacturing out of Scotland over the last 5 years has been hard to watch. My staff some of them who were gung ho about independence have had to learn to love our English and international customers who keep our plant going. The semi arrogance once shown now no longer exists.

Anyone who thinks that the Tories will get a Brexit bonus is kidding themselves. TM has it right the best hope is damage limitation.


I don't know about any other industries but a switch by a country to WTO in the medical arena has never occurred in the last 30 years during which time the regulations have grown from a few pages to massive tomes. This is entirely new ground where a new standard takes 5 years to write and get approval. No one has planned as it is a black swan event.

CarlottaVance

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In Scotland it apparently means about 4 years.

4 years...and counting......

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477443972923394
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477586122035202
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477677977288706
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477987474984960

Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.

brendan16

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

Linguist moves abroad to make use of his language skills. Is the Guardian going to run stories on everyone who decides to move abroad post Brexit? Good luck to him but I expect he would have gone anyway as why learn skills you don't use.

Still I hope he enjoys the 'safe political atmosphere' in Barcelona - at least we don't experience woman and old people getting beaten up by police when they try to vote!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEi7noGYisA

CarlottaVance

FT take:

Theresa May started her Brexit negotiation laying down clear red lines. She looks likely to be concluding a draft withdrawal agreement this week by straddling them all.

Neither breaking her promises nor fully adhering to them, the British prime minister’s compromises are designed to buy time and economic continuity, while holding out the prospect of her Brexit vision being fulfilled — one day.

So Britain looks to be leaving the customs union, but staying tied to it for a temporary period that may be hard to define. It is achieving legal independence, but still voluntarily applying rulings of EU judges. Most sensitively, it is agreeing to special treatment for Northern Ireland that could, as a last resort, create more legal barriers to trade within the UK.


https://www.ft.com/content/52e20306-cfa3-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

TheScreamingEagles

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477443972923394
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477586122035202
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477677977288706
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477987474984960

Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.

I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Think it's rained all day, so far.

tpfkar

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Surely the full Norway is better than that for our influence and unity?

We've spent so much time (rightly) fearing the consequences of no-deal that we've taken our eyes off quite how lousy an arrangement the 'deal' will be. No shame in any opposition MPs voting against this in the national interest.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/1051480707435024384?s=21

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

if he really wanted to make a positive contribution he would have moved to Wisbech and picked cabbages.

DavidL

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

if he really wanted to make a positive contribution he would have moved to Wisbech and picked cabbages.

And what about our unpicked fruit? Have you no conscience?

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1051481241030221830

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Think it's rained all day, so far.

We've got brilliant blue skies here. Went for a walk on the banks of the Tay. Beautiful autumn day with amazing colours in the trees.

John_M

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

if he really wanted to make a positive contribution he would have moved to Wisbech and picked cabbages.

And what about our unpicked fruit? Have you no conscience?

Under a Corbyn government, the fruit will pick itself.

brendan16

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1051481241030221830

Why didn't he invite Barnier round for Sunday lunch at his local pub in Surrey? Run Raabit Run - Barnier calls you run. Why does Barnier not come here for once - its only an hour on a plane?

Has he got his bodyguard with him in the back seat?

Recidivist

hamiltonace said:

tottenhamWC said:

I think the big extra difference this time around for the Tories is the impressive feat of turning a large proportion of (especially big) business against them, which is historically unprecedented.

Admittedly versus Corbyn they have nowhere else to go; but I don't think the f*** business comments will be forgotten and it will be felt in donations and perceived competence.

That's before no deal potentially then happens on their watch.

The SNP picked a fight with business in the independence referendum and it has cost the country massively. The exodus of big business and especially manufacturing out of Scotland over the last 5 years has been hard to watch. My staff some of them who were gung ho about independence have had to learn to love our English and international customers who keep our plant going. The semi arrogance once shown now no longer exists.

Anyone who thinks that the Tories will get a Brexit bonus is kidding themselves. TM has it right the best hope is damage limitation.


I don't know about any other industries but a switch by a country to WTO in the medical arena has never occurred in the last 30 years during which time the regulations have grown from a few pages to massive tomes. This is entirely new ground where a new standard takes 5 years to write and get approval. No one has planned as it is a black swan event.

