Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
You do know I am a member also
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the moment
Members views in both the main parties are not representative of the general population. Thankfully as otherwise Corbyn would currently be PM.
You mean the Corbyn now on around 40% in the polls or Boris who is the only Tory who can challenge Corbyn in the polls?
If the public view was so divorced from the party members view then surely only Liz Kendall could have got Labour to 40% and May's Chequers Deal would have seen her get a big bounce in the polls with the public?
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
I think most voters just want the whole Brexit thing to be over - they seem to me to be pretty angry with the whole political class for the continued debating over a matter which they believed was done and dusted 2 years ago. I have to say, despite my own disappointment with the vote I can see their point.
Yep, they were told it would be easy by people who had no idea about the complexities involved. Brexit will dominate everything for years to come. We’re only at the start of the process.
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
You do know I am a member also
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the moment
Will you stop being judgemental. I have common cause with a majority of conservative MP's
No you don't, a majority of Tory MPs voted to leave the Single Market and you have made clear you want to stay in the Single Market
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest party
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
Haven't Gove and Hunt been around long enough for a fair proportion of voters to know who they are - one ran the Brexit campaign and the other was minister for the NHS for 8 years. Javid maybe less so.
Normally voters are neutral about people they don't know - these opinions suggest s negativity.
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest party
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest party
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
Haven't Gove and Hunt been around long enough for a fair proportion of voters to know who they are - one ran the Brexit campaign and the other was minister for the NHS for 8 years. Javid maybe less so.
Normally voters are neutral about people they don't know - these opinions suggest s negativity.
Agreed. This poll certainly shows Gove and Hunt's leadership bids are effectively dead tonight.
Javid's though may be still alive as he gets better known and he does slightly better against Corbyn than Hunt and Gove anyway in the poll
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
You do know I am a member also
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the moment
Members views in both the main parties are not representative of the general population. Thankfully as otherwise Corbyn would currently be PM.
You mean the Corbyn now on around 40% in the polls or Boris who is the only Tory who can challenge Corbyn in the polls?
If the public view was so divorced from the party members view then surely only Liz Kendall could have got Labour to 40% and May's Chequers Deal would have seen her get a big bounce in the polls with the public?
Like most on here I think the polls are measuring a state of flux where the public are very unclear about what they think and where the country is going. The figures broadly measure tribal loyalty as much as anything else - in terms of what might happen in a GE I would not trust them let alone turn them into tablets of stone akin to the 10 Commandments. You need to chill out. The idea that Labour or Conservative membership are mirrors of the views of the general public - go tell it to the marines.
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leave
Plus that 46% for Leave is for full hard No Deal Brexit not even Chequers Deal Brexit given the choice in the poll was Remain or Leave with No Deal.
So on the same margin of error as 2016 it would be 50% Remain 50% Leave with No Deal
Considering all the talk of impending disaster if we have no deal - 46 per cent of voters in theory backing a no deal hard Brexit is remarkably high. But trying to predict what may happen in reality months ahead is rather difficult - MORI had a poll one year before the Brexit referendum which had remain 44 per cent ahead!
What the poll shows is both a sharp divide in the country and a general dissatisfaction with the current parties on offer but with no alternative actually available so they stick with Corbyn and May.
On Brexit we remain as polarised as we were in 2016
The Sunday Times haven't made it clear what the standard VI poll is, so until we see the YouGov data tables it isn't worth discussing the hypotheticals VI polls.
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
I think most voters just want the whole Brexit thing to be over - they seem to me to be pretty angry with the whole political class for the continued debating over a matter which they believed was done and dusted 2 years ago. I have to say, despite my own disappointment with the vote I can see their point.
Yep, they were told it would be easy by people who had no idea about the complexities involved. Brexit will dominate everything for years to come. We’re only at the start of the process.
You fall into the same trap of assuming you know the motives of voters - I met and argued with many who were very sanguine about the economic damage Brexit could cause. They simply did not care. Very frustrating - yes - but please don't pretend you can blame it on lies and half-truths because there was a ton of those on both sides
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest party
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
As I said earlier in the week, I can see UKIP or some English Nationalist populist party on 15% soon, maybe higher. The rest of Europe has/is going this way, why not England?
