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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight the results from what looks like the final major electoral test before Brexit
Although large parts of the UK do not have elections today this, unless something exceptional happens, will be the last big electoral test before Britain is due to leave the EU on March 29th next year.
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Yipee0
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I was first! Not fair.0
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Wot no exit polls?0
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Its been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the tories.....too soon?0
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A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Add 'in London'? Maybe not so bad in rUK.FrancisUrquhart said:Its been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the tories.....too soon?
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When you go to away games in Europe, you realise just how much more civilised we are than them (with the possible exception of Germany).0
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No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
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I've ~ zeroed out of Barnet. Wandsworth/Westminster bet looking good:
https://twitter.com/Tomfurness2/status/9921485756258508810 -
It's probably cos I is fick but wtf does that mean?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I don’t think you should encourage PBers to “sour Twitter”
It’s quite bad enough as it is...0 -
brendan the rule is you declare it a terrrrrrrrible night regardlessbrendan16 said:
Add 'in London'? Maybe not so bad in rUK.FrancisUrquhart said:Its been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the tories.....too soon?
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I think poking fun at the number of candidates who have been suspended in recent days.Ishmael_Z said:
It's probably cos I is fick but wtf does that mean?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL0 -
Barnet was already too close to call before the election even started. Suggests not much has changed there.0
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Perhaps not. Salisbury and Syria have done lab no favours.FrancisUrquhart said:Its been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the tories.....too soon?
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First on election nights... Gold standard prizeJackW said:Yipee
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Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
+50.-50 is not a great night.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
I don't expect K&C to fall but I think the Tories could be down 90 and Labour up more than 1000 -
Ah tks.RobD said:
I think poking fun at the number of candidates who have been suspended in recent days.Ishmael_Z said:
It's probably cos I is fick but wtf does that mean?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
In March I did advise 'laying' Labour in Barnet.
I really do hope it happens.0 -
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I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.RobD said:No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I might need to remove your anorak badge.0 -
It's a shame you can't.TheScreamingEagles said:In March I did advise 'laying' Labour in Barnet.
I really do hope it happens.
I'm left on Sutton with LD +40, Tories +0 but I have to accept a (very unlikely) NOC -500 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
Its been a terrrrrrrrrible night for the tories.....too soon?
Michael Portillo has a famous motto:
Who dares wins!
WE dare!
WE will WIN!0 -
I don't get why people are mentioning High Barnet ward when Childs Hill and Hale are the route to victory for Labour ?!0
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Gawd bless Theresa.
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9921503819826012170 -
Well, I'm going to call it a night... it's not the same as a GE, Ref or POTUS night for me. Goodnight all.
PS As an aside - a whole evening on PB without Brexit being argued over. It's a first (for me) - maybe there will be life after Brexit!0 -
Extend and pretend?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Labour has underperformed at Local Elections in Wandsworth - compared with Parliamentary elections - for over 30 years now.0
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I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL0 -
Well I did effectively, backed NOC at 16/1 and Con at 5/1TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's a shame you can't.TheScreamingEagles said:In March I did advise 'laying' Labour in Barnet.
I really do hope it happens.
I'm left on Sutton with LD +40, Tories +0 but I have to accept a (very unlikely) NOC -500 -
And runsAnazina said:
I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.RobD said:No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
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it does leave you red on Lab majority...!TheScreamingEagles said:
Well I did effectively, backed NOC at 16/1 and Con at 5/1TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's a shame you can't.TheScreamingEagles said:In March I did advise 'laying' Labour in Barnet.
I really do hope it happens.
I'm left on Sutton with LD +40, Tories +0 but I have to accept a (very unlikely) NOC -500 -
I know, but it won't be a UNS swing in London. There has been massive demographic change there (to the detriment of Tories) in recent years, unbelievable almost.AndyJS said:
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL0 -
Why is there no TV coverage yet? What do you mean no-one cares?
Seriously though what channel should I be on, I'm practicing my French listening to BBC1 right now.0 -
Agreed. Childs Hill and Hale are Labour’s best chance but Sadiq Khan was campaigning in High Barnet earlier so they must think they are in with a shout there too.AndyJS said:
Don't they eat more muesli and yoghurt in High Barnet?Pulpstar said:I don't get why people are mentioning High Barnet ward when Childs Hill and Hale are the route to victory for Labour ?!
