politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules
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Mr Glenn
"The white paper hasn’t been published yet."
It comes out on Thursday, I believe, but it will make absolutely no difference to their response. You haven't got the hang of the EU yet.0 -
Remember when we used to call them spoofs.CarlottaVance said:
Entertaining, but Fake News....Scott_P said:0 -
What I meant was that there is no urgency for them to respond. They can just sit back and watch the government implode.CD13 said:Mr Glenn
"The white paper hasn’t been published yet."
It comes out on Thursday, I believe, but it will make absolutely no difference to their response. You haven't got the hang of the EU yet.0 -
Mr Glenn,
"They can just sit back and watch the government implode."
They probably could, but being bureaucrats, I doubt they can resist the temptation to interfere.0 -
Do they have anything to respond to before the white paper is published ?CD13 said:The EU have about three days to compose a coherent response which isn't "Gotcha!", "Nowhere near good enough" , or "Tell us what you want."
I don't honestly think they are capable of doing so. Their response or lack of it may well change the political picture.0 -
Perhaps they could ask their nannies to lend a hand.Tissue_Price said:
Well, you're extrapolating from a biased data-set! In my experience the JRM fans are not always the most active campaigners.MaxPB said:That YouGov model makes no sense, JRM beats all of the other contenders, but that means there must be a huge shy-JRM contingent among the members because very few are going to vote for him that I know.
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To prevent a John Major type move, I expect.david_herdson said:
No. A leader who resigns is explicitly barred from the subsequent election. This rule was introduced during Hague's leadership, when the Party adopted its constitution.Jonathan said:Could she technically resign and stand? IE Without a confidence vote?
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I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/1016102532190474241
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Mr. 86, Hamilton's tyres held up better but late on Raikkonen was catching very quickly. I am surprised Mercedes didn't put Bottas. If it didn't work, they got more points for Hamilton. If it did, they stood a chance of depriving Vettel of the win.0
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Boris leaves his foreign guests hanging.
https://twitter.com/miro_spd/status/1016301264257372161?s=210 -
Where's Boris? Perhaps he's gone to the same dental surgeon that Major subjected himself to0
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How would they know?TheValiant said:I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/10161025321904742410 -
My Yorkiepoo could beat Williamson. Thankfully the heatwave has rendered me far too torpid to do much more than raise a languid eyebrow at the current shenanigans. In my younger days, at least the ferrets had the decency to fight _inside_ the sack.Jonathan said:
Williamson outperforming expectation by getting on the list.Scott_P said:0 -
The sound of Theresa trying to cling on.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Is that because MPs were furious about it, or because he has a Foreign Secretary to hunt down and a confidence vote to fight for his PM?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Miss Vance, that just seems odd. Surely the leadership would realise the backbenches would be outraged by briefing Labour MPs?0
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No idea. Just odd they tweeted it, it hasn't been deleted either.CarlottaVance said:
How would they know?TheValiant said:I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/1016102532190474241
Probably fake news therefore...... probably.0 -
Not to women unless you think all women are 'feminists' and only women are 'feminists'.TOPPING said:"Nobody insulted women."
Is what you said. Do you think calling feminists obnoxious bigots was not insulting?
Here's the whole thing for interested fans:
Is that what you are claiming?0 -
False Flag. We know that Brady doesn't want to receive enough letters. So if they leak they have received enough perhaps waverers won't bother.CarlottaVance said:
How would they know?TheValiant said:I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/1016102532190474241
Perhaps Boris is at this "secret" People's Front of ERG meeting and will emerge with a sheaf of letters in his hand...0 -
Afternoon all
The rules of the game may have changed in some ways but politically they haven't. When Margaret Thatcher got 85% of the MP's voting for her in 1989 few believed within a year she would be out and she didn't technically "lose" that election either - she didn't win it well enough.
Major won in 1995 but with a third of the Parliamentary Party not supporting him it was a huge blow to his authority. IF May faces a No Confidence challenge, it's all very well saying 50%+1 is enough but it wouldn't be.
