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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, this errr… Target2 thing. What is it, and why is it spikin

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  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!
    No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

    A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.
    Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.
    You were probably on the train to Ford open prison. Lots of PB'ers on that service.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!
    No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

    A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.
    Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.
    I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... ! :)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Incidentally, I was out at dinner last night with Eurodevils who have now finished their 3 months training in Edinburgh. There were 2 Italians, a Dutch woman, a Portuguese and a Spaniard from Madrid. To seriously understate it schadenfreude is not simply an English phenomenon. All of them were delighted and amused at Germany's departure from the WC.

    It is obvious that they were all aware that the current system works very well for Germany to the detriment of everywhere else in the EZ. And they really don't like it.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Song, do you disagree that communists are as bad as fascists?

    Socialism is a creed of failure, the line between it and communism is blurry at best (the USSR wasn't the USCR). Whether social democrats are essentially soft left types who want red flag fools on-side, or whether they're genuine socialists depends on the party.

    Just look at Labour. It tolerated the likes of Marxist McDonnell and pro-Chavez Corbyn for years and years. For most of that time, Labour was left, but not utterly insane. Now it's got socialists squatting on the front bench.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!
    No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

    A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.
    Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.
    I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... ! :)
    Robert was on Finchley Road? All now becomes clear....

    Hunchman maybe had a point after all :-)
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!
    No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

    A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.
    Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.
    I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... ! :)
    Robert was on Finchley Road? All now becomes clear....

    Hunchman maybe had a point after all :-)
    Robert is a target too?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I saw a convertible S-type Jag could have been yesterday in London - was it dark green? Was that you??!!
    No. Sold it 2 years ago for my silver convertible 2-seater (in theory has seats in the back but only for midgets). Don’t make them anymore (the fools) but puts all the fun back into motoring, even if the boot is tiny.

    A brilliant car for carrying plants. I have even carried Xmas trees in it. My next outing will be to the Hampton Court Flowere Show next week.
    Ah! I do wonder how many PB-ers have met or been around each other without knowing it. I once saw someone looking at PB on his iPhone sitting next to me on the train but I couldn't angle my face to see if he was logged in or was just browsing.
    I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... ! :)
    Robert was on Finchley Road? All now becomes clear....

    Hunchman maybe had a point after all :-)
    Robert is a target too?
    Oh very good.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Poland take the lead...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Cyclefree said:

    I realised some time ago that I have a distant connection - through work - with SeanT of this parish. RCS100 lived very near me - though he was on the expensive/posh side of Finchley Road. And he was an intern at the bank where - and - when I did my first in-house legal job. I may even have told him to stop whatever it was that he was doing ..... if he wanted to stay legal...... ! :)

    Conspiracy Alert - Finchley Road and rcs1000 in the same post !!!!!!!!!!

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Man United rather than Monaco/Athletico Falcao showing up today.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

    Hmm. not sure about that. Risks a serious jolt to momentum if England lose. Still, probably better to play the reserves in entirety than make 4-6 changes and disrupt the cohesion of the team (twice, assuming that the first-choice come back in the second round).
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2018

    https://www.axios.com/trump-to-meet-putin-in-finland-next-month-1530187745-640c9bc5-5a9e-4455-82ac-c78ea5736de9.html

    A meeting in which Trump will no doubt reassure Putin of his continued support.

    It is astonishing that US public haven't woken up to what has happened to their country.

    Trump supporters care more about ‘owning the libs’ than anything else.

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    So today Leavers are hating Tony Blair. Yesterday it was the BMA. It must be exhausting keeping all that negative energy pent up, ready to discharge on so many different subjects.

    For a group that like to lay claim to patriotism, there's precious little about Britain that they actually like.

    There is no section of the population that respects Tony Blair.
    I'm afraid I'm not fleet enough of foot. For now the Leavers have moved on to their next hate target, the CBI.
    Seriously, disapproval of Tony Blair is not just confined to Leavers or Corbynites.
    He is more popular than populist Leavers and Corbynites like to think.
    According to the latest Yougov, (June 16th) 17% like Tony Blair, and 76% dislike him.
    17% is a lot more than "no section" and not at all bad for a retired politician, let alone one that gets the populists and the Corbynites ranting. Better than most hopefuls for next Tory leader.

