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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fewer than 3 in 5 of GE2017 LAB voters prefer Corbyn as “next PM”
There is a new YouGov poll for the Times which has the Tories moving to a 5% lead compared with the level pegging that they had a week ago.
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Makes the locals interesting, PVs are going out now.
More importantly, Labour look to be losing those who didn't mind voting for Corbyn when doing so was a free kick at Bishop Brennan's arse, but are decidedly squeamish once he might actually, you know, get to be PM....
SNP: 39%
Conservative: 30%
Labour: 15%
Lib Dem: 9%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ck1l2ze60y/TimesResults_180417_VI_Trackers.pdf
I still wonder at what point Mr. Observer will (if he doesn't succeed in ousting Corbyn) give up. Because right now, any effort to help Labour is helping Corbyn into Number Ten.
I don’t think this about the voters getting squeasmish ‘once he might actually get to be PM.’ Corbyn had crap ratings when Labour was twenty five points behind. The polls at the GE oversaw a reduction the Tory lead and thus the increasing prospect of Corbyn becoming PM, yet that didn’t lead to Corbyn’s ratings crashing and burning. The GE campaign was actually one of the few occasions which saw Corbyn’s ratings rise.
The last few months (especially this last month) has highlighted Corbyn’s weaknesses, while May was having a good month until the Windrush scandal. I think that’s the reason for Corbyn’s declining ratings. But in this climate we’ve seen that ratings can change very quickly, so we have to see how Corbyn’s Labour handles things from here.
We are where we are.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-42875215
Also it’s not mid-term.
Now Brexit may or may not have alienated some previous Conservative voters but on the other hand it may or may not have resulted in them gaining new supporters and without Brexit it would certainly have seen them losing supporters to UKIP.
You're certainly right about the effects of housing and tuition fees but they have nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with Remainers such as Blair, Brown, Cameron, Clegg and Osborne.
And Corbyn would HAVE to go along with calling it.....
9.59 Tories await Exit Poll to see how big their majority has increased to.
10.00 Cats kicked throughout Tory Land
I also don’t think the Conservative party are going to allow themselves to be led into another GE by TMay.
Unfortunately, she flubbed it.
The public do not have the appetite for another snap election, nor do the Conservative party, and nor does Mrs May.
Until then, polling is really of academic interest. It merely tells us Corbyn cannot win the next election, all things being equal.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/987652541369503744
Ps electiral college system for deputy has caused row. Members voted Julie Morgan, but Carolyn Harris gets the gig.
I'm trying to think of a more staggeringly stupid policy.
1. If you force coal up the merit order (irrespective of underlying cost of generation), then you will increase electricity prices for American businesses and consumers.
2. By reducing demand for natural gas, you will reduce the amount of activity in the space. And natural gas employment - even ignoring services firms - is much larger than that of the coal industry.
3. Natural gas is simply a better way to generate electricity: it has lower capital and maintenance costs, it's much more flexible, modern plants have efficiencies almost twice that of coal plants, and it produces far fewer pollutants than coal.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-20/mcdonnell-says-labour-not-ruling-out-second-brexit-referendum
Is Wales a testbed, then, for radical centrism in its horribly underperforming schools?
Didn’t think so.
The outlook for the LDs in London looks positive only where Labour doesn't make a showing, in SW London against the Tories. Against Labour in the central Boroughs and in three-way contests in outer NW, NE and SE, things look difficult. However if Labour falters and the Tories do better - as most recent polls suggest - the LDs have a better chance of hanging on in Boroughs like Haringey and Southwark.
I'm having dinner with Sean Fear tonight and will cover it and other polling when I return.
If you were having dinner with SeanT you could allow him to cover it.
http://www.howardgoodall.co.uk/articles-press-etc/brexit-and-music-theme-and-variations
They were also a time of free university education and low personal debt.
And when Britain seemed to have both reasonable levels of aspiration and fairness.
How has home ownership levels changed between middle and working class people over the last few decades ?
Traditionally the middle classes would have higher levels of home ownership with an increase in working class home ownership levels in the 1980s (RTB etc).
But I wonder if the fall in home ownership during the last 15 years has been concentrated among the middle classes with them coming into the workforce later, having student debts, more likely to go travelling, more likely to move to urban areas etc.