I don't think we'd be out of the woods even if the big boys could go into work tomorrow morning and start planning based on an accurate set of information on what the regulatory environment is going to be next March. They've all got supply chains who need to move in lockstep. A customer of mine runs a couple of Class 9 clean rooms. Employs about 15 people but has around 300 customers including several big names we'd all recognise. They are in business doing the fiddly stuff that larger companies struggle to do. Will all their approvals still be valid in a few months time? Who knows. And does that affect stuff that is in their current pipeline?

Incidentally for anyone who still takes Daniel Hannan seriously, all their invoices are settled by UK legal entities. So these guys whose work goes all around the world and especially to Europe count as one of the 96% of small businesses that don't trade with the EU that he used to quote.

CarlottaVance

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

DavidL

John_M said:

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

if he really wanted to make a positive contribution he would have moved to Wisbech and picked cabbages.

And what about our unpicked fruit? Have you no conscience?

Under a Corbyn government, the fruit will pick itself.

Nah, the starving mobs from the City would do it for themselves, with the ex corporate bankers to the fore and the poor trampled underneath as always.

brendan16

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union. But at least Turkey can quit its customs arrangement at any time it wishes without the EU being able to say no.

So not so much a Turkey as worse than a turkey. But it could be the best a May can get.

stodge

Afternoon all

I find it inconceivable that May has agreed to the kind of deal Rothwell describes in his tweets. It might get through the Commons but it will destroy the Conservative Party (so it's got quite a lot going for it).

When I read the report on Reuters last night, I thought what SZ had was the agreed EU27 position which would be confirmed today. If so, it's a complete non-starter for the UK and the prospect of "no deal" grows closer.

TheScreamingEagles

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

kle4

stodge said:

Afternoon all

I find it inconceivable that May has agreed to the kind of deal Rothwell describes in his tweets. It might get through the Commons but it will destroy the Conservative Party (so it's got quite a lot going for it).

When I read the report on Reuters last night, I thought what SZ had was the agreed EU27 position which would be confirmed today. If so, it's a complete non-starter for the UK and the prospect of "no deal" grows closer.

I think she might be focusing on getting something through the Commons at all costs.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477443972923394
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477586122035202
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477677977288706
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477987474984960

Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.

I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.

In all honesty if she can get something agreed and through this parliament it will have been an incredible achievement. It might be a terrible agreement, but it would still be an impressive achievement.

Scott_P

kle4 said:

In all honesty if she can get something agreed and through this parliament it will have been an incredible achievement. It might be a terrible agreement, but it would still be an impressive achievement.

Not if all the other options are worse.

CarlottaVance

GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

Indeed. The British electorate doesn't "do" gratitude - Just ask Sir Winston...

The very best the Tories can hope for is absence of punishment. They received instructions from the voter, they carried them out to the best of their ability, why should they expect "gratitude' for doing the job they're well paid (three times average earnings and up) to do?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. P, it's an interesting linguistic debate. Akin to: was Honorius impressive for holding power for so long, given the era?

John_M

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Well, call me Pollyanna but if this means the end of Liam Fox's ministerial career, then it's an ill wind etc.

CarlottaVance

A reminder of our Continental neighbour's security abilities...

https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1051215390162980864

JohnO

TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.

brendan16

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Sorry - Turkey is in a customs union whereas we will be in the Customs union. But its still the closest parallel in terms of outside the EU, not in the single market, no FOM but in a customs union. What other nation of any size has that arrangement bar Turkey?

CarlottaVance

Miaow!

https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1051484708452884481

OldKingCole

CarlottaVance said:

GIN1138 said:

kle4 said:

Many people are expecting a boost for the Tories if a deal is agreed, but personally I don't think the public will show their gratitude. In the short term, given it will not be electoral consequences, I would expect the sullen to register their discontent and show a drop.

Indeed. The British electorate doesn't "do" gratitude - Just ask Sir Winston...

The very best the Tories can hope for is absence of punishment. They received instructions from the voter, they carried them out to the best of their ability, why should they expect "gratitude' for doing the job they're well paid (three times average earnings and up) to do?

IIRC (and I just about remember it) the electorate weren’t so much ungrateful to Winston as they remembered too well the pre-war activities of the motley crew that trailed along behind him.
And the remarks about the Gestapo didn’t go down too well, either, to people who’d experienced the efforts of such people as Herbert Morrison.

HYUFD

If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition

CarlottaVance

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Well, call me Pollyanna but if this means the end of Liam Fox's ministerial career, then it's an ill wind etc.

