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CSU + FW + FDP comfortably over 50% on 52% combined. Abysmal result for the SPD falling behind both the Greens and the AfDAlanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion0 -
CSU polls ranged from 31-38 so this is somehwere in the middle , Could have been worse for them.JohnO said:
CSU doing a tad better than the polls predicted? Will FDP actually cross the 5% hurdle?Alanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion
FDP on a very tight line may not make it0 -
And for the ERG and DUP to reject it!grabcocque said:
I think we're past the point of pretending the British government is expected to have any real say in the withdrawal agreement.RobD said:
So this supposed deal hasn't even gone past the UK negotiators yet?CarlottaVance said:From the Politico article:
The diplomats who said a deal had been struck were cautious, and one expressed particular concerns about how the package would be received in the U.K.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-divorce-deal-reached/
Things are playing out the way they were always going to. A deal has been reached, all that remains is for somebody to inform the British what it will be.0 -
Shrivelled...LordOfReason said:
Is that why he lost, his support turned out to be smaller and softer than advertised?David_Evershed said:
Double Diamond beer drinkers both.LordOfReason said:
I’m not convinced both supporters are truly DD.CarlottaVance said:
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reult only works if poll is correct, if the dip below 5% the CSU comes up short and needs another partnerHYUFD said:
CSU + FW + FDP comfortably over 50% on 52% combined. Abysmal result for the SPD falling behind both the Greens and the AfDAlanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion0 -
You're failing to apply Hanlon's razor correctly. She's not malicious, just unusually incompetent.archer101au said:
I appeared here before the referendum.felix said:
Yes - not sure when he appeared regularly or indeed prolifically on here - maybe a little after the Bojo resignationSouthamObserver said:
Yep, like in Australia. Mr Archer believes anyone backing May’s deal is not a true patriot.CarlottaVance said:
"Blood & Soil" nationalists have been popping up in the strangest places.....Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening. He is also a pain in the ****
People are entitled to argue for soft Brexit, Remain, Norway, second referendum or whatever. However, if May has agreed with a foreign power for the potentially permanent economic partition of the UK, she is a traitor, and I absolutely hold the view that no patriot would support this.0 -
Yup - same in Spain - we may have discovered accidentally the true source of euroscepticism!rcs1000 said:
I think they use '.' for thousand separators too...kle4 said:
More relevantly, the germans show numbers as eg 3,5% rather than 3.5%, with commas? Madness.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.
1.000.000,000 -
It just does. I promise you I have no stake, investment, axe to grind or dog in this fight.SouthamObserver said:
Why? Sounds to me like you are trying to shut me down. It won’t work.Ishmael_Z said:
Going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it might look very slightly problematic, though.SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
And how do you know I am not posting from Papua New Guinea?0 -
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Green/AFD rise look to be mirroring the the SPd/CSU fallsSouthamObserver said:
The focus on the AfD in Germany seems to be obscuring an even bigger story: the rise of the Greens.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.0 -
Well Mr Dancer you are right about that - which is extremely rare for you. We didn't end up under foreign rule. But it was certainly a major change to our constitution brought about at gun point. As it happens the 1688 settlement - in particular the Bill of Rights - has been a great success, with an important caveat, and we are still living with the basic set up it created. We don't have a written constitution but the institutions that the Glorious Revolution set up have served just as well.
It didn't work out so well in Ireland though. There was plenty of bloodshed there and it set in train a chain of events which are still a problem to this day. Indeed we were talking about them on here just this morning. I know you are probably working on coding SolveTheIrishBorder 1.0 available for Mac and Windows right now, but in the absence of a technological solution we have a direct consequence of the Dutch invasion giving us headaches right now.
There are knotty problems like this all over Europe of course. We are only slightly out of the ordinary in having a salty barrier that minimises the number of invasions like William's. One of the great beauties of the EU is it has the capacity to offer a way out of centuries old animosities like the one in Ulster. We'd be mad to let it go.
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Of course it isn't serious, I just don't visit many German language sites so I don't know how they display numbers.viewcode said:
Is that a serious point (genuine question)? They've been doing that for decades.kle4 said:
More relevantly, the germans show numbers as eg 3,5% rather than 3.5%, with commas? Madness.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.0 -
All of the above, I am with them now.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's current geographical location tells you 'Blood & Soil' nationalists nothing about his circumstances. Perhaps he has family, property, investments or pensions in the UK and would be severely affected by an economic downturn. Do you know? If so, how?IanB2 said:
Easy to enjoy the luxury of absolutism when you are 10,000 miles away from the consequences.CarlottaVance said:
You've detected hitherto well disguised enthusiasm for Mrs May or any of her works in Mr Archer.....who tends to be a bit more absolutist than the pragmatic Mrs MaySouthamObserver said:
Mr Archer believes anyone backing May’s deal is not a true patriot.CarlottaVance said:
"Blood & Soil" nationalists have been popping up in the strangest places.....Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.0 -
With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.0 -
Older British chemists use that format sometimes - a nod to the days when the Germans virtually owned chemistry.kle4 said:
Of course it isn't serious, I just don't visit many German language sites so I don't know how they display numbers.viewcode said:
Is that a serious point (genuine question)? They've been doing that for decades.kle4 said:
More relevantly, the germans show numbers as eg 3,5% rather than 3.5%, with commas? Madness.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.0 -
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:0 -
So at what point, if any, does the government get informed of what deal has been agreed for them?
