politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight the results from what looks like the final major elect
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Getting this in before we get the full results: Big swings in several Sunderland and Nuneaton wards are a salient reminder of how a modest national or regional swing can be much bigger in places - and we shouldn't be too confident that councils will change hands in 'the right order'. Could Labour win Wandsworth but not Barnet? Probably not, but it's not as impossible as we sometimes think when looking at the previous results. Could Labour win somewhere like Westminster? Again, probably not - but we are probably too quick to rule out sizeable swings.0
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The Swindon results are the most interesting that I'm waiting for. The type of area that is trending Labour and that Labour need to be making progress in, to win a majority. Also an area where the Brexit result was similar to the national share.0
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AndreaParma_82 said:
Recount in Astley & Buckshaw (Chorley) where Labour won by 10 points over Con in 2014
Labour hold in the end. By 30 votes
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In my experience, wages are pretty similar now - London, Manchester and Birmingham. Its a no brainer to move out of London.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.0 -
There is a Leave/Remain divide in every effing aspect of this country I don't see why local elections should be any different.The_Apocalypse said:Curtice (BBC website) saying that we might have signs from these early results that Labour aren’t going to perform that strongly in heavy Leave places. Will be interesting to see if there is a Leave/Remain divide in the results.
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These local elections are strong for the Tories so far - looking like a continuation of LE17 rather than GE17.0
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The councils declaring now don't have 3-vacancy elections; they're election-by-thirds.Pulpstar said:
Yeah buttlg86 said:
Shouldn’t take that long to count a few thousand votes.The_Apocalypse said:I didn’t think we’d be getting results this early.
The GE doesn't have 3 member wards.
Not everyone votes LD LD LD or LAB LAB LAB0 -
I remember having this argument with Alastair a year ago. London's great, but only the super-rich can afford to live a good life there. If you're young and on a good salary, you can live in a nice house in the choicest bits of any other big city - Didsbury, Gosforth, Calderstones, West Bridgford, Roundhay, Crosspool - for what you would pay for a two-bedroomed flat in Rotherhithe or Leyton. London is great, but not ath that price.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.0 -
Shame those LEAVE places didn't swing heavily for CON in 2017. Theresa would've had a decent majority and Brexit wouldn't be in peril...The_Apocalypse said:Curtice (BBC website) saying that we might have signs from these early results that Labour aren’t going to perform that strongly in heavy Leave places. Will be interesting to see if there is a Leave/Remain divide in the results.
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Hendon Ward (Sunderland) results - from Twitter so might not be bang on?
Barbara MccLennan - Labour and Co-operative Party 1,029
Syed Ali - Conservative Party 421
Kris Brown - The North East Party 342
Richard Bradley - Green Party 239
Anthony Usher - Liberal Democrat 134
Decent first effort from our candidate, shame we didn't clinch 2nd place.0 -
Who are these Liberal Democrat people?nunuone said:0 -
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Millfield (Sunderland) : LD gain from Labour. It was 4% maj in 20140
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Hadn't realised that you've been elevated from district to county councillor! Hereditary dukedom is just one more step up, surely?JohnO said:
Hi Rob, No, but my ward (Hersham Village) is an ultra marginal and we’ve thrown everything into the campaign. The count is tomorrow morning. My term at Surrey CC ends in 2021.RobD said:Is JohnO standing again this year? I think his council is up (although maybe not his ward).
Good luck with the count tonight!0 -
Bloody hell.nunuone said:0 -
I'd want to have confirmation of that result.nunuone said:0 -
Apparently that area is very Brexity.FrancisUrquhart said:
Who are these Liberal Democrat people?nunuone said:
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/992168265232343041?s=20
Looks like Leave areas really don’t like Labour.0 -
Woah. Thats amazing.nunuone said:0 -
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Early days, but the Tories are slaughtering Labour in Northern towns. Wonder if this means Trafford won't switch after all, or is it sufficiently central to Manchester to be more 'London-esque'?
