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+1John_M said:
UK agriculture isn't just about making money. It's stewardship too. Our tourism industry depends directly and indirectly on our beautiful landscapes. There's probably a middle ground to be found - I know Gove is keen.Elliot said:
Lots of inefficient New Zealand farmers went to the wall too. They left the remaining sector leaner and fitter.Foxy said:
Cheaper land, shorter winters meaning no winter feed required, reliable rainfall, few planning restraints, fewer requirements for conservation and a focus on an expanding Middle East market for Halal beef and Lamb. NZ is simply the best agricultural land on the planet.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and even without subsidies they can still export. Funny that.RobD said:
Isn’t that what NZ does? And they don’t even have argicultural subsidies.Philip_Thompson said:
Fantastic! Let them compete on a level playing field like Kiwi farmers do and cut food costs for everyone else.surby said:
Wait until we are free after Independence. Then we can import cheap fruits from anywhere and sod our farmers.OchEye said:another_richard said:
So why don't they recruit more workers ?Scott_P said:
From the Times todayanother_richard said:Today's Tesco Strawberry score is a ten:
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Norfolk
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
The highest score for about three weeks.
A shortage of fruit pickers and political dithering has led to an “appalling” amount of Scottish produce being left to rot, MPs have been told.
Politicians travelled to Scottish fruit farms yesterday to investigate a looming crisis that could worsen if immigration rules are tightened after Brexit.
MPs also visited West Jordanstone Farm in Alyth, where the Marshall family has already had to leave crops to rot due to a lack of staff to pick them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/fruit-rots-on-farms-as-eu-workers-stay-away-and-mps-dither-wcqxwg5wl
Win, win.
A lot of marginal British farmers, particularly hill and dairy farmers would go to the wall if there were no subsidies. Cheaper imported foods, but no longer the la ndscape that we know.0 -
New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%0 -
May has been allowed to negotiate a transition deal until the end of 2020. If that has not produced a FTA by then I know through a recent discussion with a Tory MP the plan is to topple her and replace her with a hard Brexiteer before the next general election in 2022.williamglenn said:
May is committed to all sorts of things that aren't happening so why you think that is the determining factor is a mystery. So far May has a plan to extend full EU membership without a say until 2021, and a request to discuss keeping parts of the single market after that, which is likely to end up being negotiated in the direction of the EEA anyway.HYUFD said:
As is your unobsession with him as to be blunt he and his allies are probably your only route back to the single market let alone the EU given Corbyn and May's commitment to Brexit and leaving the EEAwilliamglenn said:
We haven't left the single market yet and we don't have a credible plan to leave it.HYUFD said:We are not going to be 'begging to be readmitted' and subscribe ever more to EU dictatorship, the Euro and Schengen without even the whisper of complaint on anything for all eternity. I cannot believe even William Glenn would be so stupid as to believe that.
What we may do is see someone like Umunna win on a platform to rejoin the single market the election after next if immigration has fallen a bit and the economy is down a bit and voters are willing to put the economy rather than immigration control first as they were not in the referendum.
Your obsession with Chuka Umunna is bizarre.
Are you blind to the increasing number of Tory figures calling for us to stay in the EEA?
Clearly you are blind to the fact the vast majority of Tory voters and members oppose staying in the EEA and over 90% of Tory MPs voted to leave the EEA in the Commons while almost half of Labour MPs defied Corbyn to vote to stay in the EEA led by Chuka Umunna0 -
Similar to the polls right before June 23rd 2016williamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%
0 -
YouGov poll for the Sunday Times
Con 38 (+2)
Lab 39 (-2)
0 -
Gold Standard!TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov poll for the Sunday Times
Con 38 (+2)
Lab 39 (-2)
0 -
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Arable monoculture - not beautifulJohn_M said:
UK agriculture isn't just about making money. It's stewardship too. Our tourism industry depends directly and indirectly on our beautiful landscapes. There's probably a middle ground to be found - I know Gove is keen.Elliot said:
Lots of inefficient New Zealand farmers went to the wall too. They left the remaining sector leaner and fitter.Foxy said:
Cheaper land, shorter winters meaning no winter feed required, reliable rainfall, few planning restraints, fewer requirements for conservation and a focus on an expanding Middle East market for Halal beef and Lamb. NZ is simply the best agricultural land on the planet.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and even without subsidies they can still export. Funny that.RobD said:
Isn’t that what NZ does? And they don’t even have argicultural subsidies.Philip_Thompson said:
Fantastic! Let them compete on a level playing field like Kiwi farmers do and cut food costs for everyone else.surby said:
Wait until we are free after Independence. Then we can import cheap fruits from anywhere and sod our farmers.OchEye said:another_richard said:
So why don't they recruit more workers ?Scott_P said:
From the Times todayanother_richard said:Today's Tesco Strawberry score is a ten:
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Norfolk
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
The highest score for about three weeks.
A shortage of fruit pickers and political dithering has led to an “appalling” amount of Scottish produce being left to rot, MPs have been told.
