politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

AlastairMeeks said:

The clearest cut cases last time for a personal vote that I spotted while putting this map together were Rob Marris in Wolverhampton South West and Paul Scully in Sutton & Cheam. Mhairi Black also relatively bucked the trend sharply.

Most other meaningful swings could be largely explained through other means.

I backed Labour at 14-1 to win back Black's seat, I was not happy!

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

Perhaps you could remind us of the comments of Frau Merkel in your review?

Gosh yes, Merkel is obviously the most anti-UK leader of Germany in living memory... silly of SO not to have included her...

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: from BBC gossip, it seems that the German deal expires this year and there's a chance it'll just fall off the calendar. Weirdly low attendance numbers (although Hockenheim isn't the greatest circuit, that doesn't stop Singapore working) given the large amount of German success with both teams and drivers.

The German attendance has fallen dramatically since Schumacher was winning everything a decade ago, despite Vettel and Mercedes enjoying recent successes. Both Hockenheim and Nurburg are in the middle of nowhere, and the tracks have both been somewhat shortened and sanitised over the years.

Singapore works for the same reasons Monaco does, they are showcase events even if the racing is less than exciting. I remember Murray Walker commenting 25 years ago that if there wasn't already a GP in Monaco it's unlikely they'd allow one now - but it's still there!

Edit: Interesting statistical analysis of the pace during testing. He reckons Mercedes are half a second quicker than Ferrari and RB.
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/2018-preseason-analysis/

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: from BBC gossip, it seems that the German deal expires this year and there's a chance it'll just fall off the calendar. Weirdly low attendance numbers (although Hockenheim isn't the greatest circuit, that doesn't stop Singapore working) given the large amount of German success with both teams and drivers.

The German attendance has fallen dramatically since Schumacher was winning everything a decade ago, despite Vettel and Mercedes enjoying recent successes. Both Hockenheim and Nurburg are in the middle of nowhere, and the tracks have both been somewhat shortened and sanitised over the years.

Singapore works for the same reasons Monaco does, they are showcase events even if the racing is less than exciting. I remember Murray Walker commenting 25 years ago that if there wasn't already a GP in Monaco it's unlikely they'd allow one now - but it's still there!

Edit: Interesting statistical analysis of the pace during testing. He reckons Mercedes are half a second quicker than Ferrari and RB.
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/2018-preseason-analysis/

What is interesting is that the German Motogp event at the Sausagering Sachesenring is very well attended. It's one of the more interesting circuits on the calendar and usually produces good racing.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

I see Donald Trump has responded overnight to the news about Russia.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973360355790479361?s=21

Yep - anyone hoping for the kind of US backing of the UK that would have been automatic from any other American president after a Russian attack on British soil that may have had as many as 500 victims will be sorely disappointed. But, hey, the bloke’s put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office and he’s not an uppity African, so all is well.

The US Secretary of State from the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning.

Where's the tweet of condemnation from Trump? If there had been the slightest suspicion of a muslim connection he'd have been all over it, as we all know!

The Secretary of State has made quite clear the administration's position and Trump has tweeted on how a new report has shown there was not the collusion with Russia some accused his campaign of

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

SouthamObserver said:

‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

This would be the same US President who backed Brexit after his predecessor said the UK would 'go to the back of the queue' by voting Leave and who restored the bust of Winston Churchill his predecessor removed?

Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries

Yep, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that. As you point out, putting a bust of Churchill in the Oval Office has bought an awful lot of leeway for a US president who imposes trade sanctions on the UK and remains silent when the Russians launch an attack on British soil that may have affected up to 500 people and left a number in critical condition.

Has Putin offered us a trade deal like Trump? No. Putin also backed Corbyn and Tsipras.

It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.

As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.

What trade deal has Trump offered us?

He has offered us a deal terms to be negotiated which is more than can be said for Putin

felix said:

Rexel56 said:

felix said:

SouthamObserver said:

‪We have the most anti-UK leader of the opposition in living memory at the same time as the most anti-UK American president. What are the odds?‬

Perhaps you could remind us of the comments of Frau Merkel in your review?

Gosh yes, Merkel is obviously the most anti-UK leader of Germany in living memory... silly of SO not to have included her...