Unlike Manchester City Council, Trafford counts overnight.0 -
Oh my word. Look at that result from St. Helens. We're getting the sort of results you'd expect if the Tories were 20% up.0
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False news alert
Haydock (St Helens) result:
Lab: 46.4% (-13.6)
Grn: 38.5% (+33.5)
Con: 15.1% (+5.0)
No UKIP (-23.0)
(I am so sorry for the typo).0 -
Haydock is a Labour hold, BritainElects made a mistake.0
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For a moment I thought that we were in for an interesting night.The_Apocalypse said:Looks like it was a typo:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992175134910943233?s=200 -
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Strong performance by the Greens though.0
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Another one in Sunderland.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/9921757114682572820 -
Quite a lot of 20-somethings DO move to Manchester. We have the biggest university in the country, as well as a couple of others, and we have pretty high retention rates as well as pretty high rates of Mancunians choosing to come back home after going to university elsewhere. We're getting net inflows of 20-somethings.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
I ahree with your point - I'm surprised anybody in their 20s moves to London any more - but Manchester's doing all right on that score. Can't speak for the other cities in the north...0 -
I'm v.happy with 4-1 on a Lab win in Trafford.0
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An 88-yr old acquaintance of mine, whose face would appear, should you look up champagne socialist in the dictionary, and who has voted Lab since she was at Cambridge with Jack Ashley, voted Green and not Labour tonight for the first time in her life.RobD said:0 -
A disproportionate number of grad jobs are in the Great Wen. Costs are higher, but salaries and prospects are too.Cookie said:
I remember having this argument with Alastair a year ago. London's great, but only the super-rich can afford to live a good life there. If you're young and on a good salary, you can live in a nice house in the choicest bits of any other big city - Didsbury, Gosforth, Calderstones, West Bridgford, Roundhay, Crosspool - for what you would pay for a two-bedroomed flat in Rotherhithe or Leyton. London is great, but not ath that price.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.0 -
Does Spain not have 4G?0
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Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 2610 -
23% swing. Hope we see some like that in Newcastle-under-Lyme tomorrow.0
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Tory gain from Labour in the Slough ward of Nuneaton & Bedworth with big majority.
Con 1,232
Lab 6120 -
I'd thought London was a net importer of 20 somethings but an exporter of 30 somethings. Can't find the figures now, and now sure if Manchester is an importer of 20 somethings too.Cookie said:
Quite a lot of 20-somethings DO move to Manchester. We have the biggest university in the country, as well as a couple of others, and we have pretty high retention rates as well as pretty high rates of Mancunians choosing to come back home after going to university elsewhere. We're getting net inflows of 20-somethings.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
I ahree with your point - I'm surprised anybody in their 20s moves to London any more - but Manchester's doing all right on that score. Can't speak for the other cities in the north...0 -
Probably the story of the night -at least two thirds of the electorate did not vote-ITV0
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Cons appear to be doing very well in areas where they're still miles off winning. Which is, I suppose, nice news for them if not actually any bloody use.0
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If you work in the City.....TOPPING said:
Yebbut as @MaxPB has shown, working hard in London, moreso than any other UK city, can get you very tangible benefits indeed.Cyclefree said:
In reality, the bright lights involve working round the clock in order to live in some crummy rental place and not have much left over at the end of the month. Or, if you have parents in London, live at home. Other cities provide a better lifestyle and the hope of a realistic independence.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
But you’re still a hamster on a wheel, albeit it’s a very gilded wheel. If you have a large mortgage to pay for a flat in London, you are still a wage slave.