I mean the government clearly hasn't been involved in this agreement, but I presume we'll be told eventually what we've had agreed for us?0 -
The UK doesn't need free trade deals with South Korea, Canada, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, or Mexico. And even if we did, those countries will be lining up to offer us better deals than they offered the EU.LordOfReason said:
Which of the trade deals you intend to rip up are so bad for Britain, and where’s your evidence you can replace them with even better ones? You see the Brexiteers are now on defensive, and really do have to answer that question.archer101au said:
Don't worry, I spent most of the last thread asking him this and he wouldn't answer. But I don't think he understands what a customs union actually is - along with far too many on here they just think it is some 'halfway house' between Norway and Canada.stodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal. That is why agreeing this without a time limit is simply not an option.0 -
It isn't. It would be a direct violation of the GFA. There were some rumours that May was going to insist that the NI Assembly approve this; no idea how this could be practical.RobD said:
So? It's still removing NI from the UK-wide single market. I'm surprised such a move is consistent with the principles of democratic consent laid out in the GFA.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
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Would you say they'll be... the easiest deals ever?rcs1000 said:
The UK doesn't need free trade deals with South Korea, Canada, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, or Mexico. And even if we did, those countries will be lining up to offer us better deals than they offered the EU.LordOfReason said:
Which of the trade deals you intend to rip up are so bad for Britain, and where’s your evidence you can replace them with even better ones? You see the Brexiteers are now on defensive, and really do have to answer that question.archer101au said:
Don't worry, I spent most of the last thread asking him this and he wouldn't answer. But I don't think he understands what a customs union actually is - along with far too many on here they just think it is some 'halfway house' between Norway and Canada.stodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal. That is why agreeing this without a time limit is simply not an option.
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Perfect!! :-Darcher101au said:
I appeared here before the referendum.felix said:
Yes - not sure when he appeared regularly or indeed prolifically on here - maybe a little after the Bojo resignationSouthamObserver said:
Yep, like in Australia. Mr Archer believes anyone backing May’s deal is not a true patriot.CarlottaVance said:
"Blood & Soil" nationalists have been popping up in the strangest places.....Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening. He is also a pain in the ****
People are entitled to argue for soft Brexit, Remain, Norway, second referendum or whatever. However, if May has agreed with a foreign power for the potentially permanent economic partition of the UK, she is a traitor, and I absolutely hold the view that no patriot would support this.
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Yes, I think that's probably true.SouthamObserver said:
The focus on the AfD in Germany seems to be obscuring an even bigger story: the rise of the Greens.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.0 -
Although if the FDP don't make the cut...HYUFD said:
CSU + FW + FDP comfortably over 50% on 52% combined. Abysmal result for the SPD falling behind both the Greens and the AfDAlanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion0 -
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
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Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...0 -
Either that or you are posting at 3 in the morning.....archer101au said:
All of the above, I am with them now.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's current geographical location tells you 'Blood & Soil' nationalists nothing about his circumstances. Perhaps he has family, property, investments or pensions in the UK and would be severely affected by an economic downturn. Do you know? If so, how?IanB2 said:
Easy to enjoy the luxury of absolutism when you are 10,000 miles away from the consequences.CarlottaVance said:
You've detected hitherto well disguised enthusiasm for Mrs May or any of her works in Mr Archer.....who tends to be a bit more absolutist than the pragmatic Mrs MaySouthamObserver said:
Mr Archer believes anyone backing May’s deal is not a true patriot.CarlottaVance said:
"Blood & Soil" nationalists have been popping up in the strangest places.....Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.0 -
I for one hope that you're wearing a penis gourd.Ishmael_Z said:
It just does. I promise you I have no stake, investment, axe to grind or dog in this fight.SouthamObserver said:
Why? Sounds to me like you are trying to shut me down. It won’t work.Ishmael_Z said:
Going on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about it might look very slightly problematic, though.SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
And how do you know I am not posting from Papua New Guinea?0 -
It's amazing that we're 75% of the way through the Brexit negotiations and Brexiteers and Remainers are still wittering on about tariffs as if they haven't understood a single thing.archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
IT HAS NEVER BEEN ABOUT TARIFFS0 -
I would be interested to learn from Mr Archer whether he believes a No Deal Brexit would affect his job or living standards. I guess it is possible that some in Australia will be hit by a No Deal. Maybe he can confirm.CarlottaVance said:
Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...
