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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With or without EU, will anybody follow Le Royaume-Uni’s lead?

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  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2018

    How will Labour know when they have reached the point "can't get an election" and should start "campaigning for a public vote on the terms of Brexit"?

    Edit: "can't get an election" needed careful typing :smile:
    The argument that "Labour don't have the votes in Parliament to trigger an election, so therefore they should support a second referendum" is the most baffling of all. In case people haven't noticed, even if the leadership came out in support of a second referendum, they would be no closer (arguably further away) from getting the votes for that in Parliament than for a vote of no confidence...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    Socialists always want to repeat the same mistakes whilst claiming it will be different this time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Danny565 said:

    How will Labour know when they have reached the point "can't get an election" and should start "campaigning for a public vote on the terms of Brexit"?

    Edit: "can't get an election" needed careful typing :smile:
    The argument that "Labour don't have the votes in Parliament to trigger an election, so therefore they should support a second referendum" is the most baffling of all. In case people haven't noticed, they are no closer (arguably further away) from getting the votes for a second referendum than for a vote of no confidence, even if the leadership supported it...
    But surely it is just about political positioning, not actually delivering a GE or a referendum, which is why the motion seeks to give the impression Labour will try both somehow?
  • Time to go

    Have a pleasant evenings rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Am I the only PBer who hasn't watched a single episode of the Bodyguard?
    nope
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    Spoiler alert:









    And plot holes. The tape is presumably securing his thumb down to the switch, otherwise it would have triggered when he was out cold. It didn’t, so why does he have to maintain pressure on it while conscious? The entire scene appears to disobey the laws of physics.
  • Foxy said:

    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Recent poll has 66% wanting a trade deal with the US
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Foxy said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Am I the only PBer who hasn't watched a single episode of the Bodyguard?
    No, I havebeen watching Vanity Fair, and very good it is too.
    I switched off from that the moment I saw the pop music soundtrack to a Georgian drama
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    Foxy said:

    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Recent poll has 66% wanting a trade deal with the US
    Wanting it doesn't affect how easy it will be to do though of course.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Angela Merkel was struggling to avert a full-blown crisis inside her governing coalition over the weekend, as party leaders continued to feud over the fate of the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

    The chancellor and leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union was later on Sunday expected to hold emergency talks with the heads of the Social Democratic SPD and the Christian Social Union, the CDU’s Bavarian sister party."


    https://www.ft.com/content/98a0b1cc-bf21-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    How will Labour know when they have reached the point "can't get an election" and should start "campaigning for a public vote on the terms of Brexit"?

    Edit: "can't get an election" needed careful typing :smile:
    The argument that "Labour don't have the votes in Parliament to trigger an election, so therefore they should support a second referendum" is the most baffling of all. In case people haven't noticed, they are no closer (arguably further away) from getting the votes for a second referendum than for a vote of no confidence, even if the leadership supported it...
    But surely it is just about political positioning, not actually delivering a GE or a referendum, which is why the motion seeks to give the impression Labour will try both somehow?
    I think it's about political positioning from the leadership. But I'm talking about some of the ultra-Remainers like Chuka Umunna and the "FBPE" crowd on Twitter: when Corbyn and McDonnell say they want a general election to settle the Brexit debate, the FBPE-ers respond with "but we can't get an election, Tory MPs would never vote for it, so support a second referendum instead", as if that wouldn't run into the exact same problems of parliamentary arithmetic....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Does Ireland do more trade with N Ireland than with mainland UK? I assume if their more valuable trade is with the mainland then pushing the UK into a CETA type deal is a non-optimal outcome for them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    Spoiler alert:









    And plot holes. The tape is presumably securing his thumb down to the switch, otherwise it would have triggered when he was out cold. It didn’t, so why does he have to maintain pressure on it while conscious? The entire scene appears to disobey the laws of physics.
    Indeed, and didn't they get the same type of bomb of off the train bomber woman in Episode 1? So why so difficult this time?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    edited September 2018

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    Yes, as indeed most of the country I expect but the writer wrapped things up with a few things hanging as he did in Line of Duty
    Up to 4 more series could follow

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/7328887/bodyguard-boss-four-more-series/
    Quite possibly, he certainly knows how to make engaging Sunday night drama
    Crap ending, though. Started well, then faded.
    I think it faded a bit after Keeley Hawes was killed off
    Spoiler alert:









    And plot holes. The tape is presumably securing his thumb down to the switch, otherwise it would have triggered when he was out cold. It didn’t, so why does he have to maintain pressure on it while conscious? The entire scene appears to disobey the laws of physics.
    Indeed, and didn't they get the same type of bomb of off the train bomber woman in Episode 1? So why so difficult this time?
    All of a sudden my complaints about the pylons being the wrong shape in "Star Trek: Discovery" seem so much more sane... :)
  • Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    No.

