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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    Exciting as it might be for Cable to start his speech and then introduce all the Labour quitters one by one before announcing the launch of the New Party, I can't quite see it being that significant.
    If Umunna is announced as the final joiner just as Cable finishes his resignation speech though it would be electric
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Believe it or not, this is nothing to do with Brexit qua Brexit, I'm just astonished that May appears to have actually made a decision.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/25/theresa-may-orders-space-race-brexit-sat-nav-system-rival-eus/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1535229197
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    John_M said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    Exciting as it might be for Cable to start his speech and then introduce all the Labour quitters one by one before announcing the launch of the New Party, I can't quite see it being that significant.
    I could conceivably see Mike Gapes joining the Lib Dems. Most so-called Labour moderates are just going to hang onto their sinecures until the public sees fit to put them out of their misery.

    'Labour is a moral crusade or it is nothing' rings a bit hollow.
    Moral jihad these days.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    John_M said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    Exciting as it might be for Cable to start his speech and then introduce all the Labour quitters one by one before announcing the launch of the New Party, I can't quite see it being that significant.
    I could conceivably see Mike Gapes joining the Lib Dems. Most so-called Labour moderates are just going to hang onto their sinecures until the public sees fit to put them out of their misery.

    'Labour is a moral crusade or it is nothing' rings a bit hollow.
    The first person to leave and join the LDs (or god forbid the Tories, though that looks very implausible) would feel like an important moment. Sure people have crossed the floor before, but in the current ruckus if people just go Indy it would probably be them saying 'I'm still Labour, it's just that Labour has been led down the wrong path', rather than making a clean break.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,797
    John_M said:

    Believe it or not, this is nothing to do with Brexit qua Brexit, I'm just astonished that May appears to have actually made a decision.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/25/theresa-may-orders-space-race-brexit-sat-nav-system-rival-eus/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1535229197

    I'm not sure she has made a decision. I think this is a proof of concept.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    The fact that UKIP have collapsed (in every respect) is not a flaw in the polling. In any case it's central to the scenario I outlined below that the likes of Farage would be beneficial to the Remain campaign by rubbishing the actual Brexit deal that's on the table, so I don't see him or UKIP as an asset to any future Leave campaign where Leave means a long and tedious process.

    You can't construct a hypothetical about the future by winding back the clock and replaying it.
    IMO they would not fight on the proposed deal, they would fight the campaign on lying politicians. Videos of T May saying "Brexit means Brexit" and "We will control our borders, our laws, our etc" would be played non-stop. The videos would end with "LIARS."

    EDIT: This is why May will never go for a second ref or peoples thingy, her political career would end.
    Yes, any second referendum Leave campaign would start with videos of Cameron and May saying that they’ll implement the result and that Brexit means Brexit. It’ll be the original Leave campaign on steroids, while from the current evidence the Remain campaign will be based on the fact the that EU is Hotel California that we can never leave, and that Leave voters are a Basket of Deplorables.
    In a hypothetical referendum campaign I would have thought the thrust of the Remain campaign would be to ask voters: “do you think the country has been going in a better direction since the last vote?”, illustrated with Mail headlines and the utterances of Leavers.
    Watching a bunch of Londoners who earn more than the national average monthly wage per day, try and lecture the rest of the country why they were wrong the first time around is going to be hillarious to watch. They should sell tickets to it.
    It would largely comprise words from Londoners called Boris, Iain, Andrea, Liam and a northerner called David. And you’re right, it would be hilarious.

    Leave are the incumbents now and given their staggering ineptness in power, they would make for easy targets. Indeed, it’s highly likely their own campaign material would reinforce the Remain campaign themes.
    Great people talk about ideas.
    Average people talk about things.
    Small people talk about other people.


    Right now, Leavers are talking about ideas and Remainers are talking about other people.
    That's an interesting idea. But you are a terrible person.

    Pause.

    Oh.

    I'll get me coat.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It could do with most Tories + Labour Leave MPs like Stringer and Hoey and Field and Mann + the DUP voting for it. If the SNP abstain its passage would be guaranteed, it is not impossible Corbyn would abstain on a Deal or No Deal vote too

    SNP wouldn't abstain, they'd vote for a remain option and against any such deal or no deal referendum that didn't give Scotland a veto on the final choice (which would never happen so they'd vote against any referendum).

