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1st. Like Javid.0
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I’d be chuffed if Javid or Hunt won it.
Would cement my position as Tipster of the Year. Ahem.0 -
FPT:
From the Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.0 -
A little tid-bit on Barry's "Back Of The Queue" quote
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/confirmed-cameron-did-ask-obama-to-say-brexit-britain-would-be-at-the-back-of-the-queue/0 -
We can’t cancel Article 50 unilaterally.RochdalePioneers said:FPT:
From the Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.
I did warn you about all of this before you voted Leave.0 -
After years of laying favourites in this market, there’s now in Javid and Gove two plausible candidates for next leader of the Conservatives.0
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The current Conservative strength in the opinion polls is partly as a result of the Brexit supporting public moving over to support them.
If there is a shift towards a Norway style agreement, then this could be seen as a betrayal by those Brexit voters.
I am not sure who those betrayed voters would shift to, maybe not vote?0 -
Doesn't really matter any more - unless Barry and Dave plan to do a documentary about it for Netflix.GIN1138 said:A little tid-bit on Barry's "Back Of The Queue" quote
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/confirmed-cameron-did-ask-obama-to-say-brexit-britain-would-be-at-the-back-of-the-queue/
More importantly, will the UK be an early recipient of a Trump FART?0 -
O/t but Froome is, according the the BBC, back in the Tour. Says 'The World Anti-Doping Agency, who worked closely with the UCI, has accepted there was no breach and recommended the case is dropped.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446794830 -
Fpt.
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/10137109189775728640 -
Wow. A tweet from Banks that isn’t pushing a far/alt right anti-Semitic meme/fake news.Theuniondivvie said:Fpt.
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/10137109189775728640 -
A dilemma for Soros, sue the baggy boxers of the attention seeking, narcissist wee twat & give him the attention he craves, or ignore him like the pimple on the arse of humanity that Banks is. The latter I'd guess.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wow. A tweet from Banks that isn’t pushing a far/alt right anti-Semitic meme/fake news.Theuniondivvie said:Fpt.
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/10137109189775728640 -
Does he know anything about tennis?TheScreamingEagles said:
Wow. A tweet from Banks that isn’t pushing a far/alt right anti-Semitic meme/fake news.Theuniondivvie said:Fpt.
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/10137109189775728640 -
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As always, the key question isn't who but when. If there's a leadership election this month, Sajid Javid looks great value. If there's not going to be one till 2022, not so much.
For what it's worth, I think Theresa May has been greatly strengthened by Jacob Rees-Mogg's intervention today, which seems to have had the effect of rallying Conservative loyalist MPs around her. She's quite capable of squandering that goodwill but for now she looks fairly safe.
So I will be looking for the Sajid Javid price to shorten still further - perhaps as far as 4 - then lay him. While he's obviously ambitious, he's not all that. And Home Secretary rivals the Defence Against The Dark Arts post for unwanted turnover.0 -
I had the misfortune to read some of the replies under that tweet.Theuniondivvie said:
A dilemma for Soros, sue the baggy boxers of the attention seeking, narcissist wee twat & give him the attention he craves, or ignore him like the pimple on the arse of humanity that Banks is. The latter I'd guess.TheScreamingEagles said:
Wow. A tweet from Banks that isn’t pushing a far/alt right anti-Semitic meme/fake news.Theuniondivvie said:Fpt.
Old Arron's little list is getting bigger.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1013710918977572864
There’s going to be some disappointed Trumpers when they realise Trump’s daughter married a Jew.0 -
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Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
JRM’s united about 80% of Tory MPs against him this morning.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Number 10 spin behind this.0 -
JRM is certainly looking like an empty bag. The more sensible adults are seemingly starting to take control.TheScreamingEagles said:
JRM’s united about 80% of Tory MPs against him this morning.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Number 10 spin behind this.0 -
And before TMay invoked A50 and started the clock on ourselves - tactically naive, at best...TheScreamingEagles said:
We can’t cancel Article 50 unilaterally.RochdalePioneers said:FPT:
From the Grauniad:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/02/may-to-float-third-brexit-customs-model-at-chequers-meeting
"With hopes fading of a bespoke wider agreement, senior government sources say ministers are broadly being asked to choose between an intimate, Norway-style partnership and a much looser, Canada-style trade deal."
