politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spikin

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

It's almost like there's a great deal of randomness in individual football results.

I have not lost it sufficiently not to appreciate that England winning the World Cup is very much a tail event!

Incidentally, I was out at dinner last night with Eurodevils who have now finished their 3 months training in Edinburgh. There were 2 Italians, a Dutch woman, a Portuguese and a Spaniard from Madrid. To seriously understate it schadenfreude is not simply an English phenomenon. All of them were delighted and amused at Germany's departure from the WC.

It is obvious that they were all aware that the current system works very well for Germany to the detriment of everywhere else in the EZ. And they really don't like it.

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!

No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.

Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.

I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... !

Robert was on Finchley Road? All now becomes clear....

Hunchman maybe had a point after all :-)

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!

No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.

Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.

I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... !

Robert was on Finchley Road? All now becomes clear....

Hunchman maybe had a point after all :-)

Robert is a target too?

Oh very good.

Cyclefree said:

I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... !

Conspiracy Alert - Finchley Road and rcs1000 in the same post !!!!!!!!!!

Man United rather than Monaco/Athletico Falcao showing up today.

rottenborough said:

https://www.axios.com/trump-to-meet-putin-in-finland-next-month-1530187745-640c9bc5-5a9e-4455-82ac-c78ea5736de9.html

A meeting in which Trump will no doubt reassure Putin of his continued support.

It is astonishing that US public haven't woken up to what has happened to their country.

Trump supporters care more about ‘owning the libs’ than anything else.

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

Jonathan said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

So today Leavers are hating Tony Blair. Yesterday it was the BMA. It must be exhausting keeping all that negative energy pent up, ready to discharge on so many different subjects.

For a group that like to lay claim to patriotism, there's precious little about Britain that they actually like.

There is no section of the population that respects Tony Blair.

I'm afraid I'm not fleet enough of foot. For now the Leavers have moved on to their next hate target, the CBI.

Seriously, disapproval of Tony Blair is not just confined to Leavers or Corbynites.

He is more popular than populist Leavers and Corbynites like to think.

According to the latest Yougov, (June 16th) 17% like Tony Blair, and 76% dislike him.

17% is a lot more than "no section" and not at all bad for a retired politician, let alone one that gets the populists and the Corbynites ranting. Better than most hopefuls for next Tory leader.

Give him a couple of months on the campaign stump and he could get back to the 35% he needed to win a majority.

A net rating of around -60% is an appalling score for any politician at any time, ever. The only reason that a 17% absolute approval rating is decent for a retired politician is 'not at all bad' is that most retired politicians are forgotten. However, an absolute disapproval rating of 76% is so bad - particularly for someone who's been out of the front line of politics for over a decade - that it deserves a category all of its own.

Agreed.

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

FrancisUrquhart said:

david_herdson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

Hmm. not sure about that. Risks a serious jolt to momentum if England lose. Still, probably better to play the reserves in entirety than make 4-6 changes and disrupt the cohesion of the team (twice, assuming that the first-choice come back in the second round).

We will also end up playing Columbia rather than japan (as things stand)

There's not a huge amount to fear from any of the Group H sides on today's evidence. Especially sans James Rodriguez.

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

You clearly want to face the strongest teams as late as possible - looking at another sport, those that create huge upsets (Say Giles Muller Wimbledon 2017 vs Nadal) almost invariably regress to the mean standard in a couple of matches, and you'd much rather face an 'upsetter' rather than someone who is in the top 10 in the world.

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?

JonnyJimmy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Fpt

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

Stop using these technical terms.

What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?

Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.

Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.

Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.

Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.

Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.

It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?

Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.

Cyclefree said:

Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

I think VW are planning to reintroduce the camper van as an electric vehicle...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1522243/The-Volkswagen-Campervan-making-comeback-electric.html

Scratched the convertible itch with a Caterham about thirty years ago. A car which magnified both their joys and utter impracticalities.

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1012135271184228352?s=21

Japan are placing their faith in Columbia.

F1: Billy Monger's been driving an F1 car. Just a PR thing, I think, but if he's got the pace it'd be great to see him driving one properly in the future.

[For those who forgot/don't know, Monger's the young lad who lost both his legs in an accident].

Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

AlastairMeeks said:

It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

I have faith

AlastairMeeks said:

It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

You have some obsessive fans.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

Yup for the first time since 1982

Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.

Mad game theory used at the end there by the Japanese.

Slightly rebalances the top/bottom half argument too - I think Japan are weaker than Columbia for all Falcao's loss of pace.

David_Evershed said:

Polruan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1012331253398474752

Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.

The Tory party will become a pro-EU party again, and those who can't accept that will either quietly retire or move off to irrelevance on the fringes.

May could be the leader to take the Tories back into the EPP.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

Yup for the first time since 1982

Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.

Are there really all that many ?

Mo Salah springs to mind, and a couple of the nigerians I suppose - but Nigeria had a tough group.

AlastairMeeks said:

It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

Perhaps you should wait for the autonomous vehicle revolution...

David_Evershed said:

Polruan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1012331253398474752

Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.

What kind of rebellion do you mean? The assumption here is that this outcome would result from the operation of democratic processes after a majority (of MPs, or voters in a referendum) concluded that no Brexit was a better option than no deal exit so it’s not obvious what would justify rebellion, either inside or outside the Conservative party bubble.

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

Yup for the first time since 1982

Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.

Are there really all that many ?

Mo Salah springs to mind, and a couple of the nigerians I suppose - but Nigeria had a tough group.

There are 45 in the EPL alone. Also remember that many North African teams have been doing the old Ireland under jack charlton and getting top french and Dutch talent to play for their parents homeland.

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?

Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.

Agree with all points.

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1012368915308208130

Wouldn't it have been something if the Japan-Poland ref had booked them all for bad sportsmanship?

JonnyJimmy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Fpt

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

Stop using these technical terms.

What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?

Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.

Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.

Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.

Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.

Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.

He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.

I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!

lol

Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

DavidL said:

I completely agree with Robert that Target 2 has nothing to do with trade balances. I also agree that the real causes of imbalances is capital flight. Where I differ from him is that this is not in itself a problem.

I would make 3 points.

1. Capital flight is another way of measuring the risk of Euro break up. This risk used to show up with differential interest rates on government debt and it still does to a limited extent but the Mario Put was very successful in reducing those differentials. The risk is now showing up elsewhere and it is currently thought to be high.

2. Why is this a problem? Because it means most of the working capital in the EZ is being deposited in German banks, despite them paying no interest. This gives a problem to Italian banks. They have to borrow money from the German banks to lend to investors in Italy. This requires both German banks being willing to lend and for Italian investors to pay a double premium, a turn to their own bank and a turn to the German bank as well. If risks are thought to be increasing German banks are likely to seek to recall capital from Italian banks causing severe liquidity problems there exacerbating any crisis that is already ongoing.

3. It is not risk free from the German perspective either. If Italy decided to leave the EZ and default on these target 2 balances the German/Euro financial system would collapse. The sums involved are far too large to be absorbed. This, ironically, gives the likes of Italy some leverage but it increases instability in a very 2007 way.

So, I do not think Robert is right to say ignore this. The ECB has got to work to persuade Mario that the Italian banks are a safe place for his cash. As Robert says, this could be greatly assisted by larger interest rate differentials making those Italian banks more attractive. If the EZ goes on like this growth in places like Italy, Spain and Portugal is likely to suffer and Germany is likely to become even more dominant.

I've watched the video twice now, and I've no effing idea what Target 2 is.

But I do want to buy a boat ...

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

I completely agree with Robert that Target 2 has nothing to do with trade balances. I also agree that the real causes of imbalances is capital flight. Where I differ from him is that this is not in itself a problem.

I would make 3 points.

1. Capital flight is another way of measuring the risk of Euro break up. This risk used to show up with differential interest rates on government debt and it still does to a limited extent but the Mario Put was very successful in reducing those differentials. The risk is now showing up elsewhere and it is currently thought to be high.

2. Why is this a problem? Because it means most of the working capital in the EZ is being deposited in German banks, despite them paying no interest. This gives a problem to Italian banks. They have to borrow money from the German banks to lend to investors in Italy. This requires both German banks being willing to lend and for Italian investors to pay a double premium, a turn to their own bank and a turn to the German bank as well. If risks are thought to be increasing German banks are likely to seek to recall capital from Italian banks causing severe liquidity problems there exacerbating any crisis that is already ongoing.

