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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 62
    edited March 2018

    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

    Well, being discovered just six miles from one of the best facilities in the world for dealing with nerve agents might have helped.

    How lies the snow in Moscow, comrade? Or can you not see outside from your troll farm bunker?
    I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

    It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

    IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?
    Indeed, incompetent delivery could happen. Of all the silly conspiracy theory bollocks out there, the idea it cannot have been Russia because it hasn’t yet succeeded is among the stupidest. Governments, intelligence agencies and operatives never cock up do they? What a load of horseshit.

    Perhaps it was not Russia, despite the targets and the method making suspicion reasonable, but ‘they didn’t succeed (yet)’ is bloody idiotic as reasoning for why it couldn’t be them.
    Nerve agents aren't designed to be conveniently applied to individual targets. Like the Litvinenko killing, the weapon is as interesting as the object.
    I know we're used to things like Sarin which are designed to be spread widely, but why can't you have a nerve agent designed to apply to individual targets?
    We do, it's called botox and it is used in cosmetic surgery routinely and less frequently in the treatment of muscular spasm disorders ... Or saxitoxin used in anesthaesia.

    For an assassin's weapons, it would not take too much effort to create an effective delivery means, but it gets increasingly more difficult as the subject is more unwilling and more so again if you want the deliverer to go unnoticed and complete delivery unharmed himself or herself.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    nielh said:

    As I predicted when he started. He didn't last long.

    Mind you no one else does either.
    Guess this means the lunatics are running the asylum.

    There's still a couple of Generals trying to keep things under control. Doubt they will last long either.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    Well that was pretty boring in terms of detail, although the Chancellor did have a few jokes and political jibes at those on the other side of the House.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So, blame Russia, fired before 8am the next morning.

    We probably can't expect too much support from the EU either, given the gas supply situation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,489
    John McD talking about Tory bully boys.

    Irony is finally dead and buried.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510
    McIRA having a go at the government for not cutting the deficit fast enough. Is he smoking crack?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    As I predicted, the BBC is covering the Telford case - just a bit more slowly than the newspaper which has already been investigating for 18 months:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-43385049
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    OBR teeing themselves up to be absolutely miles off here.

    They have not forecast any major changes in borrowing as a result of government in any years, and none for 2017/18 makes sense, as we are much too late for that.

    Their forecast for 2017/18 amounts to a suggestion that whilst the first ten months of the year have been lower than last year, and receipts among the best ever, February and March will be some of the worst months for the Exchequer in years. I do not believe it for a moment.

    In respect of other years, they say this: "On the receipts side, relatively little of the higher 2017-18 starting point is assumed to persist, as most of the unexpected strength in SA income tax and onshore corporation tax appears to reflect timing changes rather than genuinely higher underlying liabilities." If true that would be interesting, but I have not seen the detail.



  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    MTimT2 said:

    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    JWisemann said:

    Still waiting for someone to explain how an attack with a supposedly extremely powerful nerve agent has so far yet to have killed a single person.

    Well, being discovered just six miles from one of the best facilities in the world for dealing with nerve agents might have helped.

    How lies the snow in Moscow, comrade? Or can you not see outside from your troll farm bunker?
    I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

    It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

    IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?
    Indeed, incompetent delivery could happen. Of all the silly conspiracy theory bollocks out there, the idea it cannot have been Russia because it hasn’t yet succeeded is among the stupidest. Governments, intelligence agencies and operatives never cock up do they? What a load of horseshit.

    Perhaps it was not Russia, despite the targets and the method making suspicion reasonable, but ‘they didn’t succeed (yet)’ is bloody idiotic as reasoning for why it couldn’t be them.
    Nerve agents aren't designed to be conveniently applied to individual targets. Like the Litvinenko killing, the weapon is as interesting as the object.
    I know we're used to things like Sarin which are designed to be spread widely, but why can't you have a nerve agent designed to apply to individual targets?
    We do, it's called botox and it is used in cosmetic surgery routinely and less frequently in the treatment of muscular spasm disorders ... Or saxitoxin used in anesthaesia.

