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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid becomes the fifth CON MP to be favourite to succee

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  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,109
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,089

    Sandpit said:

    Because the country has bet the farm on the banking, financial services and insurance industry whilst some Leavers, like Patrick Minford, want to destroy British manufacturing. Is a no brainer.

    We're more important in the grand scheme of things than metal bashers.
    we bet the farm and lost in 2008, financial services never paid the bills and never will

    the truth is you don't worry about GKN because it's not your sector. You shit yourelf when its finance. Then stupidlyyou then whinge when voters outside the finance sector vote for their own interest and we end up with Brexit.

    And you still haven't answered wny Greg sit on his Hands is approving the asset stripping of one of our oldest businesses, a centre for research and a tax payer.
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1012702482579910656
    Is that the reason for the works on the A50 just to the west of Uttoxeter?

    An anecdote about JCB. Back in the old days, the JCB spares dept was at their main site in Rocester. My school was directly above, and one day my dad asked me to go down in my lunch hour to pick something up. So I went down the hill in my tweed jacket, went to the spares department, and picked up a hydraulic ram for a backactor. After lugging it back up the hill I found it did not fit in my locker, so I had to carry it around to all my classes that afternoon.

    Mind you, I also got to go to a few product launches as well. The full laser show and dancing diggers were rather brilliant for a thirteen year old. And I've still got a model 3CX signed by Noel Edmonds ...

    (Dubious claim to fame alert)
    I was reasonably good friends with Nick Bamford at Cambridge. (Albeit haven't seen him since...)
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,617


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    Well we may not have to wait much longer to find out who is right.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,155

    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.

    And there are Tory Leavers like RoyalBlue saying we need a second referendum.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2018

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
    No, they didn't. There has been zero, literally zero, engagement by the Leave side in the nitty-gritty of car manufacturing, or the aerospace industry, and very little on banking. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the rather late realisation that those are major problems is pushing us into BINO. Some of us did point this out two years before the referendum. I repeatedly said how amazed I was that the Leave side didn't seem interested in forming a plan.

    Having said that, I agree with you on the NI backstop. It was indeed a big mistake to agree to it, not least because it's a complete distraction from the main issue, which is the actual arrangements we do want to make, not the one we don't.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,109
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Because the country has bet the farm on the banking, financial services and insurance industry whilst some Leavers, like Patrick Minford, want to destroy British manufacturing. Is a no brainer.

    We're more important in the grand scheme of things than metal bashers.
    we bet the farm and lost in 2008, financial services never paid the bills and never will

    the truth is you don't worry about GKN because it's not your sector. You shit yourelf when its finance. Then stupidlyyou then whinge when voters outside the finance sector vote for their own interest and we end up with Brexit.

    And you still haven't answered wny Greg sit on his Hands is approving the asset stripping of one of our oldest businesses, a centre for research and a tax payer.
    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1012702482579910656
    Is that the reason for the works on the A50 just to the west of Uttoxeter?

    An anecdote about JCB. Back in the old days, the JCB spares dept was at their main site in Rocester. My school was directly above, and one day my dad asked me to go down in my lunch hour to pick something up. So I went down the hill in my tweed jacket, went to the spares department, and picked up a hydraulic ram for a backactor. After lugging it back up the hill I found it did not fit in my locker, so I had to carry it around to all my classes that afternoon.

    Mind you, I also got to go to a few product launches as well. The full laser show and dancing diggers were rather brilliant for a thirteen year old. And I've still got a model 3CX signed by Noel Edmonds ...

    (Dubious claim to fame alert)
    I was reasonably good friends with Nick Bamford at Cambridge. (Albeit haven't seen him since...)
    Who is Nick Bamford. Is he one of Anthony's grandchildren?

    It'll be interesting to see what happens to the company when Anthony retires / dies, particularly given the family's historic ability to fall out with itself.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
    Obviously not to you. I assume you like him 'cos he looks nice on telly.

    Will you ever learn?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Yep, he’d probably get my vote too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,185
    edited July 2018
    2 more Conservative Home Tory members next leader poll run off results

    Gove beats Hunt 61% to 23%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-5-gove-61-per-cent-hunt-23-per-cent.html

    Javid beats Johnson 59% to 28%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/07/next-tory-leader-run-offs-4-javid-59-per-cent-johnson-28-per-cent.html

    Conservative Home will release their final runoff poll between Gove and Javid tomorrow to confirm which of the 2 really is the favourite to succeed May
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
    No, they didn't. There has been zero, literally zero, engagement by the Leave side in the nitty-gritty of car manufacturing, or the aerospace industry, and very little on banking. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the rather late realisation that those are major problems is pushing us into BINO. Some of us did point this out two years before the referendum. I repeatedly said how amazed I was that the Leave side didn't seem interested in forming a plan.

    Having said that, I agree with you on the NI backstop. It was indeed a big mistake to agree to it, not least because it's a complete distraction from the main issue, which is the actual arrangements we do want to make, not the one we don't.
    How long does it take the AVERAGE import package (from outside the EU) to clear customs?

