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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit equivocator Corbyn isn’t doing too badly with Remainers

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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    I am old enough to remember when it was outrageous for a US president to comment on UK politics. Or maybe that rule only applied to half African ones ;-)

    No it applied across the board and was respected by all, but Don Trump doesn't do diplomacy, in fact I'd be surprised if he can spell the word.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Good for Bulgaria on making progress with Euro membership. They have already pegged their currency to the single currency, so they may as well go all-in and join it.

    Same for Denmark.

    Haven't the Danes had a referendum on Euro membership?
    They did, and they rejected it. However, as long as their currency is pegged to the Euro, as it has been since inception (and before that the Deutschmark), they have no independent monetary policy. They lack the key benefit of having their own currency, while incurring conversion costs with their biggest trading partner on a currency basis.

    Then again, they’re rich enough that it’s not too much of a problem!
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Sun front page:
    https://twitter.com/montie/status/1017518746053865480?s=21
    Trump really wants to kill any chance that Boris may have to win the Conservative leadership, doesn’t he....

    I expect most Tory members will agree with Trump's comments
    MPs will know by now that Trump is toxic though....
    Trump may be toxic in the UK for most voters but Brexit is not
    Hard Brexit will be an utter disaster.

    If May falls or the Chequers agreement does I will at that time declare for remain and back a peoples vote
    Fine but you voted Remain anyway and Leave won
    I have backed leave ever since the result but the Brexiteers are driving a hard Brexit with a real threat to tens of thousands of jobs in North Wales and was not part of the deal as far as Inam concerned. It is Mays deal or remain
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2018
    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after given the irreconcilable Corbynite and Blairite wings. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers and maybe the LDs too.

    The latter two have more in common with each other than their current party membership
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I’ll laugh my arse off if it turns out that Trump has emboldened the one or two more Tories needed to reach 48 letters for a VoNC.

    Merkel gets a lot of stick from the misogynistic loon brigade on here, but I don’t recall her interfering in domestic U.K. politics.

    Well she, along with Corbyn, is the person most responsible for the vote to leave, although it's true that was collateral damage rather than her intention.
    Bizarre comment Johnson, Gove, Farage and above all Cameron bare a greater responsibility.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    RoyalBlue said:

    Good for Bulgaria on making progress with Euro membership. They have already pegged their currency to the single currency, so they may as well go all-in and join it.

    Same for Denmark.

    More Bulgarians oppose the Euro than support it and vastly more Danes oppose it, the latter having voted against it by referendum
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Good for Bulgaria on making progress with Euro membership. They have already pegged their currency to the single currency, so they may as well go all-in and join it.

    Same for Denmark.

    More Bulgarians oppose the Euro than support it and vastly more Danes oppose it, the latter having voted against it by referendum
    A pegged currency can of course be unpegged if necessary. ERM.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Jonathan said:

    I’ll laugh my arse off if it turns out that Trump has emboldened the one or two more Tories needed to reach 48 letters for a VoNC.

    Merkel gets a lot of stick from the misogynistic loon brigade on here, but I don’t recall her interfering in domestic U.K. politics.

    Well she, along with Corbyn, is the person most responsible for the vote to leave, although it's true that was collateral damage rather than her intention.
    Bizarre comment Johnson, Gove, Farage and above all Cameron bare a greater responsibility.
    Sad to see Nabavi fall in with a classic Brexit meme.

    “It’s not fair, she made me do it.”
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Real mood change on Question Time about Brexit today. The Chequers blow up seems to have blown away any remaining thoughts people had about a bright future after Brexit.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    I don't get the fawning comments. She has attempted to court Trump, so what? So have others. It hasn't worked.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    The LDs could split too. The Greens have oddly pre-split themselves. From the other direction, a UKIP member might agree with himself (or herself) too one day.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Trump has insulted Canada, Germany, France, the EU as a whole, Japan, Mexico, and pretty much anyone else whom he has heard of, with the notable exception of Putin's Russia. Since he is clearly a temporary aberration in the history of a great nation, and any trade deal with the US won't happen until well after he has gone, why would anyone take anything he says seriously?