"Davis, who has long favoured what he calls a “Canada plus plus plus” approach – echoing Ottawa’s trade deal with the EU but covering services – has held a series of meetings with May in recent days."
Great. Having been fighting over two options rejected by the EU they have come up with a third. Are the EU going to give us "Canada Plus Plus Plus" in the 6 weeks left? Haven't they been very clear and consistent that we can go swivel if we want to cherry pick?
We can cancel A50 and remain. We can significantly extend A50 and remain. We can leave to EEA. Or there is the cliff edge. The only option offering true freedom is the cliff edge, albiet very brief freedom before we go splat at the bottom.
I did warn you about all of this before you voted Leave.0 -
Looks like Mexico are joining the league of international populists. I wonder how Trump will react to the new Mexican president and vice versa. I think it could be quite positive.0
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Well done that girl!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Good old God!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Is anyone watching the Tour any more? Cycling as a sport is in a very bad place, and the authorities seem to be making little to no effort to address their sport’s (lack of) reputation with the public.OldKingCole said:O/t but Froome is, according the the BBC, back in the Tour. Says 'The World Anti-Doping Agency, who worked closely with the UCI, has accepted there was no breach and recommended the case is dropped.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446794830 -
Too late Mr Mogg, you have blow your chances and a belated tweet almost saying support the PM will cut no ice.Scott_P said:
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This decision is very much in my interest, as I have £20 on Froome for 5 TDFs at 20-1 placed in 2013 or so.Sandpit said:
Is anyone watching the Tour any more? Cycling as a sport is in a very bad place, and the authorities seem to be making little to no effort to address their sport’s (lack of) reputation with the public.OldKingCole said:O/t but Froome is, according the the BBC, back in the Tour. Says 'The World Anti-Doping Agency, who worked closely with the UCI, has accepted there was no breach and recommended the case is dropped.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446794830 -
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For all my antipathy towards JRM he is not a fool and I wonder if today's intervention was not designed to aid T May in an odd sort of way.AlastairMeeks said:As always, the key question isn't who but when. If there's a leadership election this month, Sajid Javid looks great value. If there's not going to be one till 2022, not so much.
For what it's worth, I think Theresa May has been greatly strengthened by Jacob Rees-Mogg's intervention today, which seems to have had the effect of rallying Conservative loyalist MPs around her. She's quite capable of squandering that goodwill but for now she looks fairly safe.
So I will be looking for the Sajid Javid price to shorten still further - perhaps as far as 4 - then lay him. While he's obviously ambitious, he's not all that. And Home Secretary rivals the Defence Against The Dark Arts post for unwanted turnover.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
As always, the key question isn't who but when. If there's a leadership election this month, Sajid Javid looks great value. If there's not going to be one till 2022, not so much.
For what it's worth, I think Theresa May has been greatly strengthened by Jacob Rees-Mogg's intervention today, which seems to have had the effect of rallying Conservative loyalist MPs around her. She's quite capable of squandering that goodwill but for now she looks fairly safe.