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Who is Tom Furness?Pulpstar said:I've ~ zeroed out of Barnet. Wandsworth/Westminster bet looking good:
https://twitter.com/Tomfurness2/status/9921485756258508810 -
Well get started now.RobD said:
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.RobD said:No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.0 -
brexit deferredTheScreamingEagles said:Gawd bless Theresa.
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9921503819826012170 -
Getting the data collated isn't difficult. Keeping up with all the results during the night isTheScreamingEagles said:
Well get started now.RobD said:
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.RobD said:No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
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FPTBigRich said:
I thought that last time they got 175, but are defending less because of defections By-elections and so on. I was comparing the losses and gains from last election, but I fully admit I have not checked.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think UKIP are defending 132 seatsBigRich said:My prediction (based on very little)
lab +180
LD +20
Con - 50
UKIP -150
Yes, I stand corrected. They can notionally lose 150.0 -
I wonder if UKIP will do better than their 1 seat last year? *titters*0
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A couple of minutes ago the only council with any liquidity on Betfair Exchange was Sutton. Even that's gone now. I put a small bet on the Tories even though I don't think it'll happen.0
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that is the opposite of the earlier anecdotes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
To those dedicated souls staying up: enjoy the night.
I'm still forecasting Tories 2% ahead on national equivalent vote share.0 -
maketh the heart sick.nielh said:
brexit deferredTheScreamingEagles said:Gawd bless Theresa.
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9921503819826012170 -
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.AndyJS said:
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL0 -
They are almost certain to be bad. There are 10,000 or so, and were last contested in 2015, on the same day as the general election. The Tories could easily lose 1,000 seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well get started now.RobD said:
I had started early and got about 25 councils put in towards the end of last year, but haven't found time recently I'm afraid. Heh, next year there are 270 councils up for grabs.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm beginning to doubt your dedication to PB.RobD said:No live spreadsheet tonight, unfortunately. Mainly because I didn't have time to prepare, but also because I don't think I'm mad enough to do it for 150 councils
I might need to remove your anorak badge.
I reckon 2019's elections will be pivotal.
First ones post Brexit and could see Theresa ousted if they are bad ones.
Assuming the ERG don't oust her for keeping us in the customs union.
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Has Toppo used his inside info to predict a Conservative majority of 40-70 so causing DavidL to open the champagne ?TheScreamingEagles said:
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I think lots of people are already thinking that, which is natural given the hilarious daily shambling from the government. Brexit - a joke, not a policy.TheScreamingEagles said:Gawd bless Theresa.
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9921503819826012170 -
Do we get a Newcastle vs Sunderland race again this year ?0
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I hope you are stocking up on puns Charles.Charles said:
And runsAnazina said:
I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You can do better than that.Charles said:
And runsAnazina said:
I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:
Pull your socks up.
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Waves arm.....HOOOOUSE.....what do I win?TheScreamingEagles said:/twitter.com/faisalislam/status/992152451120877569
/twitter.com/faisalislam/status/9921527230963261440 -
As we are not going to be ready for anything else, that seems wise.TheScreamingEagles said:Gawd bless Theresa.
2023 will eventually become 2027 then people will say what's the bloody point of leaving.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/9921503819826012170 -
Newsnight to have another pop at Bercow.
(And autocorrect wants him replaced by Brecon.)0 -
Hard-working Labour vote rolling in from the pub. Never count London till the pubs stop serving food.nunuone said:
that is the opposite of the earlier anecdotes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'm fairly confident that Richmond is a LibDem gain. Kingston will be a Libdem gain and Sutton a LibDem hold. The swings could be surprising. No betting opportunity on Betfair.nunuone said:
that is the opposite of the earlier anecdotes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Good for them (even though I stopped watching it years ago)Nigelb said:Newsnight to have another pop at Bercow.
(And autocorrect wants him replaced by Brecon.)