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Although it is worth remembering that 5% is for Others and therefore won't make the cut. If the FDP fall short of 5% it that means the CSU + FW have 46.5% out of 90%, which means they have just made the 50% mark.Alanbrooke said:
reult only works if poll is correct, if the dip below 5% the CSU comes up short and needs another partnerHYUFD said:
CSU + FW + FDP comfortably over 50% on 52% combined. Abysmal result for the SPD falling behind both the Greens and the AfDAlanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion0 -
Constitutionally, the PM does not have the power to negotiate a treaty on her own - she is not the US President. So if she has negotiated without a mandate from the Cabinet or outside of the existing mandate, it would be a grave matter, even if she was able to get it approved later.kle4 said:
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:
This is seperate from her ability to pass the deal, which clearly she will not be able to do.0 -
Theresa "MAY" be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference
(I thank you!)0 -
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
A quick google shows a number of articles from 2017 on the subject of red lines, but those will practically be ancient history at this point.solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.0 -
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.0 -
So there would still be no tariffs between GB and NI then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Good summary. It is the Fermat’s theory of politics. Easy to state. Very very very difficult to solve.FF43 said:
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.0 -
Shouldn't you have confirmed that before repeatedly posting that it wouldn't?SouthamObserver said:
I would be interested to learn from Mr Archer whether he believes a No Deal Brexit would affect his job or living standards. I guess it is possible that some in Australia will be hit by a No Deal. Maybe he can confirm.CarlottaVance said:
Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...0 -
Then the AfD on 11% hold the balance of power as the Greens + SPD are only on 28.5% and the CSU alone are on 35%rcs1000 said:
Although if the FDP don't make the cut...HYUFD said:
CSU + FW + FDP comfortably over 50% on 52% combined. Abysmal result for the SPD falling behind both the Greens and the AfDAlanbrooke said:CSU - 35%
Grrens -19%
SPD - 9.5%
AfD - 11%
FW - 11.5%
FDP 5%
CSU get a kicking SPD heading for oblivion0 -
FF43 said:
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.
1) & 2) also subject to the GFA - unless there is consent0 -
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
rcs1000 said:
Yes, I think that's probably true.SouthamObserver said:
The focus on the AfD in Germany seems to be obscuring an even bigger story: the rise of the Greens.rcs1000 said:
That's a terrible, terrible result for the SPD, and a perhaps better than feared one for the CSU.Alanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
The FDP get to be on tenterhooks to see whether they make the 5% cut. And a very good result for the Greens. AfD performs reasonably well, but the CSU's (and FW's) innate conservatism makes it hard for them to make much more ground.
0 -
The executive has total monopoly over negotiating treaties, the only role parliament plays is ratification.archer101au said:
Constitutionally, the PM does not have the power to negotiate a treaty on her own - she is not the US President. So if she has negotiated without a mandate from the Cabinet or outside of the existing mandate, it would be a grave matter, even if she was able to get it approved later.kle4 said:
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:
This is seperate from her ability to pass the deal, which clearly she will not be able to do.0 -
And Busingen and GermanySouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
No tariffs + same standards = no border checksHYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs between GB and NI then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
No tariffs + different standards* = border checks.
* or even 'same' standards not subject to same rules (ie ECJ)0 -
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
It does not erect a border with tariffs between GB and NI as the whole UK will still be in the CU but ultimately you have to listen to what voters in NI want and as the poll I showed made clear a majority of voters in NI want to stay in the SM and CU and have no border in Ireland. As the poll also made clear not keeping NI in the SM and CU poses more of a threat to the Union than keeping NI in the SM and CURobD said:
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.CarlottaVance said:
Shouldn't you have confirmed that before repeatedly posting that it wouldn't?SouthamObserver said:
I would be interested to learn from Mr Archer whether he believes a No Deal Brexit would affect his job or living standards. I guess it is possible that some in Australia will be hit by a No Deal. Maybe he can confirm.CarlottaVance said:
Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What iwill not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...
0 -
I thought that Treaties were entirely covered by the Royal Prerogative and no Parliamentary ratification is legally required.RobD said:
The executive has total monopoly over negotiating treaties, the only role parliament plays is ratification.archer101au said:
Constitutionally, the PM does not have the power to negotiate a treaty on her own - she is not the US President. So if she has negotiated without a mandate from the Cabinet or outside of the existing mandate, it would be a grave matter, even if she was able to get it approved later.kle4 said:
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:
This is seperate from her ability to pass the deal, which clearly she will not be able to do.0 -
This.CarlottaVance said:
No tariffs + same standards = no border checksHYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs between GB and NI then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
No tariffs + different standards* = border checks.