So I will be looking for the Sajid Javid price to shorten still further - perhaps as far as 4 - then lay him. While he's obviously ambitious, he's not all that. And Home Secretary rivals the Defence Against The Dark Arts post for unwanted turnover.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNqpejPzdIA
at 46 min 30 secs
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ERG was always a fringe group so why now? Someone's spinning this backlash from MPs who'd have opposed Mogg anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
JRM’s united about 80% of Tory MPs against him this morning.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Number 10 spin behind this.0 -
Fernando Gaviria is a decent bet for the maillot vert at 4/1. QST have the best lead out train in the game with the "Wolfpack".Sandpit said:
Is anyone watching the Tour any more? Cycling as a sport is in a very bad place, and the authorities seem to be making little to no effort to address their sport’s (lack of) reputation with the public.OldKingCole said:O/t but Froome is, according the the BBC, back in the Tour. Says 'The World Anti-Doping Agency, who worked closely with the UCI, has accepted there was no breach and recommended the case is dropped.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/446794830 -
That’s looking like it might be a good bet!Pulpstar said:
This decision is very much in my interest, as I have £20 on Froome for 5 TDFs at 20-1 placed in 2013 or so.Sandpit said:
Is anyone watching the Tour any more? Cycling as a sport is in a very bad place, and the authorities seem to be making little to no effort to address their sport’s (lack of) reputation with the public.OldKingCole said:O/t but Froome is, according the the BBC, back in the Tour. Says 'The World Anti-Doping Agency, who worked closely with the UCI, has accepted there was no breach and recommended the case is dropped.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/44679483
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Scott_P said:
A free trade deal on goods and services between the UK and EU
Out of the single market
Out of the customs union
Independence from the ECJ
Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained
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Rights guaranteed by the ECJ...David_Evershed said:Independence from the ECJ
Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained
We want the moon on a stick. Brexiteers still surprised we can't get it.0 -
To put them back in their box before Mrs May goes for the Norway option.DecrepitJohnL said:
ERG was always a fringe group so why now? Someone's spinning this backlash from MPs who'd have opposed Mogg anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
JRM’s united about 80% of Tory MPs against him this morning.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Number 10 spin behind this.0 -
If the ERG has any sense - which is a debatable point - it'd No Confidence Mogg and get a new chairman. It's not just about what you say but how you say it, and his article has given his internal opponents the chance to attack him without attacking his policy stance - but those speaking out against him know that it will be damaged all the same, both by association and because it being drowned out in this row.DecrepitJohnL said:
ERG was always a fringe group so why now? Someone's spinning this backlash from MPs who'd have opposed Mogg anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
JRM’s united about 80% of Tory MPs against him this morning.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Number 10 spin behind this.0 -
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Slippery slope.david_herdson said:If the ERG has any sense - which is a debatable point - it'd No Confidence Mogg and get a new chairman.
They can't admit they were wrong about Mogg without admitting the possibility that they might also be wrong about absolutely everything else they ever said0 -
Yes, I'd be wary of laying these two, who I could easily see being the options put to the membership if there was a poll this year, which there might be.Sandpit said:After years of laying favourites in this market, there’s now in Javid and Gove two plausible candidates for next leader of the Conservatives.
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JRM is only a pawn in the game.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whilst JRM has been overrated for months and never had a snowball's chance of the leadership from outside the Cabinet, this is not new. Is the backlash sign of a new Number 10 spin team flexing its muscles?TheScreamingEagles said:
Others have used him as a pawn sacrifice in order to bring down the Queen.0 -
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Nope. Rights guaranteed by ECJ only in those countries where the ECJ has jurisdiction. That would not include the UK. Not so much moon on a stick, more you howling at the moon.Scott_P said:
Rights guaranteed by the ECJ...David_Evershed said:Independence from the ECJ
Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained
We want the moon on a stick. Brexiteers still surprised we can't get it.0 -
FPT
No, I will not accept that it is absurd to say that what people who voted to leave said at the time was their primary reason for voting to leave is "self evidently" not the reason. It clearly is not absurd. There are multiple studies available that were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum showing sovereignty came ahead of immigration in driving the leave vote.AlastairMeeks said:
My position is emphatically not that memory is infallible. So, back to your absurdity. Are you yet ready to accept that something utterly forgettable is self-evidently not vital to reflect the vote?prh47bridge said:
I repeat, your position is that memory is infallible. It is often the case that people decide X for reason Y then, some time later, forget their main reason (and, indeed, sometimes forget what they decided). I am not saying that something is utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. I am saying that asking people at the time is a far more reliable way of finding out why they voted for X than asking them months later what they remember about the campaign. Do you really want to deny that? Really?AlastairMeeks said:
I repeat, your position is that something can be both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. Absurd.prh47bridge said:
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.AlastairMeeks said:
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
It may be they were lying and their subsequent recall is more accurate. But it is equally likely that they were telling the truth and their subsequent recall is affected by subsequent events. After all, there is plenty of scientific evidence showing how unreliable memory is and how easily it can be manipulated.