    Give him a couple of months on the campaign stump and he could get back to the 35% he needed to win a majority.
    A net rating of around -60% is an appalling score for any politician at any time, ever. The only reason that a 17% absolute approval rating is decent for a retired politician is 'not at all bad' is that most retired politicians are forgotten. However, an absolute disapproval rating of 76% is so bad - particularly for someone who's been out of the front line of politics for over a decade - that it deserves a category all of its own.
    Agreed.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    538 have done work on assessing how much stoppage time should have been added to matches compared to how much is..

    Their conclusion, not nearly enough:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/world-cup-stoppage-time-is-wildly-inaccurate/
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?
    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2018

    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

    Hmm. not sure about that. Risks a serious jolt to momentum if England lose. Still, probably better to play the reserves in entirety than make 4-6 changes and disrupt the cohesion of the team (twice, assuming that the first-choice come back in the second round).
    We will also end up playing Columbia rather than japan (as things stand)
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    538 have done work on assessing how much stoppage time should have been added to matches compared to how much is..

    Their conclusion, not nearly enough:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/world-cup-stoppage-time-is-wildly-inaccurate/

    Really good to see someone do this - it's not just the World Cup. Personally I'd favour 30 mins ball-in-play with touchline timekeepers - and ball has to go dead (not FK/pen) for half-time & full-time to be blown.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

    Hmm. not sure about that. Risks a serious jolt to momentum if England lose. Still, probably better to play the reserves in entirety than make 4-6 changes and disrupt the cohesion of the team (twice, assuming that the first-choice come back in the second round).
    We will also end up playing Columbia rather than japan (as things stand)
    There's not a huge amount to fear from any of the Group H sides on today's evidence. Especially sans James Rodriguez.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?
    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    As he hasn't owned a car for some years, it makes sense to be cautious initially, before gaining confidence and experience. I am sure that he will be competing with the PB boy racers in no time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited June 2018
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    You clearly want to face the strongest teams as late as possible - looking at another sport, those that create huge upsets (Say Giles Muller Wimbledon 2017 vs Nadal) almost invariably regress to the mean standard in a couple of matches, and you'd much rather face an 'upsetter' rather than someone who is in the top 10 in the world.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

    Hmm. not sure about that. Risks a serious jolt to momentum if England lose. Still, probably better to play the reserves in entirety than make 4-6 changes and disrupt the cohesion of the team (twice, assuming that the first-choice come back in the second round).
    We will also end up playing Columbia rather than japan (as things stand)
    There's not a huge amount to fear from any of the Group H sides on today's evidence. Especially sans James Rodriguez.
    Yes Columbia aren’t anywhere near as good as they were in 2014.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Apparently maradona get paid £10k a game by FIFA’s for attending. That must buy a lot of coke...cola.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?
    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    Good afternoon. Japan are apparently going to go through because they've received less yellow cards than Senegal.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited June 2018
    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    You clearly want to face the strongest teams as late as possible - looking at another sport, those that create huge upsets (Say Giles Muller Wimbledon 2017 vs Nadal) almost invariably regress to the mean standard in a couple of matches, and you'd much rather face an 'upsetter' rather than someone who is in the top 10 in the world.
    You want to face the fewest number of tough matches, since your chance of winning the whole thing is simply a% * b% * c% * d%. Assuming you are optimising for winning.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?
    Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

    I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,819
    We'll leave the treaties on 29th March 2019 with May's wretched deal... Then she'll be torn apart by the Tory Party within a month.

    Question is who follows her? My guess is that it'll be a Brexiteer to make sure there's no further watering down of May's already sh*t deal and to ensure "transition" isn't continued beyond the next election.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625
    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I think VW are planning to reintroduce the camper van as an electric vehicle...
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1522243/The-Volkswagen-Campervan-making-comeback-electric.html

    Scratched the convertible itch with a Caterham about thirty years ago. A car which magnified both their joys and utter impracticalities.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

    Especially when the majority of cars have automatic parking as an add-on. stop car, take hands off wheel, press button, car parks itself. Many members of the fairer sex refuse to discuss even having this option on the car at all.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    The currant bun reporting England to make 9 changes from Sunday.