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
You do know I am a member also
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the moment
Members views in both the main parties are not representative of the general population. Thankfully as otherwise Corbyn would currently be PM.
You mean the Corbyn now on around 40% in the Labour to 40% and May's Chequers Deal would have seen her get a big bounce in the polls with the public?
Like most on here I think the polls are measuring a state of flux where the public are very unclear about what they think and where the country is going. The figures broadly measure tribal loyalty as much as anything else - in terms of what might happen in a GE I would not trust them let alone turn them into tablets of stone akin to the 10 Commandments. You need to chill out. The idea that Labour or Conservative membership are mirrors of the views of the general public - go tell it to the marines.
Short of a strong centrist party though as is the case now where the memberships of the two main parties go has more impact
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to other contenders all of whom are in the Cabinet. Javid, Gove and Hunt trail Corbyn by 10 to 12 points and even that margin of error with May is potentially enough to make the difference between a Tory PM or a Labour PM or at least Tories largest party or Labour largest party
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
Haven't Gove and Hunt been around long enough for a fair proportion of voters to know who they are - one ran the Brexit campaign and the other was minister for the NHS for 8 years. Javid maybe less so.
Normally voters are neutral about people they don't know - these opinions suggest s negativity.
Most voters do not follow politics at all. Recognition levels are very low indeed. Forums like this operate in a bubble.
The Sunday Times haven't made it clear what the standard VI poll is, so until we see the YouGov data tables it isn't worth discussing the hypotheticals VI polls.
Only not worth discussing in the context of replacing May but even then we know the Tories trail Labour by more than 1% in every post Chequers Deal poll so far
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
But a huge difference compared to arty
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
As I said earlier in the week, I can see UKIP or some English Nationalist populist party on 15% soon, maybe higher. The rest of Europe has/is going this way, why not England?
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
Quite possibly, 24% said they would vote for an extremist English nationalist, anti immigration, anti Islam party in this poll which is a concern.
The paper also reports Steve Bannon is fundraising for a new far right rival to Momentum and Farage and Banks are looking to raise £10 million for a new pro hard Brexit party
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
snip
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
As I said earlier in the week, I can see UKIP or some English Nationalist populist party on 15% soon, maybe higher. The rest of Europe has/is going this way, why not England?
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
Quite possibly, 24% said they would vote for an extremist English nationalist, anti immigration, anti Islam party in this poll which is a concern
Sadly, these are the times we live in. Very bad stuff is coming.
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
As I said earlier in the week, I can see UKIP or some English Nationalist populist party on 15% soon, maybe higher. The rest of Europe has/is going this way, why not England?
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
Quite possibly, 24% said they would vote for an extremist English nationalist, anti immigration, anti Islam party in this poll which is a concern
Such a party is already on about 25% in Sweden and 16% in Germany.
So according to this poll that HYUFD is hyping up, Boris Johnson, the apparent saviour of the Conservative Party can only improve on the Conservative position by a single point against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism.
You could not make this stuff up could you
There will be more of this in coming weeks. It’s an attempt to get at the “get rid of May and you get a Corbin government” narrative that is keeping May in power. The reality is since she destroyed what was left of her credibility at chequers everyday May remains there she is making a Labour win more likely at next GE. The Tories need to press the reset button and freshen it up.
All the opposition parties would struggle against Javid as Tory leader in an election. There is something of Major in 92 about him.
"against a Corbyn led Labour Party engulfed in an anti-semitism scandal, while notable Corbynista media figures discuss the potential merits of communism."
Not a single average, non-political, non current affairs junky will have any idea what you are talking about. I am afraid.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
HYUFD and myself don’t agree upon much, but we both realised long ago that only a Leaver can be the next Tory leader. The polls have been quite clear - whichever Leaver who has the most credibility is ahead. When they lose their Leaver credentials, people look for someone else credible. DD was ahead for ages because people thought he was most likely to deliver Brexit. When he started being pushed around by May, they moved on. Gove killed his chances by selling out on Chequers. Javid has the same problem - nonody knows if he can be trusted on Brexit. If he resigned now, he would be favourite, but he won’t so he isn’t. When no cabinet Leaver was credible, people looked to JRM.