I know it doesn't suit your narrative. But you should at least consider the possibility that sovereignty was indeed the main concern of leave voters at the time of the referendum.0 -
Read the original postRichard_Tyndall said:Nope. Rights guaranteed by ECJ only in those countries where the ECJ has jurisdiction.
"Existing rights of UK/EU citizens in respective countries to be maintained "
Rights guaranteed by the ECJ...0 -
Jacob Rees – what an absolute prat.0
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Well, I'm still hoping for a deal, since no deal crash Brexit is descend into the public square and force reversal or bring down the government by mass protest time (always assuming they need help imploding). Scendere in piazza is an honourable, democratic tradition - as I'm sure is counter protest.
A deal involving most of the following is where I hope we can be:
- Following of virtually all SM rules on trade and standards, based on mutual recognition
- Standstill transition as discussed.
- An early deal on post-trasition day 1 participation in critical areas, e.g. Euratom, air traffic
- A high level outline on future trade relations pending more talks - we will have to accept that most of the cherries here will be picked by the EU and Ireland, but we can hope to nick a few. Some UK sectors for which Europe would prefer to compete harder will get a rough deal.
(Essentially we will be following almost all trade rules for a percentage of access)
- Extended Customs transition, duration as needed based on EU accepting one of our customs proposals
- No formal SM and an end to automatic FoM
- No formal CU at end of extra transition
- All ongoing payments transactional for specific participations
- ECJ accepted for limited and specific technical participations only
And separately this will give us:
- Some freedom to strike trade deals on a 'here are our rules' basis
- Separation from the federalising ambitions of some in the EU
- The ability to pull some jolly accounting wheeze to fund the NHS
Dear Brexiteer, deliver me something like this, and I solemnly promise not to sabotage your flight of fancy.
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The Conservative Home poll run off figures are now out.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html0 -
He has gone too far and it has backfired, thankfullyAnazina said:Jacob Rees – what an absolute prat.
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Sovereignty = control of borders, no?prh47bridge said:FPT
No, I will not accept that it is absurd to say that what people who voted to leave said at the time was their primary reason for voting to leave is "self evidently" not the reason. It clearly is not absurd. There are multiple studies available that were conducted in the immediate aftermath of the referendum showing sovereignty came ahead of immigration in driving the leave vote.AlastairMeeks said:
My position is emphatically not that memory is infallible. So, back to your absurdity. Are you yet ready to accept that something utterly forgettable is self-evidently not vital to reflect the vote?prh47bridge said:
I repeat, your position is that memory is infallible. It is often the case that people decide X for reason Y then, some time later, forget their main reason (and, indeed, sometimes forget what they decided). I am not saying that something is utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. I am saying that asking people at the time is a far more reliable way of finding out why they voted for X than asking them months later what they remember about the campaign. Do you really want to deny that? Really?AlastairMeeks said:
I repeat, your position is that something can be both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote. Absurd.prh47bridge said:
My position is that memory is fallible. It clearly is, or do you want to deny that? Your position is that people's memory of something that happened months ago is more reliable than what they said at the time. You are the one who needs to get real.AlastairMeeks said:
So it's your position that something is both utterly forgettable and vital to reflect the vote? Get real.