    Pick any number between none and eleven.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Japan are placing their faith in Columbia.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Japan Poland is hilarious lol
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    F1: Billy Monger's been driving an F1 car. Just a PR thing, I think, but if he's got the pace it'd be great to see him driving one properly in the future.

    [For those who forgot/don't know, Monger's the young lad who lost both his legs in an accident].
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I think VW are planning to reintroduce the camper van as an electric vehicle...
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1522243/The-Volkswagen-Campervan-making-comeback-electric.html

    Scratched the convertible itch with a Caterham about thirty years ago. A car which magnified both their joys and utter impracticalities.
    I once saw a Caterham stuffed under the barriers on a central reservation. Made me wince.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650

    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

    I have faith :)

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Polruan said:

    Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

    If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454

    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

    You have some obsessive fans.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    Mad game theory used at the end there by the Japanese.

    Slightly rebalances the top/bottom half argument too - I think Japan are weaker than Columbia for all Falcao's loss of pace.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    Mad game theory used at the end there by the Japanese.

    Slightly rebalances the top/bottom half argument too - I think Japan are weaker than Columbia for all Falcao's loss of pace.
    I think Adebayo Akinfenwa is faster than Falcao these days.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    Polruan said:

    Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

    If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.
    The Tory party will become a pro-EU party again, and those who can't accept that will either quietly retire or move off to irrelevance on the fringes.

    May could be the leader to take the Tories back into the EPP.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Re cars: when the children arrived we got a campervan. A brilliant vehicle: loads of space, the kids’ friends adored it and I relished the look on peoples’ faces when they saw what looked like a mobile chippy (“Darling - some gypsies appear to have come to the house....) parked outside their house. Plus you were high up when driving and it taught me, like nothing else, how to use your mirrors to park in the smallest of spaces. And you could make a cup of tea. What’s not to love.....

    Since then we’ve had Jags: the old-fashioned beautiful ones - S-type etc - which have been the best cars I’ve ever had. (I once had a Peugeot - dreadful - it burst into flames in Brent X car park only moments after the children got out.)

    Recently I did a trip up to and back from the Lakes in my Jag convertible with the hood down, the sun in the sky, wind in my hair, music turned up loud. Noisy, windy but fucking awesome!!!

    I think VW are planning to reintroduce the camper van as an electric vehicle...
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1522243/The-Volkswagen-Campervan-making-comeback-electric.html

    Scratched the convertible itch with a Caterham about thirty years ago. A car which magnified both their joys and utter impracticalities.
    I once saw a Caterham stuffed under the barriers on a central reservation. Made me wince.
    Not a car you'd want an accident in - and getting in with the ridiculous and leaky hood up required flexibility I lost long ago.

    But huge fun.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    Are there really all that many ?

    Mo Salah springs to mind, and a couple of the nigerians I suppose - but Nigeria had a tough group.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    There was an article earlier on this year pointing out how 'inefficient' some African Football Associations are.

    More than one African FA has spent more on Mercedes for their FA Chairman and executive board than they have on youth development/coaching.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

    Perhaps you should wait for the autonomous vehicle revolution...
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?
    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

    If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.
    What kind of rebellion do you mean? The assumption here is that this outcome would result from the operation of democratic processes after a majority (of MPs, or voters in a referendum) concluded that no Brexit was a better option than no deal exit so it’s not obvious what would justify rebellion, either inside or outside the Conservative party bubble.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    You clearly want to face the strongest teams as late as possible - looking at another sport, those that create huge upsets (Say Giles Muller Wimbledon 2017 vs Nadal) almost invariably regress to the mean standard in a couple of matches, and you'd much rather face an 'upsetter' rather than someone who is in the top 10 in the world.
    You want to face the fewest number of tough matches, since your chance of winning the whole thing is simply a% * b% * c% * d%. Assuming you are optimising for winning.
    Parsing the best options for routes to the final is a bit like the Democrats talking of packing future Supreme Courts - i.e. pales into utter insignificance against the simple problem of just winning.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    Are there really all that many ?