* or even 'same' standards not subject to same rules (ie ECJ)0 -
Why on earth are people obsessing about the moronic rantings of someone who has clearly had too much Australian sun and couldn't give a 4X about the UK?CarlottaVance said:
Shouldn't you have confirmed that before repeatedly posting that it wouldn't?SouthamObserver said:
I would be interested to learn from Mr Archer whether he believes a No Deal Brexit would affect his job or living standards. I guess it is possible that some in Australia will be hit by a No Deal. Maybe he can confirm.CarlottaVance said:
Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:
Why shouldn’t I? I am merely stating a fact. Why would that be a problem? Observing someone has little to lose from a position they advocate is hardly an unusual event on here.Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...0 -
She won't. Most of the SCon MPs are mad Brexiters given that is their base in Scotland.David_Evershed said:BBC reports:
"Scottish Secretary David Mundell and Scots Tory leader Ruth Davidson say they will not accept Northern Ireland being treated differently."
May can not afford to lose the Scottish Conservative MP votes as well as the DUP MP votes.0 -
I’m not going to attack Archie simply because of location, he’s entitled to his views and his passion for the country wherever he is. As we all are.SouthamObserver said:
I would be interested to learn from Mr Archer whether he believes a No Deal Brexit would affect his job or living standards. I guess it is possible that some in Australia will be hit by a No Deal. Maybe he can confirm.CarlottaVance said:
Again. How do you know a 'No Deal Brexit' will not affect Mr Archer's job or living standards?SouthamObserver said:
No Deal Brexit that will not affect his job or living standards.Alanbrooke said:
do you do it with EiT ?SouthamObserver said:Alanbrooke said:
actually it appears you do otherwise why do you keep brining it up ?SouthamObserver said:
I am hoping to retire to the Dorset seaside. I have no problem in people commenting from anywhere.Alanbrooke said:
when you retire to Spain remember you cant comment anymoreSouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile over in Australia your job, your public services and your standard of living will be entirely unaffected by a No Deal outcome. Lucky you and your entirely cost-free patriotism.archer101au said:
What is extraordinary is that PB seems to be full of people who genuinely support the PM entering into an agreement that involves the separation of the UK by a foreign power. The determination to see the country humiliated just so that they can feel that Brexit will not happen absolutely sickens me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think Theresa is the finest Prime Minister this country has ever had it she pulls this off.Stark_Dawning said:
Extraordinary if true. That will be vassal state +++++++++++++++.TheScreamingEagles said:
Fortunately, there are real patriots who will stop this from happening.
Some 'globalists' are astonishingly parochial...
But
“Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal”
I genuinely want to know the evidence supporting that statement0 -
I think you need more Training on the jokes front. At this Junction, you Signally seem to have missed the idea. I hope you'll forgive me for Steaming into you, but I don't think I'm getting Carriage away.Sunil_Prasannan said:Theresa "MAY" be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference
(I thank you!)0 -
Also like Portugal and the Azores and Madeira, I think. Given that, it's hard to see why something similar for the UK would be treasonous.rcs1000 said:
And Busingen and GermanySouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
May I recommend Stravaigan on Gibson Street for dinner.JohnO said:
As it happens I shall be in Glasgow next weekend. I’m sure my informal ‘soundings’ will prove overwhelmingly positive.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't have any pure red shoes, I do have some red and white trainers.JohnO said:
Grey suits and red shoes, my dear fellow. And think of Dom in No.10. For sure, my own immediate elevation to the peerage, and your GCMG to follow after a decent but not protracted period.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember reading that a few Tory MPs after telling Davis not to stand in 2003 felt honour bound in backing David Davis even if they were more sympathetic to David Cameron.JohnO said:
Didn't know that. Could well be, which would explain why Green in particular backed DD (and indeed was his media spokesman) rather than Cameron with whom he surely was far more ideologically sympathetic. Unlike Benn, we love personalities and sod the ishhooos.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am aware. I can see Raab being the great unifier as PM/leader by bringing across both Grieve and Davis.JohnO said:TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.
Didn't Grieve and Green both feel honour bound in supporting Davis in 2005 because they persuaded him not to stand in 2003.
I think a few backed David Davis in the first round and then switched to Cameron in the second round. I think Davis lost a net 5 between rounds.
Personally I think we should return to the men in grey suits choosing the leader.
Obviously the men in grey suits would be a four man group comprising yourself, David Herdson, Tissue Price, and my goodself.
Personally I think you should hold out for an Earldom and Viceroy of Scotland if when Raab becomes PM.0 -
So still no tariffs then between GB and NI.CarlottaVance said:
No tariffs + same standards = no border checksHYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs between GB and NI then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
No tariffs + different standards* = border checks.
* or even 'same' standards not subject to same rules (ie ECJ)
' 57.8% of NI voters want special status within the EU and to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.