Why? He's spent the last two years not signing trade deals....why shouldn't he spend the next two years not signing trade deals?

John_M

CarlottaVance said:

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Well, call me Pollyanna but if this means the end of Liam Fox's ministerial career, then it's an ill wind etc.

Why? He's spent the last two years not signing trade deals....why shouldn't he spend the next two years not signing trade deals?

In a customs union, any old admin assistant can be busy not signing trade deals, it doesn't need a minister .

SouthamObserver

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

There will always be votes in the hard right English nationalism that the Tories will clearly move to once May has gone. She spent two wasted years trying to pander it. What a waste of time.

brendan16

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

One of Britain’s most celebrated young linguists, a master of 15 languages and author of two books, is quitting the UK, blaming “a dangerous political atmosphere” following the Brexit vote and “the financial brutality” of living and working here.

Rawlings, who is half Greek and retains a Greek passport, will move to Barcelona

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/14/top-linguist-quits-uk-over-brexit-bad-atmosphere

Nothing dangerous about the political atmosphere in Barcelona......or much 'financial brutality' in Greece....

if he really wanted to make a positive contribution he would have moved to Wisbech and picked cabbages.

No - the Guardian just thinks that is appropriate for talented linguists who speak English and Bulgarian or Romanian.

OldKingCole

HYUFD said:

If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition

If it REALLY goes pear-shaped we might be looking at a fragmented Tory Party, so the Leader of the largest Opposition Party was Ian Blackford!

Bit of a stretch, admittedly

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.

I am aware. I can see Raab being the great unifier as PM/leader by bringing across both Grieve and Davis.

Didn't Grieve and Green both feel honour bound in supporting Davis in 2005 because they persuaded him not to stand in 2003.

HYUFD

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

stodge

HYUFD said:

If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition

Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?

LordOfReason

Yes May remains leader. Having achieved a widely popular Brexit deal, she’s now unassailable.

The arguings all over. The deals done. It can get through the commons, and then easily endorsed by the people in a support it yes no ref next March.

Brexit means we are leaving EU but staying in the CU.

This whole thing was always going to come down to membership of the CU. CU not something Brussels invented and foistered on us, it’s something we helped create to protect our own interests.

And this was always the weakest argument of the Brexiteers, once isolated like this.
Hard Brexiteer says staying in CU means we can’t negotiate our own trade deals? Phooey. In the coming weeks You are about to be called out. Which are the trade deals you intend to rip up are so bad for Britain, and where’s your evidence you can replace them with even better ones? You don’t have the evidence, you don’t have an answer.

Also, the talk that May was under pressure over this, and wouldn’t lead her party into the next election against Corbyn, or that Labour could force a GE, all got a bit silly and tiresome too, so I’m glad that’s all over with by this weeks deal as well. May was always in box seat because her proposal was the British proposal, none of opposition party’s or factions came up with a proposal to convince us otherwise.

Lay down your wearsome tunes and endless what if fantasy politics, realities coming to town.

archer101au

Philip_Thompson said:

If Raab goes to Brussels today, then declares no deal is regrettably currently possible he could be PM within a month.

Agreed and predicted earlier. Alternatively, if he ends up being the person who has to explain away May's sellout I think we can file his chances alongside Phil Hammond.

SouthamObserver

We need a different voting system. If the Tories split maybe we’ll finally get one. In Spain they have a left, centre left, centre right and right party, plus various regional and nationalist groupings. To accurately represent views in the UK we need the same.

JohnO

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.

I am aware. I can see Raab being the great unifier as PM/leader by bringing across both Grieve and Davis.

Didn't Grieve and Green both feel honour bound in supporting Davis in 2005 because they persuaded him not to stand in 2003.

Didn't know that. Could well be, which would explain why Green in particular backed DD (and indeed was his media spokesman) rather than Cameron with whom he surely was far more ideologically sympathetic. Unlike Benn, we love personalities and sod the ishhooos.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

There will always be votes in the hard right English nationalism that the Tories will clearly move to once May has gone. She spent two wasted years trying to pander it. What a waste of time.

Do you think the 'hard right English nationalists'* will get into a fight with Corbyn's Labour over the anti-semitic vote?

*What was she thinking, reducing Stop & Search of ethnic minorities?