Politicians travelled to Scottish fruit farms yesterday to investigate a looming crisis that could worsen if immigration rules are tightened after Brexit.
MPs also visited West Jordanstone Farm in Alyth, where the Marshall family has already had to leave crops to rot due to a lack of staff to pick them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/fruit-rots-on-farms-as-eu-workers-stay-away-and-mps-dither-wcqxwg5wl
Win, win.
A lot of marginal British farmers, particularly hill and dairy farmers would go to the wall if there were no subsidies. Cheaper imported foods, but no longer the la ndscape that we know.
'Improved' grassland - not beautiful
Overgrazed uplands - not beautiful
Conifer plantations - not beautiful
We are a hell of a long way from a middle ground.0 -
The UK will maintain farm subsidies, the Tories are run by the Turnip taliban, not Free Traders.John_M said:
UK agriculture isn't just about making money. It's stewardship too. Our tourism industry depends directly and indirectly on our beautiful landscapes. There's probably a middle ground to be found - I know Gove is keen.Elliot said:
Lots of inefficient New Zealand farmers went to the wall too. They left the remaining sector leaner and fitter.Foxy said:
Cheaper land, shorter winters meaning no winter feed required, reliable rainfall, few planning restraints, fewer requirements for conservation and a focus on an expanding Middle East market for Halal beef and Lamb. NZ is simply the best agricultural land on the planet.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and even without subsidies they can still export. Funny that.RobD said:
Isn’t that what NZ does? And they don’t even have argicultural subsidies.Philip_Thompson said:
Fantastic! Let them compete on a level playing field like Kiwi farmers do and cut food costs for everyone else.surby said:
Wait until we are free after Independence. Then we can import cheap fruits from anywhere and sod our farmers.OchEye said:another_richard said:
So why don't they recruit more workers ?Scott_P said:
From the Times todayanother_richard said:Today's Tesco Strawberry score is a ten:
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Norfolk
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
The highest score for about three weeks.
A shortage of fruit pickers and political dithering has led to an “appalling” amount of Scottish produce being left to rot, MPs have been told.
Politicians travelled to Scottish fruit farms yesterday to investigate a looming crisis that could worsen if immigration rules are tightened after Brexit.
MPs also visited West Jordanstone Farm in Alyth, where the Marshall family has already had to leave crops to rot due to a lack of staff to pick them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/fruit-rots-on-farms-as-eu-workers-stay-away-and-mps-dither-wcqxwg5wl
Win, win.
A lot of marginal British farmers, particularly hill and dairy farmers would go to the wall if there were no subsidies. Cheaper imported foods, but no longer the la ndscape that we know.
Theresa is not going t live out her retirement without fields of wheat for her morning run.0 -
If Boris was Tory leader the polls would be tied.
If Hunt, Javid, or Gove were leading the party the Tories would be 10-12 points behind.0 -
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised0 -
So a MoE improvement over May?TheScreamingEagles said:If Boris was Tory leader the polls would be tied.
If Hunt, Javid, or Gove were leading the party the Tories would be 10-12 points behind.0 -
There's lots of polling on the front page of the Sunday Times, but I'm tired and can't be arsed to go through it all, so you'll have to do it yourselves.0
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Though any Leave voter reticence has surely disappeared now that Leavers know they were in the majority.RobD said:
Similar to the polls right before June 23rd 2016williamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%0 -
That's not ture. Dole took from both Reps and Dems.rpjs said:
And put Clinton into the White House. It was the GOP vote that Perot split, not the Democratic.HYUFD said:
A Trump v Sanders ticket would be the most polarised since Nixon v McGovern or Johnson v Goldwater, in fact even more so as Nixon and Johnson at least made some nods to the centrist establishment unlike Trump or Sanders. If ever there was a condition for a centrist candidate it would be that.rpjs said:
I doubt there’d be a third-party ticket. Third parties never win nationally in the US. All they can do is nobble one or other of the two main parties.HYUFD said:Hickenlooper may run but he has little chance of getting the nomination with Democratic primary voters looking to pick a left liberal populist to take on Trump like Sanders or Warren after Hillary's defeat in 2016 on a centrist platform.
Though if it does end up Trump v Sanders/Warren I could see Hickenlooper on a centrist third party ticket with Kasich (who could again challenge Trump in the GOP primaries) focused on moderates and independents. That is where his real value lies, not for the Democratic nomination
Don't forget either Perot got 19% as a third party candidate in 19920 -
I have no idea where you live, but Somerset is beautiful, from the Levels to the Quantocks and Blackdowns. I've little time for the agri-barons of East Anglia, but I have plenty of it for our upland farmers.SandyRentool said:
Arable monoculture - not beautifulJohn_M said:
UK agriculture isn't just about making money. It's stewardship too. Our tourism industry depends directly and indirectly on our beautiful landscapes. There's probably a middle ground to be found - I know Gove is keen.Elliot said:
Lots of inefficient New Zealand farmers went to the wall too. They left the remaining sector leaner and fitter.Foxy said:Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and even without subsidies they can still export. Funny that.RobD said:
Isn’t that what NZ does? And they don’t even have argicultural subsidies.Philip_Thompson said:
Fantastic! Let them compete on a level playing field like Kiwi farmers do and cut food costs for everyone else.surby said:
Wait until we are free after Independence. Then we can import cheap fruits from anywhere and sod our farmers.OchEye said:another_richard said:
So why don't they recruit more workers ?Scott_P said:
From the Times todayanother_richard said:Today's Tesco Strawberry score is a ten:
Aberdeenshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Norfolk
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
The highest score for about three weeks.