It may be they were lying and their subsequent recall is more accurate. But it is equally likely that they were telling the truth and their subsequent recall is affected by subsequent events. After all, there is plenty of scientific evidence showing how unreliable memory is and how easily it can be manipulated.
I know it doesn't suit your narrative. But you should at least consider the possibility that sovereignty was indeed the main concern of leave voters at the time of the referendum.0 -
Surely Nick Soames aiming for Defence Secretary not PM?TheScreamingEagles said:Nick Soames for PM
https://twitter.com/nsoames/status/1013711372113178625?s=210 -
Did rather suggest a while ago Boris has no chance of leaderHYUFD said:The Conservative Home poll run off figures are now out.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html0 -
Though more chance than Hunt it seems.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did rather suggest a while ago Boris has no chance of leaderHYUFD said:The Conservative Home poll run off figures are now out.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html
Looks like a Javid v Gove run off with Javid the likely winner0 -
It’s hard to disagree with that.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Last week you were telling us Gove would back Boris.HYUFD said:
Though more chance than Hunt it seems.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did rather suggest a while ago Boris has no chance of leaderHYUFD said:The Conservative Home poll run off figures are now out.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html
Looks like a Javid v Gove run off with Javid the likely winner0 -
A lot depends on what happens next.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He has gone too far and it has backfired, thankfullyAnazina said:Jacob Rees – what an absolute prat.
I agree JRM isout of the running if a leadership contest takes place before an election, but if May is caught in post by an unexpected election, Mogg could be next leader. In Javid vs Gove, I think Gove would win.0 -
Andrea Leadsom is available best-priced at 22-1 and could be the value on current prices.Many of us have already bought and sold Mogg,Davis and Johnson as back-to-lays.Others have backed Gove,Hunt and Javid at double figure odds.
She is a mum with a nice smile but more importantly,has run well in this particular race before and any future prediction is best predicated upon past performance.She made it to the final 2 last time.She's in good form on the speech circuits of the Tory party.
Leadsom at 22-1 is too big.She's a player.
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Following Andy Murray's withdrawal from the Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon his "live" ATP ranking has fallen almost 700 places to 831.
Similar comparisons with the UK withdrawal from the EU and our future world economic ranking is awaited from PBers of a certain REMAIN persuasion ....
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Is it time for
#SaveJacob
???
Rats in a sack.0 -
Does make me wonder how different things might have been had Leadsom not given that interview about her children and her opponents lack of them.volcanopete said:Andrea Leadsom is available best-priced at 22-1 and could be the value on current prices.Many of us have already bought and sold Mogg,Davis and Johnson as back-to-lays.Others have backed Gove,Hunt and Javid at double figure odds.
She is a mum with a nice smile but more importantly,has run well in this particular race before and any future prediction is best predicated upon past performance.She made it to the final 2 last time.She's in good form on the speech circuits of the Tory party.
Leadsom at 22-1 is too big.She's a player.
She might well have won the party membership vote. And of course if you had a PM who actually believed in Brexit a whole different approach might have been taken. Cos threatening no deal but making zero preparations for it has been folly and totally undermined the negotiations.0 -
Hope it is Javid but JRM has gone too far today - lets get on and do a Norway style deal if possible with some fudge on immigrationFoxy said:
A lot depends on what happens next.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He has gone too far and it has backfired, thankfullyAnazina said:Jacob Rees – what an absolute prat.