    For an assassin's weapons, it would not take too much effort to create an effective delivery means, but it gets increasingly more difficult as the subject is more unwilling and more so again if you want the deliverer to go unnoticed and complete delivery unharmed himself or herself.
    Choose one's poison. They're everywhere in nature, including the herbaceous border
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-29949698

    The suspected killer of Markov 1978 only emerged after 35 years, so he may still go to his grave legally an innocent person: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9949856/Prime-suspect-in-Georgi-Markov-umbrella-poison-murder-tracked-down-to-Austria.html

    That was 'only' the Bulgarian secret service in action, not the KGB.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    So Brexit neither creating a "bonus" nor a trade problem. Boring middle ground indeed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Will the last sensible person in trumps cabinet please remember to turn the lights off....
  • Hammond absolutely nails John McDonnell on bullying.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495

    So Brexit neither creating a "bonus" nor a trade problem. Boring middle ground indeed.
    Hardly. We’re predicting another five years of near stagnation. Does 1.3%, 1.4% even keep up with population growth?

    Growth suddenly slowed in Q2 2016, apparently. I wonder why.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    I can't think of any plausibke explanation for this other than Trump being blackmailed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,817
    Elliot said:

    I can't think of any plausibke explanation for this other than Trump being blackmailed.
    What’s your explanation for Steve Bannon supporting the Front National?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495

    Will the last sensible person in trumps cabinet please remember to turn the lights off....

    I believe Ben Carson is still hanging on as Secretary of Housing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213

    £45bn???

    The OBR have gone nuts.

    Completely confused by that. Should have been nearer £39bn.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    twitter.com/johannabarr/status/973542436000628736

    Given trump previous statements on terrorists that was probably a positive factor in her hiring not a negative.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2018
    DavidL said:

    £45bn???

    The OBR have gone nuts.

    Completely confused by that. Should have been nearer £39bn.
    They're just wrong.

    There are no methodological changes (see p.98) and no new spending commitments.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,510

    Will the last sensible person in trumps cabinet please remember to turn the lights off....

    Wow, Tillerson was just about the last adult left in the White House.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    There won't be this time either. 2018 will exceed 1.5% for a start.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,817

    Will the last sensible person in trumps cabinet please remember to turn the lights off....

    I believe Ben Carson is still hanging on as Secretary of Housing.
    He has his ideas...

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/05/ben-carson-egyptian-pyramids-were-grain-stores-not-pharoahs-tombs
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    No doubt, during the Great Depression, too.
    Depends how low a bar you want to set.

    It’s rather odd to be so lacklustre given the strength of our peers and trading partners.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    twitter.com/JohnCassidy/status/973547900725792768

    twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/973548545763610624

    That stone / wikileaks story has been previously reported no?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    Boaty McBoatface survives its first big test:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43378290
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    Growth in 2010 to 2012 was better than that.
  • tlg86 said:
    Yup, it was the first reason I turned against Mrs May.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 62

    MTimT2 said:

    John_M said:

    kle4 said:



    I doubt the proximity to Porton Down helped the two initial victims much, at least initially.

    It's much more likely to be incompetent delivery. If you remember the Litvinenko (sp?) case, the agents who delivered it were utterly incompetent, and it took them a couple of goes - and in the process they left a radioactive trail across London.

    IAAAFFBAEAIIPTG, but may the chemical have been inexpertly delivered, so they got a sub-lethal dose?

    Indeed, incompetent delivery could happen. Of all the silly conspiracy theory bollocks out there, the idea it cannot have been Russia because it hasn’t yet succeeded is among the stupidest. Governments, intelligence agencies and operatives never cock up do they? What a load of horseshit.

    Perhaps it was not Russia, despite the targets and the method making suspicion reasonable, but ‘they didn’t succeed (yet)’ is bloody idiotic as reasoning for why it couldn’t be them.
    Nerve agents aren't designed to be conveniently applied to individual targets. Like the Litvinenko killing, the weapon is as interesting as the object.
    I know we're used to things like Sarin which are designed to be spread widely, but why can't you have a nerve agent designed to apply to individual targets?
    We do, it's called botox and it is used in cosmetic surgery routinely and less frequently in the treatment of muscular spasm disorders ... Or saxitoxin used in anesthaesia.