    It is impossible Corbyn would abstain on giving May a referendum she wants.
    Even if both the SNP and the vast majority of the Labour Party vote against a Deal or No Deal referendum proposed by May it could still pass with the support of the vast majority of Tory MPs (the ERG would vote for it as it included a No Deal option) and the DUP and 5 or 6 Labour Leave MPs much like the vote to Leave the Customs Union passed the Commons
    Currently the party is barely united on a notion of having a good potential deal but that is already fraying apart. The government has been winning votes with single-digit majorities it doesn't take many Remain-leaning Tory MPs to rebel to undo that wafer-thin majority. Once the rubicon of saying there will be no second referendum is crossed the Lords will have an overwhelming majority to put a Remain option in it. The Tory whips will not be able to prevent enough Tories rebelling at keeping that option. Afterall the Remain-backing Tory MPs will be saying its the public's choice and the PM will be the one giving the public the choice.

    Its one thing being compelled to leave because the last referendum settled the matter, its another thing entirely re-opening the issue with a new vote and expecting people who want to remain to stay signed up to deal or no deal.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    FF43 said:

    John_M said:

    Believe it or not, this is nothing to do with Brexit qua Brexit, I'm just astonished that May appears to have actually made a decision.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/25/theresa-may-orders-space-race-brexit-sat-nav-system-rival-eus/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1535229197

    I'm not sure she has made a decision. I think this is a proof of concept.
    She's made a decision to have a proof of concept. I'm still astonished :).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:


    The only possible second referendum is on the Noel Edmunds basis - deal or no deal.
    The minute that a hypothetical Deal or Remain referendum is proposed, the PM will be replaced by her own party.

    You know I'm writing a thread for publication in next week which says she might be replaced as Tory Leader but remain PM.

    You know a PM needs the support of a majority of MPs.

    Say Mrs May proposes another referendum on Remain or Leave options, she's ousted as Tory Leader but 100 Tory MPs align with 200 Labour MPs and enough from the Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP to keep Mrs May as PM to ensure the legislation for the referendum is passed.
    The Ramsay MacDonald option.

    It ended so well for Labour and MacDonald...
    That's one of the examples I use.

    Mrs May will learn from history, the other example I'm using is the Kadima route.

    Hopefully with a better outlook for Mrs May than Ariel Sharon.
    Boris or Farage or Mogg or Davis as Netanyahu ?
    Of course it was Michael Collins who did the ultimate 'sell out' of the Treaty with the British to create the Free State but De Valera who refused to accept it and ended up leading Ireland for decades
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924
    edited August 2018

    Sandpit said "Watching a bunch of Londoners who earn more than the national average monthly wage per day, try and lecture the rest of the country why they were wrong the first time around is going to be hillarious to watch. They should sell tickets to it".

    I genuinely think you are underestimating the extent to which people are reaching their own conclusions about how Brexit is turning out compared to how it was sold. I know it's only anecdotal but the anti-Brexit second referendum folks were out in force again today in our town centre again today and people were signing up, taking stickers in numbers. I was chatting to a couple of the organisers and they were telling me that about 1 in 4 or 5 of those signing up were saying they voted leave first time around.
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    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    This period will go down, of course, as TMay's finest hour. A principled woman doing her duty following the referendum result whilst causing the least amount of damage to the economy and our way of life.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,797
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:


    A second referendum is unlikely, in my view.

    There are two reasons. Firstly, it's a matter of timing. Barring an extension of article 50 (which is not solely within the UK's remit), there's not enough time left for us to complete the procedural steps necessary for a second referendum.

    Secondly, we'd need the agreement of our EU counterparties that we could return to the status quo ante. If they were agreeable (and I mean on an official basis, rather than warm noises from people like Tusk), then that would dramatically increase the likelihood. However, if you look at the Commission's position, they're using Brexit as an opportunity to look at removing

    Hopefully not too partisan for your taste.

    The only purpose of a second referendum is where Leavers realise their Brexit vote was a mistake and are looking for an out. That context changes things because the debate is no longer driven by Remainers versus Leavers but by Leave voters telling people that Brexit just won't work. There is no sign of Leavers actually changing their minds in great numbers so I basically agree with you.

    I am certain however that Brexit will be a total clusterfuck. The only semi workable Brexit outcome is participation in the EU system on a do as you are told basis. i just don't see the UK accepting instruction from a body that it has rejected in a vote with effectively no influence or say over things that matter to it.

