politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less poten

Richard_Tyndall said:

rcs1000 said:

OK.

Question for PBers.

My wife is off for the first two and half weeks of the summer holidays. (This is LA, so this is from about the 6th of June.)

This leaves me with 16 days to entertain an 8 and a 10 year old.

I'm not going to stay home, because I'd go mad, so am going to bundle them onto a plane and do something. Specifically something awesome that they'll love. I don't mind jumping on a plane for 12 hours if I have to, and I have two million airmiles, so can afford to go practically anywhere.

Suggestions?

Go North young man. Head for Yellowstone and the Rockies. Some of those incredible Giant Redwoods and Mountains. It will be cooler in tge summet heat and a real experience for the kids.

If it were a month later, I’d also recommend the Calgary stampede.

I think we will find that the Commons will vote to leave the Customs Union and that we will end up with something pretty much the same that goes by a different name. The idea that 17.4 million people voted to make it harder and more expensive to export to our biggest market so that we could sign sub-optimal trade deals with countries that have dictated terms to us is a bit far-fetched, but with no real opposition the government can - in practice - get away with anything.

King Cole, that's why it's so clever. Teaches a useful skill, nutritional information, and presents morally divisive decisions.

rcs1000 said:

OK.

Question for PBers.

My wife is off for the first two and half weeks of the summer holidays. (This is LA, so this is from about the 6th of June.)

This leaves me with 16 days to entertain an 8 and a 10 year old.

I'm not going to stay home, because I'd go mad, so am going to bundle them onto a plane and do something. Specifically something awesome that they'll love. I don't mind jumping on a plane for 12 hours if I have to, and I have two million airmiles, so can afford to go practically anywhere.

Suggestions?

Horse back riding in Montana

Hiking and biking in Teleride

Beaches in SoCal

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It’s all about that. Economically, it’s a battle to trade a bit of growth for the next 5 years, over the ability and freedom to take advantage of global opportunities over 25 years.

If we choose the former, matters won’t rest there; we’ll be having further big debates about leaving the customs union/rejoining the EU throughout the 2020s.

Nah.

It's like Ireland. How much discussion was there in Ireland about rejoining the United Kingdom post independence?

None. (Even when Ireland was economically stagnating and the UK was surging ahead.)

The UK has chose to leave the EU. It may prosper, or it may elect Jeremy Corbyn, but whatever path is ahead, it is extremely unlikely to involve rejoining the EU.

I think it’s more like 16thC England.

There’s a significant minority who view our split with the EU as illegitimate, and will be agitating for us to rejoin for decades.

I disagree: EU rejoining will be a very minority subject in the decades to come, and our relationship with the EU will wax and wane over time. I suspect that we'll end up rather closer (geography does that) than most Brexiteers would like, but I think the key thing is formal separation.

Formally, yes, I believe. At the end of all this, we will probably move from being semi-detached to semi-attached. People in Britain don't realise the EU is a club operating a system. All the important countries in Europe apart from Russia are part of that system. Third countries like Japan.and increasingly the United States go through that system. The UK won't, I believe, ever leave that system substantially. It will operate to system rules on a do as you are told basis. The effect of leaving the EU is that we no longer have a say on a system we are a part of. Will that bother people? I think it will. It will also have practical consequences as remaining members of the club shape it in their interests, not ours.

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

Scott_P said:

Kensington Palace - @KensingtonRoyal: Her Royal Highness The Duchess of Cambridge was admitted to St. Mary’s Hospital, Paddington, London earlier this morning in the early stages of labour.

The Duchess travelled by car from Kensington Palace to the Lindo Wing at St. Mary’s Hospital with The Duke of Cambridge.

Well that will take politics off the media for days as they go way over the top with gushing baby nonsense, names, nappies, sleepless nights, succession, etc

SouthamObserver said:

I think we will find that the Commons will vote to leave the Customs Union and that we will end up with something pretty much the same that goes by a different name. The idea that 17.4 million people voted to make it harder and more expensive to export to our biggest market so that we could sign sub-optimal trade deals with countries that have dictated terms to us is a bit far-fetched, but with no real opposition the government can - in practice - get away with anything.