A shortage of fruit pickers and political dithering has led to an “appalling” amount of Scottish produce being left to rot, MPs have been told.
Politicians travelled to Scottish fruit farms yesterday to investigate a looming crisis that could worsen if immigration rules are tightened after Brexit.
MPs also visited West Jordanstone Farm in Alyth, where the Marshall family has already had to leave crops to rot due to a lack of staff to pick them.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/fruit-rots-on-farms-as-eu-workers-stay-away-and-mps-dither-wcqxwg5wl
Win, win.
'Improved' grassland - not beautiful
Overgrazed uplands - not beautiful
Conifer plantations - not beautiful
We are a hell of a long way from a middle ground.0 -
Tory policy is not to seek an FTA but an Association Agreement.HYUFD said:
May has been allowed to negotiate a transition deal until the end of 2020. If that has not produced a FTA by then I know through a recent discussion with a Tory MP the plan is to topple her and replace her with a hard Brexiteer before the next general election in 2022.williamglenn said:
May is committed to all sorts of things that aren't happening so why you think that is the determining factor is a mystery. So far May has a plan to extend full EU membership without a say until 2021, and a request to discuss keeping parts of the single market after that, which is likely to end up being negotiated in the direction of the EEA anyway.HYUFD said:
As is your unobsession with him as to be blunt he and his allies are probably your only route back to the single market let alone the EU given Corbyn and May's commitment to Brexit and leaving the EEAwilliamglenn said:
We haven't left the single market yet and we don't have a credible plan to leave it.HYUFD said:We are not going to be 'begging to be readmitted' and subscribe ever more to EU dictatorship, the Euro and Schengen without even the whisper of complaint on anything for all eternity. I cannot believe even William Glenn would be so stupid as to believe that.
What we may do is see someone like Umunna win on a platform to rejoin the single market the election after next if immigration has fallen a bit and the economy is down a bit and voters are willing to put the economy rather than immigration control first as they were not in the referendum.
Your obsession with Chuka Umunna is bizarre.
Are you blind to the increasing number of Tory figures calling for us to stay in the EEA?
Clearly you are blind to the fact the vast majority of Tory voters and members oppose staying in the EEA and over 90% of Tory MPs voted to leave the EEA in the Commons while almost half of Labour MPs defied Corbyn to vote to stay in the EEA led by Chuka Umunna0 -
0
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So that’s the voters, the EU, the ERG, and parliament who don’t like the deal proposed.
What could possibly go wrong?0 -
No, I think he wants another go at the white paper.Foxy said:
So DD wants to withdraw A50?williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020771673539338240
A courageous decision, ex-minister!0 -
Of course, but the EU 27 could easily cover it if needed.RobD said:
But what percentage of the EU budget is it? Probably a fair bit bigger than 0.25%.Benpointer said:
It's <0.25% of the EU GDP; I think they'll manage somehow. Time to let go of 'they need us more than we need them'.</p>Mortimer said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/21/dominic-raab-britainwill-refuse-pay-39-billion-divorce-bill/
What’s that coming over the Belgian hill, is it a massive hole in your budget? Might focus some minds.0 -
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised0 -
And even that is not EEAwilliamglenn said:
Tory policy is not to seek an FTA but an Association Agreement.HYUFD said:
May has been allowed to negotiate a transition deal until the end of 2020. If that has not produced a FTA by then I know through a recent discussion with a Tory MP the plan is to topple her and replace her with a hard Brexiteer before the next general election in 2022.williamglenn said:
May is committed to all sorts of things that aren't happening so why you think that is the determining factor is a mystery. So far May has a plan to extend full EU membership without a say until 2021, and a request to discuss keeping parts of the single market after that, which is likely to end up being negotiated in the direction of the EEA anyway.HYUFD said:
As is your unobsession with him as to be blunt he and his allies are probably your only route back to the single market let alone the EU given Corbyn and May's commitment to Brexit and leaving the EEAwilliamglenn said:
We haven't left the single market yet and we don't have a credible plan to leave it.HYUFD said:We are not going to be 'begging to be readmitted' and subscribe ever more to EU dictatorship, the Euro and Schengen without even the whisper of complaint on anything for all eternity. I cannot believe even William Glenn would be so stupid as to believe that.
