F1: just a side note, for those who want a tiny break from the naturally significant election coverage, but Vettel's favourite for the title. That's interesting because he's behind Hamilton now. Last year, for a long time when he was ahead (maybe all the time) I'm not sure that happened. It certainly suggests the market thinks Hamilton's lost his edge.
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.
As will the Tories.
NOC will be the winner. Which means Corbyn is PM with C&S from the Nats.
Time to dust off those 'in the pockets of......' posters
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point..
It’s not just “lovely “ it’s absolutely vital that the left and right bury the hatchet. For me the onus is on the leader. Corbyn needs to reach out to Cooper and a couple of others. Cooper as shadow Chancellor would create a more balanced ticket. Corbyn cannot reach all the voters he needs.
Corbyn won’t do that,his tribe is content to have won the party. But that is what it will take for Labour to break out of the deadlock and win the country. There are votes to the right of Labour than to the left.
Cooper has already said she won't serve in his Cabinet? I think the Chancellor has to be an ally of the leader. Otherwise I'd agree with reaching out to those in all wings of the party. The issue I think is that many would refuse to work for Corbyn.
Corbyn could make concessions, I doubt she would refuse the sCofE and freedom. He can unlock this.
It all depend on whether he wants to win or not. Easier to go down as a heroic failure with the faithful than to compromise with others.
Morning all, I deliberately didn't pick a betting side this election as I wasn't sure how it was going to go. The blues and the yellows however have achieved what they needed to in Sutton and Wandsworth.
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
I've read that comment from Prof Curtice several times and I still don't understand it. I can't see how Labour are doing better than at last year's general election except in a small number of places like Plymouth and Trafford. Prof Curtice himself said on the BBC's election show that Labour wouldn't have won Battersea which they gained in 2017.
There was a swing to the Tories in Plymouth, compared to 2017 (they finished just ahead of Labour in vote share).
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
Being deadlocked means Labour will lose the next general election.
As will the Tories.
NOC will be the winner. Which means Corbyn is PM with C&S from the Nats.
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point..
It’s not just “lovely “ it’s absolutely vital that the left and right bury the hatchet. For me the onus is on the leader. Corbyn needs to reach out to Cooper and a couple of others. Cooper as shadow Chancellor would create a more balanced ticket. Corbyn cannot reach all the voters he needs.
Corbyn won’t do that,his tribe is content to have won the party. But that is what it will take for Labour to break out of the deadlock and win the country. There are votes to the right of Labour than to the left.
Cooper has already said she won't serve in his Cabinet? I think the Chancellor has to be an ally of the leader. Otherwise I'd agree with reaching out to those in all wings of the party. The issue I think is that many would refuse to work for Corbyn.
Corbyn could make concessions, I doubt she would refuse the sCofE and freedom. He can unlock this.
It all depend on whether he wants to win or not. Easier to go down as a heroic failure with the faithful than to compromise with others.
Isn't his main goal that the hard left have a grip on the party and its mechanisms at all levels?
F1: gossip on the BBC suggests Perez might replace Raikkonen. Whilst this has been muttered about before, they'd be better off going for Ocon, in my opinion.
I think he means that the DUP might have the balance of power permanently at this rate.
Also (although I suspect he won't say he meant this) it is obvious that the Leave vote is holding up Tory support. If they sell out on Brexit they will get wiped out at the next election. Since the DUP are pretty much the only party in parliament which actually supports the referendum result these days, maybe they should stand in Britain and hoover up all the protest votes that UKIP used to get.....
The needing both wings things sounds lovely but I'm not sure it is all that true, Blair just needed the lefts votes and as time went on not even that so much. The left wing does somewhat need the right wing and that is why there has been some compromise but the right has to accept that the left will be leading for the moment. As much as anything that seems to have been a sticking point..
It’s not just “lovely “ it’s absolutely vital that the left and right bury the hatchet. For me the onus is on the leader. Corbyn needs to reach out to Cooper and a couple of others. Cooper as shadow Chancellor would create a more balanced ticket. Corbyn cannot reach all the voters he needs.
Corbyn won’t do that,his tribe is content to have won the party. But that is what it will take for Labour to break out of the deadlock and win the country. There are votes to the right of Labour than to the left.
Cooper has already said she won't serve in his Cabinet? I think the Chancellor has to be an ally of the leader. Otherwise I'd agree with reaching out to those in all wings of the party. The issue I think is that many would refuse to work for Corbyn.