I agree JRM isout of the running if a leadership contest takes place before an election, but if May is caught in post by an unexpected election, Mogg could be next leader. In Javid vs Gove, I think Gove would win.0 -
Except it's a good way to communicate with constituents effectively for free - although how many people follow their MPs on Twitter is another matter.Casino_Royale said:
It’s hard to disagree with that.TheScreamingEagles said:
But what they should avoid is getting into Twitter spats.0 -
I do get the feeling that Boris's 'F**k business' line was a bridge too far, and has opened the eyes of many of the more sensible Tory leavers.0
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I think JRM has far better political judgement than you. May is trying to engage in a sell out and he called her out on it. Yes, Tory MPs will get all hysterical because most of them are unprincipled scumbags who don't care about anything other than holding their seats. But, come Saturday, when it is clear that the Chequers summit was a complete farce, reality is going to dawn on the Tory party that they need a new leader who actually has a clue what they want to do.TheScreamingEagles said:
They say that whoever yields the knife never wears the Crown - expect this is obviously not true (er, Thatcher...). In this case, the Cabinet Brexiteers won't act and if this all comes unravelled (which I think it will) then JRM will be the one who has credibility because he never deviated from his beliefs. Do you honestly think Gove and Javid are going to be credible for sitting on their hands as May engaged in the most inept negotiation of all time?
If the Leavers resign, JRM will not stand, he will back Boris. But if the Leavers stay and the wheels fall off, JRM is calculating that he will be best placed and he may well be right.0 -
If Mexico lose to Brazil, the populists might have him gone by breakfast....MaxPB said:Looks like Mexico are joining the league of international populists. I wonder how Trump will react to the new Mexican president and vice versa. I think it could be quite positive.
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If the UK reaches 831, given there are only 200ish nations now, Brexit will be the least of our worries.JackW said:Following Andy Murray's withdrawal from the Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon his "live" ATP ranking has fallen almost 700 places to 831.
Similar comparisons with the UK withdrawal from the EU and our future world economic ranking is awaited from PBers of a certain REMAIN persuasion ....
But Meeks' excellent History of Argentina header certainly covered such ground.0 -
Especially when you consider the make up of most large donors to the Tory party.Slackbladder said:I do get the feeling that Boris's 'F**k business' line was a bridge too far, and has opened the eyes of many of the more sensible Tory leavers.
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It was crass and could be the turning point to a softer BrexitSlackbladder said:I do get the feeling that Boris's 'F**k business' line was a bridge too far, and has opened the eyes of many of the more sensible Tory leavers.
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Well Boris polls better with the public, Gove will make a calculation whether it is better to be Chancellor under Boris and beat Corbyn and be in power for years or be PM for a year or two then lose to Corbyn. I think Gove will only run this time if he thinks he can beat Corbyn which the evidence suggests against at present.TheScreamingEagles said:
Last week you were telling us Gove would back Boris.HYUFD said:
Though more chance than Hunt it seems.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Did rather suggest a while ago Boris has no chance of leaderHYUFD said:The Conservative Home poll run off figures are now out.
Javid trounces Hunt 62% to 21% with Tory members
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-2-javid-62-per-cent-hunt-21-per-cent.html
Gove comfortably beats Boris 56% to 25%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-1-gove-56-per-cent-johnson-25-per-cent.html
Boris narrowly beats Hunt 42% to 39%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-3-johnson-42-per-cent-hunt-39-per-cent.html
Looks like a Javid v Gove run off with Javid the likely winner
Though I think Javid likely gets it either way, he now polls best of the top 4 in the Cabinet plus Mogg with Yougov and now leads with members0 -
0
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Sunday Times claimed that she was only planning to run if it happens before 2020.brendan16 said:
Does make me wonder how different things might have been had Leadsom not given that interview about her children and her opponents lack of them.volcanopete said:Andrea Leadsom is available best-priced at 22-1 and could be the value on current prices.Many of us have already bought and sold Mogg,Davis and Johnson as back-to-lays.Others have backed Gove,Hunt and Javid at double figure odds.
She is a mum with a nice smile but more importantly,has run well in this particular race before and any future prediction is best predicated upon past performance.She made it to the final 2 last time.She's in good form on the speech circuits of the Tory party.
Leadsom at 22-1 is too big.She's a player.