    Currently the EU are insisting that ANY option must include leaving NI inside the Customs Union as part of the backstop. Whether its Canada or EEA or any other model they're not varying on that.

    We're saying we won't agree to that no matter what. So something has to give.
  • RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    It applies if the deal doesn't deliver the on the commitments on the Irish border.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited September 2018
    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    Sweden actually
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
    It's a ridiculous situation. Both sides say they don't want a hard border, yet are working their hardest to ensure it happens.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    No.

    Currently the EU are insisting that ANY option must include leaving NI inside the Customs Union as part of the backstop. Whether its Canada or EEA or any other model they're not varying on that.

    We're saying we won't agree to that no matter what. So something has to give.
    In which case Canada is no more acceptable to the EU than Chequers?

    (EEA would presumably resolve the issue as the whole of the UK would be in the Single Market.)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    Foxy said:

    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Recent poll has 66% wanting a trade deal with the US
    How many of the 66% think May can negotiate her way out of a paper bag?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    No.

    Currently the EU are insisting that ANY option must include leaving NI inside the Customs Union as part of the backstop. Whether its Canada or EEA or any other model they're not varying on that.

    We're saying we won't agree to that no matter what. So something has to give.
    In which case Canada is no more acceptable to the EU than Chequers?

    (EEA would presumably resolve the issue as the whole of the UK would be in the Single Market.)
    Seems as though it is acceptable to them:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer-graphic-brexit-theresa-mays-red-lines-on-bespoke-model_uk_5a39497ce4b0fc99878f2058
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes.

    It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.

    We are seeing it with Brexit preparations, various banks have altered corporate structures to be on the safe side, but in terms of number of employees being shifted it is normally a few dozen.
  • Anti-Chequers MPs fear they are being bugged by the security services!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/23/bugged-anti-chequers-deal-brexiteers-fear-security-services/
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    Sweden actually
    Sweden is not a socialist country. Much of their public services and welfare is very market oriented.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Foxy said:

    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Recent poll has 66% wanting a trade deal with the US
    How many of the 66% think May can negotiate her way out of a paper bag?
    Probably most, as I suspect the vast majority of people have never seen her in a paper bag, leading to the assumption she can get out of one.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes. It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.
    £500 per employee is not a sensible level.What would you suggest £1 per year
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes. It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.
    £500 per employee is not a sensible level.What would you suggest £1 per year
    I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to say.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    notme said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    Sweden actually
    Sweden is not a socialist country. Much of their public services and welfare is very market oriented.
    But this is where this idea is from according to Labour
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690
    philiph said:

    Foxy said:

    Yes, fresh from demonstrating their negotiating expertise in Brussels and Salzburg, the Brexiteers are going to take on Donald Trump.

    What could possibly go wrong?
    Recent poll has 66% wanting a trade deal with the US
    How many of the 66% think May can negotiate her way out of a paper bag?
    Probably most, as I suspect the vast majority of people have never seen her in a paper bag, leading to the assumption she can get out of one.
    How confident are you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    No.

    Currently the EU are insisting that ANY option must include leaving NI inside the Customs Union as part of the backstop. Whether its Canada or EEA or any other model they're not varying on that.

    We're saying we won't agree to that no matter what. So something has to give.
    In which case Canada is no more acceptable to the EU than Chequers?

    (EEA would presumably resolve the issue as the whole of the UK would be in the Single Market.)
    Seems as though it is acceptable to them:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/michel-barnier-killer-graphic-brexit-theresa-mays-red-lines-on-bespoke-model_uk_5a39497ce4b0fc99878f2058
    Wasn't that (just) before the Irish backstop was agreed?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    RobD said:

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
    It's a ridiculous situation. Both sides say they don't want a hard border, yet are working their hardest to ensure it happens.
    The EU only cares about the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland and as they have us over a barrel regarding the damage No Deal would do to us, they'll get what they want.

    Given the protectionist tendencies of some of the Eu member states and their enthusiasm at the business they will steal from the UK, i think they are quite up for a hard UK/EU border. Remember, it's only the UK that's been talking about frictionless borders.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    They've been watching too much Bodyguard!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    Canada took 7 years to negotiate, we have perhaps seven weeks before it would need ratification.