    I find it amazing that there are still some people who think that Trump's almost complete* refusal to directly criticise Russia or Putin is just some happy coincidence. Why does Trump freely and repeatedly criticise his neighbours and allies, but almost never does so with Russian and Putin, and in fact frequently praises them? He acts as though he's wary of crossing a line.

    * I think there are only a few occassions when Trump has grudgingly criticised Russia, and even then there has been some equivocation.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323

    Real mood change on Question Time about Brexit today. The Chequers blow up seems to have blown away any remaining thoughts people had about a bright future after Brexit.

    Not listening - are they rejecting Brexit or happy for hard Brexit
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    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    There is nothing for it, but to use the ultimate bad language. May is the Tory Gordon Brown. Greasy Pole Champion and nothing else.

    Labour took too long to realise what Brown was doing to them. Now the Tory’s make the same mistake.

    David to Harriet “what are you clapping that for, you voted for it?”
    Harriet “Eds my leader and I support him”

    Well we know how that turned out. How principleless, opportunist, loyalist brown nosing pee panting spineless ignorant shorttermist drivel always turns out.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited July 2018

    welshowl said:

    I’ll laugh my arse off if it turns out that Trump has emboldened the one or two more Tories needed to reach 48 letters for a VoNC.

    Merkel gets a lot of stick from the misogynistic loon brigade on here, but I don’t recall her interfering in domestic U.K. politics.

    Not intentionally for sure. But boy has she big time indirectly, and by her glaring omission to take Cameron seriously when he asked for reform.

    I’m sure she’s mortified deep down at what she has accidentally helped to wrought.
    I’m sure.
    And I’m sure you’re mortified deep down at what you accidentally helped to work.
    Actually I’m not. I passionately believe the EU is dreadful for democracy, and we’ve avoided this debate for sixty years. It’s long overdue. I’m looking at living in a responsive ( as opposed to a nominal) democracy in twenty years time. I do not believe that’s compatible with being in the EU

    It’s so fundamental to me frankly the economics is totally secondary. Not that I believe the doommongers frankly. As I’ve said to you in the past, our company will be fine whatever.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Nobody will make a long-term deal with the US until sanity is restored. Or rather, any seeal made cannot be relied upon. That is a fundamental weakness inherent with Trump. Weather the storm.

    Yes I agree with that. Anyone trusting a man who lies almost all the time is a damn fool. You can't deal with Trump, he will trash anything you have agreed as soon as he's found his phone.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I like Melania. :D

    Especially that leather flying jacket, stiletto look, tres chic.
    One thing that is frequently overlooked in the political argy-bargy is that Melania Trump genuinely is a stunningly beautiful and graceful woman who carries herself very well. I can't remember a Presidential consort being that poised.
    Melania is the most beautiful First Lady since Jackie Kennedy, though at least JFK had classical good looks and did not look like he was on his fifth burger of the day unlike The Donald. I think we can probably say Melania really married Donald's bank account
    Ah, it could be love, y'never know. People are weird.
    It could be Melania would love an overweight 72 year old if he was a retired mechanic from Ohio rather than a billionaire from New York I suppose. However the odds are not high
    It’s security she married not money per se (although in this case they are related)
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    glw said:

    Trump has insulted Canada, Germany, France, the EU as a whole, Japan, Mexico, and pretty much anyone else whom he has heard of, with the notable exception of Putin's Russia. Since he is clearly a temporary aberration in the history of a great nation, and any trade deal with the US won't happen until well after he has gone, why would anyone take anything he says seriously?

    I find it amazing that there are still some people who think that Trump's almost complete* refusal to directly criticise Russia or Putin is just some happy coincidence. Why does Trump freely and repeatedly criticise his neighbours and allies, but almost never does so with Russian and Putin, and in fact frequently praises them? He acts as though he's wary of crossing a line.

    * I think there are only a few occassions when Trump has grudgingly criticised Russia, and even then there has been some equivocation.
    +1.

