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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far tonight LAB doing worse than expectations while the Lib

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    I'll be interested to see the NEV shares, but my view is that these are good results for both the LDs and the Conservative Parties.

    In the LD case, they're likely to have added 2 councils (Richmond, Kingston) and 50-60 councillors. Now, they're not back at 2010 levels, but these are probably the best local election results since.

    The Conservative Party has not suffered a meltdown in London, and have done well outside.

    And the Labour Party has had a pretty poor evening.
    I think that the Lib Dem’s are being flattered by comparison with a disaster last time out for these seats but at least the slide has stopped. It will take them a very long time to recover their former strength in local government at this rate but it is a start. Labour has to be disappointed. The government is really struggling, many are unhappy about “austerity” , real wages have not increased for a year and they are making very little inroads.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    And no, the results are not in line with national polling.

    The LDs are down c. 4% in national poll share since 2014, while the Conservatives and Labour are up. Now, there was a lot of Remainia voting yesterday, but I didn't expect the LDs to be leading the seat gain total, and nor, I suspect, did anyone else.
    I saw a graphic that suggested this was translate (in a GE) to Con 305 Lab 261 Lib Dems 26, which doesn't seem far off national polling given it hasn't moved too much from the general election polls?

    Think it was Lewis Goodall on Twitter.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    AndyJS said:

    West Hendon, 2018:

    Con: 2196, 2155, 2130
    Lab: 2078, 2074, 2014
    Greens: 299
    LD: 264, 238, 184

    West Hendon, 2014:

    Lab: 1794, 1769, 1747
    Con: 1488, 1459, 1357
    UKIP: 445
    Greens: 307, 300, 292
    LD: 172, 163, 163

    West Hendon is one of Barnet’s most deprived wards.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,288
    Not sure that the ID issue worked to Labour's advantage - noticed this from BBC.

    "Turnout was up in Swindon, suggesting the ID pilot did not affect the vote there."
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    rkrkrk said:

    Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

    HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

    Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

    Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

    The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/992269678172028929

    Corbyn surge...look at Twitter, why aren't BBC reporting about voting in elections today. Have some eggs hit some faces this morning?

    Corbynite abuse for Laura K ... incoming..
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    RobD said:

    NeilVW said:

    Very encouraging stuff.

    This will give Theresa a mild boost.

    You say that as if it were a good thing.

    I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
    No elections in Cornwall this year! :smile:
    Is Cornwall now the biggest council in the realm? Birmingham down to a puny 100 councillors.
    Cornwall is bring reduced to 87 for its next elections. Wiltshire is at 98 but in the middle of an electoral review. Durham I think still well above 100.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    chloe said:

    AndyJS said:

    West Hendon, 2018:

    Con: 2196, 2155, 2130
    Lab: 2078, 2074, 2014
    Greens: 299
    LD: 264, 238, 184

    West Hendon, 2014:

    Lab: 1794, 1769, 1747
    Con: 1488, 1459, 1357
    UKIP: 445
    Greens: 307, 300, 292
    LD: 172, 163, 163

    West Hendon is one of Barnet’s most deprived wards.
    In line with wards outside of London.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    A funny comment from a momentum labour I saw was an opening about it being a mixed night, then complaining why Plymouth wasn't been talked about enough.

    It was, but as you just said, it was a mixed night.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421

    Very encouraging stuff.

    This will give Theresa a mild boost.

    You say that as if it were a good thing.

    I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
    I bet on Labour in London, and lost. And I am happy with that.

    I think the Conservatives going heavy on local issues (weekly bin collections and low council tax) at a national level was clearly the right strategic decision.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just 3 councils that started counting last night still to declare.
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    flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
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    flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

    HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

    Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

    Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

    The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.
    Looks like not very much has changed to me.
    Imagine the Tories will be happier with that than Labour.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Very encouraging stuff.

    This will give Theresa a mild boost.

    You say that as if it were a good thing.

    I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
    I bet on Labour in London, and lost. And I am happy with that.

    I think the Conservatives going heavy on local issues (weekly bin collections and low council tax) at a national level was clearly the right strategic decision.
    those leaflets with the two sides of one road having different council tax- were so simple yet genius at the same time. Tories tried it in a lot of places.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The cult of Corbyn are upset and confused this morning. MSM and BBC amongst those to blame so far.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
    daodao said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    IMO, Trafford is the best result.
    I can see why you would think that. The Tories losing their last Council in the North West is a blow to them. It also counters the Labour are only doing well in London meme. But you must be disappointed that so many relatively easy targets have slipped away.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Oops, forgot also the Blairites and electorate also taking their share of the blame.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    AndyJS said:

    Labour have done well in Plymouth and Trafford, and also in Wandsworth to a certain extent.

