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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less poten

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  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Is that fossil evidence, though, rather than actual stone tools?

    I think your stipulation as to what constitutes higher intelligence is too narrow, anyway. Tools are initially for killing animals for food and clothing, and building shelters. A vegetarian society of creatures well enough adapted to their surroundings to get by without clothes and houses could spend their time discoursing on philosophy or calculating the value of pi, without leaving much trace.
    There is some work on this question:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-earths-only-civilization/557180/
    if you’re not explicitly looking for it, you might not see it. That recognition was, perhaps, the most concrete conclusion of our study....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rkrkrk said:

    So what's the consensus on this customs union vote?
    Does it actually matter much?

    This one is mainly symbolic, but is a pointer to what might happen in a more substantive vote later.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pauly said:

    If hardliner Brexit Tories ensure the fall of the government and make Corbyn PM they'll be marked for eternity for their betrayal like Cain, Judas, and Mark Reckless.

    These traitors need to be forced out of the Tory party.

    If May makes the customs union votes a confidence matter, surely it will be the europhiles voting in the direction of a Corbyn PM? Also, by using the language of treachery you demean yourself and our party.
    Correct, it’s the Anna Soubrys and Nicky Morgans that are threatening to vote against the whip, not the Jacob Rees-Moggs and the Peter Bones.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    rkrkrk said:

    So what's the consensus on this customs union vote?
    Does it actually matter much?

    This one is mainly symbolic, but is a pointer to what might happen in a more substantive vote later.
    Will there be a substantive vote later on this issue alone?
    I don't see how TM can win such a vote since Labour will oppose and there ought to be enough Tory remainer rebels...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Depends if they are going to call him Isambard....
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rkrkrk said:

    So what's the consensus on this customs union vote?
    Does it actually matter much?

    We are waiting to see if the Soubry sourpusses will vote to break their party manifesto commitments.

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, Edward I's dickishness in his decision-making and elderly lack of vigour cost him in Scotland. That said, he could've won had he simply made smarter choices. Not rewarding the nobles (with land) who were risking life and limb cost him a lot.

    His son being pretty inept was also helpful to the Scots.

    This was the dilemma of the invading English king. Edward III had the same problem and Henry V had a variation on this with the ransom for James I. Do you reward your own nobles who are reliable but ineffective against the combined opposition of Scottish society or do you try to co-opt the native nobility, who are effective but unreliable? One grant of land is at the expense of the other. You can't do both. Whenever things need sorting out, Scotland has always been good at getting informal working groups to rally round, consisting of younger sons of the nobility and bishops and later lawyers and business people. I guess that's why Scotland has never effectively been occupied long term, unlike Ireland or Wales, with the exception of Cromwell.

    The only people already living in Scotland in A.D. 400 were the Picts.

    It was subsequently invaded and occupied by the Scotti from Ireland.

    https://archive.archaeology.org/0107/abstracts/scotland.html
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Elliot said:

    I wonder if the new royal achieves as much as the last thirdborn to be King. William IV ushered in ceremonial monarchy. He even subjugated himself to the Commons by agreeing to, if needed, stack the Lords at the PM's request. The purpose was to stop the unelected Lords from overturning a bill that would bring greater power to the British people.

    A fine precedent for the British constitution.

    Wasn't Prince Edward last thirdborn to be King (excluding Anne?)
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Please let it be Prince Albert

    So Princess Chantelle is not on the cards then?

  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Depends if they are going to call him Isambard....
    Kingdom would be more appropriate surely?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Is that fossil evidence, though, rather than actual stone tools?

    I think your stipulation as to what constitutes higher intelligence is too narrow, anyway. Tools are initially for killing animals for food and clothing, and building shelters. A vegetarian society of creatures well enough adapted to their surroundings to get by without clothes and houses could spend their time discoursing on philosophy or calculating the value of pi, without leaving much trace.
    There is some work on this question:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-earths-only-civilization/557180/
    if you’re not explicitly looking for it, you might not see it. That recognition was, perhaps, the most concrete conclusion of our study....
    Oops - I see this has already been referred to.