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    glw said:

    I am old enough to remember when it was outrageous for a US president to comment on UK politics. Or maybe that rule only applied to half African ones ;-)

    No it applied across the board and was respected by all, but Don Trump doesn't do diplomacy, in fact I'd be surprised if he can spell the word.
    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    He commented on the probability of a US trade deal
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323

    There is nothing for it, but to use the ultimate bad language. May is the Tory Gordon Brown. Greasy Pole Champion and nothing else.

    Labour took too long to realise what Brown was doing to them. Now the Tory’s make the same mistake.

    David to Harriet “what are you clapping that for, you voted for it?”
    Harriet “Eds my leader and I support him”

    Well we know how that turned out. How principleless, opportunist, loyalist brown nosing pee panting spineless ignorant shorttermist drivel always turns out.

    That is a pretty colourful last paragraph but fairly accurate
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    I’ll laugh my arse off if it turns out that Trump has emboldened the one or two more Tories needed to reach 48 letters for a VoNC.

    Merkel gets a lot of stick from the misogynistic loon brigade on here, but I don’t recall her interfering in domestic U.K. politics.

    Well she, along with Corbyn, is the person most responsible for the vote to leave, although it's true that was collateral damage rather than her intention.
    Bizarre comment Johnson, Gove, Farage and above all Cameron bare a greater responsibility.
    that's a naked argument
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
    I heard Owen Patterson on the radio earlier saying the White Paper was terrible, because it would miss the opportunity to import cheaper mangos from India. And i only slightly summarise.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2018

    There is nothing for it, but to use the ultimate bad language. May is the Tory Gordon Brown. Greasy Pole Champion and nothing else.

    Labour took too long to realise what Brown was doing to them. Now the Tory’s make the same mistake.

    David to Harriet “what are you clapping that for, you voted for it?”
    Harriet “Eds my leader and I support him”

    Well we know how that turned out. How principleless, opportunist, loyalist brown nosing pee panting spineless ignorant shorttermist drivel always turns out.

    Ed Miliband had the support of the Labour membership on renouncing the Iraq War though and later on Syria intervention unlike May on soft Brexit with the Tory membership
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
    I heard Owen Patterson on the radio earlier saying the White Paper was terrible, because it would miss the opportunity to import cheaper mangos from India. And i only slightly summarise.
    It will all be alright then... we are in such a mess.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Charles said:

    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    Of course not...
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017515584798580736
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    chloechloe Posts: 308

    Charles said:

    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    Of course not...
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017515584798580736
    And May is quite correct to not listen to Trump. He won’t do a decent deal anyway America First and all that.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time, (and sometimes the audience as well). If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328
    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
    I heard Owen Patterson on the radio earlier saying the White Paper was terrible, because it would miss the opportunity to import cheaper mangos from India. And i only slightly summarise.
    By "coincidence" I'm drinking mango-flavoured diet coke - not too bad actually :)
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Charles said:

    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    Of course not...
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1017515584798580736
    Surely the only trade "expertise" Trump has shown from his time in office so far is how to get rid of trade deals and put up trade barriers?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
    I heard Owen Patterson on the radio earlier saying the White Paper was terrible, because it would miss the opportunity to import cheaper mangos from India. And i only slightly summarise.
    It will all be alright then... we are in such a mess.
    Yep. Unless the Tories can agree, right now, to positively pursue a plan (of some kind) with a sense of unity, or Labour back the government plan, all this talk of deals is pointless.

    Neither looks remotely likely. Therefore, we crash out, as the negative impacts of that won't be felt soon enough to remain either. It won't be Mad Max, but it's not looking good.

    Night all.
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    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    Charles said:

    glw said:

    I am old enough to remember when it was outrageous for a US president to comment on UK politics. Or maybe that rule only applied to half African ones ;-)

    No it applied across the board and was respected by all, but Don Trump doesn't do diplomacy, in fact I'd be surprised if he can spell the word.
    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    He commented on the probability of a US trade deal
    He did both, Charles, it's plain as day.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I would vote for that tomorrow.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    Paul Joseph Watson has managed to get his face on the front page of the UKIP website, something which he's boasting about on Twitter.