    Trafford is the biggest disappointment.

    Otherwise it’s a (puts on Canadian accent) a terrrrrrible night for the Labour Party.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    rkrkrk said:

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Looking forward to the thread header on these local election results - not really sure what to make of it all.

    HavinG been up all night following it my impression is

    Con - held some tricky ones, some decent gains, but they still got hit in a few places quite hard. Overall, about what they would have hoped.

    Labour - higher expectations mean so far failure to break through in some admittedly tough areas equals relative disappointment, but there's bright spots and not a disaster.

    The lds gained big in some target areas, so a good night.
    Looks like not very much has changed to me.
    Imagine the Tories will be happier with that than Labour.
    Yes, in my sleep deprived state that I forgot to add that important context - everyone got some prizes, some more than other, but in the midst of no sweeping changes as a trend.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
    the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    nunuone said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
    the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.
    Holding the line in terms of councils, I imagine, albeit not without casualties
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    nunuone said:
    I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.

    They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.
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    flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    Brunswick Park is only 5% Jewish, it's on the border with Southgate.
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    flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    Brunswick Park is only 5% Jewish, it's on the border with Southgate.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    Sky News:

    Labour made 4 gains in Plymouth, 3 from UKIP, 1 from Tories.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    nunuone said:
    Lol
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    kle4 said:

    nunuone said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
    the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.
    Holding the line in terms of councils, I imagine, albeit not without casualties
    Sorry should have been clearer. The results show labour going backwards in London compared to GE 2017. They had 20% lead then.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    Labour are stuck.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Recount in Childs Hill. Explains the delay there. LDs are defending a seat.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
    In terms of control but they have been wiped off some more London councils and may have lost 2 councils to the Lib Dem’s. It could have been a lot worse and probably should have been.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Well our own David Herdson and TSE predicted this.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/992277428507570176
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    Problem is most Corbynites still think victory is just around the corner when the country comes to its senses.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour are toxic under this regime - are their supporters too thick to see this or in denial ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Also being too Brexit and not Brexit enough being blamed.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    edited May 2018
    I imagine the places where Labour have won ukip seats are just fine though.

    Also, in the same way tories needed to decide if Corbyn was a joke or dangerous, I got confused between how media attacks damage labour, but at other times its bragged the media attacks fail to do so.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    TGOHF said:

    Labour are toxic under this regime - are their supporters too thick to see this or in denial ?

    Neither, they’re in love.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    nunuone said:
    I think the assumption that Jews would rebel against Labour but non-Jews would stick with Corbyn was badly mistaken.

    They are all neighbours, and probably friends in many instances, and will be more likely to be angry at how they’ve been treated and made to feel.
    yes, this is what I've been thinking.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Enfield, Winchmore Hill has moved from 2 Con, 1 Lab to 2 Lab, 1 Con.

    https://governance.enfield.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=222&RPID=67046723
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    AndyJS said:

    Recount in Childs Hill. Explains the delay there. LDs are defending a seat.

    Apparently there was 50 votes difference in one of the Childs Hill seats.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    which councils are tories now wiped out from in London?
    Southwark is one...any others?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    kle4 said:

    nunuone said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    But, the Tories have managed to hold the line in London.
    the results apparently suggest a labour lead of 16/17% in London.
    Holding the line in terms of councils, I imagine, albeit not without casualties
    Yep.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Enfield, Southgate must be very close because it's the only result from that council which hasn't been declared yet. This was the previous result in 2014:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/116/
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    Conservatives held Winchester by a solitary seat, with the Lib Dems gaining two seats.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    edited May 2018
    kle4 said:

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.
    It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

    However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

    On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

    If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunuone said:

    which councils are tories now wiped out from in London?
    Southwark is one...any others?

    That's the only new one I think. Barking and Dagenham continues to be 100% Labour.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,352
    Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited May 2018
    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2018
    nunuone said:

    Well our own David Herdson and TSE predicted this.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/992277428507570176

    Indeed, the only incredible part is Hodges wanting people to believe that any serious commentator would find this incredible.

    As kle4 said earlier, everyone must have prizes.
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    daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    IMO, Trafford is the best result.
    I can see why you would think that. The Tories losing their last Council in the North West is a blow to them. It also counters the Labour are only doing well in London meme. But you must be disappointed that so many relatively easy targets have slipped away.
    Trafford is my local council, and the Tory administration has been poor.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    Jonathan said:
    That's the set of seats that are up next year.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Southwark results. Tories lost Village by 299 votes to Labour, although there were boundary changes:

    http://www.southwark.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/voting-and-elections/elections-notices-and-results-for-individual-wards#Dulwich Village
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,024

    Conservatives held Winchester by a solitary seat, with the Lib Dems gaining two seats.

