politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far tonight LAB doing worse than expectations while the Lib
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I said hope rather than will happen but it doesn't seem unrealistic for some compromises along the way on Brexit to annoy some Conservative voters from 2017... if that is the part you had a problem with...MaxPB said:
That's some serious wishful thinking. Are you for real?!TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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There seems to be a belief that it’ll be someone like Javid, so predictions seem based off off that. Right now it’s too early to tell who the Tories will go for because so many things can happen in a month, let alone a year.SouthamObserver said:
Depends on who the new leader is. A Rees Mogg or Johnson would keep the Labour vote solid.MaxPB said:
Possibly, at the same time Corbyn faced the worst Tory PM since Heath, the most unpopular policy ideas since the poll tax and he still didn't win. Take both of those our of the 2022 election and it means we've got a better chance of scraping a majority.not_on_fire said:
2022 will effectively be a referendum on how the Brexit deal has turned out.MaxPB said:I think one reason the Tories have reason to be happier is that in 2022 May won't be there and we won't have the same disaster policies.
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Just remember last year Labour polled 27% in the locals, a few weeks later they polled 40% at a general election.
That said, this is the first election that punters have got rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
Oh dear Jezzbolla oh dear0
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You called it wrong Alastair and you know you did.AlastairMeeks said:
It has swung further to Labour even from a relative highpoint. No doubt you will still delude yourself that this has nothing to do with Brexit.another_richard said:
London is clearly not voting as if it was an 'occupied city'.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s pretty much my take on them too.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
Certainly the Conservatives are losing ground in London in the same way that centre-right parties are struggling in big cities across the western world.
Now lets look at some of the other factors which has damaged the Conservatives in London - four more years of demographic change, shantytownisation of suburbia, falling home ownership, graduates with £50k of debt.0 -
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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I'm in a somewhat similar position lower down the scale - £200K cash, £30K pensions, £20K self-employed earnings, plus a good job, but I'm 68. I'd like to borrow £200K for a small house, but I can't borrow ANYTHING on employment income, whereas I can borrow on the self-employed income which objectively is less secure.kjh said:
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
Charles very helpfully recommended Ascot, a brokers who specialise in non-standard situations, and they've found me an interest-only loan running till I'm 75 (no doubt paying off some of it with the employment income) plus equity release thereafter (I have no kids and don't much care about property value when I'm dead). I'll probably do that. But it's a very specialised market, and shouldn't be.0 -
Just remember last year Labour polled 27% in the locals, a few weeks later they polled 40% at a general election. That said, this is the first election that punters have got rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.0
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Your favourite person Tim Montgomerie was saying something along those lines on twitter last night.TheScreamingEagles said:Just remember last year Labour polled 27% in the locals, a few weeks later they polled 40% at a general election.
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Great to see the anti semitism issue has cost Labour
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The one lib dem on Barnet has lost his seat to Labour, in Childs Hill. Conservatives have retained the other two seats. I read Barnet very wrong.0
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Southgate has finally declared, with a tie between second and third place. 2 Lab gains from Con, 1 Con hold:
Lab 1896
Con 1809
Lab 1809
Lab 1803
Con 1727
Con 1666
Green 511
LD 434
LD 313
https://governance.enfield.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=218&RPID=670467230 -
I think it will be a Con gain.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Newcastle-under-Lyme - newly all-up - should be an interesting one0 -
If you REALLY think Brexit has no impact on cost of living, wages, housing, infrastructure, tax, then what was the fucking point?Alanbrooke said:Only in the Euronutter mind. They are directly affected by our own government policy and spending.
Brexiteers said all those things would improve, and many, many people voted for £350m for the NHS.
Last time I checked, that was infrastructure...0 -
Well Jezbolla isn't the answerJonathan said:
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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Equity release is the selling of an asset which you already own.kjh said:
I agree. I never suggested otherwise. I was not talking about the particular case of which I have no knowledge but your incredulity to 75 year olds being given interest only loans which on the face of it appears logical but is plainly nonsense in many many cases.another_richard said:
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.kjh said:OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
The nonsense is demonstrated with Equity Release which is just the same. These days in most schemes you retain 100% ownership, but with a charge on the property.