47.9% would vote to join the Republic of Ireland in the event of a hard border in NI with the Republic of Ireland and a hard Brexit, 45.4% to stay in the UK'
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/northern-ireland-support-join-irish-republic-eu-hard-brexit-poll-lucidtalk-a8098531.html0 -
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Isn't No.1 also a red line direct from the Good Friday Agreement? Which is Ireland, UK (including NI).FF43 said:
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.0 -
Probably because such arrangements weren't made in the same manner?SouthamObserver said:
Also like Portugal and the Azores and Madeira, I think. Given that, it's hard to see why something similar for the UK would be treasonous.rcs1000 said:
And Busingen and GermanySouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
So Brexit finally solves the problem of Northern Ireland: we get to foist it onto the Republic and get our £11bn back?HYUFD said:
57.8% of NI voters want special status within the EU and to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union.CarlottaVance said:
No tariffs + same standards = no border checksHYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs between GB and NI then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
No tariffs + different standards* = border checks.
* or even 'same' standards not subject to same rules (ie ECJ)
47.9% would vote to join the Republic of Ireland in the event of a hard border in NI and a hard Brexit, 45.4% to stay in the UK
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/northern-ireland-support-join-irish-republic-eu-hard-brexit-poll-lucidtalk-a8098531.html0 -
That could be right, I know ratification is often done, but not sure if it is necessary.JohnO said:
I thought that Treaties were entirely covered by the Royal Prerogative and no Parliamentary ratification is legally required.RobD said:
The executive has total monopoly over negotiating treaties, the only role parliament plays is ratification.archer101au said:
Constitutionally, the PM does not have the power to negotiate a treaty on her own - she is not the US President. So if she has negotiated without a mandate from the Cabinet or outside of the existing mandate, it would be a grave matter, even if she was able to get it approved later.kle4 said:
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:
This is seperate from her ability to pass the deal, which clearly she will not be able to do.0 -
It's complicated....JohnO said:
I thought that Treaties were entirely covered by the Royal Prerogative and no Parliamentary ratification is legally required.RobD said:
The executive has total monopoly over negotiating treaties, the only role parliament plays is ratification.archer101au said:
Constitutionally, the PM does not have the power to negotiate a treaty on her own - she is not the US President. So if she has negotiated without a mandate from the Cabinet or outside of the existing mandate, it would be a grave matter, even if she was able to get it approved later.kle4 said:
I think that is a rather hysterical interpretation. If May cannot sell it to Cabinet, and Cabinet cannot sell it to Parliament, then it won't happen, if she can and they can it will, and it will be the sovereign decision of parliament either way.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:
This is seperate from her ability to pass the deal, which clearly she will not be able to do.
http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05855/SN05855.pdf
I think the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act 2010 allows the Commons to block ratification. I assume (but cannot be sure) that the WA would change domestic law and therefore would need Parliamentary approval in any event. Maybe someone has more expertise.0 -
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.0 -
If I were in the DUP I would be looking a lot more carefully at what all the polling tells us about attitudes to Northern Ireland on the British mainland. Put simply, standing in the way of a Brexit deal may not strengthen ties! If we do get to No Deal thanks to the DUP, it could get rather interesting.HYUFD said:
It does not erect a border with tariffs between GB and NI as the whole UK will still be in the CU but ultimately you have to listen to what voters in NI want and as the poll I showed made clear a majority of voters in NI want to stay in the SM and CU and have no border in Ireland. As the poll also made clear not keeping NI in the SM and CU poses more of a threat to the Union than keeping NI in the SM and CURobD said:
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
But if memory serves, their foreign relations are done in the name of the British Crown (via the Privy Council?) and their defence is via the British Armed Forces.rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Many thanks and I’ll suggest that to my hosts.Alistair said:
May I recommend Stravaigan on Gibson Street for dinner.JohnO said:
As it happens I shall be in Glasgow next weekend. I’m sure my informal ‘soundings’ will prove overwhelmingly positive.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't have any pure red shoes, I do have some red and white trainers.JohnO said:
Grey suits and red shoes, my dear fellow. And think of Dom in No.10. For sure, my own immediate elevation to the peerage, and your GCMG to follow after a decent but not protracted period.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember reading that a few Tory MPs after telling Davis not to stand in 2003 felt honour bound in backing David Davis even if they were more sympathetic to David Cameron.JohnO said:
Didn't know that. Could well be, which would explain why Green in particular backed DD (and indeed was his media spokesman) rather than Cameron with whom he surely was far more ideologically sympathetic. Unlike Benn, we love personalities and sod the ishhooos.TheScreamingEagles said:
I am aware. I can see Raab being the great unifier as PM/leader by bringing across both Grieve and Davis.JohnO said:TSE - You are, of course, aware that our Dom was also Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve. What's not to like, eh? Mind you Grieve supported "DD of the SS" (Gyles Brandreth) for leader in 2005. As did Damian Green.
Didn't Grieve and Green both feel honour bound in supporting Davis in 2005 because they persuaded him not to stand in 2003.
I think a few backed David Davis in the first round and then switched to Cameron in the second round. I think Davis lost a net 5 between rounds.
Personally I think we should return to the men in grey suits choosing the leader.
Obviously the men in grey suits would be a four man group comprising yourself, David Herdson, Tissue Price, and my goodself.