What we may do is see someone like Umunna win on a platform to rejoin the single market the election after next if immigration has fallen a bit and the economy is down a bit and voters are willing to put the economy rather than immigration control first as they were not in the referendum.
Your obsession with Chuka Umunna is bizarre.
Are you blind to the increasing number of Tory figures calling for us to stay in the EEA?
Clearly you are blind to the fact the vast majority of Tory voters and members oppose staying in the EEA and over 90% of Tory MPs voted to leave the EEA in the Commons while almost half of Labour MPs defied Corbyn to vote to stay in the EEA led by Chuka Umunna0 -
In that case, he needs to stop the clock.RobD said:
No, I think he wants another go at the white paper.Foxy said:
So DD wants to withdraw A50?williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020771673539338240
A courageous decision, ex-minister!
Indeed, I suspect withdrawal of A50 is the Remain lite that sneaks into the #peoplesvote0 -
Does he? I thought DExEU had worked on a plan that May had dismissed?Foxy said:
In that case, he needs to stop the clock.RobD said:
No, I think he wants another go at the white paper.Foxy said:
So DD wants to withdraw A50?williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020771673539338240
A courageous decision, ex-minister!
Indeed, I suspect withdrawal of A50 is the Remain lite that sneaks into the #peoplesvote0 -
When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.0 -
not least because it is increments over many years.Benpointer said:
Of course, but the EU 27 could easily cover it if needed.RobD said:
But what percentage of the EU budget is it? Probably a fair bit bigger than 0.25%.Benpointer said:
It's <0.25% of the EU GDP; I think they'll manage somehow. Time to let go of 'they need us more than we need them'.</p>Mortimer said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/21/dominic-raab-britainwill-refuse-pay-39-billion-divorce-bill/
What’s that coming over the Belgian hill, is it a massive hole in your budget? Might focus some minds.0 -
He needs to get cabinet and parliamentary approval, and the small matter of deposing the PM, first.RobD said:
Does he? I thought DExEU had worked on a plan that May had dismissed?Foxy said:
In that case, he needs to stop the clock.RobD said:
No, I think he wants another go at the white paper.Foxy said:
So DD wants to withdraw A50?williamglenn said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1020771673539338240
A courageous decision, ex-minister!
Indeed, I suspect withdrawal of A50 is the Remain lite that sneaks into the #peoplesvote0 -
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised0 -
When it comes to paying up, nothing is simple in the EU. Even the "EU army" proposal is an exercise in German money saving rather than actual defence.Benpointer said:
Of course, but the EU 27 could easily cover it if needed.RobD said:
But what percentage of the EU budget is it? Probably a fair bit bigger than 0.25%.Benpointer said:
It's <0.25% of the EU GDP; I think they'll manage somehow. Time to let go of 'they need us more than we need them'.</p>Mortimer said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/21/dominic-raab-britainwill-refuse-pay-39-billion-divorce-bill/
What’s that coming over the Belgian hill, is it a massive hole in your budget? Might focus some minds.0 -
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May0 -
Trying to annex part of the UK?FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
At least you admitted you were a fanatic earlier. I guess you seem to recognise just how far up the EU's arse you really are.0 -
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax0 -
Abyssinia is on the phone. It'd like a word with you.Philip_Thompson said:Fascism isn't hard right.
0 -
Significantly more challenging than covering 0.25% of their budget.Benpointer said:
Of course, but the EU 27 could easily cover it if needed.RobD said:
But what percentage of the EU budget is it? Probably a fair bit bigger than 0.25%.Benpointer said:
It's <0.25% of the EU GDP; I think they'll manage somehow. Time to let go of 'they need us more than we need them'.</p>Mortimer said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/21/dominic-raab-britainwill-refuse-pay-39-billion-divorce-bill/
What’s that coming over the Belgian hill, is it a massive hole in your budget? Might focus some minds.0 -
A one percent boost for Boris is pathetic given his name recognition. He career is finished.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May0 -
While our government has just reneged on a second of three points agreed back in December. We are going backwards, and proving less able to keep our word by the day.FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised0 -
You repeatedly post polling 'information' that is so easily disprovable.HYUFD said:
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/6682245276047810560 -
38% would vote for a new right of centre pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two brighter spots for Remainers is voters would vote to Remain rather than Leave with No Deal but by only 54% to 46%. A third of voters would also vote for a new anti-Brexit centrist party.0 -
When people jump off a cliff with the nasty consequences they were warned about, I tend to blame the people jumping off, and not the cliff. Apparently that's a fanatical opinion.MaxPB said:
Trying to annex part of the UK?FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
At least you admitted you were a fanatic earlier. I guess you seem to recognise just how far up the EU's arse you really are.0 -
If only 38% would vote for such a party on paper, before they've seen the kind of people who would fill its ranks, it doesn't suggest it's a winning formula.HYUFD said:38% would vote for a new pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.