    Canada means Blind Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
    It's a ridiculous situation. Both sides say they don't want a hard border, yet are working their hardest to ensure it happens.
    The EU only cares about the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland and as they have us over a barrel regarding the damage No Deal would do to us, they'll get what they want.

    Given the protectionist tendencies of some of the Eu member states and their enthusiasm at the business they will steal from the UK, i think they are quite up for a hard UK/EU border. Remember, it's only the UK that's been talking about frictionless borders.
    Well, no one ever said it would be easy. Oh...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40667879/eu-trade-deal-easiest-in-human-history
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes. It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.
    £500 per employee is not a sensible level.What would you suggest £1 per year
    I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to say.
    That £500 maximum dividend per employee is a sensible pledge and will not cause disinvestment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    They've been watching too much Bodyguard!
    Julia Montague should be worried
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
    It's a ridiculous situation. Both sides say they don't want a hard border, yet are working their hardest to ensure it happens.
    The EU only cares about the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland and as they have us over a barrel regarding the damage No Deal would do to us, they'll get what they want.

    Given the protectionist tendencies of some of the Eu member states and their enthusiasm at the business they will steal from the UK, i think they are quite up for a hard UK/EU border. Remember, it's only the UK that's been talking about frictionless borders.
    Put the hard border in the Irish Sea (and damn the DUP), or along the Cheviots if Scotland decides to secede, and that will be acceptable to the EU and most people in GB.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,690

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    JonathanD said:

    RobD said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    I believe the backstop only applies if no deal is reached?
    No, the backstop applies if any deal that is reached would result in the imposition of a border between north and south Ireland, ie CETA would result in a hard border and so would activate the backstop.

    A backstop agreement has to be in the agreement if we want any Exit Deal.

    The Chequers dream was that a frictionless enough trade agreement between the EU and the whole of the UK could be signed and any hard borders avoided.
    It's a ridiculous situation. Both sides say they don't want a hard border, yet are working their hardest to ensure it happens.
    The EU only cares about the hardness of the border between NI and Ireland and as they have us over a barrel regarding the damage No Deal would do to us, they'll get what they want.

    Given the protectionist tendencies of some of the Eu member states and their enthusiasm at the business they will steal from the UK, i think they are quite up for a hard UK/EU border. Remember, it's only the UK that's been talking about frictionless borders.
    Well, no one ever said it would be easy. Oh...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-40667879/eu-trade-deal-easiest-in-human-history
    Getting out of a paper bag is easy surely
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    No.

    Currently the EU are insisting that ANY option must include leaving NI inside the Customs Union as part of the backstop. Whether its Canada or EEA or any other model they're not varying on that.

    We're saying we won't agree to that no matter what. So something has to give.
    In which case Canada is no more acceptable to the EU than Chequers?

    (EEA would presumably resolve the issue as the whole of the UK would be in the Single Market.)
    Which is why there is talk today of May calling a general election in November so she can get a majority for a Canada Deal from UK voters and agree no hard border/ NI stays in a Customs Union without being brought down by the DUP.


    That would then also suit the EU who could thus sign off on the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period, the terms of the Canada FTA to be negotiated in the Transition
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes. It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.
    £500 per employee is not a sensible level.What would you suggest £1 per year
    I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to say.
    That £500 maximum dividend per employee is a sensible pledge and will not cause disinvestment.
    The dividend amount is irrelevant. It is about how much of your company is taken out of investors hands without their control (it is different from companies choosing to offer a share scheme).

    I believe it is trivial for companies to avoid in a globalized world and as we see with the likes of Starbucks are very nimble when it comes to these things.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Also,

    "Any dividends above that amount (£500) would be skimmed off by the government for a “social fund” to help pay for public services. the windfall for the government from dividends over 500 pounds per employee would amount to 2.1 billion pounds after five years."

    So, its another tax on doing business.

    So on Day one of conference, what's that two big tax increases already and we haven't even got started.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Not everyone liked the Bodyguard it seems

    https://twitter.com/gilescoren/status/1043959181508784130?s=20
  • Also,

    "Any dividends above that amount (£500) would be skimmed off by the government for a “social fund” to help pay for public services."

    So, its another tax on doing business.

    So on Day one of conference, what's that two big tax increases already and we haven't even got started.

    Did you expect anything else?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    Also,

    "Any dividends above that amount (£500) would be skimmed off by the government for a “social fund” to help pay for public services."

    So, its another tax on doing business.

    So on Day one of conference, what's that two big tax increases already and we haven't even got started.

