politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

DecrepitJohnL said:

david_herdson said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs1000 said:

The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

yes.

and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).

rcs

I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.

It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.

Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.

It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

another_richard said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Wrong.

Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671

The car factory they began building in 2015 ?

Do you think they were planning on leaving it idle ?

Tbh, it's a fairly standard business decision they've made. Move the mature manufacturing process of an older model to a lower cost centre, and use the higher cost centre to develop new models which will need much more oversight from UK based engineering teams. I really don't see what the fuss is all about.

As for Airbus UK, that is much more perilous, it's a French company, owned partially by the French government who are looking to bring back jobs and investment to France. Until now the Welsh operation has been highly efficient and kept itself in the game. Brexit gives the French government a huge stick to beat Airbus with and I think they would be stupid not to use it to their advantage to either get Airbus back to France, or to help Airbus to get some kind of subsidy or investment concession from the UK government.

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1010062724003516416

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

david_herdson said:

It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1010062724003516416

I'm am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further...

ralphmalph said:

david_herdson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

david_herdson said:

Alanbrooke said:

rcs

I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.

It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.

Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.

It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

The Czech Republic isn't in the Eurozone, though Slovakia is, and might well be one that's benefitted. The Benelux ones certainly have, for the same reasons as Germany and, as smaller economies, a common currency is more beneficial too. That might prove to be the case for the Baltic states too, though it's too early to tell there - where Eurozone membership is a strategic political decision as much as an economic one: it's essential to them that they are seen as part of the club by their large partners.

MaxPB said:

david_herdson said:

It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.

On what are you basing your €1=$2 assessment? I don't see why the Euro would rise so high as to cause a recession - certainly it would rise but the natural balances that would bring about would limit its extent.

HYUFD said:

volcanopete said:

If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

It can when Corbyn's aides now have a majority on the NEC and he needs working class Labour Leave seats for a majority

I think where you are wrong is that you are talking about Labour leave voters' attitudes 2 years ago. Wasn't it Yougov that reported that 28% of Labour Leave voters already think it was a mistake? If we do head towards a No Deal and Airbus looks like closing down in the UK the pressure on Corbyn to change his tune will become irresistible, It's debatabe how long he can hold the line now when only 19% of Labour voters think Brexit was the right decision.

david_herdson said:

The Czech Republic isn't in the Eurozone, though Slovakia is, and might well be one that's benefitted. The Benelux ones certainly have, for the same reasons as Germany and, as smaller economies, a common currency is more beneficial too. That might prove to be the case for the Baltic states too, though it's too early to tell there - where Eurozone membership is a strategic political decision as much as an economic one: it's essential to them that they are seen as part of the club by their large partners.

Talking of strategic political decisions relating to the Euro, this is a very sympathetic and interesting take on Helmut Kohl - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/helmut-kohls-theory-europe-thomas-klau/

That the euro had to be launched in a state of half-baked imperfection in 1999 was caused by the political impossibility at the time to get France, Germany and other key countries to agree to a fuller transfer of sovereign power. That the euro had to be launched anyway was due to the absolute urgency created by German unification — not, Kohl stressed time and again, because the euro was the price to pay for it; but because delaying its introduction beyond 1999 would allow re-united Germany to become so powerful amongst its neighbours that obtaining the consent of a political majority of Germans to trade their national currency for a European one would no longer be possible.

Germany, her Chancellor explained, was now labouring under the enormous burden of absorbing a bankrupt country of 17 million inhabitants. This created a temporary phase of relative German weakness that would not last long, a phase that must be seized to launch the euro because such an opportunity might never occur again. “Man muss den Mantel der Geschichte fassen”, said the Chancellor with his blurred Palatine accent; the ‘cloak of history’ must be grasped because soon, it would be too late; the danger of a fully sovereign united Germany destabilising Europe must be averted at any cost.

david_herdson said:

MaxPB said:

david_herdson said:

It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.

On what are you basing your €1=$2 assessment? I don't see why the Euro would rise so high as to cause a recession - certainly it would rise but the natural balances that would bring about would limit its extent.

Because that's what the DM would be worth around now. A currency rise that rapid would result in a deflationary spiral which would cause consumers to stop spending and that leads to a recession followed by years of dealing with the effects of deflation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Morning all,

Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

Project Grim Reality.

So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.

George Osborne’s golden legacy.

No that is BREXIT

BREXIT is such a massive fuck-up that Theresa May is quitting politics for a less stressful life working in Aldi.