0 -
Yes, and Barnier is jumping with them and you'll be right behind, feet sticking out of his arse.FF43 said:
When people jump off a cliff with the nasty consequences they were warned about, I tend to blame the people jumping off, and not the cliff. Apparently that's a fanatical opinion.MaxPB said:
Trying to annex part of the UK?FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
At least you admitted you were a fanatic earlier. I guess you seem to recognise just how far up the EU's arse you really are.0 -
Blair got 36% in 2005 as did Cameron in 2015 when they won overall majorities, 2% less than this hypothetical new pro Brexit Partywilliamglenn said:
If only 38% would vote for such a party on paper, before they've seen the kind of people who would fill its ranks, it doesn't suggest it's a winning formula.HYUFD said:38% would vote for a new pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.
0 -
Boris is now the ONLY Tory who is not behind Corbyn in the pollswilliamglenn said:
A one percent boost for Boris is pathetic given his name recognition. He career is finished.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May0 -
Hypothetical being the operative word. To me it suggests that 38% is around the true level of support for Brexit at the moment.HYUFD said:
Blair got 36% in 2005 as did Cameron in 2015 when they won overall majorities, 2% less than this hypothetical new pro Brexit Partywilliamglenn said:
If only 38% would vote for such a party on paper, before they've seen the kind of people who would fill its ranks, it doesn't suggest it's a winning formula.HYUFD said:38% would vote for a new pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.
0 -
I do not need to answer that. He has not attempted a sensible compromiseFF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
But to remainers he is faultless and beyond reproach0 -
If the latter is true then it won't happen. One thing everyone should have learned over the last couple of years is that all of the power in the EU lies in the commission, they are a law unto themselves and don't even answer to the council which is made up of democratically elected leaders.SeanT said:
The bizarre conclusion to all this is that the ideal outcome, for Britons, is Boris becoming PM and somehow, like Nixon going to China, as the chief Brexiteer, and with a bit of swagger, he can negotiate a new membership of the EU, where they finally yield a bit of ground on FoM, and we Stay.HYUFD said:
38% would vote for a new right of centre pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two brighter spots for Remainers is voters would vote to Remain rather than Leave with No Deal but by only 54% to 46%. A third of voters would also vote for a new centrist party.
I suspect Macron and Merkel would prefer this. The EU Commission would hate it.0 -
That is not disprovable at all, Major matched Heseltine in terms of hypothetical Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll which measured that of him. Your poll you have just posted only measured Tory voteshare under Heseltine and Thatcher. It was only once it was clear Major could beat Kinnock as Heseltine could and Thatcher could not his leadership prospects soared.TheScreamingEagles said:
You repeatedly post polling 'information' that is so easily disprovable.HYUFD said:
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/668224527604781056
All the polling tonight is head to heads of Tory voteshare under different hypothetical Tory leaders against Corbyn0 -
Which would result in @FF43 surviving as Barnier absorbs the impact.MaxPB said:
Yes, and Barnier is jumping with them and you'll be right behind, feet sticking out of his arse.FF43 said:
When people jump off a cliff with the nasty consequences they were warned about, I tend to blame the people jumping off, and not the cliff. Apparently that's a fanatical opinion.MaxPB said:
Trying to annex part of the UK?FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
At least you admitted you were a fanatic earlier. I guess you seem to recognise just how far up the EU's arse you really are.
Pause.
I may have treated your analogy too seriously.0 -
The S Times headline is a bit of a stretch. The "far right" thing is that 24% say they would support a nationalist anti-Islam party - but there's no evidence that this is different from the past, and this type of "If X was available would you support it?" question is notoriously dodgy. Boris's rating is as others have said probably name recognition, though it's fair to note that the near-universal disdain for him in Westminster hasn't really rubbed off on the wider public.TheScreamingEagles said:
The report that Bannon is trying to raise £10m from US and UK sources for a new right-wing patty, possibly led by Farage, is potentially more serious. But the operative word is "trying".0 -
Strange ! I never talked that way, even when I was a teenager. People are different, I guess.MaxPB said:
Yes, and Barnier is jumping with them and you'll be right behind, feet sticking out of his arse.FF43 said:
When people jump off a cliff with the nasty consequences they were warned about, I tend to blame the people jumping off, and not the cliff. Apparently that's a fanatical opinion.MaxPB said:
Trying to annex part of the UK?FF43 said:
In.what way has Barnier acted in bad faith ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Barnier is just as bad, if not worse. History will not be kind to those involved in a hard Brexit on both sidesFF43 said:
In practice, yes. Nominally this money is what we owe the EU. The actual quid pro quo agreed last December is a two year standstill transition while we negotiate the trade deal. If we don't agree the NI backstop the deal falls including both the money and the transition. But Raab is negotiating in bad faith by putting previously agreed points back into play. It doesn't help our negotiating position.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a big statement but of course paying the EU anything without a deal is politically impossiblesurby said:
I thought Britain always paid on commitments it had signed up to. So I take it, British citizens having worked for the EU, will not be paid their pension?williamglenn said:
Stakes just raised
At least you admitted you were a fanatic earlier. I guess you seem to recognise just how far up the EU's arse you really are.
