One wonders if the antisemitism row hurt Labour more than expected, not just in the more Jewish areas of London.
Story of the night could be that Labour didn't sort out their antisemitism problem, whereas the Tories did sort out their Windrush problem to a certain extent with Amber Rudd falling on her sword to be replaced by Sajid Javid.
Feels like the earlier ‘excitement’ of the night has kind of fizzled out now.
Looks like Labour underperformed in comparison to the polls, a reversal of year ago. Another reminder after 2017 to be a bit sceptical of polls.
What polls? The national opinion polls currently have the Tories ahead by 1% compared to a Labour lead of 3% four years ago.
The polls that showed Labour doing massively well in London.
Yes I think those big leads reported in at least 2 London polls have not been reflected in the results. Labour are well ahead in the capital but tonight suggests they are at or near their peak for the moment.
Feels like the earlier ‘excitement’ of the night has kind of fizzled out now.
Looks like Labour underperformed in comparison to the polls, a reversal of year ago. Another reminder after 2017 to be a bit sceptical of polls.
What polls? The national opinion polls currently have the Tories ahead by 1% compared to a Labour lead of 3% four years ago.
The polls that showed Labour doing massively well in London.
Those polls could still be right because we've only had a small number of London boroughs declaring so far. I would expect big swings to Labour in places like Croydon, Greenwich, Brent, etc.
The Labour targets in London — Wandsworth, Westminster, Hillingdon, Barnet — could easily turn out to be unrepresentative of most of London. In a way that's why they were the Lab targets because most of London is obviously more pro-Labour than those boroughs. It was always a bad idea to apply the London-wide opinion polls to those four councils in my opinion.
AndyJS: that is weird if the Tories are currently up 10 seats in London, Lab up only 3 and the LDs down 11. I hope the Guardian have that right but it’s counterintuitive! Early days of course.
YouGov’s London local elections poll, a week or two back, put voting intention at 51/29; it will be interesting to see what the final tally ends up as. A 1% swing to Labour, which we have seen in early results, would take us to more like 44/29 if the 2014 Wiki figures are right.
AndyJS: that is weird if the Tories are currently up 10 seats in London, Lab up only 3 and the LDs down 11. I hope the Guardian have that right but it’s counterintuitive! Early days of course.
YouGov’s London local elections poll put voting intention at 51/29; it will be interesting to see what the final tally ends up as. A 1% swing to Labour, which we have seen in early results, would take us to more like 44/29 if the 2014 Wiki figures are right.
I wondered about that but it could be Labour piling up votes in their safe areas I suppose.
AndyJS: that is weird if the Tories are currently up 10 seats in London, Lab up only 3 and the LDs down 11. I hope the Guardian have that right but it’s counterintuitive! Early days of course.
YouGov’s London local elections poll put voting intention at 51/29; it will be interesting to see what the final tally ends up as. A 1% swing to Labour, which we have seen in early results, would take us to more like 44/29 if the 2014 Wiki figures are right.
It is counterintuitive. But on the other hand the Tories have won seats from Labour in Westminster, Hillingdon, and Merton of all places.
AndyJS: that is weird if the Tories are currently up 10 seats in London, Lab up only 3 and the LDs down 11. I hope the Guardian have that right but it’s counterintuitive! Early days of course.
YouGov’s London local elections poll put voting intention at 51/29; it will be interesting to see what the final tally ends up as. A 1% swing to Labour, which we have seen in early results, would take us to more like 44/29 if the 2014 Wiki figures are right.
It is counterintuitive. But on the other hand the Tories have won seats from Labour in Westminster, Hillingdon, and Merton of all places.
Sorry, but these are franky pathetic results for labour across England during the midterm of a party that has been in power for 8 years.
Feels like the earlier ‘excitement’ of the night has kind of fizzled out now.
Looks like Labour underperformed in comparison to the polls, a reversal of year ago. Another reminder after 2017 to be a bit sceptical of polls.
It was notable how much expectations management Labour did last year, when they were facing a bad time, and did quite well in that management. This year the expectations could not be tempered anywhere near as much, so even some great gains will not feel as significant.
Feels like the earlier ‘excitement’ of the night has kind of fizzled out now.
Looks like Labour underperformed in comparison to the polls, a reversal of year ago. Another reminder after 2017 to be a bit sceptical of polls.
It was notable how much expectations management Labour did last year, when they were facing a bad time, and did quite well in that management. This year the expectations could not be tempered anywhere near as much, so even some great gains will not feel as significant.
Remember Len McCluskey setting Corbyn a target of 200 seats? How I chuckled. “Bit ambitious, Len!”.
I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
Tim Donovon looks very upset that labour haven't taken wandsworth
He rather gave it away early in the evening when he talked about how many seats "we" would win, before correcting himself to how many Labour would win - an astonishing lapse for a BBC correspondent.
