That YouGov model makes no sense, JRM beats all of the other contenders, but that means there must be a huge shy-JRM contingent among the members because very few are going to vote for him that I know.
Well, you're extrapolating from a biased data-set! In my experience the JRM fans are not always the most active campaigners.
Perhaps they could ask their nannies to lend a hand.
Could she technically resign and stand? IE Without a confidence vote?
No. A leader who resigns is explicitly barred from the subsequent election. This rule was introduced during Hague's leadership, when the Party adopted its constitution.
I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
Mr. 86, Hamilton's tyres held up better but late on Raikkonen was catching very quickly. I am surprised Mercedes didn't put Bottas. If it didn't work, they got more points for Hamilton. If it did, they stood a chance of depriving Vettel of the win.
I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
Williamson outperforming expectation by getting on the list.
My Yorkiepoo could beat Williamson. Thankfully the heatwave has rendered me far too torpid to do much more than raise a languid eyebrow at the current shenanigans. In my younger days, at least the ferrets had the decency to fight _inside_ the sack.
I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
The rules of the game may have changed in some ways but politically they haven't. When Margaret Thatcher got 85% of the MP's voting for her in 1989 few believed within a year she would be out and she didn't technically "lose" that election either - she didn't win it well enough.
Major won in 1995 but with a third of the Parliamentary Party not supporting him it was a huge blow to his authority. IF May faces a No Confidence challenge, it's all very well saying 50%+1 is enough but it wouldn't be.
If a third of the Parliamentary Party refused to support her (which is a combination of those actively voting against her and those not voting), she could survive but to what extent would her authority be broken ? I think if more than a third of the Parliamentary Party turn away from her, she'll be forced to go.
I see on the Scottish YES Tories twitter feed, they suggest enough letters have been received by Graham Brady to trigger a no confidence vote. Is this true? (or Fake News)
The Scottish yes tory MPs will want to trigger a PM challenge because they think May will win it and be more powerful to implement a Brexit with no red lines.
On the plus side, the west Balkans know all about interminable and incomprehensible feuds that last for generations and are largely personality-driven, so they'll understand completely why Brexit might be delaying their conference.
Miss Vance, that just seems odd. Surely the leadership would realise the backbenches would be outraged by briefing Labour MPs?
It struck me as very odd - as if No.10 wanted to signal to their back benchers 'we don't trust you lot, so we're briefing the opposition first'. Of course the governing party's MPs should be briefed first......and if Mrs May's timetable does not permit it, do the opposition MPs after the government.....
That would signal a definite challenge to May I suppose. But suppose they don't have the numbers to actually topple her? Lots of number crunching going on I'd guess.
And it's very hard for him not to quit having f*cked off his responsibility as Foreign Secretary to attend a top-level security meeting on hostile acts by a foreign power.
The rules of the game may have changed in some ways but politically they haven't. When Margaret Thatcher got 85% of the MP's voting for her in 1989 few believed within a year she would be out and she didn't technically "lose" that election either - she didn't win it well enough.
Major won in 1995 but with a third of the Parliamentary Party not supporting him it was a huge blow to his authority. IF May faces a No Confidence challenge, it's all very well saying 50%+1 is enough but it wouldn't be.
If a third of the Parliamentary Party refused to support her (which is a combination of those actively voting against her and those not voting), she could survive but to what extent would her authority be broken ? I think if more than a third of the Parliamentary Party turn away from her, she'll be forced to go.
Not sure, but I just checked and in 2016 Theresa May received 199 votes in the final ballot of MPs. If she were to receive the support of fewer MPs in a confidence vote now that would not be good. It's not far off your two-thirds threshold, which would be ~212.
The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
He should be sacked. Full stop
Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?
The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
He should be sacked. Full stop
Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?
I think you have to be guilty of a serious criminal offence to get fired from the Privy Council.
I'm disappointed that Brady isn't producing at least hourly updates on the number of letters he has received.
He is not allowed to
I don't think that's true - there isn't anything that says he can't AFAIK. However, it's always been seen as good practice not to reveal the numbers. Confidence has multiple meanings and all apply here.
The sooner Johnson quits the better. his machinations today degrade the office, his country and his party.
He should be sacked. Full stop
Seriously. he may have resigned as FSec, but May could still get him dismissed from the Privy Council for his irresponsibility this morning. Then he'd not be qualified for office again unless readmitted, and has anyone expelled from the PC ever been let back in?
I think you have to be guilty of a serious criminal offence to get fired from the Privy Council.
I love how all the Remainer media and people on here are trying to spin Theresa's cabinet resigning like domino's as some kind of triunph for her.
Theresa May's government is currently collapsing around her head as I predicted it would at 10pm on Friday evening (while all the Remainer media and people on here were saying what a triumph her Chequers stunt had been)
Good. I think it's probably true to say that, unless the Conservatives have gone nuts enough to make him leader, his political career is finished. Nobody else would want him in their cabinet... surely... ???
Comments
"The white paper hasn’t been published yet."
It comes out on Thursday, I believe, but it will make absolutely no difference to their response. You haven't got the hang of the EU yet.
"They can just sit back and watch the government implode."
They probably could, but being bureaucrats, I doubt they can resist the temptation to interfere.
https://twitter.com/YesTories/status/1016102532190474241
https://twitter.com/miro_spd/status/1016301264257372161?s=21
Probably fake news therefore...... probably.
Is that what you are claiming?
Perhaps Boris is at this "secret" People's Front of ERG meeting and will emerge with a sheaf of letters in his hand...
The rules of the game may have changed in some ways but politically they haven't. When Margaret Thatcher got 85% of the MP's voting for her in 1989 few believed within a year she would be out and she didn't technically "lose" that election either - she didn't win it well enough.
Major won in 1995 but with a third of the Parliamentary Party not supporting him it was a huge blow to his authority. IF May faces a No Confidence challenge, it's all very well saying 50%+1 is enough but it wouldn't be.
If a third of the Parliamentary Party refused to support her (which is a combination of those actively voting against her and those not voting), she could survive but to what extent would her authority be broken ? I think if more than a third of the Parliamentary Party turn away from her, she'll be forced to go.
https://www.essex.ac.uk/news/2018/06/07/how-the-2017-general-election-ripped-up-the-script-for-british-politics
That's the end of the May government then!
Edit: Lol, serves me right for having lunch and watching the tennis!
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1016322283147841536
He has left the foeign leaders in the lurch at the West Balkans Conference. The delegates are furious with him
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-44762836
Someone tweeted earlier that Davis looks like Robin Cook and Boris looks like Clare Short. That's not quite right but it captures the mood a little.
Personally, I'd say it's more like Redwood/Portillo in 1995.
I somehow doubt that.
https://news.sky.com/story/live-theresa-may-faces-crisis-as-david-davis-resigns-as-brexit-secretary-11430763
Theresa May's government is currently collapsing around her head as I predicted it would at 10pm on Friday evening (while all the Remainer media and people on here were saying what a triumph her Chequers stunt had been)
And how.
Now quite obvious why May put this off for so long.
Not sure that delaying this moment is helping very much. Just gives us even less time to sort it out.