0 -
For months, if not years, Michael Heseltine was the only Tory who could win the 1991/1992 general election according to the polls, just like Boris.HYUFD said:
That is not disprovable at all, Major matched Heseltine in terms of hypothetical Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll which measured that of him. Your poll you have just posted only measured Tory voteshare under Heseltine and Thatcher. It was only once it was clear Major could beat Kinnock as Heseltine could and Thatcher could not his leadership prospects soared.TheScreamingEagles said:
You repeatedly post polling 'information' that is so easily disprovable.HYUFD said:
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/668224527604781056
All the polling tonight is head to head of Tory voteshare under different hypothetical Tory leaders against Corbyn
Hezza failed to win the leadership, that's the point I'm making.0 -
We can but hope, Boris made Brexit now it seems only he can save the Tories, whether he could get a stay in the EU/EEA with new FOM restrictions is debatable but he may have a better chance of doing so than Cameron or May didSeanT said:
The bizarre conclusion to all this is that the ideal outcome, for Britons, is Boris becoming PM and somehow, like Nixon going to China, as the chief Brexiteer, and with a bit of swagger, he can negotiate a new membership of the EU, where they finally yield a bit of ground on FoM, and we Stay.HYUFD said:
38% would vote for a new right of centre pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two brighter spots for Remainers is voters would vote to Remain rather than Leave with No Deal but by only 54% to 46%. A third of voters would also vote for a new centrist party.
I suspect Macron and Merkel would prefer this. The EU Commission would hate it.0 -
FoM still looks eminently fudgeable. From everything they've done since 2010, up to the stats this week, no-one in government wants to curb immigration or FoM -- but Brexit means they have to pretend they want the right to do so.SeanT said:
The bizarre conclusion to all this is that the ideal outcome, for Britons, is Boris becoming PM and somehow, like Nixon going to China, as the chief Brexiteer, and with a bit of swagger, he can negotiate a new membership of the EU, where they finally yield a bit of ground on FoM, and we Stay.HYUFD said:
38% would vote for a new right of centre pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two brighter spots for Remainers is voters would vote to Remain rather than Leave with No Deal but by only 54% to 46%. A third of voters would also vote for a new centrist party.
I suspect Macron and Merkel would prefer this. The EU Commission would hate it.0 -
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind0 -
Bring it on !HYUFD said:
38% would vote for a new right of centre pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Two brighter spots for Remainers is voters would vote to Remain rather than Leave with No Deal but by only 54% to 46%. A third of voters would also vote for a new anti-Brexit centrist party.0 -
Until a few weeks back, you could not get a cigareete paper between HYUFD and May. Now fragrance comes out of Boris' arse.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind0 -
No as on that basis given a new centrist anti Brexit Party gets only 33% that would suggest Brexit wins by 5% on that basiswilliamglenn said:
Hypothetical being the operative word. To me it suggests that 38% is around the true level of support for Brexit at the moment.HYUFD said:
Blair got 36% in 2005 as did Cameron in 2015 when they won overall majorities, 2% less than this hypothetical new pro Brexit Partywilliamglenn said:
If only 38% would vote for such a party on paper, before they've seen the kind of people who would fill its ranks, it doesn't suggest it's a winning formula.HYUFD said:38% would vote for a new pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.
0 -
I had dinner with Sir Don McCullin recently.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
-
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind0 -
Perhaps they should have asked people if they'd support a hypothetical Couldn't Give A Damn About Brexit Party.HYUFD said:
No as on that basis given a new centrist anti Brexit Party gets only 33% that would suggest Brexit wins by 5% on that basiswilliamglenn said:
Hypothetical being the operative word. To me it suggests that 38% is around the true level of support for Brexit at the moment.HYUFD said:
Blair got 36% in 2005 as did Cameron in 2015 when they won overall majorities, 2% less than this hypothetical new pro Brexit Partywilliamglenn said:
If only 38% would vote for such a party on paper, before they've seen the kind of people who would fill its ranks, it doesn't suggest it's a winning formula.HYUFD said:38% would vote for a new pro Brexit party, 24% for a new hard right anti immigration, anti Islam party.
0 -
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1020785144557461505?s=19
But if this was the case, then he couldn't have been meeting with MPs, as they were voting...
Sounds like bollocks to me.0 -
ONLY as Major showed he could also beat Kinnock in the polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
For months, if not years, Michael Heseltine was the only Tory who could win the 1991/1992 general election according to the polls, just like Boris.HYUFD said:
That is not disprovable at all, Major matched Heseltine in terms of hypothetical Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll which measured that of him. Your poll you have just posted only measured Tory voteshare under Heseltine and Thatcher. It was only once it was clear Major could beat Kinnock as Heseltine could and Thatcher could not his leadership prospects soared.TheScreamingEagles said:
You repeatedly post polling 'information' that is so easily disprovable.HYUFD said:
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/668224527604781056
All the polling tonight is head to head of Tory voteshare under different hypothetical Tory leaders against Corbyn
Hezza failed to win the leadership, that's the point I'm making.