I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
No elections in Cornwall this year!
Is Cornwall now the biggest council in the realm? Birmingham down to a puny 100 councillors.
Results seem to be a mixed bag but gaining overall on what was a decent set of results at the time and with a lot of UKIP voters up for grabs doesn't seem too bad.
Results seem to be a mixed bag but gaining overall on what was a decent set of results at the time and with a lot of UKIP voters up for grabs doesn't seem too bad.
Johnny Mercer says Tories must do better on defence issues, that's why they lost out in Plymouth. Perhaps he fancies a turn at defence secretary himself?
In places like SW London, Cheadle and Hazel Grove they are reestablishing the ground presence needed for them to challenge for the parliamentary seats.
Johnny Mercer says Tories must do better on defence issues, that's why they lost out in Plymouth. Perhaps he fancies a turn at defence secretary himself?
Maybe "doing more with less" was not too popular in Plymouth.
because they thought they would build on the very good 2017 result and because they thought the gains they were making with non Jews would offset loses with Jews.
The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.
The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.
I'll be interested to see the NEV shares, but my view is that these are good results for both the LDs and the Conservative Parties.
In the LD case, they're likely to have added 2 councils (Richmond, Kingston) and 50-60 councillors. Now, they're not back at 2010 levels, but these are probably the best local election results since.
The Conservative Party has not suffered a meltdown in London, and have done well outside.
And the Labour Party has had a pretty poor evening.
The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.
The results so far seem pretty much in line with the national polling. Tories doing fractionally better outside London, Labour doing fractionally better in it, the Lib Dem’s still not really recovering although Richmond is a very good result for them and UKIP all but dead. I think May can be pretty happy with this. The worst result seems to be Trafford.
And no, the results are not in line with national polling.
The LDs are down c. 4% in national poll share since 2014, while the Conservatives and Labour are up. Now, there was a lot of Remainia voting yesterday, but I didn't expect the LDs to be leading the seat gain total, and nor, I suspect, did anyone else.
Comments
Looks like Labour underperformed in comparison to the polls, a reversal of year ago. Another reminder after 2017 to be a bit sceptical of polls.
"Here are the latest figures for London.
Conservatives:
Councils: 1
Seats: 76 (+10)
Labour:
Councils: 2
Seats: 118 (+3)
Lib Dems:
Councils: 1
Seats: 33 (-11)"
The Labour targets in London — Wandsworth, Westminster, Hillingdon, Barnet — could easily turn out to be unrepresentative of most of London. In a way that's why they were the Lab targets because most of London is obviously more pro-Labour than those boroughs. It was always a bad idea to apply the London-wide opinion polls to those four councils in my opinion.
YouGov’s London local elections poll, a week or two back, put voting intention at 51/29; it will be interesting to see what the final tally ends up as. A 1% swing to Labour, which we have seen in early results, would take us to more like 44/29 if the 2014 Wiki figures are right.
https://twitter.com/nickieaiken?lang=en
This is why we love politics.
https://twitter.com/RBKC
https://governance.enfield.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=200&RPID=67046723
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/6/
This will give Theresa a mild boost.
I don't know; it all seems a bit flat somehow. Unless you count the number of bin collections in Redruth, there are no great issues at stake unlike the general elections and referendum in the last three years. Or perhaps it is that I have no bets riding on the outcome: yes, that could be it.
https://twitter.com/barnetcouncil?lang=en
LibDem 39
Con 11
Green 4
Big swing to LibDem
Edit: For Labour that is.
2014 Con/LD 62%/20%
2018 Con/LD 55%/43%
15% swing from Con to LibDem
Does anyone know what's happening in Kingston Upon Thames?
Corbyn surge...look at Twitter, why aren't BBC reporting about voting in elections today. Have some eggs hit some faces this morning?
In places like SW London, Cheadle and Hazel Grove they are reestablishing the ground presence needed for them to challenge for the parliamentary seats.
The Jewish vote is some 500 odd, Tories were around 300 behind.
The Jewish vote is some 500 odd, Tories were around 300 behind.
In the LD case, they're likely to have added 2 councils (Richmond, Kingston) and 50-60 councillors. Now, they're not back at 2010 levels, but these are probably the best local election results since.
The Conservative Party has not suffered a meltdown in London, and have done well outside.
And the Labour Party has had a pretty poor evening.
The LDs are down c. 4% in national poll share since 2014, while the Conservatives and Labour are up. Now, there was a lot of Remainia voting yesterday, but I didn't expect the LDs to be leading the seat gain total, and nor, I suspect, did anyone else.
Con: 2196, 2155, 2130
Lab: 2078, 2074, 2014
Greens: 299
LD: 264, 238, 184
West Hendon, 2014:
Lab: 1794, 1769, 1747
Con: 1488, 1459, 1357
UKIP: 445
Greens: 307, 300, 292
LD: 172, 163, 163