If a third of the Parliamentary Party refused to support her (which is a combination of those actively voting against her and those not voting), she could survive but to what extent would her authority be broken ? I think if more than a third of the Parliamentary Party turn away from her, she'll be forced to go.0 -
The Scottish yes tory MPs will want to trigger a PM challenge because they think May will win it and be more powerful to implement a Brexit with no red lines.CarlottaVance said:
How would they know?TheValiant said:I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/10161025321904742410 -
I'm disappointed that Brady isn't producing at least hourly updates on the number of letters he has received.0
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On the plus side, the west Balkans know all about interminable and incomprehensible feuds that last for generations and are largely personality-driven, so they'll understand completely why Brexit might be delaying their conference.0
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How the 2017 general election ripped up the script for British politics
https://www.essex.ac.uk/news/2018/06/07/how-the-2017-general-election-ripped-up-the-script-for-british-politics0 -
Not a political post, but as I've noticed this one matches my birth year (1976) I just thought I'd waste a moment of your time by mentioning it0
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It struck me as very odd - as if No.10 wanted to signal to their back benchers 'we don't trust you lot, so we're briefing the opposition first'. Of course the governing party's MPs should be briefed first......and if Mrs May's timetable does not permit it, do the opposition MPs after the government.....Morris_Dancer said:Miss Vance, that just seems odd. Surely the leadership would realise the backbenches would be outraged by briefing Labour MPs?
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So he's skipped two official - and important - engagements. May should sack him.Scott_P said:0 -
You didn't say all women. You said women.Philip_Thompson said:
Not to women unless you think all women are 'feminists' and only women are 'feminists'.TOPPING said:"Nobody insulted women."
Is what you said. Do you think calling feminists obnoxious bigots was not insulting?
Here's the whole thing for interested fans:
Is that what you are claiming?0 -
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That would signal a definite challenge to May I suppose. But suppose they don't have the numbers to actually topple her? Lots of number crunching going on I'd guess.Scott_P said:0 -
The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.0
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BoZo has quit0
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And it's very hard for him not to quit having f*cked off his responsibility as Foreign Secretary to attend a top-level security meeting on hostile acts by a foreign power.Scott_P said:0 -
He should be sacked. Full stopfelix said:The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
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Timber.0
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He is not allowed toOblitusSumMe said:I'm disappointed that Brady isn't producing at least hourly updates on the number of letters he has received.
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Not sure, but I just checked and in 2016 Theresa May received 199 votes in the final ballot of MPs. If she were to receive the support of fewer MPs in a confidence vote now that would not be good. It's not far off your two-thirds threshold, which would be ~212.stodge said:Afternoon all
The rules of the game may have changed in some ways but politically they haven't. When Margaret Thatcher got 85% of the MP's voting for her in 1989 few believed within a year she would be out and she didn't technically "lose" that election either - she didn't win it well enough.
Major won in 1995 but with a third of the Parliamentary Party not supporting him it was a huge blow to his authority. IF May faces a No Confidence challenge, it's all very well saying 50%+1 is enough but it wouldn't be.
If a third of the Parliamentary Party refused to support her (which is a combination of those actively voting against her and those not voting), she could survive but to what extent would her authority be broken ? I think if more than a third of the Parliamentary Party turn away from her, she'll be forced to go.0 -
The big question now. Is that it or are there more to come.?0
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Johnson gone0
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Boris has resigned...
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Thank god he’s gone from the government.0
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Boris's career and reputation are in tatters.0
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Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He should be sacked. Full stopfelix said:The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
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Well there's a surprise. Not0
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AbsolutelyThe_Apocalypse said:Thank god he’s gone from the government.
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Nobody - some bank predicted they had a 24% chance, and the idiot media managed to headline that as "predicts Germany to win".MarkHopkins said:0 -
Thank you Boris.