    http://www.ukip.org/
    https://twitter.com/PrisonPlanet
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    You think Chuka and anyone else would join a Tory breakaway faction? That is what is utter rubbish. There's a reason neither he nor Soubry have done more than moan, why the LDs are moribund, why even those Lab MPs who thought Corbyn would see the party crushed in 2017 still backed him for PM - none of them are going anywhere to join together, certainly not in significant numbers. The tribalism is too strong. A tory split is only possible because, on Brexit, and their being in government, makes their agreement impossible. And even then most will just stay put and just make a working government impossible.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    glw said:

    I am old enough to remember when it was outrageous for a US president to comment on UK politics. Or maybe that rule only applied to half African ones ;-)

    No it applied across the board and was respected by all, but Don Trump doesn't do diplomacy, in fact I'd be surprised if he can spell the word.
    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    He commented on the probability of a US trade deal
    He did both, Charles, it's plain as day.
    I don't see how commenting on Boris as pm material and telling us that May negotiated poorly could be classed as not commentating on UK politics
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    glw said:

    I am old enough to remember when it was outrageous for a US president to comment on UK politics. Or maybe that rule only applied to half African ones ;-)

    No it applied across the board and was respected by all, but Don Trump doesn't do diplomacy, in fact I'd be surprised if he can spell the word.
    He’s not commenting on U.K. politics

    He commented on the probability of a US trade deal
    He did both, Charles, it's plain as day.
    Charles is going on full on Trumpist.
    It’s when Brexit metastasises. Sadly, it’s usually fatal - at least for the brain - although some on here prove it’s possible to continue posting in an entirely vegetative state.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    Everyone just needs to accept right now that the situation is working against an impossible deadline and they should just go with something that keeps the country moving. If they want to seek to open up the debate later, after securing a clear mandate to do so in an election, that is up to them.
    I think that is what May has decided is the best she can do, even if she took far far too long to decide it when it was clear a long time ago she would never, ever, be able to reconcile the Grieves with the Rees-Moggs. Problem is the sides won't accept we need something to keep the country moving and open it up again later.

    I don't see how a deal happens here, despite the confidence of HYUFD.
    I heard Owen Patterson on the radio earlier saying the White Paper was terrible, because it would miss the opportunity to import cheaper mangos from India. And i only slightly summarise.
    By "coincidence" I'm drinking mango-flavoured diet coke - not too bad actually :)
    virtue signalling!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
    Gina Miller would make a good Conservative MP.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
    The problem is with politicians behaving like this we can't be surprised if everyone else follows their example and a culture of trying to shout the loudest takes hold amongst the population at large. The concept of people taking it in turns to talk during a discussion seems to be dying out.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018
    Listening to Question Time made me wonder if there are any senior Labour politicians less articulate than Barry Gardiner?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2018
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    The LDs could split too. The Greens have oddly pre-split themselves. From the other direction, a UKIP member might agree with himself (or herself) too one day.
    The Greens would likely join the Corbynite Labour Party in most cases and the remaining UKIP voters the hard Brexit Tory Party.

    It would be a much needed realignment also reflecting political realignments across the western world as the 20th century divide between capitalism and socialism of varying degrees is replaced by the 21st century divide between those who put the nation state and tradution first or globalisation and liberalism first.

    Mogg and Corbyn would be in the former group for example, Blair and Cameron in the latter group
  • Options
    chloechloe Posts: 308
    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    And they won’t compromise at all.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
    Gina Miller would make a good Conservative MP.
    Conservative?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    A very succinct summation of the problem (although perhaps not in a landslide). But from the very beginning some always claimed only their Brexit was true Brexit, and that has ramped up. I don't know if May's plan is a very good one - as I've noted even the BBC's summary indicated it was not, for leavers or the EU - but the pretence that only one kind of exit is acceptable is one of the key factors in causing our issues (and yes, the EU have played a much tougher negotiation than I expected from them).
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    isn't that democracy?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Floater said:

    I am a natural optimist* but God I have nothing but contempt for (hardline) Leavers.

    They've fucked the country and they've fucked the Tory party.

    A fie upon them.

    *Except in sport.