Bercow needs to go. And to go now.0 -
We may need a silk to defend these...Anazina said:
I hope you are stocking up on puns Charles.Charles said:
And runsAnazina said:
I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Looks like the Labour vote finally got out of bed which changed the projections? Just joking!nunuone said:
that is the opposite of the earlier anecdotes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.Quincel said:
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.AndyJS said:
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL0 -
Too right - Socialists still fighting the cause while the capitalists and their lackies are dozing off with a cup of Ovaltine.Anazina said:
Hard-working Labour vote rolling in from the pub. Never count London till the pubs stop serving food.nunuone said:
that is the opposite of the earlier anecdotes....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You might accuse him of that, but he’s a fine denier...Anazina said:
I hope you are stocking up on puns Charles.Charles said:
And runsAnazina said:
I suspect this meme’s got legsCharles said:
Keeping the side upAnazina said:
A great night for the Suspenders Party. They still have appeal after all these years.TheScreamingEagles said:
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BBC reckon Swindon will be first in at midnight.another_richard said:Do we get a Newcastle vs Sunderland race again this year ?
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These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:
Wheres my coat?0 -
They'll improve once we've taken back control of our fishnets.Floater said:
These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:0 -
This is the former Black Rod isn't it ?
Absolubtely damning for Bercow.0 -
Have fun, guys'n'gals. I'm off to bed: I can't influence the results, most of them won't be in until tomorrow morning anyway, and there are no in-play betting opportunities.0
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Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.nunuone said:
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.Quincel said:
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.AndyJS said:
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Ken and Chelsea : White British: 62,271 39.25%nunuone said:
The two demographics of the two councils are suprisingly different. And don't forget the anger over Grenfell, many people in Kensington live in similar towers.Quincel said:
Especially while not predicting Lab taking Wandsworth. Having said which, swings are never uniform and there's always at least one surprise result.AndyJS said:
Predicting a Lab gain in Kensington & Chelsea is a bold claim to make.nunuone said:Labour activists in my Ealing ward have been out in force.....tories not at all. Polish Pride handing out balloons to children.
I expect a very, very good night for Labour in London.
Prediction in London:
Labour +50
Tories -50
Labour to gain Kensington and Chelsea and Barnet from Tories and Tower Hamlets from NOC.
Overall (including London):
Tories down -Unchanged more or less
Labour + 75
UKIP- utter collapse
Lib Dem- LOL
Wandsworth : 53.3% White British0 -
I’ll have your guts for garters!williamglenn said:
They'll improve once we've taken back control of our fishnets.Floater said:
These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:0 -
Looking forward to all the tight results tonightwilliamglenn said:
They'll improve once we've taken back control of our fishnets.Floater said:
These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:0 -
I think Barnet is expectations management, quite honestly if they're out in High Barnet then Hale and Child's Hill are gone - unless there is some weird non uniform Barnet swing going on.
OTOH Wandsworth is tougher.0 -
Sheer rudeness. Deserves Spanx.Charles said:
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Hose results will be the worst?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Looking forward to all the tight results tonightwilliamglenn said:
They'll improve once we've taken back control of our fishnets.Floater said:
These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:0 -
I'm not slogging through QT to wait for election night. Blue Barnet pls for my bet... Hope to wake to that but not expecting to.0
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Survation have a poll showing Labour leading 50/37 in Croydon, a swing of 5% since 2014.0
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LabourList reporting bad (for Labour) sampling estimates from Hillngdon and low turnout in Havering, Norwich and Bexley.0
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Only the stay-ups will find out tonight...Foxy said:
Hose results will be the worst?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Looking forward to all the tight results tonightwilliamglenn said:
They'll improve once we've taken back control of our fishnets.Floater said:
These puns aren't all that they seam.....Charles said:
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'because so many PBers as will be souring Twitter'
No skin in the game but I'll be doing my best.0 -
Curtice gave a beatdown to Sheffield Labour there lol0
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"Party sources say they are expecting to make significant gains but to fall short of the incredibly high expectations set for Labour during the campaign."
Own should have tried harder!!0 -
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Divine Comedy or Inferno?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/992150381982601217
Wonder what the Telegraph final edition will look like in the morning?
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