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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Moving the dial. How Britain swung last year

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.
    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Although there are many who don’t realise just how similar Trumpery and Brexiteering are.

    Seriously, can anyone remember the last time a US President so conspicuously failed to support us in public? We really are in new geopolitidal waters and the U.K. is going to have to figure out what it is for, and who it’s allies are.

    This ain’t Kansas anymore.
    Eisenhower and our adventure in the Suez canal might be the last time a US President failed to support us publicly.

    I think we're used to very pro UK Presidents in recent times, such as Reagan and Weinberger offering to loan us an Aircraft Carrier during the Falklands.
    More recently than Suez, Wilson refused to get involved with America's little Vietnam adventure.
    The common view that the UK and France took opposite lessons from Suez definitely oversimplifies the reality.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

    Trump has not imposed trade sanctions on the UK, he has imposed trade sanctions on the EU, Brazil, China etc he may exempt the UK from.as he has exempted Australia from.

    Trump has just made a statement saying he will condemn Russia if it is confirmed they were responsible
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Compare trump statement to Corby yesterday....

    “The UK needs dialogue with Russia on all controversial issues. This statement was made by Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn during his speech in parliament. “We need to continue to seek a sound dialogue with Russia on all issues that our countries share, not just cutting off contacts and allowing tensions to grow,” Corbyn said.

    It is like they are singing from the same hymn sheet.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Rex Tillerson should sue Trump for unfair/constructive dismissal.
    I don't think they have such laws in the US, outside of discrimination laws.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,032

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    We can only guess.

    However if the target was shot, or stabbed, or died in a house fire, it can be put down to an accident or, given the links with organised crime that many prominent Russian figures have, an organised crime hit.

    This method of killing makes it clear that a major state has done it. Yet the Russians can still deny it was them. It also sends a message of the power of the Russian state.

    It'd be interesting to know how the other people that may have been murdered died. Might it be that Putin was getting fed up with the Russian state not getting 'credit' for the assassinations?
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    I can't think of any plausibke explanation for this other than Trump being blackmailed.
    What’s your explanation for Steve Bannon supporting the Front National?
    He's a massive racist.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,679


    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Are there any? I mean, I'm prepared to give Trump a chance to see how his approach on North Korea plays out, because at least it seems to be getting more traction than 8 years of Obama. But its a huge leap from that to saying I'm a Trumper. I find virtually every other aspect of his existence just plain objectionable.

    Brexit does not owe its existence to President Donald Trump. It may owe much more to the tin-eared efforts of "back of the queue" Obama - although All Out War suggests that George Osborne may have had a hand in that little episode.....

    Trump is meeting up with the guy who had his half brother murdered with nerve gas in Indonesia just last year, in an airport as I recall. Far from condemning such acts, he seems to not be bothered.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    You've got to stop thinking of Putin as a head of state and think of him as a mafia boss. Putin doesn't just want people dead, he wants others to fear a similar fate.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2018

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.

    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Glenn, Wilson deserves huge credit for that.

    Mr. glw, reminds me of a Star Wars Expanded Universe story. A protege of Tarkin emphasised the importance of ruling not through force, but through the threat of force (a doctrine that was also applied by the Roman Empire at its height, and the Moghal Emperor Akbar when he went on a perambulation with 60,000 soldiers or so to remind the locals just who the boss was).
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

    Trump has not imposed trade sanctions on the UK, he has imposed trade sanctions on the EU, Brazil, China etc he may exempt the UK from.as he has exempted Australia from.

    Trump has just made a statement saying he will condemn Russia if it is confirmed they were responsible
    "We will condemn Russia or whoever..."

    Yeah, right.
    Sounds real concerned.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

    Trump has not imposed trade sanctions on the UK, he has imposed trade sanctions on the EU, Brazil, China etc he may exempt the UK from.as he has exempted Australia from.

    Trump has just made a statement saying he will condemn Russia if it is confirmed they were responsible
    Sorry, but you lost credibility on this subject earlier by saying that Canadian and Mexican steel were his primary targets. Also, of course Trump should condemn Russia, why would he not - what hold do they have over him?
    I suggest you stop digging.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W6
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Mr. Glenn, Wilson deserves huge credit for that.

