politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Electoral Commission decision on Vote Leave should make TM
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Easier to deal with her cabinetwilliamglenn said:0 -
This is the kind of crap I really don't care about.williamglenn said:twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1014481208351383554
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Only problem is: no one can be sure of that.tlg86 said:Using the best odds, you can get a 60% return if you are sure that the winner of the World Cup comes from Brazil/Belgium/France/Uruguay.
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I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.0
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It's all such a bloody waste of money, time and intellectual capacity with huge opportunity costs, and it would mean there would be no UK left in the long term, but apart from that it's a credible plan.MaxPB said:
I think it's obvious that the current timetable in which to complete a free trade deal is unrealistic, a 7-10 year transition from full member to third country with a FTA (I think "a" is right) is the only way to get Brexit right and one which suits the UK and EU over the longer term without disrupting cross border trade and solving the Ireland issue in the near term as well as having a longer term solution.Anorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?0 -
My dad watched through the garden door. I don't think that's uncommon, in fact many people will sympathise.williamglenn said:0 -
In fairness Corbyn had a huge choice of subjects to put TM on the spot and he chose buses. That was why it was laughable. He let TM offYorkcity said:
What that they disagree with your assesment on PMqs ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is laughableCarlottaVance said:Grauniad calls it for Corbyn: (EDIT - its not (the normally reliable) Andrew Sparrow......
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/10144774426211942410 -
Jezza's PMQ strategy has nothing to do with winning in the chamber and all about the video for FaceAche / Tw@tter. Hague used to give Blair a good intellectual duffing up on a fairly regular basis and it did him no good at all.AlastairMeeks said:I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.
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It's a big issue on the doorsteps in my parts, but not the commuter side of it. Ageing folk, living in edge-of-town estates with little/no commerce, no longer able to drive. The economics of running buses often don't add up but that's the point where you start needing to work out the externalities.Pulpstar said:Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.0 -
Bit like the GE17 exit poll thenwilliamglenn said:0 -
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?0 -
Mr. Price, but a little on Mbappe[sp] after Mr. JohnL's earlier post on that.
Happily, I've also backed Uruguay at 29, so that works either way.
If England ended up playing Russia that could be a little bit spicy. Hope Croatia win.0 -
It also marks [another] contrast with the New Labour years. For all of John Prescott's talk about an "integrated transport system", buses were entirely neglected during the Blair/Brown governments, with the sole exception of the introduction of the national bus pass - which Corbyn mentioned today in not entirely positive terms: "A bus pass isn’t much use if there isn’t a bus."AlastairMeeks said:I guess the question is what is PMQs for. If it's to win debating points in the House of Commons, going on buses is daft. If it's to signal to people in the wider country that you're interested in things that really hack you off, it's potentially a good idea.
It could be easy to imagine that Corbyn still saw himself as railing against a New Labour government from the backbenches. Maybe in a political sense he is.0 -
Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
They are bloody expensive in York, it is run by first York .First group are putting prices up again this month.Pulpstar said:Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.
I live just 2 miles out of the city centre.
£ 2:50p single £5 return .
I walk if going for a drink.
Or take the car if not.As you can park in Sainsbury's for £4 for 4 hours and you get your money back if you spend over a tenner at Sainsbury's .You always need something.
Anyways £15 for a family of 2 Adults and 2 children , for two miles of travel is a lot for families struggling.0 -
I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.FrancisUrquhart said:
IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?
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I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.0 -
Providing free buses so the elderly can get out and about every day and remain physically active and mentally alert is a hell of a lot Cheaper than providing social care and healthcare because they deteriorate sooner due to social isolation.Tissue_Price said:
It's a big issue on the doorsteps in my parts, but not the commuter side of it. Ageing folk, living in edge-of-town estates with little/no commerce, no longer able to drive. The economics of running buses often don't add up but that's the point where you start needing to work out the externalities.Pulpstar said:Fare play for Corbyn standing up for bus users. The #FBPE lot on twitter seem apocolyptic about him going on it mind. I didn't realise the volume of bus journeys a year was so substantially higher than train use either - it certainly isn't an impression you'd get from twitter !!
I suspect the group most put out by him leading on bus use are train users, who are desperately over-represented amongst journalists in particular.0 -
Really suffers badly from asthma doesn't he, the poor lad.FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'
https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/10144331799969136650 -
They are only to have to play like they did in the last 20 minutes against Japan for the whole game....and defend even better.OblitusSumMe said:
I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.FrancisUrquhart said:
IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?
My concern in regards to Beligum is their defence is led by Kompany who is nowhere near the player he was of 4 years ago.