What you want - or should want - is the ability to acquire a large “Fuck Off” or “Running Away” Fund so that you are not trapped - as all too many London professionals are - in a cycle of having to work in high earning jobs in order to pay for the homes and school fees and higher transport (and every other sort of) costs and expensive holidays in order to cope with the stress of working every hour God sends etc etc.....0 -
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
Con gain Nuneaton / Poplar from Lab:
Con 906
Lab 8360 -
That old chestnut of the Ukip>Green swing...AndreaParma_82 said:Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 2610 -
2-3 tory gains in Wakefield looking good?david_herdson said:0 -
What a bizarre swing, from UKIP to Greens. Personal factors?AndreaParma_82 said:Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 2610 -
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.0
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Second declaration from St Helens
Thatto Heath
Lab: 68.6% (+7.3)
Con: 22.4% (+14.5)
UKIP: 8.9% (-10.7)0 -
If that's right its pretty amazing - its a ward Labour should only lose when they're 20% behind in the national polls.nunuone said:
There seem to be real shifts in electoral patterns.0 -
That and the Slough ward results are quite astounding swings - at any stage in an electoral cycle. What has been happening in Nuneaton?nunuone said:0 -
I think you've spelt NOTA as GreensAndreaParma_82 said:Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 261
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Happens across the world, not just perfidious paella eaters.tlg86 said:
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
None of the AboveNickPalmer said:
What a bizarre swing, from UKIP to Greens. Personal factors?AndreaParma_82 said:Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 2610 -
Most people struggle wherever they are. Bus drivers, solicitors, gardeners, investment bankers. A nice home, children with a good education, and nice holidays seems like a good payback.Cyclefree said:
If you work in the City.....TOPPING said:
Yebbut as @MaxPB has shown, working hard in London, moreso than any other UK city, can get you very tangible benefits indeed.Cyclefree said:
In reality, the bright lights involve working round the clock in order to live in some crummy rental place and not have much left over at the end of the month. Or, if you have parents in London, live at home. Other cities provide a better lifestyle and the hope of a realistic independence.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
But you’re still a hamster on a wheel, albeit it’s a very gilded wheel. If you have a large mortgage to pay for a flat in London, you are still a wage slave.
What you want - or should want - is the ability to acquire a large “Fuck Off” or “Running Away” Fund so that you are not trapped - as all too many London professionals are - in a cycle of having to work in high earning jobs in order to pay for the homes and school fees and higher transport (and every other sort of) costs and expensive holidays in order to cope with the stress of working every hour God sends etc etc.....0 -
Thats what I decided in 1990, and do not regret my decision. My yearmates who stayed in London are far richer, mostly because of house price inflation. Leics remains cheap.Cyclefree said:
If you work in the City.....TOPPING said:
Yebbut as @MaxPB has shown, working hard in London, moreso than any other UK city, can get you very tangible benefits indeed.Cyclefree said:
In reality, the bright lights involve working round the clock in order to live in some crummy rental place and not have much left over at the end of the month. Or, if you have parents in London, live at home. Other cities provide a better lifestyle and the hope of a realistic independence.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
But you’re still a hamster on a wheel, albeit it’s a very gilded wheel. If you have a large mortgage to pay for a flat in London, you are still a wage slave.
What you want - or should want - is the ability to acquire a large “Fuck Off” or “Running Away” Fund so that you are not trapped - as all too many London professionals are - in a cycle of having to work in high earning jobs in order to pay for the homes and school fees and higher transport (and every other sort of) costs and expensive holidays in order to cope with the stress of working every hour God sends etc etc.....0 -
http://www.itv.com/news/central/update/2016-06-24/nuneaton-and-bedworth-vote-to-leave/AndyJS said:Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.
Anywhere which is very Leave, Labour looks set to do badly.0 -
I'll always be fond of Nuneaton.Quincel said:
An absolute battering. Has anyone on PB.com mentioned Nuneaton once in all these threads we've had? I certainly didn't have it on my radar one bit!AndyJS said:Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.