Until another Tory leader shows they can match Corbyn as Boris has all the momentum will be with him0 -
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser0 -
Boris certainly sees himself as Churchill to May's ChamberlainSeanT said:
Boris is not the cure all. But, as a more dramatic Brexit coda hoves into view, he does become more papabile. A theatrical leader for turbulent times?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
Churchill was rubbish in peace. But he did wartime premiership superbly well.
That is the obvious comparison. It is not wholly inapt.
e.g. I can see a situation where negotiations collapse, TMay is forced to ask for a delay to A50, to avoid No Deal, the EU agrees but she then resigns in shame (taking voter blame with her, or so Tories will hope), then BoJo becomes leader and asks for a new deal with the EU. EEA with tweaks to FoM?
It is far from impossible.0 -
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!HYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
Been travelling to Scotland to our family over the last two days (475 miles) and it has been a delight to be out of the loop and enjoy our wonderful beautiful, if very dry, Country.
This morning my wife and I had a fabulous time on the Speyside Railway travelling on steam engines between Aviemore and Boat of Garten and Broomhill celebrating their 40th Anniversary. The sounds, sights and smells were so evocative of a time gone by and we enjoyed our nostalgia.
But time evolves and we must look forward and while enjoing the past when we can we must look to the future, not some long lost era that UKIP seem to want to take us back too0 -
So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.0
-
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest partywilliamglenn said:
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!HYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
I do not think anything is impossible these days Sean.SeanT said:
Boris is not the cure all. But, as a more dramatic Brexit coda hoves into view, he does become more papabile. A theatrical leader for turbulent times?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
Churchill was rubbish in peace. But he did wartime premiership superbly well.
That is the obvious comparison. It is not wholly inapt.
e.g. I can see a situation where negotiations collapse, TMay is forced to ask for a delay to A50, to avoid No Deal, the EU agrees but she then resigns in shame (taking voter blame with her, or so Tories will hope), then BoJo becomes leader and asks for a new deal with the EU. EEA with tweaks to FoM?
It is far from impossible.0 -
So what, as posted below that point could be the difference between the Tories or Labour being largest partyThe_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
0 -
With Boris both major parties would be of the "fuck business" orientation. I do think that comment will hurt his chances quite badly among the members.The_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
0 -
You do know I am a member alsoHYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
You seem to see politics like running a nuclear power plant - a big wall of dials that you can tweak to control the outcome precisely.HYUFD said:
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest partywilliamglenn said:It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
0 -
You could not make this stuff up could youThe_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
0 -
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leavewilliamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%0 -
I suspect Javid’s issue is one of name recognition. He’s nowhere near as high profile as Boris. Although quite frankly given that this poll claims that the public are swinging to both Remain and the far-right only further shows how fluid public opinion is atm.TheScreamingEagles said:
For months, if not years, Michael Heseltine was the only Tory who could win the 1991/1992 general election according to the polls, just like Boris.HYUFD said:
That is not disprovable at all, Major matched Heseltine in terms of hypothetical Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll which measured that of him. Your poll you have just posted only measured Tory voteshare under Heseltine and Thatcher. It was only once it was clear Major could beat Kinnock as Heseltine could and Thatcher could not his leadership prospects soared.TheScreamingEagles said:
You repeatedly post polling 'information' that is so easily disprovable.HYUFD said:
John Major matched Heseltine in Tory voteshare against Kinnock in the first poll taken of him once he became Chancellor. Both did significantly better with voters than Thatcher was after the poll tax they both distanced themselves from.TheScreamingEagles said:When I'm back to writing threads I'll do a thread about why this Boris poll is just about name recognition.
Michael Heseltine as leader was going to give the Tories the biggest boost then it swung to John Major as more voters go to know him.
On this poll the Chequers Deal could be May's poll tax
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/668224527604781056
All the polling tonight is head to head of Tory voteshare under different hypothetical Tory leaders against Corbyn
Hezza failed to win the leadership, that's the point I'm making.
0 -
Great post Williamwilliamglenn said:
You seem to see politics like running a nuclear power plant - a big wall of dials that you can tweak to control the outcome precisely.HYUFD said:
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest partywilliamglenn said:It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
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The way I read it, May gets some kudos for sticking with an impossible job even though she is making a complete hash of it. Johnson gets some kudos for calling the Chequers deal for the "turd" most people reckon it to be, although he doesn't have a better proposal. None of the other conservatives have anything going for them. May and Johnson get roughly the same amount of kudos, but from different people. The Mayites know Brexit is a dismal failure. The JohnsonIans think the problem is one of execution.williamglenn said:
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!HYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
Churchill left governing on the home front to Attlee. Who would do it for Johnson?SeanT said:
Boris is not the cure all. But, as a more dramatic Brexit coda hoves into view, he does become more papabile. A theatrical leader for turbulent times?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
Churchill was rubbish in peace. But he did wartime premiership superbly well.