Corbyn could make concessions, I doubt she would refuse the sCofE and freedom. He can unlock this.
It all depend on whether he wants to win or not. Easier to go down as a heroic failure with the faithful than to compromise with others.
Corbyn won’t be going anywhere. I doubt members will be swayed against him by these results. They weren’t swayed against him by previous poor local election results.
Look at the national result. We’re on for yet another minority Tory government at the next GE.
so you say, but there's a long way to go, and since no-one knows the final seat numbers of the next GE a forecast of the make up of the next govt is a brave call at this stage.
I think he means that the DUP might have the balance of power permanently at this rate.
Also (although I suspect he won't say he meant this) it is obvious that the Leave vote is holding up Tory support. If they sell out on Brexit they will get wiped out at the next election. Since the DUP are pretty much the only party in parliament which actually supports the referendum result these days, maybe they should stand in Britain and hoover up all the protest votes that UKIP used to get.....
lol
I know exactly what SO means, but he's just having a scare the voters with the bogeymen moment. It seems to escape labourites that their own party put SInn Fein \ DUP in the position they are today by caving in to extremists and crapping on the moderates.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I realise the Corbyn must resign idea is a popular one after each and every election... or referendum... but it doesn't really have much effect anymore.
It is said by much the same people who said it before, as they were ignored and turned out to be wrong in some of their assumptions then I don't see why they should be listened too now regardless of how right they think they are.
For a lot of people on here a left wing Labour party is toxic, for a lot of people in the country it is exactly what they've been waiting for. After being disenfranchised for years I don't think a 'slightly disappointing' local election result is going to make people despair after all the progress made in the last few years.
I certainly take your point about the Corbyn must resign thing, but I take issue with the too often used 'disenfranchised' to describe the situation the far left feel. They were not. They had the opportunity to vote for far leftists up and down the country, or stand themselves. That Labour were offering sonething more middle ground didn't disenfranchise anyone.
Well no more than you get centrists or Blairites complaining now about the same but if you prefer different wording I am fine with that. I can understand the wording as if your ideas are locked out of both main parties then they take very little effect.
Although I suppose there are counter arguments regarding UKIP and then to a lesser extent the Greens have seen their issues adopted, although a far slower process!
Certainly centrists aren't disenfranchised either. They have options if they cannot support the current direction of the party.
Like what? There is nowhere to go. Lib Dem’s dead, still tarnished by coalition. Tories heading right, drunk on Brexit.
They can form a new party then. The point was they have a vote, and that they don't like the options doesn't change that.
Forming a new party? You might as well give up on politics altogether under FPTP. Labour needs centrists to win. Always has, always will. Corbyn and co need to wake up to that.
And none of that has anything to do with disenfranchisement, which was the point. You're not being starved if you're offered 3 meals you don't like, and it might be hard and unrewarding but you can try making a meal yourself. Or more likely, suck it up and eat it.
A system that requires voters to “suck it up” is not fit for purpose.
Corbyn won’t be going anywhere. I doubt members will be swayed against him by these results. They weren’t swayed against him by previous poor local election results.
It is tradition to call for Corbyn to go anytime people vote though. If we had the AV referendum now people would call for Corbyn to go after the results, regardless of which side he campaigned for or which side won.
Corbyn won’t be going anywhere. I doubt members will be swayed against him by these results. They weren’t swayed against him by previous poor local election results.
It is tradition to call for Corbyn to go anytime people vote though. If we had the AV referendum now people would call for Corbyn to go after the results, regardless of which side he campaigned for or which side won.
is it because he would pretend to be in team "no" whilst obviously being in team "yes" and no doubt voting "yes" in the secrecy of the ballot box because he's supported "yes" solidly for forty years/
Although these results are not particularly good for Labour, they are better, relatively speaking, than they were in the general election last year. So you certainly can’t argue that the Labour party has not made any progress as compared with last year’s general election [where the Tories were ahead]. But, on the other hand, you can’t necessarily argue the Labour party is in a stronger position than they were in the 2016 local elections as well as the 2014 local elections [in both of which Labour ended up ahead].
Compared with forecasts:
1. Labour is obviously underperforming in London compared with the forecasts of enthusiasts - in particular the idea that huge numbers of canvassers will swing a strongly Tory borough has been largely disproved.
