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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

Chart – Survation

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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,995
    What sort of EU are the Remain backers wanting? Is it continuation of muddled compromises, indirectly elected Commissioners, a weak legislature, with or without a common fiscal and monetary policy?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 928
    Looks like TB, GO and the rest are working their magic, in a week when the Magic money tree was shaken to show no BREXIT dividend, the Vote leave campaign was found to have broken rules and British industry come out againt the fantasies of JRM et al. looks to me like LEAVE are on the ropes
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Leave continuing to fail to persuade.

    Despite the findings of this poll that only one in six can even define Customs Union, no doubt the la-la Leavers will continue to insist that not leaving a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,719
    dr_spyn said:

    What sort of EU are the Remain backers wanting? Is it continuation of muddled compromises, indirectly elected Commissioners, a weak legislature, with or without a common fiscal and monetary policy?

    As opposed to what exactly in the UK?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    Sir John:

    But, of course, when the polls are this close, their real message is that nobody can be sure who might win if the referendum were to be run again – after all most, albeit not all, of the final referendum polls two years ago put Remain narrowly ahead, yet Leave still won. Moreover, in so far as there does appear to have been a slight swing to Remain, it is not the result of particular doubt amongst Leave voters about the wisdom of their choice. On average in recent polls, only 7% of those who said they voted Leave now say they would vote Remain – no more than the 7% of Remain voters who now say they would vote Leave. Rather the swing to Remain, such as it is, has been more or less wholly occasioned by the views of those who did not vote two years ago; 44% of this group now say they would vote Remain, while only 19% state that they would vote to Leave. Just how many of these voters would make it to the polls second time around is inevitably highly uncertain.

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/two-years-on-many-a-doubt-but-few-changed-minds/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,586
    The ‘Brexit dividend’ polling is good news for May.

    I smell a rat with the polling on a referendum on the final deal. Over a 20-point lead is a huge lead way out of kilter with previous polling, and must include a lot of Leavers too.

    I’d very much like to review the wording and methodology for that one.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    Sir John on a second referendum:

    This, though, has not stopped those who would like to see the Brexit decision reversed from campaigning in favour of a second referendum when the details of the deal have eventually been finalised. But this is an issue on which voters themselves are not only divided but is also one where the balance of opinion depends on how the issue is addressed. When on numerous occasions both Opinium and YouGov have asked voters whether there should be a referendum, they have consistently found that a majority are opposed. But when both companies have asked a different question, that is, whether the public should have a vote on the ‘final deal’ or should be allowed to have the ‘final say’, they have found majorities in favour (see here and here). That helps explain why the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign that is arguing in favour of another referendum describe the ballot as a ‘vote on the final Brexit deal’. But whether in the event voters would welcome another referendum on the deal is as uncertain as the likely outcome of any such ballot.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,043
    I see Survation has the Tory lead over Labour up by 300%! So easy to be selective with polling info.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,821

    Looks like TB, GO and the rest are working their magic, in a week when the Magic money tree was shaken to show no BREXIT dividend, the Vote leave campaign was found to have broken rules and British industry come out againt the fantasies of JRM et al. looks to me like LEAVE are on the ropes

    LOL. I need some if what you are smoking.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,043

    Looks like TB, GO and the rest are working their magic, in a week when the Magic money tree was shaken to show no BREXIT dividend, the Vote leave campaign was found to have broken rules and British industry come out againt the fantasies of JRM et al. looks to me like LEAVE are on the ropes

    LOL. I need some if what you are smoking.
    The big falls in borrowing shown in this week's figures suggest sound rather than magic money can fund the NHS.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,357

    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.

    Best of three?
  • kyf_100 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.

    Best of three?
    Yup. Will be the third referendum. 1975, 2016, and ?
  • After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,867

    kyf_100 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.

    Best of three?
    Yup. Will be the third referendum. 1975, 2016, and ?
    2057 :smiley:
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902

    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.

    I really doubt there will be a second referendum. As an aside - Thornberry has come out pretty strong against Chukka and the Labour rebels and any talk of overturning the referendum result.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-brexit-emily-thornberry-chuku-uminna-eu-referendum-a8410546.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,210
    edited June 2018
    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.