Boris resigning was a master stroke. He gets the JRM supporters and is the Leaver who stuck to his principles especially since it is clear DD doesn’t want to be leader. Of course Boris is popular again. He won the referendum for goodness sake. He was hanstrung being in the Cabinet but now he can speak out opposition to May will revolve around him. And I suspect May will resign when Chequers fails. Boris can get the prize depending on how he performs in public over the next few months.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
HYUFD and myself don’t agree upon much, but we both realised long ago that only a Leaver can be the next Tory leader. The polls have been quite clear - whichever Leaver who has the most credibility is ahead. When they lose their Leaver credentials, people look for someone else credible. DD was ahead for ages because people thought he was most likely to deliver Brexit. When he started being pushed around by May, they moved on. Gove killed his chances by selling out on Chequers. Javid has the same problem - nonody knows if he can be trusted on Brexit. If he resigned now, he would be favourite, but he won’t so he isn’t. When no cabinet Leaver was credible, people looked to JRM.
Boris resigning was a master stroke. He gets the JRM supporters and is the Leaver who stuck to his principles especially since it is clear DD doesn’t want to be leader. Of course Boris is popular again. He won the referendum for goodness sake. He was hanstrung being in the Cabinet but now he can speak out opposition to May will revolve around him. And I suspect May will resign when Chequers fails. Boris can get the prize depending on how he performs in public over the next few months.
Boris, stuck to his principles? His behaviour over Chequers says otherwise. I think he's a busted flush.
YouGov's Referendum Day (23rd June 2016) poll was 52% Remain, 48% Leave
Plus that 46% for Leave is for full hard No Deal Brexit not even Chequers Deal Brexit given the choice in the poll was Remain or Leave with No Deal.
So on the same margin of error as 2016 it would be 50% Remain 50% Leave with No Deal
Considering all the talk of impending disaster if we have no deal - 46 per cent of voters in theory backing a no deal hard Brexit is remarkably high. But trying to predict what may happen in reality months ahead is rather difficult - MORI had a poll one year before the Brexit referendum which had remain 44 per cent ahead!
What the poll shows is both a sharp divide in the country and a general dissatisfaction with the current parties on offer but with no alternative actually available so they stick with Corbyn and May.
On Brexit we remain as polarised as we were in 2016
I think a lot has changed since 2016, it’s been an educational two years. In 2016 leave meant leave, now leave camp are made up from hard or no deal brexit, and soft business friendly Brexit. I also feel a lot of people who voted leave in 2016 wouldn’t in a same vote tomorrow, a 60 / 40 remain win. And I think a lot of credibility in certain politicians has changed. Personally I think Boris talks a lot of sense. I think he was on the ball to say fuck business, don’t let them make it a business Brexit. If you didn’t know the guy, just went by his articles and speeches you can see a lot of good practical “this is actually what people voted for” logic in what he is saying. But sometimes people get a perception of someone, it doesn’t matter what they are saying no one is listening . Both May and Boris have reached that point now.
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
I am a Tory member, I want the Tories to win and the current polling evidence is only Boris could beat Corbyn of Tory leadership contenders.
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
You do know I am a member also
Yes though you have more in common with the LDs than most Tory members on Brexit at the moment
Will you stop being judgemental. I have common cause with a majority of conservative MP's
No you don't, a majority of Tory MPs voted to leave the Single Market and you have made clear you want to stay in the Single Market
With respect I do not swear but that is just nonsense. Give up
I might even agree. Based on these numbers, No Deal would win after we have been through a campaign. Amazing support for No Deal. Another few weeks of Barnier rejecting everything and No Deal will be a clear winner. I have tried to explain that regardless of their views, Brits don’t like being bossed around by foreigners.
