politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead?
This market on which countries will leave the EU by 2025 from Paddy Power on first inspection seems like an excellent way to contribute to the Paddy Power bonus fund.
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At least it's not as bad as The Last Jedi then...
It's as bad as watching the Last Jedi while eating pineapple on pizza?
FPT: missed the literary reference in the title first thing, Mr. Meeks, but I did like it.
On-topic: agreed. Much harder for others to leave. For a start, they've seen the EU's 'reasonable' offer of trying to annex territory for the purpose of customs. Second, most other EU countries are in or on-track for eurozone membership. Last, but not least, those countries outside of the eurozone are all significantly smaller than us.
Mr. Eagles, I haven't seen Solo, but The Last Jedi was easily the worst Star Wars film I have seen.
Edited extra bit: "This is state propaganda worthy of the USSR."
Mr. Owls, if that were true, Corbyn would be delighted.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1043574114760499201
But on topic, no one else is leaving. It is too hard, and even with all the areas of disagreement with other nations are any really going to go? Hungary and others seem more like they will always push at the margins, but would would never go over the edge.
If I was younger I just might have been tempted by Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. If NATO is wound down in Trump's second term and we are no longer that interested/back to living in caves I could well believe that Russia might have teased them away from the EU by then. Certainly better than a 33/1 chance.
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1043109332060135424
If you put a gun to my head, I'd go with Greece, simply because their economic armageddon has merely been postponed rather than alleviated, and there's a limit to how much misery a country can stand.
From our perspective, we should wish them well; a prosperous EU is in our national interest, ranting from the UKIP ultras notwithstanding.
Hungary is possible, but more likely to be expelled than anything else.
Pleasant after to all - though why is the Czech Republic seen as more likely than Hungary?
The problem of migration from Africa/Middle East will not go away.
If the Dublin Convention is not reformed soon, I’d say Italy or Greece is next in line to quit.
If Dublin is reformed, I’d say Hungary (or perhaps the whole of the East) is next to quit.
All the other bets look to be hopelessly bad value in my opinion.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2018/07/so-last-jedi-spoilers-galore.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45617662
It is notable that the number of arrivals arriving has dropped significantly, and precedes the new Italian Government.
https://www.iom.int/news/mediterranean-migrant-arrivals-reach-78372-deaths-reach-1728
The pan EU approach has made a difference, even though frictions continue, including supporting the Libyan coastguard, and some low profile but successful interdiction of trans saharan trafficking routes.
https://twitter.com/tombaldwin66/status/1043846837281726465?s=21
This is a very divided country, and not one that can easily be led anywhere.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1043506045925175296
https://twitter.com/TomBaldwin66/status/1043846837281726465
It's the young versus the old.
If we can have a referendum in Scotland, why can't there be one in Northern Ireland? And when given the actual choice it doesn't seem guaranteed that the NIrish would vote for split. There's apparently £11b worth of reason why neither they (nor in fact the Republic) would be in favour of it.
If we do end up with another referendum, and Remain win by the slenderest of margins, we'll see that (but with increased bitterness and a broader base of continuing dissent from EU-sceptics, given the first result would have been overturned).
https://twitter.com/foxnewspoll/status/1043855252691329024?s=19
In the middle one has the mass of the population who are not extremists, work, pay (lots of) tax and want a sensible conclusion while not being obsessed. I use as the control here my wife -a couple of degrees, couple of diplomas and would look at most of the posters here with a sense of bafflement and wonder that they have nothing better to do.
*Like Corbyn, he has not changed since University. This is not a good thing.
https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1043895711513874432
It is extremely difficult now to see how a sensible conclusion happens.
More likely would be Sweden if it was given a forced choice of joining the Eurozone or leaving the EU and joining Norway in the EEA
The only way to secure Brexit now is a Norway or Canada type deal, ideally the latter negotiated in a transition
What could go wrong.....
Roughly 5/6 of MPs were for Remain.
Excepting print media, Remain had every advantage, including spending, and the power of inertia. It remains (ahem) deeply surprising they managed to lose.
At the same time, the billions is also a less controversial total reference to the combined expense of the Murdoch/Rothermere/Desmond/Barclay/Mercer media operations.
Anyway, I must be off. Place nicely, Myrmidons.
First up Plymouth for its campaigning against the evil Tory council, next up Gower for producing a food bank making sandwiches to deal with the victims of evil Tory austerity. Calder Valley LGBT group also now up for an award for helping engage the local LGBT community to unseat the apparently homophobic local Tory MP
Rayner calls for crackdown on use of anonymous accounts on social media to spread abuse
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/98463/senior-labour-official-plunged-sectarian-row-over
:-)
Really????
Experience is a great teacher.
You have no idea as to my views on the DUP. As far as I am aware, there has not been a thread where making comments on specific incidents relating to the DUP would have been relevant.
We are in the middle of the Labour conference where the Chair of that conference has made a anti-Catholic comment. It is absolutely worthy of comment in and of itself.
It certainly seems an odd remark, but hardly calling the Pope the AntiChrist!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6197263/Corbyn-critic-MP-armed-guard-receiving-death-threats-criticising-Labour-leader.html
Remember all that bollocks about a kinder, gentler politics.
Keeps them to the straight and narrow.
You're happy that party has such an influential role in Brexit?
As an aside I did a thread listing a few of the anti-Catholic bigotry of the DUP a few months.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/18/if-the-dup-can-make-martin-mcguinness-deputy-first-minister-of-northern-ireland-then-we-shouldnt-rule-them-out-making-corbyn-prime-minister/
Labour used to pretend they were a (small c) catholic party where all were welcome.
Back in 1994 when the Loyalist Paramilitary the UDA came up with a Doomsday plan in the event of a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland. The plan discussed taking Catholic hostages as part of creating a Protestant Homeland. The ”Doomsday” scenario recognises there would be large numbers of Catholics left within the Protestant homeland and offers three chilling options on dealing with them — expulsion, internment, or nullification.
Current DUP MP Sammy Wilson described the Doomsday plan as ”a very valuable return to reality”.
Dame Louise Ellman accused Unite boss Len McCluskey and PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka of trying to "smear the Jewish community" for speaking out.
http://www.brin.ac.uk/2017/religious-affiliation-and-party-choice-at-the-2017-general-election/
It was not brilliant although the fault was probably in the ordering. Then again Khan and his company "joined" us in the restaurant also. Which was nice.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Russian_sentiment
No doubt, as you have set yourself up as Witchfinder General, you'll be having a quiet word with yourself about your prejudices.