politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit equivocator Corbyn isn’t doing too badly with Remainers

BTW for anyone interested Conservative Home have the alternative plan for Brexit from Dex.EU (Presumably this is what David Davis was expecting to present at Chequers?)

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/mays-new-brexit-plan-there-is-an-alternative-from-within-the-government-itself.html

1. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-the-alternative-brexit-white-paper-a-draft-from-dexeu-1-mutual-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html

2. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-2-agricultural-food-and-fish-products-outcome-equivalence.html

3. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-3-governance-and-political-oversight-of-the-future-relationship.html

4. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-4-mobility-framework.html

5. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-5-services-and-investment.html

6. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-6-financial-services.html

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

https://twitter.com/andrewhunterm/status/1017386573418123264?s=21

Seems a very low price for such a rich country

Especially as it's the wealthy in California and New York who would pay the most...

Bulgaria agrees plan for joining the Euro

https://www.ft.com/content/4b622248-8609-11e8-a29d-73e3d454535d

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

ralphmalph said:

GIN1138 said:

I like Melania.

Especially that leather flying jacket, stiletto look, tres chic.

One thing that is frequently overlooked in the political argy-bargy is that Melania Trump genuinely is a stunningly beautiful and graceful woman who carries herself very well. I can't remember a Presidential consort being that poised.

Melania is the most beautiful First Lady since Jackie Kennedy, though at least JFK had classical good looks and did not look like he was on his fifth burger of the day unlike The Donald. I think we can probably say Melania really married Donald's bank account

You have obviously forgotten The Donald literally boasted of the size of his gentleman's sausage in one of the primaries. And that he is charismatic, which is why millions of Americans watched him on The Apprentice, turned up to his rallies and in the end voted for him.

I thought that was to counter rumours - based on his hand size - that he had not so much a sausage but a pig in a blanket.

Now, I also have small hands. But as I explain to any ladies who express doubts, it's not the size to start with but how far you can stretch them that matters, and I am pleased to say after much hard practice upon my organ I can stretch a full twelve inches.

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

ralphmalph said:

GIN1138 said:

I like Melania.

Especially that leather flying jacket, stiletto look, tres chic.

One thing that is frequently overlooked in the political argy-bargy is that Melania Trump genuinely is a stunningly beautiful and graceful woman who carries herself very well. I can't remember a Presidential consort being that poised.

Melania is the most beautiful First Lady since Jackie Kennedy, though at least JFK had classical good looks and did not look like he was on his fifth burger of the day unlike The Donald. I think we can probably say Melania really married Donald's bank account

You have obviously forgotten The Donald literally boasted of the size of his gentleman's sausage in one of the primaries. And that he is charismatic, which is why millions of Americans watched him on The Apprentice, turned up to his rallies and in the end voted for him.

Johnny Vegas is charismatic and I expect on the large side

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

ralphmalph said:

GIN1138 said:

I like Melania.

Especially that leather flying jacket, stiletto look, tres chic.

One thing that is frequently overlooked in the political argy-bargy is that Melania Trump genuinely is a stunningly beautiful and graceful woman who carries herself very well. I can't remember a Presidential consort being that poised.

Melania is the most beautiful First Lady since Jackie Kennedy, though at least JFK had classical good looks and did not look like he was on his fifth burger of the day unlike The Donald. I think we can probably say Melania really married Donald's bank account

Ah, it could be love, y'never know. People are weird.

It's only Gove doing it's thing, baby
It's only Gove that you're feeling, girl, you're felling
It's only Gove doing it's thing, baby
It's only Gove that you're giving, you're giving

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1017506115951656965

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/queen-elizabeth-says-bone-spurs-will-prevent-her-from-meeting-trump

She's already met more than a quarter of all US Presidents there have ever been!

A job for life is a quintessentially, shall we say, "socialist" perk, IMHO

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1017506115951656965

Resigned from the Party or from the House?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/1017506005435985926

Seems like it got deleted

ha ha ha

https://order-order.com/2018/07/12/jared-omara-resigns-labour-whip-claiming-party-not-up-to-his-standards-on-equality/

Seriously?