But seriously, there is not going to be a second referendum. If Brexit is overturned, MPs will just do it themselves. There is no desire on behalf of MPs to ask the public anything ever again - the lesson they learned from the referendum is that MPs should make all decisions themselves in future because the people might get it wrong.
I'd expect that number to go down during a campaign once people realise what exactly no deal entails.
Given in a recent poll only handful of voters knew what a/the customs union was, ditto the single market.
I'd expect a few people who campaigned for Leave to campaign against a no deal which would help bring down that number.
People like Gove know deep down no deal fecks the country and ensures a Corbyn Premiership.
99% of MP's did not know what the customs union/single market was and significant percentage still do not know. ergo they do not have a clue on the consequences positive or negative,
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
Oh, the ‘people just don’t understand’ narrative. Again. At least you are consistent in thinking the electorate are morons.
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
Oh, the ‘people just don’t understand’ narrative. Again. At least you are consistent in thinking the electorate are morons.
Some morons think No Deal is an existential threat to the EU because nothing would happen.
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
Astonishing poll. Under Javid the Tories would be 10 points behind Labour and under Hunt and Gove the Tories would be 12 points behind Labour but under Boris the Tories would be tied with Labour.
Given under May Labour has a 1% lead in the same poll it looks only Boris can stop Corbyn now, the others would do even worse than May
You and polls. In a fluid situation like this they are no guide to the future.
They will swing wildly over the next 6 months and even you may find that your certainty has been ovrertaken by events.
And Boris is not the cure all, I would suggest you keep a more open mind
If the polls change and another potential Tory leader is shown to be able to beat Corbyn I may change my mind, for now I am on team Boris
The problem is you have become his cheer leader.
It not really for me go say it but maybe keeping your option more open would be wiser
If the facts change I may revise my view accordingly, for now I will stick with the facts as they are
It's a margin of error difference compared to the current leader!
FFS - that is all about name recognition. You really do take polls far too literally and make ridiculous assumptions and conclusions from what is really very flimsy evidence.
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
As I said earlier in the week, I can see UKIP or some English Nationalist populist party on 15% soon, maybe higher. The rest of Europe has/is going this way, why not England?
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
Quite possibly, 24% said they would vote for an extremist English nationalist, anti immigration, anti Islam party in this poll which is a concern
Such a party is already on about 25% in Sweden and 16% in Germany.
And got 33% in France and is on 27% in Italy and of course there is Trump too
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
How much overlap do you think there is between their supporters? I suspect a lot....
No it is not all name recognition, it is a direct reflection of the Tory to UKIP movement in recent polls and the fact Boris is the only senior Tory who opposed the Chequers Deal
HYUFD and myself don’t agree upon much, but we both realised long ago that only a Leaver can be the next Tory leader. The polls have been quite clear - whichever Leaver who has the most credibility is ahead. When they lose their Leaver credentials, people look for someone else credible. DD was ahead for ages because people thought he was most likely to deliver Brexit. When he started being pushed around by May, they moved on. Gove killed his chances by selling out on Chequers. Javid has the same problem - nonody knows if he can be trusted on Brexit. If he resigned now, he would be favourite, but he won’t so he isn’t. When no cabinet Leaver was credible, people looked to JRM.
Boris resigning was a master stroke. He gets the JRM supporters and is the Leaver who stuck to his principles especially since it is clear DD doesn’t want to be leader. Of course Boris is popular again. He won the referendum for goodness sake. He was hanstrung being in the Cabinet but now he can speak out opposition to May will revolve around him. And I suspect May will resign when Chequers fails. Boris can get the prize depending on how he performs in public over the next few months.
At some point, surely, polling will be done on what people understand a No Deal Brexit to be. Until we know what voters think it means their views on it need to be taken with extreme caution.
Oh, the ‘people just don’t understand’ narrative. Again. At least you are consistent in thinking the electorate are morons.
Some morons think No Deal is an existential threat to the EU because nothing would happen.