    Remind me who offered these people a vote and then didn't make a convincing case for staying?

    ah yes - the main stream of the tory party
    You won, you're going to have to explain why you said no deal was Project Fear if it happens.

    They won't blame the man who warned about it.

    You won, you will own it.
    If only your party were competent enough to deliver a decent deal.

    Plus of course the one killer fact... IF leaving will be so bad (and it really shouldn't be) explain to me why your genius leader took the risk.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    AndyJS said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
    Gina Miller would make a good Conservative MP.
    Conservative?
    Lib Dem surely
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Roger said:

    Listening to Question Time made me wonder if there are any senior Labour politicians less articulate than Barry Gardiner?

    define senior
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    I am a natural optimist* but God I have nothing but contempt for (hardline) Leavers.

    They've fucked the country and they've fucked the Tory party.

    A fie upon them.

    *Except in sport.

    Remind me who offered these people a vote and then didn't make a convincing case for staying?

    ah yes - the main stream of the tory party
    You won, you're going to have to explain why you said no deal was Project Fear if it happens.

    They won't blame the man who warned about it.

    You won, you will own it.
    If only your party were competent enough to deliver a decent deal.

    Plus of course the one killer fact... IF leaving will be so bad (and it really shouldn't be) explain to me why your genius leader took the risk.
    I see you also have tried to put words in my mouth.

    LAWYERS AND POLITICIANS EH
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2018
    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    60% soft Brexit, 40% hard Brexit at most I expect. Probably more like 55% to 45%
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Roger said:

    Listening to Question Time made me wonder if there are any senior Labour politicians less articulate than Barry Gardiner?

    Less articulate? I think he's one of the most articulate Labour MPs, regardless of whether one agrees with what he says.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    AndyJS said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    AndyJS said:

    Question Time:

    As usual, most of the panellists talking at the same time. If you watch editions of Question Time from the 1980s and 1990s it was very rare for that to happen.

    The quality of our politicians has undoubtedly declined. One can get far greater rewards with less risk and without all the nonsense politicos have to deal with in many industries, so should we be surprised?
    Gina Miller would make a good Conservative MP.
    Conservative?
    I'm thinking of the coming realignment when the Tories go back to being a pragmatic pro-EU party.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328
    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    You think Chuka and anyone else would join a Tory breakaway faction? That is what is utter rubbish. There's a reason neither he nor Soubry have done more than moan, why the LDs are moribund, why even those Lab MPs who thought Corbyn would see the party crushed in 2017 still backed him for PM - none of them are going anywhere to join together, certainly not in significant numbers. The tribalism is too strong. A tory split is only possible because, on Brexit, and their being in government, makes their agreement impossible. And even then most will just stay put and just make a working government impossible.
    Absolutely, indeed despite your denials he is already in talks for just such a new party in the event Corbynistas maintain an indefinite hold over the Labour Party. It would also be a breakaway centrist party not a breakaway Tory Party.

    You only have to see En Marche made up of breakaway Les Republicains and Socialist politicians as an example of how quickly a new centrist party can emerge under a charismatic leader
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
  • Options
    LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    There is nothing for it, but to use the ultimate bad language. May is the Tory Gordon Brown. Greasy Pole Champion and nothing else.

    Labour took too long to realise what Brown was doing to them. Now the Tory’s make the same mistake.

    David to Harriet “what are you clapping that for, you voted for it?”
    Harriet “Eds my leader and I support him”

    Well we know how that turned out. How principleless, opportunist, loyalist brown nosing pee panting spineless ignorant shorttermist drivel always turns out.

    That is a pretty colourful last paragraph but fairly accurate
    I was thinking of you as I wrote it.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Probably can wait until the deficit is finally gone, paid for out of savings on interest payments perhaps?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    You think Chuka and anyone else would join a Tory breakaway faction? That is what is utter rubbish. There's a reason neither he nor Soubry have done more than moan, why the LDs are moribund, why even those Lab MPs who thought Corbyn would see the party crushed in 2017 still backed him for PM - none of them are going anywhere to join together, certainly not in significant numbers. The tribalism is too strong. A tory split is only possible because, on Brexit, and their being in government, makes their agreement impossible. And even then most will just stay put and just make a working government impossible.
    Absolutely, indeed despite your denials he is already in talks for just such a new party in the event Corbynistas maintain an indefinite hold over the Labour Party. It would also be a breakaway centrist party not a breakaway Tory Party.