I suspect even that deal is pushing it as far as the Leader of the Opposition is prepared to accept....

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

Given May in December promised enough regulatory alignment to resolve the Irish border issue she might still be able to combine staying in a Customs Union of some form with the UK negotiating its own trade deals

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

A manifesto that only a minority of MPs were elected on, remember

OldKingCole said:

JosiasJessop said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/987999530993049601?s=21

What’s the problem with having a(nother) fantasiist in the HoC?

I hope you don't really believe that.

I will defend our MPs. Most of them are good people much like ourselves: they make mistakes, but try to do a good job for their constituents and what they think is right for the country. You will find every single sin amongst them (and possibly all sins in one or two), but you will also find every virtue.

But this woman seems rather unsuitable. I would not want to be a constituent who gets on her bad side (and it sadly seems that is rather easy to do).

Maybe I should gave added LOL!

Liked the comment posted a few minutes ago about he claiming the RO had ‘lost’ 20,000 of her postal votes!

She seems the very essence of Corbynism in 2018

Guys: thanks for the travel advice. I'm thinking Banff (albeit I went there with a girlfriend once in the distant past) might be good fun. Perhaps rent a car and drive from Calgary to Vancouver...

If only my wife was away during ski season

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

Given May in December promised enough regulatory alignment to resolve the Irish border issue she might still be able to combine staying in a Customs Union of some form with the UK negotiating its own trade deals

That surely has to be the aim. Ideally, the UK will have engineered a de facto non-exclusive Associate Membership with the EU - an arrangement that Cameron could not achieve. The Referendum result will have been what was required to get us to that outcome.

rcs1000 said:

Right: I've been trying to find a new patron Saint of England.

Requirements:

1. Needs to be a man. (Sorry: patron saints tend to be men.)
2. Has to have been born in England.
3. Needs a pronounceable name.

Having scanned this list - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Anglo-Saxon_saints - I'm not finding many options.

St Bede?

What’s the matter with St Edmund? After all, he did the job for many years!

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

I don't think Remain has the numbers for CU.

There have already been several votes on it in the Commons; Govt has won every single one...

What about for a deep and meaningful customs partnership?

The final arrangement will be a single mixed agreement notified to the WTO as an FTA and customs union. These are technical and legal definitions. The title will contain "comprehensive",I have a feeling

rcs1000 said:

Guys: thanks for the travel advice. I'm thinking Banff (albeit I went there with a girlfriend once in the distant past) might be good fun. Perhaps rent a car and drive from Calgary to Vancouver...

If only my wife was away during ski season

As @Tyndall has noted, Jasper is a fantastic centre to a zillion activities (cycling, white water rafting, canoeing , kayaking, etc).

rcs1000 said:

Right: I've been trying to find a new patron Saint of England.

Requirements:

1. Needs to be a man. (Sorry: patron saints tend to be men.)
2. Has to have been born in England.
3. Needs a pronounceable name.

Having scanned this list - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Anglo-Saxon_saints - I'm not finding many options.

St Bede?

Bede would give us yet another bank holiday in the spring as the only date known about him is that he died in May, so he's out. You need to add a fourth requirement that he can be used to justify an autumn bank holiday, in light of @OldKingCole's post around half past 7.

Bromptonaut said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

Given May in December promised enough regulatory alignment to resolve the Irish border issue she might still be able to combine staying in a Customs Union of some form with the UK negotiating its own trade deals

That surely has to be the aim. Ideally, the UK will have engineered a de facto non-exclusive Associate Membership with the EU - an arrangement that Cameron could not achieve. The Referendum result will have been what was required to get us to that outcome.

Why should the EU agree to such a thing?