    And gives them advantages regarding tariffs (cf Bombardier).

    China would be, IMO, a huge mistake, as all they'll end up doing is transferring technology, and speeding up the development of a second competitor alongside Boeing.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829
    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?

    The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404
    edited June 2018
    RobD said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.

    Best of three?
    Yup. Will be the third referendum. 1975, 2016, and ?
    2057 :smiley:
    Can we face another 39 years of Brexit-elated bullshit?

    I'm exhausted after 3.

    Edit - that should have been 'related,' but it's a good typo and it's staying!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 22,719
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?

    The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    Very true!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    There is nothing new under the sun. Edward Gibbon may have been a rotten historian on a par with an Irving or a Carrier, but he was an astute observer of humanity's ostrich-like tendency.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    dr_spyn said:

    What sort of EU are the Remain backers wanting? Is it continuation of muddled compromises, indirectly elected Commissioners, a weak legislature, with or without a common fiscal and monetary policy?

    We hardly need to be in the EU to suffer muddled compromises, an indirectly elected executive and a weak legislature...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    This is the problem of winning a referendum with xenophobic lies. An entirely negative prospectus that appals a large section of the population and the negotiating partner gives no route map.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Leave continuing to fail to persuade.

    Despite the findings of this poll that only one in six can even define Customs Union, no doubt the la-la Leavers will continue to insist that not leaving a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.

    They don't have to persuade, they've already won.

    Some of these remain types are starting to resemble the Japanese troops holding out in the hills for decades after the war ended.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    To be fair - I suspect that's where most MPs in the Commons are. It's just noisy rebels, and the attention they are getting from the media, who haven't accepted the inevitable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Mr. Doethur, Gibbon did have some significant bias, particularly against the Eastern Empire, but that's rather unkind.

    On a second referendum: I do think that's a credible outcome. Not certain, perhaps not probable, but certain within the realm of plausible possibilities.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,586
    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.

    And gives them advantages regarding tariffs (cf Bombardier).

    China would be, IMO, a huge mistake, as all they'll end up doing is transferring technology, and speeding up the development of a second competitor alongside Boeing.
    We have the industrial base necessary too, and the full spectrum of aviation related skills, in which we are a world leader.

    Airbus are throwing their toys out the pram. It’s pretty obvious, barring the ultra-ideologues on both sides of the channel, that we will have a long gentle transition to a maximum facilitated regime in the early 2020s, which they will be able to live with even if they’d prefer not to.

    I agree with you on China. They’d simply nick all the technology. I’m not sure how keen the US Government and Boeing would be to onshore such a major competitor.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,043

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    Summer hols in Europe went up around 20+% when the £ crashed after the vote. Impact - zero.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    So why wouldn't they just crank up assembly there and close down their European operation altogether?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Leave continuing to fail to persuade.

    Despite the findings of this poll that only one in six can even define Customs Union, no doubt the la-la Leavers will continue to insist that not leaving a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.

    They don't have to persuade, they've already won.

    Some of these remain types are starting to resemble the Japanese troops holding out in the hills for decades after the war ended.
    Do you think that a decision that a majority of the public considers in retrospect was a mistake will stick?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 10,773
    Anyone want to describe the wholly unexpected Airbus announcement as Project Fear?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    Sir John:

    The EU is widely thought to be handling the Brexit process badly too. In March, for example, Ipsos MORI found that while 54% thought the UK government was doing a bad job handling Britain’s exit from the EU and only 38% thought it was doing a good job, equally 58% reckoned the EU was doing a bad job and only 30% a good one. And while Leave voters may have become more doubtful about the UK government’s performance, they are, unsurprisingly perhaps, even more likely to be critical of the role being played by the EU. Such a perspective is unlikely to encourage Leave voters to change their minds about the wisdom of leaving.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,867
    rkrkrk said:

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
    I thought they were the same thing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    There is nothing new under the sun. Edward Gibbon may have been a rotten historian on a par with an Irving or a Carrier, but he was an astute observer of humanity's ostrich-like tendency.
    Do you really think he was a rotten historian? I am not qualified to judge but I greatly enjoyed the broad sweep and the beautiful language. Surely the point of studying history is to learn lessons relevant to our own times and avoid repeating mistakes. Gibbon had strong views on that and, as you acknowledge, insight into human follies. That struck me as more useful than an overly pedantic objectivity of what the sources might actually show on each event.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?