I don’t think nothing would happen. I think that, after some initial chaos, the UK will outperform the EU. And yes, that will be an existential threat to the EU. It does require a Tory leader to actually embrace No Deal however.
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
I think that ensures Boris' gets to the final two and the membership vote
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
How much overlap do you think there is between their supporters? I suspect a lot....
Nailed it. The one person JRM will not stand against is Boris. Between them and the other ERGers, they have enough to get Boris into the final two. Which means he wins.
Major 1997 maybe, Major 1992 no chance on this poll
On this one poll I agree. That would be reading too much into this one poll? Have you not come across for yourself moderate swing voters liking Javid? I have. Sure he ticks the right aspirational boxes, like Major did, Dad bus driver etc. But he also ticks looks and sounds the part, comminicates well, command of detail to filibuster difficult situation well. And a remain voter today battling Hammond in cabinet for the leave cause. I’d say he’s currently the one with the mo.
I'd expect that number to go down during a campaign once people realise what exactly no deal entails.
Given in a recent poll only handful of voters knew what a/the customs union was, ditto the single market.
I'd expect a few people who campaigned for Leave to campaign against a no deal which would help bring down that number.
People like Gove know deep down no deal fecks the country and ensures a Corbyn Premiership.
No deal == Tories out of office for a generation.
No, on this poll BINO equals Tories out of office for a generation and a new borderline Fascist hard right party getting almost a quarter of the vote
Are these two outcomes mutually exclusive?
No, as if the Tories back BINO and leave free movement in place in all but name without even work permits or a points system replacing it this poll confirms a very nasty far right party could quickly fill the vacuum
Major 1997 maybe, Major 1992 no chance on this poll
On this one poll I agree. That would be reading too much into this one poll? Have you not come across for yourself moderate swing voters liking Javid? I have. Sure he ticks the right aspirational boxes, like Major did, Dad bus driver etc. But he also ticks looks and sounds the part, comminicates well, command of detail to filibuster difficult situation well. And a remain voter today battling Hammond in cabinet for the leave cause. I’d say he’s currently the one with the mo.
I am still open to Javid yes and note the reports today he resisted Hammond's push to give EU migrants preferential treatment to migrants from elsewhere in the world shows he also has one eye on the mbership vote
I might even agree. Based on these numbers, No Deal would win after we have been through a campaign. Amazing support for No Deal. Another few weeks of Barnier rejecting everything and No Deal will be a clear winner. I have tried to explain that regardless of their views, Brits don’t like being bossed around by foreigners.
But seriously, there is not going to be a second referendum. If Brexit is overturned, MPs will just do it themselves. There is no desire on behalf of MPs to ask the public anything ever again - the lesson they learned from the referendum is that MPs should make all decisions themselves in future because the people might get it wrong.
I think parliament will decide that another vote is the only way to decide this.
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
How much overlap do you think there is between their supporters? I suspect a lot....
Nailed it. The one person JRM will not stand against is Boris. Between them and the other ERGers, they have enough to get Boris into the final two. Which means he wins.
Do they? I thought ERG as around 50 MPs, and some of them signed up when they first entered the House, like kids sign up to the blow-football club at Freshers week.
So Boris gets a 9% higher Tory voteshare than Hunt and Javid, an 8% higher Tory voteshare than Gove and a 3% higher Tory voteshare than Mogg. The poll also confirms Boris ties Corbyn while May trails Corbyn by 1%.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
And then again when the contest actually happens and JRM tells his supporters to back Boris....
How much overlap do you think there is between their supporters? I suspect a lot....
Nailed it. The one person JRM will not stand against is Boris. Between them and the other ERGers, they have enough to get Boris into the final two. Which means he wins.
Do they? I thought ERG as around 50 MPs, and some of them signed up when they first entered the House, like kids sign up to the blow-football club at Freshers week.
Given if May goes only Boris and Mogg can stop a 1997 style Labour landslide on this poll I think rather more Tory MPs in marginal seats will be signing up to team Boris than was the case a month ago
I might even agree. Based on these numbers, No Deal would win after we have been through a campaign. Amazing support for No Deal. Another few weeks of Barnier rejecting everything and No Deal will be a clear winner. I have tried to explain that regardless of their views, Brits don’t like being bossed around by foreigners.