    Mo Salah springs to mind, and a couple of the nigerians I suppose - but Nigeria had a tough group.
    There are 45 in the EPL alone. Also remember that many North African teams have been doing the old Ireland under jack charlton and getting top french and Dutch talent to play for their parents homeland.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Am I right in thinking of Senegal dont equalise, there are no African teams in the knockout stages?

    Yup for the first time since 1982
    Amazing when you consider how many superstar African players in top European leagues.
    There was an article earlier on this year pointing out how 'inefficient' some African Football Associations are.

    More than one African FA has spent more on Mercedes for their FA Chairman and executive board than they have on youth development/coaching.
    There are all sorts of stories of no shirts for games, not being paid, etc etc etc.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,311
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?
    Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

    I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.
    Agree with all points.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,862
    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?
    Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

    I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.
    I am on France at 8/1

    Not very impressive so far but who knows
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625
    Emin Agalarov, who arranged the Trump campaign June 2016 meeting with the Russians, has a new video out:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cs4tKdiiI4
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Wouldn't it have been something if the Japan-Poland ref had booked them all for bad sportsmanship?
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    Polruan said:

    Rather than being the inverse, isn’t that the explanation for ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’?

    If no deal = no Brexit then it also equals rebellion.
    The Tory party will become a pro-EU party again, and those who can't accept that will either quietly retire or move off to irrelevance on the fringes.

    May could be the leader to take the Tories back into the EPP.
    But, probably not.
  • Options

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.
    I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    I find this car conversation daunting. I've got as far as working out that I need to buy a car but haven't the slightest idea how I'm going to choose one now.

    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?
    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.
    Never ever move to America. The worst British drivers would be the best in the US.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    lol

    Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

    so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    lol

    Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

    so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

    Opinion poll: What is the biggest problem facing Bavaria?

    CSU - 39%
    Migration - 30%
    Housing - 24%

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2018-06/unionsstreit-csu-bayern-problem-forsa-umfrage
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548



    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.

    I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!
    As would I. I drive very steadily in order to minimise my braking. I like to leave a substantial gap between me and the car in front, which sadly seems to encourage the lunatic Lewises so often behind me. But I also don't want to share roads with drivers who can't steer their cars accurately into parking spaces at very slow speeds. Hence my advice to Mr Meeks; learn to park it before you take your new car out.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    lol

    Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

    so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

    Opinion poll: What is the biggest problem facing Bavaria?

    CSU - 39%
    Migration - 30%
    Housing - 24%

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2018-06/unionsstreit-csu-bayern-problem-forsa-umfrage
    Bavarians see the CSU as the biggest problem facing Bavaria? LOL.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,018
    DavidL said:

    I completely agree with Robert that Target 2 has nothing to do with trade balances. I also agree that the real causes of imbalances is capital flight. Where I differ from him is that this is not in itself a problem.

    I would make 3 points.

    1. Capital flight is another way of measuring the risk of Euro break up. This risk used to show up with differential interest rates on government debt and it still does to a limited extent but the Mario Put was very successful in reducing those differentials. The risk is now showing up elsewhere and it is currently thought to be high.

    2. Why is this a problem? Because it means most of the working capital in the EZ is being deposited in German banks, despite them paying no interest. This gives a problem to Italian banks. They have to borrow money from the German banks to lend to investors in Italy. This requires both German banks being willing to lend and for Italian investors to pay a double premium, a turn to their own bank and a turn to the German bank as well. If risks are thought to be increasing German banks are likely to seek to recall capital from Italian banks causing severe liquidity problems there exacerbating any crisis that is already ongoing.

    3. It is not risk free from the German perspective either. If Italy decided to leave the EZ and default on these target 2 balances the German/Euro financial system would collapse. The sums involved are far too large to be absorbed. This, ironically, gives the likes of Italy some leverage but it increases instability in a very 2007 way.