That's the end of the May government then!0 -
Was he flushed, or did he dive down the pan himself ?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Bye bye Boris - that Heathrow stunt looks even feebler now. Well done to GIN1138 who called it.0
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What are the chances the selfish sausage stands down as an MP too, triggering a by-election?0
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Gove to Foreign Office?0
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I think you have to be guilty of a serious criminal offence to get fired from the Privy Council.rpjs said:
Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He should be sacked. Full stopfelix said:The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
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Peston saying he'll quit, that's Boris staying then.Scott_P said:
Edit: Lol, serves me right for having lunch and watching the tennis!0 -
I don't think that's true - there isn't anything that says he can't AFAIK. However, it's always been seen as good practice not to reveal the numbers. Confidence has multiple meanings and all apply here.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is not allowed toOblitusSumMe said:I'm disappointed that Brady isn't producing at least hourly updates on the number of letters he has received.
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Taxi for Boris.0
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TMay should just give all the vacant jobs to Gove0
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Who next? I can't see Liam hanging around, but the significance of his departure will be negligible.0
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And worse still.
He has left the foeign leaders in the lurch at the West Balkans Conference. The delegates are furious with him0 -
How far back do you have to go?Sean_F said:
I think you have to be guilty of a serious criminal offence to get fired from the Privy Council.rpjs said:
Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He should be sacked. Full stopfelix said:The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
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BBC have said he has quit.MaxPB said:
Peston saying he'll quit, that's Boris staying then.Scott_P said:
Edit: Lol, serves me right for having lunch and watching the tennis!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-447628360 -
Lets hope soCarlottaVance said:What are the chances the selfish sausage stands down as an MP too, triggering a by-election?
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Game over for both May and Boris.CarlottaVance said:
Someone tweeted earlier that Davis looks like Robin Cook and Boris looks like Clare Short. That's not quite right but it captures the mood a little.
Personally, I'd say it's more like Redwood/Portillo in 1995.-1 -
"Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage has said Boris Johnson "has the chance to save Brexit" if he quits as foreign secretary."CarlottaVance said:
I somehow doubt that.
https://news.sky.com/story/live-theresa-may-faces-crisis-as-david-davis-resigns-as-brexit-secretary-114307630 -
Bye Bye Boris: Hope you never hold any office of state ever again...0
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Just rejoice at that news and congratulate Theresa May. Rejoice.0
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Esther next?0
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All May's Christmases at once.0
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I love how all the Remainer media and people on here are trying to spin Theresa's cabinet resigning like domino's as some kind of triunph for her.
Theresa May's government is currently collapsing around her head as I predicted it would at 10pm on Friday evening (while all the Remainer media and people on here were saying what a triumph her Chequers stunt had been)0 -
One big one. Sooner or later. Later being this month.felix said:The big question now. Is that it or are there more to come.?
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All our Xmas at once - he is well goneRoger said:All May's Christmases at once
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What was that tweet about reaching the kinetic part of the car crash...
And how.
Now quite obvious why May put this off for so long.0 -
Boris gone.. Good, he is an idiot. well rid.0
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Impressive from Boris to have chosen such a bad moment to resign when he been so spoilt for choice.0
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Good. I think it's probably true to say that, unless the Conservatives have gone nuts enough to make him leader, his political career is finished. Nobody else would want him in their cabinet... surely... ???Big_G_NorthWales said:Johnson gone
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Can't wait to hear Boris' plan to avoid an NI hard border while leaving the CU.0
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Is that an oblique reference to May ?david_herdson said:
One big one. Sooner or later. Later being this month.felix said:The big question now. Is that it or are there more to come.?
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Boris who?0
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In that case time to prepare for JCPMdavid_herdson said:
One big one. Sooner or later. Later being this month.felix said:The big question now. Is that it or are there more to come.?
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I reckon Liam Fox will be the new Foreign Secretary.0
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It's hard to think of anyone with a vote in a leadership contest whose support for Boris won't have been severely diminished in recent weeks.0
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TOPPING said:
What was that tweet about reaching the kinetic part of the car crash...
And how.
Now quite obvious why May put this off for so long.
Not sure that delaying this moment is helping very much. Just gives us even less time to sort it out.
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Boris ?Richard_Nabavi said:It's hard to think of anyone with a vote in a leadership contest whose support for Boris won't have been severely diminished in recent weeks.
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May has to do something dramatic in her statement in the Commons. Just sticking to the Chequers plan won’t do.0
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Expect Brady to announce a Tory leadership election by the end of the day.0