    I was a little surprised by their conclusion given that there are parts of the earth's crust which have survived being chewed up by tectonic activity since the very earliest life on earth, and even the most ancient, fragile soft-bodied lifeforms have repeatedly left detectable traces (though admittedly there are significant gaps in the fossil record).
    Any civilisation with the planetary reach of ours (probably any industrial civilisation) would surely have left something clearly detectable somewhere around ?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790

    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, Edward I's dickishness in his decision-making and elderly lack of vigour cost him in Scotland. That said, he could've won had he simply made smarter choices. Not rewarding the nobles (with land) who were risking life and limb cost him a lot.

    His son being pretty inept was also helpful to the Scots.

    This was the dilemma of the invading English king. Edward III had the same problem and Henry V had a variation on this with the ransom for James I. Do you reward your own nobles who are reliable but ineffective against the combined opposition of Scottish society or do you try to co-opt the native nobility, who are effective but unreliable? One grant of land is at the expense of the other. You can't do both. Whenever things need sorting out, Scotland has always been good at getting informal working groups to rally round, consisting of younger sons of the nobility and bishops and later lawyers and business people. I guess that's why Scotland has never effectively been occupied long term, unlike Ireland or Wales, with the exception of Cromwell.

    The only people already living in Scotland in A.D. 400 were the Picts.

    It was subsequently invaded and occupied by the Scotti from Ireland.

    https://archive.archaeology.org/0107/abstracts/scotland.html
    But the Picts weren't living in Scotland. They were living in Pictland. The Scots didn't invade themselves. I would date Scotland as a concept that we would recognise today to the Macmalcolm dynasty and in particular to its greatest king David I (reigned 1124-1153).
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Yes, but we *expect* primates to have developed basic stone tools at some time, and therefore are looking for such tools to see when they were first used. We aren't necessarily doing the same for anything from the time of the dinosaurs, even if we knew what to look for.

    (Note, I am not claiming they were intelligent).
    Even a tool system based on wood would leave some evidence behind.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2018
    Hours since last Labour candidate scandal....0....

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/23/two-more-labour-candidates-blasted-illegal-sexuality-women-and-jewish-money/

    Labour really don't do any candidate background checks do they. These aren't super secret conversations recorded covertly away from the public domain, they are plastered on social media and Youtube.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Is that fossil evidence, though, rather than actual stone tools?

    I think your stipulation as to what constitutes higher intelligence is too narrow, anyway. Tools are initially for killing animals for food and clothing, and building shelters. A vegetarian society of creatures well enough adapted to their surroundings to get by without clothes and houses could spend their time discoursing on philosophy or calculating the value of pi, without leaving much trace.
    There is some work on this question:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-earths-only-civilization/557180/
    if you’re not explicitly looking for it, you might not see it. That recognition was, perhaps, the most concrete conclusion of our study....
    Oops - I see this has already been referred to.

    I was a little surprised by their conclusion given that there are parts of the earth's crust which have survived being chewed up by tectonic activity since the very earliest life on earth, and even the most ancient, fragile soft-bodied lifeforms have repeatedly left detectable traces (though admittedly there are significant gaps in the fossil record).
    Any civilisation with the planetary reach of ours (probably any industrial civilisation) would surely have left something clearly detectable somewhere around ?
    Yep. The conclusion is very poor. It seems to be based on the mistaken belief that only hard wearing materials survive in the fossil record.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So what's the consensus on this customs union vote?
    Does it actually matter much?

    This one is mainly symbolic, but is a pointer to what might happen in a more substantive vote later.
    Will there be a substantive vote later on this issue alone?
    I don't see how TM can win such a vote since Labour will oppose and there ought to be enough Tory remainer rebels...
    There will also be some Labour Leave rebels. 3 or 4 at least.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Is that fossil evidence, though, rather than actual stone tools?