Jared O'Mara has resigned the Labour whip but will remain an MP

another_richard said:

For the soft fruit fans today's Tesco Strawberry score is a seven:

Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Lancashire
Cambridgeshire
Kent

Today I am mostly eating Cornish blueberries.

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

For the soft fruit fans today's Tesco Strawberry score is a seven:

Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Lancashire
Cambridgeshire
Kent

Today I am mostly eating Cornish blueberries.

I saw the Stan Laurel statue at Bishop Auckland back on Monday.

You just know this is going to be amazing:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1017497372782362625?s=21

Dear Constituents,

It is with great sadness that today I have decided to announce my departure from the Labour Party with immediate effect. This decision has not been taken lightly but has been made following careful reflection of the decision to re-admit me back into the Labour Party following my suspension last October. I feel I have not been listened to or been given a fair investigation as I do not believe they considered my supporting evidence or got in touch with my witnesses. Furthermore, I am of the opinion that the Labour Party no longer shares my commitment to the true definition of equality and compassion.

There is no doubt that I made mistakes as a young man using distasteful language as a clumsy attempt at satire and sarcasm online. But that does not mean that is who I am today. I am sure that there may be many of us who have done things in our past which we wished we had never done. That said, you can’t take it away and I am truly sorry for any offence that I caused.

I didn’t commit any crimes, yet I have been made unfairly to feel like a criminal. Nobody should be made to feel ashamed for mistakes they make when they are young. Someone from a youth charity recently said to me that “young people should be free to be anti-social”. I was not anti-social by definition but agree with the sentiment. It’s part of learning and growing up.

I believe I am the first autistic MP in our history, and this sadly got lost in the narrative of my interview with ITV earlier this week. I ask for everybody to go on the internet and read about autism, and about my other disabilities; clinical depression, cerebral palsy and anxiety. Then, with that reading and research, seek to exercise empathy over apathy and antipathy. All I’ve ever wanted to do in life is help those who suffer more than I do. I ask that you all share this ambition and concern with me.

I also ask my constituents for understanding and sympathy during this challenging time. I would be lying to those of you whom I represent, and those close to me like my parents and sister respectively, if I continued under the pretence that I feel there is a place of acceptance and empathy for me as a working class, underprivileged disabled man within the Labour Party. I have experienced little to make me feel welcome, understood and accepted during this last year.

Finally, I ask the media and general public to be patient with me. I am still the MP for Sheffield Hallam and I am still available to help my constituents with casework if you need my help. I might be leaving Labour but I am still at your side.

I am not perfect, but nor are any of us. And that isn’t a bad thing. We all need to love ourselves and forgive our mistakes, foibles and flaws. Let us all instead celebrate our good qualities and strengths. This is what life experiences to date has taught me and I must share that with you all.

Best wishes and with much love,

Jared O’Mara MP

What do hardline Brexiteers (when arguing that whatever latest Govt proposal does not meet the demands of the "Brexit vote") say when meeting a Leave voter who says that they are happy with a fairly soft exit?

bigjohnowls said:

Dear Constituents,

It is with great sadness that today I have decided to announce my departure from the Labour Party with immediate effect. This decision has not been taken lightly but has been made following careful reflection of the decision to re-admit me back into the Labour Party following my suspension last October. I feel I have not been listened to or been given a fair investigation as I do not believe they considered my supporting evidence or got in touch with my witnesses. Furthermore, I am of the opinion that the Labour Party no longer shares my commitment to the true definition of equality and compassion.

There is no doubt that I made mistakes as a young man using distasteful language as a clumsy attempt at satire and sarcasm online. But that does not mean that is who I am today. I am sure that there may be many of us who have done things in our past which we wished we had never done. That said, you can’t take it away and I am truly sorry for any offence that I caused.

I didn’t commit any crimes, yet I have been made unfairly to feel like a criminal. Nobody should be made to feel ashamed for mistakes they make when they are young. Someone from a youth charity recently said to me that “young people should be free to be anti-social”. I was not anti-social by definition but agree with the sentiment. It’s part of learning and growing up.