Now what would I call that. I would call that a mortgage? Wouldn't you? And I can get it interest only, what is more I can get it interest free (with the interest rolling up on the loan) so worse than you were complaining about.
Do you want to ban those as well?
As to interest-only loans I'm very much against them as they encourage the greedy and the stupid to live beyond their means and then to demand help when their inevitable failure to repay occurs.0 -
So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
The problem is that according to the reports posted on here last night the couple still have a £180,000 mortgage on a house valued at £250,000 and wanted to take out a further mortgage. This is not just jobsworths. They are clearly not managing their finances and Neither Equity release nor remortgaging would be possible under these circumstances. Sad as it is for the couple, the bank appears to be absolutely correct, not just in terms of sticking to the letter of the law but basic practicality.kjh said:OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?0 -
On the other side, we had a terrible PM in 2017 and a disaster set of policies. Neither of those will be repeated in 2022 while Labour will be offering exactly the same as what they gave us in 2017 and came up short.TheJezziah said:
I said hope rather than will happen but it doesn't seem unrealistic for some compromises along the way on Brexit to annoy some Conservative voters from 2017... if that is the part you had a problem with...MaxPB said:
That's some serious wishful thinking. Are you for real?!TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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Can I mention West Hendonchloe said:The one lib dem on Barnet has lost his seat to Labour, in Childs Hill. Conservatives have retained the other two seats. I read Barnet very wrong.
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Unless you are proposing time travel then going back to something because it worked in 1997 is pointless because it isn't 1997. Three years ago we took a more right wing approach than the one we took in the 2017 election, it got us millions less votes. Whilst it may please some on the right of the party it doesn't make sense to sacrifice the millions of voters we've gained to try and chip away and the Tory vote and still fail anyway. Not only do I prefer our current strategy but I think it is more likely to succeed electorally.Jonathan said:
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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Its not the same without Peter Snow prancing about in front of a CGI of the HoC.TheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
Labour, yet to master the art of expectation management…!0
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I didn't vote Leave for economic reasons.Scott_P said:
If you REALLY think Brexit has no impact on cost of living, wages, housing, infrastructure, tax, then what was the fucking point?Alanbrooke said:Only in the Euronutter mind. They are directly affected by our own government policy and spending.
Brexiteers said all those things would improve, and many, many people voted for £350m for the NHS.
Last time I checked, that was infrastructure...
Two years on and people like you still cant get that.0 -
I also mooted the possibility of West Hendon changing hands and had it poo-pooed. I suspect this is down to the estate regeneration, which has led to a demographic shift in favour of the Toriesanother_richard said:So the Conservatvies gained all three seats in West Hendon ward !
Now which PBer was musing about the possibility of that happening earlier this week ?
I think it was the same PBer who had a 40/1 winner on the Royal Baby name market.0 -
... and Ed Miliband would have been PM in 2011, 2012, etc etcTheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992287533600948229
facile analysis of that projection is facile.0 -
Yes I got that one very wrong!another_richard said:
Can I mention West Hendonchloe said:The one lib dem on Barnet has lost his seat to Labour, in Childs Hill. Conservatives have retained the other two seats. I read Barnet very wrong.
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Twitter is fun this morning. Lots of blaming the MSM for false anti Semitism smears over JC.SimonStClare said:Labour, yet to master the art of expectation management…!
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How the hell would we get a stable government out of that?TheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
They got their expectations management spectacularly wrongBig_G_NorthWales said:Saduq Khan - 'I don't think it is realistic to expect overnight miracles from labour'
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You extrapolated from that to "nobody will vote in future elections for economic reasons resulting from Brexit", which is bollocks.Alanbrooke said:I didn't vote Leave for economic reasons.
Two years on and people like you still cant get that.0 -
I think we learned in 2017 local elections results might not be predictive of General Elections.TheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
Morning all,
Just catching up. Decided sleep better than live result watching. Must be getting old.