That is the obvious comparison. It is not wholly inapt.
e.g. I can see a situation where negotiations collapse, TMay is forced to ask for a delay to A50, to avoid No Deal, the EU agrees but she then resigns in shame (taking voter blame with her, or so Tories will hope), then BoJo becomes leader and asks for a new deal with the EU. EEA with tweaks to FoM?
It is far from impossible.
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I think it’s also likely to be a reason as to why Tory MPs won’t back him in sufficient numbers as well. It’s hard to criticise Corbyn on an economic front if your pitch is ‘fuck business’, so they’ll want another candidate who can attack Corbyn on that front.MaxPB said:
With Boris both major parties would be of the "fuck business" orientation. I do think that comment will hurt his chances quite badly among the members.The_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
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As opposed to you who see current politics as a form of religious pre destination to our natural place at the heart of a Federal EU Superstate I suppose?williamglenn said:
You seem to see politics like running a nuclear power plant - a big wall of dials that you can tweak to control the outcome precisely.HYUFD said:
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet, Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest partywilliamglenn said:It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
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Well if they really want to 'fuck business' then they can see a hard Left Corbyn and McDonnell government elected which on this poll is precisely what they will get if Boris does not lead the ToriesMaxPB said:
With Boris both major parties would be of the "fuck business" orientation. I do think that comment will hurt his chances quite badly among the members.The_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
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Plus that 46% for Leave is for full hard No Deal Brexit not even Chequers Deal Brexit given the choice in the poll was Remain or Leave with No Deal.Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leavewilliamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%
So on the same margin of error as 2016 it would be 50% Remain 50% Leave with No Deal0 -
Maybe they both just get name recognition.FF43 said:
The way I read it, May gets some kudos for sticking with an impossible job even though she is making a complete hash of it. Johnson gets some kudos for calling the Chequers deal for the "turd" most people reckon it to be, although he doesn't have a better proposal. None of the other conservatives have anything going for them. May and Johnson get roughly the same amount of kudos, but from different people. The Mayites know Brexit is a dismal failure. The JohnsonIans think the problem is one of execution.williamglenn said:
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!HYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
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Polls should be more accurate now because you can weight samples against actual referendum vote. (There may be a small number of people who tell pollsters they voted Remain but actually voted Leave. If not taken into account this will depress the Remain poll slightly).Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leavewilliamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%0 -
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the momentBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know I am a member alsoHYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
Will you stop being judgemental. I have common cause with a majority of conservative MP'sHYUFD said:
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the momentBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know I am a member alsoHYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution. 0
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Considering all the talk of impending disaster if we have no deal - 46 per cent of voters in theory backing a no deal hard Brexit is remarkably high. But trying to predict what may happen in reality months ahead is rather difficult - MORI had a poll one year before the Brexit referendum which had remain 44 per cent ahead!HYUFD said:
Plus that 46% for Leave is for full hard No Deal Brexit not even Chequers Deal Brexit given the choice in the poll was Remain or Leave with No Deal.Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leavewilliamglenn said:New poll in the Sunday Times:
Remain: 54%
Leave: 46%
So on the same margin of error as 2016 it would be 50% Remain 50% Leave with No Deal
What the poll shows is both a sharp divide in the country and a general dissatisfaction with the current parties on offer but with no alternative actually available so they stick with Corbyn and May.0 -
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.HYUFD said:
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest partywilliamglenn said:
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!HYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
Correction to the YouGov poll
It appears that the Sunday Times have poorly written up their poll.
The Con 38% Lab 39% VI figures is a hypothetical poll with Boris as Tory leader and they've written that as neck and neck.0 -
There will be more of this in coming weeks. It’s an attempt to get at the “get rid of May and you get a Corbin government” narrative that is keeping May in power. The reality is since she destroyed what was left of her credibility at chequers everyday May remains there she is making a Labour win more likely at next GE. The Tories need to press the reset button and freshen it up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You could not make this stuff up could youThe_Apocalypse said:So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
All the opposition parties would struggle against Javid as Tory leader in an election. There is something of Major in 92 about him.0 -
Members views in both the main parties are not representative of the general population. Thankfully as otherwise Corbyn would currently be PM.HYUFD said:
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the momentBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know I am a member alsoHYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
Spot onfelix said:
Members views in both the main parties are not representative of the general population. Thankfully as otherwise Corbyn would currently be PM.HYUFD said:
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the momentBig_G_NorthWales said:
You do know I am a member alsoHYUFD said:
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.HYUFD said:
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team BorisBig_G_NorthWales said:
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.HYUFD said:
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are0 -
I think most voters just want the whole Brexit thing to be over - they seem to me to be pretty angry with the whole political class for the continued debating over a matter which they believed was done and dusted 2 years ago. I have to say, despite my own disappointment with the vote I can see their point.SouthamObserver said:At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
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This discussion has been closed.