    You only have to see En Marche made up of breakaway Les Republicains and Socialist politicians as an example of how quickly a new centrist party can emerge under a charismatic leader
    Talking about it is very different from doing it. That they've talked about it so long with nothing coming from it is proof it will go no further.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Listening to Question Time made me wonder if there are any senior Labour politicians less articulate than Barry Gardiner?

    define senior
    Shadow Cabinet
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers?
    No, I haven't, but I see Roger is racist against people with Aspergers.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
    Does not stop it being true
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    No that is not true. You are falling for JRM , who has at most 25% of the MPs. I may be a minority in the membership but you cannot say most back a hard Brexit. Even JRM wants a deal, not a hard Brexit.

    Please do not try to belittle my contribution to my party over the last 55 years
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    You think Chuka and anyone else would join a Tory breakaway faction? That is what is utter rubbish. There's a reason neither he nor Soubry have done more than moan, sible.
    Absolutely, indeed despite your denials he is already in talks for just such a new party in the event Corbynistas maintain an indefinite hold over the Labour Party. It would also be a breakaway centrist party not a breakaway Tory Party.

    You only have to see En Marche made up of breakaway Les Republicains and Socialist politicians as an example of how quickly a new centrist party can emerge under a charismatic leader
    Talking about it is very different from doing it. That they've talked about it so long with nothing coming from it is proof it will go no further.
    If the Corbynites are still in control of Labour in 5 years and hard Brexiteers in control of the Tories it will happen, it would be a question of if not when
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323

    There is nothing for it, but to use the ultimate bad language. May is the Tory Gordon Brown. Greasy Pole Champion and nothing else.

    Labour took too long to realise what Brown was doing to them. Now the Tory’s make the same mistake.

    David to Harriet “what are you clapping that for, you voted for it?”
    Harriet “Eds my leader and I support him”

    Well we know how that turned out. How principleless, opportunist, loyalist brown nosing pee panting spineless ignorant shorttermist drivel always turns out.

    That is a pretty colourful last paragraph but fairly accurate
    I was thinking of you as I wrote it.
    Really
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
    Does not stop it being true
    Actually, polling has suggested the exact inverse for approximately the last 12 months.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328
    RobD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Good for Bulgaria on making progress with Euro membership. They have already pegged their currency to the single currency, so they may as well go all-in and join it.

    Same for Denmark.

    Haven't the Danes had a referendum on Euro membership?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_euro_referendum,_2000

    "LEAVE" 53.2%
    "REMAIN" 46.8%

    :)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
    I didn't say they didn't. Not everyone who voted leave backs a no deal Brexit. May's deal might lose the tories more seats, but no deal will still loSE them some too.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    You think Chuka and anyone else would join a Tory breakaway faction? That is what is utter rubbish. There's a reason neither he nor Soubry have done more than moan, why the LDs are moribund, why even those Lab MPs who thought Corbyn would see the party crushed in 2017 still backed him for PM - none of them are going anywhere to join together, certainly not in significant numbers. The tribalism is too strong. A tory split is only possible because, on Brexit, and their being in government, makes their agreement impossible. And even then most will just stay put and just make a working government impossible.
    Absolutely, indeed despite your denials he is already in talks for just such a new party in the event Corbynistas maintain an indefinite hold over the Labour Party. It would also be a breakaway centrist party not a breakaway Tory Party.

    You only have to see En Marche made up of breakaway Les Republicains and Socialist politicians as an example of how quickly a new centrist party can emerge under a charismatic leader
    The flaw there is charismatic and Chuka in the same line of argument.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    No that is not true. You are falling for JRM , who has at most 25% of the MPs. I may be a minority in the membership but you cannot say most back a hard Brexit. Even JRM wants a deal, not a hard Brexit.