Foxy

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

It does seem challenging to sell a deal to the wider world when you cannot sell it to your own intimate colleagues.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Recidivist said:

tottenhamWC said:

Whoever is perceived as being ultimately responsible for owning "no deal" will go down in history.

And I fear not in a good way.

It may even lead to the Conservatives being out of power for a generation as they will have to face the consequences / fall-out most directly.

And people say there are no Brexit benefits.

The Tories were going to be out of power at some point anyway. If we make it to 2022 they will have been in power 12 years, being out of power for 10 or so after that would seem not that abnormal, Brexit or no. Honestly I don't think there's anything they can do to avoid being out of power for a generation, the only question is if that starts at the next election or the one after.

I think the suggester implied that they would be out of power until 2047 or so.

Which if I make to 2022 means I’ll never see another Tory PM.

TARGET!!!

When people say 'for a generation' it is pretty unclear what they could mean. But people probably regard 1997-2010 as the Tories being out for a generation, or 1979-1997 for Labour.

In my darker moods I often wonder if Brexit will do the Tory Party what World War One did to the Liberal Party.

There will always be votes in the hard right English nationalism that the Tories will clearly move to once May has gone. She spent two wasted years trying to pander it. What a waste of time.

Do you think the 'hard right English nationalists'* will get into a fight with Corbyn's Labour over the anti-semitic vote?

*What was she thinking, reducing Stop & Search of ethnic minorities?

Farage is clearly in the Corbyn camp, but my guess is that the Tory right will focus on other targets.

Alanbrooke

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

the last thing we need is yet more of Blairs failed polices

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1051489123180191752

Recidivist

LordOfReason said:

Yes May remains leader. Having achieved a widely popular Brexit deal, she’s now unassailable.

The arguings all over. The deals done. It can get through the commons, and then easily endorsed by the people in a support it yes no ref next March.

Brexit means we are leaving EU but staying in the CU.

This whole thing was always going to come down to membership of the CU. CU not something Brussels invented and foistered on us, it’s something we helped create to protect our own interests.

And this was always the weakest argument of the Brexiteers, once isolated like this.
Hard Brexiteer says staying in CU means we can’t negotiate our own trade deals? Phooey. In the coming weeks You are about to be called out. Which are the trade deals you intend to rip up are so bad for Britain, and where’s your evidence you can replace them with even better ones? You don’t have the evidence, you don’t have an answer.

Also, the talk that May was under pressure over this, and wouldn’t lead her party into the next election against Corbyn, or that Labour could force a GE, all got a bit silly and tiresome too, so I’m glad that’s all over with by this weeks deal as well. May was always in box seat because her proposal was the British proposal, none of opposition party’s or factions came up with a proposal to convince us otherwise.

Lay down your wearsome tunes and endless what if fantasy politics, realities coming to town.

Sounds about right. Throw in a purge of extreme Brexiters from the Conservative Party and it will all work out fine and the Tories will be set up for a decent majority in 2022.

Let's see if they are mad enough to throw it all away.

TheScreamingEagles

John_M said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Well, call me Pollyanna but if this means the end of Liam Fox's ministerial career, then it's an ill wind etc.

So this deal would force the disgraced national security risk to resign?

I see nothing but sunlit uplands with this deal.

archer101au

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477443972923394
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477586122035202
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477677977288706
https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1051477987474984960

Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.

I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.

What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.

Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.

Floater

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

the last thing we need is yet more of Blairs failed polices

Acting with a foreign entity against your country... what do they call that again

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

It does seem challenging to sell a deal to the wider world when you cannot sell it to your own intimate colleagues.

If May proposes a deal and it is not approved, then those who vote against it will own the subsequent No Deal and all its consequences. Labour needs to think on that as well as the Tory loons.

Alanbrooke

Floater said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

the last thing we need is yet more of Blairs failed polices

Acting with a foreign entity against your country... what do they call that again

Labour

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1051492530477588481?s=20

Morris_Dancer

F1: new Constructor market up.

Force India versus McLaren match bet. 1.57 for Force India, 2.3 for McLaren.

They're currently:
Force India - 43 points
McLaren - 58 points

But since Force India was taken over and had its points reduced to 0, McLaren has scored 6, and Force India 43. That's in five races. There are four remaining. Right now, McLaren look to be perhaps the slowest team of all. Renault have lost relative pace.

I don't like short odds bets. But Force India do look tempting.

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.

