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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading
The data in this chart above has been extrapolated by the political scientist, Prof Matt Goodwin and shows a pretty clear picture about the view on Brexit amongst the C2DEs – working class voters.
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Not as good as the old Scottish Tory surge klaxon...
Indeed were Brexit to be reversed and free movement left in place because middle class voters narrowly won a second EU referendum for Remain this poll also suggests potential for a far right populist anti immigration party amongst the working class similar to what Bannon is trying to do with Tommy Robinson supporters, based on the old UKIP vote. Indeed Yougov recently had up to 25% willing to vote for such a hard right anti immigration party and 38% for a pro Brexit party.
Remember too Labour did better with lower middle class C1s at the last general election than skilled working class C2s who voted Tory. While C1s divided almost equally between Remain and Leave at the EU referendum almost two thirds of C2s voted Leave. Labour support is now stronger amongst the unskilled working class and unemployed DEs and the lower middle class C1s than it is with the skilled working class C2s who are a very pro Brexit group (and also the biggest class of voters for Trump)
Given that we don't see this change in the headline figures I assume that the ABC1 subsample is steady, or trending in the other direction.
On the large 10,000+ second referendum poll, the result for C2DEs is:
Remain: 43%
Leave: 57%
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tu6k2mk5wu/PeoplesVoteResults_Wave2_180821_GB_website.pdf
A somewhat obtuse typo if I may say so.
PS Any right thinking Eurofederalist in the EU27 isn't going to want to touch the UK with a bargepole. In that context, the UK is the crazy person who sits next to you on the tube.
As was posted in the previous thread some 2016 Leavers are now saying don't know rather than shifting to Remain
Amazing the other pensions lawyers tolerate it.
Besides, in the megapoll, both Remainers and Leavers were overrepresented in the unweighted sample (Remainers much more so). Not much sign of shyness there.
Lewis Hamilton is 3.65 for pole at Spa.
Mercedes have just sent Bottas, who’ll start at the back, into Q3. The only reason for doing this is to give Hamilton a tow along the straight in Q3. Less than a tenth of a second between Lewis and the Ferraris in Q2.
Edit. And it’s just started raining, which throws everything up in the air.
Edit2. It’s stopped raining! Welcome to Spa.
That may well lead to an over-representation from certain social classes - but in order to report the news, you need to have - I would say - above average literacy and various other skills. Those are far, far, far more important than which school you attended or what your parents did for a living.
If we don't have journalists who can write in such a way that people want to read, there is no point in having them at all.
As I also pointed out amongst working class voters on the megapoll the Leave vote is not softening, Leave is over 10% ahead with working class voters. Remain leads by 17% with middle class voters so if Remain won a second EU referendum it would be due to the middle class. That then gives big potential for a hard right anti immigration party to make inroads with the working class if free movement were left in place
You only have to look at the way the crazies have taken over Brighton Labour to see how destructive they can be when they put their minds to it.
Imagine having that legitimised by official party policy. It only takes small group to cause chaos for established councillors and MPs.
Sounds nice and cheap...
(Sorry, Alastair!)
But shy Brexiteers stalk the land. Try taking it away from them to see how many there are.....
Bookies don’t care about reasons though! Profit
That then leaves a big gap in the market for Farage, Banks and Bannon to launch a successor party to UKIP targeting that working class Leave vote on a hard right anti immigration agenda, especially if free movement was left in place exactly as it was before the original referendum vote
I have severe doubts.
I do think it would be a tragedy in terms of our contribution to democracy and respect for the electorate, but that's far too abstract for most people to give two shits about.
In political terms, we could potentially see a UKIP-a-like party splitting the right of centre vote, which could mean a fairly lengthy spell of Labour administration.
We would have our own Front National, AfD, Swedish Democrats as a result
MP poised to quit over Labour leader’s ‘Zionist’ slur as ex-BNP and Ku Klux Klan chiefs show support"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb1ee7bc-a7e7-11e8-81b1-5f6c4c87b639
A minority of angry crazies think all members should pledge fealty to Jezbollah and give him the same kind of loyalty he failed to give to any leader before him. But they are absolutely the minority. Up the road from me they foam at the mouth in anger about Anna Turley. As much as anything because they know they don't remotely have the numbers needed to remove her.
Here's the question. Members join the party. And noisily denounce Labour MPs as the enemy. And Labour officials. Labour CLP execs. Labour Councillors. Labour Council leaders. And despite clearly being entryists deny being entryists. Why then do a small number of existing members provide these people succour? You join a party its usually because you believe in it. Not because you don't. Tories have it right - Banks to local Tory Association "can I join please so I can change your leader your policies and your rules?" Tory Association to Banks: "Bugger Orf"
Now the choice will clearly be between different kinds of relationship with the EU: either membership with a say, or a peripheral relationship in the EU's sphere of influence.