    The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    The age skew of the Brexit vote means we won't be 'moving on' as a country anytime soon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404
    rkrkrk said:

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
    If they had the least clue what a 'Labour Brexit' would look like they might, but as nobody including it seems Starmer and Corbyn know what it would be that seems unlikely.

    (In all actuality, since at this stage no deal seems the likely outcome from both parties it's unlikely to make a difference.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 41,624

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I do not see how a second referendum would help at this stage.

    As far as Airbus is concerned I was under the impression they were already planning Chinese factories and of course they would produce the whole aircraft there.

    I do think it is a warning to both the EU and UK of the need for an agreement but the idea Airbus would just stop making wings in the UK in a year or so it not practical.

    Anyway the story will supercharge Faisal Islam and Adam Boulton on Sky as they delight at any threat to the UK from Europe
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    edited June 2018

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829
    JonathanD said:

    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?

    The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    The age skew od the Brexit vote means we won't be 'moving on' as a country anytime soon.
    We'll see. I suspect once we have left and that is the status quo the vast majority will wonder what all the fuss was about.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    Leave continuing to fail to persuade.

    Despite the findings of this poll that only one in six can even define Customs Union, no doubt the la-la Leavers will continue to insist that not leaving a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.

    They don't have to persuade, they've already won.

    Some of these remain types are starting to resemble the Japanese troops holding out in the hills for decades after the war ended.
    Do you think that a decision that a majority of the public considers in retrospect was a mistake will stick?
    It'll stick long enough to see it implemented, after that they may want to make a case for "join" but I suspect the required terms such as Euro membership and effective political union will be unpalatable to the British public.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 39,404
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    There is nothing new under the sun. Edward Gibbon may have been a rotten historian on a par with an Irving or a Carrier, but he was an astute observer of humanity's ostrich-like tendency.
    Do you really think he was a rotten historian? I am not qualified to judge but I greatly enjoyed the broad sweep and the beautiful language. Surely the point of studying history is to learn lessons relevant to our own times and avoid repeating mistakes. Gibbon had strong views on that and, as you acknowledge, insight into human follies. That struck me as more useful than an overly pedantic objectivity of what the sources might actually show on each event.
    He falsified his source material to support a predetermined point of view.

    That is what Holocaust Deniers do.

    Indeed, the fact she relied so heavily on Gibbon was one of the first signals to experts in the field (e.g. Averil Cameron) that Catherine Nixey was falsifying or at least gravely misunderstanding source material in her book The Darkening Age.

    Anyway, I must go. Have a good morning.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902


    On a second referendum: I do think that's a credible outcome. Not certain, perhaps not probable, but certain within the realm of plausible possibilities.

    At some point sure - very likely.
    We may want to rejoin.

    But before we leave in March?
    Less than 5% I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    rkrkrk said:

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
    Depends on which one of them you mean?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Mr. Meeks, depends on the egg.

    If it's boiled, it's boiled. After that, you can eat it or not, but you can't unboil it.

    But it works the other way too. Suppose we have a departure that (I suspect, do correct me if I'm wrong) you would like, the softest, in-name-only leaving. Single market, customs union, ECJ still wrapping its tentacles around Britannia etc.

    The impact on business would be minimal, but the restoration of democratic accountability and self-governance would also be minimal in degree. That too would provoke significant political disturbance, perhaps with I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP coming into being within months (a Farage-Banks organisation designed to avoid the infighting that plagued the purples).