After spending several weeks trying to stop MPs fighting over deals that will never exist, May is resigning to retrain as a store assistant at an Aldi in Bracknell.

May said: “As you might have noticed from my constant strained grimace and cack-handed bungling of everything I do, I’m finding Brexit to be a total fucking nightmare.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/may-jacking-it-in-for-job-at-aldi-20180622174493

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

MaxPB said:

Recidivist said:

rcs1000 said:

Recidivist said:

Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.

Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.

That €1.7bn is Airbus as a whole, not Airbus UK. Airbus UK looks to have posted a net operating loss in the UK (usually this is done via transfer pricing which transfers the profits into a lower tax centre like Ireland or the Netherlands) and received a tax credit for the year.

If only there was some kind of international organisation we could join that would have the power to mitigate the effects of transfer pricing.

tlg86 said:

Anazina said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

But he did call the 2015 GE correct from a long way out.

And 2010 and Trump. Personally I never saw any anti-semitic posts from him either, though I have not gone looking for such posts.

https://twitter.com/carlgardner/status/1010102787974328320

hamiltonace said:

I had a meeting with Scottish Enterprise recently and it made we were reflecting on how poor the Scottish economy has done in the last 10 years. Is the fact that our politics has been dominated by Scottish independence a contributory factor? It is hard to pin point one Government action that has led to the decline more a continual absence of positive action.
Many Scots including myself voted Tory at the last Scottish election for less and better politics. We are now caught up in a second nightmare with Brexit.

A factory closure is the last stage of a long process of under investment. Business investment is dire at the moment and this will catch up with us in the next 5 years. By then we will all be a lot poorer unless the Government quickly finds a way to reverse the trend.

Could try being an independent country with full control over all economic levers?

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Anazina said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

But he did call the 2015 GE correct from a long way out.

And 2010 and Trump. Personally I never saw any anti-semitic posts from him either, though I have not gone looking for such posts.

He said something about a book he had on WW2 that didn't talk about the holocaust. He certainly didn't clarify what he was getting at when he was accused of denying it ever happened.

Scott_P said:

What's that burning smell?

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1010103705897664513

Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

JonathanD said:

Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

With Nick Timothy starring as Alastair Campbell.

JonathanD said:

Scott_P said:

What's that burning smell?

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1010103705897664513

Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

With much worse weather.

felix said:

Anazina said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

Friends with JC no doubt.

Hardly! He was an oldfashioned right wing anti-semite, not a leftie one. A good electoral analyst apart from the cryptofacist tendencies though.

This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin:

https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1010085261584281600

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.

I didn't make any comment on his electoral prediction skills. I just hate the way some people seem to revere him. He is an ugly holocaust denier and the fact that he made some good bets on the way is completely irrelevant.

This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

Anazina said:

This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

Can Brexit withstand another 9 months of this?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1010108887465259009

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1010108887465259009

Boris Johnson is clearly lined up to be the hate figure when Brexit becomes utterly toxic, but I hope Michael Gove doesn't escape with any credibility.

https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1010109518716592129

Big_G_NorthWales said:

no one wants a no deal

No deal is better than a bad deal.

(c) Theresa May

Barnesian said:

edmundintokyo said:

I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

1) Car-crash brexit
2) No brexit
3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.

To satisfy both sides I think the referendum question would have to include no deal and remain in EU.

1. Reject deal and leave EU with no deal
2. Accept deal and leave EU
3. Reject deal and remain in EU (if they'll have us)

It could be FPTP or AV.

Under FPTP, (3) would probably win. Under AV, (1) would drop out first and transfer entirely to (2) so (2) would probably win.

Is an AV referendum a new concept?

Nemtynakht said:

Which it wasn't.

That is at best debatable, and may yet end up in court

Dura_Ace said:

JonathanD said:

Scott_P said:

What's that burning smell?

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1010103705897664513

Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

.

I suggest Remain are Shia and Leave are Sunni.

Makes Nigel Farage Sadam Hussain.

Scott_P said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

no one wants a no deal

No deal is better than a bad deal.

(c) Theresa May

That is negotiating speak as you well know

Mr P,

You need to begin your own journey to acceptance.

Stage 1: It didn't happen, it can't happen, we were right.
Stage 2: It's not fair. I'm always right. I'm clever.
Stage 3: They must have cheated.
Stage 4: They can't win, they smell.
Stage 5: I want my mum.