We are getting a few more tweets. But no action. They are increasingly complicit in this mess.
If they aren't prepared to act or walk away, they are allowing Corbyn and his cult to continue unopposed.
The sands are shifting against Brexit.
The only one with some guts is mrs cooper balls.
To hide they all proceeded,
No soldier in that gallant band
Hid half as well as he did.
He lay concealed throughout the war,
And so preserved his gore, O!
That unaffected,
Undetected,
Well connected
Warrior,
The Duke of Plaza-Toro!
In every doughty deed, ha, ha!
He always took the lead, ha, ha!
That unaffected,
Undetected,
Well connected
Warrior,
The Duke of Plaza-Toro!
She has been silent.
And I don't believe she is working behind the scenes to remove Corbyn.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6097491/Notting-Hill-Carnival-expect-one-million-revellers-organisers-gear-Caribbean-feast.html
"I got some bad news this week. I discovered that I’m a ‘privileged, white male’. It was my agent who broke it to me. We were talking about the trouble he’s having in finding a publisher for my book — a work of non-fiction — when the following exchange took place.
Me: What’s wrong with my book?
Agent: There’s nothing wrong with your book. It’s brilliant. It’s moving. It’s funny.
Me: OK. So what’s the problem?
Agent: You’re the problem.
Me: Excuse me?
Agent: You’re a middle-aged, privileged white man. You’re out of fashion — and so is your book. Publishers think you’re too male. Too white. Things are difficult for writers like you at the moment."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/08/stop-calling-me-a-privileged-white-man-im-more-than-that/
"Is the UK divided?
Divided: 50%
Not divided: 50%"
.....
I know I harp on about bad luck this year, but it's justified.
Backed Raikkonen to be top 2. He was looking good for that. Then it started to rain. No matter, he was fastest. Then he came into the pits. It started drying out. He finished nowhere, and had no chance to improve.
......
Even if you are happy with the idea of sticking 2 fingers up at democracy.
Maybe I'm terribly naive, but this site is called political betting. The whole appeal for me is the idea that when people have skin in the game, they're more motivated to try to make accurate predictions. But almost all I see here is spin, which is antithetical to making good predictions. Does anybody- and I mean anybody- care about actually estimating the chance of, say, a second referendum so they can make some money betting, more than they care about cheerleading their preferred outcome?
Turned out they were written by an Anglican Vicar called Toby Forward. He also pranked the Church of England in much the same way under the name of Francis Wagstaffe.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/vince-cable-september-speech-lib-dem-resignation-rumours-2018-8
So maomentum could end up choosing the Lib Dem leader as well....
A slightly more recent example of this tendency is the tech monopoly tax to fund journalism he proposed earlier this week. It sounds a really good idea. Tech companies are frighteningly large, unaccountable, and make vast profits from doing stuff that often seems fairly socially useless.
But then you ask, how do you decide who to target? Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook are the obvious ones. But how are you deciding this? They're totally different types of companies. Amazon was primarily a retailer, so would you tax all companies of a certain size who buy and sell online - Argos won't be happy. Apple makes hardware - do you tax Samsung, or Cisco Systems? Amazon also reinvests almost all its additional revenue so rarely makes a 'profit'. They are also global companies with huge numbers of tax lawyers and a business model that lends itself to gaming the system. If it's companies of a certain size then well done, you've just reinvented corporation tax and will end up taxing things like the car companies you've pledged to preserve jobs with.
If you tax per UK users, then you effectively reinforce their monopolies and stifle the potential of say, the next Snapchat, Whatsapp or Tinder to challenge them - as only those megacompanies would be able to afford it. You'd make it more likely they get bought out.
It's not a stupid idea in its aims, but the level of thinking that's gone into it is sub-A Level.
There are two reasons. Firstly, it's a matter of timing. Barring an extension of article 50 (which is not solely within the UK's remit), there's not enough time left for us to complete the procedural steps necessary for a second referendum.
Secondly, we'd need the agreement of our EU counterparties that we could return to the status quo ante. If they were agreeable (and I mean on an official basis, rather than warm noises from people like Tusk), then that would dramatically increase the likelihood. However, if you look at the Commission's position, they're using Brexit as an opportunity to look at removing all rebates for both simplification and fairness purposes.
Unless you assume that a second referendum would be decisive (e.g. 70:30 either way), the UK would be a dubious asset for the EU27. From a EZ point of view, Brexit means that non-EZ countries can no longer even theoretically summon a blocking minority under QMV, and it removes the anomaly of a non-EZ net contributor. We tend to have an incredibly insular view of Brexit; it's been our Achilles heel all along. If I were Macron, I'd be cheering to the rooftops at the prospect of removing perfidious Albion.
Hopefully not too partisan for your taste.