    For an assassin's weapons, it would not take too much effort to create an effective delivery means, but it gets increasingly more difficult as the subject is more unwilling and more so again if you want the deliverer to go unnoticed and complete delivery unharmed himself or herself.
    Choose one's poison. They're everywhere in nature, including the herbaceous border
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-29949698

    The suspected killer of Markov 1978 only emerged after 35 years, so he may still go to his grave legally an innocent person: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/9949856/Prime-suspect-in-Georgi-Markov-umbrella-poison-murder-tracked-down-to-Austria.html

    That was 'only' the Bulgarian secret service in action, not the KGB.
    Delphinium is one of my favorite flowers too!

    All the best neurotoxins are from nature - evolution is still the best inventor, whether it is medicines, biotech tools or weapons you are after.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    JonathanD said:

    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    Growth in 2010 to 2012 was better than that.
    But was 2008 to 2012 more or less than the (I can't do compound interest in my head) 7.0% forecast by the OBR?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,602
    Just a week ago Pompeo dismissed claims Putin did not interfere in the 2016 election.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cia-chief-pompeo-slams-putin-election-meddling-claim-false-article-1.3868366

    If anything he will be even more anti Putin than Tillerson, Tillerson at least had had previous business dealings in Russia

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To be fair, few of us would expect to keep our jobs in the long term after being known publicly to consider our boss to be a fucking moron.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    Rex Tillerson is the son of Patty Sue and Bobby Joe. How all-American is that?

    Anyway, Trump has now lost Big Oil....
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    tlg86 said:

    JonathanD said:

    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    Growth in 2010 to 2012 was better than that.
    But was 2008 to 2012 more or less than the (I can't do compound interest in my head) 7.0% forecast by the OBR?
    No but my point is 2010 to 2012 felt pretty bad economically and the average growth rate then was slightly faster than what is being forecast for the next 5 years.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 62

    Will the last sensible person in trumps cabinet please remember to turn the lights off....


    Kelly, Mattis and McMaster are said to have a pact - one goes, the lot go. If true, and if exercised, I think that would be real implosion time for the Administration and wet knickers time for the GOP.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    That’s superb. Amis could not have done better in his pomp.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,258
    JonathanD said:

    tlg86 said:

    JonathanD said:

    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    Growth in 2010 to 2012 was better than that.
    But was 2008 to 2012 more or less than the (I can't do compound interest in my head) 7.0% forecast by the OBR?
    No but my point is 2010 to 2012 felt pretty bad economically and the average growth rate then was slightly faster than what is being forecast for the next 5 years.
    It felt bad because inflation was quite high. A litre of diesel went from £1.00 to £1.40.
  • To be fair, few of us would expect to keep our jobs in the long term after being known publicly to consider our boss to be a fucking moron.

    How long do you given Sir Alan Duncan given that a few months ago it was revealed he thinks his boss, Boris Johnson, is a c*nt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213
    edited March 2018

    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    No doubt, during the Great Depression, too.
    Depends how low a bar you want to set.

    It’s rather odd to be so lacklustre given the strength of our peers and trading partners.
    It's not just odd, its wrong. Its so wrong that you can't help think the OBR has been lent on so Hammond can have more days like today when he exceeds expectations. It also takes the pressure off to spend much more money too (or at least May and Hammond will think it does). It's delusional because people don't pay that close attention.

    These forecasts will look silly in 8 days when we get the February deficit figure and it becomes obvious that the out turn will be significantly lower than £45bn. The next day we will get the upward revisal of GDP for 2017. In April we will get Q1 of 2018 which I would guess will be 0.4 or 0.5%. And so on and so forth.
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 62
    tlg86 said:
    Clearly a key player in the Administration:

    "In his role in the White House, McEntee did tasks such as giving the president messages and making sure the clocks were correctly set for daylight-saving time."
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    That is really low politics from Putin and Trump to overshadow Big Phil Hammond's spring statement by attempted assassination / sacking Tillerson. Sounds like collusion to me...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    DavidL said:


    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    No doubt, during the Great Depression, too.
    Depends how low a bar you want to set.