3. It is not risk free from the German perspective either. If Italy decided to leave the EZ and default on these target 2 balances the German/Euro financial system would collapse. The sums involved are far too large to be absorbed. This, ironically, gives the likes of Italy some leverage but it increases instability in a very 2007 way.

So, I do not think Robert is right to say ignore this. The ECB has got to work to persuade Mario that the Italian banks are a safe place for his cash. As Robert says, this could be greatly assisted by larger interest rate differentials making those Italian banks more attractive. If the EZ goes on like this growth in places like Italy, Spain and Portugal is likely to suffer and Germany is likely to become even more dominant.

I've watched the video twice now, and I've no effing idea what Target 2 is.

But I do want to buy a boat ...

I think that this is sadly yet further evidence of your contrary nature.

williamglenn said:

Alanbrooke said:

lol

Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

Opinion poll: What is the biggest problem facing Bavaria?

CSU - 39%
Migration - 30%
Housing - 24%

https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2018-06/unionsstreit-csu-bayern-problem-forsa-umfrage

so 61% don't think so

bigjohnowls said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

tlg86 said:

TOPPING said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MirrorDarren/status/1012282783694249984

I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536

We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

Bring it! Should be our mantra.

27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.

The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.

Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.

And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.

Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?

Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.

I am on France at 8/1

Not very impressive so far but who knows

Likewise, but they have drifted out to 10 on BF.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls/Mr. Borough (et al, of course), who do you think will win?

Not up, at all, on football*.

*Or F1, if we go by the 2018 results.

Most likely by far is Brazil or Spain I reckon, but too boring to bet on favs.

I have a cheeky couple of quid on Croatia, which I hope to lay off soon.

My bet on Germany reaching final has now gone. Ha ha ha ha...

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Borough, reckon Portugal might do it?

What odds did you get on Croatia? They were circa 30(ish) before things started, and about half that more recently.

36.

AlastairMeeks said:

It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

Can you set up a demonstration for us?

I don't suppose Robert could summarise target2 in a few bullet points? I still cannot tell why it is a good thing or not (though it is said to be an essential function).

AndyJS said:

Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.

problem is the RAF flattened the place in 1944 and then the Red Army rolled up in 1945 and made sure no two stones were standing on top of each other

Polruan said:

AndyJS said:

Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.

On the subject of aiming to lose this match to get an easier route to the final, Kant’s observation that “one who makes himself a worm cannot complain afterwards if people step on him” may be relevant.

Betfair reckons Belgium will throw the match judging by all the odds.

Worst place I've ever driven is San Francisco. Pot-head hippies and junctions on blind crests of hills.....

I guess the EDL will be out protesting out these religious sex crimes at children?

The archbishop of Canterbury has asked his predecessor George Carey to step down as an honorary assistant bishop after a damning independent report found that senior figures in the Church of England colluded over a 20-year period with a disgraced former bishop who sexually abused boys and men.

Justin Welby said the report on the church’s handling of former bishop Peter Ball made harrowing reading. “The church colluded and concealed rather than seeking to help those who were brave enough to come forward. This is inexcusable and shocking behaviour,” Welby said.

“To the survivors who were brave enough to share their story and bring Peter Ball to justice, I once again offer an unreserved apology. There are no excuses whatsoever for what took place and the systemic abuse of trust perpetrated by Peter Ball over decades.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/church-of-england-colluded-with-bishop-peter-ball-who-abused-boys-says-justin-welby

FeersumEnjineeya said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Fpt

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MaxPB said:

What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

Stop using these technical terms.

What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?

Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.

Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.

Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.

Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.

Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.

He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.

I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!

My advice: don't ever go driving in Italy.

MarqueeMark said:

Worst place I've ever driven is San Francisco. Pot-head hippies and junctions on blind crests of hills.....

Have you driven in Italy?

Every lane is an overtaking lane and well traffic lights are generally seen as ornaments, not something to be followed.

an interesting game if neither side wants to win,, what's the situation with red or yellow cards..

TheScreamingEagles said:

Definitely time for disestablishment.

If the then Archbishop of Canterbury is prepared to put the Church ahead of the protecting children then the Church needs to be removed as a part of the state.

These people call themselves Christians. It turns your stomach.