    Whatever happens, regarding referendum part two, the transition, the deal/no deal, a significant proportion of the electorate will be very grumpy about it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    There is nothing new under the sun. Edward Gibbon may have been a rotten historian on a par with an Irving or a Carrier, but he was an astute observer of humanity's ostrich-like tendency.
    Was he really as bad as an Irving?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some North Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829
    Anyway, I must go on an urgent hunt for broccoli. We were so diverted by the fantasy of our strawberry crop rotting away in the fields unpicked that we seem to have missed something of a crisis with brassicas. Which might be fairly typical, in a way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    DavidL said:

    Anyway, I must go on an urgent hunt for broccoli. We were so diverted by the fantasy of our strawberry crop rotting away in the fields unpicked that we seem to have missed something of a crisis with brassicas. Which might be fairly typical, in a way.

    Come back Baldwin, all is forgiven?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    When JLR announced the end of UK Discovery production, this was cheered by the Brexiteers as "good news"

    Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.

    I have to ask, is there any British industry, the end of which might cause a Brexiteer to pause for thought?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025
    edited June 2018
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902
    edited June 2018
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
    If they had the least clue what a 'Labour Brexit' would look like they might, but as nobody including it seems Starmer and Corbyn know what it would be that seems unlikely.

    (In all actuality, since at this stage no deal seems the likely outcome from both parties it's unlikely to make a difference.)
    Think you're wrong on both counts.
    Labour Brexit position is softer than the Tory's, and includes staying in the customs union. I'm sure business would prefer Labour to go further, (and perhaps they could push for that).

    And I still think no deal is very very unlikely, and basically implausible for Labour who don't have the same red lines as the Tories, and have no free trade with the world ideologues to deal with.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Incidentally, F1 practice is at 11am. The French circuit seems, from the diagram, very akin to Canada's. We must hope there's rather more overtaking. The forecast is for it to be dry.

    Next month there are, it seems, four races. The French race is the first of three on the bounce, all of which should be good for Ferrari. Intrigued to see if Bottas can maintain his good form. He really should be a contender now, but for that Baku puncture.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,902
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    After the Airbus news there’s going to be a few more companies following suit.

    Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.

    I wonder whether we will see companies get more explicit about the fact that they prefer a Labour Brexit to a Tory Brexit.
    Depends on which one of them you mean?
    Which of what?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
    There is def assembly in Toulouse:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,586
    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?

    The exchange rates are no worse this summer than they were in the summer of 2016, and better than during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009.

    It’s a non-issue.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
    There is def assembly in Toulouse:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france

    Sorry, I meant in addition to Toulouse.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 41,624
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some North Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    That really is a silly comment. The wings for the A380 are floated down to Mostyn Dock from the huge Airbus factory in Broughton and transported by ship to Toulouse.

    The A320 wings are flown from Broughton to Toulouse in a converted A320 called a 'Beluga'

    It is a shame you try to belittle Wales
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Just perusing the World Cup tables, and have a question for those of you into the sport properly.

    In Group B Spain has moved ahead of Portugal. Both have identical results (DW) and goal differences, and even goals for and against precisely. In those circumstances, how does one get placed ahead of another? Official ranking?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    Yes. A320 wings are made in the UK and shipped to Hamburg, Mobile and Tiānjīn. Given Broughton is already beyond capacity and struggling to keep up with demand, the collocation of wing manufacture with final assembly should cone as no surprise. If anyone should be upset it should be Hamburg who have been “promised” this in the past.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 42,586
    Scott_P said:

    When JLR announced the end of UK Discovery production, this was cheered by the Brexiteers as "good news"

    Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.

    I have to ask, is there any British industry, the end of which might cause a Brexiteer to pause for thought?

    Is that the Slovakian plant that had been under development for several years, which JLR said was unconnected to Brexit, and the Solihull and Merseyside plants would be used to build the next generation of electric models?
  • Scott_P said:

    When JLR announced the end of UK Discovery production, this was cheered by the Brexiteers as "good news"

    Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.

    I have to ask, is there any British industry, the end of which might cause a Brexiteer to pause for thought?

    Brexiteers and Corbynites are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Who cares about the damage wrought on the economy so long as their ideology is implemented.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025

    Just perusing the World Cup tables, and have a question for those of you into the sport properly.

    In Group B Spain has moved ahead of Portugal. Both have identical results (DW) and goal differences, and even goals for and against precisely. In those circumstances, how does one get placed ahead of another? Official ranking?