    I think your stipulation as to what constitutes higher intelligence is too narrow, anyway. Tools are initially for killing animals for food and clothing, and building shelters. A vegetarian society of creatures well enough adapted to their surroundings to get by without clothes and houses could spend their time discoursing on philosophy or calculating the value of pi, without leaving much trace.
    It is both fossil record and actual tools.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    I found a tenner in someone's front garden on Saturday. I knocked on the door and handed it to them; only afterwards did I realise what it might have looked like! Luckily I had witnesses :)
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Depends if they are going to call him Isambard....
    Kingdom more likely surely...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    felix said:

    Depends if they are going to call him Isambard....
    Kingdom more likely surely...
    "Kingdom is my MIDDLE name....."
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If choosing an appropriate baby name for today, why not Draco?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    If choosing an appropriate baby name for today, why not Draco?

    Or Joffrey.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,583
    edited April 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,070

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Yes, but we *expect* primates to have developed basic stone tools at some time, and therefore are looking for such tools to see when they were first used. We aren't necessarily doing the same for anything from the time of the dinosaurs, even if we knew what to look for.

    (Note, I am not claiming they were intelligent).
    Even a tool system based on wood would leave some evidence behind.
    Yes, but it would be very scant evidence, and would we recognise it as such?

    "Oh look at this strange-shaped fossil. I think it's a piece of wood shaped like a tool."
    "Nah, it's just like this one over here, but has been twisted and flattened during fossilisation."

    And that's assuming the tools they used look like anything we would recognise.

    A book (I think Ted Neil's Supercontinent) goes into exactly how little of our civilisation would be in the fossil record in a million years time, yet alone a hundred million, yet alone recognisable.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    I found a tenner in someone's front garden on Saturday. I knocked on the door and handed it to them; only afterwards did I realise what it might have looked like! Luckily I had witnesses :)
    LOL.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2018

    Hours since last Labour candidate scandal....0....

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/23/two-more-labour-candidates-blasted-illegal-sexuality-women-and-jewish-money/

    Labour really don't do any candidate background checks do they. These aren't super secret conversations recorded covertly away from the public domain, they are plastered on social media and Youtube.

    They really need to engage with a social media reputation company to outsource their vetting of candidates, whoever is doing it now clearly isn’t up to the job. It’s also becoming a pattern, which means that every time a candidate is named there’s going to be journalists all over their history.

    But it’s clear they don’t care, how else does a vexatious litigant and conspiracy theorist end up selected to contest a marginal seat? There’s going to be several more Jared O’Maras in the next Parliament.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Pretty solid, certainly no hostility, but then this is Surrey! Our main opponent is the pesky Residents Association.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Pretty solid, certainly no hostility, but then this is Surrey! Our main opponent is the pesky Residents Association.
    Good luck to all of PB’s candidates and campaigners in the local elections!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    If choosing an appropriate baby name for today, why not Draco?

    Or Joffrey.
    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/988419665570430976
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Yes, but we *expect* primates to have developed basic stone tools at some time, and therefore are looking for such tools to see when they were first used. We aren't necessarily doing the same for anything from the time of the dinosaurs, even if we knew what to look for.

    (Note, I am not claiming they were intelligent).
    Even a tool system based on wood would leave some evidence behind.
    Yes, but it would be very scant evidence, and would we recognise it as such?

    "Oh look at this strange-shaped fossil. I think it's a piece of wood shaped like a tool."
    "Nah, it's just like this one over here, but has been twisted and flattened during fossilisation."

    And that's assuming the tools they used look like anything we would recognise.

    A book (I think Ted Neil's Supercontinent) goes into exactly how little of our civilisation would be in the fossil record in a million years time, yet alone a hundred million, yet alone recognisable.
    I have read it and unfortunately amongst Geologists it us considered pretty poor. Make it a billion years and with subduction he might have a point but a million or even 10 million years is no time at all to remove much of what we have done. I can identify habitation surfaces from a million years ago with some fairly simple chemical tests.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, Edward I's dickishness in his decision-making and elderly lack of vigour cost him in Scotland. That said, he could've won had he simply made smarter choices. Not rewarding the nobles (with land) who were risking life and limb cost him a lot.

    His son being pretty inept was also helpful to the Scots.