It was the result in 2015 that made me think the Tory majority was on.0 -
There's a lot of people searching for a NOTA candidate. It helps if they don't know too much about them.NickPalmer said:
What a bizarre swing, from UKIP to Greens. Personal factors?AndreaParma_82 said:Beacon & Bents ward - South Tynside
2014
Lab 1254
UKIP 735
Con 367
LD 115
Today
Lab 1235
Greens 960
Con 2610 -
Do we do that to visitors?TheScreamingEagles said:
Happens across the world, not just perfidious paella eaters.tlg86 said:
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
Another Tory gain in Nuneaton:
Exhall:
Con 1,060
Lab 825
Ind 110
Green 67
TUSC 420 -
Sunderland
Con gain St Chads' from Lab
Lab gain Copt Hill from Ind0 -
Labour did pretty well in Nuneaton constituency in last year's GE:Quincel said:
An absolute battering. Has anyone on PB.com mentioned Nuneaton once in all these threads we've had? I certainly didn't have it on my radar one bit!AndyJS said:Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Good times...TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll always be fond of Nuneaton.Quincel said:
An absolute battering. Has anyone on PB.com mentioned Nuneaton once in all these threads we've had? I certainly didn't have it on my radar one bit!AndyJS said:Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.
It was the result in 2015 that made me think the Tory majority was on. 0 -
Yes, it is a technical issue based on the frequencies used by mobile operators.tlg86 said:
Do we do that to visitors?TheScreamingEagles said:
Happens across the world, not just perfidious paella eaters.tlg86 said:
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
Good point. Curiouser and Curiouser.another_richard said:
Labour did pretty well in Nuneaton constituency in last year's GE:Quincel said:
An absolute battering. Has anyone on PB.com mentioned Nuneaton once in all these threads we've had? I certainly didn't have it on my radar one bit!AndyJS said:Labour are taking a battering in Nuneaton & Bedworth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
yes....like when the south switched to the GOP. It is a myth to say the south switched wholesale form dem to dem in 1968....it happened slowly over a couple of decades, and we *might* be seeing the same here. Of course this will mean Tories slowly losing their grip in southern England.another_richard said:
If that's right its pretty amazing - its a ward Labour should only lose when they're 20% behind in the national polls.nunuone said:
There seem to be real shifts in electoral patterns.0 -
Labour won that ward by 346 votes in 2008.AndyJS said:Another Tory gain in Nuneaton:
Exhall:
Con 1,060
Lab 825
Ind 110
Green 67
TUSC 420 -
Trafford seemingly good for Labour. On at 9-1 there.
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My son is in Manchester. At uni. Prefers it to London.Cookie said:
Quite a lot of 20-somethings DO move to Manchester. We have the biggest university in the country, as well as a couple of others, and we have pretty high retention rates as well as pretty high rates of Mancunians choosing to come back home after going to university elsewhere. We're getting net inflows of 20-somethings.Quincel said:
It really does mystify me why more 20-somethings don't move to Liverpool or Manchester than London. London is great, but Liverpool and Manchester (among others) have a lot of things to live if you like the big city - and quality of life is so much higher.Pulpstar said:
Obviously I appreciate not everyone is going to want to live in Bassetlaw like me but Manchester is a genuinely good compromise of economy & house prices right now.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
I ahree with your point - I'm surprised anybody in their 20s moves to London any more - but Manchester's doing all right on that score. Can't speak for the other cities in the north...
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https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992175937327427584?s=20
Expectation management?
On the results so far, Brexit may mean UNS is dead. IIRC UNS wasn’t very predictive last year. The early results made many us of think the exit poll was wrong.0 -
At least you have 3 points on Thursday to look forward to!tlg86 said:
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.0 -
Nite all don't forget in the small hours on a difficult or satisfying night, whisky can help a lot.0
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nunuone said:
Wait wat? Huh?0 -
I see. Well I don’t think too many people in Madrid are staying up for the UK local election results.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, it is a technical issue based on the frequencies used by mobile operators.tlg86 said:
Do we do that to visitors?TheScreamingEagles said:
Happens across the world, not just perfidious paella eaters.tlg86 said:
Cheeky gits. Just about able to watch the BBC’s coverage.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do.tlg86 said:Does Spain not have 4G?
But when you roam from a UK network you get shunted to 3G or lower.