She wants EU sanctions against Russia removed - I'm unaware of any comments yet from Germany on the current situation . Perhaps you know different?

Recently:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britian-russia-germany/merkel-ally-eyes-joint-western-response-against-russia-in-ex-spy-case-idUKKCN1GP0ZG?il=0

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, humbug to Monaco and Singapore!

On the other hand, if Mercedes are that fast it looks nice for the Bottas bet. Be nice if he won the first race.

Yes, I'm liking the Bottas e/w bet, but am waiting to see everyone's true pace in Australia qualifying first. Not usually a strong Mercedes track in Melbourne, but Lewis was a quarter of a second clear of Vettel and Bottas last year on Saturday.

As everyone is agreeing, this will be the wettest Festival for thirty years. Going to be heavy soft in my places, at best soft heavy in places.

Time for those horses that love it hock deep.

DYOR

I wonder how much damage to the UK's reputation crap universities are doing:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/student-anglia-ruskin-university-mickey-mouse-degree-pok-wong-tuition-fees-a8250441.html

I've read similar stories of foreign students expecting London Metropolitan to be a prestigious university.

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

As a matter if interest, what do you think happened to Malaysia Flight 17 ?

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

“So called nerve agents”... priceless... You’ll be first in the queue then for the trial to prove that the substance in question merely has a placebo effect...

So.

JosiasJessop said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

As a matter if interest, what do you think happened to Malaysia Flight 17 ?

mate, I'm more interested in his views on Lord Lucan.

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

So you are expecting the security services to trot along and outline all the information they had received from confidential sources and national technical means ?

BannedInParis said:

JosiasJessop said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

As a matter if interest, what do you think happened to Malaysia Flight 17 ?

I'm more interested in his views on Lord Lucan.

Last seen riding Shergar.....

Dura_Ace said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

Syka blyat'... unbelievable.

Cyka blyat, dear boy. But you're not wrong in your sentiment.

JosiasJessop said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

As a matter if interest, what do you think happened to Malaysia Flight 17 ?

It was destroyed by Mossad.

Sean_F said:

JosiasJessop said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

As a matter if interest, what do you think happened to Malaysia Flight 17 ?

It was destroyed by Mossad.

No, Finchley Road was behind it.

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Anorak said:

Dura_Ace said:

JWisemann said:

So has any concrete proof yet been offered that the Russian government was responsible for the bizarre failure to kill two people with so-called nerve agents then?

The official story has more holes than an Aberdeen fisherman's nets.

Or are we all happy to bang along the drums to our already massively discredited feral overlords' latest attempt to whip up sentiment against whatever the current official state enemy may be (we have always been at war with Eurasia)?

Amazing to see grown men and women acting like kids cheering for their favourite WWF wrestler.

Syka blyat'... unbelievable.

Cyka blyat, dear boy. But you're not wrong in your sentiment.

Syka starts with a Cyrillic 'С' which is transliterated as 'S' in most Roman alphabet languages. You need the ' on the end to represent the myagkii znak 'soft sign' otherwise the pronunciation will be wrong.

Mr. Ace, just out of interest, is the B of blyat a Russian one (V) or English one (B)?

Anorak said:

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

I just feel pity now. I hope one day you'll see the world for how it is, and not how a dark and miserable corner of the internet says it is.

Fancy actually tackling the substance of my assertions rather than resorting to playground-level debate?
Sorry for rousing you out of your cosy faux-patriotic slumber (in fact the Tories are the least patriotic of all our political parties, abject traitors to everything that makes this country great).

Dura_Ace said:

Syka starts with a Cyrillic 'С' which is transliterated as 'S' in most Roman alphabet languages. You need the ' on the end to represent the myagkii znak 'soft sign' otherwise the pronunciation will be wrong.

Huh. I'm quite sure your translation/transliteration is technically the correct one. The gaming meme uses the corrupted version starting with a 'c'. It may be wrong, but it's fairly commonplace.

Anorak said:

Dura_Ace said:

Syka starts with a Cyrillic 'С' which is transliterated as 'S' in most Roman alphabet languages. You need the ' on the end to represent the myagkii znak 'soft sign' otherwise the pronunciation will be wrong.

