Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year
if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["FnIsA"]={},window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].embedDeltas={"100":427,"200":400,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-FnIsA"),window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("FnIsA"==b)window.datawrapper["FnIsA"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"});
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
You will note that I have no code for swings to the SNP. None was needed. As can be seen from the map, the story was one of carnage for them, with 10% swings in favour of both the Conservatives and Labour quite routine. Labour benefited in the Central Belt while elsewhere the Conservatives dominated in Scotland. The SNP need to work out how to stop the rot.
Is why some of us don't regard 2017 as an unmitigated disaster for the Tories.....
https://qz.com/1220847/what-trumps-tariff-trade-war-could-mean-for-you-higher-prices-layoffs-and-economic-nosedives/
Surprised to see Labour performing well in South West.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
I think the next election, if it’s to be in 2022, will be fought on very different issues to that in 2017. Brexit will be done, the Conservatives, LDs and probably Labour will have new leaders, there is likely to be a recession at some point.
'Brexit will be done' only in the sense that it will almost certainly have happened; in terms of the politics of its effects, it will be very much a live issue, I suspect.
Will the Tories and Labour have new leaders ? Far from a certainty...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/schwarzenegger-planning-to-sue-oil-companies-for-knowingly-killing-people-all-over-the-world’/
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/12/mercedes-flat-out-catalunya-turn-nine/
And people will remember losses more than gains.
For that reason, I suspect Brexit will still - in a number of constituencies - be a hotbutton issue in 2022.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43380893
Whereas Britain would welcome the loss of its own industry. #Things we could learn from America.
I'd be surprised if Labour will be running a campaign to rejoin the EU, although the Lib Dems might.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43380212
Gordon was reasonably remain according to Hanretty, to come from 4th there was staggering
It will remain an issue though, as rather like the loathing of the Tories in Scotland and industrial areas in England and Wales generated by Thacherism, whole chunks of the electorate will be lost to the Tories for a generation, possibly forever.
@AlastairMeeks has done some fantastic maps and a great article, and one to be referred back to. It does still seem remarkable that Corbynism took 30% of the vote in places like leafy Harborough or Huntington. This is not just a phenomenon of a few radical students, but rather in true blue Shire England.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973444959918575616
and
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/973445840734912514
Trump, however is keeping his own counsel....
For £1bn he could probably get the thick end of 20k social houses/flats built by Housing Associations this year or next too. He should do it. The government really has to show it is about more than Brexit (and fighting economic wars with tinpot dictators).
There could be a loss due to personal vote but not enough to make the difference unless other factors intervene I'd imagine.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973360355790479361?s=21
Within minutes of Moslem terrorist attacks on the UK President Trump is Tweeting. Days after Russian attacks, nothing. Once again, he’s demonstrating that he’s the most anti-UK president in living memory. It’s amazing what leeway a Churchill bust and the right colour skin can buy you!
I do think the possibility of a sporting boycot is increasing though, but it will need a lot of co-ordination among nations if its to be effective.
I doubt very much if people who spend so much time away from the Commons (including missing a key vote to take a birthday holiday) will fare well next time. As May found out the voters don't like being taken for granted.
The key thing about Skinner has always been his dedication (although it's decreasing as he ages). The current crop of left wingers come across as shallow and self-indulgent by comparison and in a direct comparison it's hard to believe they wouldn't suffer.
That's not to say Bolsover is vulnerable just to say I think it's not quite as safe as Alistair assumed.
Might be worthy of an insightful thread from OGH himself ....
Cheltenham - Day 1
1:30 Summerville boy
2:10 Petit Mouchoir
2:50 Coo Star Sivola
3:30 Buveur D'Air
4:10 La Bague Au Roi
4:50 Jury Duty
5:30 Mister Whitaker
Doctors and nurses playing at doctors and nurses.
Greek Super League suspended after PAOK Salonika president invades pitch with gun - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43369490
There is a Russian connection as Savvidas was a member of the Russian Duma. My Greek friends are PAOK supporters and there is now a very heavy Russian influence in the club and around the area of Thessalonika. Most Greeks there are of Anatolian descent, having been resettled there in the 1920's, The Russians are seen as defenders of Greece.
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2018/01/05/new-greek-oligarchy/
If true it's fascinating and not a little worrrying.
To the original discussion I sort of feel like you've ended up at an argument that sort of agrees with my original point. If O'Mara and Pidcock were not elected for their personal vote but managed to increase the Labour vote share then Labour selecting someone like O'Mara or Pidcock is hardly likely to be a bigger negative than them replacing Skinner with someone else, it'll be a loss whoever but no more for it being someone left wing.
I think considering recent elections the idea that Labour voters are crying out for those good old centrist politicians rather than these dastardly left wingers is a little unlikely regardless of your personal opinions of left wingers.
But Skinner is a possible exception because he has been there so long and has hammered things around himself to such a degree.
(I don't think he would thank you for calling him a centrist either. Indeed the whole premise of my argument was that Labour would put a young left winger in to replace him as candidate, which is why it matters that with rare exceptions they come across as patronising and lazy idiots.)
F1: still no sign of spreads up. I may wait a few days before deciding whether to put up a final pre-season ramble.
On-topic: it's remarkable what the worst campaign in modern British political history and the media deciding "Will you keep your allotment?" is an appropriate line of questioning can do for public opinion.
The Conservatives need to be wary they don't repeat the mistake of thinking they simply need to turn up to win. Even a half-decent campaign would've given them a solid working majority.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-suggests-part-kenyan-obama-may-have-an-ancestral-dislike-of-britain-a6995826.html
Economists split between "disagree" and "disagree strongly".
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/03/19/reddit-and-the-struggle-to-detoxify-the-internet
“Does free speech mean literally anyone can say anything at any time?” Tidwell continued. “Or is it actually more conducive to the free exchange of ideas if we create a platform where women and people of color can say what they want without thousands of people screaming, ‘Fuck you, light yourself on fire, I know where you live’? If your entire answer to that very difficult question is ‘Free speech,’ then, I’m sorry, that tells me that you’re not really paying attention.”...
Most other meaningful swings could be largely explained through other means.
Lamb (D) 51 .. Saccone (R) 45
Monmouth Uni. Sample 503
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_pa_031218/
Good work on the map, thanks.
https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/973325364071141382
Corbyn is anti West and anti capitalist rather than anti UK as such, he still technically backs the Union with Scotland and Wales for example albeit in part because there are a majority of non Tory MPs in both countries
I knew three ex-miners particularly well. Two were told at school there was little point in teaching them, as they'd end up in the mine (this is late 1970s). They both became digger drivers on the surface.
The third is a much more interesting case. He used the opportunity to get trained in everything he could at the mine, and then when the closures came, he had lots of transferrable skills in everything from railway maintenance to machinery and excavator working and maintenance.
Guess which one did rather well in life, and which two have spent half their adult lives on the sick? All three are very nice men, but two were utterly let down by the system.
It is Mexican, Canadian, Chinese and EU steel he is focused on
It is also not yet certain we will get tariffs beyond those we already face on steel exports to the US, it is Mexican and Brazilian and Chinese and EU imports Trump is focused on reducing.
As stated the Secretary of State of the Trump administration strongly condemned the Russian attack this morning and promised the UK the administration's full support.
Mr. Divvie, sparks, perhaps. Not so sure about the bright part.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will start in 15 days with initial exemptions for Canada and Mexico
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W6
Basically to go back to your original argument Labour will do no worse (they'll actually do better) replacing Skinner with a left winger than a centrist when you consider what the electorate make of the failures of those politics.