    This was the dilemma of the invading English king. Edward III had the same problem and Henry V had a variation on this with the ransom for James I. Do you reward your own nobles who are reliable but ineffective against the combined opposition of Scottish society or do you try to co-opt the native nobility, who are effective but unreliable? One grant of land is at the expense of the other. You can't do both. Whenever things need sorting out, Scotland has always been good at getting informal working groups to rally round, consisting of younger sons of the nobility and bishops and later lawyers and business people. I guess that's why Scotland has never effectively been occupied long term, unlike Ireland or Wales, with the exception of Cromwell.

    The only people already living in Scotland in A.D. 400 were the Picts.

    It was subsequently invaded and occupied by the Scotti from Ireland.

    https://archive.archaeology.org/0107/abstracts/scotland.html
    But the Picts weren't living in Scotland. They were living in Pictland. The Scots didn't invade themselves. I would date Scotland as a concept that we would recognise today to the Macmalcolm dynasty and in particular to its greatest king David I (reigned 1124-1153).
    Since the Normans invaded England (Angles land) and took over from the Anglo Saxons, this must mean we are living in Normandy not England.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.
    You're pushing how wonderful Theresa May is then?

    (I hesitate to even ask - for which party? ;-) )
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,426
    Sandpit said:

    Hours since last Labour candidate scandal....0....

    https://order-order.com/2018/04/23/two-more-labour-candidates-blasted-illegal-sexuality-women-and-jewish-money/

    Labour really don't do any candidate background checks do they. These aren't super secret conversations recorded covertly away from the public domain, they are plastered on social media and Youtube.

    They really need to engage with a social media reputation company to outsource their vetting of candidates, whoever is doing it now clearly isn’t up to the job. It’s also becoming a pattern, which means that every time a candidate is named there’s going to be journalists all over their history.

    But it’s clear they don’t care, how else does a vexatious litigant and conspiracy theorist end up selected to contest a marginal seat? There’s going to be several more Jared O’Maras in the next Parliament.
    https://twitter.com/David__Osland/status/988367857930129408
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    Amber Rudd at the dispatch box
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited April 2018
    Stephen Lawrence Day to be held annually

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43869377
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Pretty solid, certainly no hostility, but then this is Surrey! Our main opponent is the pesky Residents Association.
    And a few pesky kids I'd imagine.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,070
    edited April 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Off-topic:

    A slightly odd question for PB's brains trust:

    How can we be sure that some dinosaurs did not develop higher intelligence, or even societies?

    No evidence at all of tool use. Whilst the record is scant we would probably have found something.
    60 m years is a long time for evidence of anything to survive. With us, the giveaway will probably be the plastic microbeads from our cosmetics.
    We have evdence of tool use amongst primates from 3.4 million years ago. Once you get to that stage in the fossilisation process it doesn't really matter if it is 3.4 or 34 or 134 million. If they used tools then we would find evidence if it. Especially given we find nests, eggs and feathers.
    Yes, but we *expect* primates to have developed basic stone tools at some time, and therefore are looking for such tools to see when they were first used. We aren't necessarily doing the same for anything from the time of the dinosaurs, even if we knew what to look for.

    (Note, I am not claiming they were intelligent).
    Even a tool system based on wood would leave some evidence behind.
    Yes, but it would be very scant evidence, and would we recognise it as such?

    "Oh look at this strange-shaped fossil. I think it's a piece of wood shaped like a tool."
    "Nah, it's just like this one over here, but has been twisted and flattened during fossilisation."

    And that's assuming the tools they used look like anything we would recognise.

    A book (I think Ted Neil's Supercontinent) goes into exactly how little of our civilisation would be in the fossil record in a million years time, yet alone a hundred million, yet alone recognisable.
    I have read it and unfortunately amongst Geologists it us considered pretty poor. Make it a billion years and with subduction he might have a point but a million or even 10 million years is no time at all to remove much of what we have done. I can identify habitation surfaces from a million years ago with some fairly simple chemical tests.
    Ah, thanks. I went to a talk by him about ten years ago in Bath. As a matter of interest, how do you identify habitation surfaces from so long ago chemically?

    Whilst listening to his talk, I did wonder how well some of the mass concrete we've poured over the last hundred years would last, yet alone silted-up quarries.