Huh. I'm quite sure your translation/transliteration is technically the correct one. The gaming meme uses the corrupted version starting with a 'c'. It may be wrong, but it's fairly commonplace.

My expertise in Russian swearing comes from living and working in Russia for 9 years not playing PUBG.

BannedInParis said:

another_richard said:

I wonder how much damage to the UK's reputation crap universities are doing:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/education/education-news/student-anglia-ruskin-university-mickey-mouse-degree-pok-wong-tuition-fees-a8250441.html

I've read similar stories of foreign students expecting London Metropolitan to be a prestigious university.

The one I do have some sympathy for was the oxford one where the tutor went on Sabbatical towards the end of the degree and he got a relatively junior academic, if not PhD, for the crunch period.

That's tending towards negligence and there's a key action, or absence of an action, in there.

In this context I wonder if I should be embarrassed to confess that I’ve got an Anglia Ruskin MA. It was very late in life though, and didn’t really affect my job or job prospects. TBH, too, I wasn’t that impressed with some of the teaching.

Used to be known as Anglia Polytechnic Uni; Almost a Proper University.
Now Anglia Ruskin: Almost a Real University!

Dura_Ace said:

Anorak said:

Dura_Ace said:

Syka starts with a Cyrillic 'С' which is transliterated as 'S' in most Roman alphabet languages. You need the ' on the end to represent the myagkii znak 'soft sign' otherwise the pronunciation will be wrong.

Huh. I'm quite sure your translation/transliteration is technically the correct one. The gaming meme uses the corrupted version starting with a 'c'. It may be wrong, but it's fairly commonplace.

My expertise in Russian swearing comes from living and working in Russia for 9 years not playing PUBG.

Fair enough. It may be an increasingly useful skill.

So May made a threat. Does anyone know what she has in mind? The World Cup boycott is silly and self-defeating, expelling a few diplomats would be weak. What is she going to do?

JWisemann said:

Anorak said:

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

I just feel pity now. I hope one day you'll see the world for how it is, and not how a dark and miserable corner of the internet says it is.

Fancy actually tackling the substance of my assertions rather than resorting to playground-level debate?
Sorry for rousing you out of your cosy faux-patriotic slumber (in fact the Tories are the least patriotic of all our political parties, abject traitors to everything that makes this country great).

"so-called substance", right?

MarqueeMark said:

JWisemann said:

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Well, being discovered just six miles from one of the best facilities in the world for dealing with nerve agents might have helped.

How lies the snow in Moscow, comrade? Or can you not see outside from your troll farm bunker?

I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Gardenwalker said:

JWisemann said:

Anorak said:

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

I just feel pity now. I hope one day you'll see the world for how it is, and not how a dark and miserable corner of the internet says it is.

Fancy actually tackling the substance of my assertions rather than resorting to playground-level debate?
Sorry for rousing you out of your cosy faux-patriotic slumber (in fact the Tories are the least patriotic of all our political parties, abject traitors to everything that makes this country great).

It’s healthy to be skeptical of what the government tells us. And May was not unequivocal - “highly likely” is not “100% certain”.

No politician is going to ever say "100% certain" in the same way that no scientists is ever going to say "100% safe", they need to leave themselves enough wriggle room incase they have been misled or there was a cockup down the chain of command.

Definitely off the Christmas Card List:

Sir John:

rather than creating a bandwagon in favour of independence, Brexit served to expose a fissure in the nationalist movement that Nicola Sturgeon has struggled to straddle. Brexit has, perhaps, turned out to be more of a problem for the First Minister than an opportunity.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-politics-of-brexit-in-scotland/

Theuniondivvie said:

Your move, Mr Bond.

https://twitter.com/mogabee3/status/973504683934437376

It's in the post, Mr Putin. We just aren't going to tell you who in Russia it is addressed to.....

Jonathan said:

So May made a threat. Does anyone know what she has in mind? The World Cup boycott is silly and self-defeating, expelling a few diplomats would be weak. What is she going to do?