    So, I do not think Robert is right to say ignore this. The ECB has got to work to persuade Mario that the Italian banks are a safe place for his cash. As Robert says, this could be greatly assisted by larger interest rate differentials making those Italian banks more attractive. If the EZ goes on like this growth in places like Italy, Spain and Portugal is likely to suffer and Germany is likely to become even more dominant.

    I've watched the video twice now, and I've no effing idea what Target 2 is.

    But I do want to buy a boat ...
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584



    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.

    I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!
    As would I. I drive very steadily in order to minimise my braking. I like to leave a substantial gap between me and the car in front, which sadly seems to encourage the lunatic Lewises so often behind me. But I also don't want to share roads with drivers who can't steer their cars accurately into parking spaces at very slow speeds. Hence my advice to Mr Meeks; learn to park it before you take your new car out.

    Or buy a self-parking car.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    I completely agree with Robert that Target 2 has nothing to do with trade balances. I also agree that the real causes of imbalances is capital flight. Where I differ from him is that this is not in itself a problem.

    I would make 3 points.

    1. Capital flight is another way of measuring the risk of Euro break up. This risk used to show up with differential interest rates on government debt and it still does to a limited extent but the Mario Put was very successful in reducing those differentials. The risk is now showing up elsewhere and it is currently thought to be high.

    2. Why is this a problem? Because it means most of the working capital in the EZ is being deposited in German banks, despite them paying no interest. This gives a problem to Italian banks. They have to borrow money from the German banks to lend to investors in Italy. This requires both German banks being willing to lend and for Italian investors to pay a double premium, a turn to their own bank and a turn to the German bank as well. If risks are thought to be increasing German banks are likely to seek to recall capital from Italian banks causing severe liquidity problems there exacerbating any crisis that is already ongoing.

    3. It is not risk free from the German perspective either. If Italy decided to leave the EZ and default on these target 2 balances the German/Euro financial system would collapse. The sums involved are far too large to be absorbed. This, ironically, gives the likes of Italy some leverage but it increases instability in a very 2007 way.

    So, I do not think Robert is right to say ignore this. The ECB has got to work to persuade Mario that the Italian banks are a safe place for his cash. As Robert says, this could be greatly assisted by larger interest rate differentials making those Italian banks more attractive. If the EZ goes on like this growth in places like Italy, Spain and Portugal is likely to suffer and Germany is likely to become even more dominant.

    I've watched the video twice now, and I've no effing idea what Target 2 is.

    But I do want to buy a boat ...
    I think that this is sadly yet further evidence of your contrary nature.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.
    Never ever move to America. The worst British drivers would be the best in the US.
    And CA has one of the better road safety records, like us in NY. I shudder to think what driving in the worst states must be like.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755

    lol

    Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

    so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

    Opinion poll: What is the biggest problem facing Bavaria?

    CSU - 39%
    Migration - 30%
    Housing - 24%

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2018-06/unionsstreit-csu-bayern-problem-forsa-umfrage

    so 61% don't think so
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Never ever move to America. The worst British drivers would be the best in the US.

    And CA has one of the better road safety records, like us in NY. I shudder to think what driving in the worst states must be like.
    Perhaps it's connected to having parking spaces big enough to fit two cars in.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,238

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    tlg86 said:

    TOPPING said:

    I don't think anyone's assuming anything. The argument is that we are here to win it so should optimise for that. The counter-arguments re momentum are valid too.
    https://twitter.com/experimental361/status/1012246402611777536
    We are here to win it but that doesn't mean we ponce around trying to get the easiest route to the final and hope that the team we face in the final goes down with the lurgy the day before the match.

    Bring it! Should be our mantra.

    27%...40% my arse. Tell it to UBS.
    The example of Portugal two years ago shows what happens when you end up on the right side of the draw.
    Shows nothing. On the day at that time they came through. Could have gone out to Croatia or lost to France on another day. Hardly scientific.
    And I suppose you don’t think Millwall benefitted from avoiding Premier League teams on their way to the 2004 FA Cup Final.
    Are you backing all the favourites in this WC?
    Well I did have a five on Spain, Portugal, Germany, Brazil, England and Belgium to make the quarter finals. Trust the Germans to let me down.