She might well have won the party membership vote. And of course if you had a PM who actually believed in Brexit a whole different approach might have been taken. Cos threatening no deal but making zero preparations for it has been folly and totally undermined the negotiations.0 -
You say you want to follow all rules for a percentage of access, what do you mean every country in the world has access to the SM if the products they make comply with EU standards. Why do you only want a percentage of access?Pro_Rata said:Well, I'm still hoping for a deal, since no deal crash Brexit is descend into the public square and force reversal or bring down the government by mass protest time (always assuming they need help imploding). Scendere in piazza is an honourable, democratic tradition - as I'm sure is counter protest.
A deal involving most of the following is where I hope we can be:
- Following of virtually all SM rules on trade and standards, based on mutual recognition
- Standstill transition as discussed.
- An early deal on post-trasition day 1 participation in critical areas, e.g. Euratom, air traffic
- A high level outline on future trade relations pending more talks - we will have to accept that most of the cherries here will be picked by the EU and Ireland, but we can hope to nick a few. Some UK sectors for which Europe would prefer to compete harder will get a rough deal.
(Essentially we will be following almost all trade rules for a percentage of access)
- Extended Customs transition, duration as needed based on EU accepting one of our customs proposals
- No formal SM and an end to automatic FoM
- No formal CU at end of extra transition
- All ongoing payments transactional for specific participations
- ECJ accepted for limited and specific technical participations only
And separately this will give us:
- Some freedom to strike trade deals on a 'here are our rules' basis
- Separation from the federalising ambitions of some in the EU
- The ability to pull some jolly accounting wheeze to fund the NHS
Dear Brexiteer, deliver me something like this, and I solemnly promise not to sabotage your flight of fancy.0 -
Truss is a poor woman's Leadsom.
Leadsom is a poor person's politician.
Leadsom would have beaten TMay in the 2016 members' vote.
Heaven help us all.0 -
Love is in the air...rottenborough said:
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I said David Davis is so crap a negotiator that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.williamglenn said:David Davis excelled himself here.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=21
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.0 -
That seems a really bad negotiating result. And obviously unfair on the UK.williamglenn said:David Davis excelled himself here.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=210 -
Fantasy figures and the BREXIT debate, who'd have thought ?Pro_Rata said:
If the UK reaches 831, given there are only 200ish nations now, Brexit will be the least of our worries.JackW said:Following Andy Murray's withdrawal from the Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon his "live" ATP ranking has fallen almost 700 places to 831.
Similar comparisons with the UK withdrawal from the EU and our future world economic ranking is awaited from PBers of a certain REMAIN persuasion ....
But Meeks' excellent History of Argentina header certainly covered such ground.0 -
You are Jasper Carrott and I claim my £5.....TheScreamingEagles said:.
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.0 -
Honestly, this is utterly pathetic. Everyone knows that Olly Robbins, not DD, negotiated the financial settlement. It was a total capitulation as demanded by Theresa May who gave him the instructions not to argue anything with the EU except that we did not have to pay up front so we could make the headline figure look a bit better.TheScreamingEagles said:
I said David Davis is so crap a negotiator that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.williamglenn said:David Davis excelled himself here.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=21
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.
But you Remainers were on here night and day saying that we had to pay the Brexit bill and now you are complaining? But of course you are in love with Robbins, so you pretend that this was down to Davis. Shameful.0 -
Except that Trump might succeed in appointing another justice to hear this case, should it make it to the SC...TheScreamingEagles said:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/28/roger-stone-aide-robert-mueller-subpoena-682318
The rule of law is wobbling a bit in the US.0 -
I should have laid him more when I had the chance.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Massively disagree, Leadsom is amongst those I've laid to zero around this price.volcanopete said:Andrea Leadsom is available best-priced at 22-1 and could be the value on current prices.Many of us have already bought and sold Mogg,Davis and Johnson as back-to-lays.Others have backed Gove,Hunt and Javid at double figure odds.
She is a mum with a nice smile but more importantly,has run well in this particular race before and any future prediction is best predicated upon past performance.She made it to the final 2 last time.She's in good form on the speech circuits of the Tory party.