I believe I am the first autistic MP in our history, and this sadly got lost in the narrative of my interview with ITV earlier this week. I ask for everybody to go on the internet and read about autism, and about my other disabilities; clinical depression, cerebral palsy and anxiety. Then, with that reading and research, seek to exercise empathy over apathy and antipathy. All I’ve ever wanted to do in life is help those who suffer more than I do. I ask that you all share this ambition and concern with me.

I also ask my constituents for understanding and sympathy during this challenging time. I would be lying if I continued under the pretence that I feel there is a place of acceptance and empathy for me as a working class, underprivileged disabled man within the Labour Party. I have experienced little to make me feel welcome, understood and accepted during this last year.

Finally, I ask the media and general public to be patient with me. I am still the MP for Sheffield Hallam and I am still available to help my constituents with casework if you need my help. I might be leaving Labour but I am still at your side.

I am not perfect, but nor are any of us. And that isn’t a bad thing. We all need to love ourselves and forgive our mistakes, foibles and flaws. Let us all instead celebrate our good qualities and strengths. This is what life experiences to date has taught me and I must share that with you all.

Best wishes and with much love,

Jared O’Mara MP

What a plonker

AlastairMeeks said:

You just know this is going to be amazing:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1017497372782362625?s=21

Respec'!

alex. said:

What do hardline Brexiteers (when arguing that whatever latest Govt proposal does not meet the demands of the "Brexit vote") say when meeting a Leave voter who says that they are happy with a fairly soft exit?

Traitor?

I think it is fair to say that Jared O'Mara has achieved something I thought was impossible.

With that long whinge blaming everyone and everything but himself for his problems and his really crass mistakes, he has caused me to think less of him.

He clearly needs help, but he's clearly also not fit to be an MP.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

For the soft fruit fans today's Tesco Strawberry score is a seven:

Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Lancashire
Cambridgeshire
Kent

Today I am mostly eating Cornish blueberries.

I saw the Stan Laurel statue at Bishop Auckland back on Monday.

I guess you had just yellow-penned the line from Darlington then!

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not sure it has been publicised but O'Mara told the local Labour party that he attempted to commit suicide three times since he was originally suspended by Labour.

This is not a well person.

Not to be harsh, but why isn't he resigning as an MP?

To annoy me.

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

another_richard said:

For the soft fruit fans today's Tesco Strawberry score is a seven:

Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Lancashire
Cambridgeshire
Kent

Today I am mostly eating Cornish blueberries.

I saw the Stan Laurel statue at Bishop Auckland back on Monday.

I guess you had just yellow-penned the line from Darlington then!

Yes indeed! Unfortunately, the heritage line to Stanhope only runs Weds, and Weekends, which was a shame. But I did do the Darlington to Saltburn line the previous Monday.

ydoethur said:

I think it is fair to say that Jared O'Mara has achieved something I thought was impossible.

With that long whinge blaming everyone and everything but himself for his problems and his really crass mistakes, he has caused me to think less of him.

He clearly needs help, but he's clearly also not fit to be an MP.

I do worry, given the tenor of his statements, that I am being unduly harsh, but it does come across that perhaps he was chosen as a candidate for the boxes he ticked rather than if he had the fortitude to undertake what is not an easy job, for all we mock it. Public service even when worth it contains intense pressures on anyone. O'Mara does not seem particularly self reflective given that that was, in fact, reinstated, and the investigation proceeded very slowly, reportedly in part due to his health IIRC.

I have seen so many complaints in my time where people blame the system when they don't like the outcome, even when the outcome is in their favour though. It is usually down to bitterness at having to defend oneself, rightly or wrongly.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm not sure it has been publicised but O'Mara told the local Labour party that he attempted to commit suicide three times since he was originally suspended by Labour.

This is not a well person.

My nasty b***ard aspect asks if if he can manage to do anything (apart from beating Clegg).

My humane aspect thinks he needs to resign and get some proper help.