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Local results don't translate well into GE projections. Hague got smashed in 2001 but did pretty well in 2000.TheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
2017 was a response to Brexit and link 2015 Milliband was very weak. Who said anything about right wing? We're talking about the centre.TheJezziah said:
Unless you are proposing time travel then going back to something because it worked in 1997 is pointless because it isn't 1997. Three years ago we took a more right wing approach than the one we took in the 2017 election, it got us millions less votes. Whilst it may please some on the right of the party it doesn't make sense to sacrifice the millions of voters we've gained to try and chip away and the Tory vote and still fail anyway. Not only do I prefer our current strategy but I think it is more likely to succeed electorally.Jonathan said:
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
Labour needs to stop talking to itself, combine talent from all traditions and deal the world as it is, not how it would prefer it to be.
At the moment Labour is stuck.
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All the forecasts are based on the 51 councils still to be declared being roughly in line with the 99 already declared. Maybe they won't be.0
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Heart of stone etcScott_P said:0 -
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Well, there's a surprise.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Twitter is fun this morning. Lots of blaming the MSM for false anti Semitism smears over JC.SimonStClare said:Labour, yet to master the art of expectation management…!
Still saying it's all a smear, even though their own dear leader has told them it is not.0 -
Ross Hawkins - @rosschawkins: General Secretary of UKIP Paul Oakley compares UKIP to the black death. "What's wrong with that?" he asks0
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Ahh yes the mythical new leader and new policies that will come in and make everything better. Sure it might work but May brought in a lot of voters despite her wooden performances, will as many voters have the same kind of faith in a new Tory leader?MaxPB said:
On the other side, we had a terrible PM in 2017 and a disaster set of policies. Neither of those will be repeated in 2022 while Labour will be offering exactly the same as what they gave us in 2017 and came up short.TheJezziah said:
I said hope rather than will happen but it doesn't seem unrealistic for some compromises along the way on Brexit to annoy some Conservative voters from 2017... if that is the part you had a problem with...MaxPB said:
That's some serious wishful thinking. Are you for real?!TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
There also won't be the advantage of saying who do you want to negotiate Brexit... or coalition of chaos.. both those lines have been weakened. Also it will then be up to 7 years of Conservative government without the Lib Dems to share any blame on, or 12 if you include them. Not only will lines about the last Labour government start sounding tired but some voters will get a little fatigued with the governments continued rule. Plenty of positives for Labour going into the next election.
It isn't a foregone conclusion but I think most on the Labour side are looking forward to it.0 -
Looks like LibDems are slowly recovering some vim.0
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Have we got the result for Croydon?
I want to see how close Survation were.0 -
WonderfulScott_P said:0 -
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Brexit is priced in, we've had the vote, the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff, wages are rising employment is full on.Scott_P said:
You extrapolated from that to "nobody will vote in future elections for economic reasons resulting from Brexit", which is bollocks.Alanbrooke said:I didn't vote Leave for economic reasons.
Two years on and people like you still cant get that.
Domestic issues will determine the election.
2017 May fought on Brexit and Corbyn on domestic - car crash. Next time round it will be real issues, the electorate is moving on but youre not.0 -
Nick, if I'm honest if you aren't in the mainstream I think it is always achievable through a broker of some sort, but you shouldn't have to.NickPalmer said:
I'm in a somewhat similar position lower down the scale - £200K cash, £30K pensions, £20K self-employed earnings, plus a good job, but I'm 68. I'd like to borrow £200K for a small house, but I can't borrow ANYTHING on employment income, whereas I can borrow on the self-employed income which objectively is less secure.kjh said:
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
Charles very helpfully recommended Ascot, a brokers who specialise in non-standard situations, and they've found me an interest-only loan running till I'm 75 (no doubt paying off some of it with the employment income) plus equity release thereafter (I have no kids and don't much care about property value when I'm dead). I'll probably do that. But it's a very specialised market, and shouldn't be.
Of course with many loans now being short term you take one out having to logically assume you will be able to replace it when needed and if some arbitrary nonsense rule is introduced, when you can plainly show you are of no risk, you are presented with the situation where no loan is available.