    It’s rather odd to be so lacklustre given the strength of our peers and trading partners.
    It's not just odd, its wrong. Its so wrong that you can't help think the OBR has been lent on so Hammond can have more days like today when he exceeds expectations. It also takes the pressure off to spend much more money too (or at least May and Hammond will think it does). It's delusional because people don't pay that close attention.

    These forecasts will look silly in 8 days when we get the February deficit figure and it becomes obvious that the out turn will be significantly lower than £45bn. The next day we will get the upward revisal of GDP for 2017. In April we will get Q1 of 2018 which I would guess will be 0.4 or 0.5%. And so on and so forth.
    But Phil won't get to announce that he has exceed expectations for 2017/18!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    tpfkar said:

    That is really low politics from Putin and Trump to overshadow Big Phil Hammond's spring statement by attempted assassination / sacking Tillerson. Sounds like collusion to me...

    It's all the Finchley Road people
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,229

    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...

    Exactly.

    As I've said before, there's a lot of bullshit spoken about Brexit on here.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited March 2018

    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...

    Exactly.

    As I've said before, there's a lot of bullshit spoken about Brexit on here.
    I'm just trying to unpick if the OBR has had to accept any of the government's say so on this.

    Edit: not very much of it, indeed it is very slightly lower than the Treasury (page 215 and following)
  • MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 62

    To be fair, few of us would expect to keep our jobs in the long term after being known publicly to consider our boss to be a fucking moron.

    Indeed. But if we applied that test there would be no moderating influences left in the White House at all.

    I am wondering if the timing has to do with Trump's intentions for the North Korean negotiations. If so, bad news indeed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,213

    DavidL said:


    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    No doubt, during the Great Depression, too.
    Depends how low a bar you want to set.

    It’s rather odd to be so lacklustre given the strength of our peers and trading partners.
    It's not just odd, its wrong. Its so wrong that you can't help think the OBR has been lent on so Hammond can have more days like today when he exceeds expectations. It also takes the pressure off to spend much more money too (or at least May and Hammond will think it does). It's delusional because people don't pay that close attention.

    These forecasts will look silly in 8 days when we get the February deficit figure and it becomes obvious that the out turn will be significantly lower than £45bn. The next day we will get the upward revisal of GDP for 2017. In April we will get Q1 of 2018 which I would guess will be 0.4 or 0.5%. And so on and so forth.
    But Phil won't get to announce that he has exceed expectations for 2017/18!
    He'll think he can do that in the budget. But he is undoubtedly politically inept. As bad as his boss in that department. The Tories have gone from the most politically astute (sometimes admittedly overly so in that they played silly games) to the least politically astute leadership in a very short period of time. I'm not liking the change much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,817
    MTimT2 said:

    To be fair, few of us would expect to keep our jobs in the long term after being known publicly to consider our boss to be a fucking moron.

    Indeed. But if we applied that test there would be no moderating influences left in the White House at all.

    I am wondering if the timing has to do with Trump's intentions for the North Korean negotiations. If so, bad news indeed.
    Or just because Trump feels more self-confident after securing a foreign policy win in his terms and has decided he’ll do it his way?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MTimT2 said:

    tlg86 said:
    Clearly a key player in the Administration:

    "In his role in the White House, McEntee did tasks such as giving the president messages and making sure the clocks were correctly set for daylight-saving time."
    Then why the need not to even come back in to get his coat???
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    tlg86 said:

    That's one of those stats that looks clever but really isn't. We'd have been delighted with those figures in 2008-2012.
    No doubt, during the Great Depression, too.
    Depends how low a bar you want to set.