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Personally I'm hoping to spend a good amount of time as a DINK (Dual income, no kids), however most battle plans don't survive contact with the enemy (or girlfriend in this case...)TOPPING said:
Most people struggle wherever they are. Bus drivers, solicitors, gardeners, investment bankers. A nice home, children with a good education, and nice holidays seems like a good payback.Cyclefree said:
If you work in the City.....TOPPING said:
Yebbut as @MaxPB has shown, working hard in London, moreso than any other UK city, can get you very tangible benefits indeed.Cyclefree said:
In reality, the bright lights involve working round the clock in order to live in some crummy rental place and not have much left over at the end of the month. Or, if you have parents in London, live at home. Other cities provide a better lifestyle and the hope of a realistic independence.tlg86 said:
Oh dear. I’m sure at some point the youngsters will vote with their feet. It is difficult if you put down roots in an area. Perhaps what will happen is the current university students will see what’s happening and avoid London from the off. But the bright lights really are a pull factor and most people aren’t as hard nosed as we are on here.Pulpstar said:
On Question Time. The comic on the panel had a massive go at him for being anti working class or somethinganother_richard said:
23:10 in.
But you’re still a hamster on a wheel, albeit it’s a very gilded wheel. If you have a large mortgage to pay for a flat in London, you are still a wage slave.
What you want - or should want - is the ability to acquire a large “Fuck Off” or “Running Away” Fund so that you are not trapped - as all too many London professionals are - in a cycle of having to work in high earning jobs in order to pay for the homes and school fees and higher transport (and every other sort of) costs and expensive holidays in order to cope with the stress of working every hour God sends etc etc.....0 -
Why am I not surprised that Corbyn isn't going down well in Nuneaton?0
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I know my parish council anecdote about a week back (Killamarsh west) was derided here but perhaps it was a straw in the wind...0
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Affordable housing.nunuone said:
yes....like when the south switched to the GOP. It is a myth to say the south switched wholesale form dem to dem in 1968....it happened slowly over a couple of decades, and we *might* be seeing the same here. Of course this will mean Tories slowly losing their grip in southern England.another_richard said:
If that's right its pretty amazing - its a ward Labour should only lose when they're 20% behind in the national polls.nunuone said:
There seem to be real shifts in electoral patterns.0 -
Have Labour held only 1 ward in Nuneaton so far?0
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But Labour got 41% in Nuneaton constituency in the 2017 GE so he didn't put them off too much then.AndyJS said:Why am I not surprised that Corbyn isn't going down well in Nuneaton?
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Nuneaton isn't exactly in the middle of nowhere: it's only a 63 minute train journey from central London. Must be lots of London commuters there.0
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I think so. At the best, we might manage 6; at worst, 1 with a lot of near misses. Should still be an advance whatever.nunuone said:
2-3 tory gains in Wakefield looking good?david_herdson said:0 -
Tories will be disappointed not to gain Liden, Eldene and Park South in Swindon, although they have got a small swing in their favour.0
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yes...that is a big factor but of course never the only one. I think many parts of the north and midlands are more conservative when it comes to immigration for example.another_richard said:
Affordable housing.nunuone said:
yes....like when the south switched to the GOP. It is a myth to say the south switched wholesale form dem to dem in 1968....it happened slowly over a couple of decades, and we *might* be seeing the same here. Of course this will mean Tories slowly losing their grip in southern England.another_richard said:
If that's right its pretty amazing - its a ward Labour should only lose when they're 20% behind in the national polls.nunuone said:
There seem to be real shifts in electoral patterns.0 -
She means in Greater Manchester.The_Apocalypse said:https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/992175937327427584?s=20
Expectation management?
On the results so far, Brexit may mean UNS is dead. IIRC UNS wasn’t very predictive last year. The early results made many us of think the exit poll was wrong.
There are various Conservative controlled councils in the NW, not least Lancashire county council.0 -
But Labour won it easily under Blair's leadership.another_richard said:
But Labour got 41% in Nuneaton constituency in the 2017 GE so he didn't put them off too much then.AndyJS said:Why am I not surprised that Corbyn isn't going down well in Nuneaton?
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SOUTH TYNESIDE
Count finished
Bede: Labour gain from Ind (Ind was not defending the seat)
Cleadon & East Boldon: Con gain from Lab (it was a Lab gain in 2014)
The other 16 wards were Labour hold0
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