    Mr. glw, reminds me of a Star Wars Expanded Universe story. A protege of Tarkin emphasised the importance of ruling not through force, but through the threat of force (a doctrine that was also applied by the Roman Empire at its height, and the Moghal Emperor Akbar when he went on a perambulation with 60,000 soldiers or so to remind the locals just who the boss was).

    Exactly. It's like Putin talking up his nuclear ramjet powered missile, it's a bonkers idea, but it sends a message. "I'm really crazy and dangerous. Don't mess with me."
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    As I said below, "nice little country you've got there..."
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    As I said below, "nice little country you've got there..."
    Before we get too excited, they failed. So, malevolent but incompetent. It's not a great look for a supervillain.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    How very Jeremy Corbyn.

    But Trump gets a free pass from the Brexit loons because he put a Churchill bust in the Oval Office. Imagine if Barack Obama had imposed trade sanctions on the UK and then failed to condemn a Russian attack on British soil. There would have been uproar.

    There is no clear evidence yet Trump will not exempt us from trade sanctions as he has done with Australia and unlike Obama who said we would be 'at the back of the queue' for any trade deal post Brexit Trump has said we will be at the front.

    Trump has also appointed Mike Pompeo as his new Secretary of State who has a history of a tough anti Kremlin line and even Trump himself has said the US will condemn Russia if proved they were responsible for te attack, even May has said it was 'likely' they were responsible but not as yet confirmed

    Of course. And there are no American tanks in Baghdad.

    The Russians launch an attack on British soil. The US president has yet to speak to our PM about it, having recently imposed trade sanctions on the UK. If Obama had acted in the same way there would have been uproar.

    Trump has not imposed trade sanctions on the UK, he has imposed trade sanctions on the EU, Brazil, China etc he may exempt the UK from.as he has exempted Australia from.

    Trump has just made a statement saying he will condemn Russia if it is confirmed they were responsible
    Sorry, but you lost credibility on this subject earlier by saying that Canadian and Mexican steel were his primary targets. Also, of course Trump should condemn Russia, why would he not - what hold do they have over him?
    I suggest you stop digging.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tariffs/trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs-exempt-canada-mexico-idUSKCN1GK2W6
    And China and Brazil and the EU and as I also said Mexico and Canada have only had a temporary reprieve while he tries to renegotiate NAFTA in the ways he wants, if not they get further tariffs too.

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    edited March 2018

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
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    MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48
    Elliot said:

    Rex Tillerson should sue Trump for unfair/constructive dismissal.
    I don't think they have such laws in the US, outside of discrimination laws.
    Most employment contracts in the US are 'at will'
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.

    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
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    MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    And all would be Russian traitors - we'll get you, even after you think you're safe, and we'll get all of your family.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    John_M said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    As I said below, "nice little country you've got there..."
    Before we get too excited, they failed. So, malevolent but incompetent. It's not a great look for a supervillain.
    Although the goal could be a slow and painful death, like with Litvinenko and polonium, in which case its too early to say if the assassination was incompetent.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Foxy said:


    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Are there any? I mean, I'm prepared to give Trump a chance to see how his approach on North Korea plays out, because at least it seems to be getting more traction than 8 years of Obama. But its a huge leap from that to saying I'm a Trumper. I find virtually every other aspect of his existence just plain objectionable.

    Brexit does not owe its existence to President Donald Trump. It may owe much more to the tin-eared efforts of "back of the queue" Obama - although All Out War suggests that George Osborne may have had a hand in that little episode.....

    Trump is meeting up with the guy who had his half brother murdered with nerve gas in Indonesia just last year, in an airport as I recall. Far from condemning such acts, he seems to not be bothered.
    OR... he's trying to rein North Korea back into civilized socieity, so that kinda shit ends.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    RT is making a great deal of Trump and Huckabee’s failure to support May.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
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    MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48
    edited March 2018

    This method of killing makes it clear that a major state has done it. Yet the Russians can still deny it was them. It also sends a message of the power of the Russian state.