The biased BBC were at an WTO meeting on a prog over the weekend. They identified one of the most important people at global trade negotiations as Liam Fox the EU's trade negotiator.

For obvious reasons that seem to elude the PB intelligentsia - they have more money to spend. Why on earth would the UK be able to out-muscle the EU either directly, or wrt a third country?

I mean NZ plonk is not that nice, no matter how much Virgin Wines tell us it is.

rcs1000 said:

Right: I've been trying to find a new patron Saint of England.

Requirements:

1. Needs to be a man. (Sorry: patron saints tend to be men.)
2. Has to have been born in England.
3. Needs a pronounceable name.

Having scanned this list - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Anglo-Saxon_saints - I'm not finding many options.

St Bede?

Go back to our roots with St Dunstan (before St George got involved)

Famous for:

1. Restructuring the monestaries to make them a profitable enterprise

2. Tweaking the devil’s nose with a pair of sugar tongs

3. Simultaneously holding the roles of Archbishop of Canterbury, chancellor of the Exchequer and Lord Chancellor

4 (and I realise this may not be a positive) Being the Patron Saint of investment bankers

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

I think May could just about survive a confidence vote if the issue is staying in the Customs Union, staying in the Single Market or reversing Brexit though would be a different matter

Staying in the Customs Union is a Manifesto commitment though. It can only be staying in a customs union, of some bespoke tailoring.

Given May in December promised enough regulatory alignment to resolve the Irish border issue she might still be able to combine staying in a Customs Union of some form with the UK negotiating its own trade deals

The UK will be negotiating its own third country trade deals whether it's in a customs union or not. As those countries are (a) more interested in the EU than us and will negotiate with us in the context of our relationship with the EU and (b) will look to take advantage of our new perceived relative feebleness, it might not make a huge difference in practice. Those deals will be mediocre under any scenario, but politicians can still make a big thing out of the signing ceremony.

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

Guys: thanks for the travel advice. I'm thinking Banff (albeit I went there with a girlfriend once in the distant past) might be good fun. Perhaps rent a car and drive from Calgary to Vancouver...

If only my wife was away during ski season

As @Tyndall has noted, Jasper is a fantastic centre to a zillion activities (cycling, white water rafting, canoeing , kayaking, etc).

I'm thinking Calgary (for a night), Banff, Jasper, [somewhere], Vancouver. That should be perfect for 10 days.

Oohhhhh... I might start off in Regina, as I have very good friends there...

Is excellent - I did almost exactly the same but not Vancouver that time. That said, there is whale watching right now in Vancouver so that is always worth a detour for.

And then, who knows, pop on the Sea to Sky Highway, itself a fantastic journey, for a bit of glacier skiing at Whistler, depending on the level of your children.

F1: just a reminder that, with tiny stakes, I've backed Magnussen/Grosjean to win in Azerbaijan (around 501 and 651 with boost, third the odds top 2, Ladbrokes). Last year, a similar bet on Perez at 201 very nearly came off.

The Haas was top of the midfield at the street circuit of Australia, and has the Ferrari engine for straight line power on the massive Azerbaijan straight. Still very much an outside bet, but if misfortune strikes the top teams then I think Haas will be in position to take advantage.

rcs1000 said:

Guys: thanks for the travel advice. I'm thinking Banff (albeit I went there with a girlfriend once in the distant past) might be good fun. Perhaps rent a car and drive from Calgary to Vancouver...

If only my wife was away during ski season

You were asking about Galapogos? Not sure if in this same context. My take on them was that it was fun, but each island was a bit like visiting a zoo: you knew exactly what you were going to see, and the pathways were very restricted. They would no doubt enjoy things like the blue-footed boobies dancing to each other by showing off their feet; the frigate birds with their inflated red throat pouches - and of course the giant tortoises.