If fancy dan ball hogger plays as part of the team (which apparently he has been told in uncertain terms he has to), Brazil have shown going forward they are far ahead of everybody else.0 -
Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
I don't know, but I would guess something other than posting bogus man of the people photo opps.TheScreamingEagles said:
What was he doing during Euro 96?Theuniondivvie said:Back to the reliable, old pints and gurning act for Nige.
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/10144297557798338560 -
Though of course a lot of things will be leaving the UK. The EMA, skilled workers, industrial investment and our reputation of down to earth common sense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Said when we leave the UK instead of EUBenpointer said:
Misspoke how?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Misspoke but it was funny and she took it wellOldKingCole said:
What on earth has she done?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear Theresa. Oh dear.
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To be honest big g , if he had gone on Brexit again , she would not answer , just saying to wait until after Friday.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In fairness Corbyn had a huge choice of subjects to put TM on the spot and he chose buses. That was why it was laughable. He let TM offYorkcity said:
What that they disagree with your assesment on PMqs ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is laughableCarlottaVance said:Grauniad calls it for Corbyn: (EDIT - its not (the normally reliable) Andrew Sparrow......
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1014477442621194241
However Universal Credit will not go away.Especially when millions on legacy benefits are migrated to UC.
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Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.MaxPB said:
Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
Days since Labour have had an anti-Jew issue...0....
A key ally of Len McCluskey was pictured in a t-shirt bearing the slogan ‘Victory to the Intifada,’ it has emerged. Asquith also writes a column for Labourlist and previously worked on Jeremy Corbyn’s first leadership campaign.
https://www.theredroar.com/2018/07/top-unite-aide-in-intifada-row/0 -
Perhaps Theresa and Philip are planning to move to the Dordogne or Tuscany while they can?Recidivist said:
Though of course a lot of things will be leaving the UK. The EMA, skilled workers, industrial investment and our reputation of down to earth common sense.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Said when we leave the UK instead of EUBenpointer said:
Misspoke how?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Misspoke but it was funny and she took it wellOldKingCole said:
What on earth has she done?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear Theresa. Oh dear.
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As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.
The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them0 -
The difference is that the French were on the secessionists’ side back then.HYUFD said:US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'
https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/10144331799969136650 -
And a team that costs 30m/year in salaries. Froomestrong has a world champion and monument winner (Kwiaktowski) just to bring him his bidons.Pulpstar said:
Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.MaxPB said:
Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
I hope they don't get their suits from Jermyn Street.MaxPB said:
Surely suits from Jermyn Street, I doubt JRM even realises that M&S sell clothes.Dura_Ace said:
The ERG are paper tigers with gammon faces and M&S suits. They will do fuck all.rottenborough said:0 -
Here's the DfT's stats release on buses:
https://tinyurl.com/y94hx6rk
The 1.24bn vehicle miles compares with 0.32bn train km. Trains, of course, tend to be longer than buses and I suspect rail passenger km (65.8 billion in 2017-18) would drawf bus passenger km for which the DfT do not provide an estimate.
On journeys, the chart on page 7 shows that the gap between bus and train journeys is narrowing.
Interestingly, Rutland aside, the local authority with the lowest rate of bus journeys per head of population is Windsor and Maidenhead (11 journeys per person in 2016-17).0 -
Had to do the same. Nerves too shredded. Watched it all on catch-up three times, mindMaxPB said:
My dad watched through the garden door. I don't think that's uncommon, in fact many people will sympathise.williamglenn said:
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Lost their heads over it though.....rpjs said:
The difference is that the French were on the secessionists’ side back then.HYUFD said:US Ambassador 'Independence was not easy but nor is Brexit but with courage, confidence and conviction Britain you can make it a success'
https://mobile.twitter.com/USAmbUK/status/10144331799969136650 -
And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.HYUFD said:
As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.
The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.0 -
Javid is a leaver.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.0 -
This is worrying. Social media helping to foster a mob mentality:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whatsapp-child-sex-claims-leave-29-dead-in-indian-mob-hysteria-c56s9wfpb0 -
He voted remain and came out for remain during the referendum. He's a remainer.TOPPING said:
Javid is a leaver.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.0 -
And there was no such entity as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland until the first day of the 19th century.JonnyJimmy said:
It is the 192nd anniversary of two of the signatories' (Jefferson & Adams) deathsdavid_herdson said:
It's not.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh I forgot today is the 242nd anniversary of the day the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland decided we'd much rather have India than America.