    It'd be interesting to know how the other people that may have been murdered died. Might it be that Putin was getting fed up with the Russian state not getting 'credit' for the assassinations?

    The important thing is that it 'implausible deniability' - they can deny it and effectively say "prove it was me", while at the same time signaling to everyone, "look it was us", as who else knows how to make Novichoks?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Walker, no, it isn't. That's the fiction (along with Empire 2.0) that some Remain types try to attribute to the voters' decision.

    We're leaving the EU. We aren't abandoning diplomatic relations with member states.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,002
    MTimT2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    And all would be Russian traitors - we'll get you, even after you think you're safe, and we'll get all of your family.
    The Chinese Emperors, or at least some of them, adopted a similar policy. Went out as far as third or fourth cousins if memory serves.
    Whereas, again if memory serves, Philby, Burgess and Maclean lived out their lives in Moscow without harassment from MI6 or whoever. Don’t know about more recent traitors.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074

    Mr. Walker, no, it isn't. That's the fiction (along with Empire 2.0) that some Remain types try to attribute to the voters' decision.

    We're leaving the EU. We aren't abandoning diplomatic relations with member states.

    We're tearing up 45 years of treaties and demanding a replacement that gives us the exact same benefits on our own terms because we want to feel special.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.

    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
    "shit all over the neighbours"? Now who is losing it?
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    RT is making a great deal of Trump and Huckabee’s failure to support May.

    I wonder whether they conspired with Trump to create a situation where the UK had to either be a walkover or invoke NATO for help, just so Trump can refuse to help. Then Tillerson didn't play along.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited March 2018

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.

    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
    You're the one being obtuse. Power, soft or otherwise, is not solely mediated via the EU, which, let us remind ourselves, only came into being post-Maastricht. It's a johnny-come-lately.

    NATO is still the formal structure for the defence of Europe and the Atlantic. Intelligence sharing arrangments via Club de Berne date back to '71 and less formally before then. The UKUSA treaty dates to 1948. We have bilateral security treaties with France, who are probably our only military peers (though that's not saying much nowadays).

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna; we still have shared interests with our fellow regional powers; France, Germany, Italy and to a lesser extent, Spain and Poland.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    JonathanD said:

    John_M said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    As I said below, "nice little country you've got there..."
    Before we get too excited, they failed. So, malevolent but incompetent. It's not a great look for a supervillain.
    Although the goal could be a slow and painful death, like with Litvinenko and polonium, in which case its too early to say if the assassination was incompetent.
    It took Litvinenko three weeks to die, albeit with a different method of poisoning.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    King Cole, I have vague memories in Three Kingdoms of relatives being exterminated to the ninth degree. Not precisely sure what that means, but I'd be nervous if my cousin cocked something up.

    Mr. Glenn, thanks for letting us know your own unique perspective on those voters who had the temerity to disagree with you.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Walker, no, it isn't. That's the fiction (along with Empire 2.0) that some Remain types try to attribute to the voters' decision.

    We're leaving the EU. We aren't abandoning diplomatic relations with member states.

    We're tearing up 45 years of treaties and demanding a replacement that gives us the exact same benefits on our own terms because we want to feel special.
    So you are saying freedom of movement and political union aren't benefits?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856

    Mr. Walker, no, it isn't. That's the fiction (along with Empire 2.0) that some Remain types try to attribute to the voters' decision.

    We're leaving the EU. We aren't abandoning diplomatic relations with member states.

    I haven’t mentioned Empire 2.0.
    I haven’t suggested we are abandoning diplomatic relations.

    I am suggesting that Brexit - whether you care to admit it or not - is a rupture in the Western alliance. I’m sure there are faults on both sides, in terms of both the reasons and the way negotiations are being carried out - but certainly the various comments offered up by Johnson et al (not so much May since her early days) often seem calculated to offend - presumably they are somehow meant for internal U.K. consumption - but they are reported widely, consumed by both the governments and the public of our allies - and are undoubtedly damaging.