I am aware. I can see Raab being the great unifier as PM/leader by bringing across both Grieve and Davis.

Didn't Grieve and Green both feel honour bound in supporting Davis in 2005 because they persuaded him not to stand in 2003.

Didn't know that. Could well be, which would explain why Green in particular backed DD (and indeed was his media spokesman) rather than Cameron with whom he surely was far more ideologically sympathetic. Unlike Benn, we love personalities and sod the ishhooos.

I remember reading that a few Tory MPs after telling Davis not to stand in 2003 felt honour bound in backing David Davis even if they were more sympathetic to David Cameron.

I think a few backed David Davis in the first round and then switched to Cameron in the second round. I think Davis lost a net 5 between rounds.

Personally I think we should return to the men in grey suits choosing the leader.

Obviously the men in grey suits would be a four man group comprising yourself, David Herdson, Tissue Price, and my goodself.

John_M

Recidivist said:

LordOfReason said:

Yes May remains leader. Having achieved a widely popular Brexit deal, she’s now unassailable.

The arguings all over. The deals done. It can get through the commons, and then easily endorsed by the people in a support it yes no ref next March.

Brexit means we are leaving EU but staying in the CU.

This whole thing was always going to come down to membership of the CU. CU not something Brussels invented and foistered on us, it’s something we helped create to protect our own interests.

And this was always the weakest argument of the Brexiteers, once isolated like this.
Hard Brexiteer says staying in CU means we can’t negotiate our own trade deals? Phooey. In the coming weeks You are about to be called out. Which are the trade deals you intend to rip up are so bad for Britain, and where’s your evidence you can replace them with even better ones? You don’t have the evidence, you don’t have an answer.

Also, the talk that May was under pressure over this, and wouldn’t lead her party into the next election against Corbyn, or that Labour could force a GE, all got a bit silly and tiresome too, so I’m glad that’s all over with by this weeks deal as well. May was always in box seat because her proposal was the British proposal, none of opposition party’s or factions came up with a proposal to convince us otherwise.

Lay down your wearsome tunes and endless what if fantasy politics, realities coming to town.

Sounds about right. Throw in a purge of extreme Brexiters from the Conservative Party and it will all work out fine and the Tories will be set up for a decent majority in 2022.

Let's see if they are mad enough to throw it all away.

The problem for the Conservatives is their base is Eurosceptic and the membership are even more so. Of course, if you want the Tories to be out of power forever, then sure, it's all fantastic.

LordOfReason

TheScreamingEagles said:

brendan16 said:

CarlottaVance said:

tpfkar said:

If that really is the deal then it's Norway without any of the influence + a raging DUP.

Does it include freedom of movement? And I thought Norway didn't have any influence anyway?

No - its the Turkey deal. Not in single market, not in the EU, no FOM but in the customs union.

A customs union, not the customs union.

Explain the difference TSE. Is it the bottom of page 51 has slightly different punctuation so it’s now called A customs union not THE customs union. 🤓

How very similar to Labours renegotiation of terms of entry into Europe that was overwhelming endorsed by public in ‘75.

i luv fudge.
i luv fudge.

TheScreamingEagles

Floater said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

The Sunday Times reports the Cabinet is now split into 3 factions.

The 'Loyalist' camp is made up of Hammand, Clark and Gauke who would be happy to stay in both the Single Market and Customs Union and Brokenshire, Lewis, Bradley, Hinds and Wright who are personally loyal to May. Lidington is in both groups.


The second faction 'the Resistance' is made up of Hunt, Raab, Fox, Javid, Williamson, Gove and increasingly Hancock. They want an end date for the UK to stay in the Customs Union or a method to withdraw 'unilaterally' and if not a simpler free trade deal. David Mundell does not want any deal that undermines the Union.

The 'on the edge' group is made up of Mourdaunt, Leadsom and McVey who are closest to resigning if no fixed date to leave the Customs Union and who want Parliament to have the final say.


Davis, Boris, Hunt and Javid are being lined up as interim leaders if May goes.


Reports too Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair have been visiting Brussels and urging EU officials to keep pressing in the hope of forcing a second EU referendum.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-digs-in-her-heels-asbrexit-wobble-turns-into-stampede-5t2j2c57s

the last thing we need is yet more of Blairs failed polices

Acting with a foreign entity against your country... what do they call that again

They call that the Glorious Revolution, learn some history.