Nor is it the anniversary of the US deciding to commit to independence either.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Random, but why not?!TOPPING said:
I hope they don't get their suits from Jermyn Street.MaxPB said:
Surely suits from Jermyn Street, I doubt JRM even realises that M&S sell clothes.Dura_Ace said:
The ERG are paper tigers with gammon faces and M&S suits. They will do fuck all.rottenborough said:0 -
That it is (rather more than just signatories as well).JonnyJimmy said:
It is the 192nd anniversary of two of the signatories' (Jefferson & Adams) deathsdavid_herdson said:
It's not.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh I forgot today is the 242nd anniversary of the day the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland decided we'd much rather have India than America.
Nor is it the anniversary of the US deciding to commit to independence either.0 -
Be interesting to see how Sky get on without Mikel Nieve and Mikel Landa driving up the hills.Dura_Ace said:
And a team that costs 30m/year in salaries. Froomestrong has a world champion and monument winner (Kwiaktowski) just to bring him his bidons.Pulpstar said:
Salbutamol plus extreme nutrition management.MaxPB said:
Does it begin with a "d" and end with an "e"?FrancisUrquhart said:Team Sky's unprecedented release of data reveals how British rider won Giro d'Italia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446941220 -
I live in a large city with a good bus network (Edinburgh) so I use the bus a lot. However, one return journey to London will equate to at least 100 return bus journeys in the city. So, trivially, passenger-distance travelled by train will easily exceed that by bus, even if usage of the bus has much more impact on quality of life.tlg86 said:Here's the DfT's stats release on buses:
https://tinyurl.com/y94hx6rk
The 1.24bn vehicle miles compares with 0.32bn train km. Trains, of course, tend to be longer than buses and I suspect rail passenger km (65.8 billion in 2017-18) would drawf bus passenger km for which the DfT do not provide an estimate.
On journeys, the chart on page 7 shows that the gap between bus and train journeys is narrowing.
Interestingly, Rutland aside, the local authority with the lowest rate of bus journeys per head of population is Windsor and Maidenhead (11 journeys per person in 2016-17).
Even when I commute to work by train I will normally catch a bus first.
Passenger-distance is not a good metric to use to compare the relative importance of bus and train travel.0 -
By taking enough moderate Labour supporters and pro EEA Tories and LDs.MaxPB said:
And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.HYUFD said:
As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of andidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the trUnion anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.
The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.
Remember Macron won the first round of the presidential election in France as well as the second as did En Marche in the legislative elections, leaving the conservative Les Republicains and the left-wing Socialist Party trailing in its wake0 -
Insurgent parties can succeed within FPTP, but:MaxPB said:
And how does he become PM by splitting the left? Insurgent parties don't work within the bounds of FPTP and neither Theresa nor Jez are going to change that and threaten their own duopoly.HYUFD said:
As I made clear before if Corbyn loses in 2022 Umunna etc will almost certainly found a new centrist pro EEA party similar to Macron's 'En Marche' if Corbyn or a hard Left candidate wins the leadership of Labour again. Indeed Umunna has reportedly already been talking to Soubry, Cable etc about just such a new centrist party if needed.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anyway
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
Of course Macron left the Socialist Party to found En Marche.
The Tory membership of course elected IDS and Javid used to be a Brexiteer and was fiercely anti ERM, Labour members once elected Blair to lead them
It's a completely unrealistic scenario. If Corbyn loses in 2022 then one of his acolytes takes over, if they then lose in 2027, then the centrists get their chance, by then we'll be getting up to 2032.
1. It's very hard and very rare;
2. It requires replacing one or other of the two established governing parties in the top tier - in this case, presumably Labour;
3. Even if successful in the medium term, the likely short-term effect will be to give the other side - i.e. the Tories here - a huge advantage.
That said, we should remember than the SDP-Liberal alliance polled well into the 40s in late 1981 / early 1982. Although that edge had already come off before the Falklands, it's far from inconceivable to think that had things panned out differently, Roy Jenkins could have become PM in 1984.0 -
another_richard said:
That was to be paid by British money and lives in some future US military intervention.MarkHopkins said:
Did Remain declare the value of asking POTUS to say we would be at the 'back of the queue' if we left?
I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
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They may or they may not be more interested in winning but after 2017, the large number of Corbyn-inspired Labour members believe that winning *on his platform* is entirely possible and that there's no great need to elect a triangulating centrist in order to win (the fact that Corbyn himself has triangulated at times is beside the point).Recidivist said:
I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.