    Trade, security, and diplomacy cannot be so easily separated. Would that they could be. That really would be having your cake and eating it.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/faisalislam/status/973571109357588480

    But we all know that is false and it is actually the global illuminati controlled via shadowy companies in Finchley Road ;-)
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Trump and Corbyn are both what the FSB would describe as "assets".
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sandpit said:

    JonathanD said:

    John_M said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Question....why is putin so keen on nerve agents to knock off former agents? Why not just have them shot, stabbed or abducted and tortured etc?

    Is it to cause as big a scene as possible? Maximum suffering of the victim?

    Why kill a retired, pardoned spy at all unless you want to send a message ?
    Yep, it's to send a message. 'we can get you, and we can kill you', and a big message to the UK government too.
    As I said below, "nice little country you've got there..."
    Before we get too excited, they failed. So, malevolent but incompetent. It's not a great look for a supervillain.
    Although the goal could be a slow and painful death, like with Litvinenko and polonium, in which case its too early to say if the assassination was incompetent.
    It took Litvinenko three weeks to die, albeit with a different method of poisoning.
    I really hope Putin gets a nasty form of bone cancer.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    Elliot said:

    Mr. Walker, no, it isn't. That's the fiction (along with Empire 2.0) that some Remain types try to attribute to the voters' decision.

    We're leaving the EU. We aren't abandoning diplomatic relations with member states.

    We're tearing up 45 years of treaties and demanding a replacement that gives us the exact same benefits on our own terms because we want to feel special.
    So you are saying freedom of movement and political union aren't benefits?
    No, I was parodying the stated position of the Brexiteers.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's poignant to see Leavers, who sought this type of atomised relationship with Britain's erstwhile closest partners, lament the consequences of their actions.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.

    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
    You're the one being obtuse. Power, soft or otherwise, is not solely mediated via the EU, which, let us remind ourselves, only came into being post-Maastricht. It's a johnny-come-lately.

    NATO is still the formal structure for the defence of Europe and the Atlantic. Intelligence sharing arrangments via Club de Berne date back to '71 and less formally before then. The UKUSA treaty dates to 1948. We have bilateral security treaties with France, who are probably our only military peers (though that's not saying much nowadays).

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna; we still have shared interests with our fellow regional powers; France, Germany, Italy and to a lesser extent, Spain and Poland.
    Once again, I am talking about soft power.
    The ability to influence without needing to exercise a defence treaty.

    Next you’ll be reminding us solemnly that the U.K. retains its seat on the security council.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700
    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    In the aftermath of the Paris atrocities when the hunt switched to Belgium, the Brussels Police were getting much more from the British than their own security services....
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    It's poignant to see Leavers, who sought this type of atomised relationship with Britain's erstwhile closest partners, lament the consequences of their actions.

    Alastair Meeks finding every news story an excuse to attack Leavers. How surprising.

    NATO is the defence and security partnership. Norway has always been far more likely to be on our side than Ireland when it comes to foreign policy.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    edited March 2018
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.

    (The point about the pace of it is well made however.)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    edited March 2018

    It's poignant to see Leavers, who sought this type of atomised relationship with Britain's erstwhile closest partners, lament the consequences of their actions.

    Macron condemned Putin yesterday regardless of the Brexit vote, the Leave vote was nothing to do with the threat from Russia where NATO is pivotal
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    I said that yesterday right after Corbyn spoke. He's a very useful idiot.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/973240048207491072
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    In the aftermath of the Paris atrocities when the hunt switched to Belgium, the Brussels Police were getting much more from the British than their own security services....
    And undoubtedly we will continue to do so into the future, supporting our friends around the world who wish to make use of our expertise in their hour of need.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,679

    Foxy said:


    To be fair, I don’t think there are many Trumpers on here.

    Are there any? I mean, I'm prepared to give Trump a chance to see how his approach on North Korea plays out, because at least it seems to be getting more traction than 8 years of Obama. But its a huge leap from that to saying I'm a Trumper. I find virtually every other aspect of his existence just plain objectionable.