    It’s rather odd to be so lacklustre given the strength of our peers and trading partners.
    It's not just odd, its wrong. Its so wrong that you can't help think the OBR has been lent on so Hammond can have more days like today when he exceeds expectations. It also takes the pressure off to spend much more money too (or at least May and Hammond will think it does). It's delusional because people don't pay that close attention.

    These forecasts will look silly in 8 days when we get the February deficit figure and it becomes obvious that the out turn will be significantly lower than £45bn. The next day we will get the upward revisal of GDP for 2017. In April we will get Q1 of 2018 which I would guess will be 0.4 or 0.5%. And so on and so forth.
    But Phil won't get to announce that he has exceed expectations for 2017/18!
    He'll think he can do that in the budget. But he is undoubtedly politically inept. As bad as his boss in that department. The Tories have gone from the most politically astute (sometimes admittedly overly so in that they played silly games) to the least politically astute leadership in a very short period of time. I'm not liking the change much.
    George Osborne failed to correct the record when we [didn't] have a double dip recession, a time which the newspaper still report as having happened when in fact it didn't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,617
    Wait, wasn't the chap a former Russian spy :o ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,334
    edited March 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Wait, wasn't the chap a former Russian spy :o ?
    Technically he was both wasn't he.

    A bit like Roger Hollis, Tom Driberg, and Harold Wilson.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546

    twitter.com/atrupar/status/973553670892802050

    Surprised he didn’t say there was blame on both sides...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    Pulpstar said:

    Wait, wasn't the chap a former Russian spy :o ?
    No, I think the POTUS is a current agent...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254
    On one level, it's remarkable that King Tillerson got as far as he did in the USA....

    He must have given mere President Trump an inferiority complex.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927

    MTimT2 said:

    tlg86 said:
    Clearly a key player in the Administration:

    "In his role in the White House, McEntee did tasks such as giving the president messages and making sure the clocks were correctly set for daylight-saving time."
    Then why the need not to even come back in to get his coat???
    Perhaps his jokes were *really* bad ... ?

    "I'll get my coat..."

    "...no, you won't."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,602

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    MTimT2 said:

    tlg86 said:
    Clearly a key player in the Administration:

    "In his role in the White House, McEntee did tasks such as giving the president messages and making sure the clocks were correctly set for daylight-saving time."
    Then why the need not to even come back in to get his coat???
    I thought the implication in the article was that staff had been operating on an interim security clearance, and the full clearance had just come (or failed to come) through.

    I imagine if someone was working in the Cabinet Office and was suddenly found to have failed his vetting he would be out the door pretty sharply, possibly even precipitously depending on the reason of the failure.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...

    Exactly.

    As I've said before, there's a lot of bullshit spoken about Brexit on here.
    I'm just trying to unpick if the OBR has had to accept any of the government's say so on this.

    Edit: not very much of it, indeed it is very slightly lower than the Treasury (page 215 and following)
    The OBR future payments is based on the Governments estimate of what it will pay

    "On future financial flows and the financial settlement terms described in the joint report published by the UK Government and the European Union on progress during phase one of the Article 50 negotiations, the Government directed us to the Chancellor’s letter to the Treasury Select Committee of 24 January 2018 setting out the Treasury’s estimate of the total cost of the settlement. "
  • How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
    Eisenhower and our adventure in the Suez canal might be the last time a US President failed to support us publicly.

    I think we're used to very pro UK Presidents in recent times, such as Reagan and Weinberger offering to loan us an Aircraft Carrier during the Falklands.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,737
    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

  • This is going to need a real response from the government.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/973559988412125185
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    edited March 2018
    Cameron, of course, did point out the security risks implied by Brexit.

    All of a sudden, it’s not a good time to be giving two fingers up to our European allies. Putin is testing NATO, and we can be pretty sure we can’t count on the US so long as Trump is at the controls.

    Cameron was widely deplored by the PB armchair gang for scaremongering.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    Well quite. Tears were shed on here when Obama merely warned that creating a new US/UK trade deal would be a protracted process - never mind ripping apart the arrangements we already have.
  • Rex Tillerson should sue Trump for unfair/constructive dismissal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    Trump is such a shitbag.
    Who in their right mind would work for him or deal with him?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    JonathanD said:

    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...