Scott_P said:

Nemtynakht said:

Which it wasn't.

That is at best debatable, and may yet end up in court

It is at worst debateable, and I doubt it will end up in court because unless there is some sort of collusionary evidence against Leave that is as yet unpublished then there is no case to answer.

Both sides acted in the same way. They both had supporters who lied. They both worked with other parts of the coalition of interests. Vote Leave even checked as it was going along that what it was doing was correct. You may see conspiracy if you want, but the best defence would be that all reasonable measures were taken, and checking with regulator and acting in the same way as the other campaign would seem to be that.

Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.

Indeed, 10 year maturity extension with a 10 year deferral of interest payments. Jam today but no write off.

David_Evershed said:

Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.

Indeed, 10 year maturity extension with a 10 year deferral of interest payments. Jam today but no write off.

Deferring interest sounds like jam today to me, unless that interest itself is accumulating interest.

Scott_P said:

CD13 said:

Mr Meeks has something right, you can't just cancel Brexit or even insist on another referendum without losing all democratic credibility.

You can if the original vote was illegitimate and is seen to be illegitimate

I've added the bit you missed. Even if the vote was illegitimate (and Remain have had two years to prove it wasn't), it won't make any practical difference unless there is broad agreement that that illegitimacy was sufficient to merit a second vote. Otherwise you get into the argument of the People versus the politicians. Given that even after all the difficulties of Brexit so far, and that Remain has continued campaigning whereas Leave hasn't, Remain only has a lead within MoE, it's entirely plausible that a second referendum that came about because the first one was widely seen to be tarnished could be won by Leave; an unnecessary referendum forced on the electorate by an unaccepting political class would almost inevitably provoke an 'up yours' response.

Lets look logically at the options …

The government cancels the result, apologises for the problems caused and returns chastened to the fold. Chance … less than 1%

The Government breaks off negotiations, goes for hard Brexit claiming intransigence by EU negotiators …. 10%

The Government concedes a new referendum, claiming people have changed their minds/major concessions by EU on FOM etc … 10%

The Government makes deal/fudge and claims victory … 40%

Softish Brexit agreed. All claim victory. Ukip resurfaces … 40%

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Barnesian said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass

I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.

But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.

Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.

What did you think the statement was going to be about?

Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD

Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.

Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.

I didn't make any comment on his electoral prediction skills. I just hate the way some people seem to revere him. He is an ugly holocaust denier and the fact that he made some good bets on the way is completely irrelevant.

Not on a site dedicated to betting on politics, it's not.

If it were a site dedicated to football and he was good at football I would think exactly the same way.

Nemtynakht said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand our position as a country. All forms of Brexit are self harm economically in the short term. There is no good story for the Government. So the interest for May et al, is to shape Brexit into something politically acceptable over a longer term if possible for their own supporters, and floating voters. The Conservatives are going to get blamed for Brexit in any case.

All forms of Brexit are politically damaging over the long term. They threaten the very viability of the UK as a state.

williamglenn said:

Nemtynakht said:

williamglenn said:

David_Evershed said:

Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.

I think you fundamentally misunderstand our position as a country. All forms of Brexit are self harm economically in the short term. There is no good story for the Government. So the interest for May et al, is to shape Brexit into something politically acceptable over a longer term if possible for their own supporters, and floating voters. The Conservatives are going to get blamed for Brexit in any case.

All forms of Brexit are politically damaging over the long term. They threaten the very viability of the UK as a state.

The UK (including NI) survived for decades before it joined the EEC and the SNP lost over a third of their seats after Brexit and the DUP won most seats in both post Brexit elections in NI

Mr Herdson,

"An unnecessary referendum forced on the electorate by an unaccepting political class would almost inevitably provoke an 'up yours' response."

It certainly would, and many politicians understand that. So it won't happen.

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

volcanopete said:

If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

It can when Corbyn's aides now have a majority on the NEC and he needs working class Labour Leave seats for a majority

I think where you are wrong is that you are talking about Labour leave voters' attitudes 2 years ago. Wasn't it Yougov that reported that 28% of Labour Leave voters already think it was a mistake? If we do head towards a No Deal and Airbus looks like closing down in the UK the pressure on Corbyn to change his tune will become irresistible, It's debatabe how long he can hold the line now when only 19% of Labour voters think Brexit was the right decision.

The Tories only need to win 8 Labour Leave seats on a swing of less than 1% for a majority in 2022