When I took my last mortgage out I had a similar jobs worth response to you (a broker sorted it for me). I owned my own company. It had a significant cash balance which I was releasing through dividends up to the 40% personal tax band each year for the next umpteen years. It was all I needed. The money was secure. I was a consultant with no meaningful overheads. The bank would take a salary into consideration but not dividends. If I was an employee I could be made redundant the next day, so not secure. These payments were a dead cert and could be demonstrated so, but no they are dividends and we can't take them into account. Less secure income was ok.
A case of apply the rules and not looking at the personal circumstances.0 -
This is the bubble some in Labour are in.Scott_P said:0 -
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The Conservative leader of Barnet Council leader said voters were more concerned about "local issues" than with accusations of anti-Semitism within Labour.
Richard Cornelius told the Press Association: "They are all basic issues. It's things like potholes, the collection of their rubbish bins and keeping the council tax low.
"Of course there is a concern about anti-Semitism in the Jewish areas, and of course there is a wider concern about it more generally.
"People are horrified, and Labour have to address that."
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I think Hunt would also struggle to eat into the Labour vote. Javid I have no idea about. My sense is that the country is extremely polarised and one of the big two will have to do something fairly dramatic to change that. I don’t think events alone will do it.MaxPB said:
Neither stand a chance though, it's more likely to be someone like Javid or Hunt.SouthamObserver said:
Depends on who the new leader is. A Rees Mogg or Johnson would keep the Labour vote solid.MaxPB said:
Possibly, at the same time Corbyn faced the worst Tory PM since Heath, the most unpopular policy ideas since the poll tax and he still didn't win. Take both of those our of the 2022 election and it means we've got a better chance of scraping a majority.not_on_fire said:
2022 will effectively be a referendum on how the Brexit deal has turned out.MaxPB said:I think one reason the Tories have reason to be happier is that in 2022 May won't be there and we won't have the same disaster policies.
If I were a Labour member then I wouldn't be counting on that to do well in 2022.
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Blair won 1800 seats in 1995, two years before a GE and years into a Tory govt when the economy was doing well.
Corbyn has won 40.
LOL.0 -
Several of those Lib Dem seats would be Conservative at Parliamentary level.TheScreamingEagles said:So based on last night's result Corbyn could become PM as the Tories go backwards.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9922875336009482290 -
It's blaring out at themJonathan said:
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?TheJezziah said:
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.not_on_fire said:These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
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NEW THREAD
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2017 Labour tally was because of Corbyn, the Conservative tally was because of Brexit. We increased our vote by more than the Conservatives in seats that voted leave by a small margin, we increased in it seats that voted leave (generally) just by less than the Conservatives. A different 'centrist' leader would have been smashed. In fact most leaders who had the party declaring war to try and get rid of the leader would have struggled to get anywhere near where Corbyn did. The fact he did that after some in the parties best attempts to sabotage him along the way shows that is where the public wants us to go.Jonathan said:
2017 was a response to Brexit and link 2015 Milliband was very weak. Who said anything about right wing? We're talking about the centre.TheJezziah said:
Unless you are proposing time travel then going back to something because it worked in 1997 is pointless because it isn't 1997. Three years ago we took a more right wing approach than the one we took in the 2017 election, it got us millions less votes. Whilst it may please some on the right of the party it doesn't make sense to sacrifice the millions of voters we've gained to try and chip away and the Tory vote and still fail anyway. Not only do I prefer our current strategy but I think it is more likely to succeed electorally.Jonathan said:
When the chips are down, the blues turnout. You can count on it. Labour needs a strategy to chip off enough of the centre voters to win. If only there was some kind of precedent.TheJezziah said:
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.Jonathan said:TheJezziah said:
Labour needs to stop talking to itself, combine talent from all traditions and deal the world as it is, not how it would prefer it to be.
At the moment Labour is stuck.