    Exactly.

    As I've said before, there's a lot of bullshit spoken about Brexit on here.
    I'm just trying to unpick if the OBR has had to accept any of the government's say so on this.

    Edit: not very much of it, indeed it is very slightly lower than the Treasury (page 215 and following)
    The OBR future payments is based on the Governments estimate of what it will pay

    "On future financial flows and the financial settlement terms described in the joint report published by the UK Government and the European Union on progress during phase one of the Article 50 negotiations, the Government directed us to the Chancellor’s letter to the Treasury Select Committee of 24 January 2018 setting out the Treasury’s estimate of the total cost of the settlement. "
    Where does it say that?

    Most of the references in the annex are to the joint report.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    ... I thought he was told on Friday...?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,069
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Trump is such a shitbag.
    Who in their right mind would work for him or deal with him?
    Other shitbags? I can think of a UK minister who'd be highly qualified.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254


    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Are there any? I mean, I'm prepared to give Trump a chance to see how his approach on North Korea plays out, because at least it seems to be getting more traction than 8 years of Obama. But its a huge leap from that to saying I'm a Trumper. I find virtually every other aspect of his existence just plain objectionable.

    Brexit does not owe its existence to President Donald Trump. It may owe much more to the tin-eared efforts of "back of the queue" Obama - although All Out War suggests that George Osborne may have had a hand in that little episode.....

  • That's Trump spin apparently.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    JonathanD said:

    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Page 18 details our "divorce bill" at £37.1bn, including £16.4bn in contributions to the budget until 2020, i.e. until we actually leave.

    The rest, c.£20bn is really for the withdrawal.

    That is what the Government told us but some doubted...

    Exactly.

    As I've said before, there's a lot of bullshit spoken about Brexit on here.
    I'm just trying to unpick if the OBR has had to accept any of the government's say so on this.

    Edit: not very much of it, indeed it is very slightly lower than the Treasury (page 215 and following)
    The OBR future payments is based on the Governments estimate of what it will pay

    "On future financial flows and the financial settlement terms described in the joint report published by the UK Government and the European Union on progress during phase one of the Article 50 negotiations, the Government directed us to the Chancellor’s letter to the Treasury Select Committee of 24 January 2018 setting out the Treasury’s estimate of the total cost of the settlement. "
    Where does it say that?

    Most of the references in the annex are to the joint report.
    That's from bottom of page 1 of the foreword. The graph of net payments over time on p18 is also good.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927
    Just another Trump lie.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,495
    edited March 2018

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,847

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
    Eisenhower and our adventure in the Suez canal might be the last time a US President failed to support us publicly.

    I think we're used to very pro UK Presidents in recent times, such as Reagan and Weinberger offering to loan us an Aircraft Carrier during the Falklands.
    Don't get too excited. It was only the USS Iwo Jima not a Nimitz CVN.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,927

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
    Is it possible that what we are seeing here is evidence that the U.K. is no longer routinely sharing sensitive intelligence with the US because of a fear that to do so might represent a security risk (or at least only sharing on condition that it isn’t shown to the White House)? See previous instances post terrorist incidents. After all in this sort of situation you wouldn’t expect governments to automatically accept the analysis of others without doing their own assessment. However the US would normally have almost exactly the same access as the U.K. and would therefore usually be expected to draw their own conclusions. However if we are not sharing intelligence with the White House then they could be completely in the dark.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,254

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
    Eisenhower and our adventure in the Suez canal might be the last time a US President failed to support us publicly.

    I think we're used to very pro UK Presidents in recent times, such as Reagan and Weinberger offering to loan us an Aircraft Carrier during the Falklands.
    More recently than Suez, Wilson refused to get involved with America's little Vietnam adventure.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941

    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

    Come on give Trump a chance to weigh all the evidence before coming to a well thought out rational response - this is, of course, what he is known for.
This discussion has been closed.