They will continue to pretend to be on both sides as long as that attracts voters
With 64% possession Spurs managed 2 shots on target - do you ever wonder if attacking play isn't as good as its claimed to be.
British film, music, design, architecture, fashion etc exports have all grown massively in the past two decades.
Not least via the establishment of London as de facto cultural capital of Europe.
Perhaps you'd like to make a list of the great achievements which people will remember a century from now.
Yes, it’s made a lot of money. And taxes paid too, which is helpful when considering the cost of your round-the-clock incontinence service.
And the idea that London only became 'de facto cultural capital of Europe' after 1997 is comical.
And indeed, since you appear to be a philistine and a halfwit, it would be wasted on you anyway.
I am here to point out the value of creative exports (according to that article) nearly rank with the budget of the whole NHS. You seem to disregard that in your sneering troglodytism.
Are Leavers going through their own version of the Kubler Ross stages of grief, and if so what stage is this?
All I was saying is, people moaning about the consequences of Brexit should look at themselves and their own side. Cameron asked for very little and was never going to walk away. The author of that piece should have thought about this stuff before the referendum, not after.
You are literally blaming some guy for the predictable consequences of your own actions (presuming you voted Brexit).
http://hurryupharry.org/2018/04/21/is-supporting-assassination-a-red-line-for-labour/
"If you support the religiously motivated assassination of a politician, will the Labour party accept you as a member?
This may seem an absurd question to ask, especially of the party that lost Jo Cox to a fanatic"
"This a clear-cut case, right? Surely Labour would never let such a man on board.
Oh yes it would. Actually, it has. Here’s Corbynista vicar and Labour PPC for Cities of London and Westminster Steven Saxby fawning over Ul Hassan and welcoming his “friend”to the party. Saxby says the news is “marvellous” and that Mahmood is “very well-respected in the community”
Bloody hell Labour.....
You so often stoop to shrill abuse when people ask inconvenient questions.
A tendency of people with closed minds in my experience.
What I'm saying is, perhaps those who do benefit from EU membership should not have taken it for granted. It's people like the author who reap all the benefits and everyone else shoulders the costs. Had Cameron got something substantial on migration, I think Remain would have won. But he didn't even try.
I’m not sure *what* your point is.
I suspect you don’t have one. You simply saw an opportunity to sneer at some old New Labour PR term “Cool Britannia”, presumably seeking warm approval from your fellow trogs.
Not really relevant to 2018, is it?
Deport ‘em, I reckon. Those trombonists? They don’t like it up ‘em!
For instance if TM was polling much worse at the start of the year, I have no doubt she'd have faced a challenge by now.
1) Will the benefits of leaving the EU outweigh the costs?
2) Will the costs and benefits be distributed evenly?
The answer to 1) has been debated on here at length. The answer to 2) is almost certainly no. That, however, is always the case with any political and economic decision. Whilst I think it's a shame that other European states are now making things harder for British musicians, perhaps the author should think about what joining the EEC did to industries such as fishing.
What really fucks me off is the sense of entitlement of certain groups in this country.
Just to put him into context....
Off Topic Happy with United today, more effective than brilliant but it'll do.
It’s not clear to me why he should be criticised for sticking to his subject rather than extending to a broad essay on the EU and British industry since the 70s.
As for the sense of entitlement, I don’t really detect that at all. Simply a lament for the baleful consequences of Brexit on his livelihood, on British export earnings, and on cultural life in this country.
Yet within a couple of replies you were into 'philistine', 'halfwit' and now 'trogs'.
I would have hoped that anyone raising an issue would be willing to discuss it in a civilised manner and be open to new thoughts relating to it.
Are you ?
So if you wish we could discuss art or music or literature of recent years and how it has changed. Or indeed seeing that you mentioned the Black and White Minstrel Show how current television compares to that of the 1970s.
The 1970s gave us Elizabeth R, Secret Army, The Onedin Line, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Grange Hill and various Plays For Today among the drama programs and Fawlty Towers, Porridge, Some Mothers Do 'Av 'Em, The Good Life, Rising Damp and Not The Nine O'Clock News among the comedy. Plus Minder which was a bit of both.
Now how does the last decade compare to that ?
I've just managed to escape watching the rest of the Queen's B'day celebration on the tele, during which I was fortunate to have a classic Eric Frank Russell novel to read.
The whining of the Brexiteers really is something to behold.
And the only whinging is coming from entitled twats like Goodall.