    Once you find out the answer to this, you will realise why Leavers had no interest in engaging with your fear campaign about car manufacturing etc.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    TBF, finally, the cabinet has been treated as they should be.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
    No, they didn't. There has been zero, literally zero, engagement by the Leave side in the nitty-gritty of car manufacturing, or the aerospace industry, and very little on banking. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the rather late realisation that those are major problems is pushing us into BINO. Some of us did point this out two years before the referendum. I repeatedly said how amazed I was that the Leave side didn't seem interested in forming a plan.

    Having said that, I agree with you on the NI backstop. It was indeed a big mistake to agree to it, not least because it's a complete distraction from the main issue, which is the actual arrangements we do want to make, not the one we don't.
    How long does it take the AVERAGE import package (from outside the EU) to clear customs?

    Once you find out the answer to this, you will realise why Leavers had no interest in engaging with your fear campaign about car manufacturing etc.
    Exactly so. No interest in engaging with the problem. QED.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,155

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
    Obviously not to you. I assume you like him 'cos he looks nice on telly.

    Will you ever learn?
    It's easy to demand leaders face a purity test in order to pursue your nationalist experiment when you're sitting on the other side of the world.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
    Obviously not to you. I assume you like him 'cos he looks nice on telly.

    Will you ever learn?
    He gives us the best chance to win in 2022 and keep Corbyn out. Very little else matters.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    Second time today that David has been told by someone who left the Tory party years ago that he doesn't know much about the Tory party and its membership.

    Despite me telling the other person that David's a constituency chairman.
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    I think that Brexit will dominate (and destroy) the Tories; not surprisingly he disagrees. I am not sure exactly how David thinks that May can resolve Brexit so it does not become the trigger for leadership carnage, and if that occurs nobody actually knows how it will play out. Perhaps he thinks that May will be able to sell out the country and deliver a Brexit totally at odds with their manifesto and the members will just shrug it off. If so, he might find he is Chairman and the only member left. The Tories biggest weakness is that they think they will last forever.
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
    Obviously not to you. I assume you like him 'cos he looks nice on telly.

    Will you ever learn?
    It's easy to demand leaders face a purity test in order to pursue your nationalist experiment when you're sitting on the other side of the world.
    I would just like them to have some policies. So far none of the people who support Javid have managed to tell me anything that he stands for. You can be sitting where you like, it doesn't change the fact that he doesn't seem to stand for anything. Just like the current leader.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,617

    New thread

  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,442
    Funnily enough both @archer101au and @Richard_Nabavi agree that commitment to the NI backstop was a mistake. Thus illustrating an unsurprising and surprising lack of knowledge about NI/RoI.

    No British PM could have done anything different and the EU knows it. NI is just one of those things that Leave failed to plan for. Not that it is immediately obvious how it could have been planned for. Perhaps a less ambitious Leave means Leave mantra.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
    No, they didn't. There has been zero, literally zero, engagement by the Leave side in the nitty-gritty of car manufacturing, or the aerospace industry, and very little on banking. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the rather late realisation that those are major problems is pushing us into BINO. Some of us did point this out two years before the referendum. I repeatedly said how amazed I was that the Leave side didn't seem interested in forming a plan.

    Having said that, I agree with you on the NI backstop. It was indeed a big mistake to agree to it, not least because it's a complete distraction from the main issue, which is the actual arrangements we do want to make, not the one we don't.
    How long does it take the AVERAGE import package (from outside the EU) to clear customs?

    Once you find out the answer to this, you will realise why Leavers had no interest in engaging with your fear campaign about car manufacturing etc.
    Exactly so. No interest in engaging with the problem. QED.
    Exactly. There is no problem. Countries all over the World manage to clear all their goods through customs without being members of the Single market. Business will easily adapt to slightly different procedures and basically trivial customs delays.

    If the UK had committed to CETA early, then UK business would have had plenty of time to submit their products for EU certification (pretty easy when they already comply). Once this is done, everything carries on as normal.

    There is no problem. Crapping on endlessly about JIT supply chains does not make your point valid. What is unarguable is that all other nations in the World manage to do these things and you simply cannot explain why it is suddenly impossible for the UK to do the same.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.

    And there are Tory Leavers like RoyalBlue saying we need a second referendum.
    Please don’t exaggerate. We need a second referendum if the end state May is proposing for us is continued compliance with all EU rules with no say in their making forever.

    I will reluctantly accept not getting our own trade policy OR not ending freedom of movement. Asking the country to accept both makes a mockery of Brexit, but thanks to negligence we are not ready for a no deal outcome.

    There are no good choices anymore. Thanks to the idiotic acceptance of the backstop, we are faced with a similarly dismal choice as Denmark in the 1860s; accept excessive influence in our domestic affairs to hold all our territory together, or go for broke and risk losing a chunk of it altogether.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Ah, that no doubt explains why you think you know more about how Tory members will behave than David Herdson does.