1. Kick every Russian diplomat out of the UK - they're pretty much all FSB anyway.
2. Shut down Russia Today's offices and studios in London, pull their broadcast licence.
3. Start freezing bank accounts of Russians linked to their government in London.
4. Clamp down on business and tourist visas for Russians.
5. Ban direct flights from UK to Russia.
6. Work to find other sources of gas for northern Europe by next winter.
7. Lead international efforts for increased sanctions and have friendly countries also start freezing assets of Russians.
8. Yes, lead international efforts to organise a sporting boycott - a farce of a World Cup with half the teams missing also has the nice side-effect of giving FIFA a bloody nose.

Anything I've missed?

Sandpit said:

5. Ban direct flights from UK to Russia.

Up to a point, Lord Copper.

The issue is not so much direct flights but overflying rights - the UK is small and fairly easy to fly around. Russia is huge and in the direct path of flights from the UK to north Asia - a complete b*gger for BA/Virgin if they stopped over-flight rights.....

OldKingCole said:

Has anyone else commented on the significant swing to the Tories in Scotland.

The Scottish Tories talk of little else..... ;-)

President Putin really should cut back on the botox:

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/973433684945711104

Nigelb said:

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Note 'accidental exposure'. Presumably when deliberately used it would only take a miniscule amount to kill very quickly, given these alleged agents are supposed to be many times more powerful than VX and therefore lethal in the range of a few miligrams. So to try and fail to kill but still affect the target would seem to be quite difficult.

The Brits did it!

https://www.rt.com/news/421123-uk-complicit-skripal-poisoning/

JWisemann said:

Nigelb said:

JWisemann said:

Yes, lets all trust Mrs May. After all its not as though we have all been spun an endless stream of mistruths by our security services over the last couple of decades (has everyone really forgotten the 45 minutes thing?)

Personally I hold no candle at all for Putin, though I think he has done the world a massive service by wiping out a vast horde of Tory-backed extremist jihadis from all over the world in Syria (if only the Soviets had managed similar back in Afghanistan). I also think that a multipolar world is far safer than one where a neocon-controlled US and their lapdogs here can run rampant across the globe for their own financial gain.

However, if one has the slightest bit of objectivity it is clear to see that we are a few years into a blanket demonisation campaign directed from the shadier parts of the transatlantic security establishment.

The looming destruction of the Tory-backed terrorists in East Ghouta is making them go particularly insane. The yanks are desperate to hit Damascus to save their jihadi forces and they can't because of the Russians. This kind of thing is why Russia is public enemy number one, not some murky attempted assassination for which the official story makes no sense whatsoever.

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Note 'accidental exposure'. Presumably when deliberately used it would only take a miniscule amount to kill very quickly, given these alleged agents are supposed to be many times more powerful than VX and therefore lethal in the range of a few miligrams. So to try and fail to kill but still affect the target would seem to be quite difficult.

I bow to your superior expertise in small scale chemical weapons deployment...

Dura_Ace said:

FrankBooth said:

Jonathan said:

So May made a threat. Does anyone know what she has in mind? The World Cup boycott is silly and self-defeating, expelling a few diplomats would be weak. What is she going to do?

I don't know if the world cup boycott would be silly. You'd have to know a fair bit about internal Russian politics to know what the impact would be which I certainly don't. I can't help but feel that those who rule it out are just Engurland fans who don't want their summer ruined.

They wouldn't care about an England boycott. They would probably welcome a simplification of the policing situation. It would take a few other European countries to make it hurt. Particularly if France did it. Every Russian leader since Pyotr I has had a massive (and well earned) cultural inferiority complex toward France.

We're counting on Poland to take up the slack in the hooliganism stakes if England is a no show.

The digs between the Russian MP and the Pole on the Today program this morning were very encouraging in that respect. Hilarious radio including calling Poland a prostitute country dependent upon the US and the Pole pointing out that the Russian was not really an MP at all because Russia had no elections worth a damn.

JWisemann said:

Nigelb said:

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Note 'accidental exposure'. Presumably when deliberately used it would only take a miniscule amount to kill very quickly, given these alleged agents are supposed to be many times more powerful than VX and therefore lethal in the range of a few miligrams. So to try and fail to kill but still affect the target would seem to be quite difficult.

Additionally, precursors to the agents are usually much easier to stabilize than the agents themselves, so this technique also made it possible to increase the shelf life of the agents. This has the disadvantage that careless preparation may produce a non-optimal agent.