    Only a third of the council up, and the LDs led 9-6, so one would expect it to fall to the LDs next time around.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control

    I was going to ask if any seats have changed hands but I've just remembered that the boundary changes are going to make it difficult to say.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,014
    Must be the first time for some years that the number of Independent, or local party seats has increased.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    edited May 2018

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    What progress?

    Labour are two seats ahead of where they were in 2010, at the end of 13 years in power and against a divided opposition. Labour have rallied the opposition to one party, alienated their core support outside London, removed all experienced heavyweights from frontline politics and replaced them with what look like overgrown students from the University of Gloucestershire politics course, failed to agree a coherent position on Brexit, made a number of policy promises that they have admitted despite earlier claims to the contrary were uncosted and they never had any intention of implementing, and gained the support of the former leader of the BNP. On top of that, on tonight's evidence they aren't making significant progress even in the country's main conurbations, unlike just about every other left-wing party in the world.

    The saving grace for Labour is that May is almost as shite. But an opposition built on the government's weakness with no strength of its own is a poor opposition as Cameron and Kinnock both found to their cost.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.
    It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

    However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

    On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

    If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.
    Unless labour pick McDonnell, whoever they pick, better or worse, won't have as much baggage as Corbyn of course.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    Nah Jezza must stay ! He’s done more to keep Labour down than the PM.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    Oh, Jeremy Corbyn.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    8% swing from Lab to Con in Finchley Church End.

    https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992282374619545600
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,352
    AndyJS said:

    Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control

    I was going to ask if any seats have changed hands but I've just remembered that the boundary changes are going to make it difficult to say.
    Well the 2014 council was
    Lab 35
    Con 25
    LD 3

    Look how divided the borough was:

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Redbridge_London_UK_local_election_2014_map.svg
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.
    It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

    However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

    On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

    If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.
    Unless labour pick McDonnell, whoever they pick, better or worse, won't have as much baggage as Corbyn of course.
    But will they have the same personal appeal and skill at campaigning?

    I can't see such a person.

    Also I do wonder if the fact everyone was certain he couldn't win did go some way towards negating all his baggage.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Half of Redbridge wards have declared - Labour sure to retain control

    I was going to ask if any seats have changed hands but I've just remembered that the boundary changes are going to make it difficult to say.
    Well the 2014 council was
    Lab 35
    Con 25
    LD 3

    Look how divided the borough was:

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Redbridge_London_UK_local_election_2014_map.svg
    Interesting. I expect the Tories will lose a few seats.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    AndyJS said:

    8% swing from Lab to Con in Finchley Church End.

    https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992282374619545600

    I think that makes Barnet a Con HOLD.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Jonathan said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.
    Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.

    The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.

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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,473
    daodao said:

    DavidL said:

    daodao said:

    DavidL said:

    The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.

    IMO, Trafford is the best result.
    I can see why you would think that. The Tories losing their last Council in the North West is a blow to them. It also counters the Labour are only doing well in London meme. But you must be disappointed that so many relatively easy targets have slipped away.
    Trafford is my local council, and the Tory administration has been poor.
    Trafford is my local council, and I can't for the life of me see how the administration is any worse than any of GM's labour councils. The lowest council tax rates and the best schools in the north west. Bin collections and planning issues no worse than anywhere else. My local labour councillor is a moron of the first order - it is terrifying to think of her anywhere near the levers of power.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,514
    Oh Lordy does this mean my Barnet tip(s) are winners ?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    No surprises. The country split. Corbyn Labour never going to beat the Tories, who will govern in perpituity for as long as they face an opposition run by the far left.

    But it is clear the tories cannot win big even against Corbyn, and that has led to much trouble. Something has to give at some point.
    It's clear Theresa May can't win big against Corbyn.

    However, both are getting on and not likely to be around in four years. When Corbyn goes he will be replaced by another left-winger because like the Republicans, or the Tories under Hague, the Labour membership are more obsessed with personal ideological purity than with power or competence or even sanity. The Tories, if they are still in power, are likely to go for an experienced centrist. Therefore, although nothing can be taken as read, the odds of them turning this around by making voters unafraid not to vote Labour and splitting the anti-Tory vote must be better than that of Labour peeling off votes from the Tories - which is their only route to winning power.

    On topic, the Liberal Democrats will be pretty happy, so will the Conservatives. I've got to say, dud expectations management that even Nick Timothy would blench at aside, this is a pretty dismal performance from Labour. Not doing well outside London is one thing, but losing seats within it is pathetic given the open goal they were offered. They are once again piling up core votes in their safest areas. Not even preaching to the choir, they're preaching to the ordinands.