    Edit: and having fetched it off my bookshelf, he is talking about hundreds of millions and billions of years.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2018
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/988422424042582020
    Be interesting to see what Rudd has to say given this....
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/988422424042582020
    Be interesting to see what Rudd has to say given this....

    Compensation details?
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    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/988422424042582020
    Be interesting to see what Rudd has to say given this....

    She is making a grown up speech while labour try to shout her down.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967

    Sean_F said:

    If choosing an appropriate baby name for today, why not Draco?

    Or Joffrey.
    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/988419665570430976
    It wouldn't surprise me. I'm convinced that Kate Middleton planned the death of Princess Diana.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    If choosing an appropriate baby name for today, why not Draco?

    Or Joffrey.
    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/988419665570430976
    It wouldn't surprise me. I'm convinced that Kate Middleton planned the death of Princess Diana.
    Its another conspiracy theory for the moonbat Maomentumers to latch on to.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.

    Can certainly say the Tory support on the doorstep is as a solid as it was for last years council elections, but what we don’t know is how good our opposition is. You tend to find that those who don’t vote for you just are generally negative more often than relaying who they will vote for. So canvassing can miss the hardening up of a single opposition.

    I can only assume the level pegging overall in the polls hides a quite significant change of support. If the movement in London is so great away from the tories than the counter balance is a growth in support elsewhere. Northern leave voting towns are about to have a better than expected local election I’m guessing.

    (Shouldn’t be picking up Council seats eight years into government....)
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Hope MPs across the house hold her to this promise. Hopefully the Home Office are going to get things right this time.
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    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person
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    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.
    You're pushing how wonderful Theresa May is then?

    (I hesitate to even ask - for which party? ;-) )

    These are local elections.

    It's all about Potholes, Potholes, Potholes - a really serious issue in Bucks where the road infrastructure is crumbling and the Conservative leader of the Couny Council has given up attempting to mend the roads as the problem needs billions spent on replacement roads.

    Certainly North Bucks roads are now like a third world country or France in the 1960s for those around then.

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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Hope MPs across the house hold her to this promise. Hopefully the Home Office are going to get things right this time.
    I do hope this is very narrowly confined to those though and not an amnesty which some are certainly trying to push through on the back of this.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    JohnO said:

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Pretty solid, certainly no hostility, but then this is Surrey! Our main opponent is the pesky Residents Association.
    Residents Association: Tory Second XI
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713

    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
    Is that because she's just managed to save herself from the sack?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.
    You're pushing how wonderful Theresa May is then?

    (I hesitate to even ask - for which party? ;-) )

    These are local elections.

    It's all about Potholes, Potholes, Potholes - a really serious issue in Bucks where the road infrastructure is crumbling and the Conservative leader of the Couny Council has given up attempting to mend the roads as the problem needs billions spent on replacement roads.

    Certainly North Bucks roads are now like a third world country or France in the 1960s for those around then.

    The county council elections were last year...
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,058
    felix said:

    Depends if they are going to call him Isambard....
    Kingdom more likely surely...
    Almost certainly won’t be Sean Or Seamas. Alex seems way down the probabilities, too.
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    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
    Is that because she's just managed to save herself from the sack?
    I think Corbyn saved her when he cocked up at PMQ's. That was the moment of greatest danger for her

    Labour are in danger of giving the impression that they pay little heed to illegal immigration, and even immigration, which is still a big issue in the Country and special for the working class
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited April 2018

    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584

    It’s not true. The wind rush generation were never required to apply for citizenship and not granted it unless applied. Being born in the UK is not sufficient to acquire citizenship. Your parents need to be British.
    It could be sensed as an anomaly, something that should have been factored in as rules over the last decade and a half have increasingly made employment, housing and access to non emergency health determinant on entitlement.

    But them (children of windrush) not actually being citizens is a symptom of the 1982 immigration act.
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    I found a tenner in someone's front garden on Saturday. I knocked on the door and handed it to them; only afterwards did I realise what it might have looked like! Luckily I had witnesses :)

    Interesting... I found a tenner on a doorstep when I was leafleting on Sunday. I assumed it might be there for some good reason so I ignored it, left it where it was, and just posted the leaflet through the letterbox. The house looked like it might be unoccupied though.