    Brexit is undeliverable, yet SOMETHING has to be delivered. You don't get vacuums. Which is what makes the topic interesting, despite everything.
    No Brexit and free movement remaining the same as before the EU referendum is undeliverable too without a far right party surge
    Maybe but that doesn't help make any particular outcome more deliverable.
    It does confirm the Chequers Deal or a variant of it remains the best outcome
    The variant of Chequers that MIGHT be acceptable to the EU is SM for goods + CU + EU VAT area + ECJ oversight + agreed preferential treatment of EU nationals. Even that's not certain. Why not go the whole hog?
    As a work permits requirement for EU citizens on arrival and at least the opportunity to do pur own trade deals are non negotiable under May's red lines
    The first should be possible and the second will be necessary under any Brexit scenario (and will lead to a worse set of trade arrangements than we had previously). Thin gruel indeed for a decade of disruption, losing our say and influence and a major economic hit along the way.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    The membership will vote for Layla Moran.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It could do with most Tories + Labour Leave MPs like Stringer and Hoey and Field and Mann + the DUP voting for it. If the SNP abstain its passage would be guaranteed, it is not impossible Corbyn would abstain on a Deal or No Deal vote too

    SNP wouldn't abstain, they'd vote for a remain option and against any such deal or no deal referendum that didn't give Scotland a veto on the final choice (which would never happen so they'd vote against any referendum).

    It is impossible Corbyn would abstain on giving May a referendum she wants.
    Even if both the SNP and the vast majority of the Labour Party vote against a Deal or No Deal referendum proposed by May it could still pass with the support of the vast majority of Tory MPs (the ERG would vote for it as it included a No Deal option) and the DUP and 5 or 6 Labour Leave MPs much like the vote to Leave the Customs Union passed the Commons
    Currently the party is barely united on a notion of having a good potential deal but that is already fraying apart. The government has been winning votes with single-digit majorities it doesn't take many Remain-leaning Tory MPs to rebel to undo that wafer-thin majority. Once the rubicon of saying there will be no second referendum is crossed the Lords will have an overwhelming majority to put a Remain option in it. The Tory whips will not be able to prevent enough Tories rebelling at keeping that option. Afterall the Remain-backing Tory MPs will be saying its the public's choice and the PM will be the one giving the public the choice.

    Its one thing being compelled to leave because the last referendum settled the matter, its another thing entirely re-opening the issue with a new vote and expecting people who want to remain to stay signed up to deal or no deal.
    The 2016 referendum offered the Remain option, the Remain option lost.

    May can therefore validly say the only reason for another referendum would be to decide the nature of Leaving.

    Even despite a handful of diehard Tory Remain MPs like Soubry and Clarke and Wollaston voting to stay in the Customs Union the Commons passed a vote to leave the Customs Union helped by Labour Leave MPs voting with the government. The same would apply to a Deal or No Deal referendum vote.

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.
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    Morning thread on

    1) Cable

    or

    2) AV and pineapple on pizza

    Your call
  • Options

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1033455866014523392

    Who are the Lib Dem’s?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    John_M said:


    A second referendum is unlikely, in my view.

    There are two reasons. Firstly, it's a matter of timing. Barring an extension of article 50 (which is not solely within the UK's remit), there's not enough time left for us to complete the procedural steps necessary for a second referendum.

    Secondly, we'd need the agreement of our EU counterparties that we could return to the status quo ante. If they were agreeable (and I mean on an official basis, rather than warm noises from people like Tusk), then that would dramatically increase the likelihood. However, if you look at the Commission's position, they're using Brexit as an opportunity to look at removing

    Hopefully not too partisan for your taste.

    The only purpose of a second referendum is where Leavers realise their Brexit vote was a mistake and are looking for an out. That context changes things because the debate is
    Brexit is undeliverable, yet SOMETHING has to be delivered. You don't get vacuums. Which is what makes the topic interesting, despite everything.
    No Brexit and free movement remaining the same as before the EU referendum is undeliverable too without a far right party surge
    Maybe but that doesn't help make any particular outcome more deliverable.
    It does confirm the Chequers Deal or a variant of it remains the best outcome
    The variant of Chequers that MIGHT be acceptable to the EU is SM for goods + CU + EU VAT area + ECJ oversight + agreed preferential treatment of EU nationals. Even that's not certain. Why not go the whole hog?
    As a work permits requirement for EU citizens on arrival and at least the opportunity to do pur own trade deals are non negotiable under May's red lines
    The first should be possible and the second will be necessary under any Brexit scenario (and will lead to a worse set of trade arrangements than we had previously). Thin gruel indeed for a decade of disruption, losing our say and influence and a major economic hit along the way.
    Yet still respecting democracy unlike diehard Remainers and limiting the damage to our economy unlike diehard Leavers
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
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    Morning thread on

    1) Cable

    or

    2) AV and pineapple on pizza

    Your call

    Cables made out of pineapple?
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Fenman said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    The membership will vote for Layla Moran.
    They would be very foolish to go with someone with so little political experience. She has been an MP for 14 months with a majority of under 1000 and prior to that she had never held elected office - so she can't even point to a track record of her time as a councillor.