    I do think we should try to win tonight, I just don’t think we should be too upset if we don’t. Whereas not beating Nigeria in 2002 was a very big mistake.
    I am on France at 8/1

    Not very impressive so far but who knows
    Likewise, but they have drifted out to 10 on BF.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    Mr. Owls/Mr. Borough (et al, of course), who do you think will win?

    Not up, at all, on football*.

    *Or F1, if we go by the 2018 results.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,238

    Mr. Owls/Mr. Borough (et al, of course), who do you think will win?

    Not up, at all, on football*.

    *Or F1, if we go by the 2018 results.

    Most likely by far is Brazil or Spain I reckon, but too boring to bet on favs.

    I have a cheeky couple of quid on Croatia, which I hope to lay off soon.

    My bet on Germany reaching final has now gone. Ha ha ha ha...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,984
    edited June 2018
    Mr. Borough, reckon Portugal might do it?

    What odds did you get on Croatia? They were circa 30(ish) before things started, and about half that more recently.

    Edited extra bit: quite tasty odds at 36. Should be tradeable.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,238

    Mr. Borough, reckon Portugal might do it?

    What odds did you get on Croatia? They were circa 30(ish) before things started, and about half that more recently.

    36.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,355

    It is fascinating to see my driving argued about back and forth by people who have never seen me drive.

    Can you set up a demonstration for us?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770

    lol

    Lux PM launches attack on the CSU saying a small Bavarian party cant determine future of Europe

    so a bloke who is responsible for fewer Europeans than the Oberburgermeister of Munich is saying pipsqueaks shouldnt be ordering everyone else around.

    Opinion poll: What is the biggest problem facing Bavaria?

    CSU - 39%
    Migration - 30%
    Housing - 24%

    https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2018-06/unionsstreit-csu-bayern-problem-forsa-umfrage
    Bavarians see the CSU as the biggest problem facing Bavaria? LOL.
    Their agitating against Merkel going well then!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,770
    I don't suppose Robert could summarise target2 in a few bullet points? I still cannot tell why it is a good thing or not (though it is said to be an essential function).
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.

    problem is the RAF flattened the place in 1944 and then the Red Army rolled up in 1945 and made sure no two stones were standing on top of each other
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.

    On the subject of aiming to lose this match to get an easier route to the final, Kant’s observation that “one who makes himself a worm cannot complain afterwards if people step on him” may be relevant.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Polruan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Tonight's match is being played in the birthplace of Immanuel Kant.

    On the subject of aiming to lose this match to get an easier route to the final, Kant’s observation that “one who makes himself a worm cannot complain afterwards if people step on him” may be relevant.
    Betfair reckons Belgium will throw the match judging by all the odds.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Next Cabinet meeting, she'll give it to Boris.....
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Worst place I've ever driven is San Francisco. Pot-head hippies and junctions on blind crests of hills.....
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    rpjs said:

    And CA has one of the better road safety records, like us in NY. I shudder to think what driving in the worst states must be like.

    I used to spend a lot of time in Denver, CO. People would go clubbing, and drink heavily, and then get into their cars and drive home. The number of accidents was horrendous. I think I saw three or four wrecks in just one weekend in Denver. That's inconceivable in the UK.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    edited June 2018
    I guess the EDL will be out protesting out these religious sex crimes at children?

    The archbishop of Canterbury has asked his predecessor George Carey to step down as an honorary assistant bishop after a damning independent report found that senior figures in the Church of England colluded over a 20-year period with a disgraced former bishop who sexually abused boys and men.

    Justin Welby said the report on the church’s handling of former bishop Peter Ball made harrowing reading. “The church colluded and concealed rather than seeking to help those who were brave enough to come forward. This is inexcusable and shocking behaviour,” Welby said.

    “To the survivors who were brave enough to share their story and bring Peter Ball to justice, I once again offer an unreserved apology. There are no excuses whatsoever for what took place and the systemic abuse of trust perpetrated by Peter Ball over decades.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/church-of-england-colluded-with-bishop-peter-ball-who-abused-boys-says-justin-welby
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    Definitely time for disestablishment.