Personally I think you should hold out for an Earldom and Viceroy of Scotland if when Raab becomes PM.0 -
It's the "any period of time" bit that's hysterical and absurd. The fact is that the UK has failed to replicate any of the EU's existing trade agreements, excepting Southern Africa, in the last two and a half years. Absent a temporary continuation of these through remaining in the customs union through the withdrawal agreement, there will be serious disruption for British exporters to large portions of the world. This does not just mean countries with whom the EU has FTAs, it also includes countries like the US where we drop out of existing arrangements like Open Skies.LordOfReason said:I’m not going to attack Archie simply because of location, he’s entitled to his views and his passion for the country wherever he is. As we all are.
But
“Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal”
I genuinely want to know the evidence supporting that statement0 -
The can only happen if approved by the House of Commons. How is that treasonous?RobD said:
Probably because such arrangements weren't made in the same manner?SouthamObserver said:
Also like Portugal and the Azores and Madeira, I think. Given that, it's hard to see why something similar for the UK would be treasonous.rcs1000 said:
And Busingen and GermanySouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Perhaps Ruth and the SCons should be similarly contemplative (not their strong point, I know).SouthamObserver said:
If I were in the DUP I would be looking a lot more carefully at what all the polling tells us about attitudes to Northern Ireland on the British mainland. Put simply, standing in the way of a Brexit deal may not strengthen ties! If we do get to No Deal thanks to the DUP, it could get rather interesting.HYUFD said:
It does not erect a border with tariffs between GB and NI as the whole UK will still be in the CU but ultimately you have to listen to what voters in NI want and as the poll I showed made clear a majority of voters in NI want to stay in the SM and CU and have no border in Ireland. As the poll also made clear not keeping NI in the SM and CU poses more of a threat to the Union than keeping NI in the SM and CURobD said:
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Most MPs have secret shrines at home and offer fealty to Brussels every night.SouthamObserver said:
The can only happen if approved by the House of Commons. How is that treasonous?RobD said:
Probably because such arrangements weren't made in the same manner?SouthamObserver said:
Also like Portugal and the Azores and Madeira, I think. Given that, it's hard to see why something similar for the UK would be treasonous.rcs1000 said:
And Busingen and GermanySouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Polling pretty closeAlanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=10 -
I am not attacking his personal circumstances. I am pointing out that someone accusing the British Prime Minister of potentially being a traitor for possibly proposing a Brexit deal he does not like lives and works in Australia.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.
0 -
To quote Aesop, it's the difference between being an oak tree and a reed. Being an oak tree works and works and works, until it catastrophically doesn't work.SouthamObserver said:
If I were in the DUP I would be looking a lot more carefully at what all the polling tells us about attitudes to Northern Ireland on the British mainland. Put simply, standing in the way of a Brexit deal may not strengthen ties! If we do get to No Deal thanks to the DUP, it could get rather interesting.HYUFD said:
It does not erect a border with tariffs between GB and NI as the whole UK will still be in the CU but ultimately you have to listen to what voters in NI want and as the poll I showed made clear a majority of voters in NI want to stay in the SM and CU and have no border in Ireland. As the poll also made clear not keeping NI in the SM and CU poses more of a threat to the Union than keeping NI in the SM and CURobD said:
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
It's the reason I really worry about Israel right now.0 -
Number 2 is quite right. Number 1 comes about as a result of no deal .No 3 might be breakable, but it's a big gamble for May.FF43 said:
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.0 -
There was a reason why the Scottish Tories were very largely in favour of Remain. They know how this ends up.Theuniondivvie said:
Perhaps Ruth and the SCons should be similarly contemplative (not their strong point, I know).SouthamObserver said:
If I were in the DUP I would be looking a lot more carefully at what all the polling tells us about attitudes to Northern Ireland on the British mainland. Put simply, standing in the way of a Brexit deal may not strengthen ties! If we do get to No Deal thanks to the DUP, it could get rather interesting.HYUFD said:
It does not erect a border with tariffs between GB and NI as the whole UK will still be in the CU but ultimately you have to listen to what voters in NI want and as the poll I showed made clear a majority of voters in NI want to stay in the SM and CU and have no border in Ireland. As the poll also made clear not keeping NI in the SM and CU poses more of a threat to the Union than keeping NI in the SM and CURobD said:
No, but it erects a border between two parts of the UK.HYUFD said:
So there would still be no tariffs then and no hard border in Ireland which is what most voters in NI wantarcher101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Kein Platz fur Die Linke, nicht wahr?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Polling pretty closeAlanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
(Can't do umlauts)0 -
His location is relevant to this debate. It is easier for a bomber to ignore the consequences of his actions when he is 10,000 miles from the impact zone. And this poster is on here daily calling for ever more hardline cliff-edge Brexits. It’s natural that people remind others that he lives in suburban Brisbane. I am sure he would do likewise if I waged a daily campaign to convert the State of Queensland into a permanent landfill site for British toxic waste.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.0 -
You keep writing 'he won't be affected by a bad deal or no deal' - you don't know that.SouthamObserver said:
I am not attacking his personal circumstances. I am pointing out that someone accusing the British Prime Minister of potentially being a traitor for possibly proposing a Brexit deal he does not like lives and works in Australia.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.