    She may have an interesting family heritage but that is hardly sufficient qualification to lead a national party that aspires to being in government.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Cable still says he would fight a 2019 general election but step down if there is no general election until 2022
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    tbh, this hardly counts as news does it? I thought he resigned (for all practical purposes) a year ago.

    'Minor party leader decides to stand down before the next election. Film at 11'.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:


    The only possible second referendum is on the Noel Edmunds basis - deal or no deal.
    The minute that a hypothetical Deal or Remain referendum is proposed, the PM will be replaced by her own party.

    You know I'm writing a thread for publication in next week which says she might be replaced as Tory Leader but remain PM.

    You know a PM needs the support of a majority of MPs.

    Say Mrs May proposes another referendum on Remain or Leave options, she's ousted as Tory Leader but 100 Tory MPs align with 200 Labour MPs and enough from the Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP to keep Mrs May as PM to ensure the legislation for the referendum is passed.
    The Ramsay MacDonald option.

    It ended so well for Labour and MacDonald...
    That's one of the examples I use.

    Mrs May will learn from history, the other example I'm using is the Kadima route.

    Hopefully with a better outlook for Mrs May than Ariel Sharon.
    Boris or Farage or Mogg or Davis as Netanyahu ?
    Of course it was Michael Collins who did the ultimate 'sell out' of the Treaty with the British to create the Free State but De Valera who refused to accept it and ended up leading Ireland for decades
    Only after De Valera split with his own IRA and accepted constitutional politics.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    edited August 2018
    John_M said:

    tbh, this hardly counts as news does it? I thought he resigned (for all practical purposes) a year ago.

    'Minor party leader decides to stand down before the next election. Film at 11'.
    I thought it had been effectively pre-announced when he became leader that he would only serve a couple of years, so even if that is jumped up somewhat it isn't by much.

    Edit: Ah, so he is still planning to make 2 years, by saying he would fight in a 2019 election, but wants to sort out the rule changes first.

    I know it is not unherd of in the world for party leaders not to be MPs, and the LDs are somewhat stifled for choice in that regard, but it still feels an awkward arrangement.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,391
    edited August 2018
    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    HYUFD said:

    Cable still says he would fight a 2019 general election but step down if there is no general election until 2022
    But what about one in 2020?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
  • Options

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal
    Not sure that she can sign anything without the HOC OK.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
  • Options

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    Really - you learn something everyday
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    Hardly something anyone will seek to emulate after that experiment...

    Given that the SNP manage to have a Party leader and a Leader of the MPs in the HOC, it is not a totally ludicrous proposition...

    Well actually it is - but it is something that another party has managed. Just.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
  • Options

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    Really - you learn something everyday
    It was for PM too, not just for Party Leader.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    "A successor who is not an MP"

    David Miliband your hour has come.....

    Actually - scrub that.

    Ed Balls, your hour has come.....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    50 people either frustrated to the point of exiting the party by the latest revelations, but not anything sooner, and/or the Brexit stance, but who are either too scared to have more than a couple leak the idea anonymously, or so disciplined they are all keeping super shtum about it until the moment it happens?

    Anyone offering odds on a Labour split like that?
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    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.
    Parliament can vote to ask the government to ask the EU for an extension to Article 50.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    That will be the same Theresa May who promised there would be no general election?

    Sucker!
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    First, Cable was only ever going to be an interim leader - everyone in the party knows it now and knew it when he took over from Tim Farron. I think the "plan" was for Jo Swinson to take over at the end of her maternity leave but the Party members I talk to now want a contest and many would quite like Layla Moran to stand.

    As for the mass membership idea, it's not a view that has any great support within the party. The idea of people becoming "registered supporters" without paying to join is one thing but no one is seriously suggesting such supporters could choose the new leader and nor is there any serious suggestion the leader shouldn't be an MP.

    The report is a little bit of old-fashioned mischief-making in my view but I do think the notion of a "registered supporter" is one the party will take forward but such supporters would have limited rights.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    Even more impressively, both of Macmillan's preferred successors were not MPs, although they were at least entitled to sit in Parliament.

    I would be doubtful about the idea of a leader outside the Commons. Plaid tried something similar a few years ago and they nearly didn't survive it. Admittedly that may have been because their choice was Dafydd Iwan but it still left too many people squabbling at the top - Elfyn Llwyd at Westminster, Ieuan Wyn Jones in Cardiff and Iwan officially in charge overall.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    It was the Baillie Vass in 1963.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.
    Parliament can vote to ask the government to ask the EU for an extension to Article 50.
    But they can’t compel the government to ask for an extension.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004



    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy

    Not really. The convention that the PM be a MP is simply that: a convention, not a necessity. As somebody else has pointed out, Alec Douglas Home is an example in living memory.