    Please do not try to belittle my contribution to my party over the last 55 years
    No it is true. Both Yougov and Conservative Home have about 60% of members rejecting May's deal and Tory members preferring hard Brexit to soft Brexit.

    Plenty of Blairites also worked hard in Labour too that does not mean they are not losing control of their party too
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    Portillo is another one making the slow intellectual journey back to Remain.

    His colony nonsense shows how toxic the discourse now is, though. A non vassal Brexit was (maybe still is) possible but only using EEA as a halfway house.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,798

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    Turns out you've been closest to being right this whole time.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    No that is not true. You are falling for JRM , who has at most 25% of the MPs. I may be a minority in the membership but you cannot say most back a hard Brexit. Even JRM wants a deal, not a hard Brexit.

    Please do not try to belittle my contribution to my party over the last 55 years
    No it is true. Both Yougov and Conservative Home have about 60% of members rejecting May's deal and Tory members preferring hard Brexit to soft Brexit.

    Plenty of Blairites also worked hard in Labour too that does not mean they are not losing control of their party too
    Wth respect I think you are getting carried away
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers?
    No, I haven't, but I see Roger is racist against people with Aspergers.
    Is Aspergers a race? But ignoring that technicality what would be wrong with asking whether you have Aspergers when you appear to have the symptoms?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
    Does not stop it being true
    Actually, polling has suggested the exact inverse for approximately the last 12 months.
    No, polling is also indistinguishable from that pre referendum
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
    I didn't say they didn't. Not everyone who voted leave backs a no deal Brexit. May's deal might lose the tories more seats, but no deal will still loSE them some too.
    No deal in North Wales and Cheshire will wipe the conservatives out

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,857
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as cloerall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
    To be fair, Sunil is just one of many Brexiters whose only remaining argument is, “but the people voted for it”. Sunil just can’t be bothered attempting elegant variation.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    kle4 said:

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    Turns out you've been closest to being right this whole time.
    I agree and I never thought I would say that.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
    I didn't say they didn't. Not everyone who voted leave backs a no deal Brexit. May's deal might lose the tories more seats, but no deal will still loSE them some too.
    If they were going to go Tory Remain seats likely went Labour or LD in 2017 when May backed hard Brexit, at least in theory, next time no deal could well see some Labour Remain seats go LD and some Labour Leave seats going Tory
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as cloerall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, and a three way discussion and vote. It wasn’t structured binary last time to give the voters a voice but simply contrive a remain win. To genuinely give the voters a steer for parliament to then act on, and in so doing ensuring a proper educational debate, it would have contained 3 or 4 options last time.
    It's no different to something like the Monarchy in Australia. Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers? You've used exactly the same post many hundreds of times.
    To be fair, Sunil is just one of many Brexiters whose only remaining argument is, “but the people voted for it”. Sunil just can’t be bothered attempting elegant variation.
    Me? Are you kidding? Hey, I was with you all the time! That was beautiful! Did you see the way the Leavers fell into our trap! Ha ha!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,328

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    Portillo is another one making the slow intellectual journey back to Remain.

    His colony nonsense shows how toxic the discourse now is, though. A non vassal Brexit was (maybe still is) possible but only using EEA as a halfway house.
    Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

    Who Dares Wins!

    WE dare!

    WE will WIN!
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    He is obviously slower than I thought .....
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,986

    kle4 said:

    Portillo: It's just dawned on me that there are only two possible outcomes of Brexit: to be a colony of the EU or to be a member of the EU.

    Turns out you've been closest to being right this whole time.
    I agree and I never thought I would say that.
    Another point of agreement between us. Mr Glenn has been nothing if not consistent. And he may turn out to have been correct as well.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.
    At which point Labour would surely split soon after. The Corbynistas keeping the Labour Party and the hard Brexiteers the Tory Party and the Blairites joining with Tory Remainers.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the not less.
    Utter rubbish. A Tory split would lead to the creation of a UK En Marche style party within months.

    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
    I didn't say they didn't. Not everyone who voted leave backs a no deal Brexit. May's deal might lose the tories more seats, but no deal will still loSE them some too.
    No deal in North Wales and Cheshire will wipe the conservatives out

    No Deal will only be a prospect as I have already made clear if the EU refuse a FTA in the transition period.