Perhaps engage with his argument than his current geographical location?0 -
We need not only a divorce deal (the Withdrawal agreement), but also a Trade Deal or at least a binding agreement about the future trade relationship plus a refund on the Withdrawal agreement terms if the trade deal is not finally signed.archer101au said:
That would appear to mean that Olly Robbins has sold out the UK and he is waiting to inform TM of what he has done. It would be absolutely extraordinary if Robbins has reached a deal without having political approval. But then May does not have Cabinet approval for anything other than Chequers. The conventions of Government that have been in place for centuries being overturned in a desperate attempt to sell out the country.CarlottaVance said:0 -
That worked really well, last time it mattered....viewcode said:
their defence is via the British Armed Forces.rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
The PM and anyone who will accept her deal - several million Britons.SouthamObserver said:
I am not attacking his personal circumstances. I am pointing out that someone accusing the British Prime Minister of potentially being a traitor for possibly proposing a Brexit deal he does not like lives and works in Australia.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.0 -
You can put an “e” after the relevant vowel instead if you want. Such as ”fuer” . But it can make words look a bit weird.OldKingCole said:
Kein Platz fur Die Linke, nicht wahr?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Polling pretty closeAlanbrooke said:
Bavarian election result - first forecast
https://wahltool.zdf.de/wahlergebnisse/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY.html?i=1
(Can't do umlauts)0 -
Always delighted to answer a direct question. And this is probably the most important point I have made.LordOfReason said:
I’m not going to attack Archie simply because of location, he’s entitled to his views and his passion for the country wherever he is. As we all are.
But
“Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal”
I genuinely want to know the evidence supporting that statement
Under the CU, the EU can negotiate FTAs on behalf of the CU. BUT although the UK would be bound by the terms of these treaties and the tariff agreements, the third parties with which the EU is signing the FTAs are NOT bound to provide these benefits to the UK - the UK will not be part of the EU, and the FTA is between the third country and the EU. The UK is not a party to the FTA.
So it is a totally one sided arrangement. We are bound by whatever the EU agrees, but we don't get access to the FTAs terms, only the tariff arrangement. The EU can therefore sign an FTA which gives a third country preferential access to parts of the UK market, and the UK has no say, but the UK does not get the reciprocal rights in the third country.
Therefore this outcome is far more damaging to the UK than any of the alternatives and would result in massive damage to UK trade internationally if it became permanent. It would be simply mad to agree to this.
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Just a matter of interpretation. Are Manxmen or Islanders less British than Northern Irish?rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
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No true Scotsman.....Anazina said:
His location is relevant to this debateCarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.0 -
You often say this, yet Remainers already do this, all the time. Reminds me of last weekend when you blamed Remainers for the mess that Brexit was in. Not your finest hour.CarlottaVance said:
You keep writing 'he won't be affected by a bad deal or no deal' - you don't know that.SouthamObserver said:
I am not attacking his personal circumstances. I am pointing out that someone accusing the British Prime Minister of potentially being a traitor for possibly proposing a Brexit deal he does not like lives and works in Australia.CarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.
Perhaps engage with his argument than his current geographical location?0 -
Take your own advice - engage with what I have written.CarlottaVance said:
No true Scotsman.....Anazina said:
His location is relevant to this debateCarlottaVance said:
Mr Archer's personal circumstances are his own business - none of ours. Much better (and frankly more in character) to attack his ideas than his personal circumstances, of which you admit you are completely ignorant.SouthamObserver said:
I think that it is reasonable to assume that someone who lives and works in Australia is not likely to have his job or living standards negatively impacted by a No Deal Brexit. If that is not the case, Mr Archer is at perfect liberty to inform us.
Not that its any of our business, but below he replied 'all of the above' when I suggested it entirely possible for an Australian resident to have family, property, investments or pensions in the UK.0 -
I think in the medium term, 3, the ability to diverge from the EU is the one that will go. It's the status quo option. Everything else is too hard.Pulpstar said:
Number 2 is quite right. Number 1 comes about as a result of no deal .No 3 might be breakable, but it's a big gamble for May.FF43 said:
It's reasonably simple. The red lines that count are:solarflare said:With Ruth Davidson adding her own personal red line today it got me wondering: has anyone ever drawn a diagram of all the red lines various factions/individuals have stated they all have?
I'm betting it would look sort of like one of those laser lattice grids that Tom Cruise has to somehow negotiate if he wants to break into the villain's maximum security laboratory.
1. No hard land border in Ireland. Ireland and EU.
2. No sea border in Irish Sea. DUP and UK government .
3. The ability for the UK to diverge from the EU. Tory Brexiteers.
The three red lines are incompatible. At least one has to give.