But I found the most enjoyment from sailing between the islands, as that provided more that was unexpected - especially a wall of water crossing the sea, that as we got closer proved to be many hundreds of dolphins going like hell towards a shoal of fish. That experience depends on the boat - and I was on a beautiful schooner that I think is no longer in the Pacific. Here is an image from when she was:

http://www.oocities.org/galapagostrips/rembrandt.htm

rcs1000 said:

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

Guys: thanks for the travel advice. I'm thinking Banff (albeit I went there with a girlfriend once in the distant past) might be good fun. Perhaps rent a car and drive from Calgary to Vancouver...

If only my wife was away during ski season

As @Tyndall has noted, Jasper is a fantastic centre to a zillion activities (cycling, white water rafting, canoeing , kayaking, etc).

I'm thinking Calgary (for a night), Banff, Jasper, [somewhere], Vancouver. That should be perfect for 10 days.

Oohhhhh... I might start off in Regina, as I have very good friends there...

Fond of sitting still are they? Otherwise it sounds like the road trip from hell.

rcs1000 said:

Right: I've been trying to find a new patron Saint of England.

Requirements:

1. Needs to be a man. (Sorry: patron saints tend to be men.)
2. Has to have been born in England.
3. Needs a pronounceable name.

Having scanned this list - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Anglo-Saxon_saints - I'm not finding many options.

St Bede?

Jeremy

Obviously...

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/988322745162391558

St Edward is another option, if you want some monarchist shine to it.

Do these letters to Graham Brady have an expiry date? If not it is possible that he could be quite near the 48 already. That would seem unfair if now old redundant requests are still in place. Anyone know?

Elliot said:

St Edward is another option, if you want some monarchist shine to it.

I think that his various early namesakes might not be as unifying for various reasons as one would like and might even be deemed antagonistic.

TOPPING said:

Elliot said:

St Edward is another option, if you want some monarchist shine to it.

I think that his various early namesakes might not be as unifying for various reasons as one would like and might even be deemed antagonistic.

St Edward the Confessor? Famous for selling out to Normandy... aah

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/988322745162391558

Leavers should be prepping themselves for remaining in the customs union.

#TheresaMustStay #TheresaIsTheGOAT

An lo May leads the Brexiter head bangers to soft Brexit and they grovel gratefully at her feet.

Alistair said:

An lo May leads the Brexiter head bangers to soft Brexit and they grovel gratefully at her feet.

If only @rcs1000's rules allowed for a female patron saint.

Forget changing our patron saint. I mean what better emblem for England than some Johnny Foreigner from the Middle East taking over the job of an indigenous Englishman?

Can we instead drop the French practice of giving our monarchs numbers after their name.

Let us go back to giving our monarchs adjectives after their names.

So when Charles becomes King he is known as Charles/George the Adulterer.

Alistair said:

An lo May leads the Brexiter head bangers to soft Brexit and they grovel gratefully at her feet.

Provided we leave the single market and end free movement of will not be soft Brexit although May clearly wants to avoid WTO terms Brexit too

Mr. Topping, what's wrong with Edward III?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Forget changing our patron saint. I mean what better emblem for England than some Johnny Foreigner from the Middle East taking over the job of an indigenous Englishman?

Can we instead drop the French practice of giving our monarchs numbers after their name.

Let us go back to giving our monarchs adjectives after their names.

So when Charles becomes King he is known as Charles/George the Adulterer.

Wouldn’t distinguish him from the others

(My cousins have the same tradition - Sir Derek the Dragon-Slayer has a particularly good name...)

It seems that Macron isn't turning out how the Guardian hoped:

' The French National Assembly has passed a tough new immigration law that tightens the rules around asylum.

The bill shortens asylum application deadlines, doubles the time for which illegal migrants can be detained, and introduces a one-year prison sentence for entering France illegally. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43860880

Alistair said:

An lo May leads the Brexiter head bangers to soft Brexit and they grovel gratefully at her feet.