2. The Conservatives also fell short of the predictions that they'd do very well outside London. There are patchy successes (Nuneaton and Derby) and failures (Plymouth and Trafford)
Overall, unless the remaining results show any real surprises, it looks consistent with the polls, showing the parties deadlocked.
I've read that comment from Prof Curtice several times and I still don't understand it. I can't see how Labour are doing better than at last year's general election except in a small number of places like Plymouth and Trafford. Prof Curtice himself said on the BBC's election show that Labour wouldn't have won Battersea which they gained in 2017.
Suspect he means that Labour will be slightly ahead on the national equivalent vote, as opposed to being slightly behind at the GE
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
These results are pretty rubbish for every party. I expect no party will take the opportunity to reflect properly on what went wrong for them.
On the contrary, none of the parties had a bloodbath so that will no doubt be taken as a sign to carry on regardless
You can see that already on pb with the irrational exuberance of the Conservative supporters. Yet the national projections show the Conservatives going backwards from last year.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.
These results are pretty rubbish for every party. I expect no party will take the opportunity to reflect properly on what went wrong for them.
chortle
well since Remainers cant do that, why should the political parties ? Mostly it's the same people.
Not sure why you are spinning these results as anti-Remain - there hasn’t been a surge of votes switching from UKIP to the Conservatives as you would expect if Brexit were popular.
These results are pretty rubbish for every party. I expect no party will take the opportunity to reflect properly on what went wrong for them.
On the contrary, none of the parties had a bloodbath so that will no doubt be taken as a sign to carry on regardless
You can see that already on pb with the irrational exuberance of the Conservative supporters. Yet the national projections show the Conservatives going backwards from last year.
As you well know voting patterns are different in local elections to those in general elections.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.
Sigh... are you still banging on about this? It’s a secured loan. If the loan isn’t paid, the lender has security.
Maybe just maybe the tories have done well during mid term local elections as there is basically full employment in this Country. Quite an astounding achievement for what is always refered to on here as a totally incompetent government.
Corbyn won’t be going anywhere. I doubt members will be swayed against him by these results. They weren’t swayed against him by previous poor local election results.
It is tradition to call for Corbyn to go anytime people vote though. If we had the AV referendum now people would call for Corbyn to go after the results, regardless of which side he campaigned for or which side won.
is it because he would pretend to be in team "no" whilst obviously being in team "yes" and no doubt voting "yes" in the secrecy of the ballot box because he's supported "yes" solidly for forty years/
No, it is because they don't want him in charge of the party so look for excuses to replace him.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
These results are pretty rubbish for every party. I expect no party will take the opportunity to reflect properly on what went wrong for them.
On the contrary, none of the parties had a bloodbath so that will no doubt be taken as a sign to carry on regardless
You can see that already on pb with the irrational exuberance of the Conservative supporters. Yet the national projections show the Conservatives going backwards from last year.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.
Sigh... are you still banging on about this? It’s a secured loan. If the loan isn’t paid, the lender has security.
Which is why they're fully entitled to reposses the property and should do so.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.
Sigh... are you still banging on about this? It’s a secured loan. If the loan isn’t paid, the lender has security.
Which is why they're fully entitled to reposses the property and should do so.
Yes, and that is a feature of a secured loan, not a bug. Neither party is in the wrong.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
After today, with how wrong those London polls were I’m not going to be paying too much attention to polls.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
That’s pretty much my take on them too.
The story before last night was that labour would have great success in London and I expected the conservatives to lose councils but it has not happened, and this is the heavy remain London.
The results for a government who have come under 24/7 attack from the media over Brexit, Windrush, the NHS and austerity are pleasantly satisfactory at this stage of the cycle.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
Why ? Only Euronutters - pro and anti - will care. Everybody else is worried about the standard GE fare - cost of living, wages, housing, infrastructure, tax.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
Thre are a lot of voting blocks which Labour should continue to hold - the young, the poor, renters, public sector, champagne socialists.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
After today, with how wrong those London polls were I’m not going to be paying too much attention to polls.
Yes - yet another opinion polling fail (though the overall voting intention polls seem fairly accurate). Polling at any level more granular than UK-wide seems to be a waste of time.
OT cos I was out last night and couldn't respond to the post. Another Richard said to me 'Are you serious?' when I couldn't see anything wrong with interest only mortgages for a 75 year old. I think plenty of other people gave good responses, but thought I should reply. Also I did post my personal experience.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
I don't think you should borrow money and when the time comes to repay it don't do so.