    Although can somebody jog my memory: can the Leader of the Opposition be a non-MP?
  • Options
    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    edited August 2018
    stodge said:

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    As for the mass membership idea, it's not a view that has any great support within the party. The idea of people becoming "registered supporters" without paying to join is one thing but no one is seriously suggesting such supporters could choose the new leader
    Worried Corbynites will swamp the process and get themselves a second party in the movement?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which if validated by a referendum the HOC could then affirm.

    A Deal may not get through the HOC due to the ERG, a Deal or No Deal referendum would get ERG support. If the referendum then endorses the Deal the HOC would have to approve it
  • Options
    See Van Rompuy is getting on the EU propoganda by claiming no deal will see Scotland leave the UK

    He can keep his nose out of UK matters. Just adds anger unnecessarily
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    He renounced his title 4 days after becoming PM and then stood for the by-election.

    If he had lost, he could, I guess, have tried to find another seat to try. But in reality, he would have quit as he couldn't be PM without a seat in Parliament.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    50 people either frustrated to the point of exiting the party by the latest revelations, but not anything sooner, and/or the Brexit stance, but who are either too scared to have more than a couple leak the idea anonymously, or so disciplined they are all keeping super shtum about it until the moment it happens?

    Anyone offering odds on a Labour split like that?
    I do not expect anything pre Brexit from labour mps
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.
    Parliament can vote to ask the government to ask the EU for an extension to Article 50.
    But they can’t compel the government to ask for an extension.
    They can, a Sovereign Parliament can direct the government.

    That's how Parliamentary democracy works.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,413
    edited August 2018

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    The Tories pulled that trick in 1963.
    As for the mass membership idea, it's not a view that has any great support within the party. The idea of people becoming "registered supporters" without paying to join is one thing but no one is seriously suggesting such supporters could choose the new leader
    Worried Corbynites will swamp the process and get themselves a second party in the movement?
    Or the far right or just anyone. Haven't they learnt from labour over open membership
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Parliament Act ensures the Lords can be overruled.

    Just writing that should ring alarm bells for you. The government will not have time to hang around waiting to invoke the Parliament Act.
    They will as May would not call a Deal or No Deal referendum until she had signed the Deal with the EU.

    She would then say the only alternative to not backing the continuation of the Deal is now No Deal to ensure enough Remainers also get behind the Chequers Deal to win the referendum
    Can't happen, she's promised the HOC a meaningful vote on the deal.
    Which in practice means deal or no deal. Parliament can’t compel the EU to negotiate.
    Parliament can vote to ask the government to ask the EU for an extension to Article 50.
    But they can’t compel the government to ask for an extension.
    They can, a Sovereign Parliament can direct the government.

    That's how Parliamentary democracy works.
    They cannot direct the EU though.

    The EU attitude will be there is the Deal, take it or Leave it!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004

    ...he couldn't be PM without a seat in Parliament...

    But he was. From 18 October 1963 to 7 November 1963 he was PM and not a MP. That's twenty days. It's not a long time, but it did happen.

  • Options



    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy

    I think it's a great idea. Cable is only leader because none of the other MPs wanted the job. If more people had been eligible to stand for the leadership then I'm sure we'd be in a better place than we've found ourselves in following the Cable coronation - and it appears that even Cable himself understands that. Hell... we were one man away from having nobody at all who was both eligible and willing to take on the role!!! I don't see any particular reason why the party leader has to be a member of the HOC. I'd like to choose from the best candidates possible. The person I would most prefer to be leader right now is an MP though, having said that (but that's besides the point).

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    "Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act."

    How would we notice?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    edited August 2018
    viewcode said:



    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy

    Not really. The convention that the PM be a MP is simply that: a convention, not a necessity. As somebody else has pointed out, Alec Douglas Home is an example in living memory.

    Although can somebody jog my memory: can the Leader of the Opposition be a non-MP?
    I'm sure someone could call themselves it and not be an MP, but I don't think they could officially be said leader, since they are formally the Leader of the Opposition in the Commons, I believe (even though the leader in the Lords is subordinate, clearly) and I believe legislation dictates that the LoTo means a member of at least one of the Houses.

    Not sure what the latest relevant statute might be but Erskine May makes reference to the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937 as setting the salary for the post, and that has been repealed and replaced, and the Ministerial and other salaries act 1975 defines LoTo as a member a House. Maybe something else more recent eclipses that?