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,797

    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
    I suspect if I’d received the hospital pass from Theresa, and been subject to the last week or so’s barrage, I might be slightly emotional too...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    notme said:

    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584

    It’s not true. The wind rush generation were never required to apply for citizenship and not granted it unless applied. Being born in the UK is not sufficient to acquire citizenship. Your parents need to be British.
    It could be sensed as an anomaly, something that should have been factored in as rules over the last decade and a half have increasingly made employment, housing and access to non emergency health determinant on entitlement.

    But them (children of windrush) not actually being citizens is a symptom of the 1982 immigration act.
    But their parents were British if they came from the Crown colonies.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Good news, but I can’t help thinking they should have delayed the announcement until tomorrow if they wanted it to make the news bulletins.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    Scott_P said:
    TicToc? Are they trolling the government?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,790

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Mr. 43, Edward I's dickishness in his decision-making and elderly lack of vigour cost him in Scotland. That said, he could've won had he simply made smarter choices. Not rewarding the nobles (with land) who were risking life and limb cost him a lot.

    His son being pretty inept was also helpful to the Scots.

    This was the dilemma of the invading English king. Edward III had the same problem and Henry V had a variation on this with the ransom for James I. Do you reward your own nobles who are reliable but ineffective against the combined opposition of Scottish society or do you try to co-opt the native nobility, who are effective but unreliable? One grant of land is at the expense of the other. You can't do both. Whenever things need sorting out, Scotland has always been good at getting informal working groups to rally round, consisting of younger sons of the nobility and bishops and later lawyers and business people. I guess that's why Scotland has never effectively been occupied long term, unlike Ireland or Wales, with the exception of Cromwell.

    The only people already living in Scotland in A.D. 400 were the Picts.

    It was subsequently invaded and occupied by the Scotti from Ireland.

    https://archive.archaeology.org/0107/abstracts/scotland.html
    But the Picts weren't living in Scotland. They were living in Pictland. The Scots didn't invade themselves. I would date Scotland as a concept that we would recognise today to the Macmalcolm dynasty and in particular to its greatest king David I (reigned 1124-1153).
    Since the Normans invaded England (Angles land) and took over from the Anglo Saxons, this must mean we are living in Normandy not England.
    Fair point. My reply is that England was more developed as a functioning country at the time of the Norman invasion than Pictland was at the time of the invasion of Scots from Ulster. Pictland only covered part of present day Scotland (mostly north and east of Stirling) - there were other native Brittonic tribes in southern Scotland that hung on after the collapse of the Picts. The Scots and the Picts co-existed for a while. There were concurrent English invasions from Northumbria into Lothian, Fife and Galloway, and later Viking invasions from Norway to the Hebrides and the west coast, which was the original Scottish heartland. It's complicated.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    notme said:

    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584

    It’s not true. The wind rush generation were never required to apply for citizenship and not granted it unless applied. Being born in the UK is not sufficient to acquire citizenship. Your parents need to be British.
    It could be sensed as an anomaly, something that should have been factored in as rules over the last decade and a half have increasingly made employment, housing and access to non emergency health determinant on entitlement.

    But them (children of windrush) not actually being citizens is a symptom of the 1982 immigration act.
    The Windrush generation arrived in the UK, not as migrants, but as British subjects exercising a form of “freedom of movement” within the borders of the British territories. The British Nationality Act 1948 imparted the status of citizenship of the United Kingdom and Colonies (CUKC status) to all British subjects connected with the United Kingdom or a British colony.

    https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/windrush-generation-is-not-alone.aspx
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited April 2018

    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
    Is that because she's just managed to save herself from the sack?
    I think Corbyn saved her when he cocked up at PMQ's. That was the moment of greatest danger for her

    Labour are in danger of giving the impression that they pay little heed to illegal immigration, and even immigration, which is still a big issue in the Country and special for the working class
    Yup, Corbyn missed a wide open goal at PMQs by making an assumption about facts that could have been checked. He has a huge team of researchers (£6m of Short money) at his disposal to prepare him for these sessions and missed completely.