But with the NEC and Labour professional staff now also tilted to the left, the proposed leadership rule changes going to ensure that all candidates are likely to need to dress to the left, and the Shadow Cabinet now dominated by the left (not least by the self-imposed exile of those who resigned), Corbyn's successor is almost certain to come from his wing of the Party.0 -
There's an unknown number of unknowns.AndyJS said:Another possible unknown substance incident in Wiltshire:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/04/major-incident-inamesbury-unknown-substance-leaves-two-people/
But unlikely to be the same as the previous unknown.0 -
Croatia had a purple patch when they thrashed the Argies, but nothing special in their other matches.OblitusSumMe said:
I agree that Croatia are the strongest team in England's side of the draw. I do fancy Belgium's chances against Brazil, though.FrancisUrquhart said:
IMO Croatia are the only team from England's side of the draw that have any hope of beating Brazil or France.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. On the one hand I do not want Russia to win. On the other hand, a semi-final victory for England over Russia would be delicious.Morris_Dancer said:Croatia play Russia, yes? With the winner playing England or Sweden?
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I agree, Leader replacements are rarely like for like. That worked in favour of Jezza, but will work against him next time.Recidivist said:another_richard said:
That was to be paid by British money and lives in some future US military intervention.MarkHopkins said:
Did Remain declare the value of asking POTUS to say we would be at the 'back of the queue' if we left?
I’m not a Labour Party member and I’m sure somebody on here will be will put it all straight. But I’m not sure they are less interested in winning than their Conservative Counterparts. Corbyn only got in after the existing leadership lost after all. I don’t think they were given the choice of a winner versus an ideologue. It was between someone who would probably lose and a continuation of what had just lost. It seemed quite logical to me. If they had thrown out a likely winner in favour of a purist your point would be made. But there was no winner available.MaxPB said:
I would like to know the mechanics of a moderate winning the leadership of the Labour party. Lets assume Corbyn loses in 2022 and stands down. The membership is still largely made up of his supporters and the unions are still largely supportive of his platform. In what world does a Blairite reformist win against a hard left candidate?HYUFD said:
Umunna or Creasey whoever, the end result would be the samebrendan16 said:
All sounds perfectly credible except for the bit about Umunna ever becoming PM - that is too fastastical.HYUFD said:
Canada took 7 years to get a FTA with the EU so that would be 2028 from the end of the transition period in January 2021 and by then as I said a PM Umunna may have won the 2027 general election on a platform of rejoining the EEA and the Customs Union anywayAnorak said:*snipped max's email*
Hang on, I thought you said a FTA was in the bag? About 10,000 times. What happened?HYUFD said:Far more likely is transition deal until 2021 then WTO terms for 7 years whether the Tories or Corbyn win in 2022 while we try and get a FTA with the EU then we return to the single market and customs union after Chuka Umunna wins the 2027 general election having had 7 years of no free movement as Blair should have taken from 2004 to 2011 had he imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries
EDIT: An FTA or a FTA?
It's one thing for Tory members (leavers) to vote for Javid (a remainer), we know winning is more important than purity, that doesn't apply to Labour members, at all.0 -
I realise a lot of people on this forum live in England and some might even think the country we live in is England...FrancisUrquhart said:
Politicians should stay well clear of pretending to have fantastic knowledge of football. From Cameron and his West Ham Villa to Corbyn quoting a Scotman's as one of the greatest English managers.Benpointer said:
He probably has a Cameronesque level of football knowledge tbf.TheScreamingEagles said:
What was he doing during Euro 96?Theuniondivvie said:Back to the reliable, old pints and gurning act for Nige.
https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1014429755779833856
Actually, politicians and sport, music, popular tv...just be honest and say I don't watch Love Island, I prefer cricket to football and who the hell are the Arctic Monkeys.
It isn't, Shankly is one of this country's greatest managers, he isn't England's greatest manager (greatest in England possibly) but that was never actually claimed by anyone, well actually it probably was but not by Corbyn.
As a Labour leader it probably isn't sensible to ignore the other parts of the union, Wales and Scotland (N. Ireland shouldn't be ignored either but from an electoral point of view you can) the Tories can afford to get away with a more English-centric attitude.
Edit Not Ferguson but Shankly...
Ferguson would have been a good choice IMO!0 -
It's worth noting that changes in Labour's constitution designed to entrench one faction have never worked in the way in which those who promoted them intended.Foxy said:
I agree, Leader replacements are rarely like for like. That worked in favour of Jezza, but will work against him next time.
In the early 1980s, under Michael Foot, the electoral college was promoted to ensure that future leaders would be drawn from the left of the party. But it actually produced a marked shift to the right, successively electing Neil Kinnock, John Smith and finally Tony Blair.
The new all-member-plus-supporter system introduced by Ed Miliband was supposed to ensure that the leadership remained in moderate hands. But it actually produced Jeremy Corbyn.
It's not really possible to entrench an electorally unsuccessful faction in a democratic system - failure at the ballot box will always lead to pressure for a change in policy.
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