    Number of Yellow and Red cards.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    Yes. A320 wings are made in the UK and shipped to Hamburg, Mobile and Tiānjīn. Given Broughton is already beyond capacity and struggling to keep up with demand, the collocation of wing manufacture with final assembly should cone as no surprise. If anyone should be upset it should be Hamburg who have been “promised” this in the past.
    Thank you :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?

    The exchange rates are no worse this summer than they were in the summer of 2016, and better than during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009.

    It’s a non-issue.
    That it has happened before (for relatively brief periods) doesn't make it a non issue. And the Euro has of course itself been weak; for the US and much of the ROW the current sustained £ weakness is more marked.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 34,392
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
    There is def assembly in Toulouse:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france

    Sorry, I meant in addition to Toulouse.
    Wikipedia says: "The site is responsible for the wing assembly for all Airbus aircraft, with the exception of the Chinese A320s (these wings are assembled in China) and the A400M (assembled in Filton). "
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,274
    edited June 2018
    I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

    1) Car-crash brexit
    2) No brexit
    3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
    4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

    I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    Yes. A320 wings are made in the UK and shipped to Hamburg, Mobile and Tiānjīn. Given Broughton is already beyond capacity and struggling to keep up with demand, the collocation of wing manufacture with final assembly should cone as no surprise. If anyone should be upset it should be Hamburg who have been “promised” this in the past.
    It would make most sense for Airbus to have a plant that can easily service Mobile and Tianjin - so either coastal in Asia, or on the US/Mexico West Coast.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,479

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?
    It’s not really the EU’s job to do that. It’s more the job of the people promoting party manifestos over the years that proudly proclaimed how they were committed to EU membership. The failure to convince is a failure of domestic politics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 66,327
    edited June 2018

    Just perusing the World Cup tables, and have a question for those of you into the sport properly.

    In Group B Spain has moved ahead of Portugal. Both have identical results (DW) and goal differences, and even goals for and against precisely. In those circumstances, how does one get placed ahead of another? Official ranking?

    Fair play. (Spain is ahead on this measure - no laughing at the back re Ramos & Costa.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 41,624

    I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

    1) Car-crash brexit
    2) No brexit
    3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
    4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

    I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.

    And the unknown that no remainer can confirm - just what the terms the EU would demand for us to reverse the decision in a referendum and remain
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 38,025
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
    There is def assembly in Toulouse:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france

    Sorry, I meant in addition to Toulouse.
    Wikipedia says: "The site is responsible for the wing assembly for all Airbus aircraft, with the exception of the Chinese A320s (these wings are assembled in China) and the A400M (assembled in Filton). "
    OK, so there is another wing assembly plant somewhere...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,411

    Scott_P said:

    When JLR announced the end of UK Discovery production, this was cheered by the Brexiteers as "good news"

    Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.

    I have to ask, is there any British industry, the end of which might cause a Brexiteer to pause for thought?

    Brexiteers and Corbynites are two cheeks of the same arse.

    Who cares about the damage wrought on the economy so long as their ideology is implemented.
    That makes Remainers the hole in the middle shit comes out of.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some South Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    A320s are - IIRC - assembled in both the US and China. What I don't know is if Airbus has just the one one wing manufacturing facility, or whether there are local suppliers for the US and China plants.
    There is def assembly in Toulouse:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france

    Widebodies (380, 350, 330) in Toulouse, narrowbody (320) in Hamburg, Mobile and Tiānjīn.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 49,245
    Scott_P said:


    Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.

    Where have Airbus announced this?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Is that the Slovakian plant that had been under development for several years, which JLR said was unconnected to Brexit

    They explicitly said it was a Brexit hedge.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    Anyway, I must go on an urgent hunt for broccoli. We were so diverted by the fantasy of our strawberry crop rotting away in the fields unpicked that we seem to have missed something of a crisis with brassicas. Which might be fairly typical, in a way.

    A Leaver who doesn't hate Brussels!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,411
    DavidL said:

    Does any of this matter?

    We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.

    I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.

    I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?

    The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    Indeed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,784
    Mr. 1000/Mr. Pulpstar, ah ha. Thanks.