We need the Chancellor and leader to be on the same page but he did offer other roles to people and they walked out. Unfortunately many on the right would rather continue to be at war with the leadership and then complain constantly about the party talking to itself, it seems to be a favourite line of Richard Angell when he isn't trashing members of the party or groups that represent them like momentum for various reasons.
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The problem is that according to the reports posted on here last night the couple still have a £180,000 mortgage on a house valued at £250,000 and wanted to take out a further mortgage. This is not just jobsworths. They are clearly not managing their finances and Neither Equity release nor remortgaging would be possible under these circumstances. Sad as it is for the couple, the bank appears to be absolutely correct, not just in terms of sticking to the letter of the law but basic practicality.
Wasn't talking about the particular situation (of which I have no knowledge) but Another Richard's overall view on 75 year olds having interest only mortgage.
I have to say I have heard stories of people having interest only mortgages who then have no idea at the end of it that they have the full capital to pay off. The jobs worth element is banks not having the ability to judge and manage risk and just applying rules blindly rather than evaluating each on their own merits.
Not giving interest only loans to 75 years is silly as is giving interest only loans to people who have no plan or means of paying it off the capital.0 -
another_richard said:
Equity release is the selling of an asset which you already own.kjh said:
I agree. I never suggested otherwise. I was not talking about the particular case of which I have no knowledge but your incredulity to 75 year olds being given interest only loans which on the face of it appears logical but is plainly nonsense in many many cases.another_richard said:kjh said:OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
The nonsense is demonstrated with Equity Release which is just the same. These days in most schemes you retain 100% ownership, but with a charge on the property.
Now what would I call that. I would call that a mortgage? Wouldn't you? And I can get it interest only, what is more I can get it interest free (with the interest rolling up on the loan) so worse than you were complaining about.
Do you want to ban those as well?
As to interest-only loans I'm very much against them as they encourage the greedy and the stupid to live beyond their means and then to demand help when their inevitable failure to repay occurs.
No it isn't. You don't seem to be up to date with the latest packages. You retain 100% ownership. I'm sitting here with offers in front of me.
It is up to the banks to filter out those that are stupid and evaluate the risk. It is very arrogant of you to determine what I can and can not do.0 -
kjh said:
The problem is that according to the reports posted on here last night the couple still have a £180,000 mortgage on a house valued at £250,000 and wanted to take out a further mortgage. This is not just jobsworths. They are clearly not managing their finances and Neither Equity release nor remortgaging would be possible under these circumstances. Sad as it is for the couple, the bank appears to be absolutely correct, not just in terms of sticking to the letter of the law but basic practicality.
Wasn't talking about the particular situation (of which I have no knowledge) but Another Richard's overall view on 75 year olds having interest only mortgage.
I have to say I have heard stories of people having interest only mortgages who then have no idea at the end of it that they have the full capital to pay off. The jobs worth element is banks not having the ability to judge and manage risk and just applying rules blindly rather than evaluating each on their own merits.
Not giving interest only loans to 75 years is silly as is giving interest only loans to people who have no plan or means of paying it off the capital.
Sorry got my Quote manipulation wrong - hope it makes sense!0 -
Sorry got my Quote manipulation wrong - hope it makes sense!kjh said:kjh said:The problem is that according to the reports posted on here last night the couple still have a £180,000 mortgage on a house valued at £250,000 and wanted to take out a further mortgage. This is not just jobsworths. They are clearly not managing their finances and Neither Equity release nor remortgaging would be possible under these circumstances. Sad as it is for the couple, the bank appears to be absolutely correct, not just in terms of sticking to the letter of the law but basic practicality.
Wasn't talking about the particular situation (of which I have no knowledge) but Another Richard's overall view on 75 year olds having interest only mortgage.
I have to say I have heard stories of people having interest only mortgages who then have no idea at the end of it that they have the full capital to pay off. The jobs worth element is banks not having the ability to judge and manage risk and just applying rules blindly rather than evaluating each on their own merits.
Not giving interest only loans to 75 years is silly as is giving interest only loans to people who have no plan or means of paying it off the capital.
Yep entirely. I agree with you. I had only thought you were referring to this case.
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