But seriously, there is not going to be a second referendum. If Brexit is overturned, MPs will just do it themselves. There is no desire on behalf of MPs to ask the public anything ever again - the lesson they learned from the referendum is that MPs should make all decisions themselves in future because the people might get it wrong.
I think parliament will decide that another vote is the only way to decide this.
I suspect there is a majority of MPs who simply don't want to go through the bitterness of another vote on this topic. They'll look at it and say "cui bono" and decide it's not them
What’s that coming over the Belgian hill, is it a massive hole in your budget? Might focus some minds.
It's <0.25% of the EU GDP; I think they'll manage somehow. Time to let go of 'they need us more than we need them'.</p>
It hurts the Commission somewhat more than that...
Yeah, but we weren't paying 40bn in year one. We were paying €10bn for each of the first two years, then a diminishing amount over the next 40 years.
"Dominic Raab told The Sunday Telegraph that he would make the vast payment formally conditional on the EU “fulfilling its side of the bargain”."
Well, that is a good idea, but don't let Olly Robbins hear you. This should have been established back in December. Suspect Raab is going to have to backtrack on this once he is told by Robbins that he agreed the bill with no conditions.
Yet another hostage to fortune from the May/Robbins December agreement. EU will never agree to the linkage; ERG will vote it down without one.
And we haven't heard about ECJ jurisdiction over the Withdrawal Agreement yet.....
Comments
When YouGov have asked these sort of hypotheticals in the past they've asked a standard VI question as a control.
If they've done that we'll see that either in The Sunday Times or in the data tables.
If the public view was so divorced from the party members view then surely only Liz Kendall could have got Labour to 40% and May's Chequers Deal would have seen her get a big bounce in the polls with the public?
Normally voters are neutral about people they don't know - these opinions suggest s negativity.
Javid's though may be still alive as he gets better known and he does slightly better against Corbyn than Hunt and Gove anyway in the poll
Farage will be back in politics quicker than a very quick thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2673730
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/3143244
The paper also reports Steve Bannon is fundraising for a new far right rival to Momentum and Farage and Banks are looking to raise £10 million for a new pro hard Brexit party
Not a single average, non-political, non current affairs junky will have any idea what you are talking about. I am afraid.
Boris resigning was a master stroke. He gets the JRM supporters and is the Leaver who stuck to his principles especially since it is clear DD doesn’t want to be leader. Of course Boris is popular again. He won the referendum for goodness sake. He was hanstrung being in the Cabinet but now he can speak out opposition to May will revolve around him. And I suspect May will resign when Chequers fails. Boris can get the prize depending on how he performs in public over the next few months.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1020811289009025024
Given in a recent poll only handful of voters knew what a/the customs union was, ditto the single market.
I'd expect a few people who campaigned for Leave to campaign against a no deal which would help bring down that number.
People like Gove know deep down no deal fecks the country and ensures a Corbyn Premiership.
But seriously, there is not going to be a second referendum. If Brexit is overturned, MPs will just do it themselves. There is no desire on behalf of MPs to ask the public anything ever again - the lesson they learned from the referendum is that MPs should make all decisions themselves in future because the people might get it wrong.
That was back in 2011.
So I think I'd do it today for circa £500 per hour.
Which you'll all agree is a bargain and I'm underselling myself due to my legendary modesty.
Yet again confirms what a big boost this poll is for Boris' chances of succeeding May as Tory leader. Plus if you do not replace May with Boris you may as well keep her
Well, that is a good idea, but don't let Olly Robbins hear you. This should have been established back in December. Suspect Raab is going to have to backtrack on this once he is told by Robbins that he agreed the bill with no conditions.
Yet another hostage to fortune from the May/Robbins December agreement. EU will never agree to the linkage; ERG will vote it down without one.
And we haven't heard about ECJ jurisdiction over the Withdrawal Agreement yet.....