politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit
Although large parts of the UK do not have elections today this, unless something exceptional happens, will be the last big electoral test before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th next year.
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
+50.-50 is not a great night.
I don't expect K&C to fall but I think the Tories could be down 90 and Labour up more than 100
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
I know, but it won't be a UNS swing in London. There has been massive demographic change there (to the detriment of Tories) in recent years, unbelievable almost.
I don't get why people are mentioning High Barnet ward when Childs Hill and Hale are the route to victory for Labour ?!
Don't they eat more muesli and yoghurt in High Barnet?
Agreed. Childs Hill and Hale are Labour’s best chance but Sadiq Khan was campaigning in High Barnet earlier so they must think they are in with a shout there too.
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.
Well get started now.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.
Well get started now.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
Getting the data collated isn't difficult. Keeping up with all the results during the night is
I thought that last time they got 175, but are defending less because of defections By-elections and so on. I was comparing the losses and gains from last election, but I fully admit I have not checked.
Yes, I stand corrected. They can notionally lose 150.
A couple of minutes ago the only council with any liquidity on Betfair Exchange was Sutton. Even that's gone now. I put a small bet on the Tories even though I don't think it'll happen.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.
Well get started now.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
They are almost certain to be bad. There are 10,000 or so, and were last contested in 2015, on the same day as the general election. The Tories could easily lose 1,000 seats.
I think lots of people are already thinking that, which is natural given the hilarious daily shambling from the government. Brexit - a joke, not a policy.
I'm fairly confident that Richmond is a LibDem gain. Kingston will be a Libdem gain and Sutton a LibDem hold. The swings could be surprising. No betting opportunity on Betfair.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.
Have fun, guys'n'gals. I'm off to bed: I can't influence the results, most of them won't be in until tomorrow morning anyway, and there are no in-play betting opportunities.
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children. I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London: Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.
I think Barnet is expectations management, quite honestly if they're out in High Barnet then Hale and Child's Hill are gone - unless there is some weird non uniform Barnet swing going on. OTOH Wandsworth is tougher.
"Party sources say they are expecting to make significant gains but to fall short of the incredibly high expectations set for Labour during the campaign."
Comments
https://twitter.com/Tomfurness2/status/992148575625850881
It’s quite bad enough as it is...
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
I don't expect K&C to fall but I think the Tories could be down 90 and Labour up more than 100
I really do hope it happens.
https://twitter.com/business/status/992123235885109248?s=21
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I'm left on Sutton with LD +40, Tories +0 but I have to accept a (very unlikely) NOC -50
Michael Portillo has a famous motto:
Who dares wins!
WE dare!
WE will WIN!
https://labourlist.org/2018/05/local-elections-2018-results-liveblog/
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/05/new-statesman-2018-local-elections-liveblog
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/992150381982601217
PS As an aside - a whole evening on PB without Brexit being argued over. It's a first (for me) - maybe there will be life after Brexit!
Seriously though what channel should I be on, I'm practicing my French listening to BBC1 right now.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
Yes, I stand corrected. They can notionally lose 150.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992152723096326144
(Obtient le manteau)
I'm still forecasting Tories 2% ahead on national equivalent vote share.
Pull your socks up.
(And autocorrect wants him replaced by Brecon.)
Bercow needs to go. And to go now.
Wheres my coat?
Absolubtely damning for Bercow.
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers. Ken and Chelsea : White British: 62,271 39.25%
Wandsworth : 53.3% White British
OTOH Wandsworth is tougher.
No skin in the game but I'll be doing my best.
Own should have tried harder!!
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/992150381982601217
Wonder what the Telegraph final edition will look like in the morning?