    He also didn’t suggest that Rudd should consider her position, as he was determined to pin everything on the PM. Rudd could have been toast by Wednesday night if Corbyn had played his cards right.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Nigelb said:

    Compensation - each case is painful and often harrowing for those involved, the state has let them down, and has happened for some time and people will be compensated under an independent person

    Amber Rudd quite emotional
    I suspect if I’d received the hospital pass from Theresa, and been subject to the last week or so’s barrage, I might be slightly emotional too...
    If she'd offered this two weeks ago, she'd look a hero.

    As it appears to have been dragged out of her, she looks a zero.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Sandpit said:

    Good news, but I can’t help thinking they should have delayed the announcement until tomorrow if they wanted it to make the news bulletins.
    I dunno. this might be a attempt to bring an end to the entire sad sorry mess, so post baby news cycle the media have moved on completely.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Good news, but I can’t help thinking they should have delayed the announcement until tomorrow if they wanted it to make the news bulletins.
    I dunno. this might be a attempt to bring an end to the entire sad sorry mess, so post baby news cycle the media have moved on completely.
    Maybe, but from a purely political view it would make sense for everyone to know the story had a happy ending - especially a fortnight before the local elections.

    If the story had finished with the HS resigning, today would have been the perfect day to do it - we all laugh at Jo Moore but she was completely right, her mistake was to write down what everyone was thinking.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    notme said:

    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584

    It’s not true. The wind rush generation were never required to apply for citizenship and not granted it unless applied. Being born in the UK is not sufficient to acquire citizenship. Your parents need to be British.
    It could be sensed as an anomaly, something that should have been factored in as rules over the last decade and a half have increasingly made employment, housing and access to non emergency health determinant on entitlement.

    But them (children of windrush) not actually being citizens is a symptom of the 1982 immigration act.
    You are completely wrong - being born in the UK with a parent who has Indefinite Leave to Remain (as a Windrush immigrant would) is enough to be British.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940

    AndyJS said:

    Any news from PBers campaigning in the local elections?

    Getting a great reception on door step.
    You're pushing how wonderful Theresa May is then?

    (I hesitate to even ask - for which party? ;-) )

    These are local elections.

    It's all about Potholes, Potholes, Potholes - a really serious issue in Bucks where the road infrastructure is crumbling and the Conservative leader of the Couny Council has given up attempting to mend the roads as the problem needs billions spent on replacement roads.

    Certainly North Bucks roads are now like a third world country or France in the 1960s for those around then.

    I think we will see wide variations in the outcomes from LA to LA. Conservatives will blame Labour councils, Labour will blame the Conservative government, and Lib Dems will claim they are the local champions. My authority is traditionally NOC and in recent years has seem LD-Green coalition, Con-LD, Lab-LD, and now Lab-Ind. Labour need three gains to take overall control and are targeting the 5 Lib Dems seeking re-election. We also have a concurrent by-election in a Con ward which Labour have won recently. In my opinion - too close to call.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    That said, this is a good point by Lammy:

    https://twitter.com/davidlammy/status/988444337456451584

    It’s not true. The wind rush generation were never required to apply for citizenship and not granted it unless applied. Being born in the UK is not sufficient to acquire citizenship. Your parents need to be British.
    It could be sensed as an anomaly, something that should have been factored in as rules over the last decade and a half have increasingly made employment, housing and access to non emergency health determinant on entitlement.

    But them (children of windrush) not actually being citizens is a symptom of the 1982 immigration act.
    The Windrush generation arrived in the UK, not as migrants, but as British subjects exercising a form of “freedom of movement” within the borders of the British territories. The British Nationality Act 1948 imparted the status of citizenship of the United Kingdom and Colonies (CUKC status) to all British subjects connected with the United Kingdom or a British colony.

    https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/windrush-generation-is-not-alone.aspx
    Amber Rudd just stood up in the HofC has just very specifically that was not the case.
This discussion has been closed.