    Brexit does not owe its existence to President Donald Trump. It may owe much more to the tin-eared efforts of "back of the queue" Obama - although All Out War suggests that George Osborne may have had a hand in that little episode.....

    Trump is meeting up with the guy who had his half brother murdered with nerve gas in Indonesia just last year, in an airport as I recall. Far from condemning such acts, he seems to not be bothered.
    OR... he's trying to rein North Korea back into civilized socieity, so that kinda shit ends.
    So, talking to Korean nerve gas murderers is fine and dandy, but we should shun Russian ones?
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Elliot said:

    It's poignant to see Leavers, who sought this type of atomised relationship with Britain's erstwhile closest partners, lament the consequences of their actions.

    Alastair Meeks finding every news story an excuse to attack Leavers. How surprising.

    NATO is the defence and security partnership. Norway has always been far more likely to be on our side than Ireland when it comes to foreign policy.
    I'd also add the word "Exocet".
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    The UK is Europe's intelligence superpower. No other European state has anything like our SIGINT capabilities. Our cooperation with European ISs predates the EU and will likely postdate it too.
    In the aftermath of the Paris atrocities when the hunt switched to Belgium, the Brussels Police were getting much more from the British than their own security services....

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
    You're the one being obtuse. Power, soft or otherwise, is not solely mediated via the EU, which, let us remind ourselves, only came into being post-Maastricht. It's a johnny-come-lately.



    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna; we still have shared interests with our fellow regional powers; France, Germany, Italy and to a lesser extent, Spain and Poland.
    Once again, I am talking about soft power.
    The ability to influence without needing to exercise a defence treaty.

    Next you’ll be reminding us solemnly that the U.K. retains its seat on the security council.
    Of course, your contention will be that our soft power can only be directed via our membership of the EU. Fair enough. Let me go and drape myself in sackcloth and ashes.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Would you describe the EU as a 'healthy democracy'?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    edited March 2018
    Meanwhile, in the People's Party:
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/973575216466145281

    Edited extra bit: apologies for double-tweeting, but:
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/973575155988488192
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    This is a new idea I came up with about a week ago.

    Swing bellwethers, 2010 to 2017 inclusive:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#gid=0

    It shows that Bedford has most reliably replicated the national swing over the last three elections. When it comes to matching the national shares in 2017, Watford is at the top of the list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zEh52JSfER5PaVZdMAgdHwgB3fPveZpnED5Hdp0kGfI/edit#
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,308
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    edited March 2018
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.

    Of course we will retain those formal arrangements. But formal agreements - even NATO - ultimately rely on sentiment and willing.

    Brexit - and certainly the way we have gone about it - is about destroying goodwill and trust.
    Again, very similar to Trumpism in that respect.
    The UK.
    In the aftermath of the Paris atrocities when the hunt switched to Belgium, the Brussels Police were getting much more from the British than their own security services....

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Walker, both the UK and EU, before this nerve agent incident occurred, both said they wanted to maintain intelligence and security co-operation.

    Like all the Brexiters, you’re failing to account for the critical importance soft power.
    'Like all the Brexiteers'. Jesus.
    Did you actually read my post?

    Brexiters seem to think they can shit all over the neighbours while pronouncing loudly about how wonderful GCHQ is.

    Soft power that ain’t.
    Once again, I am talking about soft power.
    The ability to influence without needing to exercise a defence treaty.

    Next you’ll be reminding us solemnly that the U.K. retains its seat on the security council.
    Of course, your contention will be that our soft power can only be directed via our membership of the EU. Fair enough. Let me go and drape myself in sackcloth and ashes.
    I’m not sure where you get that contention, except in the straw man you built yourself in one of your posts.

    However: the EU exists, for better or worse. Leaving it means leaving one of the primary channels of influence on the continent, and leaving also a vehicle for policy co-ordination.

    Indeed, this is why Putin supports Brexit.
    *Because it divides Europe*.

    I am not sure why stating this should be controversial, except that Brexiters just hate to own up to the consequences of their vote. Actually, you are one of the exceptions, at least when it comes to the economics of Brexit.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,723
    Really well done map, Alastair and Viewcode. We can see:

    - Collapse of the UK vote in England and SNP vote in Scotland.
    - Most seats in Scotland saw big swings to Labour or Conservative
    - Seats in England mostly saw smaller swings to Labour or Conservative.