My practical aspect wonders what happens if he tries again in the HoC.

I’ve gone off Clegg in recent months, but even so, I still can’t believe the residents of Sheffield Hallam kicked him out for Jared O’Mara.

The_Apocalypse said:

I’ve gone off Clegg in recent months, but even so, I still can’t believe the residents of Sheffield Hallam kicked him out for Jared O’Mara.

Far too many Tories for Clegg thought Clegg was safe this time.

The_Apocalypse said:

I’ve gone off Clegg in recent months, but even so, I still can’t believe the residents of Sheffield Hallam kicked him out for Jared O’Mara.

You were in favour of Clegg before? What has changed recently?

It was a shock to me, that one. His was one of the few LD seats that survived the 2015 cull that I thought relatively safe in 2017 (none were completely safe).

The_Apocalypse said:

I’ve gone off Clegg in recent months, but even so, I still can’t believe the residents of Sheffield Hallam kicked him out for Jared O’Mara.

Whatt a bizarre way for O'Mara to respond; he was lucky not to be thrown out. It's actually a huge gift for Labour, in the same way that David Ward re-standing for the Lib Dems meant a lot of adverse publicity, Jared O'Mara standing again could have harmed Labour well outside Sheffield Hallam. But Labour can now pick a carefully vetted candidate.

And remember the Lib Dems have already selected here: Laura Gordon will be the Lib Dem candidate, Nick Clegg has retired. I don't know her well but at a distance she seems a credible candidate and ready to win.

AlastairMeeks said:

You just know this is going to be amazing:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1017497372782362625?s=21

He's a baw hair away from challenging Cohen to a duel.

I'm hearing his words spoken by the voice of Foghorn Leghorn.

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

I think it is fair to say that Jared O'Mara has achieved something I thought was impossible.

With that long whinge blaming everyone and everything but himself for his problems and his really crass mistakes, he has caused me to think less of him.

He clearly needs help, but he's clearly also not fit to be an MP.

If he is that unwell, it would surely be in his own interest to stand down and seek help from mental health professionals.

Yes, I agree. I thought the fuss over his original comments was totally ridiculous (those comments on websites from years ago were incredibly tame, in the scheme of things......those things he allegedly said to that woman just a year ago was much more shady, though), but the real issue now is his mental wellbeing. I can't imagine being in a job with that workload, not to mention the media scrutiny, is healthy for someone with mental health issues.

GIN1138 said:

BTW for anyone interested Conservative Home have the alternative plan for Brexit from Dex.EU (Presumably this is what David Davis was expecting to present at Chequers?)

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/mays-new-brexit-plan-there-is-an-alternative-from-within-the-government-itself.html

1. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-the-alternative-brexit-white-paper-a-draft-from-dexeu-1-mutual-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html

2. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-2-agricultural-food-and-fish-products-outcome-equivalence.html

3. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-3-governance-and-political-oversight-of-the-future-relationship.html

4. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-4-mobility-framework.html

5. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-5-services-and-investment.html

6. https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2018/07/exclusive-dexeus-alternative-brexit-white-paper-canada-plus-plus-plus-6-financial-services.html

The takeaway is that if you develop an unrealistic plan (Chequers) anyone can trump it with pure fantasy, as here. It's an argument for engaging with reality.

Interesting that O'Mara asks for patience. Typically people are not patient with their MPs, I would guess.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I’ve gone off Clegg in recent months, but even so, I still can’t believe the residents of Sheffield Hallam kicked him out for Jared O’Mara.

Far too many Tories for Clegg thought Clegg was safe this time.

Including you?

No, after the locals in May 2017 I said on PB I thought Clegg was at risk.

I voted for Clegg as part of a vote swap to help the Tories gain North East Derbyshire.

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You just know this is going to be amazing:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1017497372782362625?s=21

He's a baw hair away from challenging Cohen to a duel.

I'm hearing his words spoken by the voice of Foghorn Leghorn.