I agree. I never suggested otherwise. I was not talking about the particular case of which I have no knowledge but your incredulity to 75 year olds being given interest only loans which on the face of it appears logical but is plainly nonsense in many many cases.
The nonsense is demonstrated with Equity Release which is just the same. These days in most schemes you retain 100% ownership, but with a charge on the property.
Now what would I call that. I would call that a mortgage? Wouldn't you? And I can get it interest only, what is more I can get it interest free (with the interest rolling up on the loan) so worse than you were complaining about.
I think one reason the Tories have reason to be happier is that in 2022 May won't be there and we won't have the same disaster policies.
2022 will effectively be a referendum on how the Brexit deal has turned out.
Possibly, at the same time Corbyn faced the worst Tory PM since Heath, the most unpopular policy ideas since the poll tax and he still didn't win. Take both of those our of the 2022 election and it means we've got a better chance of scraping a majority.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?
Only thing I can think of is UKIP if their leave voting coalition is really unhappy about BINO.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?
Why ? Only Euronutters - pro and anti - will care. Everybody else is worried about the standard GE fare - cost of living, wages, housing, infrastructure, tax.
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
After today, with how wrong those London polls were I’m not going to be paying too much attention to polls.
Yes - yet another opinion polling fail (though the overall voting intention polls seem fairly accurate). Polling at any level more granular than UK-wide seems to be a waste of time.
The London polls could still be right because there are lots of results still to be declared. The mistake was applying them to idiosyncratic councils like Wandsworth and Barnet.
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
That's some serious wishful thinking. Are you for real?!
The Conservatives should send Diane Abbott a big bouquet of flowers. Having her on TV so much recently has been worth thousands of votes to them.
The mystery is why Labour did badly in 2018 and 2015 but so well in 2017.
Labour did rubbish in the 2017 local elections as well.
But led on NEV in 2016.
Add that in, weird fluctuating results for Labour over the years which is odd.
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
No - before the GE the Tories were supposedly 20 points ahead in the poll. These results show that a GE tomorrow would probably yield another hung parliament.
Yet the mood music still feels very much like pre June 2017 - which was Corbyn can’t win, and the Tories (albeit with a different leader) are likely to win a majority against him. Of course, given how we have seen expectations upended in 2015, 2016 (EUref), 2017, and now in 2018, that expectation could also prove to be wrong in the coming years. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We’ll see. I doubt there will be any significant movement in the polls until the terms of the Brexit deal become clear.
After today, with how wrong those London polls were I’m not going to be paying too much attention to polls.
Yes - yet another opinion polling fail (though the overall voting intention polls seem fairly accurate). Polling at any level more granular than UK-wide seems to be a waste of time.
The London polls could still be right because there are lots of results still to be declared. The mistake was applying them to idiosyncratic councils like Wandsworth and Barnet.
Even if the London polls were right, UNS still had them failing to gain Wandsworth, Westminister, or Kensington
These results seem consistent with a deadlocked country. No particular party or position on Brexit is particularly popular.
This has been my impression for a while with the polls showing both parties on close to 40% for months now. My hope as a Labour supporter is Conservative support drifts away as Brexit has to be sorted one way or another and people are either satisfied and need another reason to vote Conservative or angry and won't vote Conservative. Whereas Labour support is harder to lose with decisions as we don't have to really have to make them thanks to being in opposition and easier to hold as many of the reasons will still exist, even anger over Brexit.
Where exactly is Conservative support going to drift away to?
We've had people on here making threats regarding various bits of Brexit being followed through on or they won't vote Tory. There are a section of people who it is a big deal to, it certainly seemed to be one of the big motivators in the Tory vote.
I think one reason the Tories have reason to be happier is that in 2022 May won't be there and we won't have the same disaster policies.
2022 will effectively be a referendum on how the Brexit deal has turned out.
Possibly, at the same time Corbyn faced the worst Tory PM since Heath, the most unpopular policy ideas since the poll tax and he still didn't win. Take both of those our of the 2022 election and it means we've got a better chance of scraping a majority.
Depends on who the new leader is. A Rees Mogg or Johnson would keep the Labour vote solid.
Why ? Only Euronutters - pro and anti - will care. Everybody else is worried about the standard GE fare - cost of living, wages, housing, infrastructure, tax.
All of those are directly affected by Brexit
Only in the Euronutter mind. They are directly affected by our own government policy and spending.