    2(1)In this Act “Leader of the Opposition” means, in relation to either House of Parliament, that Member of that House who is for the time being the Leader in that House of the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons;
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Do we know if Corbyn has attacked the Egyptians for their blockade of Gaza or has he just singled out the Israelis?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Do we know if Corbyn has attacked the Egyptians for their blockade of Gaza or has he just singled out the Israelis?

    Guess.....
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    "Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act."

    How would we notice?
    He might notice the big drop in salary. He wouldn't be able to afford as many new jam jars.

    We would notice when he wasn't sat on the front bench. We would notice when he wasn't called to ask six questions submitted by Brenda in Staines at PMQs.

    He might claim to not need the trappings of status - but he would miss them.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    I was thinking it would be an elegant solution. Given that Corbyn cannot be removed as leader of the party, a workaround would be to make the post of "Leader of the Party" into a figurehead, with the power resting in the Leader of the PLP. Then the Leader of the PLP could do all the responsible bits and be future PM, and the Leader of the Party could bang on about principles and wotnot. Corbyn would be happy and we'd be relieved of the worry of a cray-cray with nukes.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    "Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act."

    How would we notice?
    How would he notice?
  • Options

    Do we know if Corbyn has attacked the Egyptians for their blockade of Gaza or has he just singled out the Israelis?

    See the US has withdrawn grants from the Palestinians. Has Corbyn gone a full on attack against the US yet
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    kle4 said:


    Worried Corbynites will swamp the process and get themselves a second party in the movement?

    About as worried as Conservatives are of former kippers joining their Party to get a say in the post-May leadership election.

  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    I was thinking it would be an elegant solution. Given that Corbyn cannot be removed as leader of the party, a workaround would be to make the post of "Leader of the Party" into a figurehead, with the power resting in the Leader of the PLP. Then the Leader of the PLP could do all the responsible bits and be future PM, and the Leader of the Party could bang on about principles and wotnot. Corbyn would be happy and we'd be relieved of the worry of a cray-cray with nukes.
    It would require Labour to make those changes to their constitution. And given the current membership, can you see that happening?
  • Options

    Do we know if Corbyn has attacked the Egyptians for their blockade of Gaza or has he just singled out the Israelis?

    Or Morocco's occupation of Western Sahara?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,723
    I am chuckling at the idea of entryists seeking to infiltrate the LibDems to influence a leadership contest. To get their hands on power - not.

    There's more chance of entryism in the WI.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:



    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy

    Not really. The convention that the PM be a MP is simply that: a convention, not a necessity. As somebody else has pointed out, Alec Douglas Home is an example in living memory.

    Although can somebody jog my memory: can the Leader of the Opposition be a non-MP?
    I'm sure someone could call themselves it and not be an MP, but I don't think they could officially be said leader, since they are formally the Leader of the Opposition in the Commons, I believe (even though the leader in the Lords is subordinate, clearly) and I believe legislation dictates that the LoTo means a member of at least one of the Houses.

    Not sure what the latest relevant statute might be but Erskine May makes reference to the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937 as setting the salary for the post, and that has been repealed and replaced, and the Ministerial and other salaries act 1975 defines LoTo as a member a House. Maybe something else more recent eclipses that?

    2(1)In this Act “Leader of the Opposition” means, in relation to either House of Parliament, that Member of that House who is for the time being the Leader in that House of the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons;
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27
    Ah, thank you. So the PM may not be a MP, but the LOTO must be a MP or a Lord.

    Pause.

    So that actually fucks up Vince's plan, then.

    :)
  • Options

    I am chuckling at the idea of entryists seeking to infiltrate the LibDems to influence a leadership contest. To get their hands on power - not.

    There's more chance of entryism in the WI.

    It it is free there are many who would do it to cause chaos
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    It would be up to the Speaker in theory, to decide who are the second and third parties in the HoC.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    stodge said:

    kle4 said:


    Worried Corbynites will swamp the process and get themselves a second party in the movement?

    About as worried as Conservatives are of former kippers joining their Party to get a say in the post-May leadership election.

    I was only joking, but from that response I assume you mean 'quite a bit'.
    viewcode said:



    I was thinking it would be an elegant solution. Given that Corbyn cannot be removed as leader of the party, a workaround would be to make the post of "Leader of the Party" into a figurehead, with the power resting in the Leader of the PLP. Then the Leader of the PLP could do all the responsible bits and be future PM, and the Leader of the Party could bang on about principles and wotnot. Corbyn would be happy and we'd be relieved of the worry of a cray-cray with nukes.

    I would think that sort of arrangement would suit Corbyn very well, and he would be free to concentrate on the bits of the job he is good at, and it is something some other countries do I believe (Poland?), albeit with roles reversed (that is, party leader has the power, pm really just a figurehead).