Boy, I say boy, that's going to be stuck in my head now.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You just know this is going to be amazing:

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1017497372782362625?s=21

He's a baw hair away from challenging Cohen to a duel.

I'm hearing his words spoken by the voice of Foghorn Leghorn.

Boy, I say boy, that's going to be stuck in my head now.

Yosemite Sam was the one who always liked challenging people to duels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1oNz92qJzw

BBC 10pm news reports Trump has told the Sun newspaper that if it is soft Brexit there may be no trade deal with the USA. Great news for Boris and Mogg, less so for May

HYUFD said:

BBC 10pm news reports Trump has told the Sun newspaper that if it is soft Brexit there may be no trade deal with the USA. Great news for Boris and Mogg, less so for May

A much stronger intervention on one side of our Brexit debate than previously.

Sounds like it would play pretty strongly with Tory members, even those that don't like Trump. Surely more resignations and rebellions will come.

JRM and co, send in your letters, have the damn contest, this need resolving.

With the May plan also suggested as being not far enough for the EU anyway, it has to be close to dead? The party can accept plenty of compromises to get a deal, despite loud grumbling, but if both the EU and the USA are united in thinking her proposal not good enough (in different ways) it has to be a nonstarter? Sure they might say it is 80% done or whatever, but that's no good if she cannot bend on the rest.

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1017516111326261249

TheScreamingEagles said:

I expect the voters to give a boost to Mrs May in the polls after this intervention.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017515584798580736

Don't tell me - he "mansplained" it to her?

Is it (theoretically) possible for a government to cut short a foreign leader's visit? Can Theresa just show up tomorrow morning at Donald's room with some plane tickets for him?

In all seriousness, it surely isn't nice for a visiting dignitary to be talking up someone else as PM. I hope we don't go there and say 'Damn, Hilary would have been a great president' in an official capacity.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/sophie_gadd/status/1017515279360970753

'Tory rebels' is not a sufficient descriptor - May has been fighting off different groups of rebels for some time.

Danny565 said:

Is it (theoretically) possible for a government to cut short a foreign leader's visit? Can Theresa just show up tomorrow morning at Donald's room with some plane tickets for him?

Nah she’s too rubbish to do that. But if she did, she would literally rocket in the polls.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

BBC 10pm news reports Trump has told the Sun newspaper that if it is soft Brexit there may be no trade deal with the USA. Great news for Boris and Mogg, less so for May

A much stronger intervention on one side of our Brexit debate than previously.

Sounds like it would play pretty strongly with Tory members, even those that don't like Trump. Surely more resignations and rebellions will come.

JRM and co, send in your letters, have the damn contest, this need resolving.

With the May plan also suggested as being not far enough for the EU anyway, it has to be close to dead? The party can accept plenty of compromises to get a deal, despite loud grumbling, but if both the EU and the USA are united in thinking her proposal not good enough (in different ways) it has to be a nonstarter? Sure they might say it is 80% done or whatever, but that's no good if she cannot bend on the rest.

As I have said May likely gets a transition deal and ever lasting FTA negotiations which the EU never quite agree are complete. Eventually the choice will be between that and staying in the EU in all but name (perhaps ultimately rejoining the Single Market and Customs Union) or leaving fully and going to WTO terms

In which case the Tories should have their little fight and determine right now if they can remain a single party behind one of those options. This moaning, but not provoking challenges to prevent things, is matched in tedium only by comments like mine talking about it.

I am a natural optimist* but God I have nothing but contempt for (hardline) Leavers.

They've fucked the country and they've fucked the Tory party.

A fie upon them.

*Except in sport.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I expect the voters to give a boost to Mrs May in the polls after this intervention.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017515584798580736

UKIP are on 7% today with Yougov. It is not Remainers May has been losing over the last week but Leavers.

Most Trump haters would not touch the Tories with a bargepole

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am a natural optimist* but God I have nothing but contempt for (hardline) Leavers.

They've fucked the country and they've fucked the Tory party.

A fie upon them.

*Except in sport.

Blame Dave:

"First you gave the Leavers their Referendum, and then you let them go and win it!"