I hope that everyone heard the revelation by Brandon Lewis on the Today programme that he, Tessy and the government have been very, VERY clear on loads of stuff.
Owen also took his “unseat” campaign to Swindon, which the Tories held, Hillingdon, where the Tories increased their majority, and Portsmouth, where Labour failed to gain from NOC. Owen had planned an event in Plymouth but cancelled it. Plymouth is the only council Labour gained last night.
I think one reason the Tories have reason to be happier is that in 2022 May won't be there and we won't have the same disaster policies.
2022 will effectively be a referendum on how the Brexit deal has turned out.
Possibly, at the same time Corbyn faced the worst Tory PM since Heath, the most unpopular policy ideas since the poll tax and he still didn't win. Take both of those our of the 2022 election and it means we've got a better chance of scraping a majority.
Depends on who the new leader is. A Rees Mogg or Johnson would keep the Labour vote solid.
Neither stand a chance though, it's more likely to be someone like Javid or Hunt.
If I were a Labour member then I wouldn't be counting on that to do well in 2022.
Comments
They didn't win West Tyrone
or are you just having an early morning troll ?
It all depend on whether he wants to win or not. Easier to go down as a heroic failure with the faithful than to compromise with others.
A fine mess.
http://camden.gov.uk/ccm/content/council-and-democracy/elections-and-voting/2010-elections/twocolumn/local-council-elections-2018-results/
“No big shocks.”
Also (although I suspect he won't say he meant this) it is obvious that the Leave vote is holding up Tory support. If they sell out on Brexit they will get wiped out at the next election. Since the DUP are pretty much the only party in parliament which actually supports the referendum result these days, maybe they should stand in Britain and hoover up all the protest votes that UKIP used to get.....
Corbyn's gotta go.....
"Corbyn could make concessions"
And the Tories could win Liverpool.
And the other problem is he has no heir.
I'll get my coat. Have a good morning.
So coming from him a good night for the conservatives
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/992300831897673729
https://twitter.com/BarnetCouncil/status/992300482717667328
I know exactly what SO means, but he's just having a scare the voters with the bogeymen moment. It seems to escape labourites that their own party put SInn Fein \ DUP in the position they are today by caving in to extremists and crapping on the moderates.
They're simply reaping what they've sown.
There should not be a 'jobs worth' rule to these things. Banks are supposed to be able to make business decisions and not just blindly apply rules. In my case I have capital in the low millions and wanted a loan in the low hundreds of thousands. 75% of which would be tied up in 2 houses worth in excess of £2m. I would pay it off in a few years from other capital assets I also have, but which I don't have access to yet.
So Another Richard you think I shouldn't be given an interest only loan. Why on earth not? It is profitable for the bank and there is no risk (there would have to be a crash so monumental that the economy would disintegrate for it not to be repayable). I'm much safer than someone dependent upon their job (I don't have one, I'm retired).
Yet I am offered an interest free loan or repayment mortgage for only a handful of years because I am so close to the arbitrary cut off age. Useless jobs worth stuff. Because the term was so short the monthly repayments of capital were just silly.
In answer to Benpointer -Yes you are right Equity Release is the only answer and that is the rub as it is effectively loan. It is no different. It is bizarre as it is effectively the same thing and I can even waive the interest payments which I can't do with a mortgage so effectively riskier than what Another Richard is complaining about. All bonkers.
Of course the downside to Equity Release is more cumbersome and expensive.
So what is your problem with me having that interest only loan Another Richard?
Looks like we are back to the mood music pre June 2017 then, for the moment at least.
well since Remainers cant do that, why should the political parties ? Mostly it's the same people.
https://www.redbridge.gov.uk/voting-and-elections/election-results/
The results for a government who have come under 24/7 attack from the media over Brexit, Windrush, the NHS and austerity are pleasantly satisfactory at this stage of the cycle.
The nonsense is demonstrated with Equity Release which is just the same. These days in most schemes you retain 100% ownership, but with a charge on the property.
Now what would I call that. I would call that a mortgage? Wouldn't you? And I can get it interest only, what is more I can get it interest free (with the interest rolling up on the loan) so worse than you were complaining about.
Do you want to ban those as well?
Though I hae ma doots ma self.
Newcastle-under-Lyme - newly all-up - should be an interesting one
https://order-order.com/2018/05/04/humiliation-owen-jones-unseat-tories-vanity-campaign/
If I were a Labour member then I wouldn't be counting on that to do well in 2022.