    Did you expect anything else?
    No, as I said down thread, there is however a change in rhetoric. Rather than trying to downplay tax rises as they did at the last GE, it seems emboldened it make it clear what is coming.

    Only an idiot would believe McDonnell's claim at the last GE that if he got access to the levers of power only the super rich would pay.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    edited September 2018
    This relates to a Russian controlled shell company apparently buying surplus Finnish navy vessels and properties next to strategic maritime lanes and constructing helipads and shelters cut to bedrock.

    https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1043968030688964609
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    saddo said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    All the multinational companies based here now, won't be in the future. Big sensible British companies will move their corporate bases elsewhere.

    10% of nothing is nothing
    Is that the same mulitnationals who were going to abandon Britain if we introduced a minimum wage 20 years ago?
    It is very easy to move your corporate structure around in a globalized world and requires minimal changes.

    It is nonsense comparison with moving your whole business and all employees. Furthermore, the minimum wage was introduced at a sensible level / structure.

    We are seeing it with Brexit preparations, various banks have altered corporate structures to be on the safe side, but in terms of number of employees being shifted it is normally a few dozen.
    Same with Insurance markets and to an extent brokers

    I know of one Broker who shifted hq to London, might they want to go back stateside if profits are reduced?

  • Also,

    "Any dividends above that amount (£500) would be skimmed off by the government for a “social fund” to help pay for public services."

    So, its another tax on doing business.

    So on Day one of conference, what's that two big tax increases already and we haven't even got started.

    Did you expect anything else?
    No, as I said down thread, there is however a change in rhetoric. Rather than trying to downplay tax rises as they did at the last GE, it seems emboldened it make it clear what is coming.

    Only an idiot would believe McDonnell's claim at the last GE that if he got access to the levers of power only the super rich would pay.
    He is just redefining super rich as anyone earning minimum wage.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RoyalBlue said:

    In other Labour news:
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1043968914659700738
    How to drive businesses out of the UK...

    This is only the start of the idiocy that awaits us if McDonnell gets his hand on the tiller. Venezuela and Zimbabwe appear to be the models of choice.
    Sweden actually
    But that is where socialism ends up, in destroyed economies and lives
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    Regarding all this noise around the Canada or Canada+ option...

    Do I understand it correctly that such an option would necessarily leave NI inside the Customs Union, with a customs border in the Irish Sea?

    Canada took 7 years to negotiate, we have perhaps seven weeks before it would need ratification.

    Canada means Blind Brexit.
    Disingenuous. The vast bulk of that time was negotiating equivalence. Our membership of the single market (as we are now) means at this point we are 100% compliant at 100% of everything. We don’t need to have negotiated the detail, just the clear direction for the withdrawal agreement to be agreed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    I see shagger Woods has just won the golf. Never been a fanboy of his, but you have to give him some begrudging respect for the determination to come back from all the injuries and terrible form, when money is absolutely no object to him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    I can't remember how I discovered this guy on Twitter but he certainly posts interesting stuff.

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043909547172253701
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    I usually get round to watching the latest TV dramas about 25 years after they're first shown. For example, last year I watched the original Twin Peaks series and a couple of weeks ago I watched the British version of House Of Cards for the first time.
    Hope you enjoyed House of Cards - it has dated a bit, but Richardson was sublime as FU
    It was rather dated because 99% of the politicians are old-ish white men. Susannah Harker was very nice though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Foxy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anyone else watch the final Bodyguard episode?

    Lots of questions running round my head

    I usually get round to watching the latest TV dramas about 25 years after they're first shown. For example, last year I watched the original Twin Peaks series and a couple of weeks ago I watched the British version of House Of Cards for the first time.
    I quite recommend "Back in Time for the Factory" as an interesting piece of working class feminist social history.

    It is set in the Welsh Valleys, but reminds me of when I first moved to Leicester and it was full of clothing factories.

    Thanks, I'll see if I can find it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Latest Opinium:
    Con 37% -2
    Lab 38% +1
    LDem 9% +2
    UKIP 8% +2


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    justin124 said:

    Latest Opinium:
    Con 37% -2
    Lab 38% +1
    LDem 9% +2
    UKIP 8% +2


    Source? Can't see anything on their twitter feed about it, nor places like Britain Elects who is normally on it when it comes to this stuff.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    AndyJS said:

    I can't remember how I discovered this guy on Twitter but he certainly posts interesting stuff.

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1043909547172253701

    Indeed... :)

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1040186929176891393
This discussion has been closed.