I wouldn't say No 1, as opposed to 2 or 3 isithe result of No Deal. There won't be a deal unless one of those three red lines is discarded. Any combination of two of them is possible; all three is Impossible. I don't expect the EU to discard its red line. The hint today is that Mrs May will prioritise her Brexiteers over the DUP. Which is not surprising. She is a tribal politician.0 -
Yeah, Brexiteers, answer the bit Roberts added on too while you’re at it.rcs1000 said:
It's the "any period of time" bit that's hysterical and absurd. The fact is that the UK has failed to replicate any of the EU's existing trade agreements, excepting Southern Africa, in the last two and a half years. Absent a temporary continuation of these through remaining in the customs union through the withdrawal agreement, there will be serious disruption for British exporters to large portions of the world. This does not just mean countries with whom the EU has FTAs, it also includes countries like the US where we drop out of existing arrangements like Open Skies.LordOfReason said:I’m not going to attack Archie simply because of location, he’s entitled to his views and his passion for the country wherever he is. As we all are.
But
“Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal”
I genuinely want to know the evidence supporting that statement0 -
Ouch...CarlottaVance said:
That worked really well, last time it mattered....viewcode said:
their defence is via the British Armed Forces.rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
0 -
Sounds like it was an attempted bounce.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Channel Islands are not part of the UK ( they "report" to the queen, not the UK government, the queen delegates oversight to the UK government, but by treaty and custom they are self governing, although many UK laws are adopted more or less automatically).Foxy said:
Just a matter of interpretation. Are Manxmen or Islanders less British than Northern Irish?rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
Channel Islanders never benefited from Freedom of Movement in the EU.0 -
Perhaps we should dispatch our sherpa to the Himalayas?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Unusually, I disagree with you from a technical perspective rather than a moral one.archer101au said:
Always delighted to answer a direct question. And this is probably the most important point I have made.LordOfReason said:
I’m not going to attack Archie simply because of location, he’s entitled to his views and his passion for the country wherever he is. As we all are.
But
“Remaining in a CU for any period of time would be a disastrous outcome for the UK; far worse than either Remaining or No Deal”
I genuinely want to know the evidence supporting that statement
Under the CU, the EU can negotiate FTAs on behalf of the CU. BUT although the UK would be bound by the terms of these treaties and the tariff agreements, the third parties with which the EU is signing the FTAs are NOT bound to provide these benefits to the UK - the UK will not be part of the EU, and the FTA is between the third country and the EU. The UK is not a party to the FTA.
So it is a totally one sided arrangement. We are bound by whatever the EU agrees, but we don't get access to the FTAs terms, only the tariff arrangement. The EU can therefore sign an FTA which gives a third country preferential access to parts of the UK market, and the UK has no say, but the UK does not get the reciprocal rights in the third country.
Therefore this outcome is far more damaging to the UK than any of the alternatives and would result in massive damage to UK trade internationally if it became permanent. It would be simply mad to agree to this.
If you look at - for example - CETA, you will see that the UK itself is a signatory to it. It is not solely a treaty between the EU and Canada. Turkey, by contrast, is not a signatory to CETA. It is therefore at the discretion of the EU and the UK what happens to the arrangement post Brexit if the UK remained in the Customs Union.0 -
Remembered every year on May 9th.viewcode said:
Ouch...CarlottaVance said:
That worked really well, last time it mattered....viewcode said:
their defence is via the British Armed Forces.rcs1000 said:
Technically those are not part of the United Kingdom, so your comparison is not accurate.Foxy said:
Or between UK and Channel Islands, Isle of Man?SouthamObserver said:
So it would be like mainland Spain and the Canary Islands? Or Ceuta and Melilla?archer101au said:
RobD is correct; HYUFD is wrong. If NI is in the EU SM they would not be part of the UK SM. There would be a regulatory barrier between the two and goods could not move without friction between GB and NI The fact that there would be no tariffs does not change this.HYUFD said:
Given the whole UK would be in the Customs Union there would still be no tariffs between NI and GBRobD said:
Aren't NI currently in a single market with the rest of the UK? Surely they'd have to leave that in order to stay in one with the EU.HYUFD said:
The CU for the UK is preferred by most voters to No Deal and the CU and SM in NI is preferred by most NI voters to a hard border, if a hard border in NI that will be a boost to Nationalists and if No Deal for the UK that will be a huge boost to the SNP and the Yes to Scottish independence campaign posing a far greater threat to the UKstodge said:
Could you, as a Conservative and a Unionist, support a deal which keeps the CU for the UK and the SM for Northern Ireland?HYUFD said:If there is a Deal agreed and passed by Parliament then May will still be there, if not then Corbyn could well be PM this time next year and the 2019 Tory Party Conference will be addressed not by the PM but by the Leader of the Opposition
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This discussion has been closed.