    My guess is that tactical voting was stronger in Scotland than in England, where I suggest there was movement to BOTH Conservative and Labour.

    And on the other topic, Trump sacked Tillerson AFTER he showed support for the UK over Russian sponsored acts of terrorism (lets call it what it was). Correlation does not necessarily mean causation blah blah.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
    No as it is perfectly possible to be English, Welsh or Scottish and British.

    It is called the United Kingdom for a reason
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    Plato was a nutjob.
    At least Hunchman only posts occasionally.
    Finchley Road wouldn’t be a joke if it was the subject of every second post.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
    No as it is perfectly possible to be English, Welsh or Scottish and British.

    It is called the United Kingdom for a reason
    Then it's perfectly possible to be English and British and European. It's called the European Union for a reason.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
    Not many "Europeans"......
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Then it's perfectly possible to be English and British and European. It's called the European Union for a reason.

    Sure, but they are a small minority of the population.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
    No as it is perfectly possible to be English, Welsh or Scottish and British.

    It is called the United Kingdom for a reason
    Then it's perfectly possible to be English and British and European. It's called the European Union for a reason.
    Of course if a majority support it but in 2016 they made clear they no longer do, at least in terms of the EU rather than Europe
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    A lawyer who led prosecutions against a child sex abuse ring in Telford has said those cases were the "tip of the iceberg".

    Former chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal, who also oversaw similar high-profile cases in Rochdale, said he knew "more would come out".A lawyer who led prosecutions against a child sex abuse ring in Telford has said those cases were the "tip of the iceberg".

    Former chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal, who also oversaw similar high-profile cases in Rochdale, said he knew "more would come out".
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    That horse has bolted....but then it was never that keen on the stable:
    The English don't seem so keen on the British stable either these days. Should we be reading the last rites for the union?

    image
    https://visual.ons.gov.uk/ethnicity-2011-census/
    No as it is perfectly possible to be English, Welsh or Scottish and British.

    It is called the United Kingdom for a reason
    Then it's perfectly possible to be English and British and European. It's called the European Union for a reason.
    Yes. But only for a minority. Why do you think that is?
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,856
    I see Aaron Banks is implying that Skripal was poisoned to help the Tories in the polls.

    Relevant:
    https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/973551276335288320
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Glenn, Labour offered devolution to Wales and Scotland, and nothing to England except dismemberment. The Coalition and the Conservatives have since offered nothing to England except feeble mayors (not remotely the equal of a parliament).

    It's entirely natural and right that English nationalism is rising when devolved powers are constantly rising for Wales and Scotland and England doesn't even have a parliament.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700
    edited March 2018
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Spy poisoning: Novichok inventor says hundreds could be at risk for years

    The scientist who helped develop the nerve agent used to poison Sergei Skripal says it is designed to cause "irreparable" damage."

    https://news.sky.com/story/spy-poisoning-novichok-inventor-says-hundreds-could-be-at-risk-for-years-11287880
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Urquhart, that is good news. If people want to fritter their own money on homeopathy, that's fine, but it shouldn't be funded by the taxpayer.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Mr. Glenn, Labour offered devolution to Wales and Scotland, and nothing to England except dismemberment. The Coalition and the Conservatives have since offered nothing to England except feeble mayors (not remotely the equal of a parliament).

    It's entirely natural and right that English nationalism is rising when devolved powers are constantly rising for Wales and Scotland and England doesn't even have a parliament.

    LOL, I bet you'd lose affection for an "English Parliament" as soon as Labour won an election for it.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    I see Aaron Banks is implying that Skripal was poisoned to help the Tories in the polls.

    Relevant:
    https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/973551276335288320

    The Alt Right and Far Left have always hated liberalism, rule of law and democracy.
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    MTimT2MTimT2 Posts: 48

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074
    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FF43 said:

    Really well done map, Alastair and Viewcode. We can see:

    - Collapse of the UK vote in England and SNP vote in Scotland.
    - Most seats in Scotland saw big swings to Labour or Conservative
    - Seats in England mostly saw smaller swings to Labour or Conservative.