    Weren't there whispers that Corbyn wanted local parties to have elected leaders to tell local council groups what to do, or was that about having the members appoint group leaders on local councils?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    Do we know if Corbyn has attacked the Egyptians for their blockade of Gaza or has he just singled out the Israelis?

    Or Morocco's occupation of Western Sahara?
    Enforced with the largest minefields in the world.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    It would be up to the Speaker in theory, to decide who are the second and third parties in the HoC.
    It is based on numbers. The only time the Speaker would intervene would be in the event of a tie.
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    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    This thread becomes more surreal minute by minute
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:



    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy

    Not really. The convention that the PM be a MP is simply that: a convention, not a necessity. As somebody else has pointed out, Alec Douglas Home is an example in living memory.

    Although can somebody jog my memory: can the Leader of the Opposition be a non-MP?
    I'm sure someone could call themselves it and not be an MP, but I don't think they could officially be said leader, since they are formally the Leader of the Opposition in the Commons, I believe (even though the leader in the Lords is subordinate, clearly) and I believe legislation dictates that the LoTo means a member of at least one of the Houses.

    Not sure what the latest relevant statute might be but Erskine May makes reference to the Ministers of the Crown Act 1937 as setting the salary for the post, and that has been repealed and replaced, and the Ministerial and other salaries act 1975 defines LoTo as a member a House. Maybe something else more recent eclipses that?

    2(1)In this Act “Leader of the Opposition” means, in relation to either House of Parliament, that Member of that House who is for the time being the Leader in that House of the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons;
    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1975/27
    Ah, thank you. So the PM may not be a MP, but the LOTO must be a MP or a Lord.

    Pause.

    So that actually fucks up Vince's plan, then.

    :)
    *shrugs* I don't know, but at the least if they want to draw the opposition leader's salary they need to be an MP or Lord I think.

    Not going to be an issue for a future LD leader though, in or out of the Commons.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Lord Halifax was a serious contender to succeed Chamberlain in May 1940 and would have been supported by the Labour Opposition. In the end, he ruled himself out but there was no constitutional barrier to him becoming PM as a Peer.
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    On topic. Why?

    What’s caused such a move?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    justin124 said:

    Lord Halifax was a serious contender to succeed Chamberlain in May 1940 and would have been supported by the Labour Opposition. In the end, he ruled himself out but there was no constitutional barrier to him becoming PM as a Peer.

    I'm sure in recent years I recall an idea floated of a temporary PM from among the Peers to lead a national government or something, it's an interesting idea.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,004
    kle4 said:

    Not going to be an issue for a future LD leader though, in or out of the Commons.

    Fair point.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052

    On topic. Why?

    What’s caused such a move?

    My best guess is we are just getting closer to crunch time and it is all becoming much more real, plus the government's dithering finally became impossible to ignore in the middle of this year, which hardly inspired confidence.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Lord Halifax was a serious contender to succeed Chamberlain in May 1940 and would have been supported by the Labour Opposition. In the end, he ruled himself out but there was no constitutional barrier to him becoming PM as a Peer.

    I'm sure in recent years I recall an idea floated of a temporary PM from among the Peers to lead a national government or something, it's an interesting idea.
    In the early 1980s Lord Carrington was mentioned as a possible successor to Thatcher.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436

    viewcode said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1033365140211728384

    *Checks diary for the 7th of September, Mike's midway through his holiday*

    Let's see, that would be about 2.5 months since Swinson had her son I believe.

    Could work.
    You might be thinking too small. The timing fits with other political developments too.
    If they're announcing a dozen Labour defectors, then I still think Swinson should head the new Alliance.
    David Herdson was right this morning, a defection needs to be 50 MPs as a minimum, but ideally 150 that makes the Official Opposition.
    Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act. He would lose his platform instantly. It would be delicious. If very unlikely to happen.
    Is it legally necessary that the Leader of the Opposition has to be the Leader of the Labour Party (when the opposition is Labour)? Can't the PLP vote in their own Leader ("Leader of the Caucus of the PLP") and have him/her be LOTO?
    I imagine it is convention rather than a legal process. LOTO is the leader of the second largest party in the Commons. And I think it is up to whichever party that is to determine who their leader is by way of their own rules and regulations. This wasn't something covered in my constitutional law tutorials - as no party would get itself into such a mess, surely?!
    "Stripping Corbyn of his position as LOTO would be a really significant act."