Leadsom at 22-1 is too big.She's a player.0 -
Trump has tweeted congrats to Obrador, though Obrador was the most anti US candidate, I know Bannon prefers populist leftists to centrist globalist if he cannot get a nationalist conservative elected.MarqueeMark said:
If Mexico lose to Brazil, the populists might have him gone by breakfast....MaxPB said:Looks like Mexico are joining the league of international populists. I wonder how Trump will react to the new Mexican president and vice versa. I think it could be quite positive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1013618640061595648
The new Mexican President is also a close friend of Jeremy Corbyn and both share a similar populist left ideology while of course Corbyn's wife is Mexican0 -
If this were true, then DD should have resigned in protest. If your PM is going to undermine you so completely, then what is the point in being there!?archer101au said:
Honestly, this is utterly pathetic. Everyone knows that Olly Robbins, not DD, negotiated the financial settlement. It was a total capitulation as demanded by Theresa May who gave him the instructions not to argue anything with the EU except that we did not have to pay up front so we could make the headline figure look a bit better.TheScreamingEagles said:
I said David Davis is so crap a negotiator that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.williamglenn said:David Davis excelled himself here.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=21
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.
But you Remainers were on here night and day saying that we had to pay the Brexit bill and now you are complaining? But of course you are in love with Robbins, so you pretend that this was down to Davis. Shameful.0 -
I still proud of the thread where I said David Davis was as useful as a marzipan dildo.MarqueeMark said:
You are Jasper Carrott and I claim my £5.....TheScreamingEagles said:.
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.0 -
Perfect cherry picking !Pro_Rata said:Well, I'm still hoping for a deal, since no deal crash Brexit is descend into the public square and force reversal or bring down the government by mass protest time (always assuming they need help imploding). Scendere in piazza is an honourable, democratic tradition - as I'm sure is counter protest.
A deal involving most of the following is where I hope we can be:
- Following of virtually all SM rules on trade and standards, based on mutual recognition
- Standstill transition as discussed.
- An early deal on post-trasition day 1 participation in critical areas, e.g. Euratom, air traffic
- A high level outline on future trade relations pending more talks - we will have to accept that most of the cherries here will be picked by the EU and Ireland, but we can hope to nick a few. Some UK sectors for which Europe would prefer to compete harder will get a rough deal.
(Essentially we will be following almost all trade rules for a percentage of access)
- Extended Customs transition, duration as needed based on EU accepting one of our customs proposals
- No formal SM and an end to automatic FoM
- No formal CU at end of extra transition
- All ongoing payments transactional for specific participations
- ECJ accepted for limited and specific technical participations only
And separately this will give us:
- Some freedom to strike trade deals on a 'here are our rules' basis
- Separation from the federalising ambitions of some in the EU
- The ability to pull some jolly accounting wheeze to fund the NHS
Dear Brexiteer, deliver me something like this, and I solemnly promise not to sabotage your flight of fancy.0 -
Hopefully a mistake he will rectify.rkrkrk said:
If this were true, then DD should have resigned in protest. If your PM is going to undermine you so completely, then what is the point in being there!?archer101au said:
Honestly, this is utterly pathetic. Everyone knows that Olly Robbins, not DD, negotiated the financial settlement. It was a total capitulation as demanded by Theresa May who gave him the instructions not to argue anything with the EU except that we did not have to pay up front so we could make the headline figure look a bit better.TheScreamingEagles said:
I said David Davis is so crap a negotiator that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.williamglenn said:David Davis excelled himself here.
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1013745740991094784?s=21
If you threw him in to a barrel of boobs he’d come up sucking his own thumb.
But you Remainers were on here night and day saying that we had to pay the Brexit bill and now you are complaining? But of course you are in love with Robbins, so you pretend that this was down to Davis. Shameful.0 -
Never understand this JRM thing. Do you really believe that the DUP, the party of Ian Paisley would allow a Papist through the door of No. 10?0