    .
    Pull your heads in. Nobody 'knows' what thousands of Tory members or MPs will do or think - he has his opinion, I have mine. I think his analysis is incorrect and I have set out why, but his analysis is also logical but from a different point of view.

    .
    David regularly interacts with Tory members.

    He's been elected as constituency chairman by the members.

    We have a fairly good idea.

    There's Leavers on PBers who have said they'd vote for Remainers like Hunt and Javid and would expect them to win.
    100% would vote for Javid. He's easily the best candidate.
    Is he really? Er - what does he stand for?
    Does it matter?
    Obviously not to you. I assume you like him 'cos he looks nice on telly.

    Will you ever learn?
    It's easy to demand leaders face a purity test in order to pursue your nationalist experiment when you're sitting on the other side of the world.
    I would just like them to have some policies. So far none of the people who support Javid have managed to tell me anything that he stands for. You can be sitting where you like, it doesn't change the fact that he doesn't seem to stand for anything. Just like the current leader.
    He stands for reducing the size of the state and trusting the individual, he has a good record in business before entering Parliament, he’s amiable and personable, comes across well in interviews rather than sounding like your average politician talking in platitudes, and would be a real challenge for Corbyn to campaign against.

    Oh, and - for a bonus point - quite royally rubbing the noses of the Left in their identity politics bullish!t. :)
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Duh. It's like Brexiters haven't spotted this all along. It's like back when people on here who thought Dave was going to back Leave.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited July 2018

    Adonis is the sort of person who won't have registered there is a World Cup on...where England are doing rather well.....

    "Football?"
    Rather well? Yes, we beat the pub team of Panama 6-1 but we struggled to beat Tunisia and lost to the footballing and economic giant that is Belgium...
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Well they are right about that. Perhaps if they'd spent the five years since David Cameron pledged a referendum working up some kind of vaguely coherent alternative plan, they might be better placed to criticise.
    They did - it was called CETA plus, which is what DD always said should be the solution.

    May's utterly idiotic decision to promise the NI backstop has put paid to that plan. That was not the fault of the Brexiteers. If she had held her nerve the EU would have backed off NI - now they know that if they keep saying no May will surrender and agree to stay in the SM/CU.

    May and Robbins (and their chorus of Remainers whining for a Soft Brexit) have doomed this negotiation.
    No, they didn't. There has been zero, literally zero, engagement by the Leave side in the nitty-gritty of car manufacturing, or the aerospace industry, and very little on banking. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the rather late realisation that those are major problems is pushing us into BINO. Some of us did point this out two years before the referendum. I repeatedly said how amazed I was that the Leave side didn't seem interested in forming a plan.

    Having said that, I agree with you on the NI backstop. It was indeed a big mistake to agree to it, not least because it's a complete distraction from the main issue, which is the actual arrangements we do want to make, not the one we don't.
    How long does it take the AVERAGE import package (from outside the EU) to clear customs?

    Once you find out the answer to this, you will realise why Leavers had no interest in engaging with your fear campaign about car manufacturing etc.
    The Telegraph had an article over the weekend investigating exactly this. At the container ports a ship pulls into the estuary, they used an example with 10,000 containers on and the computer system took 15mins to decide which ones to be cleared and which ones to be investigated. The ship is then unloaded and if your container is cleared the lorry can take it then. The process is completely electronic. They also were at the Dover and development has been going on for some time on using ANPR and Facial recognition to clear customs or be investigated as the lorry drives past.
    The technological solution is perfectly viable with some more development.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,231

    Because the country has bet the farm on the banking, financial services and insurance industry whilst some Leavers, like Patrick Minford, want to destroy British manufacturing. Is a no brainer.

    We're more important in the grand scheme of things than metal bashers.
    we bet the farm and lost in 2008, financial services never paid the bills and never will

    the truth is you don't worry about GKN because it's not your sector. You shit yourelf when its finance. Then stupidlyyou then whinge when voters outside the finance sector vote for their own interest and we end up with Brexit.

    And you still haven't answered wny Greg sit on his Hands is approving the asset stripping of one of our oldest businesses, a centre for research and a tax payer.
    only
    I don't know enough about the GKN situation to comment, so unlike some PBers I'm not going to pass myself as an expert in something I'm not.

    I do know that the financial services sector is the largest contributor to the Exchequer, if we flee then the country's got a major problem.
    yes lets ignore the largest ever bail out the country has undertaken and the trillion plus contingent liability dumped on taxpayers

    take away all the costs and any business looks good
    Blame Gordon Brown who set up an awful regulatory system.

    It was only one or two bad apples.

    I'd have let them fail.
    It most certainly was not one or two bad apples. Pretty much every bank was involved in the LIBOR and FX scandals and nearly all of them in PPI, for instance, as well as some of them having additional scandals of their own. And that's just the ones that are in the public domain. When you add in the others, well, the entire sector was riddled with a culture which had lost sight of what it should be about.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Joining the dots gets a little easier:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1013826265739157505
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