    How would we notice?
    How would he notice?
    Sky news wouldn't be outside his house every morning asking why he was an anti-semite?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    Its certainly been suggested that, in the event of the PM resigning with immediate effect, Lord Hague or Lord Howard could be a caretaker PM until someone is elected to the post of party leader.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2018

    On topic. Why?

    What’s caused such a move?

    The big movement came in July and August suggesting some working class Leavers thought the Chequers Deal made too many compromises to make Brexit worthwhile but would back No Deal hard Brexit (the reverse is likely the case with most middle class voters for whom Chequers Deal Brexit would be better than No Deal hard Brexit).

    Though even post Chequers Deal more working class voters still back Leave than Remain overall

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    This period will go down, of course, as TMay's finest hour. A principled woman doing her duty following the referendum result whilst causing the least amount of damage to the economy and our way of life.

    Lol. Bit busy this evening, but When we have time we will explain to you what BINO is, and how it’s architects will be remembered. In the meantime, two words.

    Vassal.

    State.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,436
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    Its certainly been suggested that, in the event of the PM resigning with immediate effect, Lord Hague or Lord Howard could be a caretaker PM until someone is elected to the post of party leader.
    One of the quirks of the British constitution is that there is always a PM.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,052
    edited August 2018

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    Its certainly been suggested that, in the event of the PM resigning with immediate effect, Lord Hague or Lord Howard could be a caretaker PM until someone is elected to the post of party leader.
    One of the quirks of the British constitution is that there is always a PM.
    Not quite always, surely? This isn't a 'The king is dead; long live the king' situation, we are at least without a PM in the time between the monarch accepting a resignation/taking away the role and the arrival of the new person to accept the role from the monarch.

    Endpedantmode>
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    Well I wouldn't use the c word but I endorse the views of Robert Webb

    https://twitter.com/arobertwebb/status/1033444449353916416
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    This period will go down, of course, as TMay's finest hour. A principled woman doing her duty following the referendum result whilst causing the least amount of damage to the economy and our way of life.

    Lol. Bit busy this evening, but When we have time we will explain to you what BINO is, and how it’s architects will be remembered. In the meantime, two words.

    Vassal.

    State.
    Chequers Deal still technically ends free movement and allows UK free trade deals while getting a Deal to protect the economy.

    It is the best middle ground between diehard Remainers who want to reverse Brexit or stay in the single market with free movement (which really would be BINO) and diehard Leavers who want hard Brexit and No Deal with the EU at all
  • Options

    Morning thread on

    1) Cable

    or

    2) AV and pineapple on pizza

    Your call

    My call? :)

    “Exodus 1947. Can we learn about behaviour of the next Labour government by examining behaviour of a previous one?”
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    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    Its certainly been suggested that, in the event of the PM resigning with immediate effect, Lord Hague or Lord Howard could be a caretaker PM until someone is elected to the post of party leader.
    House of Unlected Has-Beens :lol:
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Am I reading Cable right, a new leader of the liberals can be anyone even with no seat in the HOC

    They are loopy
    Why? Create a second post of Leader of the parliamentary party and automatically make them deputy leader (or vice versa if an MP wins the leader vote)
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyone know what would have happened if Alec Douglas-Home had lost the Kinross and Western Perthshire by-election?

    End of his Premiership or would he continued on regardless?

    So far as I know, there is no actual constitutional requirement for Ministers including Prime Ministers to be members of Parliament. Wilson had a Foreign Secretary who was not an MP.

    However, in this particular case given he was facing a divided and rebellious PCP already deeply unhappy they had been told not one of them was up to being Prime Minister and a Labour Opposition tearing chunks out of the democratic process being subverted by a 14th Earl, I think Home would have had to resign.

    Not that that was ever likely to happen with that seat at that time.
    There is no constitutional requirement. Like much of the UK constitution, the PM being an MP is a convention that has evolved over time.

    It is not inconceivable that the Queen could ask a Lord to attempt to form a government through commanding the House, but seems very unlikely.

    Having said that, we are in strange times.
    Its certainly been suggested that, in the event of the PM resigning with immediate effect, Lord Hague or Lord Howard could be a caretaker PM until someone is elected to the post of party leader.
    One of the quirks of the British constitution is that there is always a PM.
    Not quite always, surely? This isn't a 'The king is dead; long live the king' situation, we are at least without a PM in the time between the monarch accepting a resignation/taking away the role and the arrival of the new person to accept the role from the monarch.

    Endpedantmode>
    Oooo there might be a political thriller in this...

    Outgoing PM goes to the Palace to resign, incoming PM is killed in a car crash on their way to accept the Monarch's commission to form a new government.

    Who rules? Quick, get Michael Dobbs to write it...
This discussion has been closed.