    If the then Archbishop of Canterbury is prepared to put the Church ahead of the protecting children then the Church needs to be removed as a part of the state.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Fpt

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    What are you looking for? Executive saloon? SUV? Runabout?

    Stop using these technical terms.
    :D

    What kind of driving are you mainly going to be doing? Countryside, city or motorway?
    Mainly but not exclusively country driving, with some long distance driving from time to time. A decent-sized boot would be useful. Not too big because I'm rubbish at parking.
    Doesn't "rubbish at parking" actually mean crap at driving and a danger on the roads? If you can't control a car at 2mph you shouldn't be trying to at 70. Get some more lessons and learn how.
    Not at all its about being realistic. Especially given how other people park, I have quite a wide car so I would rather park at the back of a car park and walk extra distance than squeeze between two cars parking on or over their respective lines.

    Parallel parking is master to learn IMO than motorway driving.
    Realistically, a man fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage is going to be a hazard down narrow winding country lanes. He shouldn't risk other people's safety just because he's so blasé about his own.
    Who says he's 'fearful of his own parking skills in a fixed size garage'? There's plenty of other ways to park other than a garage including but not limited to parallel parking and getting in and out of tight spaces with narrow lines.

    Parking spaces in this country are ridiculously tiny, especially if you have a big vehicle. Two big vehicles parked next to each other is like a comedy sketch trying to open the doors, no matter how decent a driver you are.

    I drove in Canada two years ago and I swear their generic parking spaces are wider than our disabled/parent and child spaces.
    He said he didn't fancy parking in a garage. He said he's rubbish at parking. Parking means controlling a car in occasionally tight spaces at a couple of miles per hour. If you haven't mastered that, you shouldn't be allowed to pass a driving test. I don't appreciate sharing full speed limit, narrow roads with people who can't master incredibly slow and simple manoeuvres.
    I'd far rather share roadspace with cautious drivers who are aware of their own limitations and drive accordingly than with deluded fools who think they are Lewis bloody Hamilton!
    My advice: don't ever go driving in Italy.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454
    Not lost in translation nor taken out of context.

    https://twitter.com/philmcnulty/status/1012383686648565760
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,454

    Worst place I've ever driven is San Francisco. Pot-head hippies and junctions on blind crests of hills.....

    Have you driven in Italy?

    Every lane is an overtaking lane and well traffic lights are generally seen as ornaments, not something to be followed.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,018

    Definitely time for disestablishment.

    If the then Archbishop of Canterbury is prepared to put the Church ahead of the protecting children then the Church needs to be removed as a part of the state.

    To be fair, the same can be said for many organisations in the past, including religious ones such as the Catholic church to secular ones such as the BBC or many councils.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    an interesting game if neither side wants to win,, what's the situation with red or yellow cards..
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,650
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    And CA has one of the better road safety records, like us in NY. I shudder to think what driving in the worst states must be like.

    I used to spend a lot of time in Denver, CO. People would go clubbing, and drink heavily, and then get into their cars and drive home. The number of accidents was horrendous. I think I saw three or four wrecks in just one weekend in Denver. That's inconceivable in the UK.
    In Georgia in the Seventies it was possible to drive aged 16, having driven around cones in the carpark and taken a multiple choice test. My brother got a GA license that way.

    Mind you he passed his UK motorcycle test despite falling off during the test. In those days the examiner just watched you ride around the block, and couldn't see you all the time.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    Definitely time for disestablishment.

    If the then Archbishop of Canterbury is prepared to put the Church ahead of the protecting children then the Church needs to be removed as a part of the state.

    These people call themselves Christians. It turns your stomach.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Worst place I've ever driven is San Francisco. Pot-head hippies and junctions on blind crests of hills.....

    Have you driven in Italy?

    Every lane is an overtaking lane and well traffic lights are generally seen as ornaments, not something to be followed.
    Italian saying: In Milan, traffic lights are an instruction, in Rome, a suggestion, and in Naples, decoration...
This discussion has been closed.