    Then it will be accepting continued transition that will cost the Tories seats, especially Leave seats with a rising UKIP vote not no deal
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,323
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    One fear I have is that even, someone, May gets a version of her plan through so we at least get some deal, even a bad one, there is clearly so much anger in the Tory party over it that whoever wins the leadership next time will probably do so on a promise to change everything about it, so the whole damn thing will just go on for even more years.

    The Conservative Party will surely split. The two sides are irreconcilable and I say this having voted for them in the past.

    The latter two have more in common with each other thsn their current party membership
    I think you underestimate that Labour will draw strength from the Tory weakness. A tory split would ensure Labour will win, and we know that the naysayers to Corbyn still back a Labour government under Corbyn to anything else (except Woodcock). Knowing he will win because of a Tory split will make them more inclined to stick together, not less.
    Don't you realise Chuka Umunna has been talking to Anna Soubry for months about forming a new SDP style party as he cannot stand Corbyn and his socialism and lack of support for the single market much longer?
    I doubt the party will split but if JRM engineers a VNOC in the government then the prospects are that the party would be decimated and lots of these Brexiteers will lose their seats even though they fought against a soft Brexit
    Except you ignore the fact you are a minority in the current Tory Party, most Tories and most Tory seats back hard Brexit
    Most, not all, and in the right places that will mean many lost seats.
    Nope as 408 out of 650 Westminster seats voted Leave, indeed the Tories have a majority of Leave seats just like Labour, just Labour also has a higher percentage of Remain seats
    I didn't say they didn't. Not everyone who voted leave backs a no deal Brexit. May's deal might lose the tories more seats, but no deal will still loSE them some too.
    If they were going to go Tory Remain seats likely went Labour or LD in 2017 when May backed hard Brexit, at least in theory, next time no deal could well see some Labour Remain seats go LD and some Labour Leave seats going Tory
    You do not seem to comprehend just how bad a no deal would be especially in the short term

    Collapsed pound and market, capital flight and cancelled investment, indeed no difference to Corbyn wnning an election
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    chloe said:

    alex. said:

    I think we are now in a situation where no potential solution has a majority in either the Commons or the electorate (including no deal and even exiting Brexit - if that is possible). May's approach is as close to an overall compromise as we are likely to see. If it is wiped out then how on earth will a new status quo that is remotely stable be achieved?

    I think most of the electorate probably just want the whole d*mn thing over with and are fed up with the politicians for not just getting on with it. Given that one day the 'rebels' are the remainers and the next they are leavers it's a pox on all their houses. Even worse is that every time anyone rebels they hide behind the excuse that their position is not necessarily based on fundamental principle, but just because the people will get angry that it is not what the voted (or didn't) for.
    Nobody really knows why people voted the way they did. Both campaigns were awful. The government can’t agree what to do so how about postponing A50 and have a people’s vote with remain, SIngle market and WTO options with factual information about what each option entails?
    It may happen (possibly a provisionally agreed compromise deal instead of Single Market).The timing and logistics would be horrible and ther would have to be an extension of leaving date I suspect. STV? I'm guessing May's deal would win then!
    Remain would win such a vote by a landslide against this backdrop, 4 options last time.
    Ask a straight question - do you want to abolish the monarchy - and abolition wins. Put the monarchy up against any predetermined alternative and abolition loses.

    The problem with Brexit of course is that Remain + Soft Brexiteers beats Hard Brexiteers by a landslide. But Hard Brexiteers claim to have a majority of the leave vote so think that they should hold sway, because the opinions of remainers don't matter.

    Leave 52%
    Remain 48%

    :innocent:
    Have you got Aspergers?
    No, I haven't, but I see Roger is racist against people with Aspergers.
    Is Aspergers a race? But ignoring that technicality what would be wrong with asking whether you have Aspergers when you appear to have the symptoms?
    I expect most PBers have at least some Aspergers symptoms even if not fully with the condition
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Farage on This Week now
This discussion has been closed.