Unless prepared or delivered incompetently it seems.

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

JWisemann said:

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Well, being discovered just six miles from one of the best facilities in the world for dealing with nerve agents might have helped.

How lies the snow in Moscow, comrade? Or can you not see outside from your troll farm bunker?

I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?

Sounds about right to me.
These are weapons designed to be delivered on a mass scale, and it's not as though they have had a great deal of practice, or are unconstrained by simple happenstance, in carrying out an attack like this.

Benpointer said:

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

So May made a threat. Does anyone know what she has in mind? The World Cup boycott is silly and self-defeating, expelling a few diplomats would be weak. What is she going to do?

1. Kick every Russian diplomat out of the UK - they're pretty much all FSB anyway.
2. Shut down Russia Today's offices and studios in London, pull their broadcast licence.
3. Start freezing bank accounts of Russians linked to their government in London.
4. Clamp down on business and tourist visas for Russians.
5. Ban direct flights from UK to Russia.
6. Work to find other sources of gas for northern Europe by next winter.
7. Lead international efforts for increased sanctions and have friendly countries also start freezing assets of Russians.
8. Yes, lead international efforts to organise a sporting boycott - a farce of a World Cup with half the teams missing also has the nice side-effect of giving FIFA a bloody nose.

Anything I've missed?

6. Looks like a great idea - can't think why we haven't thought about discovering new gas supplies before. Good Job we've got 6 months to find them and get them on-line!

Presumably though, it would be impossible for Russia to cut off supplies to Britain alone since it pretty much all comes via pipelines that serve the rest of Europe too.

Yes, and because we have been so active in bringing our fracking fields online to give us energy independence incase Russian gets nasty in the future... oh wait!

AlsoIndigo said:

JWisemann said:

Nigelb said:

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Note 'accidental exposure'. Presumably when deliberately used it would only take a miniscule amount to kill very quickly, given these alleged agents are supposed to be many times more powerful than VX and therefore lethal in the range of a few miligrams. So to try and fail to kill but still affect the target would seem to be quite difficult.

Additionally, precursors to the agents are usually much easier to stabilize than the agents themselves, so this technique also made it possible to increase the shelf life of the agents. This has the disadvantage that careless preparation may produce a non-optimal agent.

Unless prepared or delivered incompetently it seems.

The last Russian assassination left a trail of Polonium across London, Europe and several aircraft.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Putting university salaries into context.

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/973475645585010691

Didn't realise UK VCs coached the talent pool for the richest sporting league in the world.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Putting university salaries into context.

https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/973475645585010691

Didn't realise UK VCs coached the talent pool for the richest sporting league in the world.

But they are university employees though.

Benpointer said:

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

JWisemann said:

Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

Well, being discovered just six miles from one of the best facilities in the world for dealing with nerve agents might have helped.

How lies the snow in Moscow, comrade? Or can you not see outside from your troll farm bunker?

I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?

Sounds about right to me.
These are weapons designed to be delivered on a mass scale, and it's not as though they have had a great deal of practice, or are unconstrained by simple happenstance, in carrying out an attack like this.

Interesting points (though WFT does IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG mean?!).

What chance the agents contaminated themselves btw - I presume the security services have done a trawl of the countries hospitals for any unexplained admissions?

I took it to mean "I am about as far from being an expert as it is possible to get....."

EDIT: or I could be reading too much into his forehead slamming into the keyboard.....

CarlottaVance said:

AlsoIndigo said:

JWisemann said:

Nigelb said:

Knock yourself out, fellow traveller...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent
Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health….

Note 'accidental exposure'. Presumably when deliberately used it would only take a miniscule amount to kill very quickly, given these alleged agents are supposed to be many times more powerful than VX and therefore lethal in the range of a few miligrams. So to try and fail to kill but still affect the target would seem to be quite difficult.

Additionally, precursors to the agents are usually much easier to stabilize than the agents themselves, so this technique also made it possible to increase the shelf life of the agents. This has the disadvantage that careless preparation may produce a non-optimal agent.

Unless prepared or delivered incompetently it seems.

The last Russian assassination left a trail of Polonium across London, Europe and several aircraft.....

I'm avoiding the West of England Line Class 158/159s at the moment, just in case.