    I think the F1 tie-breaker is wins. It might be (if those are equal) count back (so the last chap ahead wins).
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 15,274

    I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

    1) Car-crash brexit
    2) No brexit
    3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
    4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

    I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.

    And the unknown that no remainer can confirm - just what the terms the EU would demand for us to reverse the decision in a referendum and remain
    I'd have thought you'd get that confirmed in advance - the member states and the Commission basically unanimously want Brexit to go away, so it's hard to imagine them refusing to sign a bit of paper.

    But admittedly it's one more thing to choreograph, and it's not hard to imagine TMay somehow contriving some way to bollocks it up.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,411
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    So you keep saying.

    Yet you've spent the last two years being continually proved wrong.
  • What do you want to happen? I think even Alastair Meeks would agree that there is no great love for the EU in this country-many people think we are better off in it, but don't particularly like it and I think there is polling to prove that that is the case in many EU countries (I may have misremembered on this). If we just say "Feck it, let's call the whole thing off", what then? Back to how it was? Something else? What would the EU be prepared to offer to keep us in? Judging by how the negotiations have gone, many of the EU SMT don't seem to fancy reforming just for the UK. If there is some sort of referendum, and a narrow Remain victory, say 52-48, what then?
    Brexit may well have been the wrong decision, but the fact that it happened has at least shown that something was wrong in the minds of enough of the population to warrant looking at (or 52% of the population are racist, xenophobic little Englanders- even the ones who ain't English- you decide).

    Whilst acknowledging that we haven't actually left yet, none of the sides have ever really come up with convincing arguments to back up Project Fear or The Land Of Milk And Honey And Free Trade With Everybody, but it is about time one of them did.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,813
    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?
    It’s not really the EU’s job to do that. It’s more the job of the people promoting party manifestos over the years that proudly proclaimed how they were committed to EU membership. The failure to convince is a failure of domestic politics.
    Exactly so. Every other country in the EU has clear poll leads for remaining in the EU.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 37,829

    DavidL said:

    Anyway, I must go on an urgent hunt for broccoli. We were so diverted by the fantasy of our strawberry crop rotting away in the fields unpicked that we seem to have missed something of a crisis with brassicas. Which might be fairly typical, in a way.

    A Leaver who doesn't hate Brussels!
    LOL. But I really don't hate the other Brussels either.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,910
    Nigelb said:



    China would be, IMO, a huge mistake, as all they'll end up doing is transferring technology, and speeding up the development of a second competitor alongside Boeing.

    Airbus already make wings in China (via a subcontractor) for the Chinese A320 FAL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 31,210
    Is Ireland likely to reunite within a decade ?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/united-ireland-after-brexit-reunification-vote/

    It’s possible to see it as a win/win if the North were to see the economic growth the South has enjoyed - and rUK freed of the subsidy...
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,995
    Airbus - happy to set up final assembly lines in USA and China.

    http://www.airbus.com/aircraft/how-is-an-aircraft-built/final-assembly-and-tests.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 20,411

    What do you want to happen? I think even Alastair Meeks would agree that there is no great love for the EU in this country-many people think we are better off in it, but don't particularly like it and I think there is polling to prove that that is the case in many EU countries (I may have misremembered on this). If we just say "Feck it, let's call the whole thing off", what then? Back to how it was? Something else? What would the EU be prepared to offer to keep us in? Judging by how the negotiations have gone, many of the EU SMT don't seem to fancy reforming just for the UK. If there is some sort of referendum, and a narrow Remain victory, say 52-48, what then?
    Brexit may well have been the wrong decision, but the fact that it happened has at least shown that something was wrong in the minds of enough of the population to warrant looking at (or 52% of the population are racist, xenophobic little Englanders- even the ones who ain't English- you decide).

    Whilst acknowledging that we haven't actually left yet, none of the sides have ever really come up with convincing arguments to back up Project Fear or The Land Of Milk And Honey And Free Trade With Everybody, but it is about time one of them did.

    Politics works on Gresham's Law.

    Bad arguments drive out the good and extreme posturing drowns out attention to detail.
This discussion has been closed.