If May signs a customs union that prevents FTAs elsewhere, I think most Brexiters on here would oppose her. If she works out some arrangement where she can have a uniquely integrated customs arrangement while still being able to sign full FTAs elsewhere, she will deserve credit from all sides.

another_richard said:

It seems that Macron isn't turning out how the Guardian hoped:

' The French National Assembly has passed a tough new immigration law that tightens the rules around asylum.

The bill shortens asylum application deadlines, doubles the time for which illegal migrants can be detained, and introduces a one-year prison sentence for entering France illegally. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43860880

Macron is a smart man. He has realised that the success of social democracy depends on maintaining sufficient support among the working class and doing that requires their concerns on immigration being met.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Forget changing our patron saint. I mean what better emblem for England than some Johnny Foreigner from the Middle East taking over the job of an indigenous Englishman?

Can we instead drop the French practice of giving our monarchs numbers after their name.

Let us go back to giving our monarchs adjectives after their names.

So when Charles becomes King he is known as Charles/George the Adulterer.

Wouldn’t distinguish him from the others

(My cousins have the same tradition - Sir Derek the Dragon-Slayer has a particularly good name...)

Sounds like your cousins are a lot of fun.

Say no to Edward I and yes to Edward The Hammer of the Scrotum Scots.

I wonder if Scottish nationalism would have been a thing had his son not been incompetent.

.

rcs1000 said:

Right: I've been trying to find a new patron Saint of England.

Requirements:

1. Needs to be a man. (Sorry: patron saints tend to be men.)
2. Has to have been born in England.
3. Needs a pronounceable name.

Having scanned this list - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Anglo-Saxon_saints - I'm not finding many options.

St Bede?

St Alfred.
(Why be limited by Rome's narrow criteria ?)

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

OK.

Question for PBers.

My wife is off for the first two and half weeks of the summer holidays. (This is LA, so this is from about the 6th of June.)

This leaves me with 16 days to entertain an 8 and a 10 year old.

I'm not going to stay home, because I'd go mad, so am going to bundle them onto a plane and do something. Specifically something awesome that they'll love. I don't mind jumping on a plane for 12 hours if I have to, and I have two million airmiles, so can afford to go practically anywhere.

Suggestions?

Horse back riding in Montana

Hiking and biking in Teleride

Beaches in SoCal

Northern California is much nicer.
A couple of days in Monterey taking in the aquarium ? (my kids loved it at that age).

One place for 16 days, and I suspect you'd still go mad.... move around.

A somewhat alarming tweet from the Telegraph:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/988341365137395712

Elliot said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Forget changing our patron saint. I mean what better emblem for England than some Johnny Foreigner from the Middle East taking over the job of an indigenous Englishman?

Can we instead drop the French practice of giving our monarchs numbers after their name.

Let us go back to giving our monarchs adjectives after their names.

So when Charles becomes King he is known as Charles/George the Adulterer.

Wouldn’t distinguish him from the others

(My cousins have the same tradition - Sir Derek the Dragon-Slayer has a particularly good name...)

Sounds like your cousins are a lot of fun.

Say no to Edward I and yes to Edward The Hammer of the Scrotum Scots.

I wonder if Scottish nationalism would have been a thing had his son not been incompetent.

Every Scot is a nationalist. The only argument is what that means. Edward I, that most aggressive of monarchs could hammer the Scots, but the English could never get their occupations to pay or sustain themselves. Apart from Cromwell, won had the best organised state of premodern times and he found it a struggle.

felix said:

another_richard said:

It seems that Macron isn't turning out how the Guardian hoped:

' The French National Assembly has passed a tough new immigration law that tightens the rules around asylum.

The bill shortens asylum application deadlines, doubles the time for which illegal migrants can be detained, and introduces a one-year prison sentence for entering France illegally. '

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43860880

We await the howls of outrage blaming it on Tory scu... Oh...wait.

It's not as if the left expected Macron to be some kind of socialist utopian anyway.

rottenborough said:

May can't make CU vote a confidence vote as per FTPA.

Good spot.