    If they are serious about ever winning power, they have a hell of lot of work to do, and I think it must start with a cull of the lightweight morons loosely called the Shadow Cabinet.
    Unless labour pick McDonnell, whoever they pick, better or worse, won't have as much baggage as Corbyn of course.
    But will they have the same personal appeal and skill at campaigning?

    I can't see such a person.

    Possibly not, but of the tories decline a bit, that won't matter so much.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    TGOHF said:
    In fairness, that happened under Miliband as well. Who can forget Balls spending time on a futile campaign in Sheffield Hallam only to lose his own seat?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    "Kevin Schofield
    ‏Verified account @PolhomeEditor

    Furious Labour source: "Hundreds of activists were sent to campaign in the wrong places just to feed the outsized egos of a few pied pipers on Twitter. It can’t be allowed to happen again.”"


    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/992282804598669314
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856
    AndyJS said:
    But it has before and so will again.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,332
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.

    Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.
    Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.

    The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.

    Labour need both wings of the party to win. Corbyn needs to reach out to the right of Labour so that it might be competitive in seats like Nuneaton. Is he clever enough to do that?

    Super serving the left is a now a proven dead end.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories gain a seat from Labour in Barnet, Brunswick Park, and cling on to another by 7 votes:

    https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992283775294820354
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421

    Jonathan said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.
    Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.

    The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.

    “More in synch with the electorate”, “given us electoral returns”..

    Lol.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    edited May 2018

    Jonathan said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    You are super serving part of the core vote. Winning elections is about getting enough people to vote for you, not delighting a minority.
    Which is part of the journey Labour has undertaken, expanding its voting base under Corbyn. Not popular for some on the right of the party who want their interests served but more in sync with the electorate. It has been made difficult by those who aren't having their interests served but we can't abandon a project which has given us electoral returns so far because small groups are unhappy about the direction.

    The core vote mostly did turn out but it is Corbyn who seems to have been a big motivator in bringing in other votes, the idea that binning him and going to a more Blairite approach would work is false IMO.

    I would partially agree with that. However, there is a limit to how far that can work given he also drives a large chunk of the floating vote into the arms of your chief opponents. Uniting the vote of the opposition is only a feasible path to power if that vote can overtop the Conservatives and at the moment it can't.

    You might almost be better off therefore with a centrist candidate that peels people off from the Conservatives even if that causes the protest vote to go elsewhere.

    That said, I appreciate there is a distinct shortage of good centrist candidates - that further said, the left is if anything even worse.
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    kle4 said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.
    Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.

    Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,421
    I wonder if the Absolute Boy will be visiting Barnet later today?

    *innocent face*
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Tories win Barnet.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Oh Lordy does this mean my Barnet tip(s) are winners ?

    Tories now 99% likely to increase their majority...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,856

    kle4 said:

    I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.

    It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.

    For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.

    I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.
    Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.

    Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
    Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    DavidL said:
    I was about to say, that all sounds very familiar.

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,314
    edited May 2018

    I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.

    Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.

    In 2003 there was a famous headline after similarly 'meh' council elections that the Tories 'should not confuse relief with joy.'

    These results are less impressive for Labour than those were for the Conservatives. At the moment, they are not a party on the path to power.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories clocking up the gains in Barnet. There's a tie in the final seat.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TGOHF said:
    To recall a recent thread discussion, Jews have friends, colleagues, and neighbours.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,983
    ydoethur said:

    I think Labour will be disappointed overall. Plymouth which they are heralding as a success stems from the loss of the UKIP seats won last time around, and the PB // Polling Matters podcast called this for Labour well in advance. Conversely across the midlands Tories have picked up seats where UKIP have fallen back.

    Labour don't seem to have delivered the votes or councils across a large number of targets including A lot of London, but also places like Walsall which was being talked up on Radio 4 earlier in the week. I think it partly down to expectations management being poor, and partly down to motivation to vote, both which stem from the style of Corbyn support. The party now has such enthusiastic supporters, that they over estimate support, and the other is motivation to vote, which is more patchy for labour. Undoubtedly Labour supporters and voters are more enthused to vote for Corbyn. Unfortunately for Labour he also seems to motivate all other voters to coalesce around the conservatives in order to vote against him.

    In 2003 there was a famous headline after similarly 'meh' council elections that the Tories 'should not confuse relief with joy.'

    These results are less impressive for Labour than those were for the Conservatives. At the moment, they are not a party on the path to power.
    Factoid of the day. The Tories gained in 13 consecutive sets of local elections leading up to 2010.
This discussion has been closed.