    My guess is that tactical voting was stronger in Scotland than in England, where I suggest there was movement to BOTH Conservative and Labour.

    And on the other topic, Trump sacked Tillerson AFTER he showed support for the UK over Russian sponsored acts of terrorism (lets call it what it was). Correlation does not necessarily mean causation blah blah.

    I think there really must have been a MASSIVE transfer of Labour votes over to the Tories in Scotland (compensated for by Labour gaining back a tranche of SNP voters).

    Ochil & South Perthshire is one of the all-time biggest Lab->Con swings of any election in any constituency ever, bigger even than most of the swings in Labour's landslide defeats.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Good news....

    A major centre of homeopathy will no longer be able to spend NHS money on the controversial practice.
    The Royal London Hospital for Integrated Medicine - formerly the Royal London Homeopathic Hospital - will stop providing NHS-funded homeopathic remedies in April.

    Excellent news. It gave a veneer of credibility to a crock of (highly diluted) shit.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,679
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    And we shall, at the next General Election, where, no doubt the 'Rejoin EU' party will win by a landslide.....
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,074

    MTimT2 said:

    Elliot said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Nothing much has changed since the Congress of Vienna

    Absurd. We now have 60 years of a common legal acquis and shared political institutions. European integration is real.
    I think your point is tangential to my own. That integration is driven by, or paced, by the same countries that have sat at the major conferences going back to Vienna. If European integration continues, it'll be because France and Germany want it, not Slovakia or Malta.
    It has its own momentum. As we are seeing, even when a major country ostensibly doesn't want it, there is no escape.
    Democracy be damned.
    A healthy democracy is able to respond to the constraints of reality, as we will do.
    Is that a quote from 1984? Seems like a classic example of doublespeak. Translation: A healthy democracy is able to respond to the government ignoring the ballot box.
    The remit of the ballot box doesn't extend to 27 of our neighbours. The electorate were falsely told we held all the cards, and will need to hold those to account who misled them.
    And we shall, at the next General Election, where, no doubt the 'Rejoin EU' party will win by a landslide.....
    The Conservatives will merely change their policy on the EU, not their name.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,700
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Urquhart, it's about the idea of the Greatness of Russia, tweaking opponents' noses. Cyberwarfare, the odd assassination, military moves in the Middle East. He's an adept strategist, not entirely dissimilar to Septimius Severus.

    Mr. Walker, ah. So it destroys sentiment and goodwill if we have serious concerns over many years about the EU, and these are not addressed by an attempted negotiation, and then vote to leave, but the EU refusing to take our concerns seriously (or democracy in other countries, vis-a-vis Lisbon/the Constitution) is absolutely fine. Rightyho.

    I don’t think you’re getting the point.
    Brexit seems to be inherently about telling our allies to get stuffed. And even if it wasn’t, that’s the way Johnson et al have been playing it - egged on by their baying supporters in the press.

    As for the rest, you seem to be responding to a point I haven’t made, although It’s difficult to tell. But if you’re suggesting that the EU has somehow trampled all over a pleading UK government, then you are painting a narrative of victimisation which I don’t think is accurate.
    If anyone is trying to tell our allies to 'get stuffed' it is diehard Remainers who condemn the President of the US whatever he does and who think trade deals with Australia and New Zealand and India etc will be without consequence.

    May has made quite clear she wants a strong relationship with the EU and a strong EU regardless of Brexit
    I see we have found the one PB Trumper.
    Plato says Hi!

    The fact unlike diehard Remainers I want a solid relationship with the US administration does not make me a Trumper but I am not anti Trump either
    That would be the Plato many mocked when she said that the polling was not showing the complete picture and Trump was going to win? That Plato?
    I don't think Plato did predict a Trump win, though she was a blatent fangirl. On the day before the POTUS election she was pressed to make a forecast, but